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Even if the Russian government does a lot of outright lying, they do a lot more of those 'not-technically lies'. Things like "a drone crashed in the refinery area and caused a fire" (while that's what it was intended to do, being a kamikazi drone targeting the refinery)
It's a favorite game the Ukrainian Intelligence Agency (GUR) likes to play: destroy some Russian assets, wait for Russia to lie about it, release the footage.
You would think that the Russian MOD should've learned by now that the videos from these drone ships would be released, but no. They keep on lying about the lost ships and boats. The only explanation to this is that their target audience is Russians who are only getting their news from the Russian state media.
but at some point you gotta wonder where all those young men are, no? I mean, there are girlfriends, wifes, mothers left behind probably wondering when Ivan will return. Or not? Like literally idk man
Oh boy another successful interception by russians right there. it is said that in every successful intercept, russian boats would dive to avoid further detection.
I can hear them now over the 1MC.. "Dive, Dive!" That takes a helluva lot of determination and guts to dive a patrol boat like that. And determination. Can you imagine the captain's exasperation when he orders the ballast tanks be blown and people just stare at him stupidly, jaws agape? It's a tough spot. NGL.
The Ukrainian's are claiming that it was a Mangust class patrol boat, but it looks more like a KS-850 assault boat. Either way, it's a pricy boat that comes out to a couple million, and given how a Magura V5 drone packs a 440 pound warhead, unless the drone itself didn't detonate that boat is toast.
If you look at the last 15 seconds you can see cargo netting possibly camouflaged with possible munitions on board, shame no video of it going boom yet bet it was spectacular and woke every Russian for miles around
> HUR specified that the Russian high-speed patrol boat of project 12150 "Mongoose" was destroyed.
> "Mongooses" have been produced since 2000. The boat is up to 20 meters long and up to 5 meters wide. The maximum speed is up to 50 knots.
> The modified versions of the speedboats are equipped with combat remote-controlled modules with the main standard weapon - a 14.5 mm machine gun.
> There are two AGS-17 automatic grenade launchers, a DP-64 manual anti-sabotage grenade launcher and two "Igla" or "Verba" MANPADS on board the "Mongoose".
> The estimated value of the destroyed boat, according to the HUR, is ~ $3 million.
Because you're not driving on the visual information on the screen alone, your internal "view" of the water around you already includes the parts you can't see (or at least a general "the boat is this way and the waterline should be here).
You're not trying to interpret the video feed, it's just part of what you're navigating, so it's not disorienting. It's like looking around your room, you already kind of know what is where and are just waiting for the actual visual signal to arrive when you turn your head.
The US Navy has drones that can skim the floor of the ocean, then sit in low power mode for lengthy periods.
I get the feeling that a Navy will be a thing of the past if this conflict escalates to include the rest of the world.
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Airforce wants to retire A-10 warthogs but I can see them being very effective against sea drone threats. Long loitering times, low speed, lots of munitions
No he's probably right, this is the equivalent of firing a Tomahawk missile at a T-72 tank.
They likely had intel there was actually a ship in the area. This was not really a cost effective attack.
What I'm saying is that I doubt the boat in picture was what they were aiming for. The original target was most likely something bigger. Let's not pretend like this is a huge victory. Ukraine needs to punch cost effective. I don't think this is cost effective. Which leads me to the conclusion that the target probably was something else.
If the class of boat in the description is accurate, then this was a 3 million dollar patrol boat getting blasted by a USV that costs a little more than a Javelin, so it is decently cost effective. Nothing remotely like that "Tomahawk on a T-72" that Boomfan was describing.
More than likely, the drone, or multiple drones breached into this harbor and went after what targets they could find.
Understand that not every mission needs to end with a spectacular kaboom to be effective. The mere fact that they managed to penetrate Russian defences once again will divert their resources and distract them. In fact death by a thousand cuts is still death and Ukraine has hundreds of Sea Babies to inflict those cuts. We're all eagerly awaiting the destruction of the Kerch bridge but this will do for the time being.
Sure, and if this turns out to be a Raptor or something other of high value, it was definitely worth it. If this turns out to be something less, then it might not be considered a victory at all. That's war. These drones are expensive to make and like every weapon system Ukraine has, they need to use them in cost effective ways. So let's be realistic Ukraine supporters instead of succumbing to hyperbolic statements before we know all the facts.
"GUR publishes footage of damage to a Russian boat" isn't hyperbolic. No one is claiming they sank a high value target. The symbolic value is important too just like Doolittle's raid on Tokyo. As in "we can still reach you when we want to".
FPV drones in Ukraine have success rate of 10-20% (on a good day is higher, but rare). Online you online see successful hits.
So out of 1+ million FPV drones "only" 100-200K drones makes direct damage.
So question for you - why do you think drone boats are different?
Out of 100 sea drones, only 10 will hit good targets, but this targets will be ENOUGH to cover losses of all other 90 sea drones that did not do nothing.
You can also argue that 90 sea drones that did not do nothing - also wasted resources on Russian side to shoot them down / destroy them / used people and time as resources
So even this 90 sea drones that did not do shit - did a lot of "work" on Russian side to destroy them (Sure some sea drones maybe got broken or whatever, so it's not always 90% of them).
You get the point. (I hope).
Would you consider a 30k fpv drone strike that succeeds in taking out a Russian 5k anti tank mine a cost effective way of using fpv drones? No. That would fit in the 90% percent miss category.
My point is that if this turns out to be a cheap lightly armed dingy of some sort (which it really looks like), then it's probably not cost effective. This leads me to the conclusion that they most likely were targeting something else, but circumstances led them to target a secondary objective.
Of course if you look at the sea drones operations from an overall perspective, this mission as well as other "failed" missions is part of the cost for success. Some have to fail for others to succeed. But that doesn't mean that this dronestrike in particular must be considered a success, just like the fpv drone that takes out an anti tank mine isn't.
> My point is that if this turns out to be a cheap lightly armed dingy of some sort (which it really looks like), then it's probably not cost effective. This leads me to the conclusion that they most likely were targeting something else, but circumstances led them to target a secondary objective.
Alternative is NOT to hit anything - so hitting "lightly armed dingy" + reminder to Russians that sea drones are still here is success.
You cant just use one point in chart and use that as example for everything.
Only way to see if something is GOOD or NOT - ROI is big picture.
Sea drones are fucking fantastic ROI - considering sea have open up and Ukraine is able to move grain to world markets.
> Sea drones are fucking fantastic ROI - considering sea have open up and Ukraine is able to move grain to world markets.
And not only grain but other cargo too, including container cargo shipping.
In January 2024, Ukraine reached the pre-war volume of exports by sea, and by this time it had already exceeded the pre-war level. And all this was achieved while the ports of Mariupol, Berdyansk and Skadovsk being occupied, and the ports of Mykolaiv and Kherson being inactive.
People like you I dont understand.
Let's say 90% of sea drones dont hit anything, like ZERO -but the ones that hit makes all the difference - do you get that?
1 x destroyed ship on Russian side (Big one) is enough to make cover 1000 sea drones (Cost wise).
Also RESULTS and big pictures is EVERYTHING - are Russian ships moving around in black sea as business as usual?
Fuck no. They try that - they end up losing ships.
Each drone that attacks is daily reminder what is waiting them if they try.
Exactly.
In the first half of April [russian troops sink old barges in Sevastopol Bay](https://en.socportal.info/en/news/occupiers-use-flooded-barges-to-defend-sevastopol-bay-satellite-photos/) to protect the remnants of their Black Sea Fleet vessels.
Ukraine doesn't send out drones on suicide mission to remind Russians what's in store for them. They are too expensive and need to be managed in cost effective ways. Sometimes a mission succeeds and sometimes it fails. If this turns out to be a 100k lightly armed boat of some kind (doesn't look like a Raptor), then I think it's too hyperbolic to consider this as a successful mission. It's simply not cost effective, something Ukraine knows just too well. That's why I assume the original target was something else. Hopefully this boat contained something of greater importance, but it really looks like a cheap jolly of some sort. And don't tell me Ukrainian planners were aiming for a cheap jolly. Even though it's cool to see anything russian sink, we're allowed to be realistic and conduct some critical thinking.
> That's why I assume the original target was something else.
For sure - but we dont know that. There is so many layers of the story - that we idiots here no chance to understand it.
"And don't tell me Ukrainian planners were aiming for a cheap jolly."
Maybe they did - maybe they did not - you dont know - I dont know.
Maybe this was just target of only opportunity! But commenting here based on just one video how good / bad / whatever is it - it fucking useless without understanding big picture.
Of course, I was only ever speculating. That's why I used the word probably to begin with. But if everyone who didn't have the full picture didn't provide their amateur analysis then there wouldn't be a need for reddit
Exactly, this boat is literally just a tiny boat. That\`s like a a 500k drone boat to destroy a 50k tiny boat you can buy everywhere. The military importance of that little boat is very questionable. Most likely they got intel about a ship being there, but the ship moved before the drone arrived and then they just targeted whatever. That is at least my guess.
Still more than a used small boat. Its easier for the Russians to get a new boat like that, then for Ukraine to get a new Magura v5. People here can dislike as much as they want but that\`s simply a fact.
Depends. It's not big target - fact, but if this boat can be used for logistic, or guarding duty.
Bassicaly it's same discussion - is it worth to use expensive AA missile on Orlan UAV ?
Also, cost of this boat in unknown, tho - since we can't determine type yet.
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Wait, according to the Russian MoD and Russian Telegram all those drones were destroyed. How is that possible?
Well technically they didn't lie. Or did they specifically state how the drones were destroyed?
Drones were destroy by Russia equipment \s
Even if the Russian government does a lot of outright lying, they do a lot more of those 'not-technically lies'. Things like "a drone crashed in the refinery area and caused a fire" (while that's what it was intended to do, being a kamikazi drone targeting the refinery)
Lmao
[удалено]
How do you know the Russian MoD is lying? If they open their mouth...
Russian MoD have that in common with politicians don't they...
It's a favorite game the Ukrainian Intelligence Agency (GUR) likes to play: destroy some Russian assets, wait for Russia to lie about it, release the footage. You would think that the Russian MOD should've learned by now that the videos from these drone ships would be released, but no. They keep on lying about the lost ships and boats. The only explanation to this is that their target audience is Russians who are only getting their news from the Russian state media.
Unfortunately, they did learn: they learnt that their supporters simply don’t give a shit whether they lie or not
In their defense, they understand that the vast majority of Russians never see any footage of their soldiers or assets being destroyed.
but at some point you gotta wonder where all those young men are, no? I mean, there are girlfriends, wifes, mothers left behind probably wondering when Ivan will return. Or not? Like literally idk man
Russians have a word for this - “vranyo” lies told even though everyone knows they are lies.
The drones were all destroyed. The ruSSains used their hulls to ram the drones and destroyed them all. /s
They right. Boats are destroyed by a ships hull
Blocked the punch with my face
The coined phrase, "doing a patriot", when the target destroys the missile.
Well, they are right. Some, however, got destroyed really close to russian vessels.
"Our ships have destroyed the drones trough osmosis."
they are infact destroyed..
Oh boy another successful interception by russians right there. it is said that in every successful intercept, russian boats would dive to avoid further detection.
I can hear them now over the 1MC.. "Dive, Dive!" That takes a helluva lot of determination and guts to dive a patrol boat like that. And determination. Can you imagine the captain's exasperation when he orders the ballast tanks be blown and people just stare at him stupidly, jaws agape? It's a tough spot. NGL.
What the hell was thrown at it at the 00:37 mark? Looks like a steel girder?
It looks like it's debris from another drone hit nearby. It looks like they were hitting a bunch of smaller boats loaded up with cargo
russians throwing broomsticks?
Rope mines that float and destroy boats?
I know this video is fake because Russia said that all suicide drones were destroyed. Nice try, Zelensky!
Bro this is legit what you see in the comments of YouTube videos. They believe it too.
What's that long thingie that falls on left side of screen @0:37?
falling debris from something that blew up
Either a drone boar blowing up or another target blowing up.
Holy shit, Ukraine has aquatic robot boars now?!
Boarbots. Coming soon to a conflict near you.
You joke, but a boar killed King Robert Baratheon.
30-50 ~~feral~~ robotic hogs. We were warned.
I like to think its the radar antenna splashing down enthusiastically.
Maybe one of those floating rope style mines that destroys boats
They were throwing Javelins at it, Spartan style.
Maybe a torpedo from a helicopter 🤔
What type of boat is that?
Looks like Project KS-701 Coast guard patrol boat.
Looks more like KS-850 to me but not exactly. That nose shape doesnt resemble ks-701
The Ukrainian's are claiming that it was a Mangust class patrol boat, but it looks more like a KS-850 assault boat. Either way, it's a pricy boat that comes out to a couple million, and given how a Magura V5 drone packs a 440 pound warhead, unless the drone itself didn't detonate that boat is toast.
The sunken type
Not sure, but its looks like a submarine type in the current state.
It's possible to directly donate to the naval drone program https://u24.gov.ua/seababy
If you look at the last 15 seconds you can see cargo netting possibly camouflaged with possible munitions on board, shame no video of it going boom yet bet it was spectacular and woke every Russian for miles around
Took me a bit to realize it was camouflaged netting. At 1:01 I thought it was the bottom half of a pile of bodies.
The second half of the video was intense
> HUR specified that the Russian high-speed patrol boat of project 12150 "Mongoose" was destroyed. > "Mongooses" have been produced since 2000. The boat is up to 20 meters long and up to 5 meters wide. The maximum speed is up to 50 knots. > The modified versions of the speedboats are equipped with combat remote-controlled modules with the main standard weapon - a 14.5 mm machine gun. > There are two AGS-17 automatic grenade launchers, a DP-64 manual anti-sabotage grenade launcher and two "Igla" or "Verba" MANPADS on board the "Mongoose". > The estimated value of the destroyed boat, according to the HUR, is ~ $3 million.
Can't wait for the Drive edit, as is tradition with the boat drone vids
It was so depopulated the poor guy had a trouble finding a target.
How you drive these things without puking from motion sickness is beyond me
Because you're not driving on the visual information on the screen alone, your internal "view" of the water around you already includes the parts you can't see (or at least a general "the boat is this way and the waterline should be here). You're not trying to interpret the video feed, it's just part of what you're navigating, so it's not disorienting. It's like looking around your room, you already kind of know what is where and are just waiting for the actual visual signal to arrive when you turn your head.
The US Navy has drones that can skim the floor of the ocean, then sit in low power mode for lengthy periods. I get the feeling that a Navy will be a thing of the past if this conflict escalates to include the rest of the world.
Yeah, huge slow and expensive hunks of metal filled with ordnance seem like a silly thing in modern warfare.
are those debris falling to sea from first drone's explosion?
At first I thought incoming rounds but the slow speed and extreme angle sure looks like debris! Whatever they hit off camera got some air!
what's the song/version?
That was a massive success 🙌
Go little sea drone, go!
Happy ending
If anyone is curious about the song, it's called " oy u luzi chervona kalyna epic version" by Hold my Borche
Burn muthafucka burn mottafokka børn 🔥
Where do I sign up for this job?
They should use some sort of solid fuel rocket to quickly close the gap int hat final stretch when it is most susceptible to small arms.
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What’s GUR ?
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See Russia never lied... they intercepted the drones... The same way in high-school I didn't get knocked out, I blocked that guy's punch with my face.
Should have cut to Curb your enthusiasm at the end.
Airforce wants to retire A-10 warthogs but I can see them being very effective against sea drone threats. Long loitering times, low speed, lots of munitions
This is probably a mission failure, and they ended up taking down what they could. The Boat in the picture is probably worth less than the drone.
[удалено]
No he's probably right, this is the equivalent of firing a Tomahawk missile at a T-72 tank. They likely had intel there was actually a ship in the area. This was not really a cost effective attack.
So a more valuable target they didn't quite find so they just fuck it and used this drone on a less important boat?
Yes, Sevastopol is blocked off so it's not like they can just go looking for something else far away.
Did you just pull that info from the same place?
I was asking boomfan I wasn't making a statement relax bud. Ahhh I can see by your profile you're a tankie lmao
If someone punched you in the face but didn't knock you out would that be mission failure too?
What I'm saying is that I doubt the boat in picture was what they were aiming for. The original target was most likely something bigger. Let's not pretend like this is a huge victory. Ukraine needs to punch cost effective. I don't think this is cost effective. Which leads me to the conclusion that the target probably was something else.
If the class of boat in the description is accurate, then this was a 3 million dollar patrol boat getting blasted by a USV that costs a little more than a Javelin, so it is decently cost effective. Nothing remotely like that "Tomahawk on a T-72" that Boomfan was describing. More than likely, the drone, or multiple drones breached into this harbor and went after what targets they could find.
Understand that not every mission needs to end with a spectacular kaboom to be effective. The mere fact that they managed to penetrate Russian defences once again will divert their resources and distract them. In fact death by a thousand cuts is still death and Ukraine has hundreds of Sea Babies to inflict those cuts. We're all eagerly awaiting the destruction of the Kerch bridge but this will do for the time being.
Sure, and if this turns out to be a Raptor or something other of high value, it was definitely worth it. If this turns out to be something less, then it might not be considered a victory at all. That's war. These drones are expensive to make and like every weapon system Ukraine has, they need to use them in cost effective ways. So let's be realistic Ukraine supporters instead of succumbing to hyperbolic statements before we know all the facts.
"GUR publishes footage of damage to a Russian boat" isn't hyperbolic. No one is claiming they sank a high value target. The symbolic value is important too just like Doolittle's raid on Tokyo. As in "we can still reach you when we want to".
FPV drones in Ukraine have success rate of 10-20% (on a good day is higher, but rare). Online you online see successful hits. So out of 1+ million FPV drones "only" 100-200K drones makes direct damage. So question for you - why do you think drone boats are different? Out of 100 sea drones, only 10 will hit good targets, but this targets will be ENOUGH to cover losses of all other 90 sea drones that did not do nothing. You can also argue that 90 sea drones that did not do nothing - also wasted resources on Russian side to shoot them down / destroy them / used people and time as resources So even this 90 sea drones that did not do shit - did a lot of "work" on Russian side to destroy them (Sure some sea drones maybe got broken or whatever, so it's not always 90% of them). You get the point. (I hope).
Would you consider a 30k fpv drone strike that succeeds in taking out a Russian 5k anti tank mine a cost effective way of using fpv drones? No. That would fit in the 90% percent miss category. My point is that if this turns out to be a cheap lightly armed dingy of some sort (which it really looks like), then it's probably not cost effective. This leads me to the conclusion that they most likely were targeting something else, but circumstances led them to target a secondary objective. Of course if you look at the sea drones operations from an overall perspective, this mission as well as other "failed" missions is part of the cost for success. Some have to fail for others to succeed. But that doesn't mean that this dronestrike in particular must be considered a success, just like the fpv drone that takes out an anti tank mine isn't.
> My point is that if this turns out to be a cheap lightly armed dingy of some sort (which it really looks like), then it's probably not cost effective. This leads me to the conclusion that they most likely were targeting something else, but circumstances led them to target a secondary objective. Alternative is NOT to hit anything - so hitting "lightly armed dingy" + reminder to Russians that sea drones are still here is success. You cant just use one point in chart and use that as example for everything. Only way to see if something is GOOD or NOT - ROI is big picture. Sea drones are fucking fantastic ROI - considering sea have open up and Ukraine is able to move grain to world markets.
> Sea drones are fucking fantastic ROI - considering sea have open up and Ukraine is able to move grain to world markets. And not only grain but other cargo too, including container cargo shipping. In January 2024, Ukraine reached the pre-war volume of exports by sea, and by this time it had already exceeded the pre-war level. And all this was achieved while the ports of Mariupol, Berdyansk and Skadovsk being occupied, and the ports of Mykolaiv and Kherson being inactive.
[ Removed by Reddit ]
Hopefully it is, but doesn't look like a Raptor if you look closely
People like you I dont understand. Let's say 90% of sea drones dont hit anything, like ZERO -but the ones that hit makes all the difference - do you get that? 1 x destroyed ship on Russian side (Big one) is enough to make cover 1000 sea drones (Cost wise). Also RESULTS and big pictures is EVERYTHING - are Russian ships moving around in black sea as business as usual? Fuck no. They try that - they end up losing ships. Each drone that attacks is daily reminder what is waiting them if they try.
Exactly. In the first half of April [russian troops sink old barges in Sevastopol Bay](https://en.socportal.info/en/news/occupiers-use-flooded-barges-to-defend-sevastopol-bay-satellite-photos/) to protect the remnants of their Black Sea Fleet vessels.
Ukraine doesn't send out drones on suicide mission to remind Russians what's in store for them. They are too expensive and need to be managed in cost effective ways. Sometimes a mission succeeds and sometimes it fails. If this turns out to be a 100k lightly armed boat of some kind (doesn't look like a Raptor), then I think it's too hyperbolic to consider this as a successful mission. It's simply not cost effective, something Ukraine knows just too well. That's why I assume the original target was something else. Hopefully this boat contained something of greater importance, but it really looks like a cheap jolly of some sort. And don't tell me Ukrainian planners were aiming for a cheap jolly. Even though it's cool to see anything russian sink, we're allowed to be realistic and conduct some critical thinking.
> That's why I assume the original target was something else. For sure - but we dont know that. There is so many layers of the story - that we idiots here no chance to understand it. "And don't tell me Ukrainian planners were aiming for a cheap jolly." Maybe they did - maybe they did not - you dont know - I dont know. Maybe this was just target of only opportunity! But commenting here based on just one video how good / bad / whatever is it - it fucking useless without understanding big picture.
Of course, I was only ever speculating. That's why I used the word probably to begin with. But if everyone who didn't have the full picture didn't provide their amateur analysis then there wouldn't be a need for reddit
The estimated value of the destroyed boat, according to the HUR, is ~ $3 million.
Then it's good news
Exactly, this boat is literally just a tiny boat. That\`s like a a 500k drone boat to destroy a 50k tiny boat you can buy everywhere. The military importance of that little boat is very questionable. Most likely they got intel about a ship being there, but the ship moved before the drone arrived and then they just targeted whatever. That is at least my guess.
50k tiny boat? 🤣🤣 Have you ever in your life checked boat prices?
A used boat this size from Russia without any fancy interior? Yeah, 50k is even high for that.
Go, check the prices. :)
Tiny little unimportant boat - with a cam net stretched over the top of it?
MAGURA v5 cost is $274k
Still more than a used small boat. Its easier for the Russians to get a new boat like that, then for Ukraine to get a new Magura v5. People here can dislike as much as they want but that\`s simply a fact.
Depends. It's not big target - fact, but if this boat can be used for logistic, or guarding duty. Bassicaly it's same discussion - is it worth to use expensive AA missile on Orlan UAV ? Also, cost of this boat in unknown, tho - since we can't determine type yet.
I think the actual costs were 5 trillion dollars (American tax dollars) for the drone and ~$5.40 for the Russian boat
Hardly a worthy target.