It's mostly because of the time it takes to finally accrue the majority of the value back from that pick.
Trading a player for a 25 1st is more valuable than a 26 1st because you recoup that perceived value in less than a year. Your league could fold in two.
half the league is paid into 26 so i doubt it folds, but i see your perspective.
25 class is weak, im a rebuilding team with no chance at winning next 3 seasons, figured i’d load up on the cheaper capital (26).
Definitely worth it. I’ve been acquiring future capital at cheaper prices for a few years now. It’s how I traded Courtland Sutton for a really far away pick in 2024… that eventually became Malik Nabers.
It was right after Russ went to Denver.
It’s a viable strategy and it keeps you from loading up on one single draft class.
Extend this out and think about it. Why not start building draft capital in 2044 right now. Even if everyone is paid until then would you still do it? I’m sure that you would answer your own question
I mean, this is true in the NFL as well. It's absolutely an inefficiency in the market that anyone can take advantage of. It's an asset that is almost guaranteed to gain value over time.
I genuinely think they are valued less because it’s harder to predict what kind of pick it’ll be. If you acquire picks from a team that is clearly bad - you kind of know it’ll be an early first. The longer the time between the roster you see today and the year of the pick - the higher the volatility that the pick changes in value. If you trade with a bad team and they turn it around, you might have a late first instead of an early one. That’s important for trades - and it’s much easier to predict next year’s pick value than multiple years out.
Which, to be fair, can be helpful or harmful depending on where on the spectrum that team lies. If they are a team generally viewed as a “late 1st” team, then the volatility is more likely than not to be helpful
People want instant gratification, it’s that simple. Take advantage of it. They will overpay for those picks closer to 2026, in the same way they overpay for players at the trade deadline.
People will justify it in all sorts of ways, but in any league that isn't gonna fold, it's just a market inefficiency. Humans are impatient, and /r/DynastyFF in particular has overcorrected against perma-rebuilds and gone back too far towards a redraft mindset. If you can buy 26 picks more cheaply than 25 picks, you should do that every time
I played the patience angle in 2022 when I was tanking, and traded away for 2024 picks instead of 2023. It was simultaneously easier to get deals done and 3 of the firsts I had this draft were higher in the round than they would have been if I went for 2023 picks
If a team is definitely a strong contender for the current season might as well go a year later and see if they fall off
It's like investing in a locked CD for 1-2 years. Your ROI is pretty shit while it sits and waits. Sure, it goes up in value but not enough to make any sort of difference. Getting the pick now is like investing in a high dividend stock. Not only can the value increase significantly more but you also get dividend payouts in the form of weekly fantasy production.
You eventually have to make that pick or cash it in. Making the pick today gives you an extra year of production (dividend payout). Money/Value/production today is always more valuable than money/value/production in a year.
I've heard this comparison many times but it doesn't hold up. The reason that money today is more valuable than money tomorrow is that it earns interest; the sooner you have it, the sooner it starts building on itself and the faster it compounds. There's no meaningful expiration date for how long this can last.
Draft picks increase in value, but not in the same way that you earn interest. The value of the asset -- whether it's a pick or the player you took with it -- does have an expiration date and doesn't increase linearly over time. You don't gain more long-run value by having a pick a year earlier, you just increase the amount of value you have right now.
> Making the pick today gives you an extra year of production (dividend payout)
No, it doesn't, it just moves timeline of your value ahead by a year. You aren't gaining a year, you're just stealing it from the back half of a player's career production curve. There's nothing wrong with wanting to do this if it fits your team's timeline better, but having a pick now isn't somehow going to create more lifetime value for you than having a future pick.
You are missing the overall point of fantasy with this argument. The point of fantasy is to score fantasy points not to accrue value. An ideal goal would be to accrue value while scoring points. That's why I use a dividend stock as an example. A stock that pays you for owning it (fantasy production) while potentially increasing value (improving youth). At the end of the day you have to take a stand on that pick. A pick on it's own is just cash under your mattress or my original argument, a CD with an incredibly shit interest rate. You eventually have to turn it into a player that ages if you ever want to actually use that cash. The sooner you do the sooner you can actually win a fantasy game and if they are young and they hit then they can also accrue value at a much higher rate than a draft pick with a set level of value increase that scores zero points.
I’m really not. I play fantasy to win just like you, and you can maximize winning by playing the long game. Example: In 2020, I traded my 2020 first (1.10) for a 2021 first that I thought was likely to be early. The late first I traded became Cam Akers (as late firsts often do), while the 2021 first was the 1.3 and I got Jamarr Chase. That theoretical future value has turned into a lot of actual points in my lineup, and two titles.
I’m not advocating to trade back forever and never make picks. And if taking the sooner pick is really gonna make a huge difference for you in this year’s championship run then sure, make it now! But it’s usually not, and you can win a lot more fantasy games by showing a little patience.
>Example: In 2020, I traded...
Any 1 off example doesn't matter in any argument. Also if you can trade a late for an early late, that's an incredibly dumb comparison, obviously late vs early take the early. That's not what anyone has been talking about and none of this is relevant to any point I've made.
The point is there's a very real reason random 1st this year > random 1st next year. That's the point of OPs post and every statement I've made.
Nobody is arguing that a random 25 first is worth more than a random 24 first. The argument is that you can gain value by moving back a year, and you usually should. People give up random future firsts for late firsts in the current rookie draft all the time to take guys they like — sometimes those random firsts become early, and you profit. My example is just one example, you’re right, but it’s a replicable process that on average leads to better outcomes for your team.
>i view a 26 1st the same way i view a 25, especially considering the lack of talent in 25. what about you?
Literally OPs post. Everything else you are talking about is just moving the goal posts to try to salvage some aspect of the argument. It's over dude. Random this year > random next year. Literally all I'm saying. Literally all I care about.
You replied to my original comment with an argument about how draft picks increase in value like stocks. I thought that’s the conversation we were having, so I was laying out my case against that model. If I’d known that you just wanted to dig in your heels about OPs take and not engage with any of my points, then I wouldn’t have responded — my bad!
I think you could take this even further. You can capitalize on this by possibly getting a higher draft pick in a future draft where the volatility of that pick might put it closer to 1.01 when a pick this year is either known or pretty well estimated. I think that gets overlooked. We had a team obtain picks for this year’s draft from guys that were competing for the 2022 championship - those are now 1.02 and 1.03 whereas at the time they were valued as if the team would be a contender perpetually. I suppose it could go the other way but most bad teams aren’t trading future picks.
Also thanks for such a great reply - you nailed it
Money has a present value which is the same thing. You can use money today to earn things. Or you can invest it with interest. Money is more valuable today because inflation + we're all dying. $100 today in your 20s is worth more than $100 in 30 years.
The same applies to fantasy because first of all, the league could fold or you could die. You are healthy, your league is active, and you are playing fantasy this year, so make the most of it. But those are minor reasons. The real Present Value equivalent is due to the fact that you have a team, it has players, and on average they lose value every year unless your team is built to hold value. If you are 1 piece away from winning, and you think "wow I can trade my 1st for a 1st and 2nd this year", you are mostly just making your odds to win worse.
If you want to tank, and your team is young enough to maintain a lot of value, and your confident your league will last, and you want to maximize value. Then yes you should be trading today's picks for future picks and accumulating value. The downside is if you do it too well, the league will fold before you win your 2nd ship. Imo Present Value is real in fantasy, bottom line.
In our league u can only get a RB thru the draft or waivers (we haven’t had a RB involved in a trade in over 5 years) so 1st rounders are extremely valuable. I started trading for future 1sts (usually 2-3 years away) over a decade ago and now I never go into a rookie draft without multiple 1sts. It’s a great strat as long as u stuck with it and don’t trade em away
It's one less year of productive value, the player you draft with a 2025 pick is scoring points for you a year earlier/a year longer than the 2026 pick.
I understand picks have more insulated value of not taking a roster spot, and not really having the potential to go down in value, but if you look at it as players instead of picks it gives a pretty obvious perspective:
* Option A: I offer to trade you a player at a certain price, and you have him on your roster today, scoring points this coming season
* Option B: you pay the same price, now, but i'm not going to give you the player until next off-season
Don't you think those two options have different values? Not a perfect analogy, but a fair way of looking at why people value future capital less.
This isn’t totally accurate though - you’re not getting a player for a year longer, you’re just getting them a year earlier for their career. Your options don’t work because you’re implying the pick is aging when it isn’t. You’re still drafting a kid out of college either way. It’s really about timing your competitive window.. I do, however, think there’s volatility in future picks because it’s difficult to predict how good the team you’re acquiring from will be that year. I personally think that’s why they’re valued lower - because an early 1st next year is somewhat assumed based on a roster. An early first two or three years from now is a bit more of a gamble.
That's a very valid point, i did say it wasn't a perfect analogy! thanks for pointing this out though, it definitely needs to be factored in to the concept of the values.
I do still think there is value added with the possibility of immediate production vs future though. And if you are a frequent trader, re-rolling that drafted player before he has zero value, then it could feasibly be looked at as getting an additional year out of the pick.
Agreed also on the volatility issue, we also have a better idea of the quality a player is in next years draft vs the year after. the later pick *could* be better, it's just more of a mystery, there will always be a higher value to something more known.
Not to mention the fact that the player you draft in 2024 has a chance to multiply in value. That future pick will SLOWLY increase in value, but drafting cj stroud, Josh allen, any 1st round caliber player, your picks value will explode
I (or anyone) might be dead by the time the future pick rolls around. Just by virtue of that it loses a bit of value. Current picks are worth more because you don’t have to wait.
In my experience I dont actually really get a discount on trades for future picks. In some cases I've had people ask for the far out pick because they're stable stores of value that don't take up a roster spot.
Because you have to wait a year or two to realize their true value and I'm almost always trying to win now
That pick could be early but it just as easily could be late if things break right for that team
The class could be really good or it could end up being trash with few first round fantasy players
I like trading for 1st that are a year or two out. Everyone has a plan to be good by 2026. That is not going to work out for some teams and you could have their pick for pretty cheap if they think they will be great
If you’re playing in a random league you found on reddit or sleeper, you never know when it’s going to fold. Thats the biggest reason for me. Second would be it’s hard to determine where that pick is going to fall in the draft.
Mainly because people want the shiny new rookie now.
I love future picks, not because I can make picks next year, but because I can use them to pickup cheaper vets mid season when some team decides they’re out of playoff hunt
1. Current players earn points for you today, points are how you win.
2. The value of picks always go up pretty steadily, people are trying to beat the market with "sleepers" that jump in value.
3. League might not exist at some point in the future, giving up a year of production isn't much if the player might be on your team for 10 years, it's kind of a lot if the league isn't going to exist in 3 years. Having a great young team in a non existent league is worth zero.
>Assets that you have today can begin earning a positive rate of return today
Is that not part of Time Value of Money?
Genuine question. I am not schooled in this topic but that's always what I've associated with it.
In finance it’s very easy to invest your money in an index fund or savings account, so 100 dollars you invest today really will be 125 dollars next year. But draft picks don’t work like that. A 1st round pick now is not inherently better than a 1st round pick later if you are looking at a long time horizon. The value of the player you draft now will go up or down based off how well they perform. The asset could gain value but it could also lose value (like Quentin Johnston from last year 😭).
I get that but when you pick a player you shouldn't be expecting them to go down. Why would you choose an asset when your expectation of their value would go down? Choose another asset then that you think will ascend in value and/or maneuver to make that situation happen.
Essentially you are just saying always pick the right lottery ticket. It’s more like gambling as opposed to the time value of money. Draft picks are relatively insulated value but players values will fluctuate a lot. But if you can consistently pick players with appreciating values then your theory is correct. I guess we just have different philosophies and approaches to fantasy.
First… players can score points so that can help you win a championship. That fundamentally has value.
Second… player can go up, down, or stay the same in value. Especially for a first or 2nd round fantasy pick, it’s usually pretty easy to recoup most of the value even if they faceplant. I drafted mims at 2.11 last year and was able to trade him this offseason for a 2026 2nd even though he did barely anything. JSN also disappointed and maintained value. The QJ situation was an anomaly because of how bad he was and how much opportunity he had with a great QB. This also on average gives the player more value than the future pick.
Third… picks normally lose value early in the season. Everyone is competing and they’re more likely to overpay future picks for a rookie who has one good game. It’s not until later in the season when people start to rebuild and look into next year. This gives the players more value as well. There is normally a value cycle with picks where they peak right before the draft.
That would be my general explanation of why future picks are worth less than rookies drafted in the same spot.
Assets that you have today can begin earning a positive rate of return today
It's mostly because of the time it takes to finally accrue the majority of the value back from that pick. Trading a player for a 25 1st is more valuable than a 26 1st because you recoup that perceived value in less than a year. Your league could fold in two.
half the league is paid into 26 so i doubt it folds, but i see your perspective. 25 class is weak, im a rebuilding team with no chance at winning next 3 seasons, figured i’d load up on the cheaper capital (26).
Definitely worth it. I’ve been acquiring future capital at cheaper prices for a few years now. It’s how I traded Courtland Sutton for a really far away pick in 2024… that eventually became Malik Nabers. It was right after Russ went to Denver. It’s a viable strategy and it keeps you from loading up on one single draft class.
Extend this out and think about it. Why not start building draft capital in 2044 right now. Even if everyone is paid until then would you still do it? I’m sure that you would answer your own question
I mean, this is true in the NFL as well. It's absolutely an inefficiency in the market that anyone can take advantage of. It's an asset that is almost guaranteed to gain value over time.
I genuinely think they are valued less because it’s harder to predict what kind of pick it’ll be. If you acquire picks from a team that is clearly bad - you kind of know it’ll be an early first. The longer the time between the roster you see today and the year of the pick - the higher the volatility that the pick changes in value. If you trade with a bad team and they turn it around, you might have a late first instead of an early one. That’s important for trades - and it’s much easier to predict next year’s pick value than multiple years out.
Which, to be fair, can be helpful or harmful depending on where on the spectrum that team lies. If they are a team generally viewed as a “late 1st” team, then the volatility is more likely than not to be helpful
People want instant gratification, it’s that simple. Take advantage of it. They will overpay for those picks closer to 2026, in the same way they overpay for players at the trade deadline.
just traded penix for a future mid-late 26. ez.
In SF I'm assuming? That first is two years away. An odd deal
ye
starting a massive orphan rebuild, team has no chance of contending next 2-4 seasons. prioritizing 26 picks over 25. already acquired 3 of em.
Oh well that makes more sense. I bet you could have gotten more though
agreed. he smash accepted it 😭
😂
penix was 2.08
People will justify it in all sorts of ways, but in any league that isn't gonna fold, it's just a market inefficiency. Humans are impatient, and /r/DynastyFF in particular has overcorrected against perma-rebuilds and gone back too far towards a redraft mindset. If you can buy 26 picks more cheaply than 25 picks, you should do that every time
I played the patience angle in 2022 when I was tanking, and traded away for 2024 picks instead of 2023. It was simultaneously easier to get deals done and 3 of the firsts I had this draft were higher in the round than they would have been if I went for 2023 picks If a team is definitely a strong contender for the current season might as well go a year later and see if they fall off
It's like investing in a locked CD for 1-2 years. Your ROI is pretty shit while it sits and waits. Sure, it goes up in value but not enough to make any sort of difference. Getting the pick now is like investing in a high dividend stock. Not only can the value increase significantly more but you also get dividend payouts in the form of weekly fantasy production. You eventually have to make that pick or cash it in. Making the pick today gives you an extra year of production (dividend payout). Money/Value/production today is always more valuable than money/value/production in a year.
I've heard this comparison many times but it doesn't hold up. The reason that money today is more valuable than money tomorrow is that it earns interest; the sooner you have it, the sooner it starts building on itself and the faster it compounds. There's no meaningful expiration date for how long this can last. Draft picks increase in value, but not in the same way that you earn interest. The value of the asset -- whether it's a pick or the player you took with it -- does have an expiration date and doesn't increase linearly over time. You don't gain more long-run value by having a pick a year earlier, you just increase the amount of value you have right now. > Making the pick today gives you an extra year of production (dividend payout) No, it doesn't, it just moves timeline of your value ahead by a year. You aren't gaining a year, you're just stealing it from the back half of a player's career production curve. There's nothing wrong with wanting to do this if it fits your team's timeline better, but having a pick now isn't somehow going to create more lifetime value for you than having a future pick.
You are missing the overall point of fantasy with this argument. The point of fantasy is to score fantasy points not to accrue value. An ideal goal would be to accrue value while scoring points. That's why I use a dividend stock as an example. A stock that pays you for owning it (fantasy production) while potentially increasing value (improving youth). At the end of the day you have to take a stand on that pick. A pick on it's own is just cash under your mattress or my original argument, a CD with an incredibly shit interest rate. You eventually have to turn it into a player that ages if you ever want to actually use that cash. The sooner you do the sooner you can actually win a fantasy game and if they are young and they hit then they can also accrue value at a much higher rate than a draft pick with a set level of value increase that scores zero points.
I’m really not. I play fantasy to win just like you, and you can maximize winning by playing the long game. Example: In 2020, I traded my 2020 first (1.10) for a 2021 first that I thought was likely to be early. The late first I traded became Cam Akers (as late firsts often do), while the 2021 first was the 1.3 and I got Jamarr Chase. That theoretical future value has turned into a lot of actual points in my lineup, and two titles. I’m not advocating to trade back forever and never make picks. And if taking the sooner pick is really gonna make a huge difference for you in this year’s championship run then sure, make it now! But it’s usually not, and you can win a lot more fantasy games by showing a little patience.
>Example: In 2020, I traded... Any 1 off example doesn't matter in any argument. Also if you can trade a late for an early late, that's an incredibly dumb comparison, obviously late vs early take the early. That's not what anyone has been talking about and none of this is relevant to any point I've made. The point is there's a very real reason random 1st this year > random 1st next year. That's the point of OPs post and every statement I've made.
Nobody is arguing that a random 25 first is worth more than a random 24 first. The argument is that you can gain value by moving back a year, and you usually should. People give up random future firsts for late firsts in the current rookie draft all the time to take guys they like — sometimes those random firsts become early, and you profit. My example is just one example, you’re right, but it’s a replicable process that on average leads to better outcomes for your team.
>i view a 26 1st the same way i view a 25, especially considering the lack of talent in 25. what about you? Literally OPs post. Everything else you are talking about is just moving the goal posts to try to salvage some aspect of the argument. It's over dude. Random this year > random next year. Literally all I'm saying. Literally all I care about.
You replied to my original comment with an argument about how draft picks increase in value like stocks. I thought that’s the conversation we were having, so I was laying out my case against that model. If I’d known that you just wanted to dig in your heels about OPs take and not engage with any of my points, then I wouldn’t have responded — my bad!
I think you could take this even further. You can capitalize on this by possibly getting a higher draft pick in a future draft where the volatility of that pick might put it closer to 1.01 when a pick this year is either known or pretty well estimated. I think that gets overlooked. We had a team obtain picks for this year’s draft from guys that were competing for the 2022 championship - those are now 1.02 and 1.03 whereas at the time they were valued as if the team would be a contender perpetually. I suppose it could go the other way but most bad teams aren’t trading future picks. Also thanks for such a great reply - you nailed it
Money has a present value which is the same thing. You can use money today to earn things. Or you can invest it with interest. Money is more valuable today because inflation + we're all dying. $100 today in your 20s is worth more than $100 in 30 years. The same applies to fantasy because first of all, the league could fold or you could die. You are healthy, your league is active, and you are playing fantasy this year, so make the most of it. But those are minor reasons. The real Present Value equivalent is due to the fact that you have a team, it has players, and on average they lose value every year unless your team is built to hold value. If you are 1 piece away from winning, and you think "wow I can trade my 1st for a 1st and 2nd this year", you are mostly just making your odds to win worse. If you want to tank, and your team is young enough to maintain a lot of value, and your confident your league will last, and you want to maximize value. Then yes you should be trading today's picks for future picks and accumulating value. The downside is if you do it too well, the league will fold before you win your 2nd ship. Imo Present Value is real in fantasy, bottom line.
In our league u can only get a RB thru the draft or waivers (we haven’t had a RB involved in a trade in over 5 years) so 1st rounders are extremely valuable. I started trading for future 1sts (usually 2-3 years away) over a decade ago and now I never go into a rookie draft without multiple 1sts. It’s a great strat as long as u stuck with it and don’t trade em away
It's one less year of productive value, the player you draft with a 2025 pick is scoring points for you a year earlier/a year longer than the 2026 pick. I understand picks have more insulated value of not taking a roster spot, and not really having the potential to go down in value, but if you look at it as players instead of picks it gives a pretty obvious perspective: * Option A: I offer to trade you a player at a certain price, and you have him on your roster today, scoring points this coming season * Option B: you pay the same price, now, but i'm not going to give you the player until next off-season Don't you think those two options have different values? Not a perfect analogy, but a fair way of looking at why people value future capital less.
This isn’t totally accurate though - you’re not getting a player for a year longer, you’re just getting them a year earlier for their career. Your options don’t work because you’re implying the pick is aging when it isn’t. You’re still drafting a kid out of college either way. It’s really about timing your competitive window.. I do, however, think there’s volatility in future picks because it’s difficult to predict how good the team you’re acquiring from will be that year. I personally think that’s why they’re valued lower - because an early 1st next year is somewhat assumed based on a roster. An early first two or three years from now is a bit more of a gamble.
That's a very valid point, i did say it wasn't a perfect analogy! thanks for pointing this out though, it definitely needs to be factored in to the concept of the values. I do still think there is value added with the possibility of immediate production vs future though. And if you are a frequent trader, re-rolling that drafted player before he has zero value, then it could feasibly be looked at as getting an additional year out of the pick. Agreed also on the volatility issue, we also have a better idea of the quality a player is in next years draft vs the year after. the later pick *could* be better, it's just more of a mystery, there will always be a higher value to something more known.
Not to mention the fact that the player you draft in 2024 has a chance to multiply in value. That future pick will SLOWLY increase in value, but drafting cj stroud, Josh allen, any 1st round caliber player, your picks value will explode
I (or anyone) might be dead by the time the future pick rolls around. Just by virtue of that it loses a bit of value. Current picks are worth more because you don’t have to wait.
In my experience I dont actually really get a discount on trades for future picks. In some cases I've had people ask for the far out pick because they're stable stores of value that don't take up a roster spot.
Because you have to wait a year or two to realize their true value and I'm almost always trying to win now That pick could be early but it just as easily could be late if things break right for that team The class could be really good or it could end up being trash with few first round fantasy players
Because people want to win NOW
I like trading for 1st that are a year or two out. Everyone has a plan to be good by 2026. That is not going to work out for some teams and you could have their pick for pretty cheap if they think they will be great
Because future draft picks don't get you points as soon as earlier ones
J G Wentworth here. They’re my players and I want them now.
A few people in my league use the phrase “2nd round draft picks are useless” lol
People are gonna bash it but if your patient it’s a solid strategy, picks 2-3 years out are usually discounted a fair amount
just traded penix (2.08) for one. crazy value.
Time value of money
If you’re playing in a random league you found on reddit or sleeper, you never know when it’s going to fold. Thats the biggest reason for me. Second would be it’s hard to determine where that pick is going to fall in the draft.
Mainly because people want the shiny new rookie now. I love future picks, not because I can make picks next year, but because I can use them to pickup cheaper vets mid season when some team decides they’re out of playoff hunt
Because people have no patience. Even though they are the safest assets (can't get injured), and can only appreciate in value.
1. Current players earn points for you today, points are how you win. 2. The value of picks always go up pretty steadily, people are trying to beat the market with "sleepers" that jump in value. 3. League might not exist at some point in the future, giving up a year of production isn't much if the player might be on your team for 10 years, it's kind of a lot if the league isn't going to exist in 3 years. Having a great young team in a non existent league is worth zero.
[Time Value of Money ](https://youtu.be/733mgqrzNKs?si=_bKKgwCl4MMWwAEa)
I really dont think the time value of money applies to draft picks
>Assets that you have today can begin earning a positive rate of return today Is that not part of Time Value of Money? Genuine question. I am not schooled in this topic but that's always what I've associated with it.
In finance it’s very easy to invest your money in an index fund or savings account, so 100 dollars you invest today really will be 125 dollars next year. But draft picks don’t work like that. A 1st round pick now is not inherently better than a 1st round pick later if you are looking at a long time horizon. The value of the player you draft now will go up or down based off how well they perform. The asset could gain value but it could also lose value (like Quentin Johnston from last year 😭).
I get that but when you pick a player you shouldn't be expecting them to go down. Why would you choose an asset when your expectation of their value would go down? Choose another asset then that you think will ascend in value and/or maneuver to make that situation happen.
Essentially you are just saying always pick the right lottery ticket. It’s more like gambling as opposed to the time value of money. Draft picks are relatively insulated value but players values will fluctuate a lot. But if you can consistently pick players with appreciating values then your theory is correct. I guess we just have different philosophies and approaches to fantasy.
Appreciate you taking the time to explain it some more my man
Time value of money
Bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush
Because you have to wait another year for it to be realized meanwhile the rest of your assets are getting older….
First… players can score points so that can help you win a championship. That fundamentally has value. Second… player can go up, down, or stay the same in value. Especially for a first or 2nd round fantasy pick, it’s usually pretty easy to recoup most of the value even if they faceplant. I drafted mims at 2.11 last year and was able to trade him this offseason for a 2026 2nd even though he did barely anything. JSN also disappointed and maintained value. The QJ situation was an anomaly because of how bad he was and how much opportunity he had with a great QB. This also on average gives the player more value than the future pick. Third… picks normally lose value early in the season. Everyone is competing and they’re more likely to overpay future picks for a rookie who has one good game. It’s not until later in the season when people start to rebuild and look into next year. This gives the players more value as well. There is normally a value cycle with picks where they peak right before the draft. That would be my general explanation of why future picks are worth less than rookies drafted in the same spot.