Penn State didn’t make the CFP a single time in the 10 years of the 4-team era but would have made it six times with a 12-team playoff (‘16, ‘17, ‘18, ‘19, ‘22, and ‘23).
We’ve been second in a 1-team system, third in the two-team system and fifth in the four-team system. I just know we are going to be 12th and bumped for an autobid this year.
We would have been in the playoffs in 2017 and 2018 at a minimum. A 12 team playoff may have also helped get better coaches and players so who knows whether we would have been in morw
According to the following article they would have made it: https://www.pennlive.com/pennstatefootball/2022/12/if-cfp-was-always-12-teams-how-many-would-psu-have-been-in-heres-who-where-lions-wouldve-played-jones.html?outputType=amp
There’s also the inconvenient fact that by the end of that game, we were damn close to having to suit up kids from the freaking Blue Band sousaphone section to play linebacker.
Yeah but i think to the ND fan's point, Rose Bowl McCaffrey that year was one of the all time CFB performances, really cemented his legacy. If that game was a playoff game, he might have just led Stanford to win it all.
No shade but It would've been funny as to have Oregon and UW play the championship just for UW to win by 3 again.
I firmly believe Oregon was a top 4 team and got shafted by having to face UW twice.
When conferences adopted conference championship games 15-20 years ago this was the argument against them. All it does is harm one of the two teams, while doing little to boost the winner. Washington would have made it regardless, Oregon would have been the top 1-loss.
But, the 4-team playoff forced the hands of the last-adopters (the Big-12) because a team that won a conference championship > a team that did not.
Part of me wonders if we go back to not having conference championship games now that the top 4 champions all get BYEs.
So if you are in this situation in the B1G with Ohio State being undefeated and 1-loss Oregon playing them in the rematch... it doesn't help the conference to play the game. Ohio State loses and they are a 5-8 seed. Ohio State wins and they get a bye. Oregon wins and they get the bye. Oregon loses and they are the 8-12 seed. If you don't play the game at all Ohio State gets the bye and Oregon gets a 5-8 seed.
So the conference championship game is going to go back to actively harming the conference just like it did before the 4-team playoff. Best case is your underdog upsets your favorite and you end up with the same outcome as you would have had had you just not played the game.
I think this year really proves that 12 is more than sufficient to show who the top teams were. 8 team tournament this year would've been perfect because 9-12 were simply a step below the top 8. If you don't get in in those last 4 spots then you definitely were just not deserving. Having the bye helps but it still isnt that massive a difference barring injuries. Either way 12 might be too much but it's the only way to guarantee no one gets seriously snubbed like FSU/Oregon/Georgia did this year
I like your idea. Remove the CCGs since we already are doing away with divisions. Why have OSU play Michigan Nov 23 and then again in early December and then maybe again in the playoff.
It just gets a little ridiculous to award conference titles to teams that play only partial round robins without at least making 1 and 2 play at the end in a conference title game.
Because if it worked once for many money then it'll work infinity times for infinity money. Who cares that its only once a year nature is part of the specialness!
The Pacific 12 conference was a collegiate athletic conference from 2012-2024. It was robbed and murdered by television executives and their allies in the Big Ten, Big 12, and Atlantic Coast Conference for money.
The Athletic had an article examining how many times a team would have made the CFP in the BCS thru CFP era. It’s a bit longer of a time period than you’re talking about but along the same line of thinking.
https://theathletic.com/3565760/2022/09/05/college-football-playoff-12-teams-bcs/?source=user_shared_article
- 18 Ohio State
- 16 Oklahoma
- 13 Alabama
- 12 Florida
- 11 Georgia
- 11 LSU
- 10 Florida State, Oregon
- 9 Notre Dame, USC
- 8 Boise State, Kansas State, TCU, Wisconsin
- 7 Clemson, Michigan, Penn State, Texas
There is more on the list if you go to the article.
Also came to mention Penn State. Not sure if Franklin could get over the hump and take them deep into the playoffs but they'd have made several appearances.
And he’s won some ny6 bowl games in matchups that could have been 1st round playoff games. Obviously ignoring this years ole miss game with a skeleton defense
Penn States would have been playoff teams in 2017, 2019, and 2022 all won their bowl games. In 2016, they lost a shootout to USC (that team that went undefeated after switching to Sam Darnold)
In my faulty memory I thought it was Juju Smith-Schuster that was burning us for most of USC’s points but he wasn’t even close to their leading scorer/receiver. Deontay Burnett had 13 catches for 164 yards and 3 tds to lead USC.
That game was a nuts shootout. PSU was up 42-27 all the way up until half way through the third quarter and ended up losing 52-49
With Franklin where he's at right now, I could see him picking up some playoff wins but I struggle to envision him as a genuine NC threat.
However, coaches have repeatedly throughout history broken through various ceilings and have elevated both their coaching and their program.
For example, it took Tom Osborne like 15'ish years to finally pull in an NC and before that he had tons of 4-10 ranked teams.
I like Penn State as a program and Franklin strikes me as a good dude. I hope he breaks through the ceiling and gets Penn State operating at its full potential (which is being a consistent NC threat IMO).
PSU is in the same category as ND (no natties since the start of the BCS), Tennessee (1 natty near the start of the BCS), OU (1 natty near the start of the BCS), and UMich (1 natty recently only with one of the top coaches of all time) in that they should make a 12-team CFP fairly regularly (1/3rd to half the time) but almost never actually win the natty unless all stars are aligned.
> win the natty unless all stars are aligned.
To be fair, that's essentially every program except the fully armed and operational Death Stars and even Death Stars get blown up and cast down from time to time. Even programs that I'd personally consider to be armed and operational Death Stars often need stuff to align, like tOSU. Heck, this year UGA missed the playoffs despite having an excellent team.
Yeah Michigan went through the same thing with Harbaugh. 6 years of top 10-15ish teams that could not make the leap until they did make the leap. If we’re looking backward at who would have benefited over the last decade, I think the perception of winning a few round of 8/12 games and losing to very good top 5 teams would look a lot better than winning “meaningless” bowl games
> losing to very good top 5 teams would look a lot better than winning “meaningless” bowl games
definitely agree there.
one thing I have to give tOSU props for is that they have been a consistent NC threat year after year after year.
Alabama, Florida, Michigan, USC, Notre Dame, and pretty much every other program goes through cycles with downturns being pretty natural.
Penn State has rebounded from the scandal, now they need to punch through.
That’s something both of our fan bases know well: Ohio State has literally never been bad. They’ve had some isolated .500 seasons, but never a stretch of bad teams. It’s why they talk about John Cooper, who won shares of 3 big ten titles and had an 111-43-4 record, like he’s Rich Rod or John L Smith. That’s literally as bad as they can imagine. I pray they learn what it’s like to go through 3 straight 4 to 7 win seasons.
It’s why I think there’s an argument that Ohio State is the best job in college football. Their floor is above most teams ceilings
I think our 2017 team could have beaten anyone on a neutral field. Held the lead more than anyone in the country that year, and had two road losses in back to back weeks by a total of 4 points…to a twelve and ten win teams. Saquon, Gesicki, McSorley, and all time receptions leader DaeSean Hamilton, They had some dudes that year.
Blowing 4th quarter leads against OSU is the most frustrating thing about being a Penn State fan in the Franklin era. I know at least 3 games they led in the 4th quarter since winning in 2016.
So I like that our team improved enough to make the playoffs, but I did want to see Michigan and UGA tussle this year. Georgia looked unbeatable and I was paying attention enough to Michigan to know they had improved significantly over last year. Was shocked to see us up in the fourth quarter tbh.
Ohio state absolutely would have. I think our lowest finish in the CFB rankings for the 4 team era was 7. Where did Bama finish in 2019? I remember it being the first year of that format that Bama missed out on a NY6 game. Just don’t remember their exact ranking
Shutdown Fullcast has observed, correctly I think, that Ohio State is always the most important team, because pretty much every year, they either got in somewhat controversially or got left out somewhat controversially. So this seems right to me.
I wonder who will be the new Ohio State for the 12-team. Probably somebody like Penn State? And boy, if that doesn’t say a lot about how the standard is being watered down! 🤣
2019 was definitely not a controversy. 2022, I’d say was also not all that controversial, they were the only 1 loss team left standing. Same could be said for 2016, despite what Penn State claims.
10-2 regular season. 5 point loss to LSU and 3 point loss to Auburn. I think Bama gets in to the playoff. Bama was killing everyone prior to the Tua ankle injury. Mac Jones obviously had the ability to win a natty, but was slow his first few games getting up to speed as a starter.
Yeah only year that would’ve been questionable for Bama was 2019 but I think the committee would’ve put them in.
Georgia would’ve gained 4 additional appearances
Yeah, Alabama was 13th in the final CFP rankings. I think we miss the playoffs. They finished in the Top 10 but that was after the bowl game against Michigan.
Yeah I think the easy answer to this is Alabama, Georgia, or Ohio State. The rest of the answers would have almost certainly lost in the first or second round of the playoffs anyway. These three would have had legitimate championship shots nearly every year.
I wonder what that 2015 Ohio State team could’ve done in the playoff. We underperformed all year but still won almost every game because the talent in that team was absurd. Getting into the playoff pissed off after the MSU loss would’ve been fun to watch
I feel like Penn State could have benefited from an expanded playoff would they win a championship maybe not,but they definitely could have been a tough match up in the early rounds.
Georgia definitely this past season and a few other seasons.
USC had three seasons since 2014 where they could have made it in an expanded playoff I doubt they would have done anything.
TCU and Baylor that one year for sure.
FSU past season.
TOSU multiple times
Utes maybe?
2016 Penn State had all the wind at their back after beating Ohio State and rode it to a conference championship, but got boxed out for a couple bad early losses.
2014 TCU and 2014 Baylor were a combo-meal in 4-team sadness. Both of them (but TCU especially) would've really benefitted.
Only the loss to Michigan was really bad and Penn State's linebackers were all injured. Penn State's defense wasn't exceptional that year but LB was by far their best position.
They lost by 3 to Pitt who would also beat Clemson that season.
Make the 2023 12-teamer
*monkey’s paw curls*
Rematch with Bama in Atlanta. 😈
Nah but fr y’all would’ve been dangerous. That’s why we had to be the ones to cut that 3-peat short. No one else was gonna get the job done.
2015 osu, 21 osu, and 23 osu all “could” have too I’d say. 21 is the biggest stretch and only say that because bamas receivers ended up getting hurt and Bama was able to pass on Georgia in the sec championship game. Osu could have put up points but that defense was poopy. Likely would have looked a lot like the michigan game that year though. 15 osu was probably the most talented team that just didn’t play many games well. And this past year was very stacked at the top with a lot of teams that had a realistic chance at it
I think Georgia would have made the playoff every year since 2017. I would have liked another shot at Bama in 2018 and 2023, but I also don’t mind that we avoided them in 2022, which might not have happened if they made the CFP also. They had two losses by a total of 4 points, and while I think Georgia was the better team last year, when has that mattered?
This is the right way to answer the question. Too many people naming teams that would have made the playoffs and lost first round.
IMO the question is asking who got snubbed that could have actually won a title
Biased take but Wisconsin had the most wins of any team to not make the playoff during the playoff era. We would’ve hosted playoff games first round 3 times had it been a 12 team playoff
The Big Ten East was a PPV dog fight every week, with PB&Js and punches being thrown just to see who could make it to Indy.
The Big Ten West was just Iowa, Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Purdue all arriving at a four-way stop at the same time and trying to wave the other teams through. Peak Midwest.
“Trying to wave the other teams through.” Damn, that is a perfect description of the Big Ten West. No team *earned* a division title. The other teams were just too polite to accept it.
I mean the Big Ten West has only *sucked* since 2020. Before that, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Northwestern were all consistently good. Hell, it had three top-15 teams in 2019!
It’s true but we had plenty of wins outside of it as well. Two NY6 bowl wins emphasize that point if nothing else. You don’t win 90 games as a fluke. The B1G West was also better precovid. Even if that still doesnt make it good.
The Big Ten West is a tougher division than the SEC West. The tougher schedule just takes it out of the teams more. And they on average play more P5 teams than any SEC team.
This is mostly a joke but I’m so sick of people using the same logic to say the SEC is better.
Regardless of how anyone feels about UCF claiming the title that season, it's pretty cool that they beat Auburn in the same building Alabama beat Georgia in exactly 1 week later.
That and 2017 must've felt bitter for Auburn fans. They lost their ticket to the CFP in Atlanta vs Georgia, lost the Peach Bowl in Atlanta vs UCF who'd later claim a natty off beating them, and had to watch their 2 most bitter rivals duke it out for the CFP title, once again in Atlanta.
Sorry Auburn fans, I just felt the need to make note of this.
Some teams that that missed out (number of years): Penn State (6), Washington (3),Georgia (3), Ohio State (3), FSU (3), UCF (2), Notre Dame (2)
PSU clearly was screwed the 'most', but both FSU & UCF had undefeated years and was on the outside
Penn State would have made the playoffs in 6 or 7of the 10 years. They probably would've lost in the first round every time, but they would have made the playoffs.
Had the new format existed from the beginning of the playoff era, Ohio state would have made the playoff every single year. I think Bama is the only other team that can say that
….There was 1 regular season game after the MSU disaster. You guys kicked michigans ass, but you averaged 37 ppg that game that year. The MSU loss was a typical “game before the game” performance
It was far from typical, it was shitty weather ripe for running the ball, we had the best RB on the planet and Urban refused to have the ball handed to him
2007 regular season final BCS rankings:
#1 Ohio State (bye)
#2 LSU (bye)
#3 Virginia Tech (bye)
#4 Oklahoma (bye)
#5 Georgia vs #12 Florida
#6 Missouri vs #11 Arizona State
#7 USC vs #10 Hawaii
#8 Kansas vs #9 West Virginia
WHO YOU GOT??
TCU/Baylor got hosed in 15 (?). TCU was a juggernaut that year. Also the year Johnny and A&M beat OU, they were the best team in the country imo and would have won a playoff
2020 Florida was the second best team in the nation at the end of that year. Y'all were 8 points away in the regular season from being undefeated going into playing Bama. The bowl game against Oklahoma just seemed like no one was trying though.
Penn state, Wisconsin, Oregon, Oklahoma, Ohio state, Michigan, LSU, Tennessee to guess a few.
Isn't the question really just: "which teams have finished the regular season with a ranking between #5 and #12 the most instances from 2014 thru 2023?"
Baylor & TCU in '14. Stanford in '15.
Penn State & Georgia would've been huge beneficiaries during that time frame.
2020 would've been pretty interesting, if for nothing else, the following teams would've been in: Cincinnati, Iowa State, Indiana, Coastal Carolina
Of the teams that were 1 loss P5 teams or P5 top 12 ranked conference champions and were unselected, Ohio State was left out 4 times. They also missed as the #6 team as a 2 loss team in 2021.
So 50% of the years they were on the cusp. (The other 50% of the time they made the playoffs)
No other team comes close to that, especially not being teams who really truly could have been contenders for the championship.
Penn State could make an argument, but they were only truly close in 2016. I’m not going to go through the whole selection process and see if they’d have made it in as an 11th or 10th ranked team. They were 10th this year, 11th last year, 10th in 2019, 12th in 2018 (would have been pushed out by a G5 auto bid), 9th in 2017, and 5th in 2016. So that’s also 5 but idk if being 11th in 2022 would have pushed them out or not.
There are a few LSU teams that wouldn’t have mailed in the rest of year post Bama in a 12 team era.
Would have been interesting to see how Les Miles and those Fournette teams would have responded.
Oddly Boise wasn't in playoff position much. Even with the G5 auto bid they only get in once, in 2014. The second half of the BCS era would be littered with Boise appearances though.
Depends on your criteria. Penn St, Wisconsin, Utah if you are talking about teams that would have made it but never did in the 4 team era. None of those schools would have had a shot to win the Natty though.
If you are talking schools that missed in years they could have won? Alabama, Ohio State, and Georgia.
This one is tough because with an expanded playoff. I would imagine we see more talent heading to different universities.
If you can win a playoff game or two, you can recruit bigger names. If you recruit bigger names, you win more, bring in more bigger names, etc.
Penn State didn’t make the CFP a single time in the 10 years of the 4-team era but would have made it six times with a 12-team playoff (‘16, ‘17, ‘18, ‘19, ‘22, and ‘23).
We’ve been second in a 1-team system, third in the two-team system and fifth in the four-team system. I just know we are going to be 12th and bumped for an autobid this year.
They would not have made the 12 team playoff in 2018. They would have been pushed out by Fresno State.
I don’t think so because UCF was already higher ranked g5 champ plus the p5 champs all in the top 12
Oh shit you’re right, totally forgot about UCF being G5 at the time
It’s been one year…
I keep forgetting they're p5
P5 doesn’t really exist anymore tbf.
P4 gang rise
Oh honey…
Oh yeah forgot ACC is about to get whacked too
UCF has always been a P5 team, and we have always been at war with Eastasia.
i thought we were at war with eurasia last week?
NO! We've always been at war with Eastasia and Eurasia has always been our ally!
Not even a full year lol
Go easy on him, he's still drunk from winning the natty.
We would have been in the playoffs in 2017 and 2018 at a minimum. A 12 team playoff may have also helped get better coaches and players so who knows whether we would have been in morw
According to the following article they would have made it: https://www.pennlive.com/pennstatefootball/2022/12/if-cfp-was-always-12-teams-how-many-would-psu-have-been-in-heres-who-where-lions-wouldve-played-jones.html?outputType=amp
Ladies and gentlemen, James Franklin!
Six first round losses
2016 no way. I’m aware we got smacked by Michigan earlier in the year but come December we were the hottest team in the country along with USC
I think you were better in 2017
I do too, but I also think the 2017 playoff was absolutely stacked. Either way those were the best 2 teams of the Franklin era imo
I will forever hold that 49-10 Michigan win over you guys. However, it is undeniable that you turned it all around after that.
There’s also the inconvenient fact that by the end of that game, we were damn close to having to suit up kids from the freaking Blue Band sousaphone section to play linebacker.
Wasn't like half their starters or more out for that game?
Literally impossible since they would've gotten the first-round bye in 2016.
The PAC-12 champ, almost every year.
2015 Stanford with Christian McCaffrey really could have made a run for the NC.
He certainly ran all over us in the Rose Bowl.
He ran over everybody. I don't miss watching him go to work on us.
Yeah but i think to the ND fan's point, Rose Bowl McCaffrey that year was one of the all time CFB performances, really cemented his legacy. If that game was a playoff game, he might have just led Stanford to win it all.
Seriously. I mean, Iowa wasn’t badly outmatched that year, except McCaffrey. Who just was totally unstoppable.
Or even the runner up this year
you wanna lose a THIRD time this year?!
Nightmare fuel. 2 was fucking bad enough
Hey could’ve been Bucs vs Saints in 2020, Saints blanked them twice but then in the playoffs, Bucs and Brady won when it mattered
No shade but It would've been funny as to have Oregon and UW play the championship just for UW to win by 3 again. I firmly believe Oregon was a top 4 team and got shafted by having to face UW twice.
When conferences adopted conference championship games 15-20 years ago this was the argument against them. All it does is harm one of the two teams, while doing little to boost the winner. Washington would have made it regardless, Oregon would have been the top 1-loss. But, the 4-team playoff forced the hands of the last-adopters (the Big-12) because a team that won a conference championship > a team that did not. Part of me wonders if we go back to not having conference championship games now that the top 4 champions all get BYEs. So if you are in this situation in the B1G with Ohio State being undefeated and 1-loss Oregon playing them in the rematch... it doesn't help the conference to play the game. Ohio State loses and they are a 5-8 seed. Ohio State wins and they get a bye. Oregon wins and they get the bye. Oregon loses and they are the 8-12 seed. If you don't play the game at all Ohio State gets the bye and Oregon gets a 5-8 seed. So the conference championship game is going to go back to actively harming the conference just like it did before the 4-team playoff. Best case is your underdog upsets your favorite and you end up with the same outcome as you would have had had you just not played the game.
I think this year really proves that 12 is more than sufficient to show who the top teams were. 8 team tournament this year would've been perfect because 9-12 were simply a step below the top 8. If you don't get in in those last 4 spots then you definitely were just not deserving. Having the bye helps but it still isnt that massive a difference barring injuries. Either way 12 might be too much but it's the only way to guarantee no one gets seriously snubbed like FSU/Oregon/Georgia did this year
I like your idea. Remove the CCGs since we already are doing away with divisions. Why have OSU play Michigan Nov 23 and then again in early December and then maybe again in the playoff.
It just gets a little ridiculous to award conference titles to teams that play only partial round robins without at least making 1 and 2 play at the end in a conference title game.
My opinion is conferences should be small enough to allow for round robins. But my ideas don't make as much money : (
Because if it worked once for many money then it'll work infinity times for infinity money. Who cares that its only once a year nature is part of the specialness!
Fully agree, Oregon and Washington both felt like two of the four best teams
Oregon wasn't better than Michigan, Washington, Texas, Alabama, or Georgia. They were next tier with FSU (w/ a healthy Travis) and Ohio State.
Are we just forgetting OSU was a missed block away from beating Michigan?
I was terrified until the interception that MHJ was going to pull in a touchdown as the clock ran out!
I’m not sure the bucks could have beaten Oregon with our QB situation last year
> The PAC-12 The what now?
The Pacific 12 conference was a collegiate athletic conference from 2012-2024. It was robbed and murdered by television executives and their allies in the Big Ten, Big 12, and Atlantic Coast Conference for money.
The ACC didn’t murder the PAC-12. If anything letting Stanford and Cal in was like giving sanctuary to refugees from a war thats coming for us next.
Especially. Murdered by a person named Larry Scott.
lol the Big 12 was anything but an ally to the Pac 12 they repeatedly tried to kill us so we did em in
Yeah, no shit. I literally wrote the Big 12 robbed and murdered the Pac 12.
I think the pac 12 would have survived had there been a 12 team playoff
The Athletic had an article examining how many times a team would have made the CFP in the BCS thru CFP era. It’s a bit longer of a time period than you’re talking about but along the same line of thinking. https://theathletic.com/3565760/2022/09/05/college-football-playoff-12-teams-bcs/?source=user_shared_article - 18 Ohio State - 16 Oklahoma - 13 Alabama - 12 Florida - 11 Georgia - 11 LSU - 10 Florida State, Oregon - 9 Notre Dame, USC - 8 Boise State, Kansas State, TCU, Wisconsin - 7 Clemson, Michigan, Penn State, Texas There is more on the list if you go to the article.
This is also only up to 2021
Why does this make me even more sad?
It makes *you* sad… we got zero appearances
Think of all those opportunities to get embarrassed by an SEC team that Oklahoma missed.
Hey, that’s not fair. We’re perfectly capable of being embarrassed by a team from any conference.
Hey now, we embarrassed them a couple times. Just never the super important games.
This solidifies my thought on how much more fun this is going to be. Not just the same seven teams
Penn State. No question.
Also came to mention Penn State. Not sure if Franklin could get over the hump and take them deep into the playoffs but they'd have made several appearances.
And he’s won some ny6 bowl games in matchups that could have been 1st round playoff games. Obviously ignoring this years ole miss game with a skeleton defense
Penn States would have been playoff teams in 2017, 2019, and 2022 all won their bowl games. In 2016, they lost a shootout to USC (that team that went undefeated after switching to Sam Darnold)
In my faulty memory I thought it was Juju Smith-Schuster that was burning us for most of USC’s points but he wasn’t even close to their leading scorer/receiver. Deontay Burnett had 13 catches for 164 yards and 3 tds to lead USC. That game was a nuts shootout. PSU was up 42-27 all the way up until half way through the third quarter and ended up losing 52-49
Cemented Barkleys status as a Penn State legend . That game was crazy.
With Franklin where he's at right now, I could see him picking up some playoff wins but I struggle to envision him as a genuine NC threat. However, coaches have repeatedly throughout history broken through various ceilings and have elevated both their coaching and their program. For example, it took Tom Osborne like 15'ish years to finally pull in an NC and before that he had tons of 4-10 ranked teams. I like Penn State as a program and Franklin strikes me as a good dude. I hope he breaks through the ceiling and gets Penn State operating at its full potential (which is being a consistent NC threat IMO).
PSU is in the same category as ND (no natties since the start of the BCS), Tennessee (1 natty near the start of the BCS), OU (1 natty near the start of the BCS), and UMich (1 natty recently only with one of the top coaches of all time) in that they should make a 12-team CFP fairly regularly (1/3rd to half the time) but almost never actually win the natty unless all stars are aligned.
> win the natty unless all stars are aligned. To be fair, that's essentially every program except the fully armed and operational Death Stars and even Death Stars get blown up and cast down from time to time. Even programs that I'd personally consider to be armed and operational Death Stars often need stuff to align, like tOSU. Heck, this year UGA missed the playoffs despite having an excellent team.
Shoot uga was the sec’s penn state until 2 years ago
Heck, Michigan was the B1G's Penn State until 3 years ago.
They wish they were penn state during the Rodriguez/ early hoke years.
I love how everyone likes to pretend that Michigan wasn't ready to move on from Harbaugh up until 21. The PSU/UM series was 3-3 until then.
But not every program would consistently make the 12-team CFP 1/3rd to half the time.
So we're the MSU basketball program. Damn it.
Yeah Michigan went through the same thing with Harbaugh. 6 years of top 10-15ish teams that could not make the leap until they did make the leap. If we’re looking backward at who would have benefited over the last decade, I think the perception of winning a few round of 8/12 games and losing to very good top 5 teams would look a lot better than winning “meaningless” bowl games
> losing to very good top 5 teams would look a lot better than winning “meaningless” bowl games definitely agree there. one thing I have to give tOSU props for is that they have been a consistent NC threat year after year after year. Alabama, Florida, Michigan, USC, Notre Dame, and pretty much every other program goes through cycles with downturns being pretty natural. Penn State has rebounded from the scandal, now they need to punch through.
That’s something both of our fan bases know well: Ohio State has literally never been bad. They’ve had some isolated .500 seasons, but never a stretch of bad teams. It’s why they talk about John Cooper, who won shares of 3 big ten titles and had an 111-43-4 record, like he’s Rich Rod or John L Smith. That’s literally as bad as they can imagine. I pray they learn what it’s like to go through 3 straight 4 to 7 win seasons. It’s why I think there’s an argument that Ohio State is the best job in college football. Their floor is above most teams ceilings
This question makes me sad every time
Feel those 2016-2017 teams they had could’ve really made some noise with Mcsorely, Godwin, Saquon. Great shout
Gotta give Gesicki a shout.
The 2016 team was a different squad at the end of the year than the team that lost to Michigan and Pitt.
Was going to say Oregon, but Penn St.
I think our 2017 team could have beaten anyone on a neutral field. Held the lead more than anyone in the country that year, and had two road losses in back to back weeks by a total of 4 points…to a twelve and ten win teams. Saquon, Gesicki, McSorley, and all time receptions leader DaeSean Hamilton, They had some dudes that year.
If PSU beats OSU in 2017 I think they have 2 or 3 more big ten titles under Franklin
Blowing 4th quarter leads against OSU is the most frustrating thing about being a Penn State fan in the Franklin era. I know at least 3 games they led in the 4th quarter since winning in 2016.
Just a consistent #7-#11 team, year after year
There’s a decent chance Alabama would have made every single playoff year to date. Same could likely be said about Ohio State?
Definitely would have helped us out of a number of those 5th or 6th place finishes
I still think you all would have won the championship this year had you gotten in.
So I like that our team improved enough to make the playoffs, but I did want to see Michigan and UGA tussle this year. Georgia looked unbeatable and I was paying attention enough to Michigan to know they had improved significantly over last year. Was shocked to see us up in the fourth quarter tbh.
Depends on if the Bama rematch somehow ended up in Atlanta. If that happened, nah it’s another L. Anywhere else, though, yeah they’d win it all.
For real, we unbeatable in Atlanta apparently
To be clear, it would not have been in Atlanta.
Ohio state absolutely would have. I think our lowest finish in the CFB rankings for the 4 team era was 7. Where did Bama finish in 2019? I remember it being the first year of that format that Bama missed out on a NY6 game. Just don’t remember their exact ranking
Shutdown Fullcast has observed, correctly I think, that Ohio State is always the most important team, because pretty much every year, they either got in somewhat controversially or got left out somewhat controversially. So this seems right to me. I wonder who will be the new Ohio State for the 12-team. Probably somebody like Penn State? And boy, if that doesn’t say a lot about how the standard is being watered down! 🤣
It’s true. 7 out of 10 cfp years OSU was some varying degree of controversial in the final ranking
2019 was definitely not a controversy. 2022, I’d say was also not all that controversial, they were the only 1 loss team left standing. Same could be said for 2016, despite what Penn State claims.
Yeah no one was involved in the committee’s bull shit more than we were
With USC, Oregon and Washington all joining our conference, the new Ohio State will be Ohio State.
10-2 regular season. 5 point loss to LSU and 3 point loss to Auburn. I think Bama gets in to the playoff. Bama was killing everyone prior to the Tua ankle injury. Mac Jones obviously had the ability to win a natty, but was slow his first few games getting up to speed as a starter.
Yeah only year that would’ve been questionable for Bama was 2019 but I think the committee would’ve put them in. Georgia would’ve gained 4 additional appearances
Yeah, Alabama was 13th in the final CFP rankings. I think we miss the playoffs. They finished in the Top 10 but that was after the bowl game against Michigan.
Georgia would have made it every year of Kirby’s tenure but his first
Yeah I think the easy answer to this is Alabama, Georgia, or Ohio State. The rest of the answers would have almost certainly lost in the first or second round of the playoffs anyway. These three would have had legitimate championship shots nearly every year.
I wonder what that 2015 Ohio State team could’ve done in the playoff. We underperformed all year but still won almost every game because the talent in that team was absurd. Getting into the playoff pissed off after the MSU loss would’ve been fun to watch
I feel like Penn State could have benefited from an expanded playoff would they win a championship maybe not,but they definitely could have been a tough match up in the early rounds. Georgia definitely this past season and a few other seasons. USC had three seasons since 2014 where they could have made it in an expanded playoff I doubt they would have done anything. TCU and Baylor that one year for sure. FSU past season. TOSU multiple times Utes maybe?
The 2016 team may have won a game or two but they probably would've lost eventually because the defense was not that good.
GEQBUS overcomes mediocre defense
2016 Penn State had all the wind at their back after beating Ohio State and rode it to a conference championship, but got boxed out for a couple bad early losses. 2014 TCU and 2014 Baylor were a combo-meal in 4-team sadness. Both of them (but TCU especially) would've really benefitted.
Only the loss to Michigan was really bad and Penn State's linebackers were all injured. Penn State's defense wasn't exceptional that year but LB was by far their best position. They lost by 3 to Pitt who would also beat Clemson that season.
Baylor, Utah, Penn State, and Wisconsin are the big 4. FSU only got left out once.
FSU would have been in the 2015 and 2016 playoffs if there were 12 teams.
That goes against my agenda so I will choose to ignore it
Get him on the commitee right now
FSU left out again I see.
Utah would’ve made it in 2022, 2021, and probably 2019 (not sure exactly the autobid situation).
Home game in Utah might just blow up some of these teams.
Home night game at least. Utah is mortal during the day.
Idk if we get a home game but it would have been fun cause Utah lives to be a spoiler
Georgia in 2018 and 2023 would’ve been dangerous.
Make the 2023 12-teamer *monkey’s paw curls* Rematch with Bama in Atlanta. 😈 Nah but fr y’all would’ve been dangerous. That’s why we had to be the ones to cut that 3-peat short. No one else was gonna get the job done.
This is true only the GOAT’s deal with Satan could stop Kirby’s Dawgs.
I know I’m biased but definitely Georgia here. I don’t think a lot the other teams being mentioned could actually win the playoffs, just get in.
That’s my take away from this question which team could’ve gotten in and won the thing.
2015 osu, 21 osu, and 23 osu all “could” have too I’d say. 21 is the biggest stretch and only say that because bamas receivers ended up getting hurt and Bama was able to pass on Georgia in the sec championship game. Osu could have put up points but that defense was poopy. Likely would have looked a lot like the michigan game that year though. 15 osu was probably the most talented team that just didn’t play many games well. And this past year was very stacked at the top with a lot of teams that had a realistic chance at it
I think Georgia would have made the playoff every year since 2017. I would have liked another shot at Bama in 2018 and 2023, but I also don’t mind that we avoided them in 2022, which might not have happened if they made the CFP also. They had two losses by a total of 4 points, and while I think Georgia was the better team last year, when has that mattered?
This is the right way to answer the question. Too many people naming teams that would have made the playoffs and lost first round. IMO the question is asking who got snubbed that could have actually won a title
Biased take but Wisconsin had the most wins of any team to not make the playoff during the playoff era. We would’ve hosted playoff games first round 3 times had it been a 12 team playoff
That is more a perk of playing in the worst, or second worst division in cfb.
The Big Ten West was both the worst and second worst division. It’s bad and defies all logic.
The Big Ten East was a PPV dog fight every week, with PB&Js and punches being thrown just to see who could make it to Indy. The Big Ten West was just Iowa, Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Purdue all arriving at a four-way stop at the same time and trying to wave the other teams through. Peak Midwest.
“Trying to wave the other teams through.” Damn, that is a perfect description of the Big Ten West. No team *earned* a division title. The other teams were just too polite to accept it.
I mean the Big Ten West has only *sucked* since 2020. Before that, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Northwestern were all consistently good. Hell, it had three top-15 teams in 2019!
It’s true but we had plenty of wins outside of it as well. Two NY6 bowl wins emphasize that point if nothing else. You don’t win 90 games as a fluke. The B1G West was also better precovid. Even if that still doesnt make it good.
The west always had 2 teams that were legit except for maybe the last 2 or 3 years.
Yeah, it was half a joke. Wisconsin was obviously pretty damn good over the past decade.
The Big Ten West is a tougher division than the SEC West. The tougher schedule just takes it out of the teams more. And they on average play more P5 teams than any SEC team. This is mostly a joke but I’m so sick of people using the same logic to say the SEC is better.
Def not the 2017 UCF team, we won that natty fair and square.
So many comments and hardly any UCF… I’m not saying they would’ve won it but deserved to be in playoff for sure.
We would have been in twice. 2017 and 2018.
Regardless of how anyone feels about UCF claiming the title that season, it's pretty cool that they beat Auburn in the same building Alabama beat Georgia in exactly 1 week later. That and 2017 must've felt bitter for Auburn fans. They lost their ticket to the CFP in Atlanta vs Georgia, lost the Peach Bowl in Atlanta vs UCF who'd later claim a natty off beating them, and had to watch their 2 most bitter rivals duke it out for the CFP title, once again in Atlanta. Sorry Auburn fans, I just felt the need to make note of this.
And then would later lose their coach to us (i know Gus got fired, dont @ me)
LOL if not for you replying, I would've let it sit in my 1st paragraph that Georgia beat Alabama when it was the other way around, so thanks for that
Why would I be upset that UCF won a title over our two biggest rivals?
2014 TCU/Baylor
Some teams that that missed out (number of years): Penn State (6), Washington (3),Georgia (3), Ohio State (3), FSU (3), UCF (2), Notre Dame (2) PSU clearly was screwed the 'most', but both FSU & UCF had undefeated years and was on the outside
Utah also missed 3 times.
Penn State would have made the playoffs in 6 or 7of the 10 years. They probably would've lost in the first round every time, but they would have made the playoffs.
2016 Penn State would've been top 4 with the current rules so at least we couldn't lose in the first round that year.
Ohio State in 2015, looked like a different team after the MSU disaster
Had the new format existed from the beginning of the playoff era, Ohio state would have made the playoff every single year. I think Bama is the only other team that can say that
Alabama might not have made it in 2019 (finished 13th in CFP rankings)
They would have made it if the committee knew that was the cutoff though, lol
This is one that sticks out in my mind. Way, way, way better team than the one that made the playoff the following year.
Ohio State 2015 has a lot of similarities to 2016 Clemson imo
….There was 1 regular season game after the MSU disaster. You guys kicked michigans ass, but you averaged 37 ppg that game that year. The MSU loss was a typical “game before the game” performance
It was far from typical, it was shitty weather ripe for running the ball, we had the best RB on the planet and Urban refused to have the ball handed to him
2007 regular season final BCS rankings: #1 Ohio State (bye) #2 LSU (bye) #3 Virginia Tech (bye) #4 Oklahoma (bye) #5 Georgia vs #12 Florida #6 Missouri vs #11 Arizona State #7 USC vs #10 Hawaii #8 Kansas vs #9 West Virginia WHO YOU GOT??
That would have been an incredibly fun playoff
Pete Carroll vs June Jones. 120 points could have been scored.
Every year that we had the CFP that OSU was not in it, they were the first team out except this past year
TCU/Baylor got hosed in 15 (?). TCU was a juggernaut that year. Also the year Johnny and A&M beat OU, they were the best team in the country imo and would have won a playoff
Penn State, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, any G5 team
Penn State is the obvious answer but Florida also makes 3 playoffs in a row from 2018-2020 with a 12 team playoff 🥲
2020 Florida was the second best team in the nation at the end of that year. Y'all were 8 points away in the regular season from being undefeated going into playing Bama. The bowl game against Oklahoma just seemed like no one was trying though.
Did someone say 2020 Florida? Inject that game into my veins
Penn state, Wisconsin, Oregon, Oklahoma, Ohio state, Michigan, LSU, Tennessee to guess a few. Isn't the question really just: "which teams have finished the regular season with a ranking between #5 and #12 the most instances from 2014 thru 2023?"
Baylor & TCU in '14. Stanford in '15. Penn State & Georgia would've been huge beneficiaries during that time frame. 2020 would've been pretty interesting, if for nothing else, the following teams would've been in: Cincinnati, Iowa State, Indiana, Coastal Carolina
2020 A&M
This one. Right here. We still should’ve been in regardless.
And 2012
Georgia would have gained another 4 appearances.
2018 UGA.
And 2023
Ole Miss would have had likely 3-4 appearances if it started out at 12 teams.
2019 Alabama, 2023 Georgia.
Mizzou would have made several. But not the biggest benefit
2018, 2019, 2020, and 2023 Georgia
Ohio state, of course. We would've made the playoff every single year if it was 12 teams.
Of the teams that were 1 loss P5 teams or P5 top 12 ranked conference champions and were unselected, Ohio State was left out 4 times. They also missed as the #6 team as a 2 loss team in 2021. So 50% of the years they were on the cusp. (The other 50% of the time they made the playoffs) No other team comes close to that, especially not being teams who really truly could have been contenders for the championship. Penn State could make an argument, but they were only truly close in 2016. I’m not going to go through the whole selection process and see if they’d have made it in as an 11th or 10th ranked team. They were 10th this year, 11th last year, 10th in 2019, 12th in 2018 (would have been pushed out by a G5 auto bid), 9th in 2017, and 5th in 2016. So that’s also 5 but idk if being 11th in 2022 would have pushed them out or not.
> 12th in 2018 (would have been pushed out by a G5 auto bid), There was already a G5 team ranked ahead of us. We make it that year
There are a few LSU teams that wouldn’t have mailed in the rest of year post Bama in a 12 team era. Would have been interesting to see how Les Miles and those Fournette teams would have responded.
Alabama and Georgia. Maybe Ohio State. Imagine Nick Saban getting in the playoffs the years he barely missed. It’s still going to be the same teams.
Baylor and TCU in the first year of the CFP 😭
2023 Georgia
A&M - 2012 with Johnny (10-2 and boat raced OU) and 2020 with Mond.
Boise State would’ve made the playoffs a few times at least. Might’ve gotten an invite to the big 12 by now
Oddly Boise wasn't in playoff position much. Even with the G5 auto bid they only get in once, in 2014. The second half of the BCS era would be littered with Boise appearances though.
Yeah, what we needed was a playoff system in the BCS era. If only.
Wisconsin
Alabama and Georgia both would have more natties if it had been 12 teams over the past decade or so.
Depends on your criteria. Penn St, Wisconsin, Utah if you are talking about teams that would have made it but never did in the 4 team era. None of those schools would have had a shot to win the Natty though. If you are talking schools that missed in years they could have won? Alabama, Ohio State, and Georgia.
This one is tough because with an expanded playoff. I would imagine we see more talent heading to different universities. If you can win a playoff game or two, you can recruit bigger names. If you recruit bigger names, you win more, bring in more bigger names, etc.