it was the similar sentiment in 2020 as we approached $20k.
we were passing an old ATH, and few people that weren't already into crypto seemed to care.
it wasn't until we got a bit over the hump into the high 20s that the mania started taking off.
trust me; when we hit $80k bitcoin (probably soon enough here tbh), the narrative of *"Bitcoin to $100k"* and *"last chance to buy at 5 digits"* will be **everywhere**, and it's gonna be a wild ride.
Then eventually media panic at the slightest dip will cause the noobs to crypto to all start panic selling as all their life savings are in there causing the market to crash again. And then the cycle continues.
The cycle cannot fully continue until Bitcoin is declared dead again. I don't know if that's the beginning of the cycle or the end, but Bitcoin must die to thrive. ^/s
The 4 years cycle is mostly based in a self fulfilling prophecy. It doesn’t make any financial sense to have “predicted patterns” because it’s free money. But if enough people believe in it, they will create the pattern.
But logically, it will start anticipating itself, the bull and the burst.
I sold most of my portfolio in 2021. I bought back during the bear market. I’m unsure if we are far away from the peak. But I’m sad too many people will believe they know looking at former cycles. And too many people don’t know how to invest with reasonable risk
We will see
In a normal world, people would anticipate this, and it should be canceled.
In practice, it becomes a powerful narrative that attracts people and start a new cycle. It’s mostly psychologically driven
u/GranPino Your advice would be much appreciated. Today I bought 3k btc, 1k eth, 1k solana, I want to sell at least at 2x, what do you think am I just making this shit up or it will work? I have researched saw some stuff, but couldn't bought earlier as I was waiting my trezor to ship
In 2020 FTX was pumping a global advertising campaign that would make Disney weep. It will be looked back on as a case study in a future marketing textbook (an example of how NOT to do it). SBF and his ilk are clearly not 'Mad Men' calibur.
Things are no different now then they were then. The tech environment surrounding bitcoin is as mature as it has ever been.There is good insight into this in the book Going Infinite. I recommend reading it asap, it offers perspective into some of the events currently unfolding, and a good behind the scenes look at the last run.
There are so many factors going for bitcoin right now, it would not be surprising to me if the "dips" are nothing more than 2-5% dings on a fairly upward trajectory until... discovery. How long does that take? There is no way to tell.
This is buried in comments so if anyone would like some thoughts from some rando on the internet, then cheers to boredom.
I have been involved in blockchain tech since 2013. Remember that very strange dogecoin movement in 2014? Check youtube, New York, San Fransisco, straight cringe. I was there. In college I ended up sticking around too long and ended up with degrees in econ, psyc, and philosophy. I travel, often internationally. I work in tech. I like DIY stuff, I like Bad Brains and Hatebreed. Bitcoin is a tool with a foundation in blockchain technology, it's a tool anyone is free to use, and it is particularly appealing to someone like me.
Broad conversations soon to come involving the implications of blockchain will be more profound that I can imagine. Not only in terms of macroeconomic and global financial systems, but in global society itself. It will be a shift at a global cultural level, and the concept of sovereignty will be brought into question completely. Don't get me started on post-modernism. How will it affect consumerism? Competition at a basic level? What will be the affect on art? Very exciting.
It is even possible that people will want to hang out with philosophy and economics nerds.
Anyway, Im not going to pretend I have any idea what the $ value of bitcoin is going to be tomorrow or in 2034, but I'll say that all things considered, I have never been as hopeful as I am right now for a major breakthrough in application, and more importantly, a better understanding and awareness of what this thing is. My best advice as someone who has been around for a while is: practice critical thinking skills and apply them. if youre wrong, figure out why as best you can, and never be afraid to fail. Failing is actually the goal. People that have wealth understand this (whether they are self aware is another issue).. And read, everything, and learn to filter out all the noise as best you can.
Here is one thing I am monitoring closely that I believe is important to understand a larger picture; news coming out of Nigeria right through this year.
Best luck.
Great comment. I’d say it’s a shame I’ll be the only one to read it, but the truth is no one on this sub would bother.
Momentum hasn’t even started yet. The current euphoria is a niche within a niche. Strap in.
This bull run, if it is that yet, feels different on here for sure. Last time it was all about uneducated crypto “bros” pumping this sub to oblivion, with people happily just throwing money at anything crypto. This time the massive rise we have seen hasn’t been accompanied by huge amounts of hopium posts on here. The reason for that is that this is being driven by the big boys now and no amount of small retail groups are gonna alter that. Since the ETFs were approved BIG money has flowed in and will continue to most likely. It seems a lot of people have been caught off guard by this rise, media is completely silent too, we are in the “disbelief” stage for sure.
Im so glad theres a karma limit on the dailies now. Fucking hated all the moonboys from 2021 talking about coins leaving the station and rocket ships and all that bullshit
the crypto bros are coming - they just aren’t here yet. We’re at about April 2020 on the halving timeline, crypto didn’t even go mainstream until 2021 for that cycle.
We are still incredibly early in the run (not even a bull run yet) and we’re a few % away from the ATH this time, no one has any idea just how crazy it’s going to be.
Big money was already in. When the rich want something, they don't wait around.
The people who are buying in now are the boomers, gen x'ers, and retirement account holders. The ETFs are the first time they have access to buy crypto. They were definitely not the ones making kraken and coinbase accounts before all this.
Agree that private wealth who wanted to get into crypto already got in before ETFs. I wouldn't underestimate that size of ETF flows but I don't think they are driving the market.
Assuming ppl actually trade is the first mistake, imo.
It's all bots. Cta trend trading bots. Scalping bots. Crypto sniper / arbitrage bots ...etc etc
Once the trend flips positive they all rush in. Crypto is auto regressive
Seems like you guys forgot COVID and how a lot of people got into crypto because of it. Doesn't necessarily mean they bought any crypto but certainly they talked about it and got at least a little bit interested because they had money and time to spare.
That's one thing that is different for sure.
I know a lot of people came over from the gamestop hype. I know people that bought in on gamestop and quickly flipped that over to crypto because that was popping off.
Covid research on money printing broke the seal on making bitcoin click for me. I’ve been working in the industry since and now my portfolio is significantly higher than it was at the height of the bull run in 2021. I cannot wait lol.
Funny, I feel the opposite. The last bull run felt like it was propped up by scammers blowing up the space. This one feels like it has legitimate momentum behind it with big institutional investors getting on board, including the rumors of large governments stockpiling. I'm feeling more optimistic about this run than any other in the past, which have felt more like pure hype cycles. This feels more like a wave of legitimacy for crypto. I've been riding the waves since 2011.
I agree. Legitimacy is necessary for the cycles to get bigger. The earliest crypto cycles were very "blink and you miss it" - exchange hacks and lost coins galore meant that you survived them not by trading but by turtling up and assuming minimal trust in any third party. It was genuinely speculative in that many people could not acknowledge it as an investment. Successive waves have involved increasingly high-cap players who angle to "win" crypto by inserting their middleman offering. The last wave was the venture capital firms. Now we're at the stage where it's the big banks, and they will move slower - but they have the ear of the regulators, and they can make the government get out of the way in ways that the little firms that came before could not. The next wave is government itself. And that's about as far as it can go as a "rising BTC lifts all boats" market. Once you get there, alts will see a second wind of interest since they can take the conversation around finance beyond the digital gold analogy.
I didn't know how to express how I've been feeling about the current run, and this puts it very well.
There also doesn't seem to be a lot of chains and alts claiming to be the next big thing in the Web3 space as there were last run, but of course, that might change in the coming months.
>There also doesn't seem to be a lot of chains and alts claiming to be the next big thing in the Web3 space as there were last run, but of course, that might change in the coming months.
Well the L1 space is too saturated... how many different L2's do we have now compared to new L1's from last cycle?
Thing is, it’s actually starting to feel like this time might actually be different…
ETFs are buying 10x the daily supply of btc per day, right now, and it doesn’t seem to be slowing yet. Not to mention multiple whales buying 100btc a day, steadily. That’s pretty wild.
Well your decision to sell almost half your stack before the halving is probably a rare case with anyone who’s been in crypto for 3-5 years, but as far as paying attention to all the YouTube guys and finding new alts I’m way out of the game. I got in after the 2018 crash and I’ve been waiting to unload these bags for a long time, I’m not buying anything new this time around, I’ve got enough new grey hairs worrying about it as it is lol
Haven’t bought shit, got ADA at 9 cents and ETH at $275, I have enough invested for my sanity, also I’m scared when the time comes to cash out there will be issues with the exchange or the bank freezing my assets after all the horror stories I’ve read on here even though I haven’t done anything shady. If all goes well and I make some good money I’ll reinvest in the next bear market
I work in finance. There were three boomers talking about their holdings in BTC yesterday and how it’s doing so well. Did not hear this last time around - I think a lot of people who were left on the sidelines last time DCA’d in after the crash and now how exposure.
Slowly getting to the people who purport it to be a scam, even if it is “Vegas money” to them.
nah its def not the same. The FTX/LUNA debacles still linger, unlike 2020/21. I personally don't think Instos will rush in to any type of adoption just because prices are going up.
We may have encounter a supercycle, as ETF could broke traditional cyclical BTC bull runs. Constant buying by institutions and limited supply would change everything.
Banks & DTCC (stock market) are also tokenizing. Banks already started w/ a deadline to be fully transitioned by Nov 2025. Dtcc (the stock market) has been testing for years but I'm not sure when their transition will take place.
Very well could be a super cycle this time!
It is always the same. Institutional investing is a meme. At the end of the day, it’s all corruption and insider trading from the people who control the markets. The markets do not move unless they will it. Crypto is the Wild West of the money markets. The people running it will make their multipliers at the expense of everyone else, just like everything in life. So play the game with caution.
I switched all my doge for Ethereum. I was contemplating it in the fall, began regretting not doing it earlier this month and finally did. I would have broken even at 15 cents with doge. Definitely wondering if doge will hit previous highs. I think i already broke even after trading my doge for eth, but i have t crunched numbers yet. Its been a heartbreaking rollercoaster even if i do come out in the green, i still regret crypto. Been looking at charts past few years. Thats not living. I mean it would be nice to come out heavy in green but im still bitter about this whole experience, even if i can save face.
Wouldn’t recommend this shit to anyone, sucks life out of you. (Unless ur some douche bag who can afford to lose daddy’s trust) also its like a gateway to gambling. Granted some projects are solid, you just cant tell how solid they are when they will reach full potential and if its worth the wait (1 year? 10 years) do u even have enough money to invest in a project that wont reach full potential til at least 10 years? Of course not u have a mortgage and would land a divorce if you gambled ur money like… idk. This had jut been my shitty take away. Maybe some of you see looking at charts as something worthwhile if it could potentially lead to gains. I have shit to do and hate the inclination to look at the stupid charts.
On the upside? It’s barely feb. March and april to go… halving and etf for Ethereum… back to staring at charts -_-
Wtf? Yea, you’re the type that is completely out of touch. Some ppl have put in all their damn savings in previous rallies and then killed themselves after losing it all or getting bamboozled. But yea, it’s just money. Money that equals work, that equals time away from loved ones or doing hobbies you like or being with friends in exchange for a miserable grind in the machine and if ur stupid enough to gamble and lose then yea suicide makes sense. It’s just money is said by those who’ve never known what that specific exchange rate is, ur fucking time, ur fucking hard labor. If its just money, those scenarios don’t exist for you.
I know what you mean man, this market can really take its toll on you. Even if you're lucky enough to come out the other side in the green.
I'm at least fortunate enough to be able to say I'm significantly in profit at the moment, but sometimes I look back on the journey that got me here and think, at what cost?
I somehow managed to monumentally fuck up December 2017, probably the greatest opportunity in crypto history, so badly that I ended up spending most of it being all-in on what I believe was the *only* crypto in the top 100 which didn't end up green that month.
I think back to all the missed opportunities and the numerous times I *almost* made a trade which would've made me a millionaire, but second guessed myself at the last minute and did something else. In 2018 I took out a $20k loan which I *almost* put into Chainlink at $0.25. Instead I picked something that declined heavily and led to me being so far down that I ended up basically capitulating in late November 2018 and losing it all through leverage trading. Which then led to an alcohol problem which I'm still struggling with today, and indirectly resulted in a knee injury in 2020 which still hasn't fully healed today... the joint doesn't feel right when I walk up stairs.
I think about the time I had around $5k in a leveraged long on BTC in March 2019 when BTC was $3950, had fully decided to just leave it for a few months and let it ride, but second guessed myself and cancelled it at the last minute before going to bed. Woke up in the morning to see one fo the craziest green candles I'd ever seen, and BTC literally went on to more than triple in price over the next couple months. When all was said and done I worked it out and my $5k could have turned into $200-300k+ if I'd just left it and stuck to my plan.
Or the time I could've cashed out in November 2021 for life changing profits, but I wanted to wait another 5 weeks for long term capital gains tax reduction from holding for a year... which ended up in me cashing out only a small portion after a massive loss, and having to ride out *another* bear market with a 90% loss.
I dunno man. It's been a wild ride haha.
“March 2019 when bitcoin was $3950” thats crazy. Hope that ethereum will do that. I remember the first time i heard of bitcoin and i was gnna buy, it was like at that price range… i tried to buy but my bank stopped me… i fucking hate them for that. I dont remember who i was banking with at the time. Either chase or wells fargo… they stopped it, i called and. The dude advised not to, that crypto was volatile… it is but fuck was that the right move at the time. Ive still hated this joirney. Still bitter. Hope ur in the green and its way WAY worth it for u dude.
Yea, the whole world is watching and allocating 1-3% of their funds into it all at the same time🤗, mind you, before the scheduled bull run shortly after the halving. Call this, the baby bull or pre bull, to the full bull or daddy bull that we’re about to see.
You're 8 years older than you were in 2016 - if things DON'T feel different to you, there's a problem. It's a perspective thing, right? Like, of course THINGS are different, but the most different thing in the equation is you. Keep that in mind as you look into your options and examine your feelings.
This cycle is wayyy more bullish than the last one and yet people are still traumatized from the last one, managing their expectations so they won’t get hurt as bad.
We’re not bullish enough and that just makes it even more bullish😂
We are still in the bear. The bull isn’t for another year. Look at February/March 2020 and adjust for current values if you want a preview.
Remember, don’t fall for the bear-trap post halving and be ready to buy more. This bull kicks off in about 10-12 months.
Ive been day trading shitcoins, now those shitcoins are all 2x to 10x their worth and i cant day trade shit coins now cost i dont want to be left holding the bag.
Yes, but in a completely different way. In the 2017 bull run, i was a complete investments newbie, with a few thousand dollars in the markets. I bought some crypto as well, but it was random, and not substantial amounts. Sold most of it in 2020 when i was finally in the green again.
This time round, I'm far more settled in life. Have sizeable investments that will allow me to stop working if i have to, and have been DCAing into btc and ether since 2021. Not a crypto Maxi, only have some 3-4% in it, but it is still quite a large amount for the country i live in. Still haven't delved into the tech stack, but probably will now.
So it's a lot more measured. Taking a few bets on the swing, apart from the hodl stack which i won't touch.
In crypto, timing is EVERYTHING. All these moonboys on here yap on about time in the market wins, thats a load of bullshit and everybody knows it.
The key is to get in and out fast while you are in the green, because everyone knows when the dump happens it will be hard and painful.
This is a silly comment. We have 15 years of charts to prove that time in the market wins. Yeah I agree timing is everything for maximizing profits, but that doesn't mean it needs to be in and out quickly. This is going to be a much slower and longer run-up than previously, given the maturity of the market, as has been the case every new cycle. Also, you will never perfectly time the markets anyway. Getting in and out quickly is a surefire way to make lackluster gains.
> We have 15 years of charts to prove that time in the market wins.
no it fucking doesnt, that literally only applies to BTC and nothing else. Telling people to diamond hand in this market is so stupid, thats how and why 80% of people on here are still bag holding from 2021
The ETFs have definitely sped up things. BTC passed the previous ATH only in December of the year preceding the halving year in the previous two bull runs, but this time it’s gonna pass it much sooner.
And then there’s the AI hype as well, which is causing AI based coins to pump.
Yeah, there aren't really any dips. I had doubts we would break a new ATH before Q3 2024, but here we are. No one wants to sell. Which is totally understandable.
Fewer bad actors that could bring it crashing down later on.
No algorithmic stablecoins, FTX, 3AC, or Celsius. The only wildcard I can think of is Eigenlayer.
Also, no government stimulus. Instead, we have the Bitcoin ETFs pumping it this time.
ETFs have created a brand new reality. No longer speculation when buying Bitcoin. It is official. THAT is the difference. So happy the SEC finally agreed.
this bull run is giving vibe of reality. don't be greedy , take profit time to time. doesn't care whether it's going up more and more.
we are not whake and keep cash as sidelines at reasonable amount is better. and wait to see more on next chapter
Actually this ETF certification was the missing link. It creates a ride for all Alt coins. Some will have a "correction" because they have no utility. But the correction that many are chatting about is no longer relevant as a cycle.
so u sell shit before ath? u see the money coming in? like the real money…this time will be different…yes in a much bigger way. 150k$ btc? thats a joke…
When I rode the wave in 2017 I was glued to the price every hour, told all my friends to buy crypto, threw Eth at every shit ICO etc. Never took profit.
2021 I was a lot calmer, took small profits on the way up, and did fewer mistakes.
Today I'm sitting calmly in the boat, and don't plan on selling anything before summer 2025. My goal now is to place my extra funds in the right alts, while hunting airdrops to scratch the itch to do something. My main funds are safely placed away.
Seems to be less overall excitement. At least in the US. I'm not sure if its because of the upcoming election, the fact that everyone is broke, the endless bad news cycles. Or, a combination of all that.
For me, it's all about eliminating as much "noise" as possible and buckle down on a just a few projects. I'm talking like 4-5 projects MAX! Instead of spreading myself to thin. Concentrate on a small group of projects and let it ride!
I waited and hodled for the 2020 halving. Then i waited and hodled for the 2024 halving. Definitely not selling anything till i meet that target or 12 months after the halving having fully priced in
People really should pay attention to what’s going on outside of crypto this time. Chinas failing hard, the stock market is being kept afloat by Nivida, and we are less than one year from all the bank failures and the failure of chinas economy coming to roost. This bull run is going to be very different, and I honestly have no idea how it will play out, but I don’t think it’s going to be like previous ones.
CTO Larson has an amazing video up where he tries to predict the price of bitcoin in this cycle.
The video itself is good, but one main takeaway from that that I’m focusing on is: Bitcoin has always had more return post-halving, then pre-halving.
Tap on traditional finance entering the game which changes everything for this cycle.
Personally I don’t need the money right now, even if I’m in some serious gains. Riding my bag throughout the year and on towards Valhalla.
No shame in taking profits though, if that is something that would make you happy. If you need cash, you need cash. I’ve sold my bags twice in the past to help when I needed a cash-flow.
in 2014 I bought like $5k bitcoin and yolod it on shitfinex
totally got rekt watched the money evaporate
I quit crypto forever until 2015 when momentum started actually building again
2016-17 was fun, I imbided that moonijuana for real
it was the similar sentiment in 2020 as we approached $20k. we were passing an old ATH, and few people that weren't already into crypto seemed to care. it wasn't until we got a bit over the hump into the high 20s that the mania started taking off. trust me; when we hit $80k bitcoin (probably soon enough here tbh), the narrative of *"Bitcoin to $100k"* and *"last chance to buy at 5 digits"* will be **everywhere**, and it's gonna be a wild ride.
Then eventually media panic at the slightest dip will cause the noobs to crypto to all start panic selling as all their life savings are in there causing the market to crash again. And then the cycle continues.
The cycle cannot fully continue until Bitcoin is declared dead again. I don't know if that's the beginning of the cycle or the end, but Bitcoin must die to thrive. ^/s
that which is dead may never die
We are free
My 2 cents: 1. FOMO is a lot less intense. 2. ETFs played the counter 2020 scenario and we have started a year early.
The 4 years cycle is mostly based in a self fulfilling prophecy. It doesn’t make any financial sense to have “predicted patterns” because it’s free money. But if enough people believe in it, they will create the pattern. But logically, it will start anticipating itself, the bull and the burst. I sold most of my portfolio in 2021. I bought back during the bear market. I’m unsure if we are far away from the peak. But I’m sad too many people will believe they know looking at former cycles. And too many people don’t know how to invest with reasonable risk We will see
Sure, No two waves are identical (even no two drops of water) let alone market cycles.
Shhhhhh the halving is scientifically proven and it is a prophecy that has been known to men forever (I need money).
The theory will reinforce itself yes, but I am convinced that scarcity driven by fewer block rewards is a thing.
In a normal world, people would anticipate this, and it should be canceled. In practice, it becomes a powerful narrative that attracts people and start a new cycle. It’s mostly psychologically driven
u/GranPino Your advice would be much appreciated. Today I bought 3k btc, 1k eth, 1k solana, I want to sell at least at 2x, what do you think am I just making this shit up or it will work? I have researched saw some stuff, but couldn't bought earlier as I was waiting my trezor to ship
Exactly this! These noobs buy high and sell low and then scream about ‘crypto scam’, ‘crypto is dead’ etc🤦
We will not be the bagholders anymore...long live the rinse and repeat cycle.
what feels different is that were edging real close to ATH many many weeks before the halving
> it was the similar sentiment in 2020 as we approached $20k. That was after the halving. The new one hasn't arrived yet.
Spot on. This feels exactly how it felt in 2020 when it hit $20k and the alt moves started happening.
It wasn’t this calm in 2020. OP is right.
In 2020 FTX was pumping a global advertising campaign that would make Disney weep. It will be looked back on as a case study in a future marketing textbook (an example of how NOT to do it). SBF and his ilk are clearly not 'Mad Men' calibur. Things are no different now then they were then. The tech environment surrounding bitcoin is as mature as it has ever been.There is good insight into this in the book Going Infinite. I recommend reading it asap, it offers perspective into some of the events currently unfolding, and a good behind the scenes look at the last run. There are so many factors going for bitcoin right now, it would not be surprising to me if the "dips" are nothing more than 2-5% dings on a fairly upward trajectory until... discovery. How long does that take? There is no way to tell. This is buried in comments so if anyone would like some thoughts from some rando on the internet, then cheers to boredom. I have been involved in blockchain tech since 2013. Remember that very strange dogecoin movement in 2014? Check youtube, New York, San Fransisco, straight cringe. I was there. In college I ended up sticking around too long and ended up with degrees in econ, psyc, and philosophy. I travel, often internationally. I work in tech. I like DIY stuff, I like Bad Brains and Hatebreed. Bitcoin is a tool with a foundation in blockchain technology, it's a tool anyone is free to use, and it is particularly appealing to someone like me. Broad conversations soon to come involving the implications of blockchain will be more profound that I can imagine. Not only in terms of macroeconomic and global financial systems, but in global society itself. It will be a shift at a global cultural level, and the concept of sovereignty will be brought into question completely. Don't get me started on post-modernism. How will it affect consumerism? Competition at a basic level? What will be the affect on art? Very exciting. It is even possible that people will want to hang out with philosophy and economics nerds. Anyway, Im not going to pretend I have any idea what the $ value of bitcoin is going to be tomorrow or in 2034, but I'll say that all things considered, I have never been as hopeful as I am right now for a major breakthrough in application, and more importantly, a better understanding and awareness of what this thing is. My best advice as someone who has been around for a while is: practice critical thinking skills and apply them. if youre wrong, figure out why as best you can, and never be afraid to fail. Failing is actually the goal. People that have wealth understand this (whether they are self aware is another issue).. And read, everything, and learn to filter out all the noise as best you can. Here is one thing I am monitoring closely that I believe is important to understand a larger picture; news coming out of Nigeria right through this year. Best luck.
Great comment. I’d say it’s a shame I’ll be the only one to read it, but the truth is no one on this sub would bother. Momentum hasn’t even started yet. The current euphoria is a niche within a niche. Strap in.
In February it really was
You think 80 is peak?
absolutely not and I said no such thing
No I’m asking
BEHOLD it's moonijuana time only the pump is real
Lat chance of buying 100k and selling 40k you mean?
The FOMO will be huge, and it also looks like altcoin season is back. I made over 2X on QANX in the last couple of days.
This bull run, if it is that yet, feels different on here for sure. Last time it was all about uneducated crypto “bros” pumping this sub to oblivion, with people happily just throwing money at anything crypto. This time the massive rise we have seen hasn’t been accompanied by huge amounts of hopium posts on here. The reason for that is that this is being driven by the big boys now and no amount of small retail groups are gonna alter that. Since the ETFs were approved BIG money has flowed in and will continue to most likely. It seems a lot of people have been caught off guard by this rise, media is completely silent too, we are in the “disbelief” stage for sure.
Im so glad theres a karma limit on the dailies now. Fucking hated all the moonboys from 2021 talking about coins leaving the station and rocket ships and all that bullshit
the crypto bros are coming - they just aren’t here yet. We’re at about April 2020 on the halving timeline, crypto didn’t even go mainstream until 2021 for that cycle. We are still incredibly early in the run (not even a bull run yet) and we’re a few % away from the ATH this time, no one has any idea just how crazy it’s going to be.
That’s if the run is identical to the last ones, it may not be
Big money was already in. When the rich want something, they don't wait around. The people who are buying in now are the boomers, gen x'ers, and retirement account holders. The ETFs are the first time they have access to buy crypto. They were definitely not the ones making kraken and coinbase accounts before all this.
I disagree with that but that’s fine we all have our opinions and I respect yours.
Agree that private wealth who wanted to get into crypto already got in before ETFs. I wouldn't underestimate that size of ETF flows but I don't think they are driving the market. Assuming ppl actually trade is the first mistake, imo. It's all bots. Cta trend trading bots. Scalping bots. Crypto sniper / arbitrage bots ...etc etc Once the trend flips positive they all rush in. Crypto is auto regressive
I think he meant institutional money. Sure there were plenty of rich holders but the banks weren’t likely very committed yet
There are so many uneducated crypto beos pumping crypto but they’ve taken to Twitter and TikTok instead of Reddit. Way more than past runs
Also there were all the “wow, did you hear about this meme coin that I happen to hold a huge bag of?”
Most of us believed from the start, even after the FTX crash.
Seems like you guys forgot COVID and how a lot of people got into crypto because of it. Doesn't necessarily mean they bought any crypto but certainly they talked about it and got at least a little bit interested because they had money and time to spare. That's one thing that is different for sure.
I know a lot of people came over from the gamestop hype. I know people that bought in on gamestop and quickly flipped that over to crypto because that was popping off.
Oh yeah the GameStop incident! I forgot about that!
Still going on. Shorts never closed.
And gamestop also sells crypto themed trading cards in their stores. A few random packs had redeemable amounts of crypto.
When we bought LRC at 3 because their upcoming GME partnership would send it to the moon.
Covid research on money printing broke the seal on making bitcoin click for me. I’ve been working in the industry since and now my portfolio is significantly higher than it was at the height of the bull run in 2021. I cannot wait lol.
Fomo is in 120k Not 69k Remember.
95k
Everyone has FOMO for 69
***Amen to that***
Funny, I feel the opposite. The last bull run felt like it was propped up by scammers blowing up the space. This one feels like it has legitimate momentum behind it with big institutional investors getting on board, including the rumors of large governments stockpiling. I'm feeling more optimistic about this run than any other in the past, which have felt more like pure hype cycles. This feels more like a wave of legitimacy for crypto. I've been riding the waves since 2011.
I agree. Legitimacy is necessary for the cycles to get bigger. The earliest crypto cycles were very "blink and you miss it" - exchange hacks and lost coins galore meant that you survived them not by trading but by turtling up and assuming minimal trust in any third party. It was genuinely speculative in that many people could not acknowledge it as an investment. Successive waves have involved increasingly high-cap players who angle to "win" crypto by inserting their middleman offering. The last wave was the venture capital firms. Now we're at the stage where it's the big banks, and they will move slower - but they have the ear of the regulators, and they can make the government get out of the way in ways that the little firms that came before could not. The next wave is government itself. And that's about as far as it can go as a "rising BTC lifts all boats" market. Once you get there, alts will see a second wind of interest since they can take the conversation around finance beyond the digital gold analogy.
Maybe a dot com bubble wil come to kill alts with no reason to exist. Internet matured quickly after the dot com bubble
I didn't know how to express how I've been feeling about the current run, and this puts it very well. There also doesn't seem to be a lot of chains and alts claiming to be the next big thing in the Web3 space as there were last run, but of course, that might change in the coming months.
>There also doesn't seem to be a lot of chains and alts claiming to be the next big thing in the Web3 space as there were last run, but of course, that might change in the coming months. Well the L1 space is too saturated... how many different L2's do we have now compared to new L1's from last cycle?
There were plenty of "This time it's different!" posts last time as well.
Chinese New Year! Wall Street bonuses!
Thing is, it’s actually starting to feel like this time might actually be different… ETFs are buying 10x the daily supply of btc per day, right now, and it doesn’t seem to be slowing yet. Not to mention multiple whales buying 100btc a day, steadily. That’s pretty wild.
There were no ETFs then. NFTs are not the same thing.
There are more this time than last time imo already alllll over Twitter for months now
and it was, it just wasnt the end
…but…this time is different
Well your decision to sell almost half your stack before the halving is probably a rare case with anyone who’s been in crypto for 3-5 years, but as far as paying attention to all the YouTube guys and finding new alts I’m way out of the game. I got in after the 2018 crash and I’ve been waiting to unload these bags for a long time, I’m not buying anything new this time around, I’ve got enough new grey hairs worrying about it as it is lol
Hopefully you've been DCAing them alts the last 12-18 months.... Why is this downvoted? This sub is full of actual fucking morons
Haven’t bought shit, got ADA at 9 cents and ETH at $275, I have enough invested for my sanity, also I’m scared when the time comes to cash out there will be issues with the exchange or the bank freezing my assets after all the horror stories I’ve read on here even though I haven’t done anything shady. If all goes well and I make some good money I’ll reinvest in the next bear market
Wait until $100k. You’ll feel it.
This time is different 😂
I work in finance. There were three boomers talking about their holdings in BTC yesterday and how it’s doing so well. Did not hear this last time around - I think a lot of people who were left on the sidelines last time DCA’d in after the crash and now how exposure. Slowly getting to the people who purport it to be a scam, even if it is “Vegas money” to them.
Ever increasing demand vs absolute scarcity... Mmm i wonder whats gonna happen longterm.
no its the same. last run also got big boy money flows in
nah its def not the same. The FTX/LUNA debacles still linger, unlike 2020/21. I personally don't think Instos will rush in to any type of adoption just because prices are going up.
We may have encounter a supercycle, as ETF could broke traditional cyclical BTC bull runs. Constant buying by institutions and limited supply would change everything.
Banks & DTCC (stock market) are also tokenizing. Banks already started w/ a deadline to be fully transitioned by Nov 2025. Dtcc (the stock market) has been testing for years but I'm not sure when their transition will take place. Very well could be a super cycle this time!
Also we may have less voliatility and instead of crazy cycles we may see steady slow growth like we have with S&P 500. With consistent 2-40% years.
It is always the same. Institutional investing is a meme. At the end of the day, it’s all corruption and insider trading from the people who control the markets. The markets do not move unless they will it. Crypto is the Wild West of the money markets. The people running it will make their multipliers at the expense of everyone else, just like everything in life. So play the game with caution.
I switched all my doge for Ethereum. I was contemplating it in the fall, began regretting not doing it earlier this month and finally did. I would have broken even at 15 cents with doge. Definitely wondering if doge will hit previous highs. I think i already broke even after trading my doge for eth, but i have t crunched numbers yet. Its been a heartbreaking rollercoaster even if i do come out in the green, i still regret crypto. Been looking at charts past few years. Thats not living. I mean it would be nice to come out heavy in green but im still bitter about this whole experience, even if i can save face. Wouldn’t recommend this shit to anyone, sucks life out of you. (Unless ur some douche bag who can afford to lose daddy’s trust) also its like a gateway to gambling. Granted some projects are solid, you just cant tell how solid they are when they will reach full potential and if its worth the wait (1 year? 10 years) do u even have enough money to invest in a project that wont reach full potential til at least 10 years? Of course not u have a mortgage and would land a divorce if you gambled ur money like… idk. This had jut been my shitty take away. Maybe some of you see looking at charts as something worthwhile if it could potentially lead to gains. I have shit to do and hate the inclination to look at the stupid charts. On the upside? It’s barely feb. March and april to go… halving and etf for Ethereum… back to staring at charts -_-
Dude, chill. It‘s just money. Don‘t worry too much.
Wtf? Yea, you’re the type that is completely out of touch. Some ppl have put in all their damn savings in previous rallies and then killed themselves after losing it all or getting bamboozled. But yea, it’s just money. Money that equals work, that equals time away from loved ones or doing hobbies you like or being with friends in exchange for a miserable grind in the machine and if ur stupid enough to gamble and lose then yea suicide makes sense. It’s just money is said by those who’ve never known what that specific exchange rate is, ur fucking time, ur fucking hard labor. If its just money, those scenarios don’t exist for you.
You have a grim stance on life, relax
I know what you mean man, this market can really take its toll on you. Even if you're lucky enough to come out the other side in the green. I'm at least fortunate enough to be able to say I'm significantly in profit at the moment, but sometimes I look back on the journey that got me here and think, at what cost? I somehow managed to monumentally fuck up December 2017, probably the greatest opportunity in crypto history, so badly that I ended up spending most of it being all-in on what I believe was the *only* crypto in the top 100 which didn't end up green that month. I think back to all the missed opportunities and the numerous times I *almost* made a trade which would've made me a millionaire, but second guessed myself at the last minute and did something else. In 2018 I took out a $20k loan which I *almost* put into Chainlink at $0.25. Instead I picked something that declined heavily and led to me being so far down that I ended up basically capitulating in late November 2018 and losing it all through leverage trading. Which then led to an alcohol problem which I'm still struggling with today, and indirectly resulted in a knee injury in 2020 which still hasn't fully healed today... the joint doesn't feel right when I walk up stairs. I think about the time I had around $5k in a leveraged long on BTC in March 2019 when BTC was $3950, had fully decided to just leave it for a few months and let it ride, but second guessed myself and cancelled it at the last minute before going to bed. Woke up in the morning to see one fo the craziest green candles I'd ever seen, and BTC literally went on to more than triple in price over the next couple months. When all was said and done I worked it out and my $5k could have turned into $200-300k+ if I'd just left it and stuck to my plan. Or the time I could've cashed out in November 2021 for life changing profits, but I wanted to wait another 5 weeks for long term capital gains tax reduction from holding for a year... which ended up in me cashing out only a small portion after a massive loss, and having to ride out *another* bear market with a 90% loss. I dunno man. It's been a wild ride haha.
“March 2019 when bitcoin was $3950” thats crazy. Hope that ethereum will do that. I remember the first time i heard of bitcoin and i was gnna buy, it was like at that price range… i tried to buy but my bank stopped me… i fucking hate them for that. I dont remember who i was banking with at the time. Either chase or wells fargo… they stopped it, i called and. The dude advised not to, that crypto was volatile… it is but fuck was that the right move at the time. Ive still hated this joirney. Still bitter. Hope ur in the green and its way WAY worth it for u dude.
Not sure, but i am in profits.
Not a bull run.
Yea, the whole world is watching and allocating 1-3% of their funds into it all at the same time🤗, mind you, before the scheduled bull run shortly after the halving. Call this, the baby bull or pre bull, to the full bull or daddy bull that we’re about to see.
It's just another run.
You're 8 years older than you were in 2016 - if things DON'T feel different to you, there's a problem. It's a perspective thing, right? Like, of course THINGS are different, but the most different thing in the equation is you. Keep that in mind as you look into your options and examine your feelings.
This cycle is wayyy more bullish than the last one and yet people are still traumatized from the last one, managing their expectations so they won’t get hurt as bad. We’re not bullish enough and that just makes it even more bullish😂
We are still in the bear. The bull isn’t for another year. Look at February/March 2020 and adjust for current values if you want a preview. Remember, don’t fall for the bear-trap post halving and be ready to buy more. This bull kicks off in about 10-12 months.
Ive been day trading shitcoins, now those shitcoins are all 2x to 10x their worth and i cant day trade shit coins now cost i dont want to be left holding the bag.
Were still ~51 days away from the halving and we're near BTC ATH. Yes it's extremely different.
Yes, but in a completely different way. In the 2017 bull run, i was a complete investments newbie, with a few thousand dollars in the markets. I bought some crypto as well, but it was random, and not substantial amounts. Sold most of it in 2020 when i was finally in the green again. This time round, I'm far more settled in life. Have sizeable investments that will allow me to stop working if i have to, and have been DCAing into btc and ether since 2021. Not a crypto Maxi, only have some 3-4% in it, but it is still quite a large amount for the country i live in. Still haven't delved into the tech stack, but probably will now. So it's a lot more measured. Taking a few bets on the swing, apart from the hodl stack which i won't touch.
Yawn fest
I sold off 5% of my bag at the top, now ima just wait a bit
In crypto, timing is EVERYTHING. All these moonboys on here yap on about time in the market wins, thats a load of bullshit and everybody knows it. The key is to get in and out fast while you are in the green, because everyone knows when the dump happens it will be hard and painful.
This is a silly comment. We have 15 years of charts to prove that time in the market wins. Yeah I agree timing is everything for maximizing profits, but that doesn't mean it needs to be in and out quickly. This is going to be a much slower and longer run-up than previously, given the maturity of the market, as has been the case every new cycle. Also, you will never perfectly time the markets anyway. Getting in and out quickly is a surefire way to make lackluster gains.
> We have 15 years of charts to prove that time in the market wins. no it fucking doesnt, that literally only applies to BTC and nothing else. Telling people to diamond hand in this market is so stupid, thats how and why 80% of people on here are still bag holding from 2021
Oh you're talking about shitcoins? Well, yeah. But that doesn't count.
Crypto is a scam.
It for sure does feel different, it's strange. I'm holding and continuing to DCA for now though.
The ETFs have definitely sped up things. BTC passed the previous ATH only in December of the year preceding the halving year in the previous two bull runs, but this time it’s gonna pass it much sooner. And then there’s the AI hype as well, which is causing AI based coins to pump.
Road to 100k
Yeah, there aren't really any dips. I had doubts we would break a new ATH before Q3 2024, but here we are. No one wants to sell. Which is totally understandable.
Fewer bad actors that could bring it crashing down later on. No algorithmic stablecoins, FTX, 3AC, or Celsius. The only wildcard I can think of is Eigenlayer. Also, no government stimulus. Instead, we have the Bitcoin ETFs pumping it this time.
hope this is not like we had in start of 2019 where it looked like we go for all time high and then crash
Nah same shit. Sell off starts anywhere north of $90k.
It feels different to me as I have more concrete plans than last time.
Feel the exact same way bro
its because this one has nothing to do with 'retail', and the biggest moves are happening off chain. this time its different, i swear
ETFs have created a brand new reality. No longer speculation when buying Bitcoin. It is official. THAT is the difference. So happy the SEC finally agreed.
only for btc. alts can suck it
this bull run is giving vibe of reality. don't be greedy , take profit time to time. doesn't care whether it's going up more and more. we are not whake and keep cash as sidelines at reasonable amount is better. and wait to see more on next chapter
Actually this ETF certification was the missing link. It creates a ride for all Alt coins. Some will have a "correction" because they have no utility. But the correction that many are chatting about is no longer relevant as a cycle.
so u sell shit before ath? u see the money coming in? like the real money…this time will be different…yes in a much bigger way. 150k$ btc? thats a joke…
When I rode the wave in 2017 I was glued to the price every hour, told all my friends to buy crypto, threw Eth at every shit ICO etc. Never took profit. 2021 I was a lot calmer, took small profits on the way up, and did fewer mistakes. Today I'm sitting calmly in the boat, and don't plan on selling anything before summer 2025. My goal now is to place my extra funds in the right alts, while hunting airdrops to scratch the itch to do something. My main funds are safely placed away.
Nah, same as ever
2011 holder here. I think we top at 80k around halving and that's it for a while
Yeah but it also seems the same.
Nah we're just old now 👴🗝️🧓
Seems to be less overall excitement. At least in the US. I'm not sure if its because of the upcoming election, the fact that everyone is broke, the endless bad news cycles. Or, a combination of all that.
No. I am holding and haven’t touched my stash for the past 2 years. Maybe when ETH goes above 10k, I will think about scaling out a bit.
No its literally no different, youre just misremembering the past
For me, it's all about eliminating as much "noise" as possible and buckle down on a just a few projects. I'm talking like 4-5 projects MAX! Instead of spreading myself to thin. Concentrate on a small group of projects and let it ride!
Dude, it hasn’t even started yet. 🤣
I waited and hodled for the 2020 halving. Then i waited and hodled for the 2024 halving. Definitely not selling anything till i meet that target or 12 months after the halving having fully priced in
It feels different to me as after ETF, no doubt BTC is an impressive project, personally I think it will hit ath this month.
People really should pay attention to what’s going on outside of crypto this time. Chinas failing hard, the stock market is being kept afloat by Nivida, and we are less than one year from all the bank failures and the failure of chinas economy coming to roost. This bull run is going to be very different, and I honestly have no idea how it will play out, but I don’t think it’s going to be like previous ones.
CTO Larson has an amazing video up where he tries to predict the price of bitcoin in this cycle. The video itself is good, but one main takeaway from that that I’m focusing on is: Bitcoin has always had more return post-halving, then pre-halving. Tap on traditional finance entering the game which changes everything for this cycle. Personally I don’t need the money right now, even if I’m in some serious gains. Riding my bag throughout the year and on towards Valhalla. No shame in taking profits though, if that is something that would make you happy. If you need cash, you need cash. I’ve sold my bags twice in the past to help when I needed a cash-flow.
in 2014 I bought like $5k bitcoin and yolod it on shitfinex totally got rekt watched the money evaporate I quit crypto forever until 2015 when momentum started actually building again 2016-17 was fun, I imbided that moonijuana for real