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Twist_Frostyy

You ever get ibuprofen in a hospital and then look at the bill?


Asleep-Radish-263

I did look and encountered the worst anxiety & depression of my lifetime šŸ˜”. Bought in 2020, up to 97 shares and -$1470.00 & holding. . . šŸ˜€


Leetu5467

Just my opinion so take it with a grain of salt but I believe the profitability remains with the supply and demand. On a smaller scale 19% of the US population or 40M people suffer from anxiety disorders. So itā€™s safe to assume that roughly 20% give or take globally are suffering from similar experiences. With the current research from phase 2 about 8-12 weeks of remission, so a dose of 2-4x per year is 20-40$ annually if your talking about the current price of ā€œ10$ per hitā€ which Iā€™m expecting to go higher to 12-15 but thatā€™s just my assumption. Anyway so letā€™s say 10% of those effected do the treatment in the first year in the US alone, thatā€™s 4M x 20-40, or 80-160M a year, then take that number and consider global figures if it becomes more and more mainstream.


monkman99

10%of people with anxiety will take LSD? Thats an INSANE assumption.


Leetu5467

Totally made up number I know man, like I said take what I say with a grain of salt. Hype is a crazy thingā€¦ out of curiosity what was the percentage of people who injected themselves with the MRNA vaccine? My presumption is the conversion of lsd from street drug to safe and effective treatment, but that will take time and research


gosumage

So your assumption is that millions, and eventually tens or hundreds of millions, of people around the world will be taking LSD regularly. I don't see that as realistic. They will also not be the only producer if/when it goes mainstream. LSD is very easy to produce in massive amounts. So it's likely they will only own a small fraction of the market share.


Economy_Practice_210

People on this sub who have personally used psychedelics tend to wildly overestimate how many patients with depression and anxiety want to take random street drugs of unknown provenance FDA-approved drugs are expensive to make because of R&D and clinical trial costs, and yes, companies like mindmed will charge health insurers a lot of money for the treatments -- $10,000 or more easily Because currently the alternative is a lifetime treatment spend on ER visits, chronic medication, in-patient care, etc. Most prescribed medicines cost like $1 to make. That doesn't affect how much they sell for


gosumage

Okay, so how much will it sell for? What's the best case scenario of customer base size, revenue, margin etc? Does anyone even have an idea? Charging thousands for a single dose is unfathomable. I get that therapy (with a therapist) could be incredibly expensive per session, but that money would be going to that therapist or their firm, not MNMD.


Economy_Practice_210

Investment banks like RBC Capital and others sketch out those exact estimates when they make their price targets A while back someone here shared an RBC note that had those figures, but I don't have regular access to them. They get sent to accredited wall street investors fwiw, RBC has the most conservative price target on MNMD and is still pretty bullish: https://www.wallstreetzen.com/news/analyst-optimistic-about-mind-medicine-s-mm120-and-raises-price-target-by-46-7#:\~:text=RBC%20Capital's%20Brian%20Abrahams%20raised,on%202024%2F03%2F08. On the cost question, it absolutely is true that the cost will be $10,000 or more and most of it will go to MNMD. Paid for by health insurance Google "spravato" and J&J to see a real-world example of how it works


Minnow125

I disagree that LSD is easy to produce. You have to have significant knowledge of chemistry to produce it. I also believe large quantities of of LSD on the streets is not pure and some of it is not even LSD. Then there is the stigma of it being illegal as a Class I drug. Your average person who may be suffering from anxiety or depression does not know where to go to buy LSD, nor would they want to risk being arrested trying to buy it. Then there are the manufacturers that can face serious prison time if caught. Legally prescribed LSD through a medical professional , in known and controlled dosages, simply does not exist. Mindmed will fill that void.


monkman99

There are three stores in Vancouver where you can walk in and buy lsd.


gosumage

A chemist, who is the only person who should attempt to produce LSD, can do so very easily.


PenetrationT3ster

And you think they are toms and tons of chemists who can readily create a drug that will be schedule 3 and controlled? It genuinely doesn't make sense your line of thought.


gosumage

No, but why do you think there is so much LSD available on the black market? Those who produce it are able to do so in mass quantities, as a single person in a lab. Of course, one needs to be a trained chemist to do this. But when you know how, it's not hard to follow the process. It's not a secret or anything. The real issue is obtaining all the necessary equipment and having access to a lab.


PenetrationT3ster

This is the point though.. Most people don't know how to use the black market i.e. dark web, don't want to go out their way to find LSD, don't trust drug dealers, don't know what's in the paper i.e. NBOM, and people don't have the time to do all that stuff. And MOST importantly imo: using psychedelics on their own is great, but integration is KEY to healing. The paint brush is the LSD and the art teacher is the therapist.. they will tell you how to use the tools you have in a safe and controlled environment. That's the key to this industry, it's not like you take LSD or shrooms and suddenly you're cured. It's an art, and it takes time to heal through therapy. This is the industry that will become mainstream one day. Why are any other drugs in the industry? Why don't you produce your own aspirin? Own ibuprofen? Or any other drug? It's a moot point.


gosumage

Well, I agree with all of that. My question was with the potential profitability of a single dose solution. I've since edited my original post with what I've learned while researching today.


PenetrationT3ster

I think it's specifically in the sub chemical derivatives of these drugs. Unlikeable properties like come up anxiety, long lasting highs etc. can be eradicated and we'll get the benefits still. That's very difficult to do and can be patented.


Leetu5467

Actually Iā€™m counting on the effectiveness of the drug and hope it doesnā€™t become a dependency for the majority of users. Thereā€™s always a very real risk it could be used recreationally or not in the recommended 100mg amounts which is always a concern which could damage the reputation of its efficacy. The point I was trying to make is the opportunity for growth as more research and clinical trials are done and the stigma behind it dissolves is where the monetization comes into play. MNMD or MMED is a brand with a very strong history and when this comes to market 3-5 years from now i believe it can do a lot more good than harm to those who need it. And to me I feel the demand especially in todays world is higher than the supply or ā€œease of productionā€, maybe that will change who knows but thatā€™s what Iā€™m hoping for, we need it lol


Which_Trust_8107

You think my mom is gonna hit the ā€˜bad part of townā€™ to get a hit of overpriced acid with who knows what inside risking who knows what?


Onr3ddit

But is LSD really cheap? Considering you cannot buy it from a licensed company then the only prices youā€™ll find are from the street level. On street level Itā€™s not even real LSD on the streets nor a medically regulated and patented dosage. Street acid is less than 100% pure even without being intentionally cut but simply because itā€™s being manufactured in clandestine conditions and left with impurities. Allot of the time LSA or other compounds will be sold to you as LSD. And the dosage is nearly impossible to know, since it will degrade in the air and who knows who put it on the blotter. So many times Iā€™ve had ā€œ200ugā€ tabs but I end up taking 4 cause that shits not even 100ug. Or I take way too many tabs that turned out to be the real deal and didnā€™t have the best time lol. Even with a solid connect with a network of real psychedelic lovers and not lowlife criminals you cannot garuntee anything about your acid. I was shocked to learn that the first LSD was always found in crystalline form or as a liquid, this paper shit is not the real deal. Also since when have you ever had just $10 of acid in one sitting? 10 years ago I used to buy a sheet for $300-600 Canadian depending on the batch, and would take at least 2-4 tabs per time I did it. Thatā€™s between $6-24 per trip at wholesale prices not adjusted for inflation. I would charge people $10 per tab and $80 for a strip. Imagine the premium you can charge for selling the real deal. Fuck if I had a Canadian government certification that this was 100% pure LSD nothing less Iā€™d pay $100 maybe even more right now for only 1 tab. This fentanyl crisis has made me very mindful of buying anything from the streets nowadays, you literally never know, I have a buddy I grew up with get Narcaned for doing blow just this past weekend and he bought it from someone close to him. Lastly Iā€™d like to point out this isnā€™t the recreational and illegal drug trade. This is Mind MEDICINE


Pizza_shark531

Quadruple overdose from fentanyl laced blow in my town a few weeks agoā€¦the most recent in a long list of fentanyl related deaths


Onr3ddit

Belleville?


Pizza_shark531

South Lake Tahoe


gosumage

Fentanyl is definitely a problem, but is anyone mixing fent with acid? And there are fent tests readily available on Amazon. If your friend had used one prior to snorting cocaine, he would have been just fine, as he would have known and not taken it. Be educated and be safe.


Pizza_shark531

The point is that street drugs are increasingly untrustworthy and dangerous these days


gosumage

Right. Be educated and be safe.


Pizza_shark531

Hence why people will be willing to pay more for premium, safe and regulated stuffā€¦not to mention that the average person doesnā€™t even know where to get $10 acid. Sure, all of us here probably know where to find itā€¦but early investors in psychedelic startups donā€™t represent the average person.


ThunderArtifact

Bruh donā€™t compare your nasty ass $10 Nbomes garbage to fucking MindMedā€™s MM-120 ā€œsend your ass to the end of the universe and backā€ legendary shit


FakoMagician

Like others wrote earlier on same posts asking this reasonable question, street heroin just as cheap but it is still a viable industry for pharma. Same with most illegal drugs that have their medicinal legal counterpart.


SharpSocialist

Opioids are extremely addictive. Psychedelics are not at all.


gosumage

Of course, but that's not the point. All those drugs require continuous use. This treatment requires just 1.


Professional-Cup-422

The average person actually won't be cured through just one treatment. While it is very effective for many people and the benefits of the treatment can be perceived for even several months after for some people, it still isn't one a time cure for many. Their symptoms often do come back, perhaps in a lesser way than before. The benefit of Psychidelics is that one course of treatment every few months is going to be miles better than someone taking SSRIs/antidepressants, etc each day for the foreseeable future and dealing with the numerous possible side effects.


Educational_Art_6028

It's a therapy treatment. Think of it like this - The "hit of acid off the street" example is like saying you don't need a therapist to address your chronic depression because you can just bitch to your coworker and have the exact same result. I don't know how many therapy treatments their study required to achieve the result, but I don't think it was many, and yes, they did work negating MoM or YoY revenue. The therapy will be costly and millions of people will qualify for it.


gosumage

From what I've read of their documents, there is no therapy, they just give the dose. 1 dose. What is the therapy?


Educational_Art_6028

Go back and read the toppling data doc they presented. People are dosed alongside an assisted therapy session. They aren't just given a pill and sent on the street. - https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/\_703b978c5569deb6cc050466c2df3e17/mindmed/db/2265/21423/pdf/MindMed%27s+Conference+Call+and+Webcast+on+MM120+for+Generalized+Anxiety+Disorder+%28GAD%29%3B+March+2024\_FINAL.pdf


Which_Trust_8107

Youā€™re wrong, in the latest phase 2b trial for MM120 there was no therapy. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mindmed-receives-fda-breakthrough-therapy-110000670.html > MindMed previously announced rapid, clinically meaningful, and statistically significant improvements on the Hamilton Anxiety rating scale (HAM-A) compared to placebo at Week 4, which was the trialā€™s primary endpoint. MM120 was administered as a single dose in a monitored clinical setting *with no additional therapeutic intervention*.


gosumage

They aren't sent on the street but they aren't therapized. Just observed, from what I read.


Minnow125

Most LSD on the ā€œstreetsā€ now is garbage compared to 20-30 years ago, if it even is LSD


Motor-Net434

Exactly, the efficacy is in the therapy treatment. There are currently evidenced based practices for individual therapy where actually nothing physical needs to be purchased, it is just that the therapist knows how to utilize what they have learned. To be trained and certified in these ec8denced based practice therapies is $$$. I see the thesis here of not just someone getting a hit and not having GAD, but rather thet we are buying into is the intervention which includes LSD. I'm sure fidelity to the specific intervention will be tightly controlled, especially in the beginning.Ā  At least that is how I see it.Ā 


gosumage

There is no therapist in the study. They give 1 dose and see major improvement with no other therapy. What therapy are you talking about and what does it have to do with MNMD?


Jaaksjungus

Most medicine is cheap to make, but costs a lot. You donā€™t even have to go back one week on this sub to find the answers you are looking for. But Iā€™m glad you havenā€™t invested yet (as it sounds like). Always good to ask all the necessary questions before entering :-)


gosumage

Nobody has an answer to this question. How much will the drug cost? Projected? Guess-timate? The only way they make money from this is by selling single doses at very unrealistic prices.


FigmentShulan

Check out the delta between illegal and legal ketamine.


Which_Trust_8107

Just out of curiosity, what is the delta?


Substantial_Owl_300

Difference i guess


Fun-Reflection5013

Wasn't this promoted by Kein O'Dreary ?


antjamesvir

I learned so much from what the OP learned during this process.


gosumage

We all learn together :)


PsychoBuffet

Medicine is not cost+margin business. If you can (= have dominant position granted by protected IP), you price the product based on its value. What's the value for employer if MM120 can get rid of GAD which will reduce employees absence days from work? What's the value for insurance company if MM120 can reduce expensive downstream therapy sessions and treatment costs for much worse conditions? What's the value for patient when he actually can get mentally fit again instead of popping SSRIs for the rest of his life (or at least for three months based on published data)? Drumroll... it's not cost+margin.


gosumage

It's all about cost and margin, otherwise where is the money needed to run the business and continue to grow coming from? I don't understand how what you are saying makes sense.


PsychoBuffet

Sorry, perhaps I wasn't so clear with my message: Drug companies price the product as high as they possibly can considering it's value and willingness to pay by insurance companies or sometimes the end users. This is often way beyond the company slapping a margin on top of their production + R&D cost. That's also why many of us are investing in these companies since the value they bring and the resulting pricing potential gives them fascinating revenue potential.


No_Collar_Yet

US Veterans, people of God, rich conservatives, need I go on. I think what many forget is there is a very wide swath of people who will never do anything illegal or against God, so here is where regulated, safe and FDA approved medicine not street drugs come into play. I have spoken with three psychiatrists who are giddy with excitement to add this new medicine to their arsenal to really help treat people. The only reason these street drugs are gaining popularity is because there is a boat load of money to be made. Look at the military, police and fireman - anyone who suffers from PTSD, insurance companies who can kick people off SSRI that have a 10% successful rate at best and then do the math. The rich Compass Pathway investor Peter Thiel has more connections in Congress and world wide than you can shake a stick at. Itā€™s funny to me how the importance of morden day finances escape most of us. Theil is not about to invest potentially millions to billions for an ROI of zero. That is not how the rich operate. Trust that if he is connected to a FDA Trial there better be positive results to follow. Look at the laws of the land and how the landscape is changing. Some of can easily get street drugs, but the second I saw the benefits to medical marjuana I quickly gave up my vendor for quality controlled and tested weed and Iā€™ll do the same for any other medicines. Are there some people who will try to medicate themselves sure, but I doubt it will put a scratch let alone dent in the machine that is being created in the psychedelic sphere.


ThatOneRedditBro

Thesis is we will go to ww3 and people are gonna have mass anxiety.


SharpSocialist

I tend to agree with you. I did invest in this stock but since then my understanding of capitalism has changed. I believed in mindmed because I believe that psychedelics can be very helpful for treating mental health issues. But if you really want a good pharmaceutical product (good to create profit), make something addictive. Make some pills that needs to be taken daily. Psychedelics are not addictive and work with a single dose. It is the perfect medication for us but not very good for profit.


gosumage

I love the company and what they're doing, but... don't see where the money will come from.