The downvotes lol. That first trade is a fleece. (Presumably) Caleb Williams for Purdy, Higgins, and then probably another good rookie at 2.01? Yeah okay
Agree that he's undervalued. I think people are scared that the low draft capital means the niners will dip out if things get bad, but I think 2 NFCC appearances and a SB appearance (all of which he played pretty well in) will give him more leash than people think. He also passes the eye test to me and just does what he needs to do, so I don't think he's gonna get himself into a scenario where anyone wants to replace him. I think a quarterback who just executes what a genius coach like Shannahan or McVay wants them to is ideal for that system. It's a perfect situation.
People use his efficiency stats as an argument against him, which I find funny. I'd imagine pass attempts will go up if efficiency goes down. I don't see how being efficient is a negative; to me it just increases his potential.
In a 4 pt pass td league, he doesn't have the upside of high-end rushing QB1s like Josh Allen, Lamar, or Hurts. But I think he's definitely under-priced at QB14. I'd take him over Lawrence, Daniels, and Love. At cost, I also prefer him to Caleb and ARich, though would prefer those two in a vacuum. If you can get him as a QB2 and an elite guy as your QB1 that's a pretty damn good setup, because he's a QB1 in my eyes.
To me that format probably elevates him over Kyler and Arich. Arichā price as an elite qb1 with such a small sample size scares me. Consistent TD throwers are really valuable in 6 ptd. Maybe Iād rank him ~8 or 9 in that format.
You can get Purdy+ for a guy who averaged the same amounts of PPG. The appeal is the value plus whatever you believe Purdy is and will be better at than Love for the price.
Heāll still have those weapons and Shannahan this year; and I donāt think the 49ers are going to stop drafting weapons when some pieces leave. Purdy can also improve himself. Itās close between him and Love but itās not that spicy to prefer Purdy.
It would be an absolute miracle if the 49ers could replace the talent of Aiyuk, Deebo, Kittle, and CMC (let alone the defense) at any point for the rest of Purdy's career. That's a big reason for the discrepancy of value. People have concerns that he's peaked for fantasy and the limited times we have seen him in situations where this core is banged up, he's had some horrible performances.
He has those pieces now, and immediate production is the most valuable production. Some will leave, but Shannahan picked and developed almost all those guys. Even after they traded up, wasted tons of resources, and absolutely whiffed on Trey Lance, they still had and have one of the best rosters in the league. I think they'll continue to build good teams and find value. They're running Shannahan's scheme (probably part of the reason everyone looks good), and he's not going anywhere. I have strong confidence that the 49ers will continue to be a great situation for Purdy.
Agreed, I think Shanny has the chops to choose and develop correctly. Everyone says the whole team is all star talent, but it isn't like they started that way.
Aiyuk - late 1st and in the doghouse early, Deebo - early 2nd, Kittle - 5th rounder, even Jauan Jennings looks pretty good for a 7th rounder. Only relatively expensive piece was CMC.
So as long as Brock is with Shanny, I too think he'll continue have a pretty good situation.
I love that!! The forever rebuild/rookie derangement syndrome in full effect!!!
He has already peaked as a sub-25 QB1 so let me value him less than a QB roughly the same age with similar stats because one has a great cast I expect to get worse and one has an average cast I expect to get better?!?
Hey, build how you want to build...Purdy has nowhere near the DC, sure, but that goes out the windows once you start winning and playing well...even the leash of top drafted guys is getting smaller as more and more later/undrafted guys come to answer the bellcall whilst top picks fall on their face.
Do you remember the off-season talk after Hurts' rookie and 2nd year?!?!? People were still mocking them QBs in the 1st/2nd LMFAO not that they are NFL personnel, but you have to come in and produce, not many players are expected to get much better after being given a couple years...
What's your point? The PPG happened. Trying to debunk how it happened isn't going to help matters when all those players you mentioned will still be there this year and most of them, the year after.
Shouldn't that be a positive... in Dynasty? Or are you guys just trying to find reasons to attribute negative aspects when they're positive for funsies? Or because you liked Lance a little too much?
I can't believe we're at the point where having a great receiving group is actually a detraction from a QB. So Herbert's value should be down because he lost his WR1, WR2 but Purdy is a negative because he has WR1, WR2, TE1, RB1? Insanity.
I'm saying if you have similar numbers, I'll take the guy I believe is elevating the players around him over the guy I think is being elevated by his weapons
Mainly cost, but there were also some stretches last year where I thought Love looked a little rough. Purdy has done it longer and has a better situation. I wouldnāt fault someone for taking Love over him though.
I never see it talked about, but he threw off his back foot a lot last year. He legitimately might have the arm talent to compensate, but every time I watched the packers play last year there were a couple plays where Iād think this is a pick ball and somehow it ended up being the perfect 30+ yard gain or td. Will not be shocked if the shoe drops on that.
Yeah I see it too. He isn't that consistent and kind of got away with a lot last year. I suppose he could clean it up, but I'm guessing this is who he is considering how long he's had to clean up all his technique. He makes a lot of bone headed plays and he got real lucky last year.
I believe thatās intentional a lot of the time. If you have the arm talent to compensate for it it allows for you to see the field better and get the pass off easier with pressure coming at you. As opposed to stepping right into it which can also cause some hand/arm injuries.Ā
San Fran has a year or two before the cap starts kicking their ass. CMC is reaching the age RBs can start to decline. Aiyuk seems to think heās in his last year. Kittle isnāt getting younger. Deebo is injured half the time.
I donāt think Purdy is close to Love at all. Purdy needed wild efficiency last year to still finish behind Love despite GBās offense being a mess the first half of last season (largely because his pass catchers who were exclusively first and second year players finally started going where they were supposed to). Good chance we saw Purdyās ceiling. He has some definite limitations to his game (e.g. heās not very effective to the boundaries, especially downfield or when pressured). Love, on the other hand, has the tools to make all the throws, is more mobile, handles pressure extremely well, and has a very deep collection of quality young pass catchers. Ceiling is the limit for Love.
Just because Purdy isnāt hyper athletic and tall, delusional people canāt wrap their mind around him having a higher ceiling than QBs like Love, who had to learn from a HOF QB for three years before he could be good for the second half of last year (he always looked bad filling in for Rodgers during those three years, too) he could easily regress and look like he did at the beginning of last year.
Absolutely absurd that everyone doesnāt prefer Purdy over Love, Purdy has balled hard two years in a row and took over the job after being qb3 and by proving he should keep the job as Mr. irrelevant. Give me Purdy Plus over Love every single time, not even close, heās got a top 3 play shceme/caller and all the weapons he needs to keep it up for years. Maybe im the crazy one but Matt Lafluer is the poor manās version of Shanahan AT BEST. Most packer fans canāt stand his play calling.
Purdy will keep improving, great kid whoās an ultra hard worker and down to earth, sign me up.
āPurdy needed wild efficiencyā¦ā
Purdy was the reason for the efficiency. I donāt think qb efficiency is comparable to TD regression for RBs for example. They still threw less than the entire league last year, we can expect that to change. Shanahan has hinted as much. Their offseason moves also indicate this. Anyway Iām not here to shit on Love, Iād say heās AT LEAST as good as Purdy, likely better, but Purdy is legit too. Heās a top 10 dynasty qb asset imo.
So much of this is just nonsense. Purdy was one of the best QBs in the league under pressure, and is just as mobile as Love. His efficiency shows that given higher volume his counting/fantasy stats have a VERY high ceiling. Love took 135 more attempts to put up similar numbers to Purdy. Purdy was also coming off of major injury and barely threw all last off season. And, on top of everything else, Love is over a year older and has been in the league 2 years longer than Purdy. Almost everything points to Purdy being the guy to have over Love in dynasty
Not to mention how Love spent the first half of the season dealing with the Packers defense calling out the offense for not doing their part. He was so trash.
I need to see more from Love to buy in personally.
I don't either man. I think he's decent and Lafluer really impressed me tbh. But I don't see a top 5 guy or even top 10.Ā
Next year defenses will have tape on him so he might be in for a sophomore slump.Ā
yeah for sure he's definitely not garbage or anything but everyone crowning him the next great young qb need to pump the brakes. he looked wildly inconsistent to me from what I watched.
As a Packers fan, it can be partially this. But also the context of the wildly inconsistent season needs to be taken into account.
There were multiple injuries to key players on that offense at the same and different times that resulted in Love playing his first full season as a starter with a revolving cast of inexperienced receivers outside of Doubs (Reed, Wicks, Melton, Heath, Musgrave, Kraft).
Granted, there is a decent amount of talent in there with higher draft picks but blaming the inconsistency of the offense as a whole on Love is not based in the facts of last season. They were missing a lot of the players that offense runs best with, especially Aaron Jones, which was shown to be the case down the stretch of the season and into the playoffs.
Save for the last throw against the 9ers that ended the game, he showed a ton of talent and poise against two of the best defenses in the NFC in a playoff setting. If he was actually a mediocre QB getting lucky then those defenses would have found the flaws in a year worth of game film and exploited it. They didn't.
Am I crowning Love the next in line of HOF Packers QBs? No. You're entitled to whatever opinion you like, but the way he handled last season shows that he's worth being talked about the way he is.
delusional. Pack overachieved last year you won't make the playoffs. if you honestly look at our roster and think we aren't repeating what we did last year you're stuck in the past. it's our time bud sorry.
I think people undervalue him due to having two of the best YACās to ever play the game in deebo and CMC which he dumps off to quite often. Heās made some pretty good, accurate downfield throws but some people may see Deebo and CMC aging and may not want to sink top 5-10 QB capital into getting him
Right or wrong, people see Purdy as being propped up by studs around him, whereas Stroud clearly elevated his teammates. The fear is that once Purdy gets paid (or possibly even this year) at least one of Deebo and Aiyuk leave, CMC and Kittle could start to decline due to their ages, and Purdy will turn into a pumpkin. At least for fantasy purposes since he doesnāt really get rushing yards. Personally I donāt think it will be all that extreme but I also understand liking at least 6-8 QBās more than him for fantasy. But if you see him as undervalued go get your guy.
He performed far worse in games Trent and/or Deebo were out. That is my main concern. When everyone is healthy he is a great asset, but I feel like he isnāt as āsituation proofā within any given season as some of the other top guys in the elite tier.
I view the price for that second tier to be the confidence in a reliable floor just as much as the potential for their ceiling and Purdy doesnāt really give you that floor in my eyes because of his struggles when dealing with surrounding adversity that could pop up in a season.
It very well may be the case, but weāll get to see in a few months. Mixon certainly isnāt cmc, but diggs / Nico / dell / Schultz vs aiyuk Deebo pearsall kittle isnāt all that different to justify if thereās a significant difference in production end of year given stroud threw the ball 60x more in one less game than purdy this year
> Purdy drops a bit next year and then massive falloff the year after
Based on... what? I mean, this is the same sub that was saying that Goff wouldn't have a job after 2022 and yet here he is massively succeeding. Lynch will still be in San Francisco and the wheels are already turning. They extended CMC, are keeping 1 of Deebo/Aiyuk. Kittle will still be there if he wants to be. Pearsall was drafted this year and could be a great Year 3 breakout.
I don't understand trying to predict drop-offs 2 years in advance lol You think the GM is just going to sit there and not do anything in that time?
My man you simply canāt argue with the Brock Purdy haters at this point, they refuse to change their minds. There are plenty of people on this sub who will unironically say itās bad for his dynasty value if he signs a $200M extension.
Please explain how Purdy signing an extension for $50M+/year is anything but good for his dynasty value. When the alternative is heās not playing for the 49ers in Shanahanās system
Based on your earlier comments where you predict a massive falloff in two years. So you just think heās bad then? Thats at least a rational take even if I disagree
Yeah, Iām on the purdy hater side. Even being on the hater side though, I can see that signing a long-term but money extension would be positive for his value
> The fear is that once Purdy gets paid (or possibly even this year) at least one of Deebo and Aiyuk leave, CMC and Kittle could start to decline due to their ages, and Purdy will turn into a pumpkin.
The fear is also that Shanahan's system is QB agnostic, as in, almost every draft worthy NFL QB can have success in it. (especially on their rookie deal!) What's Jimmy G's value today? He's only 32, in the middle of his QB prime. He took the 9ers to a Super Bowl, he was voted a top 100 player in 2018 (lol).
AND YET, outside of Shanahan's system literally no one wants him. The Raiders (lol) paid him $68M 14 months ago, benched him after 8 games, and cut him 3 months ago.
So what happens to Purdy if he's ever not in Shanahan's offense? That's the reason he appears "undervalued".
A sensible take here, amazing.
This is your answer OP. Purdy needs to prove he can elevate his team, otherwise his success will be seen as a very short term thing.
His statistical efficiency profile is off-the-charts. Considering that he has never had a full NFL off-season with his late rookie season injury makes his accomplishments that much more staggering. Itās reasonable to believe his efficiency will decrease, but itās also reasonable to believe that they will run more pass plays. The problem is that itās a run-first offense. Youād feel better if he had Reid or some other gunner as a play caller, but Purdy is definitely undervalued. That said, every other young player was given more respect than Purdy. Iāve never seen the fantasy world hate a player more. DC fanatics hated him. Physical profile guys hated him. Trey Lance owners hated him. Then anyone who didnāt pick him up hated him just because they didnāt get him.
Purdy truthers UNITE!!!!
Remove his draft status and heād be getting top 3 love especially for his age. I donāt wanna hear it. Heās at the helm of a Super Bowl contending team for years with many weapons at his disposal. Buy buy buy
In dynasty superflex, I feel like purdy is just a hold if you own him, and a buy if you don't. Most cannot say for certain if he will pan out in the long run.... but he's free to hold
A large contingent of football fans (and by definition FF players) believe Purdy isnt actually good but merely a product of being surrounded by talented players and play-caller. This means they wont bank on him being a starter long term and therefore his value isnt close to young studs like Stroud. These people typically dont watch 49er games and say things like āHe just dumps off to CMC and Deeboā then pivot to āanyone can complete passes to players when they are that wide open!ā when you disprove their claims with stats. Obviously Im a Niner fan and Stroud > Purdy but if you get a haul in addition I can tell you Purdy is real and isnt going anywhere so of you think this is a hole in the market feel free to exploit it.
I think it's both. You can tell by watching him play that he has what it takes to play QB regardless of the talent around him. He makes the right plays, throws with really good anticipation and takes care of the ball. But I also think he's boosted a little bit by the great skill players he has to work with, mostly because any QB would be. My guess is that he'll be a mid to low end QB1 for the next year or so, then he'll get a big contract and as the stars age out he'll be a low end QB1 to high end QB2 most of the rest of his career. That's really valuable in superflex leagues so I agree that he's undervalued. I traded him + a 1st last year for Burrow and I think Burrow is one of the best QBs in the game but still waffle on whether or not I gave up a little too much.
Thats seems fair. And I like the Burrow trade. I worry for his health but watching him carve up my 9ers last year just totally sold me on his elite-ness. The defense played well and heās just mercād my guys on 3rd downs all day.
You killed that trade. Purdy is clearly a product of Shanahan just like Jimmy G and Mullens were before him. Those guys didnāt have CMC but Shanny always has his QBs lead the league in epa and ypa. Purdy is solid but heās not super talented. Shanny is the real difference maker
> believe Purdy isnt actually good but merely a product of being surrounded by talented players and play-caller.
Those people never watched Purdy play or are just hot take artists. Go look at the difference between Jimmy G in the same offense and Brock Purdy. It's night and day. And you're right because it's happening in this thread.
Yeah he's probably the best dynasty bargain at QB right now. Young, proven, in a fantastic system, and he has a lot of job security at this point.
Pedigree matters a ton when it comes to perceived value. Someone like Trevor Lawrence can be only decent for now 4 seasons and still have more value than Purdy in the eyes of the Dynasty community because of the perceived upside because of draft stock and pedigree. It's this way with WRs as well.
I think part of being a good Dynasty manager is being able to leverage perceived value for actual value. Players as assets aren't just draft picks and scouting profiles, they're a combination of those things plus production, plus situation, plus projection. Purdy is one of those gems where you can take advantage of the bias the community has towards draft capital and get a better player for cheap.
It'll boost his value and ensure some longevity, but also it'll probably hurt his production. It's not going to be easy to take 50 million dollars out of their budget and keep similar weapons.
I like making a bet on Pearsall though!
Unless you are blind, Purdy is a very good qb. The amount of hate this dude gets is ridiculous.
Op I tried to trade for him in standard. Ended up swinging a deal for Burrow instead but Purdy has okayed extremely well in big games and that just isnāt normal especially for young QBs
There was a great episode by dynasty nerds diving into the chance of reoccurrence of QBās who finish top 6 - doing it again.
Purdy stuck out like a sore thumb on the analysis of the data. Heās going for pennies on the dollar of his true value if you believe he can replicate another top 6 finish in his career.
Iām buying purdy everywhere I can.
Efficiency on lower volume is one of the key indicators of future improvement/high ceiling. No QB in the league displayed that like Purdy. He was way out in front of everybody in YPA, TD rate, performance against pressure, QB rating. He had 4280y and 31TDs on 444 attempts. Bonkers
Purdy stuck out as a guy who is primed to do it again or one who isnāt? Iāve got him on every league so I obviously think he can, but Iād like to know what they thought.
Well the statistics show that 68% of QBās who finish top 6, will do so again within their career.
So the odds apply equally to anyone who finish top 6.
Obviously for each player there are individual cases but I like those odds, at Purdyās price.
I've scrolled SO far through the comments but haven't seen this mentioned anywhere. Purdy finished as QB6 in a year where every single starting QB died. They ALL got injured.
It was a strange outlier year. As far as PPG, he was as low as QB14 depending on scoring format.
I'm not worried about his contract or the cast around him. I'm worried that he's a pocket passer which makes him TD-dependent (which isn't a sticky stat), and I'm worried that he won't make a big difference on my fantasy team.
I mentioned it in another thread but here's how his value goes down:
**He's 2nd in the league in passing TDs and 32nd in pass attempts. He's tied for the highest TD rate for any QB since 2020. A lot of the QBs who were north of 6% had a 50% decline in TD rate the following year (Rodgers, Stafford, Russ from 2021 to 2022). Even those who didn't experience a massive decline still went down 1-2%. The numbers say that Purdy is probably going to throw 4-12 fewer TDs next year on the same number of attempts. That would drop him from QB6 to QB9-QB14. The 49ers also had a really easy schedule, with Jacksonville and Minnesota as their #1 seed games, but next year it's the Chiefs and Cowboys plus some good defenses in the AFC East.**
I still like him at QB14 but I don't think his value is ever really going higher. I don't see him scoring better than he did last year.
This is one of the most common opinions going round at the moment.
Iād literally everyone thinks a player is undervaluedā¦ are they definitely undervaluedā¦.?
KTC might undervalue him, but none of his owners in my leagues do. I tried trading for him, and everybodyās asking for quite a bit more than the KTC price.
Theyāre not wrong. Iām just doubtful that most Purdy owners are actually selling.
Lesser fantasy football players (and many analysts) view "upside" as superior to proven, NFL-tested talent. I've historically done pretty well by drafting proven, but less-shiny players like Purdy as they slip through drafts. He was the QB6 last year and people act like he's second class. I just got him in the 4th round of an expensive SF dynasty league. People are conditioned to treat him like he's Jimmy G, but he so far surpasses Jimmy G it's crazy. Jimmy G never touched anywhere close to QB6, and that was only Purdy's 2nd season, his FIRST as an outright starter. He's somehow become a crazy value, yes. People think that because of draft capital, he could quickly be out. That's a dumb take. This isn't RB. This is QB. If you rule at running the offense, they will keep you running the offense.
I agree he's undervalued, but there's a reason people are a bit fearful.
We saw the 9ers trade 3 1st rounders to move on from game manager Jimmy G to multi-dimensional Trey Lance coming off a super bowl loss. They could've replaced him with game manager Mac Jones, but they paid a crazy premium for the dual-threat QB. Obviously that didn't pan out, but we've seen how Jimmy G's career has gone ever since.
Purdy has looked better than Jimmy G ever did, but I think there's still a real question whether they pay him or franchise tag him next year. The day he inks a long-term extension is the day he enters top-10 dynasty QB status, but there's still trepidation that it's a situation over talent type thing here and we've seen the 9ers move on after super bowl losses before.
TL;DR: Purdy's surrounded by some ridiculous talent and ownership has shown they're not afraid to pull trigger on a blockbuster franchise QB replacement before. Would Purdy be a QB1 on any other team? Debatable.
Brock Purdy sucks, the real play maker is CMC on that team. Once CMC retires or gets hurt burdy wonāt be a thing.
The 49ers awesome record started with CMC not Purdy.
Tbh pocket passers are very volatile. You can finish as QB6 one year and be QB15 the next. I either take dual threats like Lamar or AR, or I just ride the waivers.
How do you figure? The stability of Lamar, Allen, Hurts and Kyler has been way higher, week after week and season after season, than Mahomes, Herbert, Burrow, Tua, Lawrence etc
Purdy is a bit of a first-read-then-run QB, so I wonder if thereās more to his rushing floor. If he loses a receiver maybe his rush attempts go up and he hits 300yds
First read and then run? Thatās such a bad description. His biggest strength is analyzing the defence and quick progression through his reads. Only recently he started using his agility to extend plays and run for first downs
Heās rarely making progressions after the snap, and Shanny doesnāt use pure progression in his scheming. Yes he reads pre-snap, thatās why a lot of his game is first read.
Yeah, Purdyās usually throwing to the first-read that Shanny schemes open, and pretty quickly starts moving if his guy isnāt open.
Itās first read by design under Shanahanās scheme, Iām not dogging on Purdy or saying he canāt make progression reads; thatās just the system and Purdy runs it well while adding some juice with his athleticism.
[Do you watch him play?](https://youtu.be/WzxDtkcDCVg?si=2mj6GEd0r9_Oieny)
He was QB14 in ppg. Draft capital also does mean a lot. Stroud has far more insulation.
Purdy is basically only valuable as long as Shanahan is in SF. The team has no real investment in him until they give him a contract. Yes it looks like Shanahan isnāt going anywhere and Purdy will get paid, but it hasnāt happened yet which is reflected in his value.
PPG gets outliers though, like Flacco ā who was actually \#1 in the entire league last year. Does anyone really think heās the best QB in the league or anywhere close to it?
Mahomes is the only one of those who absolutely belongs ahead of him. Herbert and Burrow are tossups. Kyler is very unlikely to finish ahead of him. You need to put the crack pipe down if you think Richardson is better.
Can you find me a redraft or dynasty ranking that puts Purdy ahead of ARich? ADP on any site? Heck, I'll take a screen shot of a single league startup where Purdy went first.
It doesn't have to be rankings! Just a single example of anyone but you preferring Purdy.
Put the crack pipe down implies you think I'm crazy. I'm just saying that you think literally everybody except you is crazy. Unless you actually found someone who agrees?
I legitimately donāt care if anyone else prefers Purdy over Richardson. I can use my own eyes to tell Richardson is the single most overhyped player in the NFL right now. Heās an injury magnet, and even when heās healthy, his accuracy is absolute garbage.
So have fun rostering Kyle Boller with legs. Iāll take a real quarterback, thanks.
Kyler beat Purdy in 4pt pass TDs leagues, had 1.2 ppg less than Purdy in 6pt pass TDs. He was coming off a turn ACL and his top receivers were Greg Dortch and Rondale Moore.
Points per game is a much better way to evaluate players than season end finishes. Purdy finished with 18.04 which most season is a mid to high qb2. Stroud finished with 18.74 as a true rookie playing on a bad team. There is far more ceiling for Strouds situation to improve than there is for Purdy.
I mean, any of them *could* finish ahead of him, but itās far from a foregone conclusion. Especially with his offense.
I have Kyler in one league but my confidence in him is pitifully low. Burrow probably has the best chance of beating him in 2024, but Iād say itās a tossup with any of them.
I'll take Purdy's stats throwing to Kittle, Deebo, Aiyuk, CMC, and Pearsal in a Shanny Offense over Herbert throwing to Ladd, QJ, and GusBus in a Roman off any day.
QB8 in PPG. 19.0 PPG -Solid performance, but I think he's performed at his ceiling. It's hard to project an increase in efficiency or rushing. I think he's valued properly.
I think itās fair to say that Stroud seems to be the one making it happen in Houston. Whereas Purdy is more of a product of the team around him.Ā
To use an analogy, you can win a Super Bowl with Eli. If you can get Eli plus a haul for Peyton by all means go for it.
I donāt know any Purdy owners that would be willing to make that move. Maybe if Purdy struggles next yearĀ
They were .5 apart in PPG. Purdy was QB of one of the best supporting casts while Stroud allegedly had one of the worst.
Add in DC and you have your answer comparatively. Purdy probably is still a bit undervalued but Stroud isnāt exactly the comp Iād go with.
Thank you! The narrative that Purdy was propped up by supporting cast is fine but at what point do we think Nico and Dell are just good players also? One cant say Aiyuk and Deebo carried Purdy and say Stroud carried Nico and Dell while also valuing these receivers similarly. I agree Stroud is better but we need to realize that maybe the Texans had better weapons (and coaching) than we thought going in.
Stroud made those weapons most notably Nico legit. Everyone expected the 49ers weapons to be good pre Purdy takeover so I see it a bit differently.
The actual comp would be more coaching related than weapons related to me. This is kind of based in 2023 though so I could see arguments changing now in regards to weapons.
I think Deebo made Jimmy G look good with his YAC and Aiyuk, although more productive than Collins with General Mills, didn't become who he is until Purdy
The other Texans weapons were already proven role players or rookies
I donāt disagree but Purdy also had the consensus RB1 who is an elite pass catcher and a top 5 TE. I think Singletary and Schultz is a substantial downgrade in that department.
For sure a downgrade but those guys can both make plays enough where the comparison doesn't get thrown off by the difference. SF is definitely a better overall offense, but Purdy also threw 50 less times and ended up with more passing yards and TDs than Stroud. That elite run game lowers his volume while making him more efficient, which feels pretty close to offsetting each other imo
End of the day, if Stroud is QB3, OP is really just saying Purdy should be like QB6 or 7
QB6 or 7 seems like a stretch to me as a Purdy owner. 10 or 11 I can get behind but there are just too many other guys with much more upside. Which top 10 guys would you rank him over?
I guess if you love him you could put him in the Caleb AR range but I havenāt seen anyone taking him ahead of those guys for good reason.
I'm close to putting him in Burrow's tier personally. I don't see much difference between them besides their current contracts and draft capital, neither of which would I consider a risk with Purdy anymore. On the field, like Stroud, they're both putting up elite pocket passing production
Stroud isnāt the comp I would go with because itās (almost) universally agreed that heās overvalued so you could make the same argument for Love, Kyler, T Law and probably some more guys like that too
Not sure Stroud is universally overrated. Heās consensus QB3 for a reason. I think a lot of people could be in that conversation but I donāt think Purdy is one of them.
What you're missing is "who is a great qb?" Purdy can play for 1 team, Stroud has a career in the NFL no matter what happens. With that being said I agree Purdy is undervalued because the 49ers will keep him
Itās a live look at market trends. Youāre not supposed to agree with all the values. Finding players that you disagree with the market value of is the whole point.
Very solid chance they donāt have 1 of those guys but extremely unlikely that they donāt have either. Pearsall and Cowing could very possibly bridge the loss of one of those guys though. Iām not concerned
I have a hard time seeing the niners let a receiver as talented as Aiyuk walk, plus Kittle and CMC need acknowledgement too as great receiving options. Pearsall also is a promising up and coming rookie. They currently have a Super Bowl caliber team, I have a hard time seeing Kyle Shanahan messing that up.
You can call it draft cap bias if youād like, but itās not like that isnāt valid. Day 3 QBs are never safe until they receive a second contract. First round QBs will almost always be given every opportunity to succeed. Those are the guys that owners, GMs, and coaching staffs stake their reputation on to be the face of a franchise. Those guys do not like to be wrong. If Purdy shows absolutely any weakness or regression prior to that extension, heāll get Minshewād right out of SF a lot faster than itād take Houston to move Stroud if the circumstances were the same.
Next, thereās legitimate worry that Purdy is a product of those weapons, and those weapons are going to need to be paid or let go around the same time Purdy is going to demand a $50-$60M/year contract. Aiyuk already probably wonāt be back.
Also. āFirst full year in the leagueā is simply not the same between the two. Purdyās āfirst full yearā was a sophomore season after he played significant time as a rookie. Heās had more reps. Heās had two offseasons with perhaps the absolute best spot any QB couldāve landed in. Itās a far cry to say thatās comparable to CJ Stroud being thrown into the fire as a rookie and over performing on a team that was expected to be a lot worse than it was.
Overall, Stroud looks to be the safer, higher ceiling long term bet.
Right now, yeah, sure. Itās an easy thing for him to say. If it doesnāt happen, it wonāt be the first time or the last time that a random Day 3 guy didnāt get an extension after starting hot. Itās also not just about paying him - itās about keeping everything around him intact after heās 1/4 of the cap himself, and whether heās capable of sustaining this level of play when those pieces donāt look so stellar anymore. Thereās more risk associated with that whole situation, and heās appropriately valued lower than Stroud because of it.
This isnāt some random guy at this point. He took his team to the Super Bowl in year two of his career and achieved statistical markers on par with only prime Aaron Rodgers and Kurt Warner, two Hall of Fame QB. And this after surgery on his throwing elbow late in the playoffs of his rookie season. Itās not just the GM either. The coach stumped for him as a rookie and the players all gush over him. In todayās NFL, for you to think that he doesnāt get a new deal is just unfathomable. I could understand that line of thinking LAST year. At this point, I just donāt see the logic train. Lower than Stoud (#3) is understandable. QB14 is absurd.
Stroud and the Texans picked up some good offensive weapons in the offseason and Brock seems to have lost Aiyuk. Not sure about strength of schedule but my guess is thatās a tougher ride for the niners as well. I have both on my team so hoping they both rock out!
Let him get paid, if you want him get him before that contract.
I just bought him, Higgins, and 2.01 for the 1.01 in one league and I'm another I bought him for 1.06
Which of these leagues is SF?
š¬š¬ damn I wish you were in my leagues lol
The downvotes lol. That first trade is a fleece. (Presumably) Caleb Williams for Purdy, Higgins, and then probably another good rookie at 2.01? Yeah okay
Sounds like I wish you were in mine š
Now kiss
Agree that he's undervalued. I think people are scared that the low draft capital means the niners will dip out if things get bad, but I think 2 NFCC appearances and a SB appearance (all of which he played pretty well in) will give him more leash than people think. He also passes the eye test to me and just does what he needs to do, so I don't think he's gonna get himself into a scenario where anyone wants to replace him. I think a quarterback who just executes what a genius coach like Shannahan or McVay wants them to is ideal for that system. It's a perfect situation. People use his efficiency stats as an argument against him, which I find funny. I'd imagine pass attempts will go up if efficiency goes down. I don't see how being efficient is a negative; to me it just increases his potential. In a 4 pt pass td league, he doesn't have the upside of high-end rushing QB1s like Josh Allen, Lamar, or Hurts. But I think he's definitely under-priced at QB14. I'd take him over Lawrence, Daniels, and Love. At cost, I also prefer him to Caleb and ARich, though would prefer those two in a vacuum. If you can get him as a QB2 and an elite guy as your QB1 that's a pretty damn good setup, because he's a QB1 in my eyes.
Where do you rank him in 6pt / passing TD?
To me that format probably elevates him over Kyler and Arich. Arichā price as an elite qb1 with such a small sample size scares me. Consistent TD throwers are really valuable in 6 ptd. Maybe Iād rank him ~8 or 9 in that format.
Whatās the appeal of him over Love?
You can get Purdy+ for a guy who averaged the same amounts of PPG. The appeal is the value plus whatever you believe Purdy is and will be better at than Love for the price.
Same amount of PPG throwing to Aiyuk, deebo, Kittle, and CMC vs two rookie TEs and a collection of a WR group vs ones that are sought after
Heāll still have those weapons and Shannahan this year; and I donāt think the 49ers are going to stop drafting weapons when some pieces leave. Purdy can also improve himself. Itās close between him and Love but itās not that spicy to prefer Purdy.
It would be an absolute miracle if the 49ers could replace the talent of Aiyuk, Deebo, Kittle, and CMC (let alone the defense) at any point for the rest of Purdy's career. That's a big reason for the discrepancy of value. People have concerns that he's peaked for fantasy and the limited times we have seen him in situations where this core is banged up, he's had some horrible performances.
He has those pieces now, and immediate production is the most valuable production. Some will leave, but Shannahan picked and developed almost all those guys. Even after they traded up, wasted tons of resources, and absolutely whiffed on Trey Lance, they still had and have one of the best rosters in the league. I think they'll continue to build good teams and find value. They're running Shannahan's scheme (probably part of the reason everyone looks good), and he's not going anywhere. I have strong confidence that the 49ers will continue to be a great situation for Purdy.
Agreed, I think Shanny has the chops to choose and develop correctly. Everyone says the whole team is all star talent, but it isn't like they started that way. Aiyuk - late 1st and in the doghouse early, Deebo - early 2nd, Kittle - 5th rounder, even Jauan Jennings looks pretty good for a 7th rounder. Only relatively expensive piece was CMC. So as long as Brock is with Shanny, I too think he'll continue have a pretty good situation.
Trevor Lawrence just got 5 years 275 mil and Purdy has been how much better? He'll have the highest cap hit bump in NFL history most likely
is this an argument against him? that sounds like the kind of guy I want on my team lol
It's an argument against them keeping a roster around him
Me when I've never seen a shanahan offense beforeĀ
I love that!! The forever rebuild/rookie derangement syndrome in full effect!!! He has already peaked as a sub-25 QB1 so let me value him less than a QB roughly the same age with similar stats because one has a great cast I expect to get worse and one has an average cast I expect to get better?!? Hey, build how you want to build...Purdy has nowhere near the DC, sure, but that goes out the windows once you start winning and playing well...even the leash of top drafted guys is getting smaller as more and more later/undrafted guys come to answer the bellcall whilst top picks fall on their face. Do you remember the off-season talk after Hurts' rookie and 2nd year?!?!? People were still mocking them QBs in the 1st/2nd LMFAO not that they are NFL personnel, but you have to come in and produce, not many players are expected to get much better after being given a couple years...
Packers offensive line better than niners. Especially if Trent goes down, niners line is abysmal.
What's your point? The PPG happened. Trying to debunk how it happened isn't going to help matters when all those players you mentioned will still be there this year and most of them, the year after. Shouldn't that be a positive... in Dynasty? Or are you guys just trying to find reasons to attribute negative aspects when they're positive for funsies? Or because you liked Lance a little too much? I can't believe we're at the point where having a great receiving group is actually a detraction from a QB. So Herbert's value should be down because he lost his WR1, WR2 but Purdy is a negative because he has WR1, WR2, TE1, RB1? Insanity.
I'm saying if you have similar numbers, I'll take the guy I believe is elevating the players around him over the guy I think is being elevated by his weapons
Mainly cost, but there were also some stretches last year where I thought Love looked a little rough. Purdy has done it longer and has a better situation. I wouldnāt fault someone for taking Love over him though.
I never see it talked about, but he threw off his back foot a lot last year. He legitimately might have the arm talent to compensate, but every time I watched the packers play last year there were a couple plays where Iād think this is a pick ball and somehow it ended up being the perfect 30+ yard gain or td. Will not be shocked if the shoe drops on that.
Yeah I see it too. He isn't that consistent and kind of got away with a lot last year. I suppose he could clean it up, but I'm guessing this is who he is considering how long he's had to clean up all his technique. He makes a lot of bone headed plays and he got real lucky last year.
I believe thatās intentional a lot of the time. If you have the arm talent to compensate for it it allows for you to see the field better and get the pass off easier with pressure coming at you. As opposed to stepping right into it which can also cause some hand/arm injuries.Ā
As a Packers fan, Shanahanās mind and the weapons around him. Itās freaking close for me though
San Fran has a year or two before the cap starts kicking their ass. CMC is reaching the age RBs can start to decline. Aiyuk seems to think heās in his last year. Kittle isnāt getting younger. Deebo is injured half the time. I donāt think Purdy is close to Love at all. Purdy needed wild efficiency last year to still finish behind Love despite GBās offense being a mess the first half of last season (largely because his pass catchers who were exclusively first and second year players finally started going where they were supposed to). Good chance we saw Purdyās ceiling. He has some definite limitations to his game (e.g. heās not very effective to the boundaries, especially downfield or when pressured). Love, on the other hand, has the tools to make all the throws, is more mobile, handles pressure extremely well, and has a very deep collection of quality young pass catchers. Ceiling is the limit for Love.
> Good chance we saw Purdyās ceiling. It's wild to think a sophomore player reached his peak and won't improve over the coming years
Just because Purdy isnāt hyper athletic and tall, delusional people canāt wrap their mind around him having a higher ceiling than QBs like Love, who had to learn from a HOF QB for three years before he could be good for the second half of last year (he always looked bad filling in for Rodgers during those three years, too) he could easily regress and look like he did at the beginning of last year. Absolutely absurd that everyone doesnāt prefer Purdy over Love, Purdy has balled hard two years in a row and took over the job after being qb3 and by proving he should keep the job as Mr. irrelevant. Give me Purdy Plus over Love every single time, not even close, heās got a top 3 play shceme/caller and all the weapons he needs to keep it up for years. Maybe im the crazy one but Matt Lafluer is the poor manās version of Shanahan AT BEST. Most packer fans canāt stand his play calling. Purdy will keep improving, great kid whoās an ultra hard worker and down to earth, sign me up.
And a great sophmore season after a possible career altering injury with no offseason while he was healing too
āPurdy needed wild efficiencyā¦ā Purdy was the reason for the efficiency. I donāt think qb efficiency is comparable to TD regression for RBs for example. They still threw less than the entire league last year, we can expect that to change. Shanahan has hinted as much. Their offseason moves also indicate this. Anyway Iām not here to shit on Love, Iād say heās AT LEAST as good as Purdy, likely better, but Purdy is legit too. Heās a top 10 dynasty qb asset imo.
Brock Purdy vs the blitz this season... 1,529 yards āĀ #1 9.9 yards per attempt āĀ #1 14 TD āĀ #1 127.9 rating āĀ #1 https://x.com/lombardihimself/status/1734263830035997030?s=46
So much of this is just nonsense. Purdy was one of the best QBs in the league under pressure, and is just as mobile as Love. His efficiency shows that given higher volume his counting/fantasy stats have a VERY high ceiling. Love took 135 more attempts to put up similar numbers to Purdy. Purdy was also coming off of major injury and barely threw all last off season. And, on top of everything else, Love is over a year older and has been in the league 2 years longer than Purdy. Almost everything points to Purdy being the guy to have over Love in dynasty
This post reads like it was written by football insider; Lordan Jove
Love is the single most overrated player in the entire league right now. my eyeballs do not see what everyone else sees.
Not to mention how Love spent the first half of the season dealing with the Packers defense calling out the offense for not doing their part. He was so trash. I need to see more from Love to buy in personally.
Hello fellow eyeball brother I see not the things I want in Love either
I thought for sure I would get downvoted to hell for that comment lol I guess there are a few of us out there š
I don't either man. I think he's decent and Lafluer really impressed me tbh. But I don't see a top 5 guy or even top 10.Ā Next year defenses will have tape on him so he might be in for a sophomore slump.Ā
yeah for sure he's definitely not garbage or anything but everyone crowning him the next great young qb need to pump the brakes. he looked wildly inconsistent to me from what I watched.
I honestly think it's because he's on the Packers and it makes a good story. They want to crown somebody the next great Packers QB.Ā
As a Packers fan, it can be partially this. But also the context of the wildly inconsistent season needs to be taken into account. There were multiple injuries to key players on that offense at the same and different times that resulted in Love playing his first full season as a starter with a revolving cast of inexperienced receivers outside of Doubs (Reed, Wicks, Melton, Heath, Musgrave, Kraft). Granted, there is a decent amount of talent in there with higher draft picks but blaming the inconsistency of the offense as a whole on Love is not based in the facts of last season. They were missing a lot of the players that offense runs best with, especially Aaron Jones, which was shown to be the case down the stretch of the season and into the playoffs. Save for the last throw against the 9ers that ended the game, he showed a ton of talent and poise against two of the best defenses in the NFC in a playoff setting. If he was actually a mediocre QB getting lucky then those defenses would have found the flaws in a year worth of game film and exploited it. They didn't. Am I crowning Love the next in line of HOF Packers QBs? No. You're entitled to whatever opinion you like, but the way he handled last season shows that he's worth being talked about the way he is.
Youāll be staring up at him from the standings. Go Pack Go
delusional. Pack overachieved last year you won't make the playoffs. if you honestly look at our roster and think we aren't repeating what we did last year you're stuck in the past. it's our time bud sorry.
Packers have been and always will be better than the lions. Enjoy 2nd place
I think people undervalue him due to having two of the best YACās to ever play the game in deebo and CMC which he dumps off to quite often. Heās made some pretty good, accurate downfield throws but some people may see Deebo and CMC aging and may not want to sink top 5-10 QB capital into getting him
They do the same shit to Goff
They were chanting Jared Goff on the pistons live stream today š
Us Pistons fans gotta cheer for something
Right or wrong, people see Purdy as being propped up by studs around him, whereas Stroud clearly elevated his teammates. The fear is that once Purdy gets paid (or possibly even this year) at least one of Deebo and Aiyuk leave, CMC and Kittle could start to decline due to their ages, and Purdy will turn into a pumpkin. At least for fantasy purposes since he doesnāt really get rushing yards. Personally I donāt think it will be all that extreme but I also understand liking at least 6-8 QBās more than him for fantasy. But if you see him as undervalued go get your guy.
This is the take, purdy is being lifted up by scheme and team, while stroud is elevating his team.
The team might go somewhere but the scheme sure isnāt so Iām not sure why thatās applicable to a fantasy discussion.
He performed far worse in games Trent and/or Deebo were out. That is my main concern. When everyone is healthy he is a great asset, but I feel like he isnāt as āsituation proofā within any given season as some of the other top guys in the elite tier. I view the price for that second tier to be the confidence in a reliable floor just as much as the potential for their ceiling and Purdy doesnāt really give you that floor in my eyes because of his struggles when dealing with surrounding adversity that could pop up in a season.
I donāt think anyone is ranking Purdy up there with Stroud, but he is still a solid QB that is underrated in fantasy.
It very well may be the case, but weāll get to see in a few months. Mixon certainly isnāt cmc, but diggs / Nico / dell / Schultz vs aiyuk Deebo pearsall kittle isnāt all that different to justify if thereās a significant difference in production end of year given stroud threw the ball 60x more in one less game than purdy this year
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Interact respectfully. Inciting drama, trolling or attacking others will result in a ban.
This is the way. Purdy drops a bit next year and then massive falloff the year after
> Purdy drops a bit next year and then massive falloff the year after Based on... what? I mean, this is the same sub that was saying that Goff wouldn't have a job after 2022 and yet here he is massively succeeding. Lynch will still be in San Francisco and the wheels are already turning. They extended CMC, are keeping 1 of Deebo/Aiyuk. Kittle will still be there if he wants to be. Pearsall was drafted this year and could be a great Year 3 breakout. I don't understand trying to predict drop-offs 2 years in advance lol You think the GM is just going to sit there and not do anything in that time?
My man you simply canāt argue with the Brock Purdy haters at this point, they refuse to change their minds. There are plenty of people on this sub who will unironically say itās bad for his dynasty value if he signs a $200M extension.
Youāre not wrong except for the part about 200 mill. I think that would be good for his value
Please explain how Purdy signing an extension for $50M+/year is anything but good for his dynasty value. When the alternative is heās not playing for the 49ers in Shanahanās system
Im agreeing with you? I said it would be good for his value.
Based on your earlier comments where you predict a massive falloff in two years. So you just think heās bad then? Thats at least a rational take even if I disagree
Yeah, Iām on the purdy hater side. Even being on the hater side though, I can see that signing a long-term but money extension would be positive for his value
> The fear is that once Purdy gets paid (or possibly even this year) at least one of Deebo and Aiyuk leave, CMC and Kittle could start to decline due to their ages, and Purdy will turn into a pumpkin. The fear is also that Shanahan's system is QB agnostic, as in, almost every draft worthy NFL QB can have success in it. (especially on their rookie deal!) What's Jimmy G's value today? He's only 32, in the middle of his QB prime. He took the 9ers to a Super Bowl, he was voted a top 100 player in 2018 (lol). AND YET, outside of Shanahan's system literally no one wants him. The Raiders (lol) paid him $68M 14 months ago, benched him after 8 games, and cut him 3 months ago. So what happens to Purdy if he's ever not in Shanahan's offense? That's the reason he appears "undervalued".
A sensible take here, amazing. This is your answer OP. Purdy needs to prove he can elevate his team, otherwise his success will be seen as a very short term thing.
His statistical efficiency profile is off-the-charts. Considering that he has never had a full NFL off-season with his late rookie season injury makes his accomplishments that much more staggering. Itās reasonable to believe his efficiency will decrease, but itās also reasonable to believe that they will run more pass plays. The problem is that itās a run-first offense. Youād feel better if he had Reid or some other gunner as a play caller, but Purdy is definitely undervalued. That said, every other young player was given more respect than Purdy. Iāve never seen the fantasy world hate a player more. DC fanatics hated him. Physical profile guys hated him. Trey Lance owners hated him. Then anyone who didnāt pick him up hated him just because they didnāt get him.
Purdy truthers UNITE!!!! Remove his draft status and heād be getting top 3 love especially for his age. I donāt wanna hear it. Heās at the helm of a Super Bowl contending team for years with many weapons at his disposal. Buy buy buy
In dynasty superflex, I feel like purdy is just a hold if you own him, and a buy if you don't. Most cannot say for certain if he will pan out in the long run.... but he's free to hold
A large contingent of football fans (and by definition FF players) believe Purdy isnt actually good but merely a product of being surrounded by talented players and play-caller. This means they wont bank on him being a starter long term and therefore his value isnt close to young studs like Stroud. These people typically dont watch 49er games and say things like āHe just dumps off to CMC and Deeboā then pivot to āanyone can complete passes to players when they are that wide open!ā when you disprove their claims with stats. Obviously Im a Niner fan and Stroud > Purdy but if you get a haul in addition I can tell you Purdy is real and isnt going anywhere so of you think this is a hole in the market feel free to exploit it.
I think it's both. You can tell by watching him play that he has what it takes to play QB regardless of the talent around him. He makes the right plays, throws with really good anticipation and takes care of the ball. But I also think he's boosted a little bit by the great skill players he has to work with, mostly because any QB would be. My guess is that he'll be a mid to low end QB1 for the next year or so, then he'll get a big contract and as the stars age out he'll be a low end QB1 to high end QB2 most of the rest of his career. That's really valuable in superflex leagues so I agree that he's undervalued. I traded him + a 1st last year for Burrow and I think Burrow is one of the best QBs in the game but still waffle on whether or not I gave up a little too much.
Thats seems fair. And I like the Burrow trade. I worry for his health but watching him carve up my 9ers last year just totally sold me on his elite-ness. The defense played well and heās just mercād my guys on 3rd downs all day.
You killed that trade. Purdy is clearly a product of Shanahan just like Jimmy G and Mullens were before him. Those guys didnāt have CMC but Shanny always has his QBs lead the league in epa and ypa. Purdy is solid but heās not super talented. Shanny is the real difference maker
Shanny isnt going anywhere though so thatās an argument for Purdy not against him.
> believe Purdy isnt actually good but merely a product of being surrounded by talented players and play-caller. Those people never watched Purdy play or are just hot take artists. Go look at the difference between Jimmy G in the same offense and Brock Purdy. It's night and day. And you're right because it's happening in this thread.
Yeah he's probably the best dynasty bargain at QB right now. Young, proven, in a fantastic system, and he has a lot of job security at this point. Pedigree matters a ton when it comes to perceived value. Someone like Trevor Lawrence can be only decent for now 4 seasons and still have more value than Purdy in the eyes of the Dynasty community because of the perceived upside because of draft stock and pedigree. It's this way with WRs as well. I think part of being a good Dynasty manager is being able to leverage perceived value for actual value. Players as assets aren't just draft picks and scouting profiles, they're a combination of those things plus production, plus situation, plus projection. Purdy is one of those gems where you can take advantage of the bias the community has towards draft capital and get a better player for cheap.
So good analysis. Take my upvote, man.
The extension, whenever it happens, will significantly boost his value. Right now plenty of people are still worried that he's easily replaceable.
It'll boost his value and ensure some longevity, but also it'll probably hurt his production. It's not going to be easy to take 50 million dollars out of their budget and keep similar weapons. I like making a bet on Pearsall though!
Unless you are blind, Purdy is a very good qb. The amount of hate this dude gets is ridiculous. Op I tried to trade for him in standard. Ended up swinging a deal for Burrow instead but Purdy has okayed extremely well in big games and that just isnāt normal especially for young QBs
Besides that Baltimore game.... Which happened in our semi finals
There was a great episode by dynasty nerds diving into the chance of reoccurrence of QBās who finish top 6 - doing it again. Purdy stuck out like a sore thumb on the analysis of the data. Heās going for pennies on the dollar of his true value if you believe he can replicate another top 6 finish in his career. Iām buying purdy everywhere I can.
Efficiency on lower volume is one of the key indicators of future improvement/high ceiling. No QB in the league displayed that like Purdy. He was way out in front of everybody in YPA, TD rate, performance against pressure, QB rating. He had 4280y and 31TDs on 444 attempts. Bonkers
Purdy stuck out as a guy who is primed to do it again or one who isnāt? Iāve got him on every league so I obviously think he can, but Iād like to know what they thought.
Well the statistics show that 68% of QBās who finish top 6, will do so again within their career. So the odds apply equally to anyone who finish top 6. Obviously for each player there are individual cases but I like those odds, at Purdyās price.
Yeah man undervalued and will continue to be. Id buy or hold
Is he worth more or less than 1.08?
More
Depends on your league settings. Most leagues? More. My league (8 team 1 QB)? Much less.Ā
1qb 12 man ppr. I just traded him away for 1.08. Already had burrow
I've scrolled SO far through the comments but haven't seen this mentioned anywhere. Purdy finished as QB6 in a year where every single starting QB died. They ALL got injured. It was a strange outlier year. As far as PPG, he was as low as QB14 depending on scoring format. I'm not worried about his contract or the cast around him. I'm worried that he's a pocket passer which makes him TD-dependent (which isn't a sticky stat), and I'm worried that he won't make a big difference on my fantasy team.
I mentioned it in another thread but here's how his value goes down: **He's 2nd in the league in passing TDs and 32nd in pass attempts. He's tied for the highest TD rate for any QB since 2020. A lot of the QBs who were north of 6% had a 50% decline in TD rate the following year (Rodgers, Stafford, Russ from 2021 to 2022). Even those who didn't experience a massive decline still went down 1-2%. The numbers say that Purdy is probably going to throw 4-12 fewer TDs next year on the same number of attempts. That would drop him from QB6 to QB9-QB14. The 49ers also had a really easy schedule, with Jacksonville and Minnesota as their #1 seed games, but next year it's the Chiefs and Cowboys plus some good defenses in the AFC East.** I still like him at QB14 but I don't think his value is ever really going higher. I don't see him scoring better than he did last year.
Nope, you're right. He's undervalued
Got him for a 2025 first
Absolute fleecing if SF unless that 1st is a top 3 pick and honestly might still be a fleece even if it is
Yep itās SF
I trades purdy for 1.08, thoughts? 1qb Ppr
Wish I had more shares of him but 2/6 leagues isn't bad
Got him for a second in 1QB and we just switched to 6pt passing TDs. Iām pretty happy to have him as my QB. Can focus on other positions
In 12 team startup today, I got him at 7.02
This is one of the most common opinions going round at the moment. Iād literally everyone thinks a player is undervaluedā¦ are they definitely undervaluedā¦.?
KTC might undervalue him, but none of his owners in my leagues do. I tried trading for him, and everybodyās asking for quite a bit more than the KTC price. Theyāre not wrong. Iām just doubtful that most Purdy owners are actually selling.
Lesser fantasy football players (and many analysts) view "upside" as superior to proven, NFL-tested talent. I've historically done pretty well by drafting proven, but less-shiny players like Purdy as they slip through drafts. He was the QB6 last year and people act like he's second class. I just got him in the 4th round of an expensive SF dynasty league. People are conditioned to treat him like he's Jimmy G, but he so far surpasses Jimmy G it's crazy. Jimmy G never touched anywhere close to QB6, and that was only Purdy's 2nd season, his FIRST as an outright starter. He's somehow become a crazy value, yes. People think that because of draft capital, he could quickly be out. That's a dumb take. This isn't RB. This is QB. If you rule at running the offense, they will keep you running the offense.
I drafted him over Dak and tua recently to get a share. Stacked the niners offense while doing it to try for a boom.
I just traded for Purdy in super flex gave up cousins and Levi's for Purdy and dobbs call it a win imo my other two QBS are hurts and love
Yes
Pairing Purdy with high upside rushing QB like ARich is chefās kiss
I agree he's undervalued, but there's a reason people are a bit fearful. We saw the 9ers trade 3 1st rounders to move on from game manager Jimmy G to multi-dimensional Trey Lance coming off a super bowl loss. They could've replaced him with game manager Mac Jones, but they paid a crazy premium for the dual-threat QB. Obviously that didn't pan out, but we've seen how Jimmy G's career has gone ever since. Purdy has looked better than Jimmy G ever did, but I think there's still a real question whether they pay him or franchise tag him next year. The day he inks a long-term extension is the day he enters top-10 dynasty QB status, but there's still trepidation that it's a situation over talent type thing here and we've seen the 9ers move on after super bowl losses before. TL;DR: Purdy's surrounded by some ridiculous talent and ownership has shown they're not afraid to pull trigger on a blockbuster franchise QB replacement before. Would Purdy be a QB1 on any other team? Debatable.
I think stroud elevates his offense whereas purdy mostly just operates his system, just my personal opinion though
Went 1.09 in a sf startup 2 weeks agoĀ
Brock Purdy sucks, the real play maker is CMC on that team. Once CMC retires or gets hurt burdy wonāt be a thing. The 49ers awesome record started with CMC not Purdy.
He was QB6 and didnāt even play in week 17 after they locked up the #1 seed.
Traded him for the 1.10 and 2.10. Sounds like I should have gotten more
Tbh pocket passers are very volatile. You can finish as QB6 one year and be QB15 the next. I either take dual threats like Lamar or AR, or I just ride the waivers.
What kind of dynasty league has startable quarterbacks on waivers
8 team 1QB. A backup QB who doesn't have elite long term upside us just a waste of a roster spot.
1QB. In Superflex itās not ideal
Must be some shallow benches o
We have 1QB with very shallow benches (16 and e taxi) and I donāt think anyone in my league streams QBs
lol actually itās the other way around š„“
How do you figure? The stability of Lamar, Allen, Hurts and Kyler has been way higher, week after week and season after season, than Mahomes, Herbert, Burrow, Tua, Lawrence etc
Purdy is a bit of a first-read-then-run QB, so I wonder if thereās more to his rushing floor. If he loses a receiver maybe his rush attempts go up and he hits 300yds
300 yards isnāt exactly dual threat.
I didnāt say dual threat, but we see with guys like Dak, Mahomes, and Herbert that 300yds rushing can be pretty nice for a weekly floor
First read and then run? Thatās such a bad description. His biggest strength is analyzing the defence and quick progression through his reads. Only recently he started using his agility to extend plays and run for first downs
Heās rarely making progressions after the snap, and Shanny doesnāt use pure progression in his scheming. Yes he reads pre-snap, thatās why a lot of his game is first read.
Rarely makes progressions after the snap? Thatās his biggest strength.
Do you even watch Niner games?
Yeah, Purdyās usually throwing to the first-read that Shanny schemes open, and pretty quickly starts moving if his guy isnāt open. Itās first read by design under Shanahanās scheme, Iām not dogging on Purdy or saying he canāt make progression reads; thatās just the system and Purdy runs it well while adding some juice with his athleticism. [Do you watch him play?](https://youtu.be/WzxDtkcDCVg?si=2mj6GEd0r9_Oieny)
Go watch some JT OSullivan videos on Purdy and report back.
He was QB14 in ppg. Draft capital also does mean a lot. Stroud has far more insulation. Purdy is basically only valuable as long as Shanahan is in SF. The team has no real investment in him until they give him a contract. Yes it looks like Shanahan isnāt going anywhere and Purdy will get paid, but it hasnāt happened yet which is reflected in his value.
He was 9 in PPG, and thatās with Flacco ahead of him. So he might as well be top 8.
Depends on the scoring settings I guess. Point is, using total points is usually inferior to ppg.
PPG gets outliers though, like Flacco ā who was actually \#1 in the entire league last year. Does anyone really think heās the best QB in the league or anywhere close to it?
And Mahomes, Herbert, ARich, Kyler and Burrow behind him, so he might as well be top 12.
Mahomes is the only one of those who absolutely belongs ahead of him. Herbert and Burrow are tossups. Kyler is very unlikely to finish ahead of him. You need to put the crack pipe down if you think Richardson is better.
Can you find me a redraft or dynasty ranking that puts Purdy ahead of ARich? ADP on any site? Heck, I'll take a screen shot of a single league startup where Purdy went first.
I donāt really care what rankings think. Get back to me when Richardson plays even half of a season.
It doesn't have to be rankings! Just a single example of anyone but you preferring Purdy. Put the crack pipe down implies you think I'm crazy. I'm just saying that you think literally everybody except you is crazy. Unless you actually found someone who agrees?
I legitimately donāt care if anyone else prefers Purdy over Richardson. I can use my own eyes to tell Richardson is the single most overhyped player in the NFL right now. Heās an injury magnet, and even when heās healthy, his accuracy is absolute garbage. So have fun rostering Kyle Boller with legs. Iāll take a real quarterback, thanks.
Kyler beat Purdy in 4pt pass TDs leagues, had 1.2 ppg less than Purdy in 6pt pass TDs. He was coming off a turn ACL and his top receivers were Greg Dortch and Rondale Moore.
Points per game is a much better way to evaluate players than season end finishes. Purdy finished with 18.04 which most season is a mid to high qb2. Stroud finished with 18.74 as a true rookie playing on a bad team. There is far more ceiling for Strouds situation to improve than there is for Purdy.
It's nice to fi ish as qb6 but when kyler, herbert, burrow and up and coming qbs aren't injured, it will push purdy down.
Whoās to say he wonāt beat all of those guys again?
Iāll say it
I mean, any of them *could* finish ahead of him, but itās far from a foregone conclusion. Especially with his offense. I have Kyler in one league but my confidence in him is pitifully low. Burrow probably has the best chance of beating him in 2024, but Iād say itās a tossup with any of them.
I'll take Purdy's stats throwing to Kittle, Deebo, Aiyuk, CMC, and Pearsal in a Shanny Offense over Herbert throwing to Ladd, QJ, and GusBus in a Roman off any day.
Yes let's all take FFB advice from the guy with the "antivaxpureblood" handle with a 4 month Reddit history. Must be a cowboy fan. š
Wow you're real sharp huh. I didn't even give advice
I pulled off 2 trades last season and netted Purdy and Stroud /brag over/
QB8 in PPG. 19.0 PPG -Solid performance, but I think he's performed at his ceiling. It's hard to project an increase in efficiency or rushing. I think he's valued properly.
Just enjoy the value now. It'll all change after the 49ers give him the š°.
Probably but I still donāt really wanna risk it
Agreed although he got a little figured out last year. Not to say he didnāt adjust. Arenāt we mostly just buying the coach and system.
I have stroud and purdy in SF AMA lets gooo
Bought purdy maye and MPJ for burrow and a third !!!
I love having Brock as my QB3. I wouldnāt love having him as my QB2.
He's valued correctly
I think itās fair to say that Stroud seems to be the one making it happen in Houston. Whereas Purdy is more of a product of the team around him.Ā To use an analogy, you can win a Super Bowl with Eli. If you can get Eli plus a haul for Peyton by all means go for it. I donāt know any Purdy owners that would be willing to make that move. Maybe if Purdy struggles next yearĀ
They were .5 apart in PPG. Purdy was QB of one of the best supporting casts while Stroud allegedly had one of the worst. Add in DC and you have your answer comparatively. Purdy probably is still a bit undervalued but Stroud isnāt exactly the comp Iād go with.
Both teams sport a top 3 LT and an enviable group of weapons, don't see a problem with the comparison
Thank you! The narrative that Purdy was propped up by supporting cast is fine but at what point do we think Nico and Dell are just good players also? One cant say Aiyuk and Deebo carried Purdy and say Stroud carried Nico and Dell while also valuing these receivers similarly. I agree Stroud is better but we need to realize that maybe the Texans had better weapons (and coaching) than we thought going in.
Stroud made those weapons most notably Nico legit. Everyone expected the 49ers weapons to be good pre Purdy takeover so I see it a bit differently. The actual comp would be more coaching related than weapons related to me. This is kind of based in 2023 though so I could see arguments changing now in regards to weapons.
I think Deebo made Jimmy G look good with his YAC and Aiyuk, although more productive than Collins with General Mills, didn't become who he is until Purdy The other Texans weapons were already proven role players or rookies
I donāt disagree but Purdy also had the consensus RB1 who is an elite pass catcher and a top 5 TE. I think Singletary and Schultz is a substantial downgrade in that department.
For sure a downgrade but those guys can both make plays enough where the comparison doesn't get thrown off by the difference. SF is definitely a better overall offense, but Purdy also threw 50 less times and ended up with more passing yards and TDs than Stroud. That elite run game lowers his volume while making him more efficient, which feels pretty close to offsetting each other imo End of the day, if Stroud is QB3, OP is really just saying Purdy should be like QB6 or 7
QB6 or 7 seems like a stretch to me as a Purdy owner. 10 or 11 I can get behind but there are just too many other guys with much more upside. Which top 10 guys would you rank him over? I guess if you love him you could put him in the Caleb AR range but I havenāt seen anyone taking him ahead of those guys for good reason.
I'm close to putting him in Burrow's tier personally. I don't see much difference between them besides their current contracts and draft capital, neither of which would I consider a risk with Purdy anymore. On the field, like Stroud, they're both putting up elite pocket passing production
Stroud isnāt the comp I would go with because itās (almost) universally agreed that heās overvalued so you could make the same argument for Love, Kyler, T Law and probably some more guys like that too
Not sure Stroud is universally overrated. Heās consensus QB3 for a reason. I think a lot of people could be in that conversation but I donāt think Purdy is one of them.
Hmm. What am I offering? I don't think I need him, but the owner is half taco. https://sleeper.app/roster/1048396745115295744/1
What you're missing is "who is a great qb?" Purdy can play for 1 team, Stroud has a career in the NFL no matter what happens. With that being said I agree Purdy is undervalued because the 49ers will keep him
Stroud is miles ahead of Purdy in talent
Purdy = Tua Heās got weapons to throw to and can make accurate throws. Hes a fine qb2. I wouldnāt be excited if he was my qb1 in a SF.
KTC Is trash if you follow that sites logic youāll be perennially behind the 8 ball.
Itās a live look at market trends. Youāre not supposed to agree with all the values. Finding players that you disagree with the market value of is the whole point.
He is rated pretty accurately, I would rather have almost all the guys ranked above him.
Heās a game manager
The drama with the WR room in San Fran is what you are missing. Potentially no Deebo and no Aiyuk next year
Very solid chance they donāt have 1 of those guys but extremely unlikely that they donāt have either. Pearsall and Cowing could very possibly bridge the loss of one of those guys though. Iām not concerned
I have a hard time seeing the niners let a receiver as talented as Aiyuk walk, plus Kittle and CMC need acknowledgement too as great receiving options. Pearsall also is a promising up and coming rookie. They currently have a Super Bowl caliber team, I have a hard time seeing Kyle Shanahan messing that up.
There's a practically 100% chance they pay at least one of them. Decent chance they lose one (deebo) but no way they let them both walk.
They didnāt add alot of weapons either. Brock gon be tested next season
You can call it draft cap bias if youād like, but itās not like that isnāt valid. Day 3 QBs are never safe until they receive a second contract. First round QBs will almost always be given every opportunity to succeed. Those are the guys that owners, GMs, and coaching staffs stake their reputation on to be the face of a franchise. Those guys do not like to be wrong. If Purdy shows absolutely any weakness or regression prior to that extension, heāll get Minshewād right out of SF a lot faster than itād take Houston to move Stroud if the circumstances were the same. Next, thereās legitimate worry that Purdy is a product of those weapons, and those weapons are going to need to be paid or let go around the same time Purdy is going to demand a $50-$60M/year contract. Aiyuk already probably wonāt be back. Also. āFirst full year in the leagueā is simply not the same between the two. Purdyās āfirst full yearā was a sophomore season after he played significant time as a rookie. Heās had more reps. Heās had two offseasons with perhaps the absolute best spot any QB couldāve landed in. Itās a far cry to say thatās comparable to CJ Stroud being thrown into the fire as a rookie and over performing on a team that was expected to be a lot worse than it was. Overall, Stroud looks to be the safer, higher ceiling long term bet.
The 49er GM has already openly stated that they will be happy to pay Purdy the money when the time comes.
Right now, yeah, sure. Itās an easy thing for him to say. If it doesnāt happen, it wonāt be the first time or the last time that a random Day 3 guy didnāt get an extension after starting hot. Itās also not just about paying him - itās about keeping everything around him intact after heās 1/4 of the cap himself, and whether heās capable of sustaining this level of play when those pieces donāt look so stellar anymore. Thereās more risk associated with that whole situation, and heās appropriately valued lower than Stroud because of it.
This isnāt some random guy at this point. He took his team to the Super Bowl in year two of his career and achieved statistical markers on par with only prime Aaron Rodgers and Kurt Warner, two Hall of Fame QB. And this after surgery on his throwing elbow late in the playoffs of his rookie season. Itās not just the GM either. The coach stumped for him as a rookie and the players all gush over him. In todayās NFL, for you to think that he doesnāt get a new deal is just unfathomable. I could understand that line of thinking LAST year. At this point, I just donāt see the logic train. Lower than Stoud (#3) is understandable. QB14 is absurd.
Stroud and the Texans picked up some good offensive weapons in the offseason and Brock seems to have lost Aiyuk. Not sure about strength of schedule but my guess is thatās a tougher ride for the niners as well. I have both on my team so hoping they both rock out!
Sweet, more targets for Kittle then.
People throwing out all these hypotheses based on stats and fantasy points, you don't need to hypothesize. Just watch them play, Stroud is far better.
Yes. Please push Purdy up to QB6 so I can profit, you guys got this! Undervalued!