This division is nuts. I can't even allow myself to imagine they have a chance at a wildcard. That would take 20-25 more points than last year.
Wildcard is a "Maybe" if they can stay healthier, actually have two top lines, dependable depth scoring, and the young guys on defense make a development leap.
Ottawa and Buffalo will be better at least 10 more points.
Toronto, Florida, Detroit and Montreal will be around the same +/- 4 points.
Boston and Tampa will be marginally worse.
disagree with Ottawa. They suck and they will keep sucking with their core of players. They are only good at beating us, but they don't know how to win against any other team lol.
Idk a few years back 2019-2020 Detroit almost got 1/5 of their points from us that year. They had 39 points and we gave them 8 of them. 8 fucking points to one of the worst teams in history. Idk how we manage to do it.
Yeah I kind of feel like the division might be less top heavy and more logjam in the middle the next 4 years or so. Maybe one elite team, one other playoff lock, and six other teams fighting for 3rd/4th without a real perennial bottom feeder. We have four teams that are feeling like their playoff window should be opening and it’s hard to tell if any of them will make the leap. I actually think Tampa has the worst prospects a few years from now, but a couple good signings or prospects can change a lot
Assuming league average of 95 points per season, I’ll use the simple logic of regression to the mean to suggest:
-Fla, worse
-Bos, worse
-Tor, worse
-TB, worse
-Det, better
-Buf, better
-Ott, better
-MTL, better
Not saying sig better or worse, just numerically. The more extreme the score (I.e., fla, mtl), the more likely this will hold.
I do think a healthy Habs team is better than that but I also think that the other 7 teams can say the same. We might not be 15-16th but we might not be 8-10th either
We go 82 games out of our 3 best forwards and are top D
Like sure we lost Dach for 80 games but what happens if we lose Caufield for 15 and Slaf for 15 and Matheson for 10
It adds up and we don’t really lose much else after Dach, Newhook was out for 30 games
On D we lost players but we have so much depth I don’t think it really had an impact
Our goalies (all 3) weren’t injured at all either
We were almost as healthy as you are going to be
Dvorak was injured as wel, while hes not great hes a 3c and getter than evans. Dach dvorak out most the year would cripple alot of teams. You need health I laos expect a big addition to the habs.
Too soon to call, but the Atlantic is a hell so... it all really depends on Buffalo and Ottawa.
Florida is hitting their peak so they are there for a few years and I don't see Toronto doing worse. So that's spot 1 and 2.
Tampa and Boston will ride their first line and goalie again. So one of these two should be third. This should also be their last season to be super competitive for both of them.
Which leaves the Wild Card spots and there are two division battling for these.
Detroit, Buffalo and Ottawa are all struggling to find an identity. The first team to do will probably take one spot. Will it be this year? Maybe, maybe not.
I understand why people are optimistic, but what we are doing currently should have been done under Bergevin's era. As excited I am for this team's future, I struggle to see where we can fit in our division when it has two powerhouse and three teams that rebuilt before us... so unless all three fails, we will be out of the playoff for many years.
Again, that's without knowing with they will do this summer. Just like when the Rangers told their fan they were rebuilding and hit the jackpot with several high skilled players that wanted to play there. If we get those this year, we can easily skyrocket in playoff mode easily.
i think the habs will be better, maybe in the running for a wildcard spot if they don’t troll the first half of the season. with dach back and the potential for hutson to join the team i could see us improving to 90 points
They struggled a lot last year and won a lot of games because of goaltending . We had an 8 point increase in points from last year to this year and were luckier injury wise. To make a 12 point jump in the standings would be quite significant for us and is unlikely. However I hope they can make the playoffs but I think it’s unlikely
So lucky injury wise that we lost our starting 2C for the whole year 1 game and a half into the season… I’m not saying they will 100% improve that much with additions of Hutson/Dach, but you can’t deny those have the potential to be two massive pieces that could really change the face of this team. I still expect us to miss out by a good 10 pts + though.
Slaf is also a much better player than he was 1 year ago. We're at a much better place next year for sure. That being said, we were still pretty bad in terms of record towards the end of the year so it's not like I'm expecting them to come out and make 100pts lol. I just think 85ish is pretty realistic. In fact, I think under 80 should be considered a disappointing year.
I garee slaf will blow up and no way Caufield shoots7 % again. Dachand hutson are huge too. Hutson will make a huge impact right away and everyone knows the habs are making a big addition this summer
I didn’t say lucky I said luckier. We were luckier last year with injuries then the previous year. The previous year we lost a lot more man games to injuries and this year we had 5 players play all 82 games. We weren’t lucky we were luckier.
You know who else gets a handful of wins they dont deserve every year because of goaltending? Good teams.
People point to any positive and toss out words like "regression" and "sustainability". We have a good goalie. That's literally it. I not very upto date on advanced stats so I'm sure I'll get some obscure stat like "GSAXAVRHST%" that Montembeault was 3rd in the league in thrown in my face but at a glance it looks like Primeau and Montembeault were 30th and 31st in the NHL in GSAA and people act like we have fucking Hasek in there getting 60 save shutouts every other night. Montembeault is a solid goalie, just accept that. Not every positive is a fluke.
We lost Allen but he only made 21 starts and had a down year anyway. Primeau could be awful, and Montembeault *could* fall off but it's just as ridiculous to assume *both* of those as it is to assume the opposite. If the rest of the team improves drastically and goaltending sinks us then whatever. Another high pick, with cap space to address goaltending next offseason. At least we're finally likely getting an answer on Primeau this season. One year from now he's probably either off the team or we've seen enough to be happy with him as back up going forward. No more 15 start years where he gets shelled in 6 and looks great in five and looks okay in the rest and we have no idea what to think.
When we’re one of the most injured teams in the league one year and then bounce back with average health the next, I wouldn’t call it super lucky
Losing Dach off the rip was still a huge blow
its 2 years now of monty apparently stealing games. I think we might just have a good goalie. Thats good because some teams dont have that like buffalo and ottawa for example.
I would expect Hutson to play the majority of the year in Laval, about 20 games sounds right with the habs, barring injuries to regulars. 88 points would be my over/under guess
The AHL won't elevate Hutsons game. He needs to play with players at the NHL level because of his hockey IQ. This is the perfect year for Hutson to learn under MSL.
Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see Hutson play with the habs, but with the logjam on D, and Matheson playing well, I can't expect him to play anything but sheltered minutes with the habs. It'll be that, or 22+ minutes a game in Laval playing top pair and top power play unit in a mens league.
Its really so hard to predict lol. Tampa had 97 points, meaning 2 more losses and theyre out. If anything theyre just as good. Meanwhile teams like montreal adding dach hutson mailloux and more are upgrading substantially. Things change very quick. We had one line last year and iwth dvorak dach out evans was our 2c for a large portion. Collin white 4c like yikes. Suzuki by himself was too much for some teams some nights
~ Same/Better FLA 110 (110-120)
~ Same BOS 109 (104-114)
~ Same TOR 102 (97-107)
v Worse TBL 98 (88-98)
^ Better DET 91 (91-101)
v Same BUF 84 (79-89)
v Same OTT 78 (73-83)
^ Much Better MTL 76 (81-91)
It could be much more scrambled than that, injuries, trades, new coaches all variables we don't know. I feel like Detroit takes the 4 spot on the Atlantic and the Habs and Bolts fight it out for 5th and maybe a final wild card spot.
If the roster can stay more healthy than injured in 2024/25, the playoffs could be on the table. Even if just barely.
I know we say that every year, but surely Boston is gonna start dropping in the standings after they downgrade their elite 1A/1A goalie tandem to just elite 1A / 1B
Until it happens it hasn't happened. But sure I wouldn't complain if the leafs just fell out of the playoffs in the final year of the Tavares/Marner era. :D
It's not gonna end up like this because of injuries and goaltending but on paper this is how I see the division matching up
FLA - 108
TOR - 103
BUF - 100 (They're finally good)
TB - 98
BOS - 95 (They're finally mediocre)
DET - 90
MTL - 82
Boston and Tampa could be in the same situation as the bottom-4 teams in the Atlantic within the next 1-2 years. Unless Sweeney and Brisebois, respectively, make a retool on-the-fly type of moves, their lineup won't stand a chance against teams who are building up as contenders.
Toronto could be in the mid-tier like Florida. Whoever wins the Stanley Cup this year will have to make moves come off-season. I think the Leafs will make some big changes A.S.A.P. starting with dismantling their core-4.
Detroit and Ottawa are not too far off when it comes to getting a wild-card spot. I think their retool/rebuild work are in steady pace over the years.
For us and Buffalo, there's work but I see the Habs and Sabres are moving up.
If we make the right additions I dont see why we cant compete with detroit. Detroit, ottawa buffalo etc are already pretry much capped out. They'll likely fill the space with what they lost, taraseno, perron, etc. The habs though will be by far the most improved though. Hutson Dach alone is huge, then we have 20 mil.
Hard to tell, it will depend if we make another big trade, wich prospect will play with the Habs, will they exceed expectations ? It would be easier to say at the end of august.
Don’t know but Boston is done. Marchand has regressed, their roster talent drops significantly after Pastrnak, MacAvoy and Swayman (Ullmark probably gone) & Barely any prospects of worth after Lysell.
It was pretty obvious Boston was reliant on goaltending this year. The playoffs proved that.
Pastrnak had almost 50 points on Marchand, and Coyle. Not to mention that they have a lot of roster spots to fill this year…the team is going to look quite different in 2024. Perhaps they can be competitive depending on who they can attract as a UFA and the Ullmark return.
Wouldn’t call them done, but it’s hard to see them getting any better in the next couple years and won’t be serious cup contenders
As long as their defence remains solid as it usually is and Swayman is elite, they should cruise to 90+ points
1 McAvoy or Pasta injury and they’re fucked tho
Here’s the thing though. Swayman is going from Tandem goalie to full time goalie (if the Ullmark trade happens). Will be interesting to see if he can handle another 20 games/ season.
By “done” I mean bubble team. Wouldn’t be surprised if one Buffalo, Detroit or Ottawa jump them.
We’re going for the wild card baby
This division is nuts. I can't even allow myself to imagine they have a chance at a wildcard. That would take 20-25 more points than last year. Wildcard is a "Maybe" if they can stay healthier, actually have two top lines, dependable depth scoring, and the young guys on defense make a development leap.
Detroit almost made it and I believe we will be ahead of them next year
> I believe we will be ahead of them next year why?
Because they trot out a pairing of Maatta-Petry fairly often. They are not that good of a team.
Niether are we.
Yeah, but the vibes.
With steady goal tendering and an improvement in man days lost to injury in the lower half of the league average should put is WC contention.
Statistically we had some of the best goaltending all season, it actually really covered up the flaws of the team. It's gonna be tough
*Goal tending
I hate autocorrect - 12 times every day I am not typing ducking.
We lost more than 50% of our games by 1 goal with a mediocre team, just imagine if we work to fix this issue
Yeah just score 2 more goals a game Easy
It's not nearly as simple as a "this issue" thing if your issue is mediocrity I'm afraid
more than 50% of our wins were in 1 goal games we got lucky and forced OT a bunch early in the season
I'm seeing a wild-card spot for them. But it will be hard. Teams like Ottawa, Detroit, and Buffalo will be jostling against Mtl. for WC spots.
Maybe 1 spot better Low 80s point total
Chance of worse - not really, chance of better yes. How much better also depends how much other teams regress as much as we are better
Ottawa and Buffalo will be better at least 10 more points. Toronto, Florida, Detroit and Montreal will be around the same +/- 4 points. Boston and Tampa will be marginally worse.
disagree with Ottawa. They suck and they will keep sucking with their core of players. They are only good at beating us, but they don't know how to win against any other team lol.
Ottawa and Buffalo, unless they prove they can get out of their pit of.. whatever's up with them, just assume they're gonna suck.
What does that say about us then?
Idk a few years back 2019-2020 Detroit almost got 1/5 of their points from us that year. They had 39 points and we gave them 8 of them. 8 fucking points to one of the worst teams in history. Idk how we manage to do it.
We were a pretty shit team back then as well, just had a few more better pieces like Price and Weber who could occasionally turn it on
We made it to the playoffs that year…nonetheless it’s always embarrassing when a dogshit team cleans you for the 4 games you play them each year.
Bro we were 24th in the NHL 8th last Covid is the only reason
Ottawa needs goaltending bad and norris to be healthy. Buffalo? I dont even know
they are better than the habs
Yeah I kind of feel like the division might be less top heavy and more logjam in the middle the next 4 years or so. Maybe one elite team, one other playoff lock, and six other teams fighting for 3rd/4th without a real perennial bottom feeder. We have four teams that are feeling like their playoff window should be opening and it’s hard to tell if any of them will make the leap. I actually think Tampa has the worst prospects a few years from now, but a couple good signings or prospects can change a lot
Assuming league average of 95 points per season, I’ll use the simple logic of regression to the mean to suggest: -Fla, worse -Bos, worse -Tor, worse -TB, worse -Det, better -Buf, better -Ott, better -MTL, better Not saying sig better or worse, just numerically. The more extreme the score (I.e., fla, mtl), the more likely this will hold.
I do think a healthy Habs team is better than that but I also think that the other 7 teams can say the same. We might not be 15-16th but we might not be 8-10th either
We go 82 games out of our 3 best forwards and are top D Like sure we lost Dach for 80 games but what happens if we lose Caufield for 15 and Slaf for 15 and Matheson for 10 It adds up and we don’t really lose much else after Dach, Newhook was out for 30 games On D we lost players but we have so much depth I don’t think it really had an impact Our goalies (all 3) weren’t injured at all either We were almost as healthy as you are going to be
Come again?
Dvorak was injured as wel, while hes not great hes a 3c and getter than evans. Dach dvorak out most the year would cripple alot of teams. You need health I laos expect a big addition to the habs.
Too soon to call, but the Atlantic is a hell so... it all really depends on Buffalo and Ottawa. Florida is hitting their peak so they are there for a few years and I don't see Toronto doing worse. So that's spot 1 and 2. Tampa and Boston will ride their first line and goalie again. So one of these two should be third. This should also be their last season to be super competitive for both of them. Which leaves the Wild Card spots and there are two division battling for these. Detroit, Buffalo and Ottawa are all struggling to find an identity. The first team to do will probably take one spot. Will it be this year? Maybe, maybe not. I understand why people are optimistic, but what we are doing currently should have been done under Bergevin's era. As excited I am for this team's future, I struggle to see where we can fit in our division when it has two powerhouse and three teams that rebuilt before us... so unless all three fails, we will be out of the playoff for many years. Again, that's without knowing with they will do this summer. Just like when the Rangers told their fan they were rebuilding and hit the jackpot with several high skilled players that wanted to play there. If we get those this year, we can easily skyrocket in playoff mode easily.
i think the habs will be better, maybe in the running for a wildcard spot if they don’t troll the first half of the season. with dach back and the potential for hutson to join the team i could see us improving to 90 points
They struggled a lot last year and won a lot of games because of goaltending . We had an 8 point increase in points from last year to this year and were luckier injury wise. To make a 12 point jump in the standings would be quite significant for us and is unlikely. However I hope they can make the playoffs but I think it’s unlikely
So lucky injury wise that we lost our starting 2C for the whole year 1 game and a half into the season… I’m not saying they will 100% improve that much with additions of Hutson/Dach, but you can’t deny those have the potential to be two massive pieces that could really change the face of this team. I still expect us to miss out by a good 10 pts + though.
We also lost newhook early, and cc's shoulder seems to still be affected by surgery
Slaf is also a much better player than he was 1 year ago. We're at a much better place next year for sure. That being said, we were still pretty bad in terms of record towards the end of the year so it's not like I'm expecting them to come out and make 100pts lol. I just think 85ish is pretty realistic. In fact, I think under 80 should be considered a disappointing year.
I garee slaf will blow up and no way Caufield shoots7 % again. Dachand hutson are huge too. Hutson will make a huge impact right away and everyone knows the habs are making a big addition this summer
I didn’t say lucky I said luckier. We were luckier last year with injuries then the previous year. The previous year we lost a lot more man games to injuries and this year we had 5 players play all 82 games. We weren’t lucky we were luckier.
You know who else gets a handful of wins they dont deserve every year because of goaltending? Good teams. People point to any positive and toss out words like "regression" and "sustainability". We have a good goalie. That's literally it. I not very upto date on advanced stats so I'm sure I'll get some obscure stat like "GSAXAVRHST%" that Montembeault was 3rd in the league in thrown in my face but at a glance it looks like Primeau and Montembeault were 30th and 31st in the NHL in GSAA and people act like we have fucking Hasek in there getting 60 save shutouts every other night. Montembeault is a solid goalie, just accept that. Not every positive is a fluke. We lost Allen but he only made 21 starts and had a down year anyway. Primeau could be awful, and Montembeault *could* fall off but it's just as ridiculous to assume *both* of those as it is to assume the opposite. If the rest of the team improves drastically and goaltending sinks us then whatever. Another high pick, with cap space to address goaltending next offseason. At least we're finally likely getting an answer on Primeau this season. One year from now he's probably either off the team or we've seen enough to be happy with him as back up going forward. No more 15 start years where he gets shelled in 6 and looks great in five and looks okay in the rest and we have no idea what to think.
When we’re one of the most injured teams in the league one year and then bounce back with average health the next, I wouldn’t call it super lucky Losing Dach off the rip was still a huge blow
its 2 years now of monty apparently stealing games. I think we might just have a good goalie. Thats good because some teams dont have that like buffalo and ottawa for example.
Yea I agree. That’s why I said luckier
I would expect Hutson to play the majority of the year in Laval, about 20 games sounds right with the habs, barring injuries to regulars. 88 points would be my over/under guess
The AHL won't elevate Hutsons game. He needs to play with players at the NHL level because of his hockey IQ. This is the perfect year for Hutson to learn under MSL.
Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see Hutson play with the habs, but with the logjam on D, and Matheson playing well, I can't expect him to play anything but sheltered minutes with the habs. It'll be that, or 22+ minutes a game in Laval playing top pair and top power play unit in a mens league.
Top 4 with Savard right away. He's easily the 3rd best dman on the team and hell make a huge impact.
Its really so hard to predict lol. Tampa had 97 points, meaning 2 more losses and theyre out. If anything theyre just as good. Meanwhile teams like montreal adding dach hutson mailloux and more are upgrading substantially. Things change very quick. We had one line last year and iwth dvorak dach out evans was our 2c for a large portion. Collin white 4c like yikes. Suzuki by himself was too much for some teams some nights
If we can add a couple more wins, maybe break 80 points, and do a better job of outchancing teams I would be satisfied. And rely less on loser points
~ Same/Better FLA 110 (110-120) ~ Same BOS 109 (104-114) ~ Same TOR 102 (97-107) v Worse TBL 98 (88-98) ^ Better DET 91 (91-101) v Same BUF 84 (79-89) v Same OTT 78 (73-83) ^ Much Better MTL 76 (81-91) It could be much more scrambled than that, injuries, trades, new coaches all variables we don't know. I feel like Detroit takes the 4 spot on the Atlantic and the Habs and Bolts fight it out for 5th and maybe a final wild card spot. If the roster can stay more healthy than injured in 2024/25, the playoffs could be on the table. Even if just barely.
I know we say that every year, but surely Boston is gonna start dropping in the standings after they downgrade their elite 1A/1A goalie tandem to just elite 1A / 1B
You could argue trading away a goalie who might play half the games for a center or something who could play all 82 will make them better, not worse
for sure, i guess we'll see what they get in return
Yeah, very possible, and I'd be fine with it. :D
Toronto is losing marner...
Until it happens it hasn't happened. But sure I wouldn't complain if the leafs just fell out of the playoffs in the final year of the Tavares/Marner era. :D
Prediction here: Unless they acquire a big center next year is finally the year Boston falls off. Wildcard team, 1st round loss.
This is worthless until we hit mid season next year. There are so many moving parts in a hockey season.
It's not gonna end up like this because of injuries and goaltending but on paper this is how I see the division matching up FLA - 108 TOR - 103 BUF - 100 (They're finally good) TB - 98 BOS - 95 (They're finally mediocre) DET - 90 MTL - 82
Boston and Tampa could be in the same situation as the bottom-4 teams in the Atlantic within the next 1-2 years. Unless Sweeney and Brisebois, respectively, make a retool on-the-fly type of moves, their lineup won't stand a chance against teams who are building up as contenders. Toronto could be in the mid-tier like Florida. Whoever wins the Stanley Cup this year will have to make moves come off-season. I think the Leafs will make some big changes A.S.A.P. starting with dismantling their core-4. Detroit and Ottawa are not too far off when it comes to getting a wild-card spot. I think their retool/rebuild work are in steady pace over the years. For us and Buffalo, there's work but I see the Habs and Sabres are moving up.
If we make the right additions I dont see why we cant compete with detroit. Detroit, ottawa buffalo etc are already pretry much capped out. They'll likely fill the space with what they lost, taraseno, perron, etc. The habs though will be by far the most improved though. Hutson Dach alone is huge, then we have 20 mil.
Most of these teams we expected more from this year. The only teams I could see regressing are Boston and Tampa
Hard to tell, it will depend if we make another big trade, wich prospect will play with the Habs, will they exceed expectations ? It would be easier to say at the end of august.
all depends on the injuries. It's the same song every year. Dach, Dvorak and Caufield will probably get injured again.
NOPE! NONONO, no! No! NOOOOOOO! Not Dach fucking again, don't you dare say that!
it's the make or break year for him if you ask me. If he gets injured is reputation will change from unlucky to really fragile.
Don’t know but Boston is done. Marchand has regressed, their roster talent drops significantly after Pastrnak, MacAvoy and Swayman (Ullmark probably gone) & Barely any prospects of worth after Lysell.
We've been saying that for 2 years now, I'll believe it when I see it
It was pretty obvious Boston was reliant on goaltending this year. The playoffs proved that. Pastrnak had almost 50 points on Marchand, and Coyle. Not to mention that they have a lot of roster spots to fill this year…the team is going to look quite different in 2024. Perhaps they can be competitive depending on who they can attract as a UFA and the Ullmark return.
Wouldn’t call them done, but it’s hard to see them getting any better in the next couple years and won’t be serious cup contenders As long as their defence remains solid as it usually is and Swayman is elite, they should cruise to 90+ points 1 McAvoy or Pasta injury and they’re fucked tho
Here’s the thing though. Swayman is going from Tandem goalie to full time goalie (if the Ullmark trade happens). Will be interesting to see if he can handle another 20 games/ season. By “done” I mean bubble team. Wouldn’t be surprised if one Buffalo, Detroit or Ottawa jump them.