You are kind of brushing over the fact that the Rams drafted him, which to me is a big deal. Corum's profile is a trustworthy back that can handle a decent work load. That means a lot to Sean McVay and it shows in the draft capital that they used to acquire Corum. (3rd round iirc)
Sprinkle in that Kyren has had a lot of injuries (even now he has a foot injury) and that Corum's profile is very similar to kyren's but Corum's combine showed that he was bigger and faster... Yeah, I buy into Kyren slipping in FF drafts
I think mostert has the same amount of RB1 and rb2 finishes as Kyren Williams with like 8 more years playing. I don’t think pachecho even has an rb1 finish yet.
Good call out on ekeler though, that was a bad omission
6th round seems to be just about right in my book too. Late 5th early 6th I think there will be guys I like better. In the 7th he’s a steal. So if you want him, and he’s there in the 6th then take him.
I’d be very comfortable taking Kyren in the sixth or seventh round depending on who is available of course. Anything beyond that I feel like you’re passing up value.
He scored 21.2 points per game in PPR leagues last year. If he produces at least 75% of that, he will be at 15.9 points per game, which is still very good. There are more expensive backs who scored around that number. If he produces at 50% of that number, he would be replacement level, and would drop to around a second round evaluation. Anything less than that, Corum has probably taken over the starting role.
Regardless, the range of outcomes really don’t have that much downside outside of Corum becoming the starter, which is impossible to forecast but it is Sean McVay. Kyren should still be a productive player for your dynasty team in 2024, which is what you want from a running back since it’s inherently not a rebuilding position.
I’m low on Kyren but he fell to the 6.05 in a startup I built to contend, so had to pull the trigger on him. If he has a few boom games to start the season I may look to sell, as I think the optimistic outcome is 1 more low RB1 or high RB2 season, and then he’ll go the way of a DiCaprio girlfriend.
people are really fading him hard, but watching him play he was straight-up good. yea his snap rate was high, but he is still going to be the featured back until he shows he isn’t good enough for it. plus he is a damn good pass catcher.
corum was drafted to be his capable backup, not take the starting job
Someone sent me this offer in a 12 tm SF/2 TE bestball league recently:
I got:
* Kyren Williams
* Jaylen Warren
* Dawson Knox
* Desmond Riddler
* '25 2nd
They got:
* Lockett
* Stefon Diggs
* Hunter Henry
* Minshew
I smashed accept lol. My team is young and I am super weak at RB
In Myles Gaskin's best season had just over half of Kyren's 2023 fantasy points. I wouldn't blame someone for fading Kyren necessarily but I don't see how Gaskin is a decent point of analogy at all
On the flip side, this is the list of RBs in the last five years who have had a 20+ ppg PPR season:
Christian McCaffrey
Kyren Williams
Austin Ekeler
Jonathan Taylor
Derrick Henry
Dalvin Cook
this, exactly. Maybe kyren has one more decent season, but the cost of acquisition is so high, and the risk is too much to justify imo. Look at the others going around kyren's adp (using fantasycalc for adp data)...i'd take a risk on the younger achane over him, or more stable assets like devonta smith, nico collins, drake maye just to name a few
100% taking any of the WRs in his range over him. The only 2 strategies I like for RBs are either get a top 4 guy (bijan breece Gibbs cmc) or just get bridge vets like kamara, conner, Henry, etc. and pair them with their young handcuffs like kendre or benson. I hate the mid tier guys
No player price check threads, use r/DynastyFFTradeAdvice or the daily mega thread instead.
The Kyren hate has gotten insane
Corum was a plodder who’s bound to be overdrafted. Until of course he was picked by the Rams. Now he’s fatal to Kyren
You are kind of brushing over the fact that the Rams drafted him, which to me is a big deal. Corum's profile is a trustworthy back that can handle a decent work load. That means a lot to Sean McVay and it shows in the draft capital that they used to acquire Corum. (3rd round iirc) Sprinkle in that Kyren has had a lot of injuries (even now he has a foot injury) and that Corum's profile is very similar to kyren's but Corum's combine showed that he was bigger and faster... Yeah, I buy into Kyren slipping in FF drafts
McVay divorces his RB1 every year. He’s like a serial cheater
Anyone judging Corum on his ‘23 tape is going to be surprised when he takes over the backfield. He’s Kyren+
Bull case: Aaron jones Bear case: every other round 5 or later RBs history. I’d treat him like a high end rb2 personally
Ignoring Ekeler, Pacheco, and Mostert
I think mostert has the same amount of RB1 and rb2 finishes as Kyren Williams with like 8 more years playing. I don’t think pachecho even has an rb1 finish yet. Good call out on ekeler though, that was a bad omission
I’m low, doubt he repeats
I just picked him at 6.06 in a 12-team PPR startup, and I'm pumped about it. As long as he's healthy, I believe he'll continue to eat.
That feels about right!
6th round seems to be just about right in my book too. Late 5th early 6th I think there will be guys I like better. In the 7th he’s a steal. So if you want him, and he’s there in the 6th then take him.
I’d be very comfortable taking Kyren in the sixth or seventh round depending on who is available of course. Anything beyond that I feel like you’re passing up value. He scored 21.2 points per game in PPR leagues last year. If he produces at least 75% of that, he will be at 15.9 points per game, which is still very good. There are more expensive backs who scored around that number. If he produces at 50% of that number, he would be replacement level, and would drop to around a second round evaluation. Anything less than that, Corum has probably taken over the starting role. Regardless, the range of outcomes really don’t have that much downside outside of Corum becoming the starter, which is impossible to forecast but it is Sean McVay. Kyren should still be a productive player for your dynasty team in 2024, which is what you want from a running back since it’s inherently not a rebuilding position.
6-7th round adp is much more appropriate. A bunch of guys worth a "late 1st" with some question marks.
I don’t like his long term value
I think 4th round is rich tbh. RBs have shot up in most recent ADP sites- I'd be comfortable taking him around round 6. Anything lower is a value IMO.
I'm all about the discount in redraft. Scares me a bit much in dynasty startups
I’m low on Kyren but he fell to the 6.05 in a startup I built to contend, so had to pull the trigger on him. If he has a few boom games to start the season I may look to sell, as I think the optimistic outcome is 1 more low RB1 or high RB2 season, and then he’ll go the way of a DiCaprio girlfriend.
people are really fading him hard, but watching him play he was straight-up good. yea his snap rate was high, but he is still going to be the featured back until he shows he isn’t good enough for it. plus he is a damn good pass catcher. corum was drafted to be his capable backup, not take the starting job
Someone sent me this offer in a 12 tm SF/2 TE bestball league recently: I got: * Kyren Williams * Jaylen Warren * Dawson Knox * Desmond Riddler * '25 2nd They got: * Lockett * Stefon Diggs * Hunter Henry * Minshew I smashed accept lol. My team is young and I am super weak at RB
Anyone remember Myles Gaskin and his low end RB1 season he had a few years ago? I'd fade Kyren even at the 6th round price too
In Myles Gaskin's best season had just over half of Kyren's 2023 fantasy points. I wouldn't blame someone for fading Kyren necessarily but I don't see how Gaskin is a decent point of analogy at all
Late round RBs tend to not last long at all. Their good seasons are usually flukes
I'm still hanging onto the same hope I had for Chris Carson. Kyren is good
Kyren is good. So was Carson. So was James Robinson :(
I think j rob would've continued to be decent, but he looked *horrible* after his injury
On the flip side, this is the list of RBs in the last five years who have had a 20+ ppg PPR season: Christian McCaffrey Kyren Williams Austin Ekeler Jonathan Taylor Derrick Henry Dalvin Cook
this, exactly. Maybe kyren has one more decent season, but the cost of acquisition is so high, and the risk is too much to justify imo. Look at the others going around kyren's adp (using fantasycalc for adp data)...i'd take a risk on the younger achane over him, or more stable assets like devonta smith, nico collins, drake maye just to name a few
100% taking any of the WRs in his range over him. The only 2 strategies I like for RBs are either get a top 4 guy (bijan breece Gibbs cmc) or just get bridge vets like kamara, conner, Henry, etc. and pair them with their young handcuffs like kendre or benson. I hate the mid tier guys
Gaskin is a legend for my team. I got a future first round pick for him! Flipped it for Waddle a couple years later
This is what dreams are made of lol
Understandable, but Gaskin didn't even reach 1000 scrimmage yards that year. Just had an ok-ish TD outlier season. But fair
Not even. Kyren averaged 5 yards a carry. Gaskin averaged 4. I don't see the comparison at all
Fade
Just bought Kyren as a Corum owner for Jamo and Burton.
Flipped him and a 2nd next year for Swift and JSN, how’d I do (12T SF 0.5 PPR)
Swift fucking sucks
Fade like the plague