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**I don’t think that would change under AV or most proportional systems (unless you’d did larger multi-seat constituencies).**
**It’s not because the Lib Dem’s are doing particularly well in FPTP as much as Reform are doing uniquely shit.**
The Lib Dems aren’t like the SNP where they can got a small percentage entirely concentrated in a few dozen seats and are able to dwarf every other small party and **get more than their share** because of it, like the SNP did in 2019 with their 48 seats and less than 4% of the share.
But when comparing them to Reform it can help to see them as a less extreme version.
The Lib Dem’s fill a niche as a viable alternative to the Tories in more economically centre-right areas. Perfect for wealthy, socially progressive areas where labour doesn’t have the same broad appeal.
The areas where they can win are clearly defined by history and even just by observation.
Reform don’t fill a niche other than: “pretty racist, a bit sexist”. Their voter base is literally just the racist, stupid part of the Tory base. Anyone can be a stupid racist, regardless of background.
They’ve never really had such a large percentage so there’s uncertainty in where they can win either.
**In the end, a lot of progressive people just don’t care if it’s Labour, Lib Dem’s or whoever as long as it’s not Tory or reform. They’re just sick of the right fucking up the country.**
That really helps Lib Dem’s as strategic voting helps them. What’s interesting is that unity would also help in an AV system too, not just in FPTP).
**Meanwhile Reform are also sick of the Tories, but don’t have any similarities with the rest**, so many of them wouldn’t even put a Tory down second in a ranked choice system. Either way they’re just going to split the vote and a lot of them wouldn’t put Tories second in an AV/ multiple choice system.
**I also doubt most of the remaining less racist Tories would want to vote for reform too.**
It’s also a leadership issue. Farage is very popular amongst his base, we’ve seen his return has brought more people to the party, but he’s also absolutely hated by a lot of people outside of it.
43% of people think he’d be a “terrible” prime minister, 12% said “bad”, only 27% said either good or great. So most people would actively avoid putting his party second.
**Unless we had multi-seat constituencies, I think we’d still see a similar thing with reform behind LD.**
As a Lib Dem activist, it’s been notable how focused the party has been on throwing resources just at winnable seats and campaigning for years to build up teams in those areas. This is how small parties have to do FPTP - ensuring your 12% vote share is efficiently distributed (ie better to get 45% share in 8% of the seats that result in a win than getting 30% share in 30% of the seats and coming second). The test of whether this works is this election - if it doesn’t then I think the LD project will be in trouble.
Starmer has done much the same nationally - the vote share might look similar to past elections but it’s not clustered in Labour heartlands.
We already saw it with UKIP people who thought it was a lot right-wing people when it also had a lot of left-leaning people.
Let say say all reform voters stop voting , tories would most likely go up in terms of %.
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/5453-analysis-ukip-voters
60% around conservative. If you were around at UKIP's peak labour was also worried about UKIP's rise.
By my reckoning we're two seats away from being able to walk from Lands End to John O'Groats without ever stepping foot inside a Conservative constituency.
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Lib Dems getting a record number of MPs on barely half the vote share they had in 2010. FPTP finally doing them a favour.
Nah, they’re still getting screwed. 12% of the vote but less than 12% of the seats.
The exact share probably matters less than the fact they'd be the third biggest party without having the third most votes.
I’m perfectly happy for Reform to spend 40 years to figure out how to beat this problem, like the LibDems have!
Their plan is to hold the Conservative Party hostage by splitting the vote and then take over
**I don’t think that would change under AV or most proportional systems (unless you’d did larger multi-seat constituencies).** **It’s not because the Lib Dem’s are doing particularly well in FPTP as much as Reform are doing uniquely shit.** The Lib Dems aren’t like the SNP where they can got a small percentage entirely concentrated in a few dozen seats and are able to dwarf every other small party and **get more than their share** because of it, like the SNP did in 2019 with their 48 seats and less than 4% of the share. But when comparing them to Reform it can help to see them as a less extreme version. The Lib Dem’s fill a niche as a viable alternative to the Tories in more economically centre-right areas. Perfect for wealthy, socially progressive areas where labour doesn’t have the same broad appeal. The areas where they can win are clearly defined by history and even just by observation. Reform don’t fill a niche other than: “pretty racist, a bit sexist”. Their voter base is literally just the racist, stupid part of the Tory base. Anyone can be a stupid racist, regardless of background. They’ve never really had such a large percentage so there’s uncertainty in where they can win either. **In the end, a lot of progressive people just don’t care if it’s Labour, Lib Dem’s or whoever as long as it’s not Tory or reform. They’re just sick of the right fucking up the country.** That really helps Lib Dem’s as strategic voting helps them. What’s interesting is that unity would also help in an AV system too, not just in FPTP). **Meanwhile Reform are also sick of the Tories, but don’t have any similarities with the rest**, so many of them wouldn’t even put a Tory down second in a ranked choice system. Either way they’re just going to split the vote and a lot of them wouldn’t put Tories second in an AV/ multiple choice system. **I also doubt most of the remaining less racist Tories would want to vote for reform too.** It’s also a leadership issue. Farage is very popular amongst his base, we’ve seen his return has brought more people to the party, but he’s also absolutely hated by a lot of people outside of it. 43% of people think he’d be a “terrible” prime minister, 12% said “bad”, only 27% said either good or great. So most people would actively avoid putting his party second. **Unless we had multi-seat constituencies, I think we’d still see a similar thing with reform behind LD.**
As a Lib Dem activist, it’s been notable how focused the party has been on throwing resources just at winnable seats and campaigning for years to build up teams in those areas. This is how small parties have to do FPTP - ensuring your 12% vote share is efficiently distributed (ie better to get 45% share in 8% of the seats that result in a win than getting 30% share in 30% of the seats and coming second). The test of whether this works is this election - if it doesn’t then I think the LD project will be in trouble. Starmer has done much the same nationally - the vote share might look similar to past elections but it’s not clustered in Labour heartlands.
Voting intention for this one: Labour: 39% Conservative: 22% Reform UK: 15% Lib Dem: 12% Green: 7% SNP: 3% Plaid Cymru: 1% Other: 2%
Conservative plus reform on 37 percent should scare everyone.
I dont think so because not all of that reform vote simply goes to Conseratives.
Remind me in 2029
We already saw it with UKIP people who thought it was a lot right-wing people when it also had a lot of left-leaning people. Let say say all reform voters stop voting , tories would most likely go up in terms of %. https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/5453-analysis-ukip-voters 60% around conservative. If you were around at UKIP's peak labour was also worried about UKIP's rise.
Why when Labour, Lib Dem and Green are on 58?
Because those three will never merge but the Tories and Reform will happily reaggregate
Now that Reform ltd are owned by Farage and they will have at least a couple of MPs, will Farage really want to let go that little bit of power?
Conservatives being the largest minority influences a lot of their policies.
By my reckoning we're two seats away from being able to walk from Lands End to John O'Groats without ever stepping foot inside a Conservative constituency.
The Scottish border always let's us down
Reform possibly winning the constituency I used to live in is scary
Would very much like to see more Green seats but I really hope they get that Bristol target seat of theirs, and hold Brighton!
That would be great. Would like both Sian Berry and Carla Denyer in the commons
Good for Plaid?