oh you have no idea...
Say a line from Russia or Ukraine, say a line from stockpiles, say a line of losses and victories and gains and all that, propaganda, western (nationalist) ideas, and the political sentiment in the West, I've probably already heard it.
WW2 is completely different, if you mention something from 1945, or bring up a point on the Eastern front, the German ideology and other stuff relating to the Germans and Soviets in during the war, I can guarantee you I have already heard that 10 times before
I'm not gonna lie, it is exhausting, it really is, but they're so fun to look into. They really are. I can't wait for Ukraine to win so I can look from start to finish the war in its entirety.
Me when someone asks a question that's actually difficult and not related to military stuff: well shit
Okay but no, in all seriousness. I'll admit, I'm not an economics guy, I prefer war and politics, how much this is connected is uncanny but anyway, so this answer is going to be quite vague and more of my opinion rather than actual fact, so take this with a pinch of salt and ready yourself for general answers.
Ukraine is gonna have a hard time reconstructing, and it depends on who pays and who helps, I imagine a situation similar to the Marshall plan, where America sent 12 billion to reconstruct Europe, something similar will happen, but Europe will also help a great deal, and so Ukraine's reconstruction will probably be fast, Ukraine has repaired itself quickly by itself, so you can imagine that this would also be quick. Simply, Lots of money being pumped into Ukraine and a lot of people working on it, this would help not just Ukraine, but Europe and America, Ukraine's economy is firmly in the toilet, it is not having a good time, losing 30% of your economy in a year is crippling. So the reconstruction will be great for them, because not only does it take the costs for them away, it would also allow them to directly pump the money back into their economy, Russia is doing this and so is Ukraine, it's why their economies grew throughout this war ignoring the first losses, economically, fantastic, even better if it's from the Russian banks in the West who hold 300 billion dollars. That would help everyone.
If Russia pays, well, I really don't like that, Russia's economy is already bad, and it will have a shitshow occur when it pulls back. Add on an extra 300 billion, or 15% of Russia's economy, and that would cripple them, at best, they would be crippled for the next 20 years, at worse, you could see a more nationalist movement in Russia but you know it's not really that different from now.
Simply, economically, it'll be fine. Not perfect, but fine.
As for the future of Ukraine? There are so many different things that could happen its hilarious. Simply, Ukraine becomes a corner stone of NATO and its defence in the Western world, the Ukrainians will teach how Russians fight and all that other jazz, and it will be a massive political win for the world, they showed they will not stand for aggression, and this will put off other invasions that could happen.
Russia will be furious, but there's nothing they can do, they already think they're fighting NATO, if they lose, it will be proof to them they can't win. And it will deter any further aggression, Russia would also become more isolated, their allies will abandon them, at least most of them will, their nation would become China's puppet essentially. Or potential puppet, especially if they lose all of their equipment in Ukraine.
That's what i got to say on it.
Could you explain some important truths I should consider before forming an opinion on this particular conflict? I believe that you could provide information that would enhance the clarity and depth of my perspective.
To be honest, I'm not sure.
You already know the basics, Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 because the Ukrainians got rid of their pro-Russian government, Russia then attacked and tried to get Donetsk and Luhansk, invaded again, full scale this time in 2022, the Russians, massively underprepared, got absolutely fucked in the first couple of weeks, that's why I think the early war was so successful for Ukraine, we were looking at a paper bear, sure, but the Russian army didn't know what was going on.
Kherson and Kharkiv were massive victories for Ukraine and really the last Ukrainian victories, at least in the sense of taking land. Russian losses exploded throughout 2023 and continue to today, with last month seeing nearly 30,000 Russians as casualties, this has been the case since January
And at this point, Russia is running out of time, they do not have enough supplies or equipment to win, but they do not have the industrial strength to replace their losses, so they pull from stockpiles, which are going down and will deplete at some point, put it like this, for every tank Russia makes, Ukraine knocks out 3-4. And from independent sources from Telegram, Russia in the last day, and has been suffering this since the Kharkiv offensive this year, not 2022's when Ukraine was attacking, this year. The telegram sources suggest 3-4 tank kills a day, 6-7 are abandoned, and 8-9 are damaged.
Simply, Russian losses are too great for them to continue at this pace for the next two or three years.
Isn't the biggest problem at this point that Ukraine is also struggling with their losses? If what I've read is accurate then Ukraine has been under-equiped for quite a while, with the situation slowly starting to improve due to increased help from the EU and USA (which should've been available earlier, but politics is a messy hell). But besides that they're also having some issues with getting enough manpower to replenish the losses that they've suffered.
And if this is all true, it's just another war of attrition. Which may not be favorable to Ukraine as they have a smaller manpower pool than Russia, and ultimately manpower is the deciding factor. But hopefully Ukraine will hold and come out victorious.
Yes.
I can't even disagree with that. Ukraine struggles with losses as well, and replacing them, they are in a better position though because, they're being supplied by the West, and are getting help with industry.
Manpower pool isn't nearly as important as people think. People look at population and immediately think, more power or more ability to fight, the war isn't popular in Russia, well it could be but Russians don't want to fight, and Ukraine is being invaded, they will get the manpower because they don't really have much of a choice.
A war of attrition still needs weapons, and Russia is running out of that, and no amount of manpower will win the war. China in WW2 had two to three times the Japanese army, and nearly 7x the population, they barely moved the front line. only really getting it going after 1944
Remember, use history as a base of ideas, and then connect paraells and make assumptions and guesses from there.
Yes that does include the history of this current war, Vuhledar is one that I will never forget. 2022 December, everyone was terrified Russia was going to steamroll it, and now, they haven't even captured, even today it is still Ukrainian
Thanks for taking the time to write this.
I am from the west and I try my best to view every conflict as neutral as possible, despite being aware that Russia has been a pain in the ass for over centuries for the rest of europe.
With this in mind, how would you respond if I said that this conflict could be resolved if we did a ceasefire, followed by negotiations in terms of land distribution? I mean, best case scenario from this point forward is to stop the fight immediately. Men are dying, all the economies are taking a blow, people are suffering and infrastructure is being blown to pieces.
I know Russia's economy is jackshit, but they do have a lot of land with natural resources + a good relationship with China. Also, our economy might be super powerful but don't forget the USA paid more in interest than military spending last year.
The reason why I think giving the land east of the Dnipro river to Russia is the best solution is because A. Almost every has shown their effort by now that you can't continue to disrupt our peace this way, B. The faster we stop this, the better, C. Before the fall of the USSR Ukraine was part of Russia for over 2 centuries and consist about 1/3th of the population of Russia and D. If you look at it pragmatically, back when there was a wall that separated Berlin somewhat "solved" any further provocation. It gave some definitive borders for the time being
How did Hitler respond when he was given the Sudetenland, remember, he did not have enough ammunition to fight a war at that time.
How did Japan respond when it took Northern China
How did Italy respond when no one did anything against Ethiopia
How did the Soviet Union respond when no one did anything about the invasion of Afghanistan, or the forceful taking of Eastern Europe, or when they invaded Ukraine in the civil war
How did Russia respond when it made peace in the Donbass region, wrote it out and signed it? They broke it, literally as soon as it went into affect.
To give a genocidal dictator what they want is suicide, not just for you, but for Ukraine, Russia is starving Mariupol at the moment, and has forcibly kidnapped 700,000 children from Ukraine, that's what Russia says they've done, That is the definition of genocide.
I am telling you now, Russian war crimes are sick at best, rapes, murders, torture, sexual abuse, kidnapping, and destruction of entire cities are some of the better things they've done when it was just to adults.
Putin wants all of Ukraine, he will not stop just because we give him half of it.
And my last point of it, he thinks he's fighting NATO, as in, NATO has deployed its full force against him in Ukraine and he is fighting it. If Ukraine loses, NATO loses in his eyes, and that will make him think winning against NATO, who he has just supposedly beaten, would be easy
Simply. Making peace is a suicide mission, history shows this, Putin shows this and Ukraine knows it. Ukraine will not exist, it's people will be murdered and brutalised, and NATO itself will be invaded if Putin wins in Ukraine.
If you got peace, prepare for war
If you got war, prepare for peace
Thanks a lot!!!!!!!!! This is what I desperately needed. I swear I can't thank you enough.
the importance of neutrality is so deep ingrained in my being for some reason that I actually struggle to choose a side as opposed to most people, that tend to struggle _not_ choosing a side.
Anyway that first paragraph blew me away. You're absolutely right. Again, thanks a lot!!
> Putin wants all of Ukraine and will not stop
Coincidentally, the idea I wrote was basically inspired by this implication.
Because Putin will not stop, and because the west could continue this defense position for quite some time, I personally think it's inevitable to reach a point where basically both of our economies have suffered massive damage
Knowning this, is negotiating really not possible? That was my question. You answered it in the best way possible tho. My original rationalization is flawed in every way possible
Last thing: God damnit all this crap breaks my heart. At least the scientists up there in the ISS (the ones doing the actual work that we actually should be doing anno 2024) are still working together.
I think we humans should really start to live like _as if_ aliens existed. Then we could at the very least have a potentially realistic "judge" that could keep us in line. Religion is dying and it's clearly showing. (Im not religious btw but I do think it has been fundamental in terms of providing additional moral/ethics to humanity)
Yeah its inevitable.
Like I said, 1/3th of the total population lives there, has an enormously important geographical location and it was basically lost after the USSR fell in the 90's
There is no way in hell Russia would let that one slide. Not even if it meant going to war massively underprepared combined such an pathetic economy. (As we've seen)
I am not afraid of Russia. I am more afraid of more powerful nations with whom Russia has more favorable alliances. The west has been in a steady decline in its geopolitical relationships with these countries.
Well, you either seal the deal and end this crap or continue risking it for either a win or a lose
If Ukrain splits up and russia only gets half, everyone loses. Rather make everyone lose than risk of having a win-lose situation
Except you forgot to mention that Russia is literally advancing on all fronts.. they do replenish their ammunition to some extent clearly because they have fire superiority on multiple fronts with battery fire. In some cases they have entire factories making plastic cased ammunition destined to be shipped off and stored very little time before being used. I'm sorry but your opinion is just nafo optimism. Literally the biggest tank factory in the world is in Russia. The longer the war goes on the less support Ukraine will get over time. Ukraine should consider signing a treaty regarding NATO, the donbass, and their future sovereignty
Ukraine doesn't get a choice here, they either win, or they die.
This isn't a war, this is a genocide shown as a war. Yes Russia is making advances. Don't ask how much land the Soviets gained after WW2, or how much Germany had in WW2 and WW1, don't ask about Napoleon, no, land means winning because I said so.
I'm sorry I just hate that line of thought. rUsSiA aDvAnCiNg? tHeY wInNiNg?!?! No. land does not mean shit in a war. Napoleon literally and allied all of Europe outside of the Southern Balkans, and still lost. Germany became one of the biggest empires in history during WW2 and died, with a vengeance. Germany in WW1 literally conquered Russia, and took the most economical parts of Russia, and still lost. The size of the empire doesn't mean anything.
Russia is advancing slower than a snail, I am not making that, a snail would literally be at Kyiv by this time if it started in Luhansk. And Russia is losing everything, they have lost thousands of tanks, their artillery losses could be as high as 10,000, and they have almost nothing to show for it. They have conquered 900 squared kilometres in 8 months, only at a cost of 240,000 men and 4000 vehicles.
That is not something any nation could sustain, you wouldn't Italy could? No, Russia's is the same size, yeah sure the Russian economy is more war focused, but even if Italy had the Russian industry, it could not sustain this war, why would Russia be any different?
They replace their ammunition, barely, they are producing 2.5 million shells a year, they fire 3.65 million a year. Ukraine has told the West repeatedly they only need 2.5 million a year, and that will happen by the end of 2025
And what difference does it make that Russia has the biggest tank factory? It's the biggest? Cool, it makes 400 from scratch a year, they've lost on average 1500 a year. Ukraine has lost 850 at the low end, high end about 1200 from the beginning of this invasion.
Russian losses are not sustainable, they have lost more T-55's in this year than they have in the last two. They are getting desperate, and offensives show this, Kharkiv, stopped literally 10km into Ukraine, and now they're talks of another attack from Belgorod again.
They had to ask North Korea for more shells, North Korea gave 5 million, again, that depletes Russian artillery, Russian artillery isn't getting destroyed. It just can't replace the barrels, so they simply rip it off old guns and send them to war.
Ukrainian support is also not going down, over the last couple of months it's gone up and Europe is pretty much, support Ukraine, even if it hurts us, 64%, and this is the lowest statistic, support military equipment to Ukraine. 91% for humanitarian aid. The idea that it is, is again, not really founded in reality, hell even America is starting its tune on it, America, like, come on.
"Ukraine should consider signing a treaty regarding NATO, the donbass, and their future sovereignty"
And finally, this shit. Ukraine is Ukraine, why can't Russia just pull back? Why must it be Ukraine will pays for the price of the Russian aggression? Why can't Russia pull back and leave Ukraine the fuck alone.
Russian peace is not peace, it's a want to rebuild their army to attack again, they did this in Minsk II, before it was even signed, they tried to push on the city they said they wouldn't, then they claimed the West broke the agreement so they had too. Russian peace is, give us more land than we have captured, which is your most economical land, and without it would leave you fucked for any further aggression, demilitarise Ukraine, no army basically. And agree to never join NATO.
I wonder why Putin doesn't want to have peace where Ukraine can join NATO.
Their future sovereignty is decided by Kyiv, and they have said it will be whole Ukraine, or the war continues.
This is a Russian attack meant to destroy Ukraine, if someone was going to kill you, no matter what you did, which you surrender and let them do horrible things to you and your family, or would you fight and defend them? Ukraine doesn't get a choice here, it's surrender now and die, if you're lucky, or fight and die.
The Soviet Union was in the same situation, and the reason we aren't German is because despite them losing 10's of millions of people, they didn't surrender, why should Ukraine now?
Ukraine will win this, Russian advances are taking less ground for more losses than ever before, the situation for them has only gotten worse since the year began, and Ukraine is now getting the supplies it needs to fight. Ukraine was literally the weakest it will ever be, and Russia could not breakthrough, not even on the tactical level, how the fuck are they meant to now? Where the F-16's come, when the shells come in and when the Western allies send more equipment?
How many Ukrainian children, women and men have to die before we learn the lesson? You cannot negotiate with an enemy who wants to kill you
Yes, but apparently it struck a nerve in some folks. My mistake lmfao.
It’s a regular joke/meme that World War II and Mil History enjoyers are HOI players.
It doesn't matter if you have a PhD . If they have a couple of dozen buddies on their discord server then you are going to get dogpiled and downvoted to the basement.
As an aside, this image evokes a feeling of an enviable absence of distractions as he gets ready, I assume, to start his scribe work. No phones, TVs, etc. Man, I'm getting old :(
first time i noticed the earring
Ok Mr Ford, how about we don't the earrings today? NO! Earring Everyday!
Me when someone mentions Ukraine or WW2:
You've got your hands full lately then.
oh you have no idea... Say a line from Russia or Ukraine, say a line from stockpiles, say a line of losses and victories and gains and all that, propaganda, western (nationalist) ideas, and the political sentiment in the West, I've probably already heard it. WW2 is completely different, if you mention something from 1945, or bring up a point on the Eastern front, the German ideology and other stuff relating to the Germans and Soviets in during the war, I can guarantee you I have already heard that 10 times before I'm not gonna lie, it is exhausting, it really is, but they're so fun to look into. They really are. I can't wait for Ukraine to win so I can look from start to finish the war in its entirety.
What are your thoughts on Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction and future should they win?
Me when someone asks a question that's actually difficult and not related to military stuff: well shit Okay but no, in all seriousness. I'll admit, I'm not an economics guy, I prefer war and politics, how much this is connected is uncanny but anyway, so this answer is going to be quite vague and more of my opinion rather than actual fact, so take this with a pinch of salt and ready yourself for general answers. Ukraine is gonna have a hard time reconstructing, and it depends on who pays and who helps, I imagine a situation similar to the Marshall plan, where America sent 12 billion to reconstruct Europe, something similar will happen, but Europe will also help a great deal, and so Ukraine's reconstruction will probably be fast, Ukraine has repaired itself quickly by itself, so you can imagine that this would also be quick. Simply, Lots of money being pumped into Ukraine and a lot of people working on it, this would help not just Ukraine, but Europe and America, Ukraine's economy is firmly in the toilet, it is not having a good time, losing 30% of your economy in a year is crippling. So the reconstruction will be great for them, because not only does it take the costs for them away, it would also allow them to directly pump the money back into their economy, Russia is doing this and so is Ukraine, it's why their economies grew throughout this war ignoring the first losses, economically, fantastic, even better if it's from the Russian banks in the West who hold 300 billion dollars. That would help everyone. If Russia pays, well, I really don't like that, Russia's economy is already bad, and it will have a shitshow occur when it pulls back. Add on an extra 300 billion, or 15% of Russia's economy, and that would cripple them, at best, they would be crippled for the next 20 years, at worse, you could see a more nationalist movement in Russia but you know it's not really that different from now. Simply, economically, it'll be fine. Not perfect, but fine. As for the future of Ukraine? There are so many different things that could happen its hilarious. Simply, Ukraine becomes a corner stone of NATO and its defence in the Western world, the Ukrainians will teach how Russians fight and all that other jazz, and it will be a massive political win for the world, they showed they will not stand for aggression, and this will put off other invasions that could happen. Russia will be furious, but there's nothing they can do, they already think they're fighting NATO, if they lose, it will be proof to them they can't win. And it will deter any further aggression, Russia would also become more isolated, their allies will abandon them, at least most of them will, their nation would become China's puppet essentially. Or potential puppet, especially if they lose all of their equipment in Ukraine. That's what i got to say on it.
It’s a great answer, thanks a lot
Could you explain some important truths I should consider before forming an opinion on this particular conflict? I believe that you could provide information that would enhance the clarity and depth of my perspective.
To be honest, I'm not sure. You already know the basics, Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 because the Ukrainians got rid of their pro-Russian government, Russia then attacked and tried to get Donetsk and Luhansk, invaded again, full scale this time in 2022, the Russians, massively underprepared, got absolutely fucked in the first couple of weeks, that's why I think the early war was so successful for Ukraine, we were looking at a paper bear, sure, but the Russian army didn't know what was going on. Kherson and Kharkiv were massive victories for Ukraine and really the last Ukrainian victories, at least in the sense of taking land. Russian losses exploded throughout 2023 and continue to today, with last month seeing nearly 30,000 Russians as casualties, this has been the case since January And at this point, Russia is running out of time, they do not have enough supplies or equipment to win, but they do not have the industrial strength to replace their losses, so they pull from stockpiles, which are going down and will deplete at some point, put it like this, for every tank Russia makes, Ukraine knocks out 3-4. And from independent sources from Telegram, Russia in the last day, and has been suffering this since the Kharkiv offensive this year, not 2022's when Ukraine was attacking, this year. The telegram sources suggest 3-4 tank kills a day, 6-7 are abandoned, and 8-9 are damaged. Simply, Russian losses are too great for them to continue at this pace for the next two or three years.
Isn't the biggest problem at this point that Ukraine is also struggling with their losses? If what I've read is accurate then Ukraine has been under-equiped for quite a while, with the situation slowly starting to improve due to increased help from the EU and USA (which should've been available earlier, but politics is a messy hell). But besides that they're also having some issues with getting enough manpower to replenish the losses that they've suffered. And if this is all true, it's just another war of attrition. Which may not be favorable to Ukraine as they have a smaller manpower pool than Russia, and ultimately manpower is the deciding factor. But hopefully Ukraine will hold and come out victorious.
Yes. I can't even disagree with that. Ukraine struggles with losses as well, and replacing them, they are in a better position though because, they're being supplied by the West, and are getting help with industry. Manpower pool isn't nearly as important as people think. People look at population and immediately think, more power or more ability to fight, the war isn't popular in Russia, well it could be but Russians don't want to fight, and Ukraine is being invaded, they will get the manpower because they don't really have much of a choice. A war of attrition still needs weapons, and Russia is running out of that, and no amount of manpower will win the war. China in WW2 had two to three times the Japanese army, and nearly 7x the population, they barely moved the front line. only really getting it going after 1944
I hadn't really thought about it that way. Let's just hope that the west continues to supply Ukraine with the equipment they need.
Remember, use history as a base of ideas, and then connect paraells and make assumptions and guesses from there. Yes that does include the history of this current war, Vuhledar is one that I will never forget. 2022 December, everyone was terrified Russia was going to steamroll it, and now, they haven't even captured, even today it is still Ukrainian
Thanks for taking the time to write this. I am from the west and I try my best to view every conflict as neutral as possible, despite being aware that Russia has been a pain in the ass for over centuries for the rest of europe. With this in mind, how would you respond if I said that this conflict could be resolved if we did a ceasefire, followed by negotiations in terms of land distribution? I mean, best case scenario from this point forward is to stop the fight immediately. Men are dying, all the economies are taking a blow, people are suffering and infrastructure is being blown to pieces. I know Russia's economy is jackshit, but they do have a lot of land with natural resources + a good relationship with China. Also, our economy might be super powerful but don't forget the USA paid more in interest than military spending last year. The reason why I think giving the land east of the Dnipro river to Russia is the best solution is because A. Almost every has shown their effort by now that you can't continue to disrupt our peace this way, B. The faster we stop this, the better, C. Before the fall of the USSR Ukraine was part of Russia for over 2 centuries and consist about 1/3th of the population of Russia and D. If you look at it pragmatically, back when there was a wall that separated Berlin somewhat "solved" any further provocation. It gave some definitive borders for the time being
How did Hitler respond when he was given the Sudetenland, remember, he did not have enough ammunition to fight a war at that time. How did Japan respond when it took Northern China How did Italy respond when no one did anything against Ethiopia How did the Soviet Union respond when no one did anything about the invasion of Afghanistan, or the forceful taking of Eastern Europe, or when they invaded Ukraine in the civil war How did Russia respond when it made peace in the Donbass region, wrote it out and signed it? They broke it, literally as soon as it went into affect. To give a genocidal dictator what they want is suicide, not just for you, but for Ukraine, Russia is starving Mariupol at the moment, and has forcibly kidnapped 700,000 children from Ukraine, that's what Russia says they've done, That is the definition of genocide. I am telling you now, Russian war crimes are sick at best, rapes, murders, torture, sexual abuse, kidnapping, and destruction of entire cities are some of the better things they've done when it was just to adults. Putin wants all of Ukraine, he will not stop just because we give him half of it. And my last point of it, he thinks he's fighting NATO, as in, NATO has deployed its full force against him in Ukraine and he is fighting it. If Ukraine loses, NATO loses in his eyes, and that will make him think winning against NATO, who he has just supposedly beaten, would be easy Simply. Making peace is a suicide mission, history shows this, Putin shows this and Ukraine knows it. Ukraine will not exist, it's people will be murdered and brutalised, and NATO itself will be invaded if Putin wins in Ukraine. If you got peace, prepare for war If you got war, prepare for peace
Thanks a lot!!!!!!!!! This is what I desperately needed. I swear I can't thank you enough. the importance of neutrality is so deep ingrained in my being for some reason that I actually struggle to choose a side as opposed to most people, that tend to struggle _not_ choosing a side. Anyway that first paragraph blew me away. You're absolutely right. Again, thanks a lot!!
> Putin wants all of Ukraine and will not stop Coincidentally, the idea I wrote was basically inspired by this implication. Because Putin will not stop, and because the west could continue this defense position for quite some time, I personally think it's inevitable to reach a point where basically both of our economies have suffered massive damage Knowning this, is negotiating really not possible? That was my question. You answered it in the best way possible tho. My original rationalization is flawed in every way possible
Last thing: God damnit all this crap breaks my heart. At least the scientists up there in the ISS (the ones doing the actual work that we actually should be doing anno 2024) are still working together. I think we humans should really start to live like _as if_ aliens existed. Then we could at the very least have a potentially realistic "judge" that could keep us in line. Religion is dying and it's clearly showing. (Im not religious btw but I do think it has been fundamental in terms of providing additional moral/ethics to humanity)
That is basically 2014 re Crimea… which led to what in 2022?
Yeah its inevitable. Like I said, 1/3th of the total population lives there, has an enormously important geographical location and it was basically lost after the USSR fell in the 90's There is no way in hell Russia would let that one slide. Not even if it meant going to war massively underprepared combined such an pathetic economy. (As we've seen) I am not afraid of Russia. I am more afraid of more powerful nations with whom Russia has more favorable alliances. The west has been in a steady decline in its geopolitical relationships with these countries.
How will you convince Ukrainians to such concessions? Just curious
Well, you either seal the deal and end this crap or continue risking it for either a win or a lose If Ukrain splits up and russia only gets half, everyone loses. Rather make everyone lose than risk of having a win-lose situation
Except you forgot to mention that Russia is literally advancing on all fronts.. they do replenish their ammunition to some extent clearly because they have fire superiority on multiple fronts with battery fire. In some cases they have entire factories making plastic cased ammunition destined to be shipped off and stored very little time before being used. I'm sorry but your opinion is just nafo optimism. Literally the biggest tank factory in the world is in Russia. The longer the war goes on the less support Ukraine will get over time. Ukraine should consider signing a treaty regarding NATO, the donbass, and their future sovereignty
Ukraine doesn't get a choice here, they either win, or they die. This isn't a war, this is a genocide shown as a war. Yes Russia is making advances. Don't ask how much land the Soviets gained after WW2, or how much Germany had in WW2 and WW1, don't ask about Napoleon, no, land means winning because I said so. I'm sorry I just hate that line of thought. rUsSiA aDvAnCiNg? tHeY wInNiNg?!?! No. land does not mean shit in a war. Napoleon literally and allied all of Europe outside of the Southern Balkans, and still lost. Germany became one of the biggest empires in history during WW2 and died, with a vengeance. Germany in WW1 literally conquered Russia, and took the most economical parts of Russia, and still lost. The size of the empire doesn't mean anything. Russia is advancing slower than a snail, I am not making that, a snail would literally be at Kyiv by this time if it started in Luhansk. And Russia is losing everything, they have lost thousands of tanks, their artillery losses could be as high as 10,000, and they have almost nothing to show for it. They have conquered 900 squared kilometres in 8 months, only at a cost of 240,000 men and 4000 vehicles. That is not something any nation could sustain, you wouldn't Italy could? No, Russia's is the same size, yeah sure the Russian economy is more war focused, but even if Italy had the Russian industry, it could not sustain this war, why would Russia be any different? They replace their ammunition, barely, they are producing 2.5 million shells a year, they fire 3.65 million a year. Ukraine has told the West repeatedly they only need 2.5 million a year, and that will happen by the end of 2025 And what difference does it make that Russia has the biggest tank factory? It's the biggest? Cool, it makes 400 from scratch a year, they've lost on average 1500 a year. Ukraine has lost 850 at the low end, high end about 1200 from the beginning of this invasion. Russian losses are not sustainable, they have lost more T-55's in this year than they have in the last two. They are getting desperate, and offensives show this, Kharkiv, stopped literally 10km into Ukraine, and now they're talks of another attack from Belgorod again. They had to ask North Korea for more shells, North Korea gave 5 million, again, that depletes Russian artillery, Russian artillery isn't getting destroyed. It just can't replace the barrels, so they simply rip it off old guns and send them to war. Ukrainian support is also not going down, over the last couple of months it's gone up and Europe is pretty much, support Ukraine, even if it hurts us, 64%, and this is the lowest statistic, support military equipment to Ukraine. 91% for humanitarian aid. The idea that it is, is again, not really founded in reality, hell even America is starting its tune on it, America, like, come on. "Ukraine should consider signing a treaty regarding NATO, the donbass, and their future sovereignty" And finally, this shit. Ukraine is Ukraine, why can't Russia just pull back? Why must it be Ukraine will pays for the price of the Russian aggression? Why can't Russia pull back and leave Ukraine the fuck alone. Russian peace is not peace, it's a want to rebuild their army to attack again, they did this in Minsk II, before it was even signed, they tried to push on the city they said they wouldn't, then they claimed the West broke the agreement so they had too. Russian peace is, give us more land than we have captured, which is your most economical land, and without it would leave you fucked for any further aggression, demilitarise Ukraine, no army basically. And agree to never join NATO. I wonder why Putin doesn't want to have peace where Ukraine can join NATO. Their future sovereignty is decided by Kyiv, and they have said it will be whole Ukraine, or the war continues. This is a Russian attack meant to destroy Ukraine, if someone was going to kill you, no matter what you did, which you surrender and let them do horrible things to you and your family, or would you fight and defend them? Ukraine doesn't get a choice here, it's surrender now and die, if you're lucky, or fight and die. The Soviet Union was in the same situation, and the reason we aren't German is because despite them losing 10's of millions of people, they didn't surrender, why should Ukraine now? Ukraine will win this, Russian advances are taking less ground for more losses than ever before, the situation for them has only gotten worse since the year began, and Ukraine is now getting the supplies it needs to fight. Ukraine was literally the weakest it will ever be, and Russia could not breakthrough, not even on the tactical level, how the fuck are they meant to now? Where the F-16's come, when the shells come in and when the Western allies send more equipment? How many Ukrainian children, women and men have to die before we learn the lesson? You cannot negotiate with an enemy who wants to kill you
russian artillery production was at it's highest in 1917. Little fact that is in no way hints on anything
Quick question, do you have any idea how many artillery barrels Russia could make nowadays?
Not enough for sure. When they will run out of scrap barrels they are fucked.
We have a real Hearts of Iron expert over here, watch out fellas.
Is that a joke or?
Yes, but apparently it struck a nerve in some folks. My mistake lmfao. It’s a regular joke/meme that World War II and Mil History enjoyers are HOI players.
It kind of did for me, because you know, I am a hoi4 player, but fair enough, I get ya mate.
So am I lmao
You are an i****. You just have to read the reports from back then to see this stuff
Just curious, why censor the word “idiot”?
It’s in case mods get mad
The mods aren't gonna get mad about you calling him an idiot lol
I’ve seen and heard about worse
Bold of you to assume that your knowledge can defeat my ignorance.
It doesn't matter if you have a PhD . If they have a couple of dozen buddies on their discord server then you are going to get dogpiled and downvoted to the basement.
I don't argue with the ignorati because of Marcus Aurelius' advice: let reasonable disposition move reasonable disposition.
Dropping Marcus Aurelius quotes on these hoes
"You know the Emancipation Proclamation didn't actually free a single slave."
Me when someone mentions military hardware and tries to pretend russia is still comparable to the west
Eh they just talk over you and do it loudly until you give up.
Look at my pfp and guess which subject I’m utterly autistic about lmao
Ww2/korean war is my favorite era to learn about lol
That man looks incredibly similar to my dead grandfather
When someone talks about how TWA 800 was shot down by missile.
As an aside, this image evokes a feeling of an enviable absence of distractions as he gets ready, I assume, to start his scribe work. No phones, TVs, etc. Man, I'm getting old :(
Me when somebody tells me that Czechoslovakia was the agressor in the war for Těšín.
me when someone mentions tanks or planes lol