Exactly, I heard this same shit in 2016.
This post is so delusional that I am convinced it’s written by GOP supporters wanting us to not bother to vote.
Not just close, we lost a seat in the senate with Manchin retiring. He’s in a hard red zone so it’s a miracle they were voting for a Democrat at all, it’s gonna be a Republican next.
After that, every purple state with a seat running has a Democrat in it, so we have to get a perfect game in order to keep the senate blue.
Eh, I bet on trump to win in 2016 because it was pretty clear Trump had way more support than the media wanted to portray.
I agree with pretty much the entirety of the OP, I don't think it's exaggerating much, just a bit hyperbolic. I don't see how Trump gained support since the last election, and I'm very skeptical that Biden is going to get less support than last time--few people were thrilled to vote for him last time, he had basically no voter enthusiasm but still won due to people not wanting Trump.
Now he's had a decent presidency without major scandals in the eyes of anyone not already in the tank for Trump. Since last election, January 6th has turned off a lot of Republicans willing to hold their nose and vote trump in that election. He's only become more unhinged. His supporters only more radical and off-putting to everyone else Trump needs votes from to win.
(ETA: Roe v Wade being overturned truly surprised me because it seems like such a totally obvious own-goal by the GOP. They have benefitted for generations from the apathy of pro-choice people who didn't think that would happen. Now those people are desperate to cast their vote. This imho is going to *strongly* affect turnout, and very much to the benefit of Democrats.)
But please, vote, this is the best chance we've ever had to stick the knife deep into the GOP.
Also it’s going to be razor thin margins.
Anyone paying attention can tell you that the disinformation campaign encouraging young people not to vote and for independents to vote for right wing funded spoilers like RFK and Jill Stein is working incredibly well.
Every vote matters
It was insanely effective in 2016. The message from republicans to democrats was “hey, Trump doesn’t stand a chance so there’s no need going out to vote. Plus Hillary is under investigation so you aren’t gonna feel good if you vote for her and she gets convicted. Just stay home and enjoy your non dairy mocha biscotti frappuccino and gluten free dairy free creme brulee!” and it f’ing worked. Hillary’s numbers were incredibly low.
I saw more than a few Facebook posts and Reddit comments back then that could basically be paraphrased as "I'm staying at home/voting Third Party because I don't like Clinton and nobody is stupid enough to vote for Trump".
Then they screamed their heads off and complained the entire four years. Like, you enabled this, maybe you need to shut up, think about what you did, and not do it again.
And now people are lining up to do it again, except replace Clinton with Biden, despite the fact that it looks like this round is going to be even more extreme than the first if Trump gets elected.
It is not plausible to imagine the Republicans will disappear quietly. They are powered by ..well [more money than Han Solo can imagine](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/22/us/politics/republican-dark-money.html), anyway. (And that's just the money from ONE guy. He's not giving just a portion of this year's income, he's giving the life savings of a literal billionaire.
Money that used to be given "for the advancement of science" is being given to unearth and reanimate every form of evil we have buried since the days of the Pyramids. "[Turn back the clock, it's conservative, and we're takin' our money to the land of the Undead!](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donors_Trust)"
It will be interesting because Biden's stance on the Israeli-Palestinian war hurts his efforts with young voters and RFK's entrance will siphon votes away from P01135809.
It isn't just misinformation campaigns, people are frustrated with Biden and tired of being party to the slaughter of innocents oversees and our mass manufacturing of weapons, while renewable energy development stalls and Healthcare remains criminally expensive, housing costs are out of control, people are drowning in debt. He has signaled repeatedly that he does not care enough to work on ANYTHING important to average Americans. It doesn't matter that Trump is worse because to the American people Biden is saying "I won't even work for your vote".
It is so taken for granted that we will all vote blue out of fear for Trump that the democrats are going mask off on their priorities and their thoughts about zionism or the economy. THAT is what is disenfranchising so many people.
I get texted every other day from representatives of the DNC and various democratic elected officials. Or "pollsters". They all say they want my opinion, want to know where I lean, who I will vote for and why. Inevitable every single one leads to a donation page THAT WILL NOT SUBMIT MY OPINIONS UNLESS I DONATE. Then they send threatening messages "We will put you down as a Trump voter if you do not reply!" What the fuck is that supposed to mean!? If I don't spend money on their campaigns they will lie and say I am voting for Trump?
The state of elections is so fucking bad and it takes absolutely no misinformation at this point to drive people away from voting. There are no choices left. Democracy is dying at the federal level.
Not just vote, but for the right guy
I got a parent voting for brain worm guy cause they aren’t happy with the other one… just ugh if that fucker gets 7% protest vote or whatever it could be a kiss of death
I believe Biden will hold all the states he carried in 2020 and he will pick up NC as well. I do believe the house will flip blue but only by a dozen or so seats, and I believe dems will pick up two seats in the senate but will lose one (Manchin).
I do believe it will be close in the potus election but not as close as 2020. I believe swing state margins will be larger for Biden than last time
Down ballot I do believe the GOP is going to suffer because of the fascist bent of the maga movement coupled with the ‘let’s punish women’ movement.
I think we may be surprised in the Senate. Every now and then there's a game-changing election that surprises everyone. Ive been voting for several decades, and its happened at least a couple times i can remember. This feels like one of those times, even more than before. I think the Republicans are in for a blood bath.
And if that happens, Biden should take that mandate seriously, and make his mark on history by adding 4 seats to the SCOTUS, and leading the impeachments of Alito and Thomas, and the prosectution of them along with Thomas' bulldog wife for Sedition and Insurrection.
The last time, both sides learned that guns would have made a big difference, so the next time, both sides will show up armed to the teeth. The difference is that military weapons make whatever MAGAturds have look like Fisher-Price toys.
Also, I doubt they'll try to attack the Capitol next time, they'll go after the White House, and they don't play around at 1600 PA. They've got machine gun nests and rocket launchers and helicopter gun ships and more. They wont be able to identify TRAITORS until they put the pieces back together like Legos.
I don’t know the other races but I worry about Sharrod Brown and Tester. They are both in deep red states. They are likable but with the extremism of the GOP I don’t know if that’s enough.
Ohio voted to enshrine abortion rights in their state constitution. The republican led state legislature has basically shit all over the will of the voters. And now they’re trying to keep the current incumbent president off the ballot. Ohio is daring independents and dems to show up.
Tester is extremely popular and incumbents are hard to topple in the US.
I think Tester is more precarious, but I also think Cruz in Texas and Scott im Florida are not exactly safe, even though they should be given their states’ deep red status.
I lived in Montana for several years. People forget that for a very long time Montana was split party- wise on the two senators, had a GOP rep and a Dem governor.
Blue dog dems come out to vote for Tester reliably. It’s going to be close, but Montanans, of all the people and states I’ve lived in, truly believe in individualism and tend to lean toward individual rights regardless of party.
My only fear is that like states like Idaho and Florida, GOP leadership during the pandemic seemed to collect people from blue states that took refuge from states like Washington, Oregon and California during the pandemic and can have a major impact on the electorate considering the last time Tester ran was 2018.
>and I believe dems will pick up two seats in the senate but will lose one (Manchin).
Which two seats do you think they pick up? Texas and Florida are the closest I can see, and those will be tough.
Its gonna be a total unmitigated disaster for GOP, no chance they dont totally lose power after this election, provided nothing insane happens between now and November.
The all or nothing nature of US politics means even a small shift in bidens favor has massive ramifications for the opposition. I think the past 4 years have built up a large shift in his favor. GOP Is going nuclear baby, count on it.
You forgot about the election rigging by state GOPs in GA FL OH NC AZ PA. They’re trying to limit voting in cities, and removing people from voter rolls. Plus they’re eliminating polling stations and mail in voting as much as possible. That’s going to skew numbers back to GOP. Biden will win but it’ll be tight and contested. Trump and GOP will refuse to accept the results and we may end up in a full on revolt/insurrection. Bigger than 1/6/21
Yea election interfernce skull duggery is the NO.1 issue for this election, not the threat of actually losing it fairly. MAGA prolly will throw a tantrum yea but once its illustrated just how outnumbered and unpopluar the fascist movement is many will just shut up and sit down. There will prolly be violence though, i agree with that.
After Jan 6th. MAGA isn’t stupid enough to try violence again. Just look at the nonexistent crowds showing up to Trump’s trial! You think the Gravy Seals are gearing up to try and overthrow an election again?
What little violence will be unfortunately no more than the shit we have daily in this country.
They had a shit ton of people at his rally in The Bronx yesterday and NYC is usually blue. Don’t under estimate the MAGATs getting riled up because they lost the election again and claim it was “rigged.”
We need to send in the national guard to open the polling stations back up like they did during the civil rights era. The scumbag racists always come back to the same old tricks.
I envy your optimism but let’s remember, Trump isn’t running to appeal to voters and win an election, he’s running to cheat an election. Prepare for every dirty trick in the book and then some.
He's running to stay out of prison. He'll make his version of a concession speech from his jet on the way back to the Home Office in Moscow.
#Dosvedanya
No way Biden gets Texas or Florida or Ohio. I agree that Biden will win, but to predict he'll win almost every state, you discredited this entire post.
The more red voters that flee to red states for a "better life" the less they will swing anything. The phenomenon has already resulted in massive population changes.
Ohio is trying to keep Biden off the ballot. No way he gets ohio. Hell we will be voting for the second time on a map considered unconstitutional by the Supreme Court in Ohio. The GOP just keeps running the clock out and nothing is done about it.
People are moving from California to Texas. That should tell you something.
Women are being treated like second class citizens by Texas Republicans and it is getting a lot of media attention. That should tell you something.
Women are not going to go back to before they had reproductive rights, and the GOP has made it pretty clear that's the direction they want to send this country. That should tell you something.
Ignore all the noise- GOP is doomed.
People who like how Texas acts more than cali acts, are moving to Texas.
It’s not random progressives from SF it’s angry middle management guys from Redding
The GOP is in a lose lose situation in the long run regardless. If they lose, it's going to keep heading the direction of their demise as their voters get older, new voters come in, and biden can level things out with SCOTUS picks and good legislation..
If Trump wins, and reproductive rights get hammered, he goes full or even semi fash and starts dismantling the goverment, and heck knows what else.
That will galvanise ALOT of people to the "left/liberal" side. His last presidency swung alot of people left, and left wing ideology had a boom. Another Trump presidency and the chaos that ensues would make this happen again but on steroids. It would also destroy the GOPs future for quite some time as the dems would just be able to point to "that" and it would turn alot of people away, or galvanise them against it. Nobody voted for the nazi party in Germany afterwards because of how negatively associated they were. Same theoretical principles will apply.
It doesn't matter which happens. The GOP will sink either way. That's why they are getting increasing desperate and putting all their eggs in the Trump basket. They are hoping that they can pull some miracle off where it doesn't end badly for them. But the reality is, the worst Trump goes (if he wins), the more it will hurt them.
Their best option, and only option really is to have him win, and then hamstring the fk out of him so that he runs a really plain, moderate term. But do you think that's gonna happen? 🤣
Win or lose. The GOP are fucked, it all just depends on which avenue they take and how painful the rough period that ensues is.
Dont be so sure, if georgia can go blue so can texas and Florida. I know this isnt either of those states, by here in MI a former heavy trump county just voted in a democrat with a 63% vote or something. So if that one county can flip THAT hard, im not gonna be surprised when texas and Florida come blue, watch man, have faith!
As a Floridian, Florida won't turn blue this election cycle or any other time. Blue voters move out of Florida now because cost of living is so high there is no reason to stay and battle it out. Also, hurricanes and shit. Anyone I know who isn't diehard red but is still here has plans to move and is stuck for one reason or another at this moment.
For Texas -
2020 D 46.5% R 52.1%
2016 D 43.2% R 52.2%
2012 D 41.4% R 57.2%
Taking the last 3 presidential elections in account. Linear regression tells us the next one should be
2024 D 48.8% R 48.7%
It'll be close. But possible.
Ohio only looks red as hell because it’s gerrymandered to hell. It’s really only 1-2 percentage points from being a toss up.
In the last year they passed a state constitutional amendment to protect the right for women to choose and also to move toward recreational marijuana - both by a landslide.
That doesn’t mean it’s a 50/50 state for Biden, but it’s definitely not in “no chance in hell” territory either.
Trump carried the state with 53% in 2020 however if that support dips into the 51% range or within the margin of error, Biden could have a shot there as well - and considering Sherrod Brown needs to defend his senate seat anyway, the Dems will no doubt be spending a chunk of their heavy monetary advantage in ad buys as we get closer to the November.
Work in hotel industry in Florida, we're expecting a big push in October from RNC hosting tons of events. Heard some outrageous stat that the number of registered republicans in Florida has jumped by like 500K in Florida since the last election. Everyone moving to this state is red.
edit: just saw his #2 reason for not voting for Biden was... Palestine?? lol OP is out to lunch. Trump is a very real threat and people writing posts like this assuming it's a Biden landslide show that some people learned nothing from 2016. Get out and vote people.
I disagree. It will be close. Republicans are a cult. They will vote Republican no matter what. And a large slice of Republicans are eager for Fascism, because they don't believe the hammer will fall on them or people they care about.
Maga is a cult yes, but the republican party of yesteryear is dead, this election will illustrate that. All weve seen the past years are old heads saying theyre done with the party. Think mitt romney. They couldnt win before the Mitt Romneys left. Now the Mitts are leaving and a bunch of people died sucking horse paste.
GOP is dead, yes sirrrr.
I have watched a few of these things play out in real time. The republicans always come home. And every cycle, as we head into the summer the media mentions this possibility that the group that just lost the primary won’t come back to their party. It never happens. This will be a very close election. So vote.
People like Mitt Romney may be distancing themselves but he is one vote. The actual voters that make up the Republican Party (and even independents that lean republican) have fallen in step with this new Republican Party for the most part. And even if they don’t like it, they still hate democrats way more and would never vote for them and will still vote republican. Many polls show republicans view democrats as a larger threat to the US than Russia, China, etc.
I love your optimism to think voters in the US are rational, but they simply aren’t. The conservative media apparatus has a huge captive audience that lives in a different reality and trump has shown his scandals and other misdeeds simply don’t matter. This election is going to be very close and honestly right now if I were a betting man and had to choose I’d put my money on trump. Which terrifies me.
Not true at all.
I voted Republican many times, but this current group is an abomination. They need to be cleared out. They have had the House majority, and have done literally nothing useful for the nation.
Trump? He’s a weak psychotic creep. I’m ashamed that I didn’t see through his facade, and actually voted for him over Hillary. I thought that a change would not be a bad thing, and how much damage could he do in four years. Wow, was I short-sighted.
Biden is an effective President, and a decent human. There is literally zero comparison, and it’s not just him, his whole administration has been outstanding.
While I agree that biden will win and the democrats will take both houses, it won't be a landslide. In fact, don't expect a landslide anytime soon. The country is too polarized.
Republicans never win the popular vote. I think they did as basically a show of unity after 9/11 and in Reagan’s second term but it’s always the democrats that demolish the popular vote. Republican politics are becoming less and less popular as time goes on due to their rhetoric. I think after this election they will shift back to more traditional conservative values and not this ‘make liberals cry lol’ shit that has cost them every election since 2016 including midterms.
Yeah it’s because they know they are untouchable in red states. They only have one perform in 1 or two purple states.
Moral: move to a red state and infiltrate the fascism. Then vote.
Theyve gone too far. I think they are for a rude awakening when they realise they can't drag their voters back too a more moderate degree.
They've spent way too much time brainwashing them into being scared of trans genders and "wokeness" that I legimately think they've passed a point of no return. It will take generations to fix this level of fuck up.
People don't really consider the irreparable damage that has been done to the psyche of some of these people. They've been so propagandised to the point that they now functionally live in a state of media induced psychosis.
They might try to pivot and cool things down, but the damage is already done. The base has run away from the politicians, and to repair this damage is going to take a longggg time.
Imo, Ruppert Murdoch and FOX media executives should he put on trial for crimes against humanity. They've cooked people's brains with so much propaganda to the point of delusion.
That's fucked up. That kinda shit needs to he stamped out. The world needs to establish some new human rights surrounding media based attacks and propaganda. We can't just go cooking peoples minds with fear mongering to the point they live in a world that is so foundationally disconnected from reality.
I'm a researcher in the social sciences and this Trump era of politics is going to be one of the most heavily studied phenomenon in modern history. The effects of media on the human mind has become a weapon for political purposes on a spectrum that we've never seen before.
There's always been propaganda, and some propaganda is acceptable. Like propaganda to foster a HEALTHY level of nationalism, stories of heroism and legends of bravery. For example I come from Australia and we have a famous tale of a soldier during the first world war called "Simpson and his donkey". All Australians know it, and it represents a tale of bravery, determination, and mateship.
This is still by definition "propaganda", but it's not necessarily 'dangerous' propaganda. There are degrees of propaganda we can let slide as they don't foster dangerous concequences.
The propaganda that modern media networks are deploying, ESPECIALLY conservative/rw content is going too far. It's passed the realm of acceptable and into realm of dangerous.
A prime example of this, is our "sky news". Which is Murdoch owned and essentially Australia's version of FOX. Yet this channel has more American viewers than it does Australian by a pretty decent margin, it's actually directed more to American audiences.
If you turn sky news on, or watch a few YouTube segments you'll pick up on it quick.
The language they use, the tonality, the way they shape narratives is INCREDIBLY toxic. It's nasty, it's vile and filled with so much venom. Now small doses of exposure aren't too much of a big deal. The issue comes when people consume this kind of content day in day out.
That level of exposure to toxic metewaves can do some serious damage to people's psyche. It slowly starts to make the viewers toxic, and share these vile views. The same can he said for the impact of fox, sky news is just that tad more dialed up.
The issue isn't Trump. He just happened to be the vessel this all accumulated through. The issue is the media and the damage it is doing to people's minds. The GOP and their media conspirators have gone too far and cooked too many people. As I said, they will try to cool it and return to more moderate traditional narratives, but it's not gonna work.
They passed the point of no return I'm afraid.
Right now Karli Lake is down 12 points in arizona senate polling. In all the polls.
So do you believe that 20 percent of people in arizona are going to split ticket Trump/Gallageo?
Or do you believe that the polling that says Trump and Biden are even in Arizona give or take a point or two are flawed?
Or do you think that all the arizona senate polling is off by triple the margin of error?
It’s not a slam dunk, but given 2022 being a flop year for republicans when midterms are usually wave elections for the party out of power, and special elections coming up democrat by 10-20 percent more then biden won in 2020: My money is the pollsters, trying not to underestimate trump support again, might have overcorrected in their methods.
Not going to happen. Half this country votes with regularity and with religious loyalty and they don't care which jack ass happens to be pulling the cart at the time
Nah. I do think Biden will win, but the map will look pretty similar to 2020. The Republians just have too many institutional advantages, and if their voters didn't jump ship when they nominated a game show host with no political experience who grabs women by the pussy, they're never gonna. They could nominate a tree stump, and as long as they stick a pin on the side that says "life begins at conception" they're getting 200 electoral votes.
It doesn’t matter what happens, the GOP will go bankrupt, with Trump both in charge of the RNC, and their candidate, they are BLEEDING money.
When Trump started he had close to 100 million, they are down to 8 million, and that money has been used to campaign for EVERYONE running under the RNC banner.
No matter the result, they will be out of money.
Let me say that while folks are certainly outraged about Palestine, will they put themselves out to dry by staying home on election day? Seems immature and self defeating to me. As someone who is upset about what is happening to Palestinians, I will be voting Biden, and then trying to affect change with my voice, in an appeal to his administration. Those who think trump will do anything better for Palestine is a fool.
You’re onto something I’ve been saying for a while now but I have a few variations:
I believe Biden will win the Whitehouse. I believe Dems will retain the Senate. I believe Dems will regain control of the House.
With this though, I do believe some races will be closer than we think, like Montana and Ohio’s senate race. I think they will be decided with less than 10k votes with both Tester and Brown winning their respective seats.
I do think states like Pennsylvania will go to Biden by a healthy margin compared to 2020. I think Biden will take PA with ~3 points. I think Wisconsin will gain more votes with a ~1 point margin due to Baldwin being a fantastic incumbent. But with Michigan I think Biden will lose votes but still retain it with aprox ~1 point and will take the senate seat with like a ~1 point margin for Slotkin.
Arizona … hmmm, I’m not sure about but with their recent abortion rights almost canceled, I think Dems will turn out in the same if not slightly higher margins for Biden. Lake is gonna lose like Masters and cry her eyes out, probably by a ~4 or 5 point margin.
I think Georgia is a lost cause for Biden, unless Trump is convicted.
North Carolina… that one’s very interesting. I think it’s a toss up all due to the governor’s race.
———
I think the closest races will be Ohio and Montana’s senate races. Everything else will be a better margin for Biden and Democrats.
If you look at elections since 2018, yeah there have been some Republican turnouts but majority of the time Democrats have surpassed all odds. Alabama’s special election was wild (including so many others since 2022) and these primaries are showing a Trump weakness.
I agree and will say MMW that Dems will retain and gain back everything.
———
The question is, what will Biden do to keep his success so Dems have great turnout in 2026 and 2028. There needs to be some major legislation passed. Marijuana, Voter Rights, Packed Courts, Environmental Protections, Border Bills, College Loan Forgiveness, Tax the insanely wealthy, Abortion Rights, Social Security, Gun Violence. He needs to pass a significant chunk of these in the first 2 years of his second term.
The overturn of Roe v. Wade is blowing up in their faces. They want to leave it to the states and in every vote almost the states have protected it. Even the red states. I live in MO and we had to have 180,000 signatures to get it on the ballot and we got 380,000.
I’m a democrat but I know a lot of republicans who are getting fed up. We shall see though. Still a lot of Trump devotees.
My mind says that you’re correct as I’ve come to the same conclusion…….however when I walk out into the world and experience how many morons there are in the world I’m still worried that democracy could be coming to an end…..get out and vote people!
I don't know why everyone has developed this belief the 2016 polls were super far off. They predicted Clinton had a 71.4% chance to win, giving Trump a 28.6% chance to win. That is \~ 1 in 3 chance, not that bad.
Even more specifically, they predicted Clinton with 48.5% of the popular vote to Trump with 44.9% (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/)
The actual numbers were 48.5% Clinton, 46.4% Trump
Clinton Predicted / actual: 48.5% / 48.5% (polls off by 0.0%)
Trump predicted / actual: 44.9% / 46.4% (polls off by 1.5%)
I don't know how you can look at those numbers and your takeaway is the polls are worthless.
For 2020? 538 gave Biden a 89% chance to win. Their numbers for the popular vote were 53.4% Biden, 45.4% Trump. The actual was 51.3% Biden, 46.9% Trump
Biden predicted / actual: 53.4% / 51.3% (polls off by 2.1%)
Trump predicted / actual: 45.4% / 46.9% (polls off by 1.5%)
Clearly the polls are pretty accurate, within a few percentage points at worst. Stop this belief the polls are incredibly inaccurate and cannot be relied upon. Obviously the polls can and will change a lot this far out from the election, but the idea they cannot be relied upon at all is silly
I think any significant predictions about the election this far out are just blind guesses. A few months ago Trump was maintaining very consistent leads across all swing states. Then last month Biden began making up ground. Then the other day a new set of polls came out that Trump was dominating in the sun belt and had slight leads in the rust belt. Things are going to change. The polls are probably going to be wrong, but we don't know by how much and in which direction. I'm waiting until October before I even begin to venture a guess on what's going to happen. But even now I'm confident in saying that the idea of the 2024 election being the "death of the GOP" is just absurd. People have been crying that ever since Trump won the nomination in 2016. It hasn't happened yet and isn't going to. That big demographic cliff the GOP was sliding off has changed when in the last couple election cycles Hispanic voters began being more favorable to the GOP.
Canadian here watching from the outside.
I don’t know who listens to polls anymore - it seems like their process is no longer valid.
I agree with all of your points and would add the noise that will come from his trials. He may be a convicted felon (never jail) and that is something that won’t run off - many Trump supporters have indicated they won’t vote for a felon. We may even get the documents case going but that is now looking like a long shot.
I say “we” as there are many other people in other countries with a keen interest in this election as we would like to continue with an ally in democracy.
I hope so, and with a super majority they had better get shit done or they’ll be spectacularly voted out as well the next cycle. That is, unless trump or some other crank is running, then I just hope people keep turning out. It’s high time that the problems in this country get solved instead of being blocked by gridlock or the usual obstructionism.
Can someone who will be voting for Trump actually tell me what 2-3 policies he is planning to implement to improve American lives? I don't mean some fantasy populism which sometimes comes out of his mouth but something realistic which he is saying he will do and how will he achieve it? As far as i see (but i am not from US) once he wins he wants to destroy his enemies, build the wall (LoL) and escape from prison sentence.
Biden's problem isn't Gaza, or that he's old, it's the economy. When I say the economy, I do not mean the GDP growth numbers, the low inflation, or the low unemployment, I mean, the way that most Americans are actually experiencing the economy. Most Americans' wages have not risen enough for them to afford post COVID prices and rent. The fact that the stock market is great, inflation and unemployment is low, and that corporations are makeing record profits just doesn't mater to Americans when they can't afford the lifestyle they're used to and homeownership is quickly becoming a fantasy. When Biden just keeps saying the economy is doing great, they feel like they're being lied to. I am still hopeful that Biden will win, but he's got to fix his messaging on the economy.
Without a doubt.
Do MAGAs really think trump is out there picking up new votes? People made up their mind about him years ago - you either support his brand of bigotry and fascism, or you don't. No one is actually out there flip-flopping back and forth between Biden and Trump. The idea is preposterous.
I think we’re going to get a very apparent example as to why a one term President bows out of politics when they lose and dose not run again.
Trump has his cult but it’s not enough. He needs Independents and Moderates. He needs to win over those on the fence but those on the fence have to forget his previous term and buy into whatever he is going to do in his new term that he did not do previously.
He’s not just running against Biden, he’s running against himself.
I was trying to explain this to a MAGA friend of mine. He's convinced Trump will win because "how could anyone vote for biden" (coz he's old) and because biden doesnt have "big rallies" so obviously he doesnt have many supporters. Although a silly premise to start with, I tried to explain to him that there are alot of voters out there who aren't voting in support of biden, they are voting against Trump.
Which he was struggling to grasp, but then switched to "everybody hates Trump and has TDS", which I told him "kinda yeah 🤷". But he couldn't get past the fact that Trump did it to himself and was convinced its because of "mainstream media".
He just could not fathom a world where people just don't like Trump because of his toxicity and bad governance as a reason driving people to vote against him.
The Gaza situation has dealt a MASSIVE blow to Biden's chances TBH. Most lefties have sworn off him and are planning to split the vote between several independents in an attempt to "punish" or "show the DNC that keeping up the status quo won't work anymore". It's not a landslide at all.
For sure. They are a mess. It’s lots of fun watching them struggle though. lol. Good thing those ignorant bastards are disappearing like an endangered species
Prior to and after 2016 (and even including 2016 sans Presidential election) the data analysis and projections using polling data has been incredibly accurate. Historically, conservatives have shown up more come voting time than they have in the polls. The difference in 2016 is that Trump is the most extreme example we have ever seen where conservative voters have shown up come election time vs. in the polls. That's why Biden and Co. started to panic back when his polling showed him up only 2% nationwide.
In 2020, Biden was projected to win by all of the analysts that use polling data to project the winner. But, Biden actually 'underperformed' in the election vs. what the polling data showed because once again...Trump voters show up more in the election than they do in the polls. For instance, the polling data had Biden winning Florida by 4-5 points in 2020 and he lost Florida to Trump.
And many analysts were incredibly accurate in projecting the elections in 2022 predicting that there wouldn't be as big of a 'red wave' as many in the GOP were predicting. Also note that those that were predicting a big Red Wave on the polls were likely due to the lack of polling data post the overturn of Roe v Wade since that happened only a few months prior to the 2022 midterms.
That's why polling data matters as far as an indicator what's going to happen in November. There's quite a few excellent analysts out there that outside of Trump's 2016 election, have been incredibly accurate with their electoral projections.
There is at least one scenario where that doesn't happen. Clinton would have won if people hadn't been sure she would win and therefore didn't bother to vote.
Say that Trump can't win and, paradoxically, he can.
I wish, but absolutely not. No way on earth is anyone but Republicans winning places like Texas, Florida, Arkansas, Idaho. Trump has a better chance of winning this year than 2020.
If people actually vote. The problem with Democrats is that they have popular support, but people don't actually go out and make their voices heard by voting.
Landslide I’m not so sure although it would not surprise me. But if I had to put money on it, Biden wins and the only change in the map is that GA turns red. No doubt a Trump loss would be a devastating blow to the GOP.
Lol, OP is really going to set off a shit storm right away this morning. I hope you're right. I'm so sick of the whiniest ex-president in history. Be mad, maga. All Trump does is piss and moan.
Yeah every time I point out how he's lost the popular vote twice I get the "fake news" deal. It's a fact that without the electoral college he would never have won in The first place.
Biden could have a stroke on national tv and still win.
I completely agree with all of this besides the senate. I think in the senate dems get 55 at best. I also think the media narrative of polls and Trump being ahead is low key fear mongering to get more people out to vote against him.
!Remindme 165 days
I wanna be able to laugh at how delusional this place is come the election. Even if Biden wins, youre smoking Hunters crack if you think hes gonna win by that much.
If he does, theres 100% cheating involved
The polls were accurate in 2016. They were just terribly interpreted and manipulated by the media by not taking into account the electoral college system. Trump is most likely going to win this election, unfortunately.
I appreciate your optimism but, as you pointed out, we did this whole song and dance back in 2016 and...well...we know how that went.
Trump has absolutely lost a ton of MAGAts but the conservative media outlets like Fox News and NewsMax have done a great job of keeping conservatives neck-deep in manufactured fear. At the end of the day, even for the conservatives who no longer worship Trump, it will come down to whether or not right-wing media has kept them scared enough. My money is on "yes". They won't vote for Biden because he's the devil (according to them) and they won't vote for another Republican candidate because they know that's as good as a vote for Biden. They'll still vote Trump, albeit begrudgingly...you know, the same reason a lot of us vote Biden. Most people don't love the dude but God damn, look at the alternative lol.
I'd like to think Trump's dreams of a second term will die with a whimper, but the fanatics and even the skeptical Republican voters will still fight to ensure he takes office--be it in this election, the next one, or the one after that--until the day he dies. They're going to fight tooth and nail.
TL;DR version: VOTE ANYWAY!
Doesn’t matter, vote anyway. The GOP tried to interfere last election and rig it for a win. They’ll absolutely try it again. They’re already sending out flyers to voters and trying to intimidate.
And unfortunately, fear WORKS. Especially on those smooth brain voters. The GOP knows they’re running out of time, so they’re going to scare their voter base to the polls. And they’re going to try and interfere with votes. Before it was a small effort, now the MAGA crowd may think they need to help on their own and volunteer.
That’s one thing OP isn’t considering, and a major reason why we all need to vote.
The Palestine protesters may be Democrats, but Republicans are funding them for sure.
I support Palestinians, but it takes a special kind of stupid to think Trump would be better.
I think you're underestimating how many people are pissed off over the trajectory of the last few years. I also believe people feel somewhat annoyed and taken aback by the fact that the guy who was supposed to be straight and honest ends up lying about as much as the other guy. They're both awful, but under Trump people really were doing better financially, the border was secure, there were no major wars, things were cheaper. It doesn't even matter how much of this is the fault of Biden or leftover bullshit from Trump himself. Most voters aren't informed enough to make the distinction anyway.
I think it's going to be a really close one for the reasons above and because RFK is likely to take some votes that would otherwise go to Biden.
> I live in MI so there are a ton of Arab muslims, and even they acknowledge they must vote for biden. or they wont vote at all.
>Now while i havent seen many people seriously saying they wont vote for biden, i have seen MANY MANY trump supporters who say they will not be going out for round 3.
Why are you trusting your own perception over public opinion polls with much larger sample sizes?
Still need to vote to make this happen, don't count on everyone else voting and hoping it's enough. Go vote, I can help you find out how to get registered if you need, just message me
This country is fucked. Both sides think the exact same shit, accuse each other of the same shit, and the uniparty is fucking Americans wholesale while y'all argue who's dick you want in your ass. The uniparty is extracting as much money from this dying country while securing citizenship, homes, businesses, and even positions in other nations.
Infighting has killed a lot of countries and crippled even more.
WAKE THE FUCK UP AND REALIZE NO POLITICIANS CARE ABOUT YOU AT ALL. THEY ONKY CARE ABOUT THEMSELVES.
When Ol Stinky had to draft his little sychophants to come cheer him in NY because not even a handful of his "rabid supporters" showed up at the courthouse, that was when you knew it was over.
Red media will continue to say otherwise, and for a while after it's over, but it won't matter.
This election and Covid 25 will be the end of the party, in general.
I like your optimism, although I am skeptical that gen z is going to show up to vote. That age group is politically aware but doesn’t typically turn out and it doesn’t feel like they’re in the mood to start now.
What happened since 2020? There won't be universal mail in voting due to a pandemic. That means a lot less people are likely to vote. The mail in ballots heavily favored democrats. Trump is polling way more favorably than in 2020 or 2016. Biden has a higher disapproval rating and Kennedy might make a 3rd party run. I say a lot of things are different since 2020.
Making a prediction like this is risk free. If you are wrong … you won’t mention it and no one will remember you might even delete it. If you are right I’m sure you will repost and remind everyone.
Anyone who thinks there will be a Blue or Red wave is just projecting what they hope for. It doesn’t happen. Or it leans one way and everyone calls it a “wave “.
No the GOP won’t disappear and neither will the DNC.
Palestine won’t decide the election neither will pro-life vs pro choice (it did in 22 because ruling and out right before election season) It most likely will be how the economy and immigration is handled in October. To be fair if Isreal is still fighting with Hamas by election time it WILL be an issue.
There are solid vote my team regardless who it is voters. Those are not the ones that matter (unless they don’t show up because of over confidence). It’s the undecided that will make the difference. Biden has a record to attack and pick apart now like Trump did before. I think if you watch the debates it will be the best harbinger. Biden has a low bar on these. If he comes across as competent and not senile the poll numbers will correct.
The reason the poll numbers were so skewed in 2016 is because people wouldn’t admit they preferred Trump over HRC and she believed the polls and coasted at the end. The 2020 polls had Biden winning but varied widely whether it would be a blowout or close but they all had him winning
But if you want Trump to win. Definitely keep pushing the narrative that the GOP has no chance.
There is a difference between polls not being 100% accurate and ignoring them completely. You have to be legitimately delusional to believe this in light of all the different polls and signs that Biden is not performing well in this campaign. Which isn't that unusual for the people spanning MMW with their political wet dreams
I want some of whatever you're smoking.
The Dem message now is basically status quo plus and "at least we're not Trump." Nothing very inspiring or energetic to get out the vote.
The leader of the impotent opposition to Trump among Republicans just announced that she's voting for him, so it's likely many of her voters will as well.
I think the orange menace has a very decent chance at a sequel. The polls back this up.
Either way, it'll be yet another win for the deep pocket donor class and the corporations they run. The duopoly never dies.
This is a naive take but hope is good. The more people that vote will increase our chances of maintaining the status quo vs handing literally everything to the .00000001% while destroying the currency and shredding foreign relations except for intimate relationships with the governments of Russia and China whose authoritarian regimes our dicktator will breathlessly emulate. Let's aim for 53/47.
Biden is definitely not going to win almost every state lmao. Tennessee, Texas, Alabama, probably georgia, and many other states will be red. Where tf do people come up with these ideas?
It is posts like this that make me realize why some people get so pissy even when they really get their way. It will be a whole lot closer than you predict, and MMW, you will be very salty about it, and either whine that it did not go the way you "knew" it should, or you will clam up about this prediction, since either way you had no control (or clear understanding) of the greater voting population.
Right now, either party already claiming victory is complacent and lethargic. Don't set up the kind of expectations that will then lead to the wrong kinds of responses in January, and further bitterness, when we are going to need to figure out how to all deal with the results however they may fall.
With this much winning we should be able to pass legislation or constitutional amendment(s) to abolish gerrymandering (for any reason), establish federal election standards uniformly across the states, expand the supreme court, level representation in the House, and maybe even reform/abolish the electoral college.
Everyone needs to VOTE.
The election is going to come down to six states. And it’s n
Pretty close in those states.
A couple hundred thousand voters who decide to go apathy route could decide the election.
I don’t see it being a landslide as Americans have short memories and voting against someone doesn’t have the lasting power of being excited about someone.
Which works both ways, and we have seen trumps rallies getting smaller and smaller, his truth tweets getting less and less likes, shares, and engagement, it seems his momentum is waning.
Tons of examples of people leaving en masse before he is done speaking.
He still has a rabid base that is ideologically captured, but I think many have broke through and left him.
Either way, we need to fucking vote.
Yeah not marking these words. 2 major hot wars started under Biden and tough economic times. Never gonna have a "Regan" victory with that in his record.
I do think Biden will get a clear win and it's possible to get a senate majority, but absolutely no way the senate goes even over 55 seats to the dems, let alone 60...or 66
This post sounds to me like an attempt to make democratic voters complacent. DO NOT LET IT HAPPEN TO YOU! This could be shaping up to be the most runaway victory in the history of this nation and every single dem voter should still be running out to the polls to cast their vote. You have a right to vote don't let it go to waste.
Landslide? No. No chance. Love to see it, but absolutely not. I can see it being a larger margin than the last one, but 63% of the popular vote for Biden? Not happening. Too many people voting for the other side.
You're either not paying attention or a right wing troll trying to convince the left they don't need to vote.
They don't need money. Voting is free, and Trump gets all the publicity he wants for free all day, every day on every single corner of the internet and television.
There is no republican disillusionment. Disillusionment requires some degree of giving a shit about reality and the consequences of policy. These people refused to take life-saving medicine simply because liberals wanted them to take it. These are not rational people. Stop trying to predict their behavior as though they were.
And at the end of the day: Biden is polling poorly in places he needs to win. Trump is not.
Republicans are going to vote republican, and in records numbers. Not because their candidate deserves it, but because they correctly see this election as their chance to win *every* election for the foreseeable future. I am BEGGING you and people like you to stop being this fucking arrogant.
I know that a second Trump term would be catastrophic for democracy, among many other issues.
MY #1 reason for wanting to see him lose is so that he can face accountability for at least some of his misdeeds before he passes...
Vote anyway.
Exactly, I heard this same shit in 2016. This post is so delusional that I am convinced it’s written by GOP supporters wanting us to not bother to vote.
Yup. Vote. It's going to be crazy close.
Not just close, we lost a seat in the senate with Manchin retiring. He’s in a hard red zone so it’s a miracle they were voting for a Democrat at all, it’s gonna be a Republican next. After that, every purple state with a seat running has a Democrat in it, so we have to get a perfect game in order to keep the senate blue.
Eh, I bet on trump to win in 2016 because it was pretty clear Trump had way more support than the media wanted to portray. I agree with pretty much the entirety of the OP, I don't think it's exaggerating much, just a bit hyperbolic. I don't see how Trump gained support since the last election, and I'm very skeptical that Biden is going to get less support than last time--few people were thrilled to vote for him last time, he had basically no voter enthusiasm but still won due to people not wanting Trump. Now he's had a decent presidency without major scandals in the eyes of anyone not already in the tank for Trump. Since last election, January 6th has turned off a lot of Republicans willing to hold their nose and vote trump in that election. He's only become more unhinged. His supporters only more radical and off-putting to everyone else Trump needs votes from to win. (ETA: Roe v Wade being overturned truly surprised me because it seems like such a totally obvious own-goal by the GOP. They have benefitted for generations from the apathy of pro-choice people who didn't think that would happen. Now those people are desperate to cast their vote. This imho is going to *strongly* affect turnout, and very much to the benefit of Democrats.) But please, vote, this is the best chance we've ever had to stick the knife deep into the GOP.
I mean, the GOP hasn't won an election since 2016. They lost in 2018, 2020, and 2022.
Also it’s going to be razor thin margins. Anyone paying attention can tell you that the disinformation campaign encouraging young people not to vote and for independents to vote for right wing funded spoilers like RFK and Jill Stein is working incredibly well. Every vote matters
It was insanely effective in 2016. The message from republicans to democrats was “hey, Trump doesn’t stand a chance so there’s no need going out to vote. Plus Hillary is under investigation so you aren’t gonna feel good if you vote for her and she gets convicted. Just stay home and enjoy your non dairy mocha biscotti frappuccino and gluten free dairy free creme brulee!” and it f’ing worked. Hillary’s numbers were incredibly low.
I saw more than a few Facebook posts and Reddit comments back then that could basically be paraphrased as "I'm staying at home/voting Third Party because I don't like Clinton and nobody is stupid enough to vote for Trump". Then they screamed their heads off and complained the entire four years. Like, you enabled this, maybe you need to shut up, think about what you did, and not do it again. And now people are lining up to do it again, except replace Clinton with Biden, despite the fact that it looks like this round is going to be even more extreme than the first if Trump gets elected.
This is why they are overplaying trumps ability to win
It is not plausible to imagine the Republicans will disappear quietly. They are powered by ..well [more money than Han Solo can imagine](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/22/us/politics/republican-dark-money.html), anyway. (And that's just the money from ONE guy. He's not giving just a portion of this year's income, he's giving the life savings of a literal billionaire. Money that used to be given "for the advancement of science" is being given to unearth and reanimate every form of evil we have buried since the days of the Pyramids. "[Turn back the clock, it's conservative, and we're takin' our money to the land of the Undead!](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donors_Trust)"
It will be interesting because Biden's stance on the Israeli-Palestinian war hurts his efforts with young voters and RFK's entrance will siphon votes away from P01135809.
It isn't just misinformation campaigns, people are frustrated with Biden and tired of being party to the slaughter of innocents oversees and our mass manufacturing of weapons, while renewable energy development stalls and Healthcare remains criminally expensive, housing costs are out of control, people are drowning in debt. He has signaled repeatedly that he does not care enough to work on ANYTHING important to average Americans. It doesn't matter that Trump is worse because to the American people Biden is saying "I won't even work for your vote". It is so taken for granted that we will all vote blue out of fear for Trump that the democrats are going mask off on their priorities and their thoughts about zionism or the economy. THAT is what is disenfranchising so many people. I get texted every other day from representatives of the DNC and various democratic elected officials. Or "pollsters". They all say they want my opinion, want to know where I lean, who I will vote for and why. Inevitable every single one leads to a donation page THAT WILL NOT SUBMIT MY OPINIONS UNLESS I DONATE. Then they send threatening messages "We will put you down as a Trump voter if you do not reply!" What the fuck is that supposed to mean!? If I don't spend money on their campaigns they will lie and say I am voting for Trump? The state of elections is so fucking bad and it takes absolutely no misinformation at this point to drive people away from voting. There are no choices left. Democracy is dying at the federal level.
Not just vote, but for the right guy I got a parent voting for brain worm guy cause they aren’t happy with the other one… just ugh if that fucker gets 7% protest vote or whatever it could be a kiss of death
I believe Biden will hold all the states he carried in 2020 and he will pick up NC as well. I do believe the house will flip blue but only by a dozen or so seats, and I believe dems will pick up two seats in the senate but will lose one (Manchin). I do believe it will be close in the potus election but not as close as 2020. I believe swing state margins will be larger for Biden than last time Down ballot I do believe the GOP is going to suffer because of the fascist bent of the maga movement coupled with the ‘let’s punish women’ movement.
I think we may be surprised in the Senate. Every now and then there's a game-changing election that surprises everyone. Ive been voting for several decades, and its happened at least a couple times i can remember. This feels like one of those times, even more than before. I think the Republicans are in for a blood bath. And if that happens, Biden should take that mandate seriously, and make his mark on history by adding 4 seats to the SCOTUS, and leading the impeachments of Alito and Thomas, and the prosectution of them along with Thomas' bulldog wife for Sedition and Insurrection.
I really wish I had your optimism cause I'm beyond anxious and scared about November getting closer
I'm concerned too, but there's a lot of reasons to be optimistic. Of course, win or lose, we will have to deal with post-election MAGA violence.
Can't wait to watch videos on reddit of them dealing with law enforcement and/or national guard
The last time, both sides learned that guns would have made a big difference, so the next time, both sides will show up armed to the teeth. The difference is that military weapons make whatever MAGAturds have look like Fisher-Price toys. Also, I doubt they'll try to attack the Capitol next time, they'll go after the White House, and they don't play around at 1600 PA. They've got machine gun nests and rocket launchers and helicopter gun ships and more. They wont be able to identify TRAITORS until they put the pieces back together like Legos.
I don’t know the other races but I worry about Sharrod Brown and Tester. They are both in deep red states. They are likable but with the extremism of the GOP I don’t know if that’s enough.
Ohio voted to enshrine abortion rights in their state constitution. The republican led state legislature has basically shit all over the will of the voters. And now they’re trying to keep the current incumbent president off the ballot. Ohio is daring independents and dems to show up. Tester is extremely popular and incumbents are hard to topple in the US. I think Tester is more precarious, but I also think Cruz in Texas and Scott im Florida are not exactly safe, even though they should be given their states’ deep red status.
I lived in Montana for several years. People forget that for a very long time Montana was split party- wise on the two senators, had a GOP rep and a Dem governor. Blue dog dems come out to vote for Tester reliably. It’s going to be close, but Montanans, of all the people and states I’ve lived in, truly believe in individualism and tend to lean toward individual rights regardless of party. My only fear is that like states like Idaho and Florida, GOP leadership during the pandemic seemed to collect people from blue states that took refuge from states like Washington, Oregon and California during the pandemic and can have a major impact on the electorate considering the last time Tester ran was 2018.
>and I believe dems will pick up two seats in the senate but will lose one (Manchin). Which two seats do you think they pick up? Texas and Florida are the closest I can see, and those will be tough.
Its gonna be a total unmitigated disaster for GOP, no chance they dont totally lose power after this election, provided nothing insane happens between now and November. The all or nothing nature of US politics means even a small shift in bidens favor has massive ramifications for the opposition. I think the past 4 years have built up a large shift in his favor. GOP Is going nuclear baby, count on it.
You forgot about the election rigging by state GOPs in GA FL OH NC AZ PA. They’re trying to limit voting in cities, and removing people from voter rolls. Plus they’re eliminating polling stations and mail in voting as much as possible. That’s going to skew numbers back to GOP. Biden will win but it’ll be tight and contested. Trump and GOP will refuse to accept the results and we may end up in a full on revolt/insurrection. Bigger than 1/6/21
Yea election interfernce skull duggery is the NO.1 issue for this election, not the threat of actually losing it fairly. MAGA prolly will throw a tantrum yea but once its illustrated just how outnumbered and unpopluar the fascist movement is many will just shut up and sit down. There will prolly be violence though, i agree with that.
After Jan 6th. MAGA isn’t stupid enough to try violence again. Just look at the nonexistent crowds showing up to Trump’s trial! You think the Gravy Seals are gearing up to try and overthrow an election again? What little violence will be unfortunately no more than the shit we have daily in this country.
They had a shit ton of people at his rally in The Bronx yesterday and NYC is usually blue. Don’t under estimate the MAGATs getting riled up because they lost the election again and claim it was “rigged.”
Not to mention SCOTUS being total GOP shills and supporting gerrymandering and suppression of the minority votes and political desires
We need to send in the national guard to open the polling stations back up like they did during the civil rights era. The scumbag racists always come back to the same old tricks.
##Reminder to check your voter registration status: https://www.vote411.org/check-registration
I envy your optimism but let’s remember, Trump isn’t running to appeal to voters and win an election, he’s running to cheat an election. Prepare for every dirty trick in the book and then some.
He's running to stay out of prison. He'll make his version of a concession speech from his jet on the way back to the Home Office in Moscow. #Dosvedanya
Dosvedanya, COMRADE.
Russia's poorest oligarch, Donald J. Trump.
No way Biden gets Texas or Florida or Ohio. I agree that Biden will win, but to predict he'll win almost every state, you discredited this entire post.
The more red voters that flee to red states for a "better life" the less they will swing anything. The phenomenon has already resulted in massive population changes.
Texas is turning purple... Ohio is unlikely and Florida is a cesspool of trumpanzees.
Ohio is trying to keep Biden off the ballot. No way he gets ohio. Hell we will be voting for the second time on a map considered unconstitutional by the Supreme Court in Ohio. The GOP just keeps running the clock out and nothing is done about it.
You typically don’t try to keep candidates off the ballot who won’t have a chance.
It's that Palm Beach thing, man. It's a cesspool.
People are moving from California to Texas. That should tell you something. Women are being treated like second class citizens by Texas Republicans and it is getting a lot of media attention. That should tell you something. Women are not going to go back to before they had reproductive rights, and the GOP has made it pretty clear that's the direction they want to send this country. That should tell you something. Ignore all the noise- GOP is doomed.
People who like how Texas acts more than cali acts, are moving to Texas. It’s not random progressives from SF it’s angry middle management guys from Redding
I think you're underestimating the ability for republican women to put the parties interest over their own bodily health.
Republicans are moving from CA to TX. That makes CA more blue and TX more red.
They can't vote and change anything in a red state.
The GOP is in a lose lose situation in the long run regardless. If they lose, it's going to keep heading the direction of their demise as their voters get older, new voters come in, and biden can level things out with SCOTUS picks and good legislation.. If Trump wins, and reproductive rights get hammered, he goes full or even semi fash and starts dismantling the goverment, and heck knows what else. That will galvanise ALOT of people to the "left/liberal" side. His last presidency swung alot of people left, and left wing ideology had a boom. Another Trump presidency and the chaos that ensues would make this happen again but on steroids. It would also destroy the GOPs future for quite some time as the dems would just be able to point to "that" and it would turn alot of people away, or galvanise them against it. Nobody voted for the nazi party in Germany afterwards because of how negatively associated they were. Same theoretical principles will apply. It doesn't matter which happens. The GOP will sink either way. That's why they are getting increasing desperate and putting all their eggs in the Trump basket. They are hoping that they can pull some miracle off where it doesn't end badly for them. But the reality is, the worst Trump goes (if he wins), the more it will hurt them. Their best option, and only option really is to have him win, and then hamstring the fk out of him so that he runs a really plain, moderate term. But do you think that's gonna happen? 🤣 Win or lose. The GOP are fucked, it all just depends on which avenue they take and how painful the rough period that ensues is.
Dont be so sure, if georgia can go blue so can texas and Florida. I know this isnt either of those states, by here in MI a former heavy trump county just voted in a democrat with a 63% vote or something. So if that one county can flip THAT hard, im not gonna be surprised when texas and Florida come blue, watch man, have faith!
As a Floridian, Florida won't turn blue this election cycle or any other time. Blue voters move out of Florida now because cost of living is so high there is no reason to stay and battle it out. Also, hurricanes and shit. Anyone I know who isn't diehard red but is still here has plans to move and is stuck for one reason or another at this moment.
For Texas - 2020 D 46.5% R 52.1% 2016 D 43.2% R 52.2% 2012 D 41.4% R 57.2% Taking the last 3 presidential elections in account. Linear regression tells us the next one should be 2024 D 48.8% R 48.7% It'll be close. But possible.
Ohio only looks red as hell because it’s gerrymandered to hell. It’s really only 1-2 percentage points from being a toss up. In the last year they passed a state constitutional amendment to protect the right for women to choose and also to move toward recreational marijuana - both by a landslide. That doesn’t mean it’s a 50/50 state for Biden, but it’s definitely not in “no chance in hell” territory either. Trump carried the state with 53% in 2020 however if that support dips into the 51% range or within the margin of error, Biden could have a shot there as well - and considering Sherrod Brown needs to defend his senate seat anyway, the Dems will no doubt be spending a chunk of their heavy monetary advantage in ad buys as we get closer to the November.
Work in hotel industry in Florida, we're expecting a big push in October from RNC hosting tons of events. Heard some outrageous stat that the number of registered republicans in Florida has jumped by like 500K in Florida since the last election. Everyone moving to this state is red. edit: just saw his #2 reason for not voting for Biden was... Palestine?? lol OP is out to lunch. Trump is a very real threat and people writing posts like this assuming it's a Biden landslide show that some people learned nothing from 2016. Get out and vote people.
All true - but don’t be complacent! Vote Blue and get your friends to vote and crush the Orange rapist.
I disagree. It will be close. Republicans are a cult. They will vote Republican no matter what. And a large slice of Republicans are eager for Fascism, because they don't believe the hammer will fall on them or people they care about.
Maga is a cult yes, but the republican party of yesteryear is dead, this election will illustrate that. All weve seen the past years are old heads saying theyre done with the party. Think mitt romney. They couldnt win before the Mitt Romneys left. Now the Mitts are leaving and a bunch of people died sucking horse paste. GOP is dead, yes sirrrr.
I have watched a few of these things play out in real time. The republicans always come home. And every cycle, as we head into the summer the media mentions this possibility that the group that just lost the primary won’t come back to their party. It never happens. This will be a very close election. So vote.
GOP died when Trump was anointed in the first place.
People like Mitt Romney may be distancing themselves but he is one vote. The actual voters that make up the Republican Party (and even independents that lean republican) have fallen in step with this new Republican Party for the most part. And even if they don’t like it, they still hate democrats way more and would never vote for them and will still vote republican. Many polls show republicans view democrats as a larger threat to the US than Russia, China, etc. I love your optimism to think voters in the US are rational, but they simply aren’t. The conservative media apparatus has a huge captive audience that lives in a different reality and trump has shown his scandals and other misdeeds simply don’t matter. This election is going to be very close and honestly right now if I were a betting man and had to choose I’d put my money on trump. Which terrifies me.
Not true at all. I voted Republican many times, but this current group is an abomination. They need to be cleared out. They have had the House majority, and have done literally nothing useful for the nation. Trump? He’s a weak psychotic creep. I’m ashamed that I didn’t see through his facade, and actually voted for him over Hillary. I thought that a change would not be a bad thing, and how much damage could he do in four years. Wow, was I short-sighted. Biden is an effective President, and a decent human. There is literally zero comparison, and it’s not just him, his whole administration has been outstanding.
this will either age like fine wine or milk...we will see in November.
The polls are all literally opposite and they always underestimate Trump by around 5%, so something would have to change for this
While I agree that biden will win and the democrats will take both houses, it won't be a landslide. In fact, don't expect a landslide anytime soon. The country is too polarized.
Republicans never win the popular vote. I think they did as basically a show of unity after 9/11 and in Reagan’s second term but it’s always the democrats that demolish the popular vote. Republican politics are becoming less and less popular as time goes on due to their rhetoric. I think after this election they will shift back to more traditional conservative values and not this ‘make liberals cry lol’ shit that has cost them every election since 2016 including midterms.
Yeah it’s because they know they are untouchable in red states. They only have one perform in 1 or two purple states. Moral: move to a red state and infiltrate the fascism. Then vote.
Theyve gone too far. I think they are for a rude awakening when they realise they can't drag their voters back too a more moderate degree. They've spent way too much time brainwashing them into being scared of trans genders and "wokeness" that I legimately think they've passed a point of no return. It will take generations to fix this level of fuck up. People don't really consider the irreparable damage that has been done to the psyche of some of these people. They've been so propagandised to the point that they now functionally live in a state of media induced psychosis. They might try to pivot and cool things down, but the damage is already done. The base has run away from the politicians, and to repair this damage is going to take a longggg time. Imo, Ruppert Murdoch and FOX media executives should he put on trial for crimes against humanity. They've cooked people's brains with so much propaganda to the point of delusion. That's fucked up. That kinda shit needs to he stamped out. The world needs to establish some new human rights surrounding media based attacks and propaganda. We can't just go cooking peoples minds with fear mongering to the point they live in a world that is so foundationally disconnected from reality. I'm a researcher in the social sciences and this Trump era of politics is going to be one of the most heavily studied phenomenon in modern history. The effects of media on the human mind has become a weapon for political purposes on a spectrum that we've never seen before. There's always been propaganda, and some propaganda is acceptable. Like propaganda to foster a HEALTHY level of nationalism, stories of heroism and legends of bravery. For example I come from Australia and we have a famous tale of a soldier during the first world war called "Simpson and his donkey". All Australians know it, and it represents a tale of bravery, determination, and mateship. This is still by definition "propaganda", but it's not necessarily 'dangerous' propaganda. There are degrees of propaganda we can let slide as they don't foster dangerous concequences. The propaganda that modern media networks are deploying, ESPECIALLY conservative/rw content is going too far. It's passed the realm of acceptable and into realm of dangerous. A prime example of this, is our "sky news". Which is Murdoch owned and essentially Australia's version of FOX. Yet this channel has more American viewers than it does Australian by a pretty decent margin, it's actually directed more to American audiences. If you turn sky news on, or watch a few YouTube segments you'll pick up on it quick. The language they use, the tonality, the way they shape narratives is INCREDIBLY toxic. It's nasty, it's vile and filled with so much venom. Now small doses of exposure aren't too much of a big deal. The issue comes when people consume this kind of content day in day out. That level of exposure to toxic metewaves can do some serious damage to people's psyche. It slowly starts to make the viewers toxic, and share these vile views. The same can he said for the impact of fox, sky news is just that tad more dialed up. The issue isn't Trump. He just happened to be the vessel this all accumulated through. The issue is the media and the damage it is doing to people's minds. The GOP and their media conspirators have gone too far and cooked too many people. As I said, they will try to cool it and return to more moderate traditional narratives, but it's not gonna work. They passed the point of no return I'm afraid.
Reddit is funny.
Right now Karli Lake is down 12 points in arizona senate polling. In all the polls. So do you believe that 20 percent of people in arizona are going to split ticket Trump/Gallageo? Or do you believe that the polling that says Trump and Biden are even in Arizona give or take a point or two are flawed? Or do you think that all the arizona senate polling is off by triple the margin of error? It’s not a slam dunk, but given 2022 being a flop year for republicans when midterms are usually wave elections for the party out of power, and special elections coming up democrat by 10-20 percent more then biden won in 2020: My money is the pollsters, trying not to underestimate trump support again, might have overcorrected in their methods.
RemindMe! 5 months 2 weeks
I know right. These people are fucking delusional in their CNN echo chamber.
It’s not even CNN though, to their credit they are admitting Biden has an uphill battle for a second term.
Not going to happen. Half this country votes with regularity and with religious loyalty and they don't care which jack ass happens to be pulling the cart at the time
Nah. I do think Biden will win, but the map will look pretty similar to 2020. The Republians just have too many institutional advantages, and if their voters didn't jump ship when they nominated a game show host with no political experience who grabs women by the pussy, they're never gonna. They could nominate a tree stump, and as long as they stick a pin on the side that says "life begins at conception" they're getting 200 electoral votes.
It doesn’t matter what happens, the GOP will go bankrupt, with Trump both in charge of the RNC, and their candidate, they are BLEEDING money. When Trump started he had close to 100 million, they are down to 8 million, and that money has been used to campaign for EVERYONE running under the RNC banner. No matter the result, they will be out of money.
Not even my hard right Mormon friends want to vote for this rapist anymore and we live in Texas.
Let me say that while folks are certainly outraged about Palestine, will they put themselves out to dry by staying home on election day? Seems immature and self defeating to me. As someone who is upset about what is happening to Palestinians, I will be voting Biden, and then trying to affect change with my voice, in an appeal to his administration. Those who think trump will do anything better for Palestine is a fool.
Can’t wait for the republicans to start crying and saying “BuT tHe PoLLs” 🤡
They cant stop, that and calling demographic realties "delusions." Best laugh ive had in a couple weeks.
STOP I CAN ONLY GET SO ERECT
You’re onto something I’ve been saying for a while now but I have a few variations: I believe Biden will win the Whitehouse. I believe Dems will retain the Senate. I believe Dems will regain control of the House. With this though, I do believe some races will be closer than we think, like Montana and Ohio’s senate race. I think they will be decided with less than 10k votes with both Tester and Brown winning their respective seats. I do think states like Pennsylvania will go to Biden by a healthy margin compared to 2020. I think Biden will take PA with ~3 points. I think Wisconsin will gain more votes with a ~1 point margin due to Baldwin being a fantastic incumbent. But with Michigan I think Biden will lose votes but still retain it with aprox ~1 point and will take the senate seat with like a ~1 point margin for Slotkin. Arizona … hmmm, I’m not sure about but with their recent abortion rights almost canceled, I think Dems will turn out in the same if not slightly higher margins for Biden. Lake is gonna lose like Masters and cry her eyes out, probably by a ~4 or 5 point margin. I think Georgia is a lost cause for Biden, unless Trump is convicted. North Carolina… that one’s very interesting. I think it’s a toss up all due to the governor’s race. ——— I think the closest races will be Ohio and Montana’s senate races. Everything else will be a better margin for Biden and Democrats. If you look at elections since 2018, yeah there have been some Republican turnouts but majority of the time Democrats have surpassed all odds. Alabama’s special election was wild (including so many others since 2022) and these primaries are showing a Trump weakness. I agree and will say MMW that Dems will retain and gain back everything. ——— The question is, what will Biden do to keep his success so Dems have great turnout in 2026 and 2028. There needs to be some major legislation passed. Marijuana, Voter Rights, Packed Courts, Environmental Protections, Border Bills, College Loan Forgiveness, Tax the insanely wealthy, Abortion Rights, Social Security, Gun Violence. He needs to pass a significant chunk of these in the first 2 years of his second term.
The overturn of Roe v. Wade is blowing up in their faces. They want to leave it to the states and in every vote almost the states have protected it. Even the red states. I live in MO and we had to have 180,000 signatures to get it on the ballot and we got 380,000. I’m a democrat but I know a lot of republicans who are getting fed up. We shall see though. Still a lot of Trump devotees.
LOL what a take. RemindMe! November 6, 2024
No. It’s going to be a squeaker like 2016 tipping one way or another in my opinion.
It would help if you didn't start out by getting President Ronald Reagan confused with Donald Regan.
Utah won’t go to Biden.
I admire your optimism and I do think Biden wins by a healthy margin, but not a complete landslide with how divided the country is
My mind says that you’re correct as I’ve come to the same conclusion…….however when I walk out into the world and experience how many morons there are in the world I’m still worried that democracy could be coming to an end…..get out and vote people!
I enjoy trolling the delusion cult members on the fake Fox News website. Their stories are continually over the top lies stoking their cult base
You've got it. You're right about all of this. Unfortunately, the democrat party has moved to a near centrist position.
Full schitzo post. Well done.
Don't count the chickens before they hatch.
My job has me flying to multiple states. I make small talk with the locals while I’m passing through. No one is on board with Biden….ever.
I'm sure this is really statistical, scientific based statement as well. Just ignore EVERY SINGLE POLL. Stay here in your leftist echo chamber.
You're not paying attention to the polls.
I don't know why everyone has developed this belief the 2016 polls were super far off. They predicted Clinton had a 71.4% chance to win, giving Trump a 28.6% chance to win. That is \~ 1 in 3 chance, not that bad. Even more specifically, they predicted Clinton with 48.5% of the popular vote to Trump with 44.9% (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/) The actual numbers were 48.5% Clinton, 46.4% Trump Clinton Predicted / actual: 48.5% / 48.5% (polls off by 0.0%) Trump predicted / actual: 44.9% / 46.4% (polls off by 1.5%) I don't know how you can look at those numbers and your takeaway is the polls are worthless. For 2020? 538 gave Biden a 89% chance to win. Their numbers for the popular vote were 53.4% Biden, 45.4% Trump. The actual was 51.3% Biden, 46.9% Trump Biden predicted / actual: 53.4% / 51.3% (polls off by 2.1%) Trump predicted / actual: 45.4% / 46.9% (polls off by 1.5%) Clearly the polls are pretty accurate, within a few percentage points at worst. Stop this belief the polls are incredibly inaccurate and cannot be relied upon. Obviously the polls can and will change a lot this far out from the election, but the idea they cannot be relied upon at all is silly
I think any significant predictions about the election this far out are just blind guesses. A few months ago Trump was maintaining very consistent leads across all swing states. Then last month Biden began making up ground. Then the other day a new set of polls came out that Trump was dominating in the sun belt and had slight leads in the rust belt. Things are going to change. The polls are probably going to be wrong, but we don't know by how much and in which direction. I'm waiting until October before I even begin to venture a guess on what's going to happen. But even now I'm confident in saying that the idea of the 2024 election being the "death of the GOP" is just absurd. People have been crying that ever since Trump won the nomination in 2016. It hasn't happened yet and isn't going to. That big demographic cliff the GOP was sliding off has changed when in the last couple election cycles Hispanic voters began being more favorable to the GOP.
Canadian here watching from the outside. I don’t know who listens to polls anymore - it seems like their process is no longer valid. I agree with all of your points and would add the noise that will come from his trials. He may be a convicted felon (never jail) and that is something that won’t run off - many Trump supporters have indicated they won’t vote for a felon. We may even get the documents case going but that is now looking like a long shot. I say “we” as there are many other people in other countries with a keen interest in this election as we would like to continue with an ally in democracy.
I hope so, and with a super majority they had better get shit done or they’ll be spectacularly voted out as well the next cycle. That is, unless trump or some other crank is running, then I just hope people keep turning out. It’s high time that the problems in this country get solved instead of being blocked by gridlock or the usual obstructionism.
"Here's how that's bad for Biden"
"heres how thousands of GOPers dying to a virus and thousands more disavowing the party entirely is bad for Biden"
Can someone who will be voting for Trump actually tell me what 2-3 policies he is planning to implement to improve American lives? I don't mean some fantasy populism which sometimes comes out of his mouth but something realistic which he is saying he will do and how will he achieve it? As far as i see (but i am not from US) once he wins he wants to destroy his enemies, build the wall (LoL) and escape from prison sentence.
Biden's problem isn't Gaza, or that he's old, it's the economy. When I say the economy, I do not mean the GDP growth numbers, the low inflation, or the low unemployment, I mean, the way that most Americans are actually experiencing the economy. Most Americans' wages have not risen enough for them to afford post COVID prices and rent. The fact that the stock market is great, inflation and unemployment is low, and that corporations are makeing record profits just doesn't mater to Americans when they can't afford the lifestyle they're used to and homeownership is quickly becoming a fantasy. When Biden just keeps saying the economy is doing great, they feel like they're being lied to. I am still hopeful that Biden will win, but he's got to fix his messaging on the economy.
Districts are so gerrymandered now Dems are going to have a hard time recapturing it.
Without a doubt. Do MAGAs really think trump is out there picking up new votes? People made up their mind about him years ago - you either support his brand of bigotry and fascism, or you don't. No one is actually out there flip-flopping back and forth between Biden and Trump. The idea is preposterous.
The man thinks he can flip New Jersey and New York… So yes, undoubtedly, Maga members think Trump is picking up people. 💀
I think we’re going to get a very apparent example as to why a one term President bows out of politics when they lose and dose not run again. Trump has his cult but it’s not enough. He needs Independents and Moderates. He needs to win over those on the fence but those on the fence have to forget his previous term and buy into whatever he is going to do in his new term that he did not do previously. He’s not just running against Biden, he’s running against himself.
I was trying to explain this to a MAGA friend of mine. He's convinced Trump will win because "how could anyone vote for biden" (coz he's old) and because biden doesnt have "big rallies" so obviously he doesnt have many supporters. Although a silly premise to start with, I tried to explain to him that there are alot of voters out there who aren't voting in support of biden, they are voting against Trump. Which he was struggling to grasp, but then switched to "everybody hates Trump and has TDS", which I told him "kinda yeah 🤷". But he couldn't get past the fact that Trump did it to himself and was convinced its because of "mainstream media". He just could not fathom a world where people just don't like Trump because of his toxicity and bad governance as a reason driving people to vote against him.
MMW, u r nuts
[удалено]
touch grass, you'll find your opinion isn't confirmed.
You exist in a bubble
The Gaza situation has dealt a MASSIVE blow to Biden's chances TBH. Most lefties have sworn off him and are planning to split the vote between several independents in an attempt to "punish" or "show the DNC that keeping up the status quo won't work anymore". It's not a landslide at all.
And there are plenty of Jewish voters, who tend to vote a lot, who will not vote for Biden because he has been too hard on Israel.
Good to know you've spoken with "Most lefties"
Hope you are right. We need to clean out the kooks and crooks from the GOP.
It doesn't mean the election won't be rigged and trump ends up president
For sure. They are a mess. It’s lots of fun watching them struggle though. lol. Good thing those ignorant bastards are disappearing like an endangered species
Prior to and after 2016 (and even including 2016 sans Presidential election) the data analysis and projections using polling data has been incredibly accurate. Historically, conservatives have shown up more come voting time than they have in the polls. The difference in 2016 is that Trump is the most extreme example we have ever seen where conservative voters have shown up come election time vs. in the polls. That's why Biden and Co. started to panic back when his polling showed him up only 2% nationwide. In 2020, Biden was projected to win by all of the analysts that use polling data to project the winner. But, Biden actually 'underperformed' in the election vs. what the polling data showed because once again...Trump voters show up more in the election than they do in the polls. For instance, the polling data had Biden winning Florida by 4-5 points in 2020 and he lost Florida to Trump. And many analysts were incredibly accurate in projecting the elections in 2022 predicting that there wouldn't be as big of a 'red wave' as many in the GOP were predicting. Also note that those that were predicting a big Red Wave on the polls were likely due to the lack of polling data post the overturn of Roe v Wade since that happened only a few months prior to the 2022 midterms. That's why polling data matters as far as an indicator what's going to happen in November. There's quite a few excellent analysts out there that outside of Trump's 2016 election, have been incredibly accurate with their electoral projections.
There is at least one scenario where that doesn't happen. Clinton would have won if people hadn't been sure she would win and therefore didn't bother to vote. Say that Trump can't win and, paradoxically, he can.
I wish, but absolutely not. No way on earth is anyone but Republicans winning places like Texas, Florida, Arkansas, Idaho. Trump has a better chance of winning this year than 2020.
If people actually vote. The problem with Democrats is that they have popular support, but people don't actually go out and make their voices heard by voting.
Reagan
I hope your right
I like you are style
Landslide I’m not so sure although it would not surprise me. But if I had to put money on it, Biden wins and the only change in the map is that GA turns red. No doubt a Trump loss would be a devastating blow to the GOP.
Lol, OP is really going to set off a shit storm right away this morning. I hope you're right. I'm so sick of the whiniest ex-president in history. Be mad, maga. All Trump does is piss and moan.
Gods I hope you’re right
Don't have a mental breakdown when you are wrong
Your optimism is noted.
Does no one read RULE 6!?
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
wut? I wish I could take monetary bets on some of these posts...
!remindme 165d
You sound like Tim Pool when he said Trump would win every state except for New York last election.
Yeah every time I point out how he's lost the popular vote twice I get the "fake news" deal. It's a fact that without the electoral college he would never have won in The first place. Biden could have a stroke on national tv and still win.
Sadly, it won’t be
Regan was Reagan's Chief of Staff, he never ran for president.
I completely agree with all of this besides the senate. I think in the senate dems get 55 at best. I also think the media narrative of polls and Trump being ahead is low key fear mongering to get more people out to vote against him.
!Remindme 165 days I wanna be able to laugh at how delusional this place is come the election. Even if Biden wins, youre smoking Hunters crack if you think hes gonna win by that much. If he does, theres 100% cheating involved
The polls were accurate in 2016. They were just terribly interpreted and manipulated by the media by not taking into account the electoral college system. Trump is most likely going to win this election, unfortunately.
I appreciate your optimism but, as you pointed out, we did this whole song and dance back in 2016 and...well...we know how that went. Trump has absolutely lost a ton of MAGAts but the conservative media outlets like Fox News and NewsMax have done a great job of keeping conservatives neck-deep in manufactured fear. At the end of the day, even for the conservatives who no longer worship Trump, it will come down to whether or not right-wing media has kept them scared enough. My money is on "yes". They won't vote for Biden because he's the devil (according to them) and they won't vote for another Republican candidate because they know that's as good as a vote for Biden. They'll still vote Trump, albeit begrudgingly...you know, the same reason a lot of us vote Biden. Most people don't love the dude but God damn, look at the alternative lol. I'd like to think Trump's dreams of a second term will die with a whimper, but the fanatics and even the skeptical Republican voters will still fight to ensure he takes office--be it in this election, the next one, or the one after that--until the day he dies. They're going to fight tooth and nail. TL;DR version: VOTE ANYWAY!
Doesn’t matter, vote anyway. The GOP tried to interfere last election and rig it for a win. They’ll absolutely try it again. They’re already sending out flyers to voters and trying to intimidate. And unfortunately, fear WORKS. Especially on those smooth brain voters. The GOP knows they’re running out of time, so they’re going to scare their voter base to the polls. And they’re going to try and interfere with votes. Before it was a small effort, now the MAGA crowd may think they need to help on their own and volunteer. That’s one thing OP isn’t considering, and a major reason why we all need to vote.
The Palestine protesters may be Democrats, but Republicans are funding them for sure. I support Palestinians, but it takes a special kind of stupid to think Trump would be better.
No it won't. They're already expecting numbers to be down from 2020. Only time will tell though
I think you're underestimating how many people are pissed off over the trajectory of the last few years. I also believe people feel somewhat annoyed and taken aback by the fact that the guy who was supposed to be straight and honest ends up lying about as much as the other guy. They're both awful, but under Trump people really were doing better financially, the border was secure, there were no major wars, things were cheaper. It doesn't even matter how much of this is the fault of Biden or leftover bullshit from Trump himself. Most voters aren't informed enough to make the distinction anyway. I think it's going to be a really close one for the reasons above and because RFK is likely to take some votes that would otherwise go to Biden.
> I live in MI so there are a ton of Arab muslims, and even they acknowledge they must vote for biden. or they wont vote at all. >Now while i havent seen many people seriously saying they wont vote for biden, i have seen MANY MANY trump supporters who say they will not be going out for round 3. Why are you trusting your own perception over public opinion polls with much larger sample sizes?
Still need to vote to make this happen, don't count on everyone else voting and hoping it's enough. Go vote, I can help you find out how to get registered if you need, just message me
RemindMe! 5 months 2 weeks
You need to wake yourself up, this is delusion, a dream.
Who is Regan?
It will be close. A lot of people are simply voting against the other party and not necessarily for a party.
This country is fucked. Both sides think the exact same shit, accuse each other of the same shit, and the uniparty is fucking Americans wholesale while y'all argue who's dick you want in your ass. The uniparty is extracting as much money from this dying country while securing citizenship, homes, businesses, and even positions in other nations. Infighting has killed a lot of countries and crippled even more. WAKE THE FUCK UP AND REALIZE NO POLITICIANS CARE ABOUT YOU AT ALL. THEY ONKY CARE ABOUT THEMSELVES.
When Ol Stinky had to draft his little sychophants to come cheer him in NY because not even a handful of his "rabid supporters" showed up at the courthouse, that was when you knew it was over. Red media will continue to say otherwise, and for a while after it's over, but it won't matter. This election and Covid 25 will be the end of the party, in general.
I like your optimism, although I am skeptical that gen z is going to show up to vote. That age group is politically aware but doesn’t typically turn out and it doesn’t feel like they’re in the mood to start now.
What happened since 2020? There won't be universal mail in voting due to a pandemic. That means a lot less people are likely to vote. The mail in ballots heavily favored democrats. Trump is polling way more favorably than in 2020 or 2016. Biden has a higher disapproval rating and Kennedy might make a 3rd party run. I say a lot of things are different since 2020.
Realistically we could be looking at an electoral college around 420D-120R.
Trump has basically already won Ohio about a year ago. I don't know how other states will fair but things look bleak here.
There will be much cheering tried from the right so it might make it close.
Making a prediction like this is risk free. If you are wrong … you won’t mention it and no one will remember you might even delete it. If you are right I’m sure you will repost and remind everyone. Anyone who thinks there will be a Blue or Red wave is just projecting what they hope for. It doesn’t happen. Or it leans one way and everyone calls it a “wave “. No the GOP won’t disappear and neither will the DNC. Palestine won’t decide the election neither will pro-life vs pro choice (it did in 22 because ruling and out right before election season) It most likely will be how the economy and immigration is handled in October. To be fair if Isreal is still fighting with Hamas by election time it WILL be an issue. There are solid vote my team regardless who it is voters. Those are not the ones that matter (unless they don’t show up because of over confidence). It’s the undecided that will make the difference. Biden has a record to attack and pick apart now like Trump did before. I think if you watch the debates it will be the best harbinger. Biden has a low bar on these. If he comes across as competent and not senile the poll numbers will correct. The reason the poll numbers were so skewed in 2016 is because people wouldn’t admit they preferred Trump over HRC and she believed the polls and coasted at the end. The 2020 polls had Biden winning but varied widely whether it would be a blowout or close but they all had him winning But if you want Trump to win. Definitely keep pushing the narrative that the GOP has no chance.
Please let your prediction be 100% true!
Me when delusional
There is a difference between polls not being 100% accurate and ignoring them completely. You have to be legitimately delusional to believe this in light of all the different polls and signs that Biden is not performing well in this campaign. Which isn't that unusual for the people spanning MMW with their political wet dreams
!remindme november 6 2024
Cope
I want some of whatever you're smoking. The Dem message now is basically status quo plus and "at least we're not Trump." Nothing very inspiring or energetic to get out the vote. The leader of the impotent opposition to Trump among Republicans just announced that she's voting for him, so it's likely many of her voters will as well. I think the orange menace has a very decent chance at a sequel. The polls back this up. Either way, it'll be yet another win for the deep pocket donor class and the corporations they run. The duopoly never dies.
This is a naive take but hope is good. The more people that vote will increase our chances of maintaining the status quo vs handing literally everything to the .00000001% while destroying the currency and shredding foreign relations except for intimate relationships with the governments of Russia and China whose authoritarian regimes our dicktator will breathlessly emulate. Let's aim for 53/47.
Naw, trump will win. If he doesn’t win legitimately enough state election officials will cheat for him to “win.”
Biden is definitely not going to win almost every state lmao. Tennessee, Texas, Alabama, probably georgia, and many other states will be red. Where tf do people come up with these ideas?
It is posts like this that make me realize why some people get so pissy even when they really get their way. It will be a whole lot closer than you predict, and MMW, you will be very salty about it, and either whine that it did not go the way you "knew" it should, or you will clam up about this prediction, since either way you had no control (or clear understanding) of the greater voting population. Right now, either party already claiming victory is complacent and lethargic. Don't set up the kind of expectations that will then lead to the wrong kinds of responses in January, and further bitterness, when we are going to need to figure out how to all deal with the results however they may fall.
I WANT TO BELIEVE
Hope this happens and I’m doing my part to make it happen.
The Bronx disagrees.
Welp, that’s a hot mess of a take. Remind me 2025. And I’m voting blue regardless.
My cousin Benny (1981-2019, RIP) agrees with your assessment and will definitely vote Blue!!
Biden isn't on the ballot on Ohio and I bet he wins anyway, somehow
With this much winning we should be able to pass legislation or constitutional amendment(s) to abolish gerrymandering (for any reason), establish federal election standards uniformly across the states, expand the supreme court, level representation in the House, and maybe even reform/abolish the electoral college.
Everyone needs to VOTE. The election is going to come down to six states. And it’s n Pretty close in those states. A couple hundred thousand voters who decide to go apathy route could decide the election. I don’t see it being a landslide as Americans have short memories and voting against someone doesn’t have the lasting power of being excited about someone. Which works both ways, and we have seen trumps rallies getting smaller and smaller, his truth tweets getting less and less likes, shares, and engagement, it seems his momentum is waning. Tons of examples of people leaving en masse before he is done speaking. He still has a rabid base that is ideologically captured, but I think many have broke through and left him. Either way, we need to fucking vote.
Yup definitely voting trump
Yeah not marking these words. 2 major hot wars started under Biden and tough economic times. Never gonna have a "Regan" victory with that in his record.
I do think Biden will get a clear win and it's possible to get a senate majority, but absolutely no way the senate goes even over 55 seats to the dems, let alone 60...or 66
Unlikely
The GOP is already dead, there is only MAGA. Vote! Vote! Vote! They have told us they are Nazi's, Believe them!!
I would be able to breathe again for the first time since 2016.
This post sounds to me like an attempt to make democratic voters complacent. DO NOT LET IT HAPPEN TO YOU! This could be shaping up to be the most runaway victory in the history of this nation and every single dem voter should still be running out to the polls to cast their vote. You have a right to vote don't let it go to waste.
Landslide? No. No chance. Love to see it, but absolutely not. I can see it being a larger margin than the last one, but 63% of the popular vote for Biden? Not happening. Too many people voting for the other side.
All this bullshit has me voting for the first time, and because of how insane R's have been, I'm blindly voting blue across fucking *everything*.
You’re forgetting about the Electoral College. The popular vote doesn’t win the presidency. VOTE!!!
You're either not paying attention or a right wing troll trying to convince the left they don't need to vote. They don't need money. Voting is free, and Trump gets all the publicity he wants for free all day, every day on every single corner of the internet and television. There is no republican disillusionment. Disillusionment requires some degree of giving a shit about reality and the consequences of policy. These people refused to take life-saving medicine simply because liberals wanted them to take it. These are not rational people. Stop trying to predict their behavior as though they were. And at the end of the day: Biden is polling poorly in places he needs to win. Trump is not. Republicans are going to vote republican, and in records numbers. Not because their candidate deserves it, but because they correctly see this election as their chance to win *every* election for the foreseeable future. I am BEGGING you and people like you to stop being this fucking arrogant.
It's never this, but only time will tell.
I hope so.
You are right that it will be a historic landslide.
lol what world do you live in?
I am hopeful, but anyone thinking Trump isn't gonna win a ton of states is crazy. VOTE!
I know that a second Trump term would be catastrophic for democracy, among many other issues. MY #1 reason for wanting to see him lose is so that he can face accountability for at least some of his misdeeds before he passes...
MMW the landslide comes and it's the death of the GOP but it's not Biden winning