Perhaps a better methodology would be to average the visiting team’s performance at each stadium rather than the home team’s performance when not at its stadium.
5 years is too small of a timespan for establishing home field advantage imo. That's something established over decades and can heavily vary depending on talent, how good the team is at the time, the ability of the coaching staff to handle road games, etc. If a team constantly wins at home despite bad teams, like Florida for example, that's a clear home field advantage. You need to see the teams in good and bad eras, and that's something that can take years and years to change.
Yeah you need 20+ years to look through multiple coaching staffs. I mean A&M had a single coach that entire timespan and he was pretty bad at road games, which would probably explain the disparity in results rather than a real "home field advantage."
They were also incredibly good at Kyle Field in the 90’s under a good coach. Coaching and talent is always more important than the stadium lol. Saban’s Alabama teams could skull fuck anyone on a little league field.
If the ratings change over the course of a SEASON, then recent success is definitely weighted more.
You have to be careful going back too far, though. Kyle Field in 2000 held 22k fewer people. Lane Stadium's added 12k and closed in the south end zone in that time span.
I'd probably put Doak near the top of the list for the 90s, and the Swamp not far behind it. Noles were 62-1-1 from 1990-2000 at home, and 58-14 on the road. And that's with UF-FSU alternating home games and every single year it being a top 10 matchup (4/11 it involved the #1 team). Spurrier's best at Doak was a tie.
Spurrier was good but he lost a bit more - 63-4 at home, 49-21-1 on the road. And UF playing the WLOCP as a "road" game doesn't really matter since they dominated that rivalry in the 90s. Tennessee won a title in the 90s and still couldn't get a win in the Swamp. Bowden only got 2 wins there.
I kind of agree but the toughest places to play already has a recency bias built in due to it being a dynamic statistic that changes with how you do in the game. I think you could go too far back on this stat especially with how quickly and often stadium renovations are nowadays.
I would assume Autzen is a lot tougher to play at nowadays compared to before Chip Kelly days.
Oklahoma fans might disagree.
But for real, Bellotti era was pretty strong for home field advantage, and it was era for most Oregon fans where we went from hoping for wins to expecting them, especially at home.
I can speak with authority that Autzen in the 2000s was an incredibly difficult place in which to win. So difficult in fact that it felt almost unfair.
That's fair, its hard to say. Home field advantage is a you know it when you see it thing. The only teams that I feel have a real big one are Auburn, Florida, NC State, and Clemson.
It’s a subjective ranking. There’s no one way to skin it, and it depends on each team.
If you analyze the Jimbo era at A&M then you may be right there but if you don’t include how Kyle field was 55-4-1 at home in the 90’s with 31 straight wins in 90-95 and 22 straight from 96-2000 then I’d say that should be included in the data set.
A&M’s issues are with coaching. If a guy ran FSU into the ground, he will run anywhere in the ground.
Data from too long of a time span will get diluted by the fact that lots of stadiums have been remodeled/expanded/rebuilt over the decades.
Like trying to look at Kyle Field from 20 years ago has nothing to do with a video game set in the year 2024. So much has changed since then.
12th feels about right for C-F. Unfortunately, I have no idea who a lot of these stadiums are when it is done exclusively by name. For example, Protective or Johnny Floyd. Tiger, Autzen, Williams-Brice and a bunch of others I can pick out.
This is an interesting concept, but I don't think the methodology is very. First, the sample size is too small. 5 seasons means ~30 game sample which is way too small. Second, the quality of the opponent isn't accounted for. Smaller schools will often have a stronger road schedule than home schedule.
I think something like the difference in college football reference'e Strength of Record between home and away games could prove more useful. This way you can account for the quality of the opponent and reward teams for playing up even in losses.
CMU at 11??
Any team traveling to Mt.Pleasant would be let down with that place is in reality. Explains how this could throw them off and make it easier for CMU to look good at home.
2021 has to be driving a ton of UW's low ranking, because outside of that we have only lost 3 home games over your timespan (no home losses in 2018, 2022, 2023).
I agree with the other commenter that you would really need a longer timespan to keep outliers from skewing the results.
I'm confused about Arizona St. On one hand, we've been ass for 2 years so our ranking if anything is on the high end. On the other hand, we're above ND, Penn State, Iowa and USC who've lapped our W-L record for the last 5 years?
I’d be interested in analyzing things like delay of game penalties, 3rd down conversions, etc.
For example, I’d venture to say that teams playing at Penn State or LSU are much more likely to incur delay of game penalties due to crowd noise.
I love projects like this because it forces people to actually think about and define terms that we throw around all the time like "home field advantage." Does that simply mean your stadium sells out and it's loud? Does it mean your team rarely loses at home? Does it mean your team plays significantly better at home than on the road? There's no wrong answer and it's fun to analyze from each perspective. I like this one.
This is an interesting idea, but the methodology unfortunately lends credence to the concept that stats can easily be manipulated to tell almost any story.
107??? Jesus. In all reality we gotta be closer to top 25 than 100 right?? lmao sheesh
I mean, the worst BYU team in a decade would’ve beaten OU in Provo last year without that pick 6 on the 1 yard line😭
The fact you have MTSU as 3 and UGA at 44 is ridiculous, and not because I’m a Georgia fan. My mom is a MTSU grad and season ticket holder. My parents constantly mention how few fans/ even students show up for the game (not saying that nobody shoes up just not sold out or even close) With the hire of Derick Mason they are excited that he might excite the fan base, there words.
In contrast UGA has sold out the stadium every game since 2021 and before Covid had the 3rd longest sellout streak. If you’re looking at win loss record at home then…
Nope; did you account for weather, injuries, time of day/night, relative rankings/potential, etc.? This is why I hate metrics.
Jordan-Hare in Auburn #53?? Seriously??? Granted I’m biased, but ask SEC anybody, you’ll get top 3 or 4; never mind nationally.
All I know from the EA CFB rankings is this
Kyle Field - Texas A&M
Scoreboard 2011
Bryant-Denny Stadium - Alabama
Scoreboard 2023
Tiger Stadium - LSU
They have scoreboard so they are the toughest
Ohio Stadium - Ohio State
Scoreboard 2005
Sanford Stadium - Georgia
Scoreboard in Atlanta 1957
Beaver Stadium - Penn State
Scoreboard 1990
Camp Randall Stadium - Wisconsin
Scoreboard 1939
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium - Oklahoma
Scoreboard 1922 (fun trivia)
Doak S. Campbell Stadium - Florida State
Never played each other
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium - Florida
Scoreboard 1940
And people troll us about not being blue bloods lol.
Well, I for one love the results. Carry on good sir
This just rewards teams for shitty road performance vs home.
Perhaps a better methodology would be to average the visiting team’s performance at each stadium rather than the home team’s performance when not at its stadium.
5 years is too small of a timespan for establishing home field advantage imo. That's something established over decades and can heavily vary depending on talent, how good the team is at the time, the ability of the coaching staff to handle road games, etc. If a team constantly wins at home despite bad teams, like Florida for example, that's a clear home field advantage. You need to see the teams in good and bad eras, and that's something that can take years and years to change.
What time span would you analyze? I think start from the year 2000 and see how it looks.
Yeah you need 20+ years to look through multiple coaching staffs. I mean A&M had a single coach that entire timespan and he was pretty bad at road games, which would probably explain the disparity in results rather than a real "home field advantage."
They were also incredibly good at Kyle Field in the 90’s under a good coach. Coaching and talent is always more important than the stadium lol. Saban’s Alabama teams could skull fuck anyone on a little league field. If the ratings change over the course of a SEASON, then recent success is definitely weighted more.
What’s this nonsense about multiple coaching staffs in the last 20 years?
Maybe they're talking about when your players come back to join the staff after they've been away from the program a few years?
You have to be careful going back too far, though. Kyle Field in 2000 held 22k fewer people. Lane Stadium's added 12k and closed in the south end zone in that time span.
That's true, this is all a crap shoot anyway lol.
Kyle field in the 90’s was probably the toughest place to play in the country
I'd probably put Doak near the top of the list for the 90s, and the Swamp not far behind it. Noles were 62-1-1 from 1990-2000 at home, and 58-14 on the road. And that's with UF-FSU alternating home games and every single year it being a top 10 matchup (4/11 it involved the #1 team). Spurrier's best at Doak was a tie. Spurrier was good but he lost a bit more - 63-4 at home, 49-21-1 on the road. And UF playing the WLOCP as a "road" game doesn't really matter since they dominated that rivalry in the 90s. Tennessee won a title in the 90s and still couldn't get a win in the Swamp. Bowden only got 2 wins there.
Aren’t both Doak and the Swamp in the top 10 in the NCAA rankings? Seems like they could easily get to #1 in dynasty mode
I kind of agree but the toughest places to play already has a recency bias built in due to it being a dynamic statistic that changes with how you do in the game. I think you could go too far back on this stat especially with how quickly and often stadium renovations are nowadays. I would assume Autzen is a lot tougher to play at nowadays compared to before Chip Kelly days.
Oklahoma fans might disagree. But for real, Bellotti era was pretty strong for home field advantage, and it was era for most Oregon fans where we went from hoping for wins to expecting them, especially at home.
I can speak with authority that Autzen in the 2000s was an incredibly difficult place in which to win. So difficult in fact that it felt almost unfair.
That's fair, its hard to say. Home field advantage is a you know it when you see it thing. The only teams that I feel have a real big one are Auburn, Florida, NC State, and Clemson.
It’s a subjective ranking. There’s no one way to skin it, and it depends on each team. If you analyze the Jimbo era at A&M then you may be right there but if you don’t include how Kyle field was 55-4-1 at home in the 90’s with 31 straight wins in 90-95 and 22 straight from 96-2000 then I’d say that should be included in the data set. A&M’s issues are with coaching. If a guy ran FSU into the ground, he will run anywhere in the ground.
I mean it's like what 30 home games...I agree, small sample size bias at work here
Data from too long of a time span will get diluted by the fact that lots of stadiums have been remodeled/expanded/rebuilt over the decades. Like trying to look at Kyle Field from 20 years ago has nothing to do with a video game set in the year 2024. So much has changed since then.
I like your results therefore you must have used an excellent methodology.
This might be the first positive A&M post I've ever seen on this sub lol
On the surface, but when you think about it I think this just shows how awful we are on the road
That's it, I'm rioting.
If you think this is bizarre for Georgia Tech you don’t know Georgia Tech.
Especially since half of the test period was G**** C******.
12th feels about right for C-F. Unfortunately, I have no idea who a lot of these stadiums are when it is done exclusively by name. For example, Protective or Johnny Floyd. Tiger, Autzen, Williams-Brice and a bunch of others I can pick out.
Teams are listed with stadiums if you scroll, but the table doesn’t show up well on mobile.
Ah, thanks a lot for pointing that out. I see it now.
Perfectly balanced, as all things should be
This is an interesting concept, but I don't think the methodology is very. First, the sample size is too small. 5 seasons means ~30 game sample which is way too small. Second, the quality of the opponent isn't accounted for. Smaller schools will often have a stronger road schedule than home schedule. I think something like the difference in college football reference'e Strength of Record between home and away games could prove more useful. This way you can account for the quality of the opponent and reward teams for playing up even in losses.
CMU at 11?? Any team traveling to Mt.Pleasant would be let down with that place is in reality. Explains how this could throw them off and make it easier for CMU to look good at home.
Congrats on somehow out doing EA in making a terrible list.
2021 has to be driving a ton of UW's low ranking, because outside of that we have only lost 3 home games over your timespan (no home losses in 2018, 2022, 2023). I agree with the other commenter that you would really need a longer timespan to keep outliers from skewing the results.
This is unhinged, and I love it
I'm confused about Arizona St. On one hand, we've been ass for 2 years so our ranking if anything is on the high end. On the other hand, we're above ND, Penn State, Iowa and USC who've lapped our W-L record for the last 5 years?
bro, desert voodoo is real. nobody wants the arizona teams after dark at home...
I’d be interested in analyzing things like delay of game penalties, 3rd down conversions, etc. For example, I’d venture to say that teams playing at Penn State or LSU are much more likely to incur delay of game penalties due to crowd noise.
Utah better hope they never play against Purdue while ranked
I love projects like this because it forces people to actually think about and define terms that we throw around all the time like "home field advantage." Does that simply mean your stadium sells out and it's loud? Does it mean your team rarely loses at home? Does it mean your team plays significantly better at home than on the road? There's no wrong answer and it's fun to analyze from each perspective. I like this one.
Kyle Field the hardest place to play? I guess nobody told Appalachian State.
So, Protective Stadium has the biggest home-field advantage?
The ZOU
This is an interesting idea, but the methodology unfortunately lends credence to the concept that stats can easily be manipulated to tell almost any story.
I don’t know if I like Utah at 8 or BYU at 107 more
107??? Jesus. In all reality we gotta be closer to top 25 than 100 right?? lmao sheesh I mean, the worst BYU team in a decade would’ve beaten OU in Provo last year without that pick 6 on the 1 yard line😭
Bias confirmed!
The fact you have MTSU as 3 and UGA at 44 is ridiculous, and not because I’m a Georgia fan. My mom is a MTSU grad and season ticket holder. My parents constantly mention how few fans/ even students show up for the game (not saying that nobody shoes up just not sold out or even close) With the hire of Derick Mason they are excited that he might excite the fan base, there words. In contrast UGA has sold out the stadium every game since 2021 and before Covid had the 3rd longest sellout streak. If you’re looking at win loss record at home then…
But UGA is also good on the road so where's the added advantage? /s
That’s wild that being good on the road would have any effect on your home field advantage.
Nope; did you account for weather, injuries, time of day/night, relative rankings/potential, etc.? This is why I hate metrics. Jordan-Hare in Auburn #53?? Seriously??? Granted I’m biased, but ask SEC anybody, you’ll get top 3 or 4; never mind nationally.
Let's not change anything until Sept 8. After that you can have a strong home advantage, but for now #53 is good.
Hard agree. Win/loss stats are just one factor among half-a-dozen or more.
Good work, Thank you!
Wake Forest plays at Allegacy Stadium, did another bank have rights to the field?
All I know from the EA CFB rankings is this Kyle Field - Texas A&M Scoreboard 2011 Bryant-Denny Stadium - Alabama Scoreboard 2023 Tiger Stadium - LSU They have scoreboard so they are the toughest Ohio Stadium - Ohio State Scoreboard 2005 Sanford Stadium - Georgia Scoreboard in Atlanta 1957 Beaver Stadium - Penn State Scoreboard 1990 Camp Randall Stadium - Wisconsin Scoreboard 1939 Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium - Oklahoma Scoreboard 1922 (fun trivia) Doak S. Campbell Stadium - Florida State Never played each other Ben Hill Griffin Stadium - Florida Scoreboard 1940 And people troll us about not being blue bloods lol.