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Idiodyssey87

So it will have to gross around $1 billion at the box office to break even. They're fucked.


BlitzAce243

$1 billion is crazier to break even than the $350 million budget that should have been the final nail to the coffin šŸ’€


Clilly1

Shouldn't be hard. There our thousands of trillionaires out there who need entertainment!


baran132

Wouldn't it be $700 million as marketing is usually the same amount as production budget?


Idiodyssey87

The theaters also get a cut of the ticket sales.


Initial_Selection262

As a general rule movies need to make about 2.5x their budget to break even. The advertising budget is often even larger than the actual production Budget


Tough-Priority-4330

You have to double the budget/production as the company only gets about 50% of ticket revenue. So a $700 million dollar film would need 1.4 billion in ticket sales to break even.


ViralGameover

The $350 mil comes from a very unreliable source. Maybe it gets up there eventually with reshoots, but no one in their right mind would spend that kinda money to make this film. Of the 3 Marvel movies next year; this one feels doomed. Thunderbolts has potential to surprise and Fantastic Fourā€™s creative team/direction/cast has all but secured a hit. Hopefully they can work together and stick the landing.


bukanir

Reshoots are typically calculated in the production budget ahead of time. At best this number is an estimation of production + marketing budget, though I'm skeptical. I'm betting the actual production is around $200 M. I could see an additional $150 M in marketing but they typically aim for 50% production budget. $300M all in makes more sense and would require a $550M break even (Disney gets a 60% box office share domestically, estimating down to 55% to account for international as well).


ViralGameover

Thatā€™s sounds much more plausible. It was widely reported the budget was below that of The Marvels and $200 million would be in line with that.


Maxter_Blaster_

This movie is so fucked. I like the idea of hulk and red hulk being prominent, but Mackie simply cannot carry this franchise.


Ok_Sea_6214

Mackie... Is he the one that flies?


0000110011

No one wants Captain Falcon. He's very monotone when talking and just an uninteresting character played by a very meh actor. Bucky being the new Cap would have been a much better choice.


Maxter_Blaster_

Yes! I forgot to mention. They fumbled the bag by not making Bucky Cap, but we all know why Mackie was chosen.


0000110011

I just don't get why Mackie was cast to begin with. There are plenty of significantly more talented black actors they could have gone with for Falcon.


Maxter_Blaster_

Disney creams their pants thinking of how diverse their movie posters can be


SuikTwoPointOh

The small print: ā€œMay not apply in China.ā€


DancesWithChimps

I think Mackie works as a sidekick very well. Ā Heā€™s competent, but doesnā€™t overshadow anyone. Ā Heā€™s there for the occasional zinger. Ā Why they thought he could lead is beyond me.Ā 


Jumba2009sa

Disagree both Bucky and Falcon are one note meh actors. Bucky ruined civil war for me.


0000110011

Bruh, what? You're the first person I've ever heard hate on Bucky. Not saying you're not allowed to your opinion. Sebastian might not be a great actor, but he's way better than Anthony as we saw with the Falcon and the Winter Soldier series.Ā 


Typhoon556

I actually like him as an actor in a few things I have seen.


Ewokavenger

He was awesome in the Eternals


TheBelmont34

What?


TheBelmont34

How about no one becomes the new cap


Crawford470

>Bucky being the new Cap would have been a much better choice. Wouldn't have made a lick of fucking sense. >He's very monotone when talking and just an uninteresting character played by a very meh actor. Sam Wilson's character is if there was an alternate universe version of Steve, where he's a peak human and didn't need the serum to be a hero but still has the moral compass and compassion. There is very little meaningful difference beyond that and their race, and I can't really think of a legit reason one would dislike Sam but like Steve barring the fact he's just had less time in the spotlight. Also, Mackey's not even mildly a meh actor. Twisted Metal alone shows what he can do when given good material to work with and inhabit.


calmly86

Really? I disagree. Mackie is a good actor with decent range. He did fantastic in that video game ā€˜Black Mirrorā€™ episode. Heā€™s charismatic and while thereā€™s legitimate criticism of a lot of race and gender swapped versions of classic characters, Steve Rogers and Sam Wilsonā€™s friendship and teamwork has been around forā€¦ five decades now? The character has earned the promotion. Itā€™s not out of left field. Now, could they have done him a little better in the MCU? Yes. A few more missions shown, heroic actions taken by Mackieā€™s Falcon that would have better hi-lighted why Rogers had such faith in him to turn over the shield at the end of ā€˜Endgame,ā€™ would have been choice, but I like what they did for the most part in ā€˜Falcon and the Winter Soldier.ā€™ Now, to the topic of this postā€¦ $350 million dollars? Thatā€™s nuts. They really need to polish their scripts better prior to greenlighting them.


Big-ol-Poo

Striking Vipers! I fucked the polar bear.


Typhoon556

I disagree with your disagreement. He was flat and stilted when he replaced Kinnaman in Altered Carbon, and this is a much bigger and more expensive project. Itā€™s going to fall flat, IMO.


FalseTittle

I think he could if interest in Marvel hadn't gone massively down hill before hand and if he was in a Falcon movie


Maxter_Blaster_

I loved him in CA:WS. Heā€™s the perfect side man character. The problem is Evans cap is pretty iconic and beloved. Anthony doesnā€™t have that same luxury.


Typhoon556

I agree. He is a good side character and supporting actor, he cannot carry a series or movie.


fallen_messiah

I think Mackie could on theory carry a franchise but Falcon can't. Love Mackie but Falcon is not interesting enough to be more than a side character.


Typhoon556

He couldnā€™t even carry Altered Carbon when Joel Kinnaman left the series. The season with Mackie was horrible in comparison.


Monkeydrye

Stuff like this is why I'm convinced that Disney is either trying to tank their stock or they're laundering money


BeeDub57

They drank the kool-aid, and the effects are kicking in.


-RudeCanadian-

Why not both?


Initial_Selection262

Itā€™s Hollywood accounting. Disney takes out massive insurance policies that pay out in the event the movie tanks. A movie going in the red allows Disney to write it off for tax purposes as well as stiff everyone who worked for profit % including theaters. They end up actually making money even off 100 million ā€œlossā€ And it the even the movie makes money, well thatā€™s fine too. Itā€™s a winner either way. All that matters is it gets made. Thatā€™s why we are seeing so many huge budget productions that turn out to be slop.


Monkeydrye

I buy that for here and there. But insurance tends to not like it. If you're constantly having to make claims. At some point insurance would drop them. With the exception of inside out. I don't think they've had something profitable in quite some time. Imagine what your car insurance prices would be like if you wrecked your car several times a year


abe5765

The smart ones are milking the company dry with nonsense the dumb executives think itā€™s fine because the smart ones have people convincing the executives that this the one that will work despite it being the 10th time they said it would work


PoKen2222

I think they should double down and double the budget. I'm sure it will do great.


abe5765

Why do think the budget is 350 itā€™s because it was 175 then they announced reshoots


Mello-Fello

It's OK, I'm sure it'll be a huge hit and will earn back every penny ![gif](giphy|XOywjQnU8R89q|downsized)


LameDonkey1

This fake captain America has no value to me. They keep building characters nobody cares about.


Gullible-Historian10

As one of the ā€œracist, sexist, and jingoistā€ marvel fans I really like the spider-verse movies. Why canā€™t they just give great stories.


griever0008

They need to do better!


LameDonkey1

They need to go back to telling good stories about any characters they introduce.


Gullible-Historian10

Right. What made spider-verse so good was the story and the characters. The second one blew me away and I canā€™t wait for the new one to finish it off.


BeeDub57

They need to step up!


Ok_Sea_6214

Captain Equality.


Chemical-Singer-4655

Captain Equity.


Ok_Sea_6214

Captain They/Them.


baran132

Captain Attack Helicopter šŸ˜‚šŸ˜‚šŸ˜‚šŸ˜‚


fruitpunchsamuraiD

I feel bad for Mackie.


0000110011

I don't. The guy can't act his way out of a paper bag and he's getting millions to be monotone as fuck in a leading role.


f-ckusingmyrealemail

Falcon is actually pretty cool. I was looking forward to this movie but hearing the development hell it's been in doesn't inspire confidence


Aresson480

This will be a fail.


Pristine_Hour_816

He looks like A Train


0000110011

Except the guy who plays A-Train is a much better actor.


Chemical-Singer-4655

I think he looks more like A Plane. Y'know, with the wings and all.


Bounce_Bounce40

Can't wait to see their Pikachu face when it fails and then blames fans


Page8988

"The fans are super racist and not nice. We told them we didn't make it for them, but they didn't watch it because it wasn't for them, so it's their fault for not watching it. They're racists! Did we mention that the fans are racist? Wait, no, they're sexists! Uhh... yeah! Sexists *and* racists! Did we miss any?"


rekage99

ā€œMen didnā€™t come to see it because their homophobic. But they also wonā€™t watch a female lead because they hate women. Stupid men hating everyoneā€ - some producer probably


Ok_Sea_6214

90% is spent on making sure it's DEI.


Winterclaw42

We could have had 20-30 Godzilla Minus Ones for that much. Add in marketing and I don't see how this movie breaks even. I mean at some point shouldn't disney learn that they can't throw money at a project anymore? If this were a spider man movie, they might be able to make decent money after spending $350m but I don't think they have many other options for that kind of payday.


Simple-Metal7801

This movie will flop with that budget


BeeDub57

It can't do anything else.


Full-Ability-319

Does his suit give him super human capabilities? I remember him fighting enhanced humans in his show and somehow winning. I thought he just had a wing suit. I'll watch it when it comes to +


VulgarXrated

Honestly it makes no sense for him to be Captain America. Bucky should have got the shield, he's ACTUALLY a super soldier and he needs to get away from that Winter Soldier moniker big time


OutrageousFinger4279

He was supposed to get super powers from a blood transfusion from Captain America. Maybe they'll have Bucky give him one, I don't know.


DaikonMediocre6768

His suit does do that kinda, he tends to use his brains and momentum to take down stronger opponents, and his new wings are vibranium, he uses them like a gigantic shield at one point. Aside from the suit tho, the finale of falcon and the winter soldier was pretty lackluster.


Icefiight

Dead. On. Arrival.


ironafro2

I never liked Mackie as Cap. Itā€™s not cuz he black. Iā€™m black. Sorry Disney, you dont get to virtue signal me. Itā€™s cuz he doesnā€™t have the serum and is a standard issue human with cool gear. Is that simplistic? Maybe. But Ironman without his suit is just a philanthropic billionaire. Hulk without his gamma rays is just Dr. Banner. It matters to the story and without it, I have to start suspending so much more disbelief as a nonsuper does super stuff. Just basic fallacies man. I canā€™t do it. I havenā€™t watched anything coming out of Disney other than Andor in years and Iā€™m happier for it


Crawford470

>Itā€™s cuz he doesnā€™t have the serum and is a standard issue human with cool gear. Is that simplistic? I mean, tbf comics Steve Rogers is only supposed to be peak human with the serum. He's not actually (sometimes), well peak human in the same way Batman can be peak human depending on the run where him fighting 10 tonners like Slade is somehow even, but still. I don't have a problem with peak human Sam being Cap as a result.


FatChango

Well said.


0000110011

This. The first time he goes toe to toe with a super powered villain, he'd be splattered all over the pavement. Bucky was the logical choice for a new Cap.


Crawford470

>Bucky was the logical choice for a new Cap. If you completely ignore everything else sure...


Lord-Barkingstone

I'm starting to believe that these shows are money laundering schemes.


stangAce20

Dude couldnā€™t even carry his own TV series without Sebastian Stan


jrd5497

Sebastian Stan shouldā€™ve taken up the shield. Itā€™s more important to Bucky than Falcon from a character development standpoint.


Brilliant_Eagle9795

Why not just send every fan a figurine instead of this dumpster fire.


Page8988

So it'll need to earn, what, $700 million? That's not happening in this climate. It's already doomed to fail.


VulgarXrated

Not even close. After probably 300mil in marketing and the theaters taking half of the revenue, they will need to make upwards of 1.32 billion just to break even. No way in hell will this movie make that much money. Plus after all those reshoots there's no telling what the real budget ballooned too


GradeOwn5843

Captain America movie without Captain America, I like the actor but I don't see the movie doing well. The tv show wasn't spectacular either They could've given Bucky the shield and title of Cap seen as he does have strength and pretty similar to Steve Rogers


rekage99

They really shouldnā€™t have made him the new captain america. They shouldā€™ve had him and bucky defend and insist the title be retired and leave the legacy alone. Falcon is his own character, by constantly putting him under the captain moniker, youā€™re doing Falcon a disservice. Also, these studios need to learn how to budget. These movies are so expensive to make and I have no idea why. If this doesnā€™t hit 500mil itā€™s going to be considered a flop. Thatā€™s an outrageous benchmark to hit.


ShakeEnvironmental47

He aint cap. Hes is falcon.


VulgarXrated

Captain Falcon


BlackCherrySeltzer4U

Why?


KaerrenKinsleigher

"We just finished filming the reshoots of the reshoots, so we know it's going to be one of the greatest movies of all time."


SolidGray_

Movie is DoA


gonowbegonewithyou

Disneyā€™s going to have another ā€˜The Marvelsā€™- sized flop on their hands. Nobodyā€™s interested in seeing this. Iā€™m not going. I donā€™t know anyone who plans to go either.


Thicc_Nasty-taxfraud

You gotta do better senator.


AZULDEFILER

We will never forget


LordChimera_0

If it is exposed that some money laundering and embezzlement as well grifting-scams does happened behind the scenes... I wouldn't be surprised at all.


-DI0-

How much $ do you guys think theyā€™re going to lose this time?


MagazineNo2198

Good job, guys! You just ensured the movie will lose money! Repeat after me: NOT EVERY MOVIE HAS TO BE A "BLOCKBUSTER"! Also, if all movies are blockbusters, none of them are!


TunaFlapSlap

At least 350 people will see it


gogul1980

Not going to see it as I really donā€™t like where MCU is with the multiverse and skrulls crap. Lazy writing with the idea they can retcon anything they like at any time.


Mysteriouskyle

They should cap it off around 100m-150m or less.


wussell_88

Crazy is they keep doing this they are eroding all the profits from when marvel was successful lol


baran132

Watch it still look like crap.


Tough-Area-570

Oh gawd another gigantic failure


Supremecurmudgeon

Is Hollywood funnelling money through films, writing shit off and using those funds to build a space ship to save them after the rich burn the planet?! 350. Thatā€™s a lot of money for a film about a character I have zero interest in.


Fap_Left_Surf_Right

I worked in finance and investment banking for almost 15 years. If a bank took a 200m loss on a regulatory issue or bad trade, itā€™d cause a major transformation within the company. These entertainment companies are no where near bank asset levels, so itā€™s incredible theyā€™re taking hundreds of millions in losses regularly and nothing changes. I also believe itā€™s thereā€™s something else going on. These films are highly volatile, have major losses regularly, but somehow theyā€™re able to raise shitloads of money to burn publicly. Over and over again.


Key-Ebb-8306

This is just tax fraud


SalvatoreVito

Iā€™m guessing theyā€™re gonna pander extra hard here. Same old shit.


Sword-of-Chaos

Anthony Mackie seems like a super nice guy, but he is so bland. A recast with John David Washington would do wonders.


deltabravo1280

Itā€™s going to lose $150-200M.


VulgarXrated

It's gonna lose waaaay more than that. Probably 800 mil


Twitter_Refugee_2022

Heavens Gate 2025


LastGuitarHero

It shouldā€™ve been Bucky


mottokung

How did Marvel come to this? I hope the film don't turn out bad. I personally like Anthony Mackie.


Scott_Tajani

so 2x for marketing and then 2x for breaking even? so $1.4B to break even šŸ’€


Supremecurmudgeon

Why?


dible79

Just thinking what us his super powers? He had that cool flight pack before the cap gave him the shield. But cap was genetically to be made super powerful. Has this dude glad something done to him to make him as powerful as captain America? Or us he just a guy that works out with some cool gadgets? Because that's not captain America realy is it. A mean a normal dude isn't going to be able to do what a super human dude can? Right? This stinks l9l


XComThrowawayAcct

Better than $400 million, I guess.


Hamburglar219

Captain falcon going to flop so hard


1400Diggg

This is false


crankycrassus

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Khrimzon

Winter Soldier should have taken up the Cptn America mantle imo.


Manapouri33

Idk why he has to be captain america I know Iā€™m the comics itā€™s a mantle too, but I sincerely think it shouldnā€™t be. Steve Rogers is the only captain America, Isaiah Bradley in the comics is up there too mind you.one captain America is all u need


dolceespress

Disney loves losing money. Mackie is cool, but doubt this movie makes the money theyā€™re hoping.


Skullchaser666

350 million worth of suckage!


CheekandBreek

I have a feeling Anthony Mackie is going to get dragged on this one, with something like 4 reshoots that we know about, that's not a great sign. I know it's relatively common for reshoots these days, but 4 seems a bit high and would imply there are something wrong with the story's delivery, if they need to go back to clarify or change things. I think it also would have been fine to let Captain America rest for a while. They didn't need to drop Mackie into the open slot that was left by Chris Evans. There are so many Marvel characters that they could have continued on with and then come back the Cap later on. I dunno, I hope we're all wrong about it and the move ends up being good, but my gut feeling is that it is not going to be great and with a budget like 350 million, Disney's not giving themselves any wiggle room if the movie doesn't do well. These budgets in general have to be unsustainable. We're in funny money territory now and even with Disney money, you have to really wonder how long they can keep it up, with a streaming platform that supposedly hasn't turned a profit and far less people going to theaters these days, it just seems like they're setting a decent actor up to take a hit to their career because Disney/Marvel/Lucas can't slow their fuckin' roll a bit and promote quality over quantity.


pRophecysama

Oh no


RxDawg77

They really are money laundering aren't they?


Usual-Cabinet-3815

Shame they are gonna lose all that money. Sadly when they do theyā€™ll blame it on racism. No ones going to the movies anymore. And Marvel has run its course.


Ewokavenger

Just like 5-10 years ago, wasnā€™t breaking 1 bill like a special club that only certain movies could hit? Why is it now the standard to hit just to break even now?


Zaphod_Beeblecox

No lessons are ever learned by Disney.


DaikonMediocre6768

I think they could succeed if they just change that God awful suit and fix the dumbass dialogue. Falconā€™s action scenes have always been awesome until ep2 of falcon and the winter soldier. Then they cut huge corners, which everyone eventually hated. Letā€™s be honest tho, the opening scene of that show actually started off strong


skidmarx77

Holy crap, that's absolutely insane. A Captain America movie without Steve Rogers or Bucky that has basically been completely reshot - and this isn't a Tony Gilroy coming in at the 11th hour to clean up the end of Rogue One a little - from the sound of things, a ton of that film has been reshot, which apparently includes scrapping at least one big action scene, and adding THREE others! That is mind-boggling. And they added new characters, I'm sure to some scenes that already existed, so if they want things to look better than "Hey, those characters were obviously nowhere near each other when they shot this scene, and it looks like shit" then there's even more reshoots. What a mess. Red Hulk ain't worth it, Marvel, there is no buzz with this film, no one cares. Deadpool will give Marvel the much needed booster shot, but that isn't going to carry over to a project that no one cares about already. Oh, and isn't being released in February of next year now? Where movies go to die? Nothing says Valentine's Day like Falcon-Cap.


BogDEkoms

I'm sure y'all will buy tickets to see it just to call it woke after