I'm sure he had so much fun getting it.
https://preview.redd.it/lr8726wvaqyc1.png?width=252&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0959f0f6ada9203dc3482e01c8f0c8df59b5c8b9
I thought items like this are there as a flex and I made stupidly rare for that every reason. You’ve had an equal chance to receive it on every kill and just haven’t got it.
Some people are lucky and get the flex and some are not. It’s a game and you’ve chosen to kill 14k, and could have stopped at any point as you don’t have to have anything.
Personally if I went this dry I’d evaluate if continuing was even worth it and if not just stop and go do something else that I actually enjoyed
It will always be profitable, just not worth doing on a main. You get the same/more money with lower level money makers. You get significantly more with high level money makers that you can typically do on a main.
Nothing is "worth" doing on a main outside of duo nex/high invo solo toa and currently colosseum.
*Edit* this comment is to directly point out the flaw in the one I responded to, I'm not saying the other content isn't worth doing but that the point OP made is stupid because all content is worth doing on a main as you have the choice.
Giant mole is 600k an hour, less in dharoks and if you have bowfa/crystal armour you can do ranged only zulrah which is also more profitable than mole.
Edit: was wrong about GP rates at mole
With max stats and str bonus it's 1.1m in dharoks at 50 kills an hour. Maybe 1.5 with tbow and cannon max efficiency. For a mid level account in dharoks it'd be around 600k. But yeah didn't realise how much mole skin/claws were atm. Probably about equal to zulrah gp wise. Yes if you want pure GP/hr it's less effort, but if that's all your focused on and you're rich enough to have end game gear to reach those rates you may as well go do nex with a small team
If you wanna be bored out of your mind sure. Learning zulrah is like learning to ride a bike, and then learning how to do tricks, you don’t forget how to do it.
That was me when WoW Classic came. I wanted pre-raid BiS as fast as possible and was trying to farm gladiator chain forever. Eventually I just quit after going 2x more dry than any streamer whom complained about being crazy dry on it.
I guess I’m in the first category 🤔
https://preview.redd.it/6g54ogza9ryc1.png?width=516&format=png&auto=webp&s=703332c4ce0e1cc4c4fd199a07fc353aff2225b7
This is what's being proposed. A gradual increase in droprate after going 2x on an item that really only affects the most unlucky bastards. Doubt it'll make the game boring for anyone.
You've got this tagged as humor, but plenty of people don't seem to grasp the extent, so I figured we might need some clarification.
i'm ngl this doesn't even seem effective enough? only cuts by half the number of people that go 3x dry? this is what people are so strongly opposing? do they even have brain cells?
While you might still go pretty dry, you'll at least have the knowledge that every kc is getting you closer to the drop. But yeah, I don't really understand why some people dislike it so much.
They probably dislike it on principle. In their mind, even a 0.01% increase after 10x the drop rate would be going too far, because it's not about the actual numbers for them. If it's anything other than an independent dice roll, they don't like it.
That's, of course, assuming they're not just being vindictive.
I'm pretty convinced it's the latter. If they already have the drop, it's pulling up the ladder behind them. If they don't have the drop, it's the crab in a bucket mentality. Childish attitude either way, as it's not like this would going to suddenly flood the market with extra uniques or do anything that would actually tangibly affect them.
I'm opposed to it because of what the person above you wrote. It's the principle of having non-static rates and that, to me, goes against the "basic" drop rate system mostly used in OSRS.
Same reason I think Vorkath head guaranteed at 50 kills is bullshit.
I'm not vindictive. I had this opinion before and after I went 4x dry in CG, and I hated doing CG in general. There's multiple cases of me getting lucky and going dry on grinds in general, and that's part of the game to me.
It feels like there's no winning here, because people like you will always default into the two same ill fated "gotcha" arguments. "You couldn't get it yourself and therefore you don't wish for other people to get it" or "You have the drop and don't want people catching up to you".
The reason I am for it is because there is no limit on how far the dry tail of the distribution curve can extend. And there is no reason for that. We are mostly working adults with families at this point and this is supposed to be something we do for fun. Truncating that curve for the VERY small population of players who reach those levels will have no impact on the game overall. It would be such a minor increase in the number of items in the game that if jagex secretly implemented it today it would take us years before we ever figured it out (if ever)
You would still have players going 3x, 4x, 5x drop rate. We would still see the same "I'm so stupidly dry" posts.
ETA: I agree with you that the accusations that players against the change are just being spiteful are dumb and not progressing the discussion.
You've gotten lucky and unlucky. But this wouldnt stop that. You'd still get unlucky. You could still even go 4X at CG! What it stops is you going 7X-10X.
On another post I tried to explain the macro vs micro parts of the statistics at play here and got downvoted to oblivion. People can't grasp that most players will never be impacted by this but the very small few who are will be significantly impacted by it. This isn't impacting anyone who falls within 2 or 3 standard deviations, nor anyone at all on the "lucky" side of the curve. This would strictly truncate the very tail end of the dry side of the curve.
They all seem to believe that going dry at A nexessarily means you get spooned at B so it's a fair balance. They don't grasp that that ISNT how this works AND even if it was getting a shaman mask (for example) in 1kc doesn't make up for being 5x dry on a bofa.
I'm all for it, because not all rng is the same.
Rendi talked once in a video about trying to sort it out, but chalked it up to being too difficult ever for him... But every account has a different seed (like randomly generated worlds in other games) than affects that account's rolls at different bosses differently than any other account.
So the few who got stuck with the allocation of going 8x the drop rate at any given piece of content, now only have to go 5x. Which just sounds like QOL to me.
No, it's a working theory.
It's possible it's tied to account - possible also that it's tied any of the following:
Current time (tic), server, world, and a myriad of other potential factors.
The problem is that most people when doing routine content keep most of these the same when grinding (time they play, world they play on, etc) so it's impossible for even the most dedicated players to try and work out how RNG is seeded.
It can be done in some instances. I know there are speedrun categories for fastest random events times - unofficial of course - but they use RNG manipulation to force random events as early as a few minutes into an accounts life. You can look it up, I don't have the link currently - apologies.
I would counter that I don't think anyone should vote. This is integrity if you asks me. 99% of players not impacted but the 1% who will be it's massive and should be up to players to decide.
Edit: typo
Remember, this is 2007scape, there's a bunch of people here who put close to if not more than a full time job into this game a week and base their idea of how progression should be balanced on their dozens of hours a week worth of playtime.
Most people in this sub haven't put that much time into the game. Most people on this sub hear 40 hour grind and don't realize what 40 hours of efficient bossing actually looks like. They don't realize this doesn't mean spend 40 hours in game and you will be at rate. It means stop the clock every time you aren't in the encounter, are at the bank, type on your keyboard, go adk for a minute, or even just aren't being 100% efficient even while engaging with the boss. That 40 hours could be 2-3x that long in actual game play time because we are all humans and not robots. Now imagine doing that 3, 4, 5x drop rate.
If you look at the chart, it suggests that 100% of people should have the drop by 5x the drop rate, compared to some people needing to go 7x the drop rate if there was no mitigation. THAT'S what bad luck mitigation does, it removes the absolute highest outliers.
If jagex implemented this right now and didn't tell us we wouldn't figure it out for years, if ever. The outliers would still be there at 5x vs 7x and they are so insignificant that the average wouldn't move enough to shift the 1/1000 calculated rates.
2k kc is still 5x so the proposal would still have a few (but less than today) extremely unlucky folks in that range. But that 3k dry guy wouldn't exist.
But yes I 100% agree both as a player and as a redditor who is tired of the extreme dry posts. :)
Nothing. I'm just pointing out that people look at bad Iuck mitigation all wrong. It's not about any individual player, or the majority of players. it's about the outliers in the aggregate.
i know that, my point is that i think it should kick in earlier than on the image, tapering off much faster so that 3x dry on big-ticket items would be very rare (on the order of 1% instead of 3%) and practically guaranteed by 4x. but that is my opinion, influenced by knowing a few people who have gone to 1200kc at cg and seeing how it has warped their mind and body into a husk of what they were before (half-joking)
they do not understand the proposal or have gone themselves so dry they want others to go also, tale as old as a time. Even if the BLM was implemented from the beginning, it would've never affected me so far and I still 100% support it.
Everyone opposing it just doesn't even understand what's happening. This basically just prevents people from going 4/5/6/7x dry. Such a small percentage of players would even go that dry on an item and a fraction of that fraction even make it to that high of kc anyways.
Don't worry though the guy with 60 efficient hours bossed thinks this is "changing the very essence of OSRS" .
It’s players selling their own gold and bots who are opposed to adjusting the laughable casino-style drops. Nobody else is affected enough to have a strong negative opinion on it.
There’s plenty of people who have stronge negative opinions about it and basically every response is “just play a main and use ge” which completely ignores that mains go dry, or “quit asking for easy scape” which makes no sense.
You should definitely post this image around so much more; there are so many people in this sub crying about bad luck mitigation without even understanding how little this will affect the general playerbase.
I've made some posts discussing it already, they don't show this exact graph, but highlight the same point. Seeing as those two posts kinda instigated this whole flood of bad luck mitigation posts, I'm keeping to the comments for now 😅
Ngl I haven’t paid much attention to the solutions. I’m a main so I’ve been just making memes most the time about bad luck mitigation. But in reality this looks good. I’m not going to be out here lobbying for it but if this gets proposed I don’t see a reason to say no. It 1000% beats the stupid dt2 drop mechanics, I’d much rather see this and seems to be a solid solution.
These mid game players really want to have a say in a game they have 5 days played in. Have an opinion about something they don’t understand is so funny.
i think our issue is there there's a lot of GEscapers who have never actually aimed for a drop. they grind for a while and buy the thing, bots will supply it for them. the fact that their argument always ends up "just buy it lol" proves this (along with the fact that they just hate ironmen, i guess?), they only play to buy their equipment.
tbf does anyone know what it means right now? i feel like everyone is arguing about it being good/bad based just in their particular idea of what it would look like. until/unless jagex gives us their idea of how to implement it we’re just talking past each other. i feel like a lot of the people opposed to it think everything is going to be like vorkath head at 50kc.
have any jmods commented on this except for that one post? but that’s just one idea for how it could work.
There was an entire post with graphs and everything, with a very concrete suggestion of what it would look like, which was the trigger for these discussions in the first place. That should be the version that people discuss.
they should, but it doesn’t seem like everyone is. some people haven’t read that proposal or aren’t good at understanding math or are criticizing it in bad faith, thinking that it will have way more of an impact on the economy than it would.
i bet some people noticed the 200 threads created in response but maybe not the original post. popular stuff doesn’t stay on the top of the front page on subreddits like it would on a real forum website.
well i’m not either of those. there was one post explaining one proposal for dryness protection and 200 threads reacting and memeing it. if you missed seeing the original post you might not know the specifics of what is being (unconstructively) criticized, and it seems like a lot of people are arguing against a straw man instead of the specifics of what that one proposal put forth.
i don’t know why you want to be so rude about it. get some sleep
Is everyone going at least 2x dry? I coulda swore it was only 14% of people hit that rate, and that’s just when the proposed bad luck protection would kick in.
Crazy how there’s a group of people that think this is just handing out items. 2x dry at cox for tbow is like 700 hours on rate? 2x rate for bowfa is 140 hours. That’s still an insane amount of time to put in before it even starts to effect you!
That depends on implementation too. What if it starts at 3x? What if it's only for specific items? There's so much math to play around with to make it as minimally impactful to most players while still helping the ones who are going that dry.
And yet detractors still act like people are asking for 10x droprates on everything, it boggles the mind.
All this has taught me is that anyone who is against bad luck mitigation as it was proposed just has no idea how math and statistics work. The guy on the right would be saying the same thing if he got every drop under the drop rate, and bad luck mitigation WOULD NOT EVEN HELP WITH THAT. It only would kick in once you are over DOUBLE THE DROP RATE
Wow OP it's almost like a healthy middle ground between getting showered in loot à la Path of Exile and going three times dry on BoFA might actually work.
I know it's almost a meme to hate on Ironmen and give them the 'you chose to do this' talk every time they opened their mouths, but I think it would genuinely benefit EVERYBODY if there was a degree of bad-luck mitigation for some select items at least and only for the first time that they drop.
Anyone who tells iron men to stop complaining and deiron because of certain terrible grinds or pieces of content is just admitting they like a bot run economy. How many mains are seriously out there grinding 5000+ lizard men shamans until they get a DWH and then immediately selling it instead of keeping it for their own use? There’s so many better ways to make money in terms of both fun and profit. Like I’m sure at least one person exists but there’s a lot of items that would either be unusable or be wildly expensive in order for real people to justify the grind.
Cannonballs, blood shards, insane drop rates on tedious mobs like shamans, all of these things that irons have to basically do without would become wildly expensive to get someone to justify wasting their time in order to make money. If the people most willing to engage in all the game’s content and do all manner of ridiculous grinds are completely unwilling to engage with a part of the game, there’s probably a serious issue with that part of the game.
Well put. Mains are heavily subsidized by bots, and if they did manage to eventually nuke them all, RNG protection would explode in popularity because of how high prices would climb.
tbf, I'm reading comments from people that support mitigation that also are misinformed, thinking that this will guarantee items by 2-3x rate. Going 3x dry at shamans or cg would still be very much be a reality for a lot of people, only marginally less likely.
Ultimately it really depends on the numbers and what Jagex is trying to accomplish. Could push the numbers in any direction to move the curve anyway which they choose.
The question is... why the fuck is the DWH, the backbone of melee spec meta, 1/5k, to be soon changed to 1/3k?
Black mask is the backbone of slayer dps and it's a 1/512 of a creature that takes a fraction of the time it takes to kill a Shaman.
Yeah, not every person has 100 hours a week to throw at grinds with drop rates clearly balanced for people who spend a full time job on grinding out stuff. A lot of the arguments against bad luck mitigation rely on either flat out blatant lies or come with this bs notion that if you aren't willing to grind out quadruple the droprate worth of mobs you don't deserve the drop, as if 1/5000 droprates are somehow reasonable to begin with.
Just take cg for example. 1/400 chance. So 400 times lets say 10 minutes with everything. So 4000 minutes thats around 66 hours. For one dungeon. Thats is hard and does drain your sanity. You cant do 66 hours cg straight. Even if you can do 4 hours a day and never fail it would be 16 days. Not counting failing. So the average player would spend two and a half weeks of evening grinding. And still be dry most likely. Imagine being at 1kkc+ so you just spend 40+ days grinding the shit out of cg and still have absolute nothing to show for.
And thats just one boss. So a quarter to half a year of playing a very very small part of the game while paying for it. It wouldnt be that bad if it was fun. But cg stops being fun at a certain point.
We arent 12 anymore.
Just try to reflect that the value of time for the average playerbase changed. And yes i'm an ironman. Playing main is boring. Just farm the most gp an hour for weeks any buy everthing. Great game.
The solution for me would be an expansion of slayer tasks. Spread the tasks over all encounters through unlocks. Lower the droprate on task so you dont need to lock yourself in but can actually enjoy the game.
Remember. In a game with no players your pixels arent worth shit.
Your opinion isn't worth shit either. "We aren't 12 anymore". Bro shut up. You don't need "lock" yourself into anything. "Still have nothing to show for it" The gp? For fuck sake do irons want their own in game currencies?
"Just farm the most gp an hour for weeks..."
Okay? Irons just farm CG for weeks until they get the enhanced?
More slayer tasks? What? Lower the drop rate? For what? The basilisk jaw?
You don't like this game, go play a different one.
It’s exhausting to argue with these kids bro, no point, they want their babyscape and we just have to pray jagex has the good sense to ignore this nonsense
You just dont understand the proposal whilst simultaneously having an incredibly strong position on it just showcases you are not very bright. It is what it is my friend, go outside and eat some sand I suppose.
Even though I dislike it, I really hope jagex fixes RS3, just so these players go back to their game and stop trying to fuck up osrs.
Imagine crying about a 66h grind on osrs and feeling like you are owed an item because you hit droprate.
Yea it’s kinda weird they CHOOSE to play iron and then complain about grinds lol. And cg is one of the shorter grinds compared to endgame. So what’s next? Make tbow 3x more common? Make nex drops 1/10?
Bad luck mitigation should be added yesterday and people who don't like either don't know stats, are salty because they had to go through a horrible 3x or more dry spell or are just gambling addicts who don't know it yet
That's not at all what would happen, the proposed implementation is way too weak to get more people into that content. The people going that dry are already some of the most dedicated players in the game lol, late game doesn't spook them.
where did i ever mention it's removing the rng? making drops easier to get doesn't mean it's *removing* the rng, but it's certainly catering towards those who prefer consistency rather than genuine rng. going dry or getting spooned are both a part of that.
I’d be shocked if anyone actually likes fighting a boss when the only reason they have 3,000 kills at it is because a single item won’t drop 1 time.
The time commitment for some things is really what kills the enjoyment lmao. Grind for grind’s sake does get a little exhausting when it permeates every single facet of everything you do in the game.
When I played my Ironman I went dry on my tome of fire, got 99 firemaking twice, while doing solo wintertodt.
The grind became something of an unhealthy obsession. I do not recommend. Maybe 100-130 hour grind for that stupid book
That's why I quit playing.
Everything left to do was an insane commitment with zero entertainment beyond reaching the goal. I don't love osrs, I love the IDEA of osrs. In reality the game is so insanely awful, it actually HATES us.
I'm grateful the game exists, it got me through a really dark time. But none of the early-mid game content is actually good, save scurrius. There's only 1 good questline, and it's not even done! (When sins of the father 2????) Bots are officially a Mainstay feature, dead content never gets any kind of rework (looking at you barbarian assault) and to top it all off, the in-game community is fucking atrocious. Nothing but scammers and beggers, MAYBE 1 in 500 people can actually have a conversation, and when it does happen, there's a 90 percent chance they're going to be toxic.
Tl;dr- osrs is unplayable if you consider joy at all.
Oh my God I've held my tongue for so fucking long.
The problem with so much of the community not wanting change is that streamers who have the most influence play this game for career. Their opinions mean nothing to me because the average player isn't playing 8+ hours a day.
Everyone acts like bad luck mitigation is easy scape and that drops will be instantaneous where in reality all of these big ticket fucking drops will still take a long time to get.
It's not two sides of the spectrum, I think mitigation actually does a good job balancing and is burnout insurance.
One of my clan mates is an Ironman and he got a twisted bow sub 10 KC. Couldn't even use it when he got it. Got a Visage from lava dragons on 3 KC. Some people just have all the luck.
I don't understand what all the fuss is about. It literally all balances out in the end. Sure maybe you go dry on this particular item, but the next item it's the first drop. That's how probability works.
> That's how probability works.
Extremely ironic, but no the LLN does not kick in for rs rares unless you have a bot farm or are in like the top percentile (or whatever) of playtime
For the huge majority of people, it will not, and thus that is not 'how probability works'
Bad luck mitigation is a horrible mechanic. Look at DT2, it forces people into finishing the grind, because they are actually closer to the ring drop, and they burn out as a result.
It would just be nice to have a guaranteed drop rate on certain things. Even if it's double. An example being the black mask from cave horrors. It drops at 1/512 but it took me just shy of 2,100 kills to get it which is over 4x the drop rate. Let it roll for a chance to drop per the norm but once you get your 1,024th kill, let it be a guaranteed drop. Even if this one works for one drop per item per mob per account.
The grind is part of the game i believe in making sure 3x+ drop rate has an increased chance or a similar idea, but the drop rate is based on the average and u might be at the end of that scale at times. This game is built on it, maybe find a new route than that item or attempt it in moderation. Getting something handed to you takes the success out of achieving the item. Odablock is a perfect example, on his hcim he just got eternal. The man has 100b + but was so happy after getting a 140m item.
It would barely change anything. Most of you just don't understand what's being offered..like at all. It's only going to affect/reduce going incredibly dry
The only thing I really want badluck mit for is pets honestly, there are pets I'll probably never see in my entire lifetime
I've seen people hit 200m xp and still not have skilling pets
They have hit the literal cap and have no reason to continue doing the skill outside of the pet and it still seems like a "you won't get it until you give us your life force"
I'm fully okay with not receiving a pet, it's just disappointing to think that a cosmetic achievement little buddy can be impossible for a lot of people to actually get
Are they adding bad luck protection to the Dragon Warhammer? Because me and my 11000 shamans might actually return to the game if this change comes and is retroactively added
The unfortunate part is that the truth of this is lost on them. This post is completely correct. They will never be satisfied. They get upset because they want things so much and they do not get them. But then they get them and they suddenly do not have enough. They could have literally everything and then the game "*wouldn't have enough content*".
> This game is so boring, I quit I wonder what kill count this person got the tanzanite mutagen at
I'm sure he had so much fun getting it. https://preview.redd.it/lr8726wvaqyc1.png?width=252&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0959f0f6ada9203dc3482e01c8f0c8df59b5c8b9
https://preview.redd.it/xd4dat1ensyc1.jpeg?width=382&format=png&auto=webp&s=1119f40bdef32a2e3cdaab5ce25fab8f36f9665f The duality of osrs
https://preview.redd.it/yz3wt80josyc1.png?width=527&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=81711c5979e1429c6aad88c8904a037a914cd204
Clanmate's log, not mine. I'll pass along the meme though.
don’t worry, he’s seen it.
Mom just said it was my turn to post it this time.
. https://preview.redd.it/figqcyayusyc1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9cd423f3cddf23f9746cb4d4f53845e5e7dab59e
Seems like a lot to willingly put yourself through
Such is life, I suppose
https://preview.redd.it/fx506cekgtyc1.png?width=546&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d7c21d6d5674d4f44f2eec7a2b16f4a25a588d79
I thought items like this are there as a flex and I made stupidly rare for that every reason. You’ve had an equal chance to receive it on every kill and just haven’t got it. Some people are lucky and get the flex and some are not. It’s a game and you’ve chosen to kill 14k, and could have stopped at any point as you don’t have to have anything. Personally if I went this dry I’d evaluate if continuing was even worth it and if not just stop and go do something else that I actually enjoyed
Zulrah also used to be profitable, meaning more people were likely to receive them than now when it's basically only camped by irons and bots.
It's still profitable. 1-2m an hour on a main with decent efficiency
It will always be profitable, just not worth doing on a main. You get the same/more money with lower level money makers. You get significantly more with high level money makers that you can typically do on a main.
Nothing is "worth" doing on a main outside of duo nex/high invo solo toa and currently colosseum. *Edit* this comment is to directly point out the flaw in the one I responded to, I'm not saying the other content isn't worth doing but that the point OP made is stupid because all content is worth doing on a main as you have the choice.
That is an absurd amount of effort for that. Gear switches, pattern memorisation, prayer switches. Giant mole is more profitable.
Giant mole is 600k an hour, less in dharoks and if you have bowfa/crystal armour you can do ranged only zulrah which is also more profitable than mole. Edit: was wrong about GP rates at mole
Check again, mole is around 1.5m now.
With max stats and str bonus it's 1.1m in dharoks at 50 kills an hour. Maybe 1.5 with tbow and cannon max efficiency. For a mid level account in dharoks it'd be around 600k. But yeah didn't realise how much mole skin/claws were atm. Probably about equal to zulrah gp wise. Yes if you want pure GP/hr it's less effort, but if that's all your focused on and you're rich enough to have end game gear to reach those rates you may as well go do nex with a small team
If you wanna be bored out of your mind sure. Learning zulrah is like learning to ride a bike, and then learning how to do tricks, you don’t forget how to do it.
Gamblers fallacy
Literally the opposite of the gamblers fallacy.
He’s talking about gamblers fallacy
That was me when WoW Classic came. I wanted pre-raid BiS as fast as possible and was trying to farm gladiator chain forever. Eventually I just quit after going 2x more dry than any streamer whom complained about being crazy dry on it. I guess I’m in the first category 🤔
https://preview.redd.it/of7uo5m1wwyc1.jpeg?width=1380&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d66e9dc23f2ee8a2ba00923c23267051ece81f79
You realize they are just cosmetic right?
its funny i hear more people complain about doing things like skilling,quests,going dry , then saying they enjoy the game
Im one step ahead of you guys. I already quit
Every time I try I come back
https://preview.redd.it/6g54ogza9ryc1.png?width=516&format=png&auto=webp&s=703332c4ce0e1cc4c4fd199a07fc353aff2225b7 This is what's being proposed. A gradual increase in droprate after going 2x on an item that really only affects the most unlucky bastards. Doubt it'll make the game boring for anyone. You've got this tagged as humor, but plenty of people don't seem to grasp the extent, so I figured we might need some clarification.
i'm ngl this doesn't even seem effective enough? only cuts by half the number of people that go 3x dry? this is what people are so strongly opposing? do they even have brain cells?
They would be mad if they can read it.
While you might still go pretty dry, you'll at least have the knowledge that every kc is getting you closer to the drop. But yeah, I don't really understand why some people dislike it so much.
They probably dislike it on principle. In their mind, even a 0.01% increase after 10x the drop rate would be going too far, because it's not about the actual numbers for them. If it's anything other than an independent dice roll, they don't like it. That's, of course, assuming they're not just being vindictive.
Except we have boosted pet rates after 200m, so there is a point where they find it palatable (never heard anyone complain about it anyways)
I'm pretty convinced it's the latter. If they already have the drop, it's pulling up the ladder behind them. If they don't have the drop, it's the crab in a bucket mentality. Childish attitude either way, as it's not like this would going to suddenly flood the market with extra uniques or do anything that would actually tangibly affect them.
I'm opposed to it because of what the person above you wrote. It's the principle of having non-static rates and that, to me, goes against the "basic" drop rate system mostly used in OSRS. Same reason I think Vorkath head guaranteed at 50 kills is bullshit. I'm not vindictive. I had this opinion before and after I went 4x dry in CG, and I hated doing CG in general. There's multiple cases of me getting lucky and going dry on grinds in general, and that's part of the game to me. It feels like there's no winning here, because people like you will always default into the two same ill fated "gotcha" arguments. "You couldn't get it yourself and therefore you don't wish for other people to get it" or "You have the drop and don't want people catching up to you".
Why is having non static rates a bad thing for you?
The reason I am for it is because there is no limit on how far the dry tail of the distribution curve can extend. And there is no reason for that. We are mostly working adults with families at this point and this is supposed to be something we do for fun. Truncating that curve for the VERY small population of players who reach those levels will have no impact on the game overall. It would be such a minor increase in the number of items in the game that if jagex secretly implemented it today it would take us years before we ever figured it out (if ever) You would still have players going 3x, 4x, 5x drop rate. We would still see the same "I'm so stupidly dry" posts. ETA: I agree with you that the accusations that players against the change are just being spiteful are dumb and not progressing the discussion.
You've gotten lucky and unlucky. But this wouldnt stop that. You'd still get unlucky. You could still even go 4X at CG! What it stops is you going 7X-10X.
On another post I tried to explain the macro vs micro parts of the statistics at play here and got downvoted to oblivion. People can't grasp that most players will never be impacted by this but the very small few who are will be significantly impacted by it. This isn't impacting anyone who falls within 2 or 3 standard deviations, nor anyone at all on the "lucky" side of the curve. This would strictly truncate the very tail end of the dry side of the curve. They all seem to believe that going dry at A nexessarily means you get spooned at B so it's a fair balance. They don't grasp that that ISNT how this works AND even if it was getting a shaman mask (for example) in 1kc doesn't make up for being 5x dry on a bofa.
I'm all for it, because not all rng is the same. Rendi talked once in a video about trying to sort it out, but chalked it up to being too difficult ever for him... But every account has a different seed (like randomly generated worlds in other games) than affects that account's rolls at different bosses differently than any other account. So the few who got stuck with the allocation of going 8x the drop rate at any given piece of content, now only have to go 5x. Which just sounds like QOL to me.
Is there proof accounts have "seeds"? That sounds utterly shit if true.
No, it's a working theory. It's possible it's tied to account - possible also that it's tied any of the following: Current time (tic), server, world, and a myriad of other potential factors. The problem is that most people when doing routine content keep most of these the same when grinding (time they play, world they play on, etc) so it's impossible for even the most dedicated players to try and work out how RNG is seeded. It can be done in some instances. I know there are speedrun categories for fastest random events times - unofficial of course - but they use RNG manipulation to force random events as early as a few minutes into an accounts life. You can look it up, I don't have the link currently - apologies.
The people who don't care about statistics and disregard it should not be allowed to vote...
I would counter that I don't think anyone should vote. This is integrity if you asks me. 99% of players not impacted but the 1% who will be it's massive and should be up to players to decide. Edit: typo
They do, but they're just being emotional because they don't agree with it
And now you see why it seems 90% of the people against it didn’t even read it.
If you notice, it's becomes incredibly unlikely to go >5X dry with BLM but without it you don't see that till 7-8X. That's the effective part.
Remember, this is 2007scape, there's a bunch of people here who put close to if not more than a full time job into this game a week and base their idea of how progression should be balanced on their dozens of hours a week worth of playtime.
Most people in this sub haven't put that much time into the game. Most people on this sub hear 40 hour grind and don't realize what 40 hours of efficient bossing actually looks like. They don't realize this doesn't mean spend 40 hours in game and you will be at rate. It means stop the clock every time you aren't in the encounter, are at the bank, type on your keyboard, go adk for a minute, or even just aren't being 100% efficient even while engaging with the boss. That 40 hours could be 2-3x that long in actual game play time because we are all humans and not robots. Now imagine doing that 3, 4, 5x drop rate.
If you look at the chart, it suggests that 100% of people should have the drop by 5x the drop rate, compared to some people needing to go 7x the drop rate if there was no mitigation. THAT'S what bad luck mitigation does, it removes the absolute highest outliers.
5x the drop rate is already in outlier space. we're talking about improving the drop rate for \~1% of players. What is wrong with that?
If jagex implemented this right now and didn't tell us we wouldn't figure it out for years, if ever. The outliers would still be there at 5x vs 7x and they are so insignificant that the average wouldn't move enough to shift the 1/1000 calculated rates.
Exactly. It would largely fly under the radar, but for those people going 3-4x dry, it creates a light at the end of the tunnel.
The way we’d know is no more 2000 KC gauntlet logs with 0 EHC, which is 100% a good thing haha
2k kc is still 5x so the proposal would still have a few (but less than today) extremely unlucky folks in that range. But that 3k dry guy wouldn't exist. But yes I 100% agree both as a player and as a redditor who is tired of the extreme dry posts. :)
Nothing. I'm just pointing out that people look at bad Iuck mitigation all wrong. It's not about any individual player, or the majority of players. it's about the outliers in the aggregate.
i know that, my point is that i think it should kick in earlier than on the image, tapering off much faster so that 3x dry on big-ticket items would be very rare (on the order of 1% instead of 3%) and practically guaranteed by 4x. but that is my opinion, influenced by knowing a few people who have gone to 1200kc at cg and seeing how it has warped their mind and body into a husk of what they were before (half-joking)
I agree.
Statistics is hard for some people...
No they want to spend 100 hours grinding something that might not drop.
Yeah it only handles the absolute extreme ends
they do not understand the proposal or have gone themselves so dry they want others to go also, tale as old as a time. Even if the BLM was implemented from the beginning, it would've never affected me so far and I still 100% support it.
They're nolifers and purists so
Everyone opposing it just doesn't even understand what's happening. This basically just prevents people from going 4/5/6/7x dry. Such a small percentage of players would even go that dry on an item and a fraction of that fraction even make it to that high of kc anyways. Don't worry though the guy with 60 efficient hours bossed thinks this is "changing the very essence of OSRS" .
It’s players selling their own gold and bots who are opposed to adjusting the laughable casino-style drops. Nobody else is affected enough to have a strong negative opinion on it.
There’s plenty of people who have stronge negative opinions about it and basically every response is “just play a main and use ge” which completely ignores that mains go dry, or “quit asking for easy scape” which makes no sense.
You should definitely post this image around so much more; there are so many people in this sub crying about bad luck mitigation without even understanding how little this will affect the general playerbase.
I've made some posts discussing it already, they don't show this exact graph, but highlight the same point. Seeing as those two posts kinda instigated this whole flood of bad luck mitigation posts, I'm keeping to the comments for now 😅
That’s because people against it are smooth brained and don’t know how computerized RNG works.
Ngl I haven’t paid much attention to the solutions. I’m a main so I’ve been just making memes most the time about bad luck mitigation. But in reality this looks good. I’m not going to be out here lobbying for it but if this gets proposed I don’t see a reason to say no. It 1000% beats the stupid dt2 drop mechanics, I’d much rather see this and seems to be a solid solution.
These mid game players really want to have a say in a game they have 5 days played in. Have an opinion about something they don’t understand is so funny.
no you aren't allowed to use facts & logic here!
You act like the people asking for bad luck mitigation are complaining after only 30 minutes of going dry.
i think our issue is there there's a lot of GEscapers who have never actually aimed for a drop. they grind for a while and buy the thing, bots will supply it for them. the fact that their argument always ends up "just buy it lol" proves this (along with the fact that they just hate ironmen, i guess?), they only play to buy their equipment.
That and people who act like their OSRS bank value is their actual retirement fund.
OP doesn’t know what bad luck mitigation is
Also swear this didn’t have the humour tag originally
tbf does anyone know what it means right now? i feel like everyone is arguing about it being good/bad based just in their particular idea of what it would look like. until/unless jagex gives us their idea of how to implement it we’re just talking past each other. i feel like a lot of the people opposed to it think everything is going to be like vorkath head at 50kc. have any jmods commented on this except for that one post? but that’s just one idea for how it could work.
There was an entire post with graphs and everything, with a very concrete suggestion of what it would look like, which was the trigger for these discussions in the first place. That should be the version that people discuss.
they should, but it doesn’t seem like everyone is. some people haven’t read that proposal or aren’t good at understanding math or are criticizing it in bad faith, thinking that it will have way more of an impact on the economy than it would. i bet some people noticed the 200 threads created in response but maybe not the original post. popular stuff doesn’t stay on the top of the front page on subreddits like it would on a real forum website.
If you are literate and not lobotomized, it's really not hard to figure out what it would be.
well i’m not either of those. there was one post explaining one proposal for dryness protection and 200 threads reacting and memeing it. if you missed seeing the original post you might not know the specifics of what is being (unconstructively) criticized, and it seems like a lot of people are arguing against a straw man instead of the specifics of what that one proposal put forth. i don’t know why you want to be so rude about it. get some sleep
You’re right I only play this game so that I can go 3x dry+ on every grind.
Literally my rs experience.
Wait, theres other ways to play rs besides getting stupidly dry on everything important?
You can also get 3x under a drop rate. You could also, theoretically, get a drop every single roll.
Slippery slope, Hasty Generalization, and Appeal to Ignorance fallacies.
Is everyone going at least 2x dry? I coulda swore it was only 14% of people hit that rate, and that’s just when the proposed bad luck protection would kick in. Crazy how there’s a group of people that think this is just handing out items. 2x dry at cox for tbow is like 700 hours on rate? 2x rate for bowfa is 140 hours. That’s still an insane amount of time to put in before it even starts to effect you!
Tbf, that's 14% of all grinds. After 7 applicable grinds, chances are you will have experienced droprate protection. Not that I think that matters.
That depends on implementation too. What if it starts at 3x? What if it's only for specific items? There's so much math to play around with to make it as minimally impactful to most players while still helping the ones who are going that dry. And yet detractors still act like people are asking for 10x droprates on everything, it boggles the mind.
To be fair shit like imbued heart could probably use a 10x boost to the drop rate lol
Can I cut my own heart out and imbue it? It would be less painful
Jagex: “Best I can do is 1/100 chance, you’ll have to cut your heart out 100 times to have a chance”
Ah, so we're opening up the organ market, right? _Right?_
It’s the one market bots can’t take over, I saw we do it
Down with the bots! We'll take our own hearts and our enemies'!
Also likely to go under drop rate on some grinds, although the curve is skewed towards dry.
Going doubble the drop rate isnt that bad anyway
I go 3x dry on some things, def woudnt mind bad luck mitigation lol. My guess is those folks never went down that old dusty dry road
Was there an official proposal or was there just a subreddit post you’re referring to when you mention the proposal?
Also a good old case of being shit at math
Also a false dichotomy.
All this has taught me is that anyone who is against bad luck mitigation as it was proposed just has no idea how math and statistics work. The guy on the right would be saying the same thing if he got every drop under the drop rate, and bad luck mitigation WOULD NOT EVEN HELP WITH THAT. It only would kick in once you are over DOUBLE THE DROP RATE
Wow OP it's almost like a healthy middle ground between getting showered in loot à la Path of Exile and going three times dry on BoFA might actually work. I know it's almost a meme to hate on Ironmen and give them the 'you chose to do this' talk every time they opened their mouths, but I think it would genuinely benefit EVERYBODY if there was a degree of bad-luck mitigation for some select items at least and only for the first time that they drop.
Anyone who tells iron men to stop complaining and deiron because of certain terrible grinds or pieces of content is just admitting they like a bot run economy. How many mains are seriously out there grinding 5000+ lizard men shamans until they get a DWH and then immediately selling it instead of keeping it for their own use? There’s so many better ways to make money in terms of both fun and profit. Like I’m sure at least one person exists but there’s a lot of items that would either be unusable or be wildly expensive in order for real people to justify the grind. Cannonballs, blood shards, insane drop rates on tedious mobs like shamans, all of these things that irons have to basically do without would become wildly expensive to get someone to justify wasting their time in order to make money. If the people most willing to engage in all the game’s content and do all manner of ridiculous grinds are completely unwilling to engage with a part of the game, there’s probably a serious issue with that part of the game.
Well put. Mains are heavily subsidized by bots, and if they did manage to eventually nuke them all, RNG protection would explode in popularity because of how high prices would climb.
Best take seen on this subject.
Grind so long to get it that it is now useless.
this is so far from the truth it hurts.
osrs players when the expected value of a boss changes by 0% (they cant do basic math)
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tbf, I'm reading comments from people that support mitigation that also are misinformed, thinking that this will guarantee items by 2-3x rate. Going 3x dry at shamans or cg would still be very much be a reality for a lot of people, only marginally less likely.
Ultimately it really depends on the numbers and what Jagex is trying to accomplish. Could push the numbers in any direction to move the curve anyway which they choose.
ah yes, not going 10x dry means every grind is instantly over true true true ?
The question is... why the fuck is the DWH, the backbone of melee spec meta, 1/5k, to be soon changed to 1/3k? Black mask is the backbone of slayer dps and it's a 1/512 of a creature that takes a fraction of the time it takes to kill a Shaman.
Slayer helm is much more essential , I’ve done like 500 raids on my iron without dwh
Lots of people who have willingly wasted years of their life are unwilling to support something like bad luck mitigation.
Having more gear actually makes the player more invested I find
Bad luck mitigation is when you get everything instantly
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There's nothing wrong with being neurodivergent dude, and a lot of people with ADHD probably will never even get to 1x droprate on stuff lol
Yeah, not every person has 100 hours a week to throw at grinds with drop rates clearly balanced for people who spend a full time job on grinding out stuff. A lot of the arguments against bad luck mitigation rely on either flat out blatant lies or come with this bs notion that if you aren't willing to grind out quadruple the droprate worth of mobs you don't deserve the drop, as if 1/5000 droprates are somehow reasonable to begin with.
Average Reddit take
“Oh thank god I only had to go 2x dry instead of 5x dry, I can enjoy other content now :D” The horrors
Just take cg for example. 1/400 chance. So 400 times lets say 10 minutes with everything. So 4000 minutes thats around 66 hours. For one dungeon. Thats is hard and does drain your sanity. You cant do 66 hours cg straight. Even if you can do 4 hours a day and never fail it would be 16 days. Not counting failing. So the average player would spend two and a half weeks of evening grinding. And still be dry most likely. Imagine being at 1kkc+ so you just spend 40+ days grinding the shit out of cg and still have absolute nothing to show for. And thats just one boss. So a quarter to half a year of playing a very very small part of the game while paying for it. It wouldnt be that bad if it was fun. But cg stops being fun at a certain point. We arent 12 anymore. Just try to reflect that the value of time for the average playerbase changed. And yes i'm an ironman. Playing main is boring. Just farm the most gp an hour for weeks any buy everthing. Great game. The solution for me would be an expansion of slayer tasks. Spread the tasks over all encounters through unlocks. Lower the droprate on task so you dont need to lock yourself in but can actually enjoy the game. Remember. In a game with no players your pixels arent worth shit.
>playing a main is boring >is asking for an entire overhaul of the loot system because the mode he picked is even more boring and restrictive
Your opinion isn't worth shit either. "We aren't 12 anymore". Bro shut up. You don't need "lock" yourself into anything. "Still have nothing to show for it" The gp? For fuck sake do irons want their own in game currencies? "Just farm the most gp an hour for weeks..." Okay? Irons just farm CG for weeks until they get the enhanced? More slayer tasks? What? Lower the drop rate? For what? The basilisk jaw? You don't like this game, go play a different one.
It’s exhausting to argue with these kids bro, no point, they want their babyscape and we just have to pray jagex has the good sense to ignore this nonsense
You just dont understand the proposal whilst simultaneously having an incredibly strong position on it just showcases you are not very bright. It is what it is my friend, go outside and eat some sand I suppose.
Even though I dislike it, I really hope jagex fixes RS3, just so these players go back to their game and stop trying to fuck up osrs. Imagine crying about a 66h grind on osrs and feeling like you are owed an item because you hit droprate.
Absolutely not a single person is arguing you should get the bowfa on drop rate, only the people who are against bad luck mitigation lol
It really is homie. I hope so too.
Yea it’s kinda weird they CHOOSE to play iron and then complain about grinds lol. And cg is one of the shorter grinds compared to endgame. So what’s next? Make tbow 3x more common? Make nex drops 1/10?
Difference is the right side stayed longer to give Jagex more money, you know what to do jamflex
Idk how anyone can think this game is boring. Fill the clog then tell me it’s boring.
The people who go the farthest on iron are the people who have good rng. With bad rng you simply don’t have fun playing the game.
That’s just straight up not true. The first picture happens all the time. If you end up in picture 2, there’s still so much more to do.
Bad luck mitigation should be added yesterday and people who don't like either don't know stats, are salty because they had to go through a horrible 3x or more dry spell or are just gambling addicts who don't know it yet
I think it's pretty clear from this past week that the vocal majority of this subreddit are gambling addicts.
Wouldn't more late/end game players mean more late/end game content?
That's not at all what would happen, the proposed implementation is way too weak to get more people into that content. The people going that dry are already some of the most dedicated players in the game lol, late game doesn't spook them.
main way that'll happen is making content like toa
Ah the duality of man and the universe.
Bad luck mitigation isn't going to happen. I am 100% sure of it. Source: My dad is mod ash.
We should have good luck mitigation, I'm tired of people getting spooned in multiple instances and should go dry after getting lucky.
Ok but where's the Good Luck Mitigation?
don’t play an rng-based game if you don’t like rng. pretty simple.
Please explain how this removes rng Why even comment if you have 0 clue what this is about
where did i ever mention it's removing the rng? making drops easier to get doesn't mean it's *removing* the rng, but it's certainly catering towards those who prefer consistency rather than genuine rng. going dry or getting spooned are both a part of that.
If you're not enjoying the content, don't force yourself to play it?
I’d be shocked if anyone actually likes fighting a boss when the only reason they have 3,000 kills at it is because a single item won’t drop 1 time. The time commitment for some things is really what kills the enjoyment lmao. Grind for grind’s sake does get a little exhausting when it permeates every single facet of everything you do in the game.
When I played my Ironman I went dry on my tome of fire, got 99 firemaking twice, while doing solo wintertodt. The grind became something of an unhealthy obsession. I do not recommend. Maybe 100-130 hour grind for that stupid book
I always want to get back into OSRS but whenever I realize the massive time commitment literally everything is it’s just like… eh.
i can't imagine doing 2x 99 fm for such a crappy item lol
I think by the time I hit 99, I felt so invested I just couldn't give up.
That's why I quit playing. Everything left to do was an insane commitment with zero entertainment beyond reaching the goal. I don't love osrs, I love the IDEA of osrs. In reality the game is so insanely awful, it actually HATES us. I'm grateful the game exists, it got me through a really dark time. But none of the early-mid game content is actually good, save scurrius. There's only 1 good questline, and it's not even done! (When sins of the father 2????) Bots are officially a Mainstay feature, dead content never gets any kind of rework (looking at you barbarian assault) and to top it all off, the in-game community is fucking atrocious. Nothing but scammers and beggers, MAYBE 1 in 500 people can actually have a conversation, and when it does happen, there's a 90 percent chance they're going to be toxic. Tl;dr- osrs is unplayable if you consider joy at all.
I don't think many people even in the hlc would enjoy going 4000kc dry on a tbow tbh I don't think many people at all would
How about, bad and good luck mitigation? You won’t go 5x drop rate but you won’t get it until it’s 2x rate minimum.
> you won’t get it until it’s 2x rate minimum. Ah yes, the infinitely recursive rate scaling, noone will ever get a drop again
It’s perfect.
id say 80% of the game is boring and monotonous but that 20% is really fun
Oh my God I've held my tongue for so fucking long. The problem with so much of the community not wanting change is that streamers who have the most influence play this game for career. Their opinions mean nothing to me because the average player isn't playing 8+ hours a day. Everyone acts like bad luck mitigation is easy scape and that drops will be instantaneous where in reality all of these big ticket fucking drops will still take a long time to get. It's not two sides of the spectrum, I think mitigation actually does a good job balancing and is burnout insurance.
I'd rather be bored with a full collection log and a high value bank than with nothing I actually want.
Jesus, all these people out here insulting you that you don't understand basic math etc. When it's clearly a joke post.
One of my clan mates is an Ironman and he got a twisted bow sub 10 KC. Couldn't even use it when he got it. Got a Visage from lava dragons on 3 KC. Some people just have all the luck.
I don't understand what all the fuss is about. It literally all balances out in the end. Sure maybe you go dry on this particular item, but the next item it's the first drop. That's how probability works.
> That's how probability works. Extremely ironic, but no the LLN does not kick in for rs rares unless you have a bot farm or are in like the top percentile (or whatever) of playtime For the huge majority of people, it will not, and thus that is not 'how probability works'
Bad luck mitigation is a horrible mechanic. Look at DT2, it forces people into finishing the grind, because they are actually closer to the ring drop, and they burn out as a result.
It would just be nice to have a guaranteed drop rate on certain things. Even if it's double. An example being the black mask from cave horrors. It drops at 1/512 but it took me just shy of 2,100 kills to get it which is over 4x the drop rate. Let it roll for a chance to drop per the norm but once you get your 1,024th kill, let it be a guaranteed drop. Even if this one works for one drop per item per mob per account.
I like it how OSRS currently is. Your account may be cursed on some bosses or drops but on others your RNG may be one of the best to show off.
What if my iron looks like the right without it and I still play
Well. I am hunting Pets. So ive got some Content to Go through
The grind is part of the game i believe in making sure 3x+ drop rate has an increased chance or a similar idea, but the drop rate is based on the average and u might be at the end of that scale at times. This game is built on it, maybe find a new route than that item or attempt it in moderation. Getting something handed to you takes the success out of achieving the item. Odablock is a perfect example, on his hcim he just got eternal. The man has 100b + but was so happy after getting a 140m item.
Careful mentioning odablock. The only thing that makes redditors screech more than bad luck mitigation
It would barely change anything. Most of you just don't understand what's being offered..like at all. It's only going to affect/reduce going incredibly dry
The only thing I really want badluck mit for is pets honestly, there are pets I'll probably never see in my entire lifetime I've seen people hit 200m xp and still not have skilling pets They have hit the literal cap and have no reason to continue doing the skill outside of the pet and it still seems like a "you won't get it until you give us your life force" I'm fully okay with not receiving a pet, it's just disappointing to think that a cosmetic achievement little buddy can be impossible for a lot of people to actually get
I feel like bad luck protection for anything end game should remain untouched. Anything pre raids is up for grabs
Are they adding bad luck protection to the Dragon Warhammer? Because me and my 11000 shamans might actually return to the game if this change comes and is retroactively added
Point being; if you're not having fun, take a break.
The unfortunate part is that the truth of this is lost on them. This post is completely correct. They will never be satisfied. They get upset because they want things so much and they do not get them. But then they get them and they suddenly do not have enough. They could have literally everything and then the game "*wouldn't have enough content*".
Pls add good luck mitigation to balance. Get every drop exactly on drop rate.
People complaining for bad luck mitigation are usually not the ones that would go long enough on a grind to even profit from a realistic mitigation
Every bad luck mitigation supporter just immediately resorts to ad hominem and gaslighting as a way to push their ideas. It’s classic Reddit
If we do add bad luck mitigation it should be 10X = you get the drop and 200M gives you a skilling pet. There.
OP plays 16hrs a day I guess
Bad luck mitigation is the worst idea I’ve heard so far for an update lol