If London finishes outside the top 20 WRs with Kirk, his value will definitely take a dip. It seems like his value has held steady since he was drafted, just waiting for this season to see how he does with a decent QB.
As a London owner and staunch believer, if he doesn’t finish that high I don’t know how I can justify to continue being high on him. Unless the QB play somehow gets worse, he’s going into year 3 and should be able to outperform bad QB similar to what Wilson has done. If he can’t do that then he just doesn’t have what the other guys do.
Anything other than 23 year old top 5 WR after breaking the rookie record at 22=Bust
Same sub: Also not worth 1.1 this year over a guy who we would jizz if he did that.
His trade value seems to be all over the place. In the 3 leagues I'm in I've gotten asking prices ranging from multiple 1sts and a starting RB to 1.06 in a 10 man SF(which I promptly accepted).
Nabers actually fell to me at 6. I made the trade on the clock and was set to take him there until I got that offer. Easy accept for me. Guy was worried about Puka's future QB situation and had rookie fever
Puka isn’t an off-season darling from what I can tell. He’s beneath some actual rookies and a bunch of people and podcasts are proclaiming him over valued. I don’t really understand it and will continue to buy unless he hits the JJ tier. He looks like a tier 1 receiver to me and his production was record breaking. I have him being elite in every aspect of the position with no significant weaknesses. Stafford and McVay departures should coincide with Kupp departing or declining, so I think he’s a long term WR1 with WR2 floor.
I agree with everything you are saying. I was responding to whose value could fall - and I feel if he has a really good season, people are still going to look to find flaws
Elite body control, impeccable and extremely strong hands. His best trait however is the fact that he breaks at least one tackle after every catch. Just because I am not impressed by his route running does not in any way mean I am unimpressed by him. Stafford allows WRs like him to shine due to his otherworldly accuracy, but that doesn’t make Puka a fraud. He is THE receiver that would thrive in the situation he’s in.
You're right, but you have to consider that Stafford is far close to retirement than someone who isn't, you know, 36 and has a body held together by duct tape at this point. And McVay might hang it up when Stafford and Kupp retire. He's already lost Donald this off-season. Once Stafford goes, really, the Rams are in for a full rebuild, and McVay might not want to stick around. And regardless of McVay, Stafford is *the* QB you want for a fantasy WR. He was the QB for the greatest WR season of all-time and the closest any player has gotten to 2,000 yards. He made the NFL think Kenny Golladay was a WR1. The next guy won't be as good for fantasy.
Nearly every WR is QB dependent, which is why it’s weird to single out Puka as if it’s a unique knock on him. Situations often change unpredictably so until Stafford or McVay actually retire I don’t see the point in projecting it
Also, Stafford is 50% responsible for 2 of the other greatest WR seasons ever. It's not like he's even a "regular" above average quarterback (if there is such a thing), Stafford is known for helping his guys reach their peak. Can't be confident that the next guy will do the same thing
Definitely, Stafford is great.
It is at least a little bit of a coincidence, though. In 2012 (Megatron’s record year), the Lions set an NFL record for pass attempts yet went 4-12. They couldn’t run the ball and had a miserable defense, so they had no choice but to pass a record-breaking amount.
In 2023 it was arguably a perfect storm of Stafford, McVay, Kupp injury, lack of other receiving threats, a regressing defense, and Puka talent.
The common factors are that Stafford is a very good pocket passing QB, Puka, Kupp, and Calvin Johnson are very good WRs, and for Kupp and Puka’s years McVay is a great OC. Other variables played a role in each case
> Nearly every WR is QB dependent, which is why it’s weird to single out Puka as if it’s a unique knock on him.
This is why imo Chase is the WR1 in a Startup draft right now since he is one of the only WR going in the top 3 rounds who is set with his QB.
The only other star WRs I'd argue is "set" with their QB's are Amon Ra with Goff and AJ Brown with Hurts.
So say Derek carr was the QB last year. Obviously you'd expect at least a 10% dropoff just cause he is a worse QB but why else would Puka suddenly fall apart? Would he start passing to Tyler Higbee way more? What actual reason do you have besides Stafford having played with other all time great wrs?
McVay leaving sure that could be an issue.
If you think Carr would only be a 10% decrease then you aren't fimilar with Stafford history
The guy sholses a WR and feeds them, look at tutu atwell to start the year
I'm familiar with his passing yards from this year. He was also supporting DeMarcus Robinson as a low level flex play while having Kupp and Puka at an elite level so idk how you can say he was hyper targeting just two guys.
Owning him right now is more stressful than I thought it would be. I’m open for trading him given what his value is at right now but I also can’t pull trig cause of the potential for him to be this generational talent. That being said I can see many ways his value comes back to earth. Like a WR2 season or if mcvay or stafford retire after next season I can see his value plummeting
Idk if his value would really fall that much, more of just the little bit of shuffling that we do every season. That stat line would put him as a low WR1/high WR2 depending on receptions (likely closer to low WR1 since he gets hypertargeted). I think another top 15 WR season might just cement him a bit more. He’s WR6 on KTC. I could see him falling behind any of Wilson, London, Olave, and Nabers if they out produce him but I doubt he’s the #5 of that group. I think he’d stay clear of AJB, Tyreek, Waddle, Aiyuk, and Pittman with a top 15 WR season.
He just went at the 2.12 and 3.01 in the 2 12 team SF startups I just did and I think people are nuts. I have him in 2 other leagues and if anyone offered me remotely close to that value I'd jump on it in a second.
I see stroud as the most likely candidate. It’s not that I believe he will be bad or unusable, but he’s being valued anywhere from the top qb to top 4, it’s going to be difficult for him to get a top 5 finish that would justify that ranking.
Stroud will be interesting this year for sure. There’s a whole year of film on him now to dissect and pick apart. We’ll see if defensive coordinators can figure out a game plan for him. Ofc if he’s in the territory of the truly elite it won’t even matter
I doubt it. Stroud was one of the smartest players on the field and was making incredible high IQ plays for a rookie. Don't think with the way he was playing and his playstyle that he's gonna regress
I think a slight regression is realistic. Texans have a tougher strength of schedule, there is more tape out on him, and some teams did pretty well to contain him and take away the explosive plays.
He did struggle in the 2nd half of big games in college though sometimes (Michigan 2x, Oregon, & Georgia are all good examples of him struggling to make adjustments to elite teams or defenses adapting mid game.)
So it wouldn't surprise me to see NFL coaches and defenses figure him out a bit more and I'm curious to see if he adapts.
Oh yeah he’s great. Top 10 qb and the weapons being young ascending dudes makes him a really viable asset. Just think the hype is off. Same with Jordan Love. I don’t think either take some leap into a Lamar Jackson or 20-22 Mahomes kind of TD machine.
Nah I think he needs at least 1-2 top 3 or so finishes to justify being the 1.03 in a startup. You expect guys in that range to have QB1 overall upside. If all he’s giving you is top 8 there’s no reason to take him over Hurts or Lamar. Even Burrow and Herbert have produced top 3 finishes.
Mahomes has two 1st overall QB seasons, Allen has 3 (these two make up 5 of the past 6 QB1 overall seasons). Each one has a "worst" full season as being QB8.
Stroud you could argue should be 1.02 or 1.03 if the NFL redrafted from scratch, but in fantasy he's definitely being overvalued. Hurts and Lamar can contend for QB1 overall, If Richardson can stay healthy for a full season (big if right now) he likely deserves to be taken above Stroud. Alongside Burrow, Herbert, Murray seems about the range where he should go.
Lawrence has been riding off draft position a bit for years. Stroud outplayed him as a rookie. I don’t really understand the comparison you’re trying to make.
Agreed. If Caleb or Richardson finish top 5 he probably loses a spot to one of them if he doesn’t as well but that’s what my necessarily qualifier was for.
Yup, half a season production and he's on a team that just drafted the best WR prospect in years. He could be good, but valued between devonta smith and pittman? Gonna be a no from me dawg
Yeah, something I've been learning recently and trying to be better about recognizing, is that a good NFL player is not always a good fantasy player. And a promising young player is not always ready to be an elite fantasy asset right now
Kyler loves his tight ends. Ertz was about to set our yards record and finished tight end 3. That was with dhop on the team. I’d be shocked to see mcbride finish anything less then top 5. Dude is a stud and has a qb that loves to feed him the ball.
Yeah, dude went absolutely nuts from week 8 onwards. He was a top 3 TE in 4/10 weeks, and finished top 7 or higher in 7/10 weeks. Even in the 3 weeks he didn’t finish top 10 he put up double digit points. I think people don’t understand how dominant he was, and MHJ isn’t going to suck up all the production. Even if he regresses he’ll still be incredible. I’m extremely bitter that I have 0 shares of him across any of my leagues
He’ll probably fall in line with what Ertz did for most of his career outside his insane 2018. Like 80-900-5.
But I think most people will still see that as a disappointment even though it’s extremely good.
I think Zamir White is a huge sell. Day 3 RBs who get the starting job purely because there's nobody real on the team don't stick around often. The ones that do stick around (Aaron Jones, Ekeler, etc.) are not just good players, they're elite. The bar for White being a long term piece is really high. White looked ok, not bad last season but doesn't do anything special imo. He's very very far below that incredibly high bar. He'll get volume but it could easily be a Mattison situation last year where a mediocre player with volume ends up being a TD dependent flex.
I'll bet against this profile at this value 100% of the time. He was a great draft pick but the idea is to cash out on these guys because they're so unlikely to be difference makers. There's 6-7 RBs ranked below him on KTC that I'd rather have by a wide margin.
Guy in my league sent his own 2024 1st for Pierce last summer that became the 1.04 this year. He was a bubble team trying to get some help at RB for a push and thought Pierce was the clear starter for the Texans. That one was satisfying to be right on when I flamed him for paying that much for a backup RB
I’m still bitter about Dameon flaming out.
He was my guy in that draft and I felt so vindicated after his rookie year.
The thing is, he looked legitimately good and generated yardage against stacked boxes on a truly terrible run blocking team.
I thought he was going to take a leap, especially because a respectable passing game would force defenses to play them honestly.
Demeco Ryans has talked about Dameon “being in a better head space this year” so I’m hoping his issues were more off the field than anything related to talent.
He also had one of the best pass blocking grades in the league despite his struggles so I’m hoping that gets him on the field more.
All that being said, he’s my RB4 so I’m not relying on him for anything this year
That one's not so bad. Mostert was entering his age 31 season and is known for being injury prone, nobody had him as an RB1 going into the season. Missing on Rice hurts too despite the off field problems. Could have just as easily turned into one of Mingo/Mayer/Downs/Bigsby instead
Sure, on KTC below him I'd rather have Javonte, Najee, Brian Robinson for sure. To me, those three are cut and dry not close. I'd also probably take all of Moss, Spears, Pollard, and Monty, but those are closer.
I also like Diontae Johnson and Marquise Brown way more than Zamir and they're only valued slightly higher than him on KTC.
Owners of Najee, Brob, Javonte, Diontae, and Hollywood would be the guys I'd reach out to first.
Are you high on Brob even with Ekeler? Someone offered me Brob + a late 2026 1st for Pitts (non-TEP). I already have Kincaid so it’s not like I need Pitts, but I’d hate to let Pitts go and watch him boom while Brob is meh.
Ekeler is 29 and looked bad last year. Odds are he looks materially worse this year because that's how RB declines go. He doesn't really factor in much into any of my thinking at this point.
I'd probably make that trade but I would understand not doing it as well. Gotta wait a long time for that 26 first to be relevant.
Hmm, good points. I was coming here to say 'I'm buying' but I didn't realize how high Zamir had risen. You're right that I'd take most of the players you highlighted that are below him over Zamir.
What's crazy efficiency to you? I almost feel like he gets punished sometimes for having *too* high a YPC. Reminds me a bit of the discourse in 2018 following Kamara's ROTY season where he had 6 YPC.
Wow. I'm surprised that the owner didn't take a swing at Bijan, Breece Hall or CMC (if they are a contender) if they were willing to trade away that much draft capital.
He came to me with that offer and it was an instant accept tbh. I was in no shape to compete as well so this was probly the peak value I could've gotten. Unless achane goes nuclear this year
Actually my whole comment was about not expecting him to be able to keep up that off the charts efficiency. He can probably still be efficient but I think it will very much be on the chart.
I think the point is that he doesn’t need a bigger workload because he gives efficient production. He can split with Mostert and still give week-winning performances. People high on Achane aren’t projecting bellcow volume
If KTC is to be believed i am taking most of the guys 5-7 spots below him over him. I’d be ecstatic to “tier down” to Brooks. Better prospect, 3 down back, and has the backfield all to himself
Agree - just doesn’t seem like the type to be able to handle the workload that his price indicates he can handle. He’s awesome and super fun, but as a dynasty RB he’s one of the riskier assets to be holding imo
Very varying levels. Compared to say Jonathan Taylor. You know Taylor is going to get 15-20 carries a game and most of the goal line work with no one really pushing him for snaps. Achane will still have some Mostert and Wright chipping in. Achane is, ideally, a 10-12 carry guy and likely needs to break a long td to score. He did that alot last year. Will that keep up? Also this team can score fast and from anywhere so it's harder to predict things on a week by week basis
You said "aren't all rbs risky assets to own". They all have risk but it's variable is my point. Like Taylor has the injury history And I've seen places with Taylor 4-7 and I've seen Achane as high as 5 and around 6-8 for startup rb values. They're fairly close.
Can swap out Taylor for Saquon and it'd be fairly similar but the risk of Hurts. More saying I'd take the risk on guys who are looking at lionshare of the work like a Saquon or Etienne, Kenneth Walker or Kyren. I'd go Achane when it gets to James Cook, Rachaad White and Jacobs/Pacheco
Agree that neither back can handle those workloads, and I’m not buying Gibbs at his price for that reason, but achane couldn’t stay healthy this past year, and if you look at the average touches per game Gibbs could handle more than Achane. Ultimately though, Gibbs high DC makes him a great deal safer imo
I think there's a pretty good chance that the efficiency and injury concerns are connected. He's efficient because he's small, fast, and runs aggressively. Those same things make him more prone to injury than other RBs.
Christian Watson is the opposite of an off-season darling lol Everyone seems to hate him. If anything, he is a guy that I want to bet on because everyone is so out on him.
I think that LaPorta and Stroud are pretty obvious regression candidates. Pitts, London, and Olave are on a house of cards with their value too. If they do not produce this year, they will tumble in value. Same with Gwill, tbh
Because 1000-1100 yard 4-5td wr seasons are pretty common
He’s valued as a game changing talent that tilts the matchup in your favor, yet hasn’t produced much points above replacement value
I strongly disagree that the 23 y/o dynasty WR11 producing as the WR16 overall is a house of cards. He’s only valued 5 spots ahead of what he’s producing and that’s easily explained by his age. Wilson (dynasty WR7 vs WR26 in scoring) and London (dynasty WR14 vs WR37 in scoring) are actual examples of houses of cards with massive discrepancies in their values and production respectively.
Additionally, if you play in a 3WR/2flex league which is pretty standard, “replacement level production” would be closer to the WR48 (without getting too deep into the RB vs WR production for the last flex spot). Olave posted 231 points and the WR48 posted 150 points. That’s very far above replacement level.
I’ll go with a different Packers WR that’s getting plenty of hype on this sub with Dontayvion Wicks. Lot of people have been excited from what he has shown and understandably so, but there’s a lot of mouths to feed especially if Christian Watson stays healthy this season. Not saying he will or won’t bust for sure, but he seems like a potential bust relative to his current price.
I think he’s one of those guys where there’s no point in the owner selling for a random future 2nd that *might* be as promising as Wicks, but also it’s understandable that you’re not going to pay a 1st. Hence most of these trades won’t happen. It might be easier to trade a 2nd for him during the draft so the other manager at least can assess who they would pick if they accept the trade (taking out the random future pick factor from the equation).
Now that analysts are hyping him up people are going to be disappointed by him this year. He has a very bright future (and he’s the youngest player on the entire offense) but I don’t think his snaps will go up dramatically unless he fully overtakes Romeo Doubs as the primary X receiver. Doubs only has that role because of his seniority, but he also balled out in the playoffs so I don’t think they will be dying to cut his playtime. In two years when Doubs and Watson are free agents and Wicks is hitting his prime, the investment will pay off
I think Amon-Ra and Puka are both great players, but I feel like both will have worse seasons than they did last year. If I could turn either into AJ Brown+ something I would definitely do that.
I would be shocked if anyone paid AJB+ for either of those guys. They’re all in roughly the same tier for me. Puka probably has the lowest floor, but a similar ceiling than ajb and arsb
Yeah I was just basing it on sleeper ADP and KTC value. There is a pretty noticeable gap between Amon-Ra and AJB, so if I could get AJB plus another asset I’d do it.
For Puka, I’d take AJB straight up and Puka is valued higher, so that’s where I was coming from
What’s the hang up on Amon Ra? He’s the clear alpha in DET, has finished as WR7 and WR3 the past two years, and just got the bag. He also doesn’t have any new target competition and has a QB who plays exactly to his strengths. Barring injury, I don’t see any reason why he wouldn’t be a top 12 WR again this year.
Yeah agreed he will be a top 12 WR. It’s just really hard to repeat a 1500 yard season. I would value AJ Brown similarly, so if there’s people that would give me AJ Brown plus another starter for Amon Ra I would do it. I don’t see them in different tiers like the ADP difference would suggest
Agree with Puka, but strongly disagree with Amron-Ra. Barring injury he’ll be just as good if not better this year. Goff loves him and gives him so many targets per game. They have such a special connection. The Lions didn’t add any receivers that change that dynamic. If anything I see other teams adjusting to Laporta, which would increase his targets further.
I may be an outlier, but I think he has a phenomenal chance to be the WR1 in fantasy next year barring injury.
Puka maybe I could see the risk argument for (no target competition, only 1 year of production, etc) but I’d need a decent amount on top of Amon-Ra to move to AJB. He just got re-signed to a team that brought in no new target competition after finishing as WR3.
What do you mean by weird spot? Aside from Andrews he's easily the 2nd target in what should be a valuable offense, even though it's run heavy. Lamar is an underrated passer. They didn't really bring in anyone else to compete for targets, Henry isn't the best pass catching back. WR 2 and 3 are Bateman and Agholor.
I just mean his value is in a weird spot. I agree with everything you said, and on top of that he had a pretty damn promising rookie season. You would think a 2nd year WR coming off of a good season while being the clear WR1 on his team would be a more coveted player but at last in my experience it seems like no one really believes that he’s going to take the next step
I had both him and Addison in one league and was shopping both of them because I have 9 startable WRs lol. I was kind of surprised when I got tons of hits on Addison but only one person asked about Zay and all they offered was a late second. Happy to hold Zay since I prefer him to Addison so I’m not complaining, but I was surprised at how big of a gap there seems to be in their value. This is of course anecdotal and may not be the case for other leagues
I think the weird spot is people think he came into the league hitting his ceiling. He was NFL ready right away and he’s in an offense trying to figure out their passing identity and they just signed one of the biggest RBs in the league. I have Flowers and I’m a huge fan of him but I’m not sure his value gets any higher. If they bring in another big receiver it will probably regress.
I really like Flowers as a player, I debated hard on trying to buy him this offseason. But the #2 target for a QB who only throws around 3k yards a season has pretty capped fantasy upside
Also I’m not sure I buy into it, but the team has been talking up Bateman pretty heavily this offseason
I mean I guess Christian Watson from this list, but is he really an off-season darling?
My real answer from my own opinion of off-season darlings is Drake London. I think it's very telling that Atlanta brought in Penix and that Cousins is maybe not as healthy as he needs to be. Drake, as talented as he is, will be impacted by poor QB play from Cousins early in the season
No we don't, we've seen some camp throws on social media and that's about it. I'm concerned, as a Cousins owner in every league, that he's not hitting recovery milestones
Out of that list, I would go with Zamir White. A two down runner on a team that will probably be bad. Plus, they brought in Mattison and drafted Laube (an underrated back imo). I would sell Zamir fast if I had him.
I'm going with Warren. People think he's gonna pop off and leave Najee in the dust, but I think that Najee gets used heavily because his contract is up, and I think he absolute kills it, because his contract is up. He's Josh Jacobs from 2 years ago
I don’t think Najee is a Jacobs level talent but I also don’t think Warren is just gonna supplant Najee as the 1A.
I have a feeling both will be fantasy relevant with top 24 finishes
I could be wrong (obviously), but I think the Bills will spread the ball around a bit too much until a WR emerges—and if a WR doesn’t emerge, I think Kincaid gets game planned out by the D.
I don’t think Kincaid will truly *bust* per se, but people seem to have him pegged as a top shelf TE when I think he’ll simply be in that large middle tier.
For me it’s easily stroud. I’ve seen him in conversations around Mahomes and Allen. Correct me if my stats are wrong, but Stroud had 6 games over 20 fantasy points. He was #11 for QBs with dropping a 50 bomb. In redraft he’s going currently (granted it’s may) around pick 46 according to fantasypros.
Ahead of guys like Richardson (pick 52, granted he’s a gamble but the rushing upside is insane when he was on the field), Burrow (pick 56), Love (pick 60), Dak (pick 62), Kyler (pick 68), Goff (pick 95), Herbert (pick 96), T Law (pick 103), Cousins (pick 113), Stafford (pick 117), Baker (pick 130).
Honestly give me any of these at their value over Stroud in the fourth round. Not saying they’ll all be better, but the gap from Allen/hurts/mahomes to stroud, should not be smaller than the gap from stroud to burrow/kyler/love/goff/herbert.
This is redraft, but I think people are expecting too much this upcoming season from him to where his value will definitely fall when he isn’t averaging 25 points per game.
Kind of depends on what you mean by “bust”. If you mean won’t produce at a level commensurate to their value, someone like Stroud is gonna fit into this category because his value is just impossibly high right now. If you mean tank in value though, Stroud is actually fairly insulated here and will be insanely high value even if he has a middling season stat wise.
That being said I think there’s a good chance Pitts fits into both categories. I totally get why his value is where it is, the ceiling is tantalizing. But it’s no guarantee it turns into real numbers this year, and I think if he doesn’t actually produce on the field this year he’s been given enough chances that a lot of people are gonna want out in a hurry.
I unloaded pitts before last seasons started thankfully and recouped some value. I am defining bust solely by adp. So say you take stroud at 1.08 in a startup (random number idk what his really is) and he finishes qb17 on a full season. Thats a bust.
I think zamir, Laporta and stroud are the more likely to dip.
I don’t think zamir can stay healthy for an entire season.
Laporta is great but a lot of mouths to feed and probably sees some regression but finishes top 5.
Stroud is a better real qb than fake qb, no rushing upside and had no run game last year. Adding mixon will likely see some more ground game on their end. Although maybe the 3 headed wr room will just make me look dumb and bomb 50
Tds lol
> This off season, some names of note i’ve seen climb in rankings or discussion include:
>
>Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore CJ Stroud, QB, Houston Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco Christain Watson, WR, Green Bay Zamir White, RB, Las Vegas
Pro tip, if you're putting a list in your comment either put a blank line in between each name or put four spaces at the end. Then it will be formatted properly like this:
Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit
Trey McBride, TE, Arizona
Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore
CJ Stroud, QB, Houston
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco
Christain Watson, WR, Green Bay
Zamir White, RB, Las Vegas
Stroud, whom I love, is NOT a top 5 QB. The fact he's QB3 is mind boggling. I expect qb7 at best and people surely being disappointment with that finish. Super glad I took him at 5 in the rookie draft last year though.
I don’t really think of him as a favorite of this sub. Certainly not like Stroud, Puka, London, Wilson, LaPorta, .etc
If anything, most comments about him are overwhelmingly negative when he gets brought up
London and Pitts. So much hype centred around Kirk coming to town but the man is coming off a torn Achilles in his age 35 season. A lot of analysts are hyping to the falcons as this transformed offense but I think they will underperform
Personally, I thought Penix was the most pro-ready QB this class. I think the hype was because of Kirk but Penix will not have the offense skipping any beats if he’s needed. It’s a homer take, but I absolutely believe they’ll be fine.
If London finishes outside the top 20 WRs with Kirk, his value will definitely take a dip. It seems like his value has held steady since he was drafted, just waiting for this season to see how he does with a decent QB.
As a London owner and staunch believer, if he doesn’t finish that high I don’t know how I can justify to continue being high on him. Unless the QB play somehow gets worse, he’s going into year 3 and should be able to outperform bad QB similar to what Wilson has done. If he can’t do that then he just doesn’t have what the other guys do.
What if Kirk misses time?
Then he needs to produce with the 24 year old QB they drafted at 8 overall
If Puka has 1100 yards and 7 tds and finishes wr15 his value will fall. Which seems silly and also very likely
From the way this sub talks about him, hus value may tank if he's anything short of **the** WR1 /s
Anything other than 23 year old top 5 WR after breaking the rookie record at 22=Bust Same sub: Also not worth 1.1 this year over a guy who we would jizz if he did that.
His trade value seems to be all over the place. In the 3 leagues I'm in I've gotten asking prices ranging from multiple 1sts and a starting RB to 1.06 in a 10 man SF(which I promptly accepted).
So puka for like Rome or bowers? (Assuming Caleb, Daniels, maye, MHJ, and nabers are first 5) w trade for you
Nabers actually fell to me at 6. I made the trade on the clock and was set to take him there until I got that offer. Easy accept for me. Guy was worried about Puka's future QB situation and had rookie fever
Still a good trade imo I like puka a lot
W trade on paper, but it’ll be an L trade
And he majorly underperforms when Kupp is available. Hes going to be a midseason trade target for me
I'd be hyped if I can get a borderline WR1 season out of him like that. Im most worried about durability given his injury history
Puka isn’t an off-season darling from what I can tell. He’s beneath some actual rookies and a bunch of people and podcasts are proclaiming him over valued. I don’t really understand it and will continue to buy unless he hits the JJ tier. He looks like a tier 1 receiver to me and his production was record breaking. I have him being elite in every aspect of the position with no significant weaknesses. Stafford and McVay departures should coincide with Kupp departing or declining, so I think he’s a long term WR1 with WR2 floor.
I agree with everything you are saying. I was responding to whose value could fall - and I feel if he has a really good season, people are still going to look to find flaws
He’s not an elite route runner for sure and he doesn’t have elite speed, just good speed. Other than that sure
So what is he elite at in your view? I genuinely want to understand people who watch him play WR and come away unimpressed.
Elite body control, impeccable and extremely strong hands. His best trait however is the fact that he breaks at least one tackle after every catch. Just because I am not impressed by his route running does not in any way mean I am unimpressed by him. Stafford allows WRs like him to shine due to his otherworldly accuracy, but that doesn’t make Puka a fraud. He is THE receiver that would thrive in the situation he’s in.
Worse if McVay or Stafford retire his value will plummet
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You're right, but you have to consider that Stafford is far close to retirement than someone who isn't, you know, 36 and has a body held together by duct tape at this point. And McVay might hang it up when Stafford and Kupp retire. He's already lost Donald this off-season. Once Stafford goes, really, the Rams are in for a full rebuild, and McVay might not want to stick around. And regardless of McVay, Stafford is *the* QB you want for a fantasy WR. He was the QB for the greatest WR season of all-time and the closest any player has gotten to 2,000 yards. He made the NFL think Kenny Golladay was a WR1. The next guy won't be as good for fantasy.
I mean I didn't say it's gonna happen, just how bad it would be I also disagree, it wouldn't hurt JJ or Chase or Lmab etc nearly as much
It's insane how dependent you people think he is on the 10th highest volume passer
Nearly every WR is QB dependent, which is why it’s weird to single out Puka as if it’s a unique knock on him. Situations often change unpredictably so until Stafford or McVay actually retire I don’t see the point in projecting it
Also, Stafford is 50% responsible for 2 of the other greatest WR seasons ever. It's not like he's even a "regular" above average quarterback (if there is such a thing), Stafford is known for helping his guys reach their peak. Can't be confident that the next guy will do the same thing
Stafford made people think Golloday was a WR1.
Definitely, Stafford is great. It is at least a little bit of a coincidence, though. In 2012 (Megatron’s record year), the Lions set an NFL record for pass attempts yet went 4-12. They couldn’t run the ball and had a miserable defense, so they had no choice but to pass a record-breaking amount. In 2023 it was arguably a perfect storm of Stafford, McVay, Kupp injury, lack of other receiving threats, a regressing defense, and Puka talent. The common factors are that Stafford is a very good pocket passing QB, Puka, Kupp, and Calvin Johnson are very good WRs, and for Kupp and Puka’s years McVay is a great OC. Other variables played a role in each case
> Nearly every WR is QB dependent, which is why it’s weird to single out Puka as if it’s a unique knock on him. This is why imo Chase is the WR1 in a Startup draft right now since he is one of the only WR going in the top 3 rounds who is set with his QB. The only other star WRs I'd argue is "set" with their QB's are Amon Ra with Goff and AJ Brown with Hurts.
Stafford and McVay both have a very proven history of making wrs, so yes, I do believe that very much
So say Derek carr was the QB last year. Obviously you'd expect at least a 10% dropoff just cause he is a worse QB but why else would Puka suddenly fall apart? Would he start passing to Tyler Higbee way more? What actual reason do you have besides Stafford having played with other all time great wrs? McVay leaving sure that could be an issue.
If you think Carr would only be a 10% decrease then you aren't fimilar with Stafford history The guy sholses a WR and feeds them, look at tutu atwell to start the year
I'm familiar with his passing yards from this year. He was also supporting DeMarcus Robinson as a low level flex play while having Kupp and Puka at an elite level so idk how you can say he was hyper targeting just two guys.
Owning him right now is more stressful than I thought it would be. I’m open for trading him given what his value is at right now but I also can’t pull trig cause of the potential for him to be this generational talent. That being said I can see many ways his value comes back to earth. Like a WR2 season or if mcvay or stafford retire after next season I can see his value plummeting
Enjoy the ride. When you picked him up last year you’d have been happy with even 700 yds.
Idk if his value would really fall that much, more of just the little bit of shuffling that we do every season. That stat line would put him as a low WR1/high WR2 depending on receptions (likely closer to low WR1 since he gets hypertargeted). I think another top 15 WR season might just cement him a bit more. He’s WR6 on KTC. I could see him falling behind any of Wilson, London, Olave, and Nabers if they out produce him but I doubt he’s the #5 of that group. I think he’d stay clear of AJB, Tyreek, Waddle, Aiyuk, and Pittman with a top 15 WR season.
He just went at the 2.12 and 3.01 in the 2 12 team SF startups I just did and I think people are nuts. I have him in 2 other leagues and if anyone offered me remotely close to that value I'd jump on it in a second.
Drafted puka in sf Startup at 3.02 it's not that crazy
I see stroud as the most likely candidate. It’s not that I believe he will be bad or unusable, but he’s being valued anywhere from the top qb to top 4, it’s going to be difficult for him to get a top 5 finish that would justify that ranking.
Stroud will be interesting this year for sure. There’s a whole year of film on him now to dissect and pick apart. We’ll see if defensive coordinators can figure out a game plan for him. Ofc if he’s in the territory of the truly elite it won’t even matter
More importantly last place schedule to first.
Stroud and Love seem to each be in basically the same spot despite having maybe 5 QB's between them in the rankings
I doubt it. Stroud was one of the smartest players on the field and was making incredible high IQ plays for a rookie. Don't think with the way he was playing and his playstyle that he's gonna regress
I think a slight regression is realistic. Texans have a tougher strength of schedule, there is more tape out on him, and some teams did pretty well to contain him and take away the explosive plays.
I agree with some regression but I also believe he is a great QB and a great competitor. Some people just have that “it” factor and I think he has it.
He did struggle in the 2nd half of big games in college though sometimes (Michigan 2x, Oregon, & Georgia are all good examples of him struggling to make adjustments to elite teams or defenses adapting mid game.) So it wouldn't surprise me to see NFL coaches and defenses figure him out a bit more and I'm curious to see if he adapts.
Oh yeah he’s great. Top 10 qb and the weapons being young ascending dudes makes him a really viable asset. Just think the hype is off. Same with Jordan Love. I don’t think either take some leap into a Lamar Jackson or 20-22 Mahomes kind of TD machine.
Stroud is 22. He doesn’t necessarily need a top 5 finish to hold value.
When his current value is like the 1.03 in some SF startups he’s almost certainly going to “lose” value
If stroud finishes in the top 8ish or so multiple times over the next many years than I would justify him as the 1.03 in SF
Nah I think he needs at least 1-2 top 3 or so finishes to justify being the 1.03 in a startup. You expect guys in that range to have QB1 overall upside. If all he’s giving you is top 8 there’s no reason to take him over Hurts or Lamar. Even Burrow and Herbert have produced top 3 finishes.
Yep. Mahomes and Allen have had multiple top 5 seasons I believe. Allen I think has had many top 2-3
Mahomes has two 1st overall QB seasons, Allen has 3 (these two make up 5 of the past 6 QB1 overall seasons). Each one has a "worst" full season as being QB8. Stroud you could argue should be 1.02 or 1.03 if the NFL redrafted from scratch, but in fantasy he's definitely being overvalued. Hurts and Lamar can contend for QB1 overall, If Richardson can stay healthy for a full season (big if right now) he likely deserves to be taken above Stroud. Alongside Burrow, Herbert, Murray seems about the range where he should go.
Agreed. I haven’t seen stroud outside the top 3 really. Blows my mind.
I disagree when the alternatives of Hurts/Lamar could easily finish top 3 multiple times over the next several years.
Trevor Lawrence didn’t lose any value?
Lawrence has been riding off draft position a bit for years. Stroud outplayed him as a rookie. I don’t really understand the comparison you’re trying to make.
T law has been very Jared Goff esque in terms of performance, with very mediocre weapons. I think he’ll be a stud
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Agreed. If Caleb or Richardson finish top 5 he probably loses a spot to one of them if he doesn’t as well but that’s what my necessarily qualifier was for.
You can inject this into my veins as a chargers fan who is sad to see Herbert slide in rankings
As a Herbert fan, I’ve been happy for the slide and being able to get him later in startup drafts. I think people are sleeping on him.
Kind of a perfect example of how the slide could occur
I have the colts winning the south this year!
I think McBride is a great call out. I think he has a bright future, but the elite TE production that most are expecting might not happen next year.
Yup, half a season production and he's on a team that just drafted the best WR prospect in years. He could be good, but valued between devonta smith and pittman? Gonna be a no from me dawg
Yeah, something I've been learning recently and trying to be better about recognizing, is that a good NFL player is not always a good fantasy player. And a promising young player is not always ready to be an elite fantasy asset right now
Kyler loves his tight ends. Ertz was about to set our yards record and finished tight end 3. That was with dhop on the team. I’d be shocked to see mcbride finish anything less then top 5. Dude is a stud and has a qb that loves to feed him the ball.
Yeah, dude went absolutely nuts from week 8 onwards. He was a top 3 TE in 4/10 weeks, and finished top 7 or higher in 7/10 weeks. Even in the 3 weeks he didn’t finish top 10 he put up double digit points. I think people don’t understand how dominant he was, and MHJ isn’t going to suck up all the production. Even if he regresses he’ll still be incredible. I’m extremely bitter that I have 0 shares of him across any of my leagues
Got him for free in my main league. During his draft “he sucks and ertz will be there for 5 years” love the benefits I’m reaping now.
He’ll probably fall in line with what Ertz did for most of his career outside his insane 2018. Like 80-900-5. But I think most people will still see that as a disappointment even though it’s extremely good.
Traded him for Rome, pretty happy about it
Unless that’s TEP I love that for you
Not tep :)
I think Zamir White is a huge sell. Day 3 RBs who get the starting job purely because there's nobody real on the team don't stick around often. The ones that do stick around (Aaron Jones, Ekeler, etc.) are not just good players, they're elite. The bar for White being a long term piece is really high. White looked ok, not bad last season but doesn't do anything special imo. He's very very far below that incredibly high bar. He'll get volume but it could easily be a Mattison situation last year where a mediocre player with volume ends up being a TD dependent flex. I'll bet against this profile at this value 100% of the time. He was a great draft pick but the idea is to cash out on these guys because they're so unlikely to be difference makers. There's 6-7 RBs ranked below him on KTC that I'd rather have by a wide margin.
Yup, this is the exact same process that many people were able to cash out on Dameon Pierce, Elijah Mitchell, Antonio Gibson for example.
Guy in my league sent his own 2024 1st for Pierce last summer that became the 1.04 this year. He was a bubble team trying to get some help at RB for a push and thought Pierce was the clear starter for the Texans. That one was satisfying to be right on when I flamed him for paying that much for a backup RB
I’m still bitter about Dameon flaming out. He was my guy in that draft and I felt so vindicated after his rookie year. The thing is, he looked legitimately good and generated yardage against stacked boxes on a truly terrible run blocking team. I thought he was going to take a leap, especially because a respectable passing game would force defenses to play them honestly. Demeco Ryans has talked about Dameon “being in a better head space this year” so I’m hoping his issues were more off the field than anything related to talent. He also had one of the best pass blocking grades in the league despite his struggles so I’m hoping that gets him on the field more. All that being said, he’s my RB4 so I’m not relying on him for anything this year
I got the '25 first last off-season + Dalvin for him... Obviously Dalvin busted but happy I sold!
That's a win for you
Maybe I had rose colored glasses, I declined mostert and a second lol. Granted at the time that seemed like good process, that second became rice
That one's not so bad. Mostert was entering his age 31 season and is known for being injury prone, nobody had him as an RB1 going into the season. Missing on Rice hurts too despite the off field problems. Could have just as easily turned into one of Mingo/Mayer/Downs/Bigsby instead
But Zamir is different right? Right????
Can you name a few? I ask because I have Zamir and am thinking of moving off him or packaging him to upgrade at rb
Sure, on KTC below him I'd rather have Javonte, Najee, Brian Robinson for sure. To me, those three are cut and dry not close. I'd also probably take all of Moss, Spears, Pollard, and Monty, but those are closer. I also like Diontae Johnson and Marquise Brown way more than Zamir and they're only valued slightly higher than him on KTC. Owners of Najee, Brob, Javonte, Diontae, and Hollywood would be the guys I'd reach out to first.
Are you high on Brob even with Ekeler? Someone offered me Brob + a late 2026 1st for Pitts (non-TEP). I already have Kincaid so it’s not like I need Pitts, but I’d hate to let Pitts go and watch him boom while Brob is meh.
Ekeler is 29 and looked bad last year. Odds are he looks materially worse this year because that's how RB declines go. He doesn't really factor in much into any of my thinking at this point. I'd probably make that trade but I would understand not doing it as well. Gotta wait a long time for that 26 first to be relevant.
I traded him for Derrick Henry before my rookie draft. (I’m a contender.) Feel really good about it.
Bought him for the 2.09 (Corum) and the 4.03 (Tez Walker) on an RB-needy team. I’ll take even one productive starter season, tbh
Hmm, good points. I was coming here to say 'I'm buying' but I didn't realize how high Zamir had risen. You're right that I'd take most of the players you highlighted that are below him over Zamir.
What would you sell him for?
People are super low on Watson. I'd say he is the 4th most hyped WR in Green Bay.
Achane. I think everyone expects him to have crazy efficiency on a few more touches. I just don't think that will happen, I am out on Achane.
He’s not going to be as efficient at all, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be a good asset.
What's crazy efficiency to you? I almost feel like he gets punished sometimes for having *too* high a YPC. Reminds me a bit of the discourse in 2018 following Kamara's ROTY season where he had 6 YPC.
6 and above
Nah, Achane is #goodatfootball
As an Aggie it broke my heart to sell him
I'm looking to sell him too, what did you get in return?
I sold achane this offseason for 2 25 mid firsts
Holy hell I wish my leaguemates would go for that, I'd sell him for a single first lol
It's 1QB league but still. I sold him to a RB needy team n thankfully he offered that to me lol. I bet you can get something similar honestly
Wow. I'm surprised that the owner didn't take a swing at Bijan, Breece Hall or CMC (if they are a contender) if they were willing to trade away that much draft capital.
He came to me with that offer and it was an instant accept tbh. I was in no shape to compete as well so this was probly the peak value I could've gotten. Unless achane goes nuclear this year
Oh hey it's you again. Howdy. As an Aggie in a league full of Aggies, I wish I could acquire again.
I mean if he can stay healthy all season he will be a monster. His efficiency is off the charts
Actually my whole comment was about not expecting him to be able to keep up that off the charts efficiency. He can probably still be efficient but I think it will very much be on the chart.
Isn't that his point? That he won't sustain his previous efficiency with a bigger workload.
I think the point is that he doesn’t need a bigger workload because he gives efficient production. He can split with Mostert and still give week-winning performances. People high on Achane aren’t projecting bellcow volume
Yeah he’s on the best ball dream team lol
I just want to be validated in the long term for picking Miller over him when they were the two BPAs at my turn in the 2023 draft
W
He'll be an rb 1 if he can stay healthy
Agree! Which RB should I target for Achane? Straight up
If KTC is to be believed i am taking most of the guys 5-7 spots below him over him. I’d be ecstatic to “tier down” to Brooks. Better prospect, 3 down back, and has the backfield all to himself
Agree - just doesn’t seem like the type to be able to handle the workload that his price indicates he can handle. He’s awesome and super fun, but as a dynasty RB he’s one of the riskier assets to be holding imo
Aren’t all RBs risky assets to own?
Very varying levels. Compared to say Jonathan Taylor. You know Taylor is going to get 15-20 carries a game and most of the goal line work with no one really pushing him for snaps. Achane will still have some Mostert and Wright chipping in. Achane is, ideally, a 10-12 carry guy and likely needs to break a long td to score. He did that alot last year. Will that keep up? Also this team can score fast and from anywhere so it's harder to predict things on a week by week basis
What’s the point you’re making? JT is ranked ahead of Achane. Who would you take that is below or at Achane’s tier?
You said "aren't all rbs risky assets to own". They all have risk but it's variable is my point. Like Taylor has the injury history And I've seen places with Taylor 4-7 and I've seen Achane as high as 5 and around 6-8 for startup rb values. They're fairly close. Can swap out Taylor for Saquon and it'd be fairly similar but the risk of Hurts. More saying I'd take the risk on guys who are looking at lionshare of the work like a Saquon or Etienne, Kenneth Walker or Kyren. I'd go Achane when it gets to James Cook, Rachaad White and Jacobs/Pacheco
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Agree that neither back can handle those workloads, and I’m not buying Gibbs at his price for that reason, but achane couldn’t stay healthy this past year, and if you look at the average touches per game Gibbs could handle more than Achane. Ultimately though, Gibbs high DC makes him a great deal safer imo
I’ve changed my mind after listening to the latest fantasy points dynasty podcast - Ryan heath makes a fantastic case for achane
I think there's a pretty good chance that the efficiency and injury concerns are connected. He's efficient because he's small, fast, and runs aggressively. Those same things make him more prone to injury than other RBs.
Christian Watson is the opposite of an off-season darling lol Everyone seems to hate him. If anything, he is a guy that I want to bet on because everyone is so out on him. I think that LaPorta and Stroud are pretty obvious regression candidates. Pitts, London, and Olave are on a house of cards with their value too. If they do not produce this year, they will tumble in value. Same with Gwill, tbh
How is Olave in the same tier as Pitts and London? Olave has produced more than both of these guys both years he’s been in the league.
Because 1000-1100 yard 4-5td wr seasons are pretty common He’s valued as a game changing talent that tilts the matchup in your favor, yet hasn’t produced much points above replacement value
I strongly disagree that the 23 y/o dynasty WR11 producing as the WR16 overall is a house of cards. He’s only valued 5 spots ahead of what he’s producing and that’s easily explained by his age. Wilson (dynasty WR7 vs WR26 in scoring) and London (dynasty WR14 vs WR37 in scoring) are actual examples of houses of cards with massive discrepancies in their values and production respectively. Additionally, if you play in a 3WR/2flex league which is pretty standard, “replacement level production” would be closer to the WR48 (without getting too deep into the RB vs WR production for the last flex spot). Olave posted 231 points and the WR48 posted 150 points. That’s very far above replacement level.
I’ll go with a different Packers WR that’s getting plenty of hype on this sub with Dontayvion Wicks. Lot of people have been excited from what he has shown and understandably so, but there’s a lot of mouths to feed especially if Christian Watson stays healthy this season. Not saying he will or won’t bust for sure, but he seems like a potential bust relative to his current price.
I can’t get Wicks for a 2nd therefore I’m out. If you can grab for less than that buy up because I think he can be a decent flex.
Tried sending a 2nd for him and got shut down....too rich for my blood
I think he’s one of those guys where there’s no point in the owner selling for a random future 2nd that *might* be as promising as Wicks, but also it’s understandable that you’re not going to pay a 1st. Hence most of these trades won’t happen. It might be easier to trade a 2nd for him during the draft so the other manager at least can assess who they would pick if they accept the trade (taking out the random future pick factor from the equation).
Now that analysts are hyping him up people are going to be disappointed by him this year. He has a very bright future (and he’s the youngest player on the entire offense) but I don’t think his snaps will go up dramatically unless he fully overtakes Romeo Doubs as the primary X receiver. Doubs only has that role because of his seniority, but he also balled out in the playoffs so I don’t think they will be dying to cut his playtime. In two years when Doubs and Watson are free agents and Wicks is hitting his prime, the investment will pay off
All the Packers WRs fit this mold tbh
HE IS STILL UNDERVALUED TTYL!
I think Amon-Ra and Puka are both great players, but I feel like both will have worse seasons than they did last year. If I could turn either into AJ Brown+ something I would definitely do that.
I would be shocked if anyone paid AJB+ for either of those guys. They’re all in roughly the same tier for me. Puka probably has the lowest floor, but a similar ceiling than ajb and arsb
Yeah I was just basing it on sleeper ADP and KTC value. There is a pretty noticeable gap between Amon-Ra and AJB, so if I could get AJB plus another asset I’d do it. For Puka, I’d take AJB straight up and Puka is valued higher, so that’s where I was coming from
What’s the hang up on Amon Ra? He’s the clear alpha in DET, has finished as WR7 and WR3 the past two years, and just got the bag. He also doesn’t have any new target competition and has a QB who plays exactly to his strengths. Barring injury, I don’t see any reason why he wouldn’t be a top 12 WR again this year.
Yeah agreed he will be a top 12 WR. It’s just really hard to repeat a 1500 yard season. I would value AJ Brown similarly, so if there’s people that would give me AJ Brown plus another starter for Amon Ra I would do it. I don’t see them in different tiers like the ADP difference would suggest
Why do you think arsb goes down- he just had 60+ targets vacated with no receivers drafted
Only reason is that top 3 back to back is just hard to do, lol.
Agree with Puka, but strongly disagree with Amron-Ra. Barring injury he’ll be just as good if not better this year. Goff loves him and gives him so many targets per game. They have such a special connection. The Lions didn’t add any receivers that change that dynamic. If anything I see other teams adjusting to Laporta, which would increase his targets further. I may be an outlier, but I think he has a phenomenal chance to be the WR1 in fantasy next year barring injury.
Puka maybe I could see the risk argument for (no target competition, only 1 year of production, etc) but I’d need a decent amount on top of Amon-Ra to move to AJB. He just got re-signed to a team that brought in no new target competition after finishing as WR3.
This is just draft cap hating
I’m a AJB owner who thinks he should be valued wr5 in dynasty, same tier as arsb
Is Zay Flowers an offseason darling? Personally don't think he's even hyped enough
Yeah no one really talks about Zay, he’s in a weird spot
What do you mean by weird spot? Aside from Andrews he's easily the 2nd target in what should be a valuable offense, even though it's run heavy. Lamar is an underrated passer. They didn't really bring in anyone else to compete for targets, Henry isn't the best pass catching back. WR 2 and 3 are Bateman and Agholor.
I just mean his value is in a weird spot. I agree with everything you said, and on top of that he had a pretty damn promising rookie season. You would think a 2nd year WR coming off of a good season while being the clear WR1 on his team would be a more coveted player but at last in my experience it seems like no one really believes that he’s going to take the next step
Ah gotcha I see what you mean now. I feel like ADP in redraft makes sense, if a little low. I'm fine with him being a little under the radar.
I had both him and Addison in one league and was shopping both of them because I have 9 startable WRs lol. I was kind of surprised when I got tons of hits on Addison but only one person asked about Zay and all they offered was a late second. Happy to hold Zay since I prefer him to Addison so I’m not complaining, but I was surprised at how big of a gap there seems to be in their value. This is of course anecdotal and may not be the case for other leagues
I think the weird spot is people think he came into the league hitting his ceiling. He was NFL ready right away and he’s in an offense trying to figure out their passing identity and they just signed one of the biggest RBs in the league. I have Flowers and I’m a huge fan of him but I’m not sure his value gets any higher. If they bring in another big receiver it will probably regress.
I really like Flowers as a player, I debated hard on trying to buy him this offseason. But the #2 target for a QB who only throws around 3k yards a season has pretty capped fantasy upside Also I’m not sure I buy into it, but the team has been talking up Bateman pretty heavily this offseason
I mean I guess Christian Watson from this list, but is he really an off-season darling? My real answer from my own opinion of off-season darlings is Drake London. I think it's very telling that Atlanta brought in Penix and that Cousins is maybe not as healthy as he needs to be. Drake, as talented as he is, will be impacted by poor QB play from Cousins early in the season
Do we even know if Cousins is guaranteed to start the season?
No we don't, we've seen some camp throws on social media and that's about it. I'm concerned, as a Cousins owner in every league, that he's not hitting recovery milestones
His hamstrings are symmetrical!!
Out of that list, I would go with Zamir White. A two down runner on a team that will probably be bad. Plus, they brought in Mattison and drafted Laube (an underrated back imo). I would sell Zamir fast if I had him.
I was able to sell him during our draft for 2.02 (10 team). Was eager to get the manager to do the trade as BTJ was still on the board.
I think Worthy may disappoint some people this year.
andy reid rookie wr typically do unless using them is an absolute necessity for the team (e.g. rice, and even he took a while to get going).
Me seeing half my team on this list 😭
Why is LaPorta on this list? Have I missed something?
I'm going with Warren. People think he's gonna pop off and leave Najee in the dust, but I think that Najee gets used heavily because his contract is up, and I think he absolute kills it, because his contract is up. He's Josh Jacobs from 2 years ago
I don’t think Najee is a Jacobs level talent but I also don’t think Warren is just gonna supplant Najee as the 1A. I have a feeling both will be fantasy relevant with top 24 finishes
Jacobs wasn't a Jacobs level talent until his contract year
He was an RB1 in three of his five seasons and the two seasons he wasn’t he didn’t play the full season.
Warren is good and will be part of a committee with Najee. Top 30 RB season incoming with upside for more if Najee misses time.
If Kupp is healthy Puka’s inevitable sophomore slump is gonna tank his value
Probly my whole team cuz that's the way life goes
People are acting like Kincaid is the number one option in Buffalo. I just don’t see it.
Why not?
I could be wrong (obviously), but I think the Bills will spread the ball around a bit too much until a WR emerges—and if a WR doesn’t emerge, I think Kincaid gets game planned out by the D. I don’t think Kincaid will truly *bust* per se, but people seem to have him pegged as a top shelf TE when I think he’ll simply be in that large middle tier.
So potentially one of those guys who is a great real life football player but not a very good fantasy player
Yeah, kind of the opposite of Jake Ferguson ha.
For me it’s easily stroud. I’ve seen him in conversations around Mahomes and Allen. Correct me if my stats are wrong, but Stroud had 6 games over 20 fantasy points. He was #11 for QBs with dropping a 50 bomb. In redraft he’s going currently (granted it’s may) around pick 46 according to fantasypros. Ahead of guys like Richardson (pick 52, granted he’s a gamble but the rushing upside is insane when he was on the field), Burrow (pick 56), Love (pick 60), Dak (pick 62), Kyler (pick 68), Goff (pick 95), Herbert (pick 96), T Law (pick 103), Cousins (pick 113), Stafford (pick 117), Baker (pick 130). Honestly give me any of these at their value over Stroud in the fourth round. Not saying they’ll all be better, but the gap from Allen/hurts/mahomes to stroud, should not be smaller than the gap from stroud to burrow/kyler/love/goff/herbert. This is redraft, but I think people are expecting too much this upcoming season from him to where his value will definitely fall when he isn’t averaging 25 points per game.
Yeah the replacement value for him is wild considering how you can get someone 4 or 5 rounds later that can match or out perform him
Aiyuk is already a WR1 and an all-pro. He’s not an offseason fantasy darling, he’s an actual nfl star already.
Kind of depends on what you mean by “bust”. If you mean won’t produce at a level commensurate to their value, someone like Stroud is gonna fit into this category because his value is just impossibly high right now. If you mean tank in value though, Stroud is actually fairly insulated here and will be insanely high value even if he has a middling season stat wise. That being said I think there’s a good chance Pitts fits into both categories. I totally get why his value is where it is, the ceiling is tantalizing. But it’s no guarantee it turns into real numbers this year, and I think if he doesn’t actually produce on the field this year he’s been given enough chances that a lot of people are gonna want out in a hurry.
I unloaded pitts before last seasons started thankfully and recouped some value. I am defining bust solely by adp. So say you take stroud at 1.08 in a startup (random number idk what his really is) and he finishes qb17 on a full season. Thats a bust.
I think zamir, Laporta and stroud are the more likely to dip. I don’t think zamir can stay healthy for an entire season. Laporta is great but a lot of mouths to feed and probably sees some regression but finishes top 5. Stroud is a better real qb than fake qb, no rushing upside and had no run game last year. Adding mixon will likely see some more ground game on their end. Although maybe the 3 headed wr room will just make me look dumb and bomb 50 Tds lol
> This off season, some names of note i’ve seen climb in rankings or discussion include: > >Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore CJ Stroud, QB, Houston Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco Christain Watson, WR, Green Bay Zamir White, RB, Las Vegas Pro tip, if you're putting a list in your comment either put a blank line in between each name or put four spaces at the end. Then it will be formatted properly like this: Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore CJ Stroud, QB, Houston Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco Christain Watson, WR, Green Bay Zamir White, RB, Las Vegas
Stroud, whom I love, is NOT a top 5 QB. The fact he's QB3 is mind boggling. I expect qb7 at best and people surely being disappointment with that finish. Super glad I took him at 5 in the rookie draft last year though.
Zamir White for me, I’m not touching him.
I think Puka is way too high. I also think Addison could be trouble. For a rookie, put me down for Bowers and maybe worthy
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I don’t really think of him as a favorite of this sub. Certainly not like Stroud, Puka, London, Wilson, LaPorta, .etc If anything, most comments about him are overwhelmingly negative when he gets brought up
I’m for sure gonna bust
Kincaid
London and Pitts. So much hype centred around Kirk coming to town but the man is coming off a torn Achilles in his age 35 season. A lot of analysts are hyping to the falcons as this transformed offense but I think they will underperform
Personally, I thought Penix was the most pro-ready QB this class. I think the hype was because of Kirk but Penix will not have the offense skipping any beats if he’s needed. It’s a homer take, but I absolutely believe they’ll be fine.
Trey McBride. He flashed. And now he’s drafted as TE2?????