We got lucky the last few times, unfortunately we didnt this time around. Once the virus gets hold in uncooperative communities there's not much you can do.
Our Lvl4 lockdown was meant to only last a few weeks at max, basically snuff out the virus at a high initial cost but what we saw is that this group (gangs / drug dealers / sex workers / homeless) didnt care about the rules so there was always a string of new infections popping up whilst we were still under the strict conditions. This group basically forced our hand to give up on elimination (our weak enforcement of the rules also takes some share of the blame)
Definitely not required as much.
Our previous lockdowns for the most part had a strong community buy-in (the whole "team of 5 million thing") where majority followed the rules and those who broke them were mainly all isolated cases.
The lockdown for this outbreak also started off fairly strong with majority of clusters actually getting eliminated however one of the clusters was centered around these uncooperative individuals (gang relations) and new 'large households' just kept on getting infected long after all the other initial clusters closed. These people would also refuse to provide information on where they've been / make contact tracing impossible. Obviously this eventually starts annoying everyone else that follows the rules and businesses start pushing for us to ease up on restrictions as there was no real end in sight given the circumstances.
Had this same group of individuals been involved in one of our earlier outbreaks / lockdowns then I fully believe our 0 covid situation would have ended much sooner
One of the core differences was in 2020 the domestic covid narrative was driven by the domestic media out from what had happening in China because American media and internet companies had unofficially ordered censorship on the matter by February of 2020. By the time of this outbreak high proportions of specific demographics had absorbed American narratives mostly from social media such denialism, dismissivism, conspiracies, anti-vax and so on over the previous year. Antivaxxers have leafleted or magazine dropped the entire country multiple times, evangelical churches are railing against vaccinations and lockdowns, former prime minister John Key along with what little parts of the media aren't left wing either intentionally or unwittingly dog whistled opposition supporters to defy lockdown rules, and many people catching it think it's another common cold or a hoax. 11% of Auckland's 12+ population have been steadfast in refusing the vaccine and it is now primarily spreading among a specific age, income and and ethnic demographic where vaccine uptake is dire and likely to remain so unless there are enforced financial penalties.
Restrictions and plans are supposed to account for that. They should have been planning for the possibility that the lockdown wouldn’t work to eliminate cases. The NZ vaccination app that provides proof of vaccination (for the reopening) won’t be ready until the end of November. That’s insane.
Bowtell mentions the word "libertarian" more than most libertarians. It reveals how transparently ideological his takes are, passed off with the illusion of health expertise.
He wants covid to reveal the insufficiency, maybe even evilness of what he deems to be libertarianism. Whether he is right or wrong doesn't affect how pathetic it is that he sees everything through his hyper-politicized worldview.
First time over 100 cases in a day for NZ.
Irrelevant metric and an arbitrary number anyway
Tell that to all the poeple freaking out about VIC opening tonight due to our case numbers despite reducing hospitalisation numbers daily
depends how many positive cases are 1,2, or 0 doses.
Congratulations on reaching triple figures NZ.
These takes have aged well https://twitter.com/billbowtell/status/1434026225954029571
We got lucky the last few times, unfortunately we didnt this time around. Once the virus gets hold in uncooperative communities there's not much you can do. Our Lvl4 lockdown was meant to only last a few weeks at max, basically snuff out the virus at a high initial cost but what we saw is that this group (gangs / drug dealers / sex workers / homeless) didnt care about the rules so there was always a string of new infections popping up whilst we were still under the strict conditions. This group basically forced our hand to give up on elimination (our weak enforcement of the rules also takes some share of the blame)
Do you feel enforcement was stricter in previous lockdowns, or just not actually required as much?
Definitely not required as much. Our previous lockdowns for the most part had a strong community buy-in (the whole "team of 5 million thing") where majority followed the rules and those who broke them were mainly all isolated cases. The lockdown for this outbreak also started off fairly strong with majority of clusters actually getting eliminated however one of the clusters was centered around these uncooperative individuals (gang relations) and new 'large households' just kept on getting infected long after all the other initial clusters closed. These people would also refuse to provide information on where they've been / make contact tracing impossible. Obviously this eventually starts annoying everyone else that follows the rules and businesses start pushing for us to ease up on restrictions as there was no real end in sight given the circumstances. Had this same group of individuals been involved in one of our earlier outbreaks / lockdowns then I fully believe our 0 covid situation would have ended much sooner
One of the core differences was in 2020 the domestic covid narrative was driven by the domestic media out from what had happening in China because American media and internet companies had unofficially ordered censorship on the matter by February of 2020. By the time of this outbreak high proportions of specific demographics had absorbed American narratives mostly from social media such denialism, dismissivism, conspiracies, anti-vax and so on over the previous year. Antivaxxers have leafleted or magazine dropped the entire country multiple times, evangelical churches are railing against vaccinations and lockdowns, former prime minister John Key along with what little parts of the media aren't left wing either intentionally or unwittingly dog whistled opposition supporters to defy lockdown rules, and many people catching it think it's another common cold or a hoax. 11% of Auckland's 12+ population have been steadfast in refusing the vaccine and it is now primarily spreading among a specific age, income and and ethnic demographic where vaccine uptake is dire and likely to remain so unless there are enforced financial penalties.
>We got lucky the last few times, Ardern should not have counted on luck. She's not a serious leader.
If your plan relies on 100% compliance, it isn't a viable plan to begin with.
Restrictions and plans are supposed to account for that. They should have been planning for the possibility that the lockdown wouldn’t work to eliminate cases. The NZ vaccination app that provides proof of vaccination (for the reopening) won’t be ready until the end of November. That’s insane.
success bred hubris. same thing has happened throughout australia.
The hubris was already there.
Bowtell mentions the word "libertarian" more than most libertarians. It reveals how transparently ideological his takes are, passed off with the illusion of health expertise. He wants covid to reveal the insufficiency, maybe even evilness of what he deems to be libertarianism. Whether he is right or wrong doesn't affect how pathetic it is that he sees everything through his hyper-politicized worldview.
ZOINKS
noooo! don't give up hope guys, you can still eliminate this thing!! (/s for those who struggle)
The pandemic is out of control in NZ. DO not reopen.