this mentality got me Zay Flowers last year in the mid 2nd. NFL scouts know hilariously more than anyone on this sub no matter how many leagues they got Puka in
And none of us took Puka with a top 5 pick, which means we all got unfathomably lucky with his production. We all got him because we liked him more than the other 3rd round dart throws that were available.
Spencer might actually be the Puka in this draft: cool name, low cost, might get an opportunity to shine in Y1.
I wouldn’t bet on it, but it is possible.
To me, the problem with Polk is that there's nothing to love.
His college production analytical profile is bad. His athleticism also isn't that great. RAS is decent, but his 40-time is mediocre, and statistically the 40 time matters way more for WRs than the other drills (see below.) There's also the fact that for most of his career, he was perceived as worse than McMillan, who was drafted way later.
Draft Capital matters, but to me, seems like draft capital is the only thing going for Polk.
https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/p/scouting-combine-drills-that-matter-674
Yeah for sure I too think John Ross, marquise Godwin, Henry Ruggs, Jacoby ford, JJ Nelson, and Tyquan Thornton were true WR1’s that really show how much 40 times matter for WR’s
This was my thought too. He wasnt even the best receiver on his team until the WR1 went down and they had to throw to him.
I'm not even worried about stats and analytics, 40 times or any of that shit. He was just a worse WR that was thrust into the spotlight.
Like Tee Higgins when Chase missed 4 games.
It’s an odds game. If you follow the process of 1st rounder > day 3 I think you’ll come out ahead in the long run.
The last day 3 guy prior to ARSB who got steamed way up was Hakeem Butler, and he’s playing UFL right now. But if anyone out there has a consistent track record of sharp shooting day 3 WRs over 1st rounders over a sizable sample, they should keep doing so. I personally don’t believe I can succeed at that, and I’d bet anyone who does without the track record to prove it is fooling themselves
(I do think it’s fine to take an early 2nd guy with a better profile over Legette though)
There were also plenty of opportunities to get out with a profit on Toney. Drafting him was a fine outcome if managed well
I think you should probably heed whatever reservation you have pulling the trigger on that. But who knows, there’s a lot of unpredictability over a sample size of 1. If you only have a team or 2, I can understand getting your guys over optimizing process
I mean I’m the classic guy who feels like he’s the best at this, but I feel like I’m always right with receivers. Last year for example I reached on Dell in my main league (but tbf the only receivers I skipped there were Mims, Hyatt, and Reed). Anyways I made a point of drafting Dell everywhere, which I could because he was cheap. This year in 1QB I have the 2.01, 2.06, and 2.08. I was thinking Franklin Wilson for 2.06 and 2.08, but I might have to reach to guarantee
Ok, but we're playing percentages. You can't identify the ASRBs of the world over the 90% of day 3 WRs that bust.
Legette has lots of flaws, but you're getting a 1st round WR in the back half of round 2. The risk is priced in.
The thing is: These are really one in the same, which is what gives me more confidence in Legette.
He has terrible career YPRR because he had such a late breakout age. He's not like a Coleman where even in his "good" seasons, he had terrible YPRR. He had an amazing YPRR in 2023.
The thing about Legette is: The negatives are clearly priced in. If Legette didn't have those flaws and he'd performed his whole college career like 2023, he'd be a top 10 pick, competitive with Odunze. Compare that to a guy like Pearsall who has very similar flaws, if Pearsall performed his whole college career like 2023, would he vault way up? Probably not, he'd probably be priced about the same. So the flaws are being priced in for Legette, not Pearsall.
I’d take him before Legette. I like him well enough, good route running, good efficiency metrics, good athlete. I do think people are getting somewhat overexcited with the year 1 projections based on “who else can Herbert possibly throw to” but ultimately I think he’ll succeed
I just saw the guy’s a Charger fan and wondered his thoughts on Ladd homey, because I respect his take on going WR back half of round 2. Gimme a break lol
Who know’s man. The Chargers are super intriguing for the coming season with all their change, and Im pumped to see it. And there’s so many catches and yards to replace in the offense for you all.
Every day 2 - 3 WR besides McConkey, Coleman, and maaaybe Polk. Every RB besides Brooks and maaaaybe Benson. Every TE but Bowers and maaaaaaybe Sinnott in TEP
Great post, only pushback I'd give is on Polk. Polk is a good athlete with an 8.85 RAS. That is higher than GW and Olave, JSN, CeeDee Lamb, AJB, and many other great receivers and prospects alike
Polk also shared the field with Odunze and McMillan for multiple years.
Regardless though, it's ridiculous to get a 1st round WR in the mid to late 2nd.
This doesn’t mean what you think it does. There are 26 wide receivers in this 2024 draft class alone with a higher RAS score than Polk…
Edit: and Legette is 4th in this class with 9.90 lol
RAS means nothing.. last year proved it. Rice was 10th, JSN 41st, Flowers 42nd, Addison 105th, Dell 109th, Puka 124th lol. Top 5 in 23' was Ford-Wheaton, Iosivas, Mingo, Landers, Dowell. I like Polk btw so this isn't directed at him. RAS is only really useful for how athletic a guy is but doesn't confirm projected success at all.
I think what you mean to say is that athleticism isn't a huge factor in WR success. RAS does a great job at what it's measuring. Wide receiver is simply more than how big you are and how fast you can run in a straight line. Polk is an example of that
RAS doesn't really do a great job of what it's measuring, though. It makes no attempt to account for importance of the various factors and plays poorly with extremes. It's pretty much the most naive attempt possible to create an athleticism metric from combine data.
Jelani Woods ran a 4.61 at 253 pounds. Kyle Pitts ran a 4.44 at 245 pounds. RAS considers those 8 pounds more important to athleticism score than the 0.17 seconds on the 40. I certainly don't agree.
If Xavier Worthy had run a sub 4 second 40 instead of a 4.21, he still wouldn't be top 10 in the class at RAS. If he'd also benched and put up 10 reps of 225, he'd be considered less athletic than Polk.
Height plays a big part in the score but arm length doesn't factor in at all, for some reason.
The arm length part I agree with. It should be evaluated somehow because it matters
Worthy is 165 pounds, so yeah as an athlete in totality he's pretty one dimensional. RAS is accurately reflecting that, he's ass at everything but speed and explosion and yet he's a 9.41
With TEs I reckon you're too focused on fantasy with that take because you don't need speed to block, but yeah unicorn receiving TEs don't fit neatly into the statistics for the position. That's what makes them unicorns. If you want to see how he fares against receivers he's a 9.38 for that position. He's elite as shit in both. As for Jelani, it's the agility drills not the weight
Edit: I apologize if this sounds overly combative.... I just *hate* the approach RAS takes to quantifying athleticism
>Worthy is 165 pounds, so yeah as an athlete in totality he's pretty one dimensional. RAS is accurately reflecting that, he's ass at everything but speed and explosion and yet he's a 9.41
Shouldn't him running faster than he did increase his athleticism score though? Like if he's the fastest man on the planet at 165lbs he's still not as athletic as Luke McCaffrey?
>With TEs I reckon you're too focused on fantasy with that take, but yeah unicorn receiving TEs don't fit neatly into the statistics for the position. That's what makes them unicorns. If you want to see how he fares against receivers he's a 9.38 for that position. He's elite as shit in both. As for Jelani, it's the agility drills not the weight
You really think if Pitts gained 8 pounds at the expense of running a 4.61, that should give him a higher athleticism score? There's a lot of TEs who are ~250 pounds so those 8 pounds take you from like 30th percentile to 65th. But 4.61 is already 93rd percentile so bumping it up to the 99th percentile 4.44 doesn't get you muxh if a RAS boost.
.
Or, hell, look at Polk's 40 time. There were 4 receivers slower than him and 24 receivers faster than him at the combine this year, and he gets a 6.89 for that. I'm with you that speed is overrated for receivers, but he's being inflated here because he's faster than almost everyone who ran the 40 in the mid-late 90s.
>Shouldn't him running faster than he did increase his athleticism score though? Like if he's the fastest man on the planet at 165lbs he's still not as athletic as Luke McCaffrey?
Correct, McCaffrey ran a good 40 and has elite agility while being 30 pounds heavier. Remember how hyped everyone was about JSN's agility? It's close to that. Worthy didn't even do agility drills
Maybe a better way to put this is... I'm way more impressed when a guy like BTJ runs a 4.33 at 209 pounds than I am a guy running 4.21 at 165. In practical terms, the big guy is still really freaking fast while being better for everything else a receiver needs to do because he has size
>You really think if Pitts gained 8 pounds at the expense of running a 4.61, that should give him a higher athleticism score? There's a lot of TEs who are ~250 pounds so those 8 pounds take you from like 30th percentile to 65th. But 4.61 is already 93rd percentile so bumping it up to the 99th percentile 4.44 doesn't get you muxh if a RAS boost.
I know you just agreed about it being overrated but I'm still sensing that all you care about is speed lol. Again, Jelani had pretty insane agility drills for being 6'7" 250. He ran a 6.95 3 cone. Pitts ran a 7.12. Pitts had decent agility times, but that's what hurt his RAS comparatively
>Or, hell, look at Polk's 40 time. There were 4 receivers slower than him and 24 receivers faster than him at the combine this year, and he gets a 6.89 for that. I'm with you that speed is overrated for receivers, but he's being inflated here because he's faster than almost everyone who ran the 40 in the mid-late 90s.
From Jerry Rice to DeAndre Hopkins to Davante Adams to Puka Nacua, you've never needed speed to win as a receiver. That and 40 times can be deceiving since some of these guys are faster on a football field than their times would indicate
How can it not mean what I think it does? On a scale of 1 to 10, in the history of the NFL since 1987, that 8.85/10 says Polk is athletic. More athletic than all of the guys I just listed and 88.5% of all receivers since 1987 to enter the NFL. OP is wrong to say he isn't. These are facts.
Yes this wide receiver class is historically athletic. What does that have to do with whether a singular guy is athletic? And why does a fellow rookie being more athletic make someone a mediocre (ie below average) athlete? It doesn't.
Not to mention, athleticism doesn't actually correlate very well to positional success, so it's not a great argument to begin with. I was literally just pushing back on the claim that Polk isn't a good athlete. He is.
I think RAS the past few years has gotten less reliable since now players will refuse to test on any metrics they're not top tier in. If a guy is going to suck on 3 cone he just doesn't do it, and he doesn't get dinged on RAS.
Size/weight also factor in too heavily.
Polk to me looks like a good not great NFL athlete who is better than the sum of his parts.
While I agree about the drill skipping and how it inflates scores, one thing we should keep in mind is that speed is the most overrated trait when it comes to evaluating athletic ability as well as player ceiling for their position.
Lots of people say Polk is a mediocre athlete because he ran a 4.52 40 yard dash, which is a bigger mistake than using RAS despite its own flaws
i tend to bin RAS as a consideration if someone has an incomplete RAS profile, especially if they didnt run in just one or two of the categories; means its more likely they're just dodging their bad categories.
Yeah, I think this is essentially what I'm getting at.
My point was that for all of these guys: You have to ask "why will a player who wasn't elite in college be good against way better competition?" For all three of Pearsall, Legette and Mitchell, you can say "they have elite athleticism that you can't teach, so maybe they could make the next step." Polk does not have that. He's not a bad athlete, his athleticism is sufficient for the NFL, but it's not so great that you can say "he wasn't amazing in college, but he'll be great in the NFL because he's such a great athlete and can take the next step."
Wilson, olave, JSN and CeeDee all had amazing college production.
Polk's 69/1159/9 season is better than anything GW or Olave ever put up. GW is close if you care about 1 extra reception and 3 more TDs over 150ish yards, but Olave had zero 1000 yard college seasons
Polk put up more raw numbers because he played 15 games, whereas in Olave's senior year he had more YPG. I typically look at YPRR for this reason to avoid comparing apples to oranges. Olave had an extremely impressive 3.33 his junior year and a very good, but not great 2.29 YPRR his senior year. Polk's senior year high watermark was the same as Olave's: 2.29, but his career was well below Polk's.
Olave had I am a Patriots fan, so I'd love for Polk to dominate in the NFL. I'm also not super low on Polk compared to ADP, but I'm not extremely bullish on his profile. He's a very justifiable pick in the late second, but I'm not drafting a ton of him.
Back in like January, Before I looked into the stats, I was just looking at film. I immediately said "I think Leggette will be the 4th receiver off the board.".(Obviously that was wrong.) He fell off a bit after I looked at his stats. But I see very few red flags in his film, they're all in the stats.
I ended up getting him at 2.09 and I feel like I got an absolute steal.
I’ve been screaming from the roof tops about Legette. I think he has some rawness to his game so I don’t expect 1K his first year with DJ and Thielen still around. However, I do expect 5-6 touches a game to start.
No 2nd round (dynasty) prospect has the upside that Legette does and all of them have the same risk or worse.
Legette and Polk fell to 3.01 and 3.03 in my 12 Team SF. Made a trade earlier where I went from 1.07 to 1.04 for Nabers, sold 2.07, and got 3.03 and a 3rd next year. Felt like amazing value both on the trade and my pick at 3.03 with Polk.
My issue with saying Legette dominated was how much he smacked mid majors and lower class defenses. He dominated some of the worst teams and defenses in CFB and was more fine against legitimate defenses.
Even if it wasn't the mid majors, he could have been Kevin White and it's still a scary profile.
For those that don't remember, Kevin put up 9/150/1 against Alabama and then followed that up by smacking every single Big 12 team for between 130-220 yards and at least 1 touchdown.
I think the difference here is cost. The NFL and fantasy players have gotten a lot smarter. Legette and White do have similar profiles, but White went 1.07 overall, and while I don't know where rookie ADPs went back then, I assume White was at the top of the first round.
The NFL has gotten smarter, which is why Legette went 1.32 instead of 1.07, as if you just looked at senior year YPRR + athleticism, Legette would be a top 10 pick. Dynasty players are discounting him even further to the point where you can get a R1 WR in the mid 2nd.
Yeah, I didn't mention that, but I do agree that's a very real concern. It is a small sample size though, and I don't think it moves the needle at the opportunity cost.
It's definitely something that prevents me from getting *too* high on Legette though. I'd never take him above a McConkey, and I'd probably take Coleman over him simply because the situation is so good, even though I like Legette's profile better. But vs. Pearsall, Polk, Mitchell, it doesn't matter as much to me.
Sorta, but a team can also get away with not using those players often in those games and might do things like managing reps. To be clear, I don't think it's a bad thing that he did well against the worse competition. I think it's a bad thing he didn't show more in the bigger games. That's what makes me hesitate to crown the 2023 production.
He's also the youngest and most gifted (not best, just talking about his size/speed combo) WR on a team that needs his exact skillset. I like the vision Canales described for Legette and I am a believer in Bryce Young, so I'm with you. Had the change to grab Legs at 2.01 in my 14T league rookie draft and I didn't look back.
>He's also the youngest and most gifted (not best, just talking about his size/speed combo) WR on a team that needs his exact skillset
For what it's worth, he's actually older than and more or less identically athletic as Mingo. Not that it should sway anyone, given the Panthers canned Fitterer this off-season, but it's not as black-and-white as the team needing an athletic receiver and picking the best option.
Peak year YPRR (with min constraints) means something.
May not mean everything, but it means something.
I'm not sure where Legette's ADP is right now but if it's something like early 3rd in 12 team superflex then I'm grabbing all the shares.
But too much before that I'm probably taking swings on riskier draft capital with better production profiles, or there is a high degree of likelihood a flatly better player is available.
> I'm not sure where Legette's ADP is right now but if it's something like early 3rd in 12 team superflex then I'm grabbing all the shares.
I've seen him go 3.1 as drafts go on because people are reaching for RBs like Vidal, Lloyd, and Wright earlier in the 2nd than they should be going.
Vidal is an overdraft.
Lloyd is still a third round pick and fits an open role in that GB offense that has been quite productive historically. Jacobs is still the lead back and should suck all the air out of that room, but Lloyd projects as an excellent handcuff.
Wright, Miami didn't have a third round pick, and traded their '25 3rd round pick for. I have no problem Wright over Legette as a high upside handcuff pick.
Career YPRR is *far* more predictive for WRs. Almost to the point that peak year YPRR is irrelevant. Legette took 5 years to dominate against bad teams and had a few plays where he got a ton of YAC. Catching a hitch and running to the endzone against a bad team with not great DBs isn't impressive. Final year production is much more predictive for RBs than for WRs
I never said it wasn't more predictive, I also didn't say anything about final year YPRR, I explicitly said peak year YPRR (w/ appropriate min threshold)
But it also has the bonus effect of helping tease out sleepers.
You don't want to be drafting sleepers that did nothing in college.
Problem with Legette is he has draft capital & an ADP trend that won't ever allow him to be a sleeper.
Xavier Legette is an excellent sleeper.
Xavier Legette is a terrible first round rookie pick.
Both can be true, and both are true.
For reference
WR pontential rating out of 100:
Franklin: 73. (Also better opportunity) Polk: 66. (Also better opportunity) Legette: 63 (behind Pittman and Downs)
For reference:
MHJ: 97.4 Nabers: 97.1 (broke the scale)
Jamaar Chase: 93 Lamb: 90
Also nice shot in the dark is Coker who usually is on waivers.
Coker: 61 not the best WR room so he can earn reps (I took him 5/5 leagues)
Last year Puka: 60 Rice: 62 because opportunity they shined.
You are ignoring this context:
Legette dominated bad competition, but struggled against good teams & CBs. Got handled by good CBs. By my count (after watching every target Legette had in 2023) he had less than 10 total yards against Nate Wiggins, Kamari Lassiter, and Ennis Rakestraw, Jr. Legette produced 50% of his receiving yards (633/1255 yards) and 42.8% of his TDs (3/7) in four games against either FCS opponent or teams who ranked in the bottom 25% of the FBS in pass defense. So that’s 50% of production in 25% of his games. Meanwhile he only had 14% of his production (179/1255 yards) and 0 TDs against opponents who were top 25% in the FBS in pass defense.
Despite having impressive counting numbers in 2023 his efficiency metrics were still highly questionable as Legette finished last in the class in: QBR when targeted, touchdowns per route run, and first downs per route run. He was also worst in draft class in yards per route run versus zone coverage. From a career perspective Legette was dead last in the class in career yards per route run (by a considerable margin) and also had the worst career PFF grade versus zone coverage. No other South Carolina WR in 2023 had more than 265 receiving yards...so it appears that Legette’s breakout season was more one of inefficient volume from a QB throwing YOLO balls.
The track record of players who like Legette had an adjusted career RYPTA below the 30th percentile as fifth-year seniors who still managed to secure NFL draft capital in the first three rounds of the NFL draft hasn’t been good: Terry McLaurin, Van Jefferson, Miles Boykin, and Velus Jones, Jr. However, McLaurin had the excuse of being behind NFL WRs like Michael Thomas, Curtis Samuel, Parris Campbell, and Noah Brown on Ohio State’s depth chart whereas Legette couldn’t get on the field behind Shi Smith and Josh Vann at South Carolina.
Obviously there has never been a player who did nothing for 4 seasons then broke out in a 5th super season before, but I was curious to see if anyone has ever done nothing in their first two seasons in college, then broke out with a huge junior or senior season and went on to be good in the NFL. I went all the way back to 2000 and the only one year wonders, junior or senior season WR breakouts drafted in the first four rounds of the NFL draft I could find were: Jonathan Mingo, Jallin Hyatt, Jameson Williams, Kevin White, John Ross, Kadarious Toney and Laquon Treadwell. Seven players in the sample size and all seven were busts in the NFL at least so far. Its not great when the best career in your statistical comp list is John Ross.
For the record I am not totally out on Legette. He is still a low end top 10 WR in this class for me, but just adding some additional context to the context the OP gave.
My personal opinion is that, if I need a WR and MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, Worthy, and McConkey are gone, I'd rather trade the pick. One of the other receivers will probably pan out, but I sure as shit am not betting on which one if I can avoid it.
I feel like it all depends on what you can trade the pick for. If you can swap your 2.06 for a guy like Davante Adams or Mike Evans, I’m totally down. If people are just giving you a future 2nd rounder, I doubt you’ll have the opportunity to draft a real life 1st round WR like Legette in the middle of the 2nd in next year’s rookie draft.
Yeah I haven't seen anything of value get moved after approx pick 12-14.
Maybe you can buy Derrick Henry from a rebuilding team for that price? You're not going to get a productive player in their prime at that price.
Nobody is 100% guaranteed to hit either. Especially worthy and Ladd. Late first round WRs have about 50% hit rates. Worthy and Ladd could easily bust and pearsall and lagette could hit. I’m not saying that’s going to happen but just pointing out Ladd and worthy are far from a sure thing.
I think they are safer and I’d prefer them over anyone else in that tier but just saying no one is really 100% safe. Lagette does have an immediate path to production though too.
I mean every team is going to have WRs. Lagette will be playing the traditional X WR role with Dionte on the opposite side. Thielen is more of a slot guy and he’s really old now. Lagette will definitely get plenty of playing time and there really isn’t any elite competition there anyway like JJ or chase etc.
Someone that’s going to clogged WR room is pearsall. He probably won’t do much this year and is more of a 2025 play. But the WRs in front of him are much better and younger than the panthers.
Worthy is going to compete with Rice, Kelce, and marquise brown for targets. That is actually more competition than the panthers. Theres a very real chance worthy will be used more as a low volume deep threat. I definitely don’t see him coming in year 1 and being a target hog.
Ladd probably has the best opportunity out of any rookie WR but is that the main thing people are chasing or is he really an elite talent? I like Ladd but I’m not sure that I see him as an elite WR1 that will come in and take over games. I think I see him more as a WR2. If Ladd were to go to the panthers and Lagette were to go to the chargers would you flip their ranking? It’s possible a lot of people would.
But WRs like Legette who aren't good route runners and have horrendous efficiency are almost guaranteed to fail. Over 99% of WRs drafted with under 2 career college YPRR do not succeed in the NFL and late breakout age also doesn't go in his favor. Legette is a very bad pick. The Panthers love drafting terrible WRs like Mingo and Marshall so it's on par for them
Pearsall is right on that threshold so he has a chance. Basically no shot that Coleman, Polk or Mitchell have consistent success. Mitchell has some of the worst effort I've seen on tape and Polk/Coleman just don't separate well.
I agree that the threshold matters and the career YPRR is a red flag. But the reason this is a tough comparison is because there have been nearly no players drafted in the first round with career YPRR below two. Legette clearly has an exetremely anomalous profile, so when picking between all these guys that are below the thrshold, I think Legette is probably the most likely to succeed.
I’d say Pearsall is the most likely to succeed by a long shot. He has Kyle Shanahan, is in a much better offense with a better QB and is a fantastic route runner. His lack of production is head scratching though.
I’m not necessarily saying Lagette is a great pick. But my point is everyone thinks their WRs will hit however 50% will bust and even the ones that hit the majority will be WR2s.
Is BTJ not in the conversation for you? I thought most had him over Ladd and still a fair number of people above Worthy.
He’s on a good offense, with mediocre options around him, he tested well and had a great season at LSU. Plus he got better draft capital than worthy and Ladd, which should count for something as NFL scouts are usually better than analyst.
But I do agree with the sentiment that after these first few picks it’s probably worth trading out given how high people are on this year’s WRs.
Baker by a country mile. Just a better WR than Polk and is already catching eyes at training camp. Corley cannot play the WR position in the NFL and I like Franklin a lot but he's just not big enough for the position. Size is a huge issue for Franklin. People will be mad they picked Polk over Baker.
Yeah I’m huge on Baker, would take him over Polk. You don’t think he has issues seeing snaps or anything right? He feels like a winner.
Corleys developing a little bro bond with Rodg, but I’m concerned about post-Rodg.
Franklin also feels like a stud, and a sleeper/value pick with how late he was drafted, then the Nix stack ofc. Chemistry is made and he could compete or take over the wr1 position there.
I have these guys ranked about the same spot in that order, Franklin, Baker, Corley. You say Baker’s worth reaching more for ay.
If Baker has issues with snaps then the coaches are fucking morons. Baker is WR1 in terms of talent on that team right now. Of course teams hate admitting they made bad picks but talent always wins out eventually.
I don't really care about Corley's "bond" with Rodgers, he is a bad running back masquerading as a WR. His route running is absolutely horrendous.
I'd say Baker is worth it over Franklin. The size and skills are excellent. Just comes down to QB play and usage. Franklin will need to address his size issues. He's gonna get bullied if he doesn't. I like him a lot don't get me wrong but his BMI was really really bad. Also no way he gets priority over Sutton now.
When both Jalen McMillan and Polk were on the field McMillan outproduced him by a significant margin. I don't think McMillan or Polk are particularly good but we see WRs get overdrafted due to them having good QB play in college all the time. Meanwhile Baker had John Plumlee, whoever that is
To be fair Baker also had extremely weak competition for targets. But that's pretty much his only ding, aside from drops, which don't really matter. Love both Baker and Franklin at cost.
Lol thats good to know I dont follow the college football season. All hail John Plumlee.
The Baker hype is rolling and I’m here for it. I’d pick Baker as early as early 2nd. And Im excited for Maye.
I also sorta liked McMillan as a later dart, around the price of Luke Mac. While we’re discussing wrs. You have any thoughts on these guys too:
Burton, Roman, McMillan, McCaffery
Yeah Baker is awesome. Think he turns out to be a steal.
I like McCaffrey the most out of those guys in terms of value for ADP. He just converted to WR recently and still has a lot of room for improvement. Roman would be my 2nd favorite, think he's a good route runner with great hands but mostly only played out of the slot which isn't great. Don't think he plays wide which could end up being frustrating. Depends on how that offense is and if Wilson still wants to sling it or throws more up the middle. Really don't like Burton much, not a great route runner and is supposed to be a deep threat but isn't particularly big or fast, plus has some big character issues.
With you on this. 1st round capital, huge and athletic frame, and at least one year of awesome production in the SEC. Anyone arguing he’s not worth any 24 2nd is just hating for no reason.
I had 1.12 in a 1QB league and I took him there. I like your write up but also his draft stock as 1.32 to me means Car will try and force him into playing
As in all shouldn't be drafted. Spend your pick on Javon Baker. Insane to me how underrated he is and that guys like those 3 are above him, Polk because of Penix and the other two because they ran fast. Baker has a lot of unheralded skills
Polk went 2.05 in the nfl draft baker went 4.10 to the same team. That alone makes it ludicrous to draft baker over Polk. If u mean u like him better at cost that’s fine but it would be moronic to draft baker over Polk
Baker is just better. I don’t know why everyone has their opinions about players before the draft then afterwards just assume there are no busts and every player will produce exactly to their draft capital. Polk isn’t good
I didn't plan on taking Legette, I do worry about his profile and landing spot. However, I got him at the 4.03 in my 8-team league, so the 27th pick or 3.03 in a 12-team league. At that price, I couldn't pass up on a first round draft capital WR. He has the physical tools and opportunity to have the ceiling of a mix of DK and AJB monster.
How is Polk’s situation worse? He could be the number 1 WR this year. Legette has almost no shot of that.
Not saying it’s likely, but it’s far more likely than Legette.
Solid post, i think he’s overlooked at ADP as well. Hard for me to justify Pearsall or Mitchell over him
I don’t remember where I got my info so take it with a grain of salt, but I had Polk’s YPRR at 2.3. Maybe I wasn’t using career YPRR(?), not sure. I think Polk is also being underrated a bit
You are citing the elite season where he dominated, but that was in year 5 with no other target competition. Key part: Year 5.
For example, if early declares like Keon Coleman and Mitchell got to play another 2 seasons, are we sure they wouldn’t put up silly numbers in year 5? They also played in loaded offenses that will have double digit draft picks on that side of the ball alone after the ‘25 season (taking into account the guys already drafted in 2024).
I agree that context matters and at some point once we get to mid 2nd ADP, I shoot for upside. Your post has merit.
I just don’t think Leggette is an apples to apples comparison to guys like AD Mitchell and Keon Coleman who are younger prospects at 20/21 and early declares.
I just took Legette at the 2.07. He is being very much disrespected. I feel like Bryce Young is going to take a leap forward with the vastly improved offense.
A first round WR in the back half of the 2nd round is a smash every single time for me I don't care how much I don't like the profile
In one league I had to trade into 2.12 to get him it's bananas to me
Wow, what a helpful comment! This will be great if you go comment this on every post. I'm sure people that made an actual effort to put something interesting and engaging for others to read will love it! Maybe next you can go comment this on the "Legette is a bust" posts to hedge your bets lol
I don't trust the team that drafted him. They drafted the same 3 WRs in TMJ, Mingo, and now Leggette. 1 year breakouts who are great athletes. They don't seem to be able to develop these guys or give them enough chance after 1 season.
Johnson is insanely underhyped. WR8 in PPR with the corpse of big ben at QB. Kenny "can't even throw 1 TD per game" pickett somehow made people think that Diontae is a quitter though. Utterly ridiculous.
Johnson and Legette have complementary skill sets. They can both produce if Bryce (and the whole offense in general) improves. I’m not completely sold on Bryce, but between hiring Canales, reworking the O-line, and drafting 3 skill players in the first 4 rounds, they’re at least trying to put him in a much, much better spot to succeed.
you talk about how the guys around legette in drafts all having poor analytical profiles, which i agree
through 11 rookie drafts i own 0 legette, polk, pearsall, and wilson. i had 1 coleman and he was off my roster before my next pick which was 2 picks later. i have 1 mitchell i got at 2.12 in SF which i am actively shopping.
there are all misses for me. i would rather benson or sliding back for lloyd/sinnott and getting 3rds on top. gimme lloyd/sinnott with a baker/walker/cowing over any of the guys above by themselves
I think it's fair if you want to be totally out on R2 WRs. The RBs there are interesting too, but I like Legette because unlike the other R2 WRs, he has tantalizing upside. And the other R2 WRs have boring, bad, typical production profiles that look like a bust, whereas Legette has a bizarre, bananas, unheard of production profile that looks bad on the surface, but we've never seen before, so I'm a lot less confident calling him a bust based on that profile
i think im perfectly okay with calling him a bust on the basis that he produced less than 200 yards as a senior on a mid level team and appeared in every game the team played. finishing 10th in receiving yards on your team in a full season as a senior is not something im chasing. interestingly enough, without covid he may not have even gotten a fifth year to have his good season.
i will say i do see the appeal in the late 2nd round but he has not slipped that far in any of my leagues where i had late 2s
I will draft *any* any 1st round WR in the back half of the 2nd round
this mentality got me Zay Flowers last year in the mid 2nd. NFL scouts know hilariously more than anyone on this sub no matter how many leagues they got Puka in
^^ Lotta guys are happy they took Aiyuk in the 2nd too. Even Jefferson fell in a decent amount of leagues
And none of us took Puka with a top 5 pick, which means we all got unfathomably lucky with his production. We all got him because we liked him more than the other 3rd round dart throws that were available.
5.07
I went Mingo (1.12, nope), Downs (2.12, maybe?)and Puka (3.12 GOLDMINE). Carpetbomb the position kids! That’s the takeaway.
i'mma bout to go JJ McCarthy 1.07, Penix Jr 2.07, Jordan travis 3.07 & spencer rattler 4.07
Spencer might actually be the Puka in this draft: cool name, low cost, might get an opportunity to shine in Y1. I wouldn’t bet on it, but it is possible.
considering who I spent my 4th round pick on last year (Darnell Washington in PIT) I can't really do any worse this year.
Why would Flowers drop to the mid second in any format? He was a consensus top 10 fantasy draft pick.
SF 10 team, guys like Charbs and kendre miller went before him. Sometimes people are dumb.
Charbs and Kendre would go high again. People are suckers for any RBs
What league did flowers go mid second?! He was 1.09 in my drafts. That mentality also got me Dotson in the mid second.
I got Polk and legatte. I hate both.
Why do you hate Polk?
To me, the problem with Polk is that there's nothing to love. His college production analytical profile is bad. His athleticism also isn't that great. RAS is decent, but his 40-time is mediocre, and statistically the 40 time matters way more for WRs than the other drills (see below.) There's also the fact that for most of his career, he was perceived as worse than McMillan, who was drafted way later. Draft Capital matters, but to me, seems like draft capital is the only thing going for Polk. https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/p/scouting-combine-drills-that-matter-674
Um how about a glaringly obvious path to high volume and no competition? That seems like the obvious “pro” for him compared to most other guys
Yeah for sure I too think John Ross, marquise Godwin, Henry Ruggs, Jacoby ford, JJ Nelson, and Tyquan Thornton were true WR1’s that really show how much 40 times matter for WR’s
This was my thought too. He wasnt even the best receiver on his team until the WR1 went down and they had to throw to him. I'm not even worried about stats and analytics, 40 times or any of that shit. He was just a worse WR that was thrust into the spotlight. Like Tee Higgins when Chase missed 4 games.
I know it's an exception, but I remember saying the same thing about Toney over ARSB. I've dropped Toney since then.
It’s an odds game. If you follow the process of 1st rounder > day 3 I think you’ll come out ahead in the long run. The last day 3 guy prior to ARSB who got steamed way up was Hakeem Butler, and he’s playing UFL right now. But if anyone out there has a consistent track record of sharp shooting day 3 WRs over 1st rounders over a sizable sample, they should keep doing so. I personally don’t believe I can succeed at that, and I’d bet anyone who does without the track record to prove it is fooling themselves (I do think it’s fine to take an early 2nd guy with a better profile over Legette though) There were also plenty of opportunities to get out with a profit on Toney. Drafting him was a fine outcome if managed well
Idk if I could bring myself to do this, but I’d rather get Franklin or Wilson than Legette
I think you should probably heed whatever reservation you have pulling the trigger on that. But who knows, there’s a lot of unpredictability over a sample size of 1. If you only have a team or 2, I can understand getting your guys over optimizing process
I mean I’m the classic guy who feels like he’s the best at this, but I feel like I’m always right with receivers. Last year for example I reached on Dell in my main league (but tbf the only receivers I skipped there were Mims, Hyatt, and Reed). Anyways I made a point of drafting Dell everywhere, which I could because he was cheap. This year in 1QB I have the 2.01, 2.06, and 2.08. I was thinking Franklin Wilson for 2.06 and 2.08, but I might have to reach to guarantee
Ok, but we're playing percentages. You can't identify the ASRBs of the world over the 90% of day 3 WRs that bust. Legette has lots of flaws, but you're getting a 1st round WR in the back half of round 2. The risk is priced in.
Legette has way more good to him than flaws IMO. What are all of the flaws you're thinking of?
Mostly his late breakout age and terrible yprr.
The thing is: These are really one in the same, which is what gives me more confidence in Legette. He has terrible career YPRR because he had such a late breakout age. He's not like a Coleman where even in his "good" seasons, he had terrible YPRR. He had an amazing YPRR in 2023. The thing about Legette is: The negatives are clearly priced in. If Legette didn't have those flaws and he'd performed his whole college career like 2023, he'd be a top 10 pick, competitive with Odunze. Compare that to a guy like Pearsall who has very similar flaws, if Pearsall performed his whole college career like 2023, would he vault way up? Probably not, he'd probably be priced about the same. So the flaws are being priced in for Legette, not Pearsall.
Off the top of your head, I bet you can't remember which rd 3 wr's Didnt hit from that year
Toney never put up almost 1.3k yards in a single season like Legette. That's on you.
took toney a pick before arsb in 2 different leagues just being like wow a first rounder fell and hes electric ill take him if nobody else does. oof
Interesting take. What do you think about Ladd? And any chance Harbaugh uses him as a rb-wr type?
I’d take him before Legette. I like him well enough, good route running, good efficiency metrics, good athlete. I do think people are getting somewhat overexcited with the year 1 projections based on “who else can Herbert possibly throw to” but ultimately I think he’ll succeed
Ladd looks like he’ll be a Tyler Lockett in the making
You can't get Ladd that late
I just saw the guy’s a Charger fan and wondered his thoughts on Ladd homey, because I respect his take on going WR back half of round 2. Gimme a break lol
Yeah idk why you’re getting downvoted for that
Who know’s man. The Chargers are super intriguing for the coming season with all their change, and Im pumped to see it. And there’s so many catches and yards to replace in the offense for you all.
Fair enough man. I was reading it in the context of the thread, didn't notice he was a chargers fan.
I guess it depends more on who would you be willing to draft him over.
Every day 2 - 3 WR besides McConkey, Coleman, and maaaybe Polk. Every RB besides Brooks and maaaaybe Benson. Every TE but Bowers and maaaaaaybe Sinnott in TEP
Give me legette over Coleman. But the number of late breakout hits are better then the number of can’t separate in college hits easily
Great post, only pushback I'd give is on Polk. Polk is a good athlete with an 8.85 RAS. That is higher than GW and Olave, JSN, CeeDee Lamb, AJB, and many other great receivers and prospects alike
I just selected Polk in my SF startup at pick 11.6, i think thats a good value
In a 10 team start 11 sf I got him at 14.6 or rookie pick 23. Wasn’t super high on him as a prospect but couldn’t pass up the value
Polk also shared the field with Odunze and McMillan for multiple years. Regardless though, it's ridiculous to get a 1st round WR in the mid to late 2nd.
This doesn’t mean what you think it does. There are 26 wide receivers in this 2024 draft class alone with a higher RAS score than Polk… Edit: and Legette is 4th in this class with 9.90 lol
RAS means nothing.. last year proved it. Rice was 10th, JSN 41st, Flowers 42nd, Addison 105th, Dell 109th, Puka 124th lol. Top 5 in 23' was Ford-Wheaton, Iosivas, Mingo, Landers, Dowell. I like Polk btw so this isn't directed at him. RAS is only really useful for how athletic a guy is but doesn't confirm projected success at all.
I think what you mean to say is that athleticism isn't a huge factor in WR success. RAS does a great job at what it's measuring. Wide receiver is simply more than how big you are and how fast you can run in a straight line. Polk is an example of that
RAS definitely adds to a guy with good tape+draft capital. You used it as a way to validate Polk as a good athlete which is fine
RAS doesn't really do a great job of what it's measuring, though. It makes no attempt to account for importance of the various factors and plays poorly with extremes. It's pretty much the most naive attempt possible to create an athleticism metric from combine data.
That would actually make it a bad measurement of athleticism if you're saying importance to NFL production
Jelani Woods ran a 4.61 at 253 pounds. Kyle Pitts ran a 4.44 at 245 pounds. RAS considers those 8 pounds more important to athleticism score than the 0.17 seconds on the 40. I certainly don't agree. If Xavier Worthy had run a sub 4 second 40 instead of a 4.21, he still wouldn't be top 10 in the class at RAS. If he'd also benched and put up 10 reps of 225, he'd be considered less athletic than Polk. Height plays a big part in the score but arm length doesn't factor in at all, for some reason.
The arm length part I agree with. It should be evaluated somehow because it matters Worthy is 165 pounds, so yeah as an athlete in totality he's pretty one dimensional. RAS is accurately reflecting that, he's ass at everything but speed and explosion and yet he's a 9.41 With TEs I reckon you're too focused on fantasy with that take because you don't need speed to block, but yeah unicorn receiving TEs don't fit neatly into the statistics for the position. That's what makes them unicorns. If you want to see how he fares against receivers he's a 9.38 for that position. He's elite as shit in both. As for Jelani, it's the agility drills not the weight
Edit: I apologize if this sounds overly combative.... I just *hate* the approach RAS takes to quantifying athleticism >Worthy is 165 pounds, so yeah as an athlete in totality he's pretty one dimensional. RAS is accurately reflecting that, he's ass at everything but speed and explosion and yet he's a 9.41 Shouldn't him running faster than he did increase his athleticism score though? Like if he's the fastest man on the planet at 165lbs he's still not as athletic as Luke McCaffrey? >With TEs I reckon you're too focused on fantasy with that take, but yeah unicorn receiving TEs don't fit neatly into the statistics for the position. That's what makes them unicorns. If you want to see how he fares against receivers he's a 9.38 for that position. He's elite as shit in both. As for Jelani, it's the agility drills not the weight You really think if Pitts gained 8 pounds at the expense of running a 4.61, that should give him a higher athleticism score? There's a lot of TEs who are ~250 pounds so those 8 pounds take you from like 30th percentile to 65th. But 4.61 is already 93rd percentile so bumping it up to the 99th percentile 4.44 doesn't get you muxh if a RAS boost. . Or, hell, look at Polk's 40 time. There were 4 receivers slower than him and 24 receivers faster than him at the combine this year, and he gets a 6.89 for that. I'm with you that speed is overrated for receivers, but he's being inflated here because he's faster than almost everyone who ran the 40 in the mid-late 90s.
>Shouldn't him running faster than he did increase his athleticism score though? Like if he's the fastest man on the planet at 165lbs he's still not as athletic as Luke McCaffrey? Correct, McCaffrey ran a good 40 and has elite agility while being 30 pounds heavier. Remember how hyped everyone was about JSN's agility? It's close to that. Worthy didn't even do agility drills Maybe a better way to put this is... I'm way more impressed when a guy like BTJ runs a 4.33 at 209 pounds than I am a guy running 4.21 at 165. In practical terms, the big guy is still really freaking fast while being better for everything else a receiver needs to do because he has size >You really think if Pitts gained 8 pounds at the expense of running a 4.61, that should give him a higher athleticism score? There's a lot of TEs who are ~250 pounds so those 8 pounds take you from like 30th percentile to 65th. But 4.61 is already 93rd percentile so bumping it up to the 99th percentile 4.44 doesn't get you muxh if a RAS boost. I know you just agreed about it being overrated but I'm still sensing that all you care about is speed lol. Again, Jelani had pretty insane agility drills for being 6'7" 250. He ran a 6.95 3 cone. Pitts ran a 7.12. Pitts had decent agility times, but that's what hurt his RAS comparatively >Or, hell, look at Polk's 40 time. There were 4 receivers slower than him and 24 receivers faster than him at the combine this year, and he gets a 6.89 for that. I'm with you that speed is overrated for receivers, but he's being inflated here because he's faster than almost everyone who ran the 40 in the mid-late 90s. From Jerry Rice to DeAndre Hopkins to Davante Adams to Puka Nacua, you've never needed speed to win as a receiver. That and 40 times can be deceiving since some of these guys are faster on a football field than their times would indicate
Yeah the percentile system makes sense but is weird too. If worthy ran a 1 second 40, he’d be incomprehensibly athletic, but his RAS wouldn’t change
How can it not mean what I think it does? On a scale of 1 to 10, in the history of the NFL since 1987, that 8.85/10 says Polk is athletic. More athletic than all of the guys I just listed and 88.5% of all receivers since 1987 to enter the NFL. OP is wrong to say he isn't. These are facts. Yes this wide receiver class is historically athletic. What does that have to do with whether a singular guy is athletic? And why does a fellow rookie being more athletic make someone a mediocre (ie below average) athlete? It doesn't. Not to mention, athleticism doesn't actually correlate very well to positional success, so it's not a great argument to begin with. I was literally just pushing back on the claim that Polk isn't a good athlete. He is.
I think RAS the past few years has gotten less reliable since now players will refuse to test on any metrics they're not top tier in. If a guy is going to suck on 3 cone he just doesn't do it, and he doesn't get dinged on RAS. Size/weight also factor in too heavily. Polk to me looks like a good not great NFL athlete who is better than the sum of his parts.
While I agree about the drill skipping and how it inflates scores, one thing we should keep in mind is that speed is the most overrated trait when it comes to evaluating athletic ability as well as player ceiling for their position. Lots of people say Polk is a mediocre athlete because he ran a 4.52 40 yard dash, which is a bigger mistake than using RAS despite its own flaws
i tend to bin RAS as a consideration if someone has an incomplete RAS profile, especially if they didnt run in just one or two of the categories; means its more likely they're just dodging their bad categories.
Yeah but calling Polk mediocre is just underselling Polk
Yeah, I think this is essentially what I'm getting at. My point was that for all of these guys: You have to ask "why will a player who wasn't elite in college be good against way better competition?" For all three of Pearsall, Legette and Mitchell, you can say "they have elite athleticism that you can't teach, so maybe they could make the next step." Polk does not have that. He's not a bad athlete, his athleticism is sufficient for the NFL, but it's not so great that you can say "he wasn't amazing in college, but he'll be great in the NFL because he's such a great athlete and can take the next step." Wilson, olave, JSN and CeeDee all had amazing college production.
Polk's 69/1159/9 season is better than anything GW or Olave ever put up. GW is close if you care about 1 extra reception and 3 more TDs over 150ish yards, but Olave had zero 1000 yard college seasons
Polk put up more raw numbers because he played 15 games, whereas in Olave's senior year he had more YPG. I typically look at YPRR for this reason to avoid comparing apples to oranges. Olave had an extremely impressive 3.33 his junior year and a very good, but not great 2.29 YPRR his senior year. Polk's senior year high watermark was the same as Olave's: 2.29, but his career was well below Polk's. Olave had I am a Patriots fan, so I'd love for Polk to dominate in the NFL. I'm also not super low on Polk compared to ADP, but I'm not extremely bullish on his profile. He's a very justifiable pick in the late second, but I'm not drafting a ton of him.
That's all fair 👍🤝
>But I've grown to be cautiously in on Legette and here's why: My pick falls around his ADP
Lol. TL;DR: I agree with consensus
Back in like January, Before I looked into the stats, I was just looking at film. I immediately said "I think Leggette will be the 4th receiver off the board.".(Obviously that was wrong.) He fell off a bit after I looked at his stats. But I see very few red flags in his film, they're all in the stats. I ended up getting him at 2.09 and I feel like I got an absolute steal.
I’ve been screaming from the roof tops about Legette. I think he has some rawness to his game so I don’t expect 1K his first year with DJ and Thielen still around. However, I do expect 5-6 touches a game to start. No 2nd round (dynasty) prospect has the upside that Legette does and all of them have the same risk or worse.
Legette fell to me at 2.06 in a 12 man SF, couldn’t pass up 1st round draft cap that deep in the draft
Fell to 3.01 in our draft, wasn't planning on taking him because I think he screams bust. But why the hell not at that price?
Yea I mean if you can get a real life first rounder round 3 you can’t pass it up
Legette and Polk fell to 3.01 and 3.03 in my 12 Team SF. Made a trade earlier where I went from 1.07 to 1.04 for Nabers, sold 2.07, and got 3.03 and a 3rd next year. Felt like amazing value both on the trade and my pick at 3.03 with Polk.
My issue with saying Legette dominated was how much he smacked mid majors and lower class defenses. He dominated some of the worst teams and defenses in CFB and was more fine against legitimate defenses.
Even if it wasn't the mid majors, he could have been Kevin White and it's still a scary profile. For those that don't remember, Kevin put up 9/150/1 against Alabama and then followed that up by smacking every single Big 12 team for between 130-220 yards and at least 1 touchdown.
I think the difference here is cost. The NFL and fantasy players have gotten a lot smarter. Legette and White do have similar profiles, but White went 1.07 overall, and while I don't know where rookie ADPs went back then, I assume White was at the top of the first round. The NFL has gotten smarter, which is why Legette went 1.32 instead of 1.07, as if you just looked at senior year YPRR + athleticism, Legette would be a top 10 pick. Dynasty players are discounting him even further to the point where you can get a R1 WR in the mid 2nd.
It only takes one. I betcha that Carolina front office would have taken him top 20 if they had a pick there.
Carolina sucks ass at evaluating talent.
Our first round picks have all been pretty good since 2015 with the exception of Vernon butler. Its our later rounds that we suck at evaluating talent
I am excited to see if legette can look as exciting as his highlight tape
Yeah, I didn't mention that, but I do agree that's a very real concern. It is a small sample size though, and I don't think it moves the needle at the opportunity cost. It's definitely something that prevents me from getting *too* high on Legette though. I'd never take him above a McConkey, and I'd probably take Coleman over him simply because the situation is so good, even though I like Legette's profile better. But vs. Pearsall, Polk, Mitchell, it doesn't matter as much to me.
I think it’d be more concerning if he didn’t beat up on the small schools, personally. That’s kind of what you expect
Sorta, but a team can also get away with not using those players often in those games and might do things like managing reps. To be clear, I don't think it's a bad thing that he did well against the worse competition. I think it's a bad thing he didn't show more in the bigger games. That's what makes me hesitate to crown the 2023 production.
And it took him until his 5th year to do it
He's also the youngest and most gifted (not best, just talking about his size/speed combo) WR on a team that needs his exact skillset. I like the vision Canales described for Legette and I am a believer in Bryce Young, so I'm with you. Had the change to grab Legs at 2.01 in my 14T league rookie draft and I didn't look back.
>He's also the youngest and most gifted (not best, just talking about his size/speed combo) WR on a team that needs his exact skillset For what it's worth, he's actually older than and more or less identically athletic as Mingo. Not that it should sway anyone, given the Panthers canned Fitterer this off-season, but it's not as black-and-white as the team needing an athletic receiver and picking the best option.
Shh... 2023 YPRR Xavier Legette - 3.15 Brian Thomas Jr. - 2.61 Ricky Pearsall - 2.23 Keok Coleman -1.74
Yeah, let everyone else faint over career YPRR.
Jalen Coker 23 YPRR - 3.51
Peak year YPRR (with min constraints) means something. May not mean everything, but it means something. I'm not sure where Legette's ADP is right now but if it's something like early 3rd in 12 team superflex then I'm grabbing all the shares. But too much before that I'm probably taking swings on riskier draft capital with better production profiles, or there is a high degree of likelihood a flatly better player is available.
> I'm not sure where Legette's ADP is right now but if it's something like early 3rd in 12 team superflex then I'm grabbing all the shares. I've seen him go 3.1 as drafts go on because people are reaching for RBs like Vidal, Lloyd, and Wright earlier in the 2nd than they should be going.
Vidal is an overdraft. Lloyd is still a third round pick and fits an open role in that GB offense that has been quite productive historically. Jacobs is still the lead back and should suck all the air out of that room, but Lloyd projects as an excellent handcuff. Wright, Miami didn't have a third round pick, and traded their '25 3rd round pick for. I have no problem Wright over Legette as a high upside handcuff pick.
Career YPRR is *far* more predictive for WRs. Almost to the point that peak year YPRR is irrelevant. Legette took 5 years to dominate against bad teams and had a few plays where he got a ton of YAC. Catching a hitch and running to the endzone against a bad team with not great DBs isn't impressive. Final year production is much more predictive for RBs than for WRs
I never said it wasn't more predictive, I also didn't say anything about final year YPRR, I explicitly said peak year YPRR (w/ appropriate min threshold) But it also has the bonus effect of helping tease out sleepers. You don't want to be drafting sleepers that did nothing in college. Problem with Legette is he has draft capital & an ADP trend that won't ever allow him to be a sleeper. Xavier Legette is an excellent sleeper. Xavier Legette is a terrible first round rookie pick. Both can be true, and both are true.
He's not a sleeper because he has a lot more hype than he deserves, which is really none.
I plan on drafting him at 2.1, if available, based solely on his voice
For reference WR pontential rating out of 100: Franklin: 73. (Also better opportunity) Polk: 66. (Also better opportunity) Legette: 63 (behind Pittman and Downs) For reference: MHJ: 97.4 Nabers: 97.1 (broke the scale) Jamaar Chase: 93 Lamb: 90 Also nice shot in the dark is Coker who usually is on waivers. Coker: 61 not the best WR room so he can earn reps (I took him 5/5 leagues) Last year Puka: 60 Rice: 62 because opportunity they shined.
Can you share this list?
Legette isn’t behind Pitman & Downs. That’s AD.
I got him at 2.09 in a SF/TEP draft last week and at that cost I’m in all day
Got him at 2.06 in my rookie draft and at that point all the WRs have red flags so it’s really a dice roll no matter what.
I got legette at 2.10 in my SF. Felt like value. Then I heard him speak and fell in love
You are ignoring this context: Legette dominated bad competition, but struggled against good teams & CBs. Got handled by good CBs. By my count (after watching every target Legette had in 2023) he had less than 10 total yards against Nate Wiggins, Kamari Lassiter, and Ennis Rakestraw, Jr. Legette produced 50% of his receiving yards (633/1255 yards) and 42.8% of his TDs (3/7) in four games against either FCS opponent or teams who ranked in the bottom 25% of the FBS in pass defense. So that’s 50% of production in 25% of his games. Meanwhile he only had 14% of his production (179/1255 yards) and 0 TDs against opponents who were top 25% in the FBS in pass defense. Despite having impressive counting numbers in 2023 his efficiency metrics were still highly questionable as Legette finished last in the class in: QBR when targeted, touchdowns per route run, and first downs per route run. He was also worst in draft class in yards per route run versus zone coverage. From a career perspective Legette was dead last in the class in career yards per route run (by a considerable margin) and also had the worst career PFF grade versus zone coverage. No other South Carolina WR in 2023 had more than 265 receiving yards...so it appears that Legette’s breakout season was more one of inefficient volume from a QB throwing YOLO balls. The track record of players who like Legette had an adjusted career RYPTA below the 30th percentile as fifth-year seniors who still managed to secure NFL draft capital in the first three rounds of the NFL draft hasn’t been good: Terry McLaurin, Van Jefferson, Miles Boykin, and Velus Jones, Jr. However, McLaurin had the excuse of being behind NFL WRs like Michael Thomas, Curtis Samuel, Parris Campbell, and Noah Brown on Ohio State’s depth chart whereas Legette couldn’t get on the field behind Shi Smith and Josh Vann at South Carolina. Obviously there has never been a player who did nothing for 4 seasons then broke out in a 5th super season before, but I was curious to see if anyone has ever done nothing in their first two seasons in college, then broke out with a huge junior or senior season and went on to be good in the NFL. I went all the way back to 2000 and the only one year wonders, junior or senior season WR breakouts drafted in the first four rounds of the NFL draft I could find were: Jonathan Mingo, Jallin Hyatt, Jameson Williams, Kevin White, John Ross, Kadarious Toney and Laquon Treadwell. Seven players in the sample size and all seven were busts in the NFL at least so far. Its not great when the best career in your statistical comp list is John Ross. For the record I am not totally out on Legette. He is still a low end top 10 WR in this class for me, but just adding some additional context to the context the OP gave.
My personal opinion is that, if I need a WR and MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, Worthy, and McConkey are gone, I'd rather trade the pick. One of the other receivers will probably pan out, but I sure as shit am not betting on which one if I can avoid it.
I feel like it all depends on what you can trade the pick for. If you can swap your 2.06 for a guy like Davante Adams or Mike Evans, I’m totally down. If people are just giving you a future 2nd rounder, I doubt you’ll have the opportunity to draft a real life 1st round WR like Legette in the middle of the 2nd in next year’s rookie draft.
Yeah I haven't seen anything of value get moved after approx pick 12-14. Maybe you can buy Derrick Henry from a rebuilding team for that price? You're not going to get a productive player in their prime at that price.
Nobody is 100% guaranteed to hit either. Especially worthy and Ladd. Late first round WRs have about 50% hit rates. Worthy and Ladd could easily bust and pearsall and lagette could hit. I’m not saying that’s going to happen but just pointing out Ladd and worthy are far from a sure thing.
I agree. But I feel a lot safer taking Worthy or Ladd. They obviously could bust too but they have a path to immediate production and good QBs.
I think they are safer and I’d prefer them over anyone else in that tier but just saying no one is really 100% safe. Lagette does have an immediate path to production though too.
Does he? Thielen and Diontae Johnson are going to hog most of the targets.
I mean every team is going to have WRs. Lagette will be playing the traditional X WR role with Dionte on the opposite side. Thielen is more of a slot guy and he’s really old now. Lagette will definitely get plenty of playing time and there really isn’t any elite competition there anyway like JJ or chase etc. Someone that’s going to clogged WR room is pearsall. He probably won’t do much this year and is more of a 2025 play. But the WRs in front of him are much better and younger than the panthers. Worthy is going to compete with Rice, Kelce, and marquise brown for targets. That is actually more competition than the panthers. Theres a very real chance worthy will be used more as a low volume deep threat. I definitely don’t see him coming in year 1 and being a target hog. Ladd probably has the best opportunity out of any rookie WR but is that the main thing people are chasing or is he really an elite talent? I like Ladd but I’m not sure that I see him as an elite WR1 that will come in and take over games. I think I see him more as a WR2. If Ladd were to go to the panthers and Lagette were to go to the chargers would you flip their ranking? It’s possible a lot of people would.
But WRs like Legette who aren't good route runners and have horrendous efficiency are almost guaranteed to fail. Over 99% of WRs drafted with under 2 career college YPRR do not succeed in the NFL and late breakout age also doesn't go in his favor. Legette is a very bad pick. The Panthers love drafting terrible WRs like Mingo and Marshall so it's on par for them
Coleman, Pearsall, Polk and Mitchell (Legette's peer group) all have career YPRR below 2 as well.
Pearsall is right on that threshold so he has a chance. Basically no shot that Coleman, Polk or Mitchell have consistent success. Mitchell has some of the worst effort I've seen on tape and Polk/Coleman just don't separate well.
I agree that the threshold matters and the career YPRR is a red flag. But the reason this is a tough comparison is because there have been nearly no players drafted in the first round with career YPRR below two. Legette clearly has an exetremely anomalous profile, so when picking between all these guys that are below the thrshold, I think Legette is probably the most likely to succeed.
I’d say Pearsall is the most likely to succeed by a long shot. He has Kyle Shanahan, is in a much better offense with a better QB and is a fantastic route runner. His lack of production is head scratching though.
Matt harmon seems to think Polk separates quite well on intermediate and short routes
Harmon’s analysis also isn’t very good. His success rate stuff is just subjective
I’m not necessarily saying Lagette is a great pick. But my point is everyone thinks their WRs will hit however 50% will bust and even the ones that hit the majority will be WR2s.
Is BTJ not in the conversation for you? I thought most had him over Ladd and still a fair number of people above Worthy. He’s on a good offense, with mediocre options around him, he tested well and had a great season at LSU. Plus he got better draft capital than worthy and Ladd, which should count for something as NFL scouts are usually better than analyst. But I do agree with the sentiment that after these first few picks it’s probably worth trading out given how high people are on this year’s WRs.
Forgot about him. Yeah, I’d use a late first on him.
After the big 3, they’re all an upside gamble. Including Ladd and Worthy.
Select one later, I’m huge on this 2/3rd tier/round this year. Franklin, Baker, Corley primarily
Baker by a country mile. Just a better WR than Polk and is already catching eyes at training camp. Corley cannot play the WR position in the NFL and I like Franklin a lot but he's just not big enough for the position. Size is a huge issue for Franklin. People will be mad they picked Polk over Baker.
Yeah I’m huge on Baker, would take him over Polk. You don’t think he has issues seeing snaps or anything right? He feels like a winner. Corleys developing a little bro bond with Rodg, but I’m concerned about post-Rodg. Franklin also feels like a stud, and a sleeper/value pick with how late he was drafted, then the Nix stack ofc. Chemistry is made and he could compete or take over the wr1 position there. I have these guys ranked about the same spot in that order, Franklin, Baker, Corley. You say Baker’s worth reaching more for ay.
If Baker has issues with snaps then the coaches are fucking morons. Baker is WR1 in terms of talent on that team right now. Of course teams hate admitting they made bad picks but talent always wins out eventually. I don't really care about Corley's "bond" with Rodgers, he is a bad running back masquerading as a WR. His route running is absolutely horrendous. I'd say Baker is worth it over Franklin. The size and skills are excellent. Just comes down to QB play and usage. Franklin will need to address his size issues. He's gonna get bullied if he doesn't. I like him a lot don't get me wrong but his BMI was really really bad. Also no way he gets priority over Sutton now. When both Jalen McMillan and Polk were on the field McMillan outproduced him by a significant margin. I don't think McMillan or Polk are particularly good but we see WRs get overdrafted due to them having good QB play in college all the time. Meanwhile Baker had John Plumlee, whoever that is
To be fair Baker also had extremely weak competition for targets. But that's pretty much his only ding, aside from drops, which don't really matter. Love both Baker and Franklin at cost.
Lol thats good to know I dont follow the college football season. All hail John Plumlee. The Baker hype is rolling and I’m here for it. I’d pick Baker as early as early 2nd. And Im excited for Maye. I also sorta liked McMillan as a later dart, around the price of Luke Mac. While we’re discussing wrs. You have any thoughts on these guys too: Burton, Roman, McMillan, McCaffery
Yeah Baker is awesome. Think he turns out to be a steal. I like McCaffrey the most out of those guys in terms of value for ADP. He just converted to WR recently and still has a lot of room for improvement. Roman would be my 2nd favorite, think he's a good route runner with great hands but mostly only played out of the slot which isn't great. Don't think he plays wide which could end up being frustrating. Depends on how that offense is and if Wilson still wants to sling it or throws more up the middle. Really don't like Burton much, not a great route runner and is supposed to be a deep threat but isn't particularly big or fast, plus has some big character issues.
u/dickysnakes this might be the only guy higher on XL
I’m just as high 💨
Higher. He's apprehensive
Cautious**
Oh wow
With that accent I know he’s destined for the HoF
Biggest red flag is the QB.
With you on this. 1st round capital, huge and athletic frame, and at least one year of awesome production in the SEC. Anyone arguing he’s not worth any 24 2nd is just hating for no reason.
I had 1.12 in a 1QB league and I took him there. I like your write up but also his draft stock as 1.32 to me means Car will try and force him into playing
I have Polk, Legette, and Mitchell all around the same tier. I’m just trying to trade back and get one of them at best value
As in all shouldn't be drafted. Spend your pick on Javon Baker. Insane to me how underrated he is and that guys like those 3 are above him, Polk because of Penix and the other two because they ran fast. Baker has a lot of unheralded skills
Polk went 2.05 in the nfl draft baker went 4.10 to the same team. That alone makes it ludicrous to draft baker over Polk. If u mean u like him better at cost that’s fine but it would be moronic to draft baker over Polk
Baker is just better. I don’t know why everyone has their opinions about players before the draft then afterwards just assume there are no busts and every player will produce exactly to their draft capital. Polk isn’t good
I didn't plan on taking Legette, I do worry about his profile and landing spot. However, I got him at the 4.03 in my 8-team league, so the 27th pick or 3.03 in a 12-team league. At that price, I couldn't pass up on a first round draft capital WR. He has the physical tools and opportunity to have the ceiling of a mix of DK and AJB monster.
maybe you are on him due to carolina always nailing that wr prospect!! lmao
Legette is also 3 years older than Coleman and 2 years older than Polk which I think is something that should be considered
Huh? Legette is 1 year older than Polk
How is Polk’s situation worse? He could be the number 1 WR this year. Legette has almost no shot of that. Not saying it’s likely, but it’s far more likely than Legette.
Solid post, i think he’s overlooked at ADP as well. Hard for me to justify Pearsall or Mitchell over him I don’t remember where I got my info so take it with a grain of salt, but I had Polk’s YPRR at 2.3. Maybe I wasn’t using career YPRR(?), not sure. I think Polk is also being underrated a bit
pearsall is 1.99 yprr. worth noting
You are citing the elite season where he dominated, but that was in year 5 with no other target competition. Key part: Year 5. For example, if early declares like Keon Coleman and Mitchell got to play another 2 seasons, are we sure they wouldn’t put up silly numbers in year 5? They also played in loaded offenses that will have double digit draft picks on that side of the ball alone after the ‘25 season (taking into account the guys already drafted in 2024). I agree that context matters and at some point once we get to mid 2nd ADP, I shoot for upside. Your post has merit. I just don’t think Leggette is an apples to apples comparison to guys like AD Mitchell and Keon Coleman who are younger prospects at 20/21 and early declares.
Good point. The position switch thing is also over-emphasized. He played QB for one season in HS. So he's been playing WR for like 6-7 years now.
The problem I have with Legette is you're betting not only on him, you're also betting on the QB and the coach.
The coach I like I think he’ll be good. Bryce doesn’t seem like the best fit for Legette’s skillset though.
Got him at 3.01. Crazy stuff
I just took Legette at the 2.07. He is being very much disrespected. I feel like Bryce Young is going to take a leap forward with the vastly improved offense.
going to bust hard
got him 2.06 and chose him over pearsall simply for what you stated it’s a gamble but most mid to late second picks usually are
This is why you go big brain and sell out to get MHJ, Nabers, and Odunze
^[Sokka-Haiku](https://www.reddit.com/r/SokkaHaikuBot/comments/15kyv9r/what_is_a_sokka_haiku/) ^by ^Bingbongerl: *This is why you go* *Big brain and sell out to get* *MHJ, Nabers, and Odunze* --- ^Remember ^that ^one ^time ^Sokka ^accidentally ^used ^an ^extra ^syllable ^in ^that ^Haiku ^Battle ^in ^Ba ^Sing ^Se? ^That ^was ^a ^Sokka ^Haiku ^and ^you ^just ^made ^one.
A first round WR in the back half of the 2nd round is a smash every single time for me I don't care how much I don't like the profile In one league I had to trade into 2.12 to get him it's bananas to me
Tbh I think he's one of the more guaranteed busts of this class
10 team SF PPR Take Legette or trade away 3.03 for Zamir White?
A guy with Legette’s upside is worth the risk at mid 2nd round ADP.
Why you’re in on Xavier Legette: You drafted him and you’re hoping for the best.
Doing the opposite of this sub always works. So pass on Leggett
Most of this sub is avoiding Lagette, but overall, nothing is sillier than people pretending that this entire community shares the same opinions
Totally agree.
On behalf of this entire sub, we all agree with you.
"We're all individuals!"
But if you have a differing opinion and then suck on these downvotes!
Wow, what a helpful comment! This will be great if you go comment this on every post. I'm sure people that made an actual effort to put something interesting and engaging for others to read will love it! Maybe next you can go comment this on the "Legette is a bust" posts to hedge your bets lol
I don't trust the team that drafted him. They drafted the same 3 WRs in TMJ, Mingo, and now Leggette. 1 year breakouts who are great athletes. They don't seem to be able to develop these guys or give them enough chance after 1 season.
I rather bank on Johnson lol
Johnson is insanely underhyped. WR8 in PPR with the corpse of big ben at QB. Kenny "can't even throw 1 TD per game" pickett somehow made people think that Diontae is a quitter though. Utterly ridiculous.
Johnson and Legette have complementary skill sets. They can both produce if Bryce (and the whole offense in general) improves. I’m not completely sold on Bryce, but between hiring Canales, reworking the O-line, and drafting 3 skill players in the first 4 rounds, they’re at least trying to put him in a much, much better spot to succeed.
I agree with the first sentence, but read the comments. This sub is out on Legette, so go get him. LOL.
I actually believe he could be good but hate that he’ll be 29 after his rookie contract if they decide to tag him for 1yr
Calvin Ridley 2
you talk about how the guys around legette in drafts all having poor analytical profiles, which i agree through 11 rookie drafts i own 0 legette, polk, pearsall, and wilson. i had 1 coleman and he was off my roster before my next pick which was 2 picks later. i have 1 mitchell i got at 2.12 in SF which i am actively shopping. there are all misses for me. i would rather benson or sliding back for lloyd/sinnott and getting 3rds on top. gimme lloyd/sinnott with a baker/walker/cowing over any of the guys above by themselves
I think it's fair if you want to be totally out on R2 WRs. The RBs there are interesting too, but I like Legette because unlike the other R2 WRs, he has tantalizing upside. And the other R2 WRs have boring, bad, typical production profiles that look like a bust, whereas Legette has a bizarre, bananas, unheard of production profile that looks bad on the surface, but we've never seen before, so I'm a lot less confident calling him a bust based on that profile
i think im perfectly okay with calling him a bust on the basis that he produced less than 200 yards as a senior on a mid level team and appeared in every game the team played. finishing 10th in receiving yards on your team in a full season as a senior is not something im chasing. interestingly enough, without covid he may not have even gotten a fifth year to have his good season. i will say i do see the appeal in the late 2nd round but he has not slipped that far in any of my leagues where i had late 2s
Treylon Burks regen. Need people like you in my league so I get falling value
Someone in my league traded up with their 2.03 and 25 first round to 1.11 to take Ladd McConkey. Think I rather stay put and take Legette
Bust especially with that bust of a QB
Someone sent that video of him talking at the presser.. good thing I didn't land him anywhere