Even single season, a jump in efficiency in the new run heavy offence means he could still have good yardage and TD numbers in a better offence. He also has way more rushing upside than those guys as well. Under this coaching staff he could very well rush for 300-400 yards and 5 TDs
He finished his worst last year, QB17, while missing 4 and a half games. If heās healthy, thereās no way he falls out of the top 20, even with his depleted WR group. I do agree however, that with this team heās most likely not top 10 this coming season.
I just canāt get over this comment lol. Are you comparing the niners roster and coach to the chargers and just assuming Herbert will match Purdy? Who broke the league in efficiency? Youāve lost your mind.
Not a single snap has been played yet and its a foregone conclusion that Herbert has become the QB in the chargers new Army triple option offense. Ridiculous.
Same. I had 1.09 in rookie 12 team SF and the guy at 1.07 took him surprisingly leaving me with Bowers who I am not upset about but yes, Iād like Ladd as well
Can we ban posts that try to link betting odds to real life? Holy shit Iām so sick of this type of posting. Vegas odds reflect public sentiment and public sentiment has no bearing on how athletes perform.
People win absurd amounts of money of pro sports betting by taking advantage of bad lines. Vegas lines arenāt meant to be right, theyāre meant to take money off the casual better.
You mean the Vegas that had Will Levis going 1st overall in the draft last year? Vegas odds arenāt an exact science and they have other things baked in.
Edit: Apparently I was spreading harmful misinformation. The odds of Will Levis going 1st overall and increased near the time of the draft but didnāt reach odds higher than Bryce Young. Iām sorry to all those I have hurt.
I think he means the Vegas that firmly had Bryce Young as the favorite to go 1st overall. Not sure which Vegas you're referring to.
Edit: you blocked me so I can't actually respond but come on man, you left a sassy comment based around a faulty premise (again, Young's implied odds to go 1st stayed above 90% during the Levis chaos) and are acting personally attacked by me correcting you in the same tone.
Vegas odds shifted within days of the draft to have Will Levis go 1st overall because of a fucking Reddit post claiming to be Levisā friend.
If you want to clap back and say āOh yeah, well they fixed that and Bryce was the odds-on favorite the day of the draft when it mattered,ā then consider this guy is basing Herbertās performance off of Vegas odds in mf May.
Okay, prove me wrong. Back test Vegas passing yards props from the pre season of any given year and let me know how many lines are within 50 yards of what that player actually threw. Also, how the hell are passing yard prop line a measure of fantasy relevance? What about touchdowns and rushing, never mind the fact that youāre looking at single season lines and posting about them in the dynasty sub.
Havenāt played a game under the new coaching staff >> Herbert is trashed. The NFL is going to let Gus Edwards, bubble-wrapped JK Dobbins and Josh Kelly run them off the field every game?
Top 15 guy while missing 4 games and playing through injury for 2 seasons. Signed a big extension and has a real coach now.
Go ahead. Sell him for pennies. Iām buying.
Who said anything about selling for pennies? The OP is just saying he's overvalued. On KTC he was the QB7 at the end of the season, he's just dipped to QB9. I totally agree he's no longer a top10 asset, so if you can get QB9 valuation, it's an easy sell for me. I don't think he's down to QB20 as the OP says, but I'd prob have him in the QB15-17 range.
I sold him based on his top10 valuation and couldn't be happier.
So youād take Daniels, Lawrence, Purdy, Maye, Prescott, Tua and McCarthy all over Herbert? Most of that is insane to me. Heās shown a higher ceiling than almost anyone in the league, and heās almost definitely gonna be a franchise QB for another decade. Ridiculous to dock him that far for his short term situation
I mean, Purdy, Trevor, and Dak all outscored him on PPG basis last year, and Tua wasn't far behind. Tua's numbers have been improving while Herbert's have been declining. And this is before Herbert lost his top 2 WRs, his top TE, and top RBs and got the Roman/Harbaugh offense. So, yeah, I'll rate them above him right now. I'd rank him above Maye since the NE situation is garbage, and prob even with Daniels and JJM. But if JJM has a decent showing and shows he could replicate what Cousins was doing in Year 2, I'd have him above Herbert too by the end of the year. If Daniels shows he can have a career similar to Kyler, he'd be above Herbert, too.
Other than Dak, all the QBs are the same draft class or younger. And Dak should still have 5+ years of top QB play where I'm unconcerned about needing to replace him any time soon.
Finally, 'short term situation' could easily be years. Harbaugh was at the Niners for 4, if he's winning he will have longevity. Roman offenses were top5 in rushing attempts and bottom10 in passing attempts, so Herbert will have to have insane efficiency just to be around QB15, which, to be fair, I think he can achieve. I think he'll end up being a better real life QB than for fantasy.
Last year when he was injured *and* both his top weapons were? Useful data pointā¦ The only active QBs whoāve outscored his ā21 season(his last healthy one) are Mahomes, Allen and Lamar once. His numbers have only been ādecliningā because he was injured in back to back years.
Tuaās elevated by his weapons and scheme, Tyreek is only there for a couple more years.
Herbertās weapon situation is temporary, and we donāt know what the scheme will look like. Harbaugh has never had a talent like Herbert, and he took the job *specifically because* he wanted to work with Herbert.
You say youāll rate them above him right now, but thatās using redraft process to talk about dynasty rankings.
Any of the rookies would sell their soul to have Herbertās production. The only one you mentioned who could match his ceiling is Daniels, only because of the rushing. Itās more likely they bust than hit their ceiling, until they prove they can hang in the league they have no business ranked above Herbert.
Dakās a good-not-great QB who could find himself on a different team sooner than later.
Once again, we donāt know how theyāll scheme with Herbert. The weapons are the short term issue, not the scheme. Their RBs are mid at best, and their QB is a top arm talent. Plus, Russ Wilson in Seattle was a top half QB1 for years with roughly 400-500 pass attempts yearly. People are insanely overreacting to scheme concerns.
Who said anything about selling for pennies? The OP is just saying he's overvalued. On KTC he was the QB7 at the end of the season, he's just dipped to QB9. I totally agree he's no longer a top10 asset, so if you can get QB9 valuation, it's an easy sell for me. I don't think he's down to QB20 as the OP says, but I'd prob have him in the QB15-17 range.
I sold him based on his top10 valuation and couldn't be happier.
There's more to fantasy points than simply yards. Not to mention that just because they don't think he will lead the league doesn't mean they think he will have the 20th most. They could easily be confident he's going to have the fifth more yards but not expect him to lead the league
A more accurate measurement would be checking each QBs over/under yardage and TD totals and ranking them each based on their own predictions
Will Levis has the exact same over/under yardage as Herbert. Carr is higher. You can see on that site. It might actually look worse going player by player over/under totals.
Herbert has better rushing upside than both of them, and their TD totals are more important than yardage totals. Like I said, there's more to fantasy points than passing yards.
Heās going to be fine. Heās a great QB and hopefully the WRās develop and they get this thing rolling by seasons end. This year might just be the new floor with this new coaching staff but the future is bright
If anything, the fact that he has top-15 odds with a WR room consisting of Josh Palmer, Quentin Johnston, and Ladd McConkey has me feeling all the better about him.
Situations change faster than talent. Herbert has two seasons averaging 22+ PPG (his first two in the league)
CJ Stroud is currently going as a top-5 startup pick after putting up 18.6.
I sold him for Love + 1.05 + 3.01 a couple months ago but still didnāt think it was a complete smash accept despite what the perceived values involved are (per KTC). I think youāre delusional to suggest herbert is anywhere outside the top 7-8 dynasty qbs (and he might be higher than that).
I have Love>Herbert so to get additional assets on top is a huge win in my book. I sold Herbert in a package deal to get Daniels and feel great about it. I have no idea if Daniels will pay off but his ceiling is super high and I know once the season starts Herbert's value will plummet.
Vegas doesnāt also factor in long term picture. Itās just a yearly/weekly thing. In no way would I ever take Geno or Carr over Herbert, even in redraft. So I wouldnāt take Vegas too seriously when regarding a young QB like Herbert
Your last comment is either blatantly false or you are betting on Harbaugh being a total idiot. Smart coaches use the talent they have. I donāt care what he did at Michigan. Herbert is, by a landslide, the best QB heās ever coached. Sure his volume will decrease but Iāll bet against him falling outside the top 20 all day. The fade has been beyond stupid. Iām happy to buy him from anyone fading him to this degree.
Youāre going to get downvoted and I honeslty think you went too far, QB20 is fairly low. That saidā¦ waaayyy too many people are putting blinders on and not accepting that more than likely Herbert wonāt be a QB1 this year (top 12ish). His best receiving option is a rookie and itās pretty clear that their coach (and OC!) want to run the ball. I wouldnāt be rushing to sell him but if youāre a contender I think itās prudent to see if you can get a different QB at Herbertās value right now.
Right, I mean Herbertās weapons are even worse than Mahomesā weapons last year and even he struggled.. Herbert owners seem to think heās better than Mahomes or something
lol the scale of people bailing on Herbert has gotten ridiculous. If you think a coaching staff that came to the team because of him, isnāt going to utilize him, youāre just shortsighted and ignorant.
Why I think top 20 is a bit extreme. I definitely see him in the 15 area, plus or minus 3.
I do think the situation heās in is being drastically overlooked because of his massive rookie year. Heās shown what heās capable of and I think people are going to assume he continues that trajectory.
This is the best QB harbaugh has had since Luck. And he threw the ball plenty with Andrew Luck. Harbaugh is a great coach and will make use of his players. The pushback on Herbert not being a great QB, and still good for fantasy, is missed place
Didn't mean this in terms of his dynasty value. I meant as far as a fantasy QB over the next few years. Hopefully he gets a new coaching staff one way or another in a few years.
Firmly believe heāll remain a top 10 option this year. Elite talent wins out, and itās the NFL, you need to pass (no matter how much they wanna run; look at the Lions) and you donāt avoid leveraging your best player in play calling unless youāre Arthur Smith.
I mean heās finished as qb14 in ppg 2 years in a row partially due to injuries but now the offense is significantly worse and they have a run first OC. I think the positive impact of Herbert getting healthy and the negative impact of his changing situation are about a wash and he should still finish somewhere between qb10-15 in ppg the next couple years. I donāt think he should be qb20 by any means but Iām also not buying him at his current price. I think heās a perfect buy low candidate in season though once the market reacts to his weekly performances.
Dynasty rankings arenāt as shortsighted as just looking at the upcoming years passing yards projections. Id rather have him over a bunch of the QBs ahead of him on that list because i think he is a better Quarterback. His short term situation makes him less appealing for next year, but that doesnāt make me value him less than a guy like tua just because he will likely score less than him next year.
You've taken a few leaps here to knock Herbert out of the top 20.
Who would you move him above? Baker? Stafford? Love?Purdy?
Literally all of them
Look forward to revisiting this at the end of the year.
Stafford and Baker easily yes.
If you just mean dynasty value, yes. For this coming season? I would not expect him to outperform either.
You're posting on the dynasty sub.
OP: š¤Æ
Even single season, a jump in efficiency in the new run heavy offence means he could still have good yardage and TD numbers in a better offence. He also has way more rushing upside than those guys as well. Under this coaching staff he could very well rush for 300-400 yards and 5 TDs
Iād have him above Baker for sure. Maybe Stafford too
3500 is the easiest over of your life lol. If he stays healthy itās just over 200 yards per game. People have lost their minds.Ā
He finished his worst last year, QB17, while missing 4 and a half games. If heās healthy, thereās no way he falls out of the top 20, even with his depleted WR group. I do agree however, that with this team heās most likely not top 10 this coming season.
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I just canāt get over this comment lol. Are you comparing the niners roster and coach to the chargers and just assuming Herbert will match Purdy? Who broke the league in efficiency? Youāve lost your mind.
Not a single snap has been played yet and its a foregone conclusion that Herbert has become the QB in the chargers new Army triple option offense. Ridiculous.
He's my qb1 and I'm rolling with him
Same. Rolling with him with confidence
Same. The guy was a top 5 qb each of his first 3 seasons.
Im actively trying to add mcconkey so i can have a connect
Same. I had 1.09 in rookie 12 team SF and the guy at 1.07 took him surprisingly leaving me with Bowers who I am not upset about but yes, Iād like Ladd as well
Im 1.6
And you want Ladd over Rome?
He's gone already. 1 qb league.
Ended up getting him at 1.6
Can we ban posts that try to link betting odds to real life? Holy shit Iām so sick of this type of posting. Vegas odds reflect public sentiment and public sentiment has no bearing on how athletes perform.
Ah yes, we all know that Vegas is almost always wrong.
People win absurd amounts of money of pro sports betting by taking advantage of bad lines. Vegas lines arenāt meant to be right, theyāre meant to take money off the casual better.
You mean the Vegas that had Will Levis going 1st overall in the draft last year? Vegas odds arenāt an exact science and they have other things baked in. Edit: Apparently I was spreading harmful misinformation. The odds of Will Levis going 1st overall and increased near the time of the draft but didnāt reach odds higher than Bryce Young. Iām sorry to all those I have hurt.
I think he means the Vegas that firmly had Bryce Young as the favorite to go 1st overall. Not sure which Vegas you're referring to. Edit: you blocked me so I can't actually respond but come on man, you left a sassy comment based around a faulty premise (again, Young's implied odds to go 1st stayed above 90% during the Levis chaos) and are acting personally attacked by me correcting you in the same tone.
Odds changed a lot throughout the process. Stroud was favored for a while to go 1st.
Vegas odds shifted within days of the draft to have Will Levis go 1st overall because of a fucking Reddit post claiming to be Levisā friend. If you want to clap back and say āOh yeah, well they fixed that and Bryce was the odds-on favorite the day of the draft when it mattered,ā then consider this guy is basing Herbertās performance off of Vegas odds in mf May.
Levis' odds to go 1st shortened to +500 at that time. Young didn't dip below like -1200
So what youāre saying is Vegas odds change and you shouldnāt take them as gospel? Got it.
I'm saying that "Vegas had Will Levis going 1st overall in the draft last year" is not remotely true
I know. Youāre being pedantic and ignoring the general point.
Calling someone pedantic for pointing out that your comment was literally untrue is an insane take
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Not true at all. Sportsbooks (especially sharper ones) will take sides if they think they have an edge
Okay, prove me wrong. Back test Vegas passing yards props from the pre season of any given year and let me know how many lines are within 50 yards of what that player actually threw. Also, how the hell are passing yard prop line a measure of fantasy relevance? What about touchdowns and rushing, never mind the fact that youāre looking at single season lines and posting about them in the dynasty sub.
This post is telling me it's time to buy Herbert
Havenāt played a game under the new coaching staff >> Herbert is trashed. The NFL is going to let Gus Edwards, bubble-wrapped JK Dobbins and Josh Kelly run them off the field every game? Top 15 guy while missing 4 games and playing through injury for 2 seasons. Signed a big extension and has a real coach now. Go ahead. Sell him for pennies. Iām buying.
Who said anything about selling for pennies? The OP is just saying he's overvalued. On KTC he was the QB7 at the end of the season, he's just dipped to QB9. I totally agree he's no longer a top10 asset, so if you can get QB9 valuation, it's an easy sell for me. I don't think he's down to QB20 as the OP says, but I'd prob have him in the QB15-17 range. I sold him based on his top10 valuation and couldn't be happier.
So youād take Daniels, Lawrence, Purdy, Maye, Prescott, Tua and McCarthy all over Herbert? Most of that is insane to me. Heās shown a higher ceiling than almost anyone in the league, and heās almost definitely gonna be a franchise QB for another decade. Ridiculous to dock him that far for his short term situation
I mean, Purdy, Trevor, and Dak all outscored him on PPG basis last year, and Tua wasn't far behind. Tua's numbers have been improving while Herbert's have been declining. And this is before Herbert lost his top 2 WRs, his top TE, and top RBs and got the Roman/Harbaugh offense. So, yeah, I'll rate them above him right now. I'd rank him above Maye since the NE situation is garbage, and prob even with Daniels and JJM. But if JJM has a decent showing and shows he could replicate what Cousins was doing in Year 2, I'd have him above Herbert too by the end of the year. If Daniels shows he can have a career similar to Kyler, he'd be above Herbert, too. Other than Dak, all the QBs are the same draft class or younger. And Dak should still have 5+ years of top QB play where I'm unconcerned about needing to replace him any time soon. Finally, 'short term situation' could easily be years. Harbaugh was at the Niners for 4, if he's winning he will have longevity. Roman offenses were top5 in rushing attempts and bottom10 in passing attempts, so Herbert will have to have insane efficiency just to be around QB15, which, to be fair, I think he can achieve. I think he'll end up being a better real life QB than for fantasy.
Last year when he was injured *and* both his top weapons were? Useful data pointā¦ The only active QBs whoāve outscored his ā21 season(his last healthy one) are Mahomes, Allen and Lamar once. His numbers have only been ādecliningā because he was injured in back to back years. Tuaās elevated by his weapons and scheme, Tyreek is only there for a couple more years. Herbertās weapon situation is temporary, and we donāt know what the scheme will look like. Harbaugh has never had a talent like Herbert, and he took the job *specifically because* he wanted to work with Herbert. You say youāll rate them above him right now, but thatās using redraft process to talk about dynasty rankings. Any of the rookies would sell their soul to have Herbertās production. The only one you mentioned who could match his ceiling is Daniels, only because of the rushing. Itās more likely they bust than hit their ceiling, until they prove they can hang in the league they have no business ranked above Herbert. Dakās a good-not-great QB who could find himself on a different team sooner than later. Once again, we donāt know how theyāll scheme with Herbert. The weapons are the short term issue, not the scheme. Their RBs are mid at best, and their QB is a top arm talent. Plus, Russ Wilson in Seattle was a top half QB1 for years with roughly 400-500 pass attempts yearly. People are insanely overreacting to scheme concerns.
Who said anything about selling for pennies? The OP is just saying he's overvalued. On KTC he was the QB7 at the end of the season, he's just dipped to QB9. I totally agree he's no longer a top10 asset, so if you can get QB9 valuation, it's an easy sell for me. I don't think he's down to QB20 as the OP says, but I'd prob have him in the QB15-17 range. I sold him based on his top10 valuation and couldn't be happier.
There's more to fantasy points than simply yards. Not to mention that just because they don't think he will lead the league doesn't mean they think he will have the 20th most. They could easily be confident he's going to have the fifth more yards but not expect him to lead the league A more accurate measurement would be checking each QBs over/under yardage and TD totals and ranking them each based on their own predictions
Will Levis has the exact same over/under yardage as Herbert. Carr is higher. You can see on that site. It might actually look worse going player by player over/under totals.
Herbert has better rushing upside than both of them, and their TD totals are more important than yardage totals. Like I said, there's more to fantasy points than passing yards.
22.5 TDs for Herbert isn't saving him. If they let him run in some TDs, that would be huge, but with Edwards and Dobbins, that's a big ask.
Dobbins? Seriously? Heās had two major knee injuries and a torn Achilles in 3 years. Youāre wild for this post.
Heās going to be fine. Heās a great QB and hopefully the WRās develop and they get this thing rolling by seasons end. This year might just be the new floor with this new coaching staff but the future is bright
If anything, the fact that he has top-15 odds with a WR room consisting of Josh Palmer, Quentin Johnston, and Ladd McConkey has me feeling all the better about him. Situations change faster than talent. Herbert has two seasons averaging 22+ PPG (his first two in the league) CJ Stroud is currently going as a top-5 startup pick after putting up 18.6.
I sold him for Love + 1.05 + 3.01 a couple months ago but still didnāt think it was a complete smash accept despite what the perceived values involved are (per KTC). I think youāre delusional to suggest herbert is anywhere outside the top 7-8 dynasty qbs (and he might be higher than that).
I sold Love + 1.04 for Herbert and 1.10 + 1.12 and Iām stoked.
I have Love>Herbert so to get additional assets on top is a huge win in my book. I sold Herbert in a package deal to get Daniels and feel great about it. I have no idea if Daniels will pay off but his ceiling is super high and I know once the season starts Herbert's value will plummet.
I've got him and A Rich in a 1QB league. I'm not worried about him at all.
Lmfao yeah right
Vegas doesnāt also factor in long term picture. Itās just a yearly/weekly thing. In no way would I ever take Geno or Carr over Herbert, even in redraft. So I wouldnāt take Vegas too seriously when regarding a young QB like Herbert
Your last comment is either blatantly false or you are betting on Harbaugh being a total idiot. Smart coaches use the talent they have. I donāt care what he did at Michigan. Herbert is, by a landslide, the best QB heās ever coached. Sure his volume will decrease but Iāll bet against him falling outside the top 20 all day. The fade has been beyond stupid. Iām happy to buy him from anyone fading him to this degree.
It is comically delusional to think that a healthy Herbert is out of the top 20(!) of fantasy qbs in any format, idgaf what the betting line says
Youāre going to get downvoted and I honeslty think you went too far, QB20 is fairly low. That saidā¦ waaayyy too many people are putting blinders on and not accepting that more than likely Herbert wonāt be a QB1 this year (top 12ish). His best receiving option is a rookie and itās pretty clear that their coach (and OC!) want to run the ball. I wouldnāt be rushing to sell him but if youāre a contender I think itās prudent to see if you can get a different QB at Herbertās value right now.
This exactly. I sold him and couldn't be more stoked. Sellers have a ~4 month window to get out before his value tanks.
Right, I mean Herbertās weapons are even worse than Mahomesā weapons last year and even he struggled.. Herbert owners seem to think heās better than Mahomes or something
16/21 for 189 yards week 1 and people are going to lose their minds.
lol the scale of people bailing on Herbert has gotten ridiculous. If you think a coaching staff that came to the team because of him, isnāt going to utilize him, youāre just shortsighted and ignorant.
Why I think top 20 is a bit extreme. I definitely see him in the 15 area, plus or minus 3. I do think the situation heās in is being drastically overlooked because of his massive rookie year. Heās shown what heās capable of and I think people are going to assume he continues that trajectory.
This is the best QB harbaugh has had since Luck. And he threw the ball plenty with Andrew Luck. Harbaugh is a great coach and will make use of his players. The pushback on Herbert not being a great QB, and still good for fantasy, is missed place
Good thing passing yards isnāt the only factor into determining fantasy points!
Don't look up his TD prop... maybe you think he's gonna rush for 1000 yards.
Heās absolutely a top 20 QB. Donāt conflate those betting projections with dynasty value.
Didn't mean this in terms of his dynasty value. I meant as far as a fantasy QB over the next few years. Hopefully he gets a new coaching staff one way or another in a few years.
Heās a top 10 QB, this year and in dynasty.
Firmly believe heāll remain a top 10 option this year. Elite talent wins out, and itās the NFL, you need to pass (no matter how much they wanna run; look at the Lions) and you donāt avoid leveraging your best player in play calling unless youāre Arthur Smith.
I mean heās finished as qb14 in ppg 2 years in a row partially due to injuries but now the offense is significantly worse and they have a run first OC. I think the positive impact of Herbert getting healthy and the negative impact of his changing situation are about a wash and he should still finish somewhere between qb10-15 in ppg the next couple years. I donāt think he should be qb20 by any means but Iām also not buying him at his current price. I think heās a perfect buy low candidate in season though once the market reacts to his weekly performances.
Dynasty rankings arenāt as shortsighted as just looking at the upcoming years passing yards projections. Id rather have him over a bunch of the QBs ahead of him on that list because i think he is a better Quarterback. His short term situation makes him less appealing for next year, but that doesnāt make me value him less than a guy like tua just because he will likely score less than him next year.
People are shitting on you but I just want to express my support for this opinionš¤š»
Appreciated. I'm never worried about downvotes. In fact, I'm much more likely to post an unpopular opinion. ā