This question really seems to elicit answers about who people want to win (on both sides of things) vs. the likelihoods of such. I don’t know the answer, but it’s definitely 50/50 as a reality baseline and becoming more than that in Trump’s favor for a whole host of reasons.
Biden will likely win.
Unless there is a major health crisis like Covid-19 or a major economic meltdown *the incumbent* usually wins.
Prior to Trump losing in 2020 the other sitting presidents losing in recent times were Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush. In each of those instances the economy was in a total slump or facing a crisis.
Presently the stock market is at near all-time highs and unemployment is almost at a 50-year low.
Secondly, the extreme pro-life stance and overturning of Roe v Wade will likely alienate lots of women.
Many women and men will vote for candidates who support pro-choice in 2024.
Stock market might be high but average people are still suffering from the effects of inflation over the past three years.
What the DJIA is doing doesn’t matter to people who are paying a lot more for groceries, gas, and other expenses. Plus it sounds like we’re in for another interest rate hike instead of a cut because of higher expected inflation numbers.
(A lot of average people have 401k and retirement funds that are doing well because the stock market is high.)
Inflation has also risen initially because of supply chain issues after Covid-19. Low unemployment means more people have jobs and are spending more which is why the Feds kept raising interest rates to deter spending on homes, cars, iPhones, electronics, and other things.
In addiction the citrus industry was devastated by an insect called the Asian citrus psyllid which raised a lot of fruit and juice prices. There have also been multiple rounds of bird flu affecting chicken and egg prices.
Some companies are guilty of price gouging and have refused to lower their prices after the supply issues were addressed and others are passing the higher salary demands of employees to consumers.
Just recently in California they passed a law to pay fast-food workers **$20 per hour**. You know franchise owners at McDonald's, Wendy's, Burger King, KFC, and other places are going to raise their food prices.
A lot of this inflation is the byproduct of full employment, higher salary demands, and continuing spending. The Feds thought raising the interest rates would slow down hiring, reduce employment, spending, the buying of cars, and homes...etc.
However, each month the job reports indicate continue (record job hiring).
This causes the Fed to be reluctant to lower the interest rates.
(Maybe it's impossible to have full employment, higher wages, and continuous consumer spending without inflation.)
Some people believe it will take a recession and major job layoffs to make a major dent in inflation.
The last recession in the U.S. was between 2007-2009. It began during the end of George W. Bush's term.
When President Trump took office in January 2017, (he inherited an economy) in its **91st month of economic expansion** following the end of the Great Recession in June 2009.
That expansion continued into 2020, becoming the longest on record. The Covid-19 crisis killed his re-election.
Not the outcome I want, but I think Trump will probably win.
It's just too easy to say "X didn't happen when I was President, therefor it will stop happening if I'm President again" and nevermind that he hasn't actually articulated any plans to solve things like inflation (hell, he's openly advocating for policies that would make it *worse*)
And large parts of the country seem to believe that Biden was President in 2020.
I don't. I served the country. So I don't hate it. But I don't want another 4 year embarrassment where we have to figure out if the national guard will have to be activated when his time is up. I wish the Dems had someone to replace Biden but that's not the case. There is no way in hell I'd vote for a republican at this time though.
I mean sure, I hate all the dim witted trumpsters..... So I guess I hate less than the majority. But yeah, you're right, more than some.
Why do you support morons?
Biden. Trump's base is shrinking and it doesn't take many more of them realising what an asshole he is to torpedo his chances.
Biden is very, very unpopular though. Even among those who supported him in 2020.
He's really not. That's just the conservative copium of the day.
Agreed. Chips act, and infrastructure bill really boosted his stats.
Hopefully not the conman rapist traitor.
This question really seems to elicit answers about who people want to win (on both sides of things) vs. the likelihoods of such. I don’t know the answer, but it’s definitely 50/50 as a reality baseline and becoming more than that in Trump’s favor for a whole host of reasons.
I mean I really just asked this to see what people think. Of course there’s gonna be quite some debate when it comes to American elections lol.
China
At this point I think it's about 50/50 which is really fucking disappointing. It's embarrassing to live in the U.S. at times.
Why is it disappointing?
Trump is a shitty person and shouldn't have a real chance at winning.
Ehhh, won’t put any tears in my eyes if he does manage to win.
Biden will likely win. Unless there is a major health crisis like Covid-19 or a major economic meltdown *the incumbent* usually wins. Prior to Trump losing in 2020 the other sitting presidents losing in recent times were Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush. In each of those instances the economy was in a total slump or facing a crisis. Presently the stock market is at near all-time highs and unemployment is almost at a 50-year low. Secondly, the extreme pro-life stance and overturning of Roe v Wade will likely alienate lots of women. Many women and men will vote for candidates who support pro-choice in 2024.
Stock market might be high but average people are still suffering from the effects of inflation over the past three years. What the DJIA is doing doesn’t matter to people who are paying a lot more for groceries, gas, and other expenses. Plus it sounds like we’re in for another interest rate hike instead of a cut because of higher expected inflation numbers.
(A lot of average people have 401k and retirement funds that are doing well because the stock market is high.) Inflation has also risen initially because of supply chain issues after Covid-19. Low unemployment means more people have jobs and are spending more which is why the Feds kept raising interest rates to deter spending on homes, cars, iPhones, electronics, and other things. In addiction the citrus industry was devastated by an insect called the Asian citrus psyllid which raised a lot of fruit and juice prices. There have also been multiple rounds of bird flu affecting chicken and egg prices. Some companies are guilty of price gouging and have refused to lower their prices after the supply issues were addressed and others are passing the higher salary demands of employees to consumers. Just recently in California they passed a law to pay fast-food workers **$20 per hour**. You know franchise owners at McDonald's, Wendy's, Burger King, KFC, and other places are going to raise their food prices. A lot of this inflation is the byproduct of full employment, higher salary demands, and continuing spending. The Feds thought raising the interest rates would slow down hiring, reduce employment, spending, the buying of cars, and homes...etc. However, each month the job reports indicate continue (record job hiring). This causes the Fed to be reluctant to lower the interest rates. (Maybe it's impossible to have full employment, higher wages, and continuous consumer spending without inflation.) Some people believe it will take a recession and major job layoffs to make a major dent in inflation. The last recession in the U.S. was between 2007-2009. It began during the end of George W. Bush's term. When President Trump took office in January 2017, (he inherited an economy) in its **91st month of economic expansion** following the end of the Great Recession in June 2009. That expansion continued into 2020, becoming the longest on record. The Covid-19 crisis killed his re-election.
The candidate that is limited to one further term.
That’s both of them… lol
Wow, really? I hadn't noticed.......
America’s geopolitical enemies.
Biden
Seems fairly likely.
I mean, as part Ukrainian, I really can't let Trump win.
**TRUMP**
**TRUMP**
corn pop 4 sho!
Unfortunately William "Corn Pop" Morris passed away in 2016 and as such, will not be eligible to run for President
na, we've had dead people as president before, so we can do it again.
Not the outcome I want, but I think Trump will probably win. It's just too easy to say "X didn't happen when I was President, therefor it will stop happening if I'm President again" and nevermind that he hasn't actually articulated any plans to solve things like inflation (hell, he's openly advocating for policies that would make it *worse*) And large parts of the country seem to believe that Biden was President in 2020.
Biden, aka. not the American people.
I hope so!
Why you hate Americans so much?
I don't. I served the country. So I don't hate it. But I don't want another 4 year embarrassment where we have to figure out if the national guard will have to be activated when his time is up. I wish the Dems had someone to replace Biden but that's not the case. There is no way in hell I'd vote for a republican at this time though.
Ah, so you fall in the "useful idiot" category. Well you've got a lot of company I guess
Hopefully enough to outweigh the midwest rednecks!
You do hate Americans. Why'd you lie lol?
i'm starting to hate some right now in this moment maybe...Trump supporters are another level of crazy.
I bet you hate a lot more than just some lol
I mean sure, I hate all the dim witted trumpsters..... So I guess I hate less than the majority. But yeah, you're right, more than some. Why do you support morons?
The irony of someone that will vote for trump or a third party saying someone else is a useful idiot.
This is basically what I'd expect from a useful idiot lol. You just need to mention fox new to complete the picture
You are a sad little man.
Nothing you say has any meaning