It's one of those cards that you either build your entire deck around or just never use. Throw it in a game mode where you aren't guaranteed to have the right cards available or the opponent might take them away and you just will never see it. It's not worth picking except in very specific situations cause it's that underpowered by itself
Xbox is just so incredibly Niche imo that it isn't worth it, you need to have the perfect deck and perfect match up otherwise its quite easily countered
The reason xbow has decent win rate in other modes is probably because xbow players had one tricked the decks for so long. Looking at the top xbow players' games, other than starting handing people, the xbow player needs to outplay the opponent(either by prediction or precise elixir count) to get a good lock, most games eventually turns into a 5 minute spell cycle game. The whole xbow 3.0 deck is centered around gaining an elixir advantage by using valuable defensive cards which is not always available in mega draft.
Can confirm, I play 3.0. Tho in midladder you can get a few more locks you still gotta work hard for those, and then I will usually throw the lead away cause I am not a pro (:
How often do players pick specific cards when the cards show up in the card pool? Using the Mega Draft card pool configuration by the game, we’ve calculated the pick rate for all of the cards.
Did you know that some cards have a higher probability to show up in the card pool? While some cards belong to a single category, others may appear in multiple categories. These factors contribute to different probabilities of them showing up, which we refer as _Show Up Rate_ in our charts.
For example, do you see Miner often in the card pool? That’s because he has the highest show up rate at 65.7%. Cards like Phoenix and Zappies only show up 15.4% of the time.
Despite this, you’ll see that players do tend to pick up Phoenix whenever they see it. So while overall the use rate for Phoenix is low (7%) because it doesn’t appear in the card pool often, it has the highest Pick Rate at 97%.
[Top 20 Card Picks](https://www.reddit.com/r/ClashRoyale/comments/12ymxc9/top_20_favorite_card_picks_for_mega_draft/)
In the top 20 chart, we compare the Pick Rate, Win Rate, Use Rate, and Show Up Rate of the 20 most-picked cards.
[Relationship of Pick Rate, Win Rate, and Show Up Rate](https://www.reddit.com/r/ClashRoyale/comments/12ymyqc/relationship_of_pick_rate_win_rate_and_show_up/)
In the scatter chart, we show the relationship of Pick Rate (x), Win Rate (y), and Show Up Rate (size).
You can find the live data for this at https://on.royaleapi.com/uc7dcardpick
Their sample size was in UC. I highly doubt that players in UC do not have all champs by this point. Even if there are any, it'd be only a handful compared to the total UC players it wouldn't be able to skew it enough.
Not sure if there are still a few nerds in this subreddit, or if they have all drowned in memes. In case there are:
Pick Rate is a very relevant stat in Mega Draft, but it was quite challenging to calculate, as it involved fairly complex multinomial probability. My background on the topic is limited, so maybe someone here knows the right way to solve the problem.
To publish this we settled for an approximation that seems to have a fairly low relative error, but I'm not fully satisfied with it. If anyone has a solid stats background and is able to crack it, I'd love to know about it.
This is the gist of the problem:
There are 10 categories of cards, and the 36 cards of each card pool are chosen randomly, with a specific number of picks per category.
The added complexity is due to cards being available in different categories.
So for example, if a card is drafted from Group 1 this may reduce the size of the remaining groups.
This seems to create n! complexity based on the amount of groups.
Whats wrong with literally just doing "number of times card ends up in a deck" divided by "number of times the card is offered" (i.e. ignoring the groups)? Thats the intuitive meaning of "pick rate" and its what most people are going to assume is being shown on your graph
This doesnt account for whether a card was first or eighth pick but I'm not sure how useful that information really is. Its not obvious to me how including the group level information is useful either, could you explain? (I'm assuming you want to avoid directly \[eg\] comparing Fireball to Golem or whatever, but is that sensbile?)
The issue is that we don't know how often a card is offered, that's what we want to find out. What we know is:
- the number of groups
- the number of picks per group
- the cards available in each group
Im confused, if you dont know how many times the card has been offered then how can you have a pick rate? Unless I'm misunderstanding, the information you have isnt sufficient to estimate a pick rate?
that’s kind of the point, you can estimate by calculating the probability that a card has to show up in the first place
(e.g. the card is in ‘n’ groups of size 10, so the probability is the sum from 1 to n of 1/(11-n))
but that means it doesn’t come from real data and so the relevant pick rate might be skewed
I'd guess because it needs a good supporting cast to be successful and you have to compete with your opponent for those as well as the fact that your opponent can plan to defend against it.
FYI for this chart we used data from Ultimate Champion only — so players at this level do know how to play the cards. The reason that it’s low is mostly because of synergy.
Xbow is not strong by itself and hasn't been for a long time, hell it's absolute peak in power was back at release when buildings had unlimited lifetime. It's a wincon that needs very specific supporting cards to be enabled, something that is very rare to achieve in draft mode, but because in all other modes it's playstyle is very niche and hated I don't see it ever getting a buff to be viable in draft (if it is kept). The only people keeping the cards winrate up are the one tricks
it's not garbage in general just in mega draft cause you can't exactly choose your deck and you could end up with something that doesn't work or your opponent can counter you
I'm not sure it would be appropriate to apply it to these results.
There is a correlation between pickrate and winrate; and it's that players pick more powerful cards more often.
So you'll see a positive trend indicating that players aren't picking randomly, but that's about all the relevance I can think of. I don't think there's a deeper correlation to uncover here.
Its just a really weak card. Even cards like Minion horde and Goblin hut can do well because your opponent may not have proper counters, but Xbow is countered by practically everything. The only reason it works in the one viable deck is because you can outcycle the counters or just turtle and fireball cycle.
A card isn’t this far off the graph for no reason. Its by far the worst card in this mode.
You could also say that ppl who see x bow also don't pick it because they haven't used it as much, and all the other reasons you said. And I think that x bow is just really trash in general since rocket nerf.
Right, but you can build your deck with tons of swarm and steal the better spells so it's more effective than in 1v1 due to the limited options
It won't work every game if they take fireball first or there's a big small spell selection but situationally it's a really good card
Xbow chilling all the way down there
It's one of those cards that you either build your entire deck around or just never use. Throw it in a game mode where you aren't guaranteed to have the right cards available or the opponent might take them away and you just will never see it. It's not worth picking except in very specific situations cause it's that underpowered by itself
Xbox is just so incredibly Niche imo that it isn't worth it, you need to have the perfect deck and perfect match up otherwise its quite easily countered
Maybe if they gave it an air targeting mode it would be better
Wouldn't that just make it worse though? It's not a defensive card, targeting air cards would just make it easier to distract from the tower
True maybe if it was made into a defensive card
if they "returned" it to air targeting you mean
The reason xbow has decent win rate in other modes is probably because xbow players had one tricked the decks for so long. Looking at the top xbow players' games, other than starting handing people, the xbow player needs to outplay the opponent(either by prediction or precise elixir count) to get a good lock, most games eventually turns into a 5 minute spell cycle game. The whole xbow 3.0 deck is centered around gaining an elixir advantage by using valuable defensive cards which is not always available in mega draft.
Can confirm, I play 3.0. Tho in midladder you can get a few more locks you still gotta work hard for those, and then I will usually throw the lead away cause I am not a pro (:
I have never used xbow in a deck
Didn't even notice lmao
I've unironically picked it a few times when I've had decent supporting cards and there isn't much left
Same. You need a very specific draft collection for xbow to work.
I once got fireball, log, archers, knight and tesla. Had to do it
Fate was calling for X-bow that game
Didn't lock a single time. He had zap, I had fireball log. You can figure out the rest... I won
Buff xbow
No
Well stats show it’s underwhelming and I still don’t understand where the misconception that xbow is no skill comes from
skill hoard cleaning house when there are no counters
So is the skill hut after the spear gob buff
You the game mode sucks when the hoardes and the huts are the most popular picks
How often do players pick specific cards when the cards show up in the card pool? Using the Mega Draft card pool configuration by the game, we’ve calculated the pick rate for all of the cards. Did you know that some cards have a higher probability to show up in the card pool? While some cards belong to a single category, others may appear in multiple categories. These factors contribute to different probabilities of them showing up, which we refer as _Show Up Rate_ in our charts. For example, do you see Miner often in the card pool? That’s because he has the highest show up rate at 65.7%. Cards like Phoenix and Zappies only show up 15.4% of the time. Despite this, you’ll see that players do tend to pick up Phoenix whenever they see it. So while overall the use rate for Phoenix is low (7%) because it doesn’t appear in the card pool often, it has the highest Pick Rate at 97%. [Top 20 Card Picks](https://www.reddit.com/r/ClashRoyale/comments/12ymxc9/top_20_favorite_card_picks_for_mega_draft/) In the top 20 chart, we compare the Pick Rate, Win Rate, Use Rate, and Show Up Rate of the 20 most-picked cards. [Relationship of Pick Rate, Win Rate, and Show Up Rate](https://www.reddit.com/r/ClashRoyale/comments/12ymyqc/relationship_of_pick_rate_win_rate_and_show_up/) In the scatter chart, we show the relationship of Pick Rate (x), Win Rate (y), and Show Up Rate (size). You can find the live data for this at https://on.royaleapi.com/uc7dcardpick
I wonder if some people not having unlocked a certain champion etc has impact on its pick rate.
Their sample size was in UC. I highly doubt that players in UC do not have all champs by this point. Even if there are any, it'd be only a handful compared to the total UC players it wouldn't be able to skew it enough.
I'm just a lonely UC player who still hasn't managed to get a monk somehow :( (But what you said is absolutely correct)
Not sure if there are still a few nerds in this subreddit, or if they have all drowned in memes. In case there are: Pick Rate is a very relevant stat in Mega Draft, but it was quite challenging to calculate, as it involved fairly complex multinomial probability. My background on the topic is limited, so maybe someone here knows the right way to solve the problem. To publish this we settled for an approximation that seems to have a fairly low relative error, but I'm not fully satisfied with it. If anyone has a solid stats background and is able to crack it, I'd love to know about it. This is the gist of the problem: There are 10 categories of cards, and the 36 cards of each card pool are chosen randomly, with a specific number of picks per category. The added complexity is due to cards being available in different categories. So for example, if a card is drafted from Group 1 this may reduce the size of the remaining groups. This seems to create n! complexity based on the amount of groups.
Whats wrong with literally just doing "number of times card ends up in a deck" divided by "number of times the card is offered" (i.e. ignoring the groups)? Thats the intuitive meaning of "pick rate" and its what most people are going to assume is being shown on your graph This doesnt account for whether a card was first or eighth pick but I'm not sure how useful that information really is. Its not obvious to me how including the group level information is useful either, could you explain? (I'm assuming you want to avoid directly \[eg\] comparing Fireball to Golem or whatever, but is that sensbile?)
The issue is that we don't know how often a card is offered, that's what we want to find out. What we know is: - the number of groups - the number of picks per group - the cards available in each group
Im confused, if you dont know how many times the card has been offered then how can you have a pick rate? Unless I'm misunderstanding, the information you have isnt sufficient to estimate a pick rate?
that’s kind of the point, you can estimate by calculating the probability that a card has to show up in the first place (e.g. the card is in ‘n’ groups of size 10, so the probability is the sum from 1 to n of 1/(11-n)) but that means it doesn’t come from real data and so the relevant pick rate might be skewed
Well, that's what I was referring to initially. We have a good approximation, but not the definitive result that we'd like to have.
Damn
The only way mega draft can be fair is both parties have can choose from the same pool
Minion horde 🤝 goblin hut
They (excpecially minion horde) are really good as last picks when yoy know your opponent doesn't have a counter
If i see it in the list, i insta-pick a splash just in case
I always try to pick poison or fireball anyway, or otherwise snowball if there isn't log or tornado
Lightning's ended up suprisingly useful as well (Just found it, its in the middle of the clusterfuck that includes archers, 48% WR and high pick rate)
Goblin Hut is criminally underated.
So zappies are goated? Thx for confirming what I already knew.
They've been sneakily a really good card, always at least A tier for a long while
Me and all other fireball bait players agree.
Of course a fucking spawner has the highest win rate lmao God i hate this meta
Damn. So I’ve been drafting bad this whole times.
Dude why XBOW is that hated!!!!
I'd guess because it needs a good supporting cast to be successful and you have to compete with your opponent for those as well as the fact that your opponent can plan to defend against it.
Also it's not a simple mechanic to use especially for mid-ladder
FYI for this chart we used data from Ultimate Champion only — so players at this level do know how to play the cards. The reason that it’s low is mostly because of synergy.
Xbow is not strong by itself and hasn't been for a long time, hell it's absolute peak in power was back at release when buildings had unlimited lifetime. It's a wincon that needs very specific supporting cards to be enabled, something that is very rare to achieve in draft mode, but because in all other modes it's playstyle is very niche and hated I don't see it ever getting a buff to be viable in draft (if it is kept). The only people keeping the cards winrate up are the one tricks
It's garbage. Has been for years now
it's not garbage in general just in mega draft cause you can't exactly choose your deck and you could end up with something that doesn't work or your opponent can counter you
Agree but Barbes Rage more GARBAGE
You cant really jumble a good support for xbow on the fly, it needs veeery specific picks so your opponent can ruin your day the moment you take it
Show this to Brad, he'll be pleased
have you ran a regression with the data? would be interested in the R squared and p values for this
I'm not sure it would be appropriate to apply it to these results. There is a correlation between pickrate and winrate; and it's that players pick more powerful cards more often. So you'll see a positive trend indicating that players aren't picking randomly, but that's about all the relevance I can think of. I don't think there's a deeper correlation to uncover here.
so minion horde is the 2nd best card
I myself am an elixir golem enjoyer
But Xbow is fine right?
It just needs a deck built around it, so it will never be good in any draft, but it doesn't make it a bad card
Its just a really weak card. Even cards like Minion horde and Goblin hut can do well because your opponent may not have proper counters, but Xbow is countered by practically everything. The only reason it works in the one viable deck is because you can outcycle the counters or just turtle and fireball cycle. A card isn’t this far off the graph for no reason. Its by far the worst card in this mode.
You could also say that ppl who see x bow also don't pick it because they haven't used it as much, and all the other reasons you said. And I think that x bow is just really trash in general since rocket nerf.
what the hell is minion horde doing over there?
I hate what they’ve done to ranked mode
Not me picking minion horde every game to drop it's win rate
Suprised wizards that low when I see it basically every game
It's a terrible card. It's only not as unpopular as XBow because it's sort of versatile
Ultimate champion only
Clone is not in draft
So basically if you don’t get fireball or poison…you’re screwed
Goblin hut wth
I don’t even know why the top players use goblin barrel, it’s a trash tier card
It's good in Mega Draft because of the limited counters
Not really, only takes one spell to counter it
Right, but you can build your deck with tons of swarm and steal the better spells so it's more effective than in 1v1 due to the limited options It won't work every game if they take fireball first or there's a big small spell selection but situationally it's a really good card
Synergies matter a lot, a dart goblin in the same deck and now they have to choose what to counter if they only have 1 spell
This chart is suspect…. Goblin hut does not have a 55% winrate
Xbox at the bottom💀
Lol xbow
Could you have a more confusing chart?
Nerf goblin hut
How about some simple stats from mega draft too. Like win% for first (and last) pick?
Minion horde getting scooped up at the last pick when you realize your opponent has no anti air
Mega draft is such trash nobody cares about the stats. Everyone is literally counting down the days for this worthless season to be over.
BUFF XBOW! All i wanted to say.
Goblin hut is way too good
How the heck is ice golem so low