NVDA and AMD are not in any serious competition. NVDA couldnt give two figs about gaming anymore, its a side business now. They keep it because its a good test bed. And AMD's AI chips will never take any significant marketshare because AMD sucks at software. Like so, so, so badly. Can you believe there is not even a ROCm backend for pytorch **edit: on windows** ? I wouldnt use AMD's AI chip even if I got them for free. For AI chips, NVDA is like SpaceX. The competition is fighting for whom can be second place.
But there is in fact some synergy, because as popular as NVDA's GPUs are, you still need a CPU to use them, and thats where AMD can shine.
>Can you believe there is not even a ROCm backend for >pytorch?
No I can't, because it's [not true?](https://pytorch.org/get-started/locally/)
pip3 install torch torchvision torchaudio --index-url https://download.pytorch.org/whl/rocm6.0
That's all it takes
There's plenty of reasons nvidia is better than amd for ml, but let's not stray from the truth.
Sorry, forgot to type "for windows".
>
>ERROR: Could not find a version that satisfies the requirement torch (from versions: none)
>ERROR: No matching distribution found for torch
From pytorch itself: [https://pytorch.org/](https://pytorch.org/)
NOTE:
ROCm is not available on Windows
If you meant Windows then why single out pytorch?
The whole of rocm doesn't work on Windows excluding edge cases because they missed their 'rocm on windows' deadlines in rocm 6.0 and 6.1
If you're an AI industry researcher you'd already be running anything that requires more than 1 gpu off a server running Linux.
And you'd most likely remote into the pytorch env. Say though a jupyter notebook, and never care about (or even know about) the os it runs on.
It's only really a problem for hobbyists.
The lack of Rocm on windows is a much bigger problem for pretty much any other industry software than pytorch
We do that too. But what we develop is to be used on a product and tool chain that has to run on Windows, so not being able to run it on Windows on the same computers that the toolchain is is a huge drag.
That lack of support is just one example of their terrible record with all software matters.
And you'd still be able to do that without changing a single line of code, because whether you use nvidia or amd, you're training on some servers venv you acces through your browser anyway lmao. Any further development or inferencing on your local machine can happily be done using cuda in windows, and doesn't even require pytorch.
The only time you'd be cursing is if you had to train the model on your local machine. Any other workflow would see no change. It really is the weakest example of the atrocity that rocm can be.
AMD earnings are suggesting they are failing to meet the market where the market wants to be met.
So you can do these flips and tricks, but you need to rectify it with why earnings are only surging on the NVDA side of the fence.
>It's only really a problem for hobbyists.
Every time I have ever dabbled in AI the requirement of using Linux has been a deal breaker. I've run dual-boor and VM setups in the past, but these setups make it hard for hobby development. And setting up AI drivers using WSL isn't quite a science yet.
Most of my hobby programming happens in small spurts between gaming, and having to do a full restart or load a heavy VM to do 15 minutes of coding really isn't worth it (and no Linux gaming still isn't quite there yet).
You don't have to today. Using mamba/miniforge and CUDA on Windows, I can very comfortably do every bit of training and inference for my professional needs without even using a VM. Just a virtual environment that you can get in and out of in milliseconds. You should try again!
NVDA still likes gaming. It’s just they are so good at it there isn’t great competition. But they have to stay ahead for a long time according to their price.
Its really far fetched to call AMD competition at this point. Maybe historically in gaming but now its just two different companies and one is already very far ahead
Honestly the gap in AI is about the same as the gap in gaming GPUs now. at least they are on the same magnitude. Oddly i do think the AI gap is actually easier for AMD to make progress on.
Sure. Also . . . Feel free to disagree. I am not trying to drive any narrative or conformity on the issue. more just sharing opinions. keep in mind this is not why nvidia or AMD are better at gaming/AI. just a comparison of why AMD is more competitive in AI than Gaming on a relative scale.
So AMD is selling about 400m of dGPUs per quarter. NVDA is at $2,800 worth. So NVDA is about 7x more than AMD there.
on AI it is more like 18000/900 = 20x. But i do think AMD as a growth percentage is going to advance faster than Nvidia. so their 20x should be reduced to 10x sometime in a yearish? maybe by Q1 2025 depending on how things play out.
Why is AI easier for AMD to make inroads? three reasons:
(TLDR; AMD gaming GPU hardware is not as good as nvidias. Nvidia has PC OEMs on lockdown. AMD's AI hardware is very good. Nvidia doesn't have AI customers on lock down (particularly hyperscale customers))
1. Hyperscalers do not want to be locked into cuda. They have a high amount of interest in alternatives. This is in stark contrast to gaming where gamers, OEMs, and developers tend towards Nvidia's dominance. Between mindshare, Nvidias software tools, and Nvidias ability to provide assistance to developers and OEMs AMD is almost shut out of gaming with the exception of Sony, Xbox, and DIY GPU sales. But those gaming markets are either very small (DIY) or very low margin (sony, xbox). So Nvidia reaps the bulk of all the profits. This is a pretty stark contrast to AI. Now . . . AMD's position is currently worse in AI than Gaming . . . For example their gaming drivers are typically very good and equal to nvidia. While Nvidia's CUDA and AI are far superior to AMD's software. But AMD is making very rapid strides.
2. Nvidia cannot enforce GPP (geforce partner program) like practices at hyperscale customers and others like they can with OEMs. Not sure if you are familiar with GPP but it is Nvidias program to provide support to OEM partners based on their level of dedication to nvidia products. AMD really doesn't have an answer to this and their business practice of just trying to be a really good partner to OEMs basically leaves them dead in the water with almost zero market share, and zero path to take more market share with the exception of DIY GPU sales.
3. AMD's AI hardware is more competitive than their gaming GPU hardware (their gaming GPU hardware is particularly lacking in Power efficiency, ray tracing, die sizes are larger, and they have too much memory IMO- driving costs up). People might have issues with the software, but for inferencing AMD hardware is superior for the time being, and with software support will be superior. mi400 should solve a lot of the training issues as well. TBD. Even with blackwell it looks like nvidia will have an advantage in terms of server density. But AMD will be very competitive if they can find solutions to increase server density (TBD). I also don't think Nvidia has any interest to compete on price. They will be happy to let AMD take another 5% market share to maintain 80%+ margins.
4. Demand for AI will drag AMD with it. This is not the case for gaming.
The one wild card for AMD is that Strix Halo looks quite good according to rumors. But . . . its a wild card that I'm not couting on. and i honestly think it will suffer due to GPP and AMD's lack of high dollar MDF for OEMs. probably only be 1 or 2 good laptops using it. maybe Asus G14 or G17 and probably and maybe some crappy HP or lenovo "high end" device that performs like crap.
I dont think Gaudi3 will be better hardware than H100/200 or MI300x. So i don't think it applies.
The Habana labs team does appear to be quite good though. In addition it is pretty much a blackwell or MI350x competitor in terms of volume/availability . . . So . . .
But i agree, if gaudi ends up being a compelling piece of hardware very similar advantages would apply to it. But again, the point of this post wasnt about who's accelerator is better. It is mostly about why AMD struggles with gaming dGPUs.
Not to any appreciable extent. Virtually no laptops or prebuilt desktops with arc. (Not that it matters, amd has virtuallly no market share here either). And on every gpu selling website arc is nearly always the worst seller. Far below any RTG cards.
Arc is a horrible architecture. And because it is so bad, there is no margin or profit for intel, oems, aibs, or retailers. So it gets no love. Its only pushed as a favor yo intel and probably because intel sells the them at a loss.
Amazons best selling video cards has 1 arc card in the top 100 and it is spot #80. This indicates a sub 1% market share.
Mindfactory says they have sold around 700 cards (17 different cards). For comparison AMD has 71 cards available and over 70,000 cards sold. This indicates that ARC has \~1% of AMD's market share in DIY, which is estimated to be maybe 40-50% of the DIY market. So again . . arc has 0.5% share or less maybe.
At the end of the day all signals point to sub 1% market share for Intel's Arc. Feel free to check out other outlets. But its all kinda the same story.
Sorry somehow I missed this comment.
So what you said is all makes sense and I agree to some extent but its theoritical IMO and reality its a bit different.
1- If hyperscalers had the choice they would ditch both AMD and NV and go their own route, but in reality making chips AND using them effeciently scale is not as easy as it looks. Those are 3 criterias that in depth have more complexities than it looks like... its not about making a powerfull chip in itself, its not just having good drivers for said chip... its about a good chip with a very good ecosystem that works in scale. I currently don't see anything remotely close from AMD. I mean AMD going opensource just proves they lack the talent or knowledge to do something similar.
2- NV cannot enforce GPP but everyone else is forced to buy from NV thats why they rock \~75% marging. Not to mention NV is "circling" customers with new products and making them dependent on the NV ecosystem... similar to MS O365 or any ecosystem where you basically make it really hard to move away from you.
3- Sure its competitive in theory but so far we did not see it work in scale or any serious 3rd party benchmarks.
4- yeah AMD will benefit from the current market but by howmuch?
I honestly see other companies competing more with NV than AMD.
Crazy side note/factoid that no one ever talks about: AMD CEO Lisa Su and Nvidia co-founder and CEO Jen-Hsun Huang are relatives. Su's maternal grandfather is the eldest brother of Huang's mother.
They both be playing us all!
AMD, ASML, TSMC, SMCI all tell the same story. It’s a crack in the narrative. Everyone knows semis drop on Q1. But the new narrative was SUPPOSED to be semis are up up up - at least for the next two years
Nvidia is gonna be up :)
Donno if that counts for the whole industry ;)
The Q1 "everyone knows" thing not so sure. Traditionally yes, technology, PCs were down on demand pull for sure, but semiconductors have such a long lead now, that "down-ness" would be reflected more like in 2H of the prior year.
Today, I think ML is recession and cycle proof, at least for the near term.
Just keep in mind Nvidia moved sideways for three quarters last year. Earnings beats don’t mean anything anymore. Investors want a big surprise or they rotate elsewhere. Like bonds. As far as Nvidia, it already moved up substantially this year. So unless it has a massive earnings beat it won’t move at all.
I will disagree slightly. I think Nvidia will be up at end of year by a small to decent amount, but most of that upwards momentum will happen in Q4. Remember that the market generally is up year over year. Nvidia is a great company and is a major weight for the sp500. Its likely to benefit from both of those facts even if the rest of the market struggles. I think it will continue to have buyers even when the rest of the market is struggling and I think most of the people who wanted to take profits already did, so sellers might be a bit limited.
Think about it. The revenue isnt going to tank. The company has AAA rated customers who are beating down the door for their product. That demand wont dry up for years. They have zero real competition. So anyone selling shares over the short term are doing it either because they are short sighted, need the money now, or are trying to reduce any leverage they might have. There is a good chance the stock will spend a few months going sideways but the amount of shares traded in this stable range might make it really hard to get moving again for awhile, but when it does move it will be to continue going up.
I think it will be somewhere between $900 and $1000 by end of year. 2025 will see the price run up significantly.
Playing Nvidia is like playing roulette. You can win big or you can lose it all. They’re a one trick pony and if that trick stutters, they’re hosed. But don’t, take my word for it. Take their CEO’s.
well as far as consoles go it sounds like there is an inventory problem and the new PS5 pro is launching this year, so they are probably working through inventory.
Gaming will be down in Q1, but due to normal seasonality and not the major drop AMD saw.
Feel like AMD's gaming has entered a cyclical decline. Radeon is doing poorly as usual and consoles sales are slowing fast. CPUs will keep the company afloat though but this valuation 😂
So AMD is suffering in Gaming while Nvidia is emptying the shelves it sounds to make room for Blackwell desktop GPUs.
I don't think gaming is in a cyclical decline, I think Nvidia is going to deliver 11-12B in the segment this year.
But Nvidia is getting dragged down from AMD's shitty gaming numbers. Hopefully this is short lived.
Yeah AMD's gaming lol nvidia doesn't have consoles aside from the switch. Gaming doesn't even matter to nvidia stock anymore tbh. The fact that it's even a talking point is not good for AMD. Like nvidia's auto sales goes up and down but nobody cares about that.
For PlayStation its business as usual for AMD, and this is overlooking the whole COVID situation.
I know that Xbox sales have been dwindling, but this has been the case from even the previous gen ... that said, i did not expect a whooping 31% drop in that regard in the recent Microsoft earnings report, so you might be right in that front.
For the past 3 months, Xbox is pretty much sending all of the signals that it's no longer pushing console sales for this generation. Can't imagine that AMD has been thrilled about this.
Takeaways: Damn this is playing out basically exactly as I predicted a year ago. They can sell everything they can make and they're going to do about $5b on the year. Jensen has the supply chain on lock and won't give AMD much room to breathe. This was the crucial year for AMD I think, they had a window where MI300 had better specs and could make a price/perf argument to incentivize the community to develop software for them. If they can't make the damn things and sell now then things are only going to get worse next year.
Except for the part where the analyst asked about some CSP backing off their orders. They've only shipped \~$1B in DC GPUs in total.
The other part to except is that AMD share holders are the perpetual optimists, MI400 is just around the corner and THAT ONE is bound to be the home run. . . Virtual ratcheting (between investors and company) at it's finest.
My impression is that Lisa is starting to show some wear and tear from keeping all the plates spinning. Gaming took a kick in the nuts, will again next Q, PC and Server CPUs are flat, FPGAs was never a dynamic business, and DC GPUs are the great white hope -- the only way to keep the train on the rails.
I gave a bit more thoughts over on AMD_Stock: https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/1cgx4rk/amd_q1_2024_earnings_discussion/l20lv3n/
Yeah AMD is just an okay but rather boring traditional chip company. Lisa was unexpectedly swept up into a revolutionary moment for the industry and has to cosplay being one of the great visionaries when she is anything but. I don't blame her this is just the hand she was dealt, but investors need to calm down and see the company for what it is, stop putting so much fomo induced hopes on this one company after missing out on nvidia.
Wow those guys are insecure.
> Hate to burst all your bubbles guys, NVDA investor here, sold my AMD last year. AMD's current demand is based on the lack of supply for NVIDIA. Later this year NVIDIA ramps, huge supply incoming, and we're moving onto blackwell, the story gets much harder for AMD. AMD really had to ramp right now when the supply was a weakpoint for nvidia and AMD can hang its hat on a memory advantage. Every year AMD doesn't make a breakthrough the nvidia ecosystem, sunk cost, and switching pains grow.
AMD has been a perpetual underdog, the short end of the CPU stick Intel and now getting their asses handed to them in GPU. Thin skins go with the territory.
AMD investor here...
You're 100% right. It's disappointing the blind hopium over there now, nothing more than an echo chamber of "4B is not bad guys, don't worry Mi400 will get us to 1T just be patient"
The first time I went into that sub the amount of hopium there is is just crazy and not healthy... I mean you invest your own money to make gains this is not a teams game where you must take a side no matter what.
exactly traditional in the sense also their culture is not one to attract top talent... I think this is often overlooked and can give you more clarity what the company plan is or where it is headed. In the end without the right talent you can't make anything no matter how much money you pour into it.
I just think AMD does not have what it is needed to move the needle. No big SW culture or high compensation to attract the top talent needed to make a difference and for me it looks like AMD is not willing to do that so at best there is comparable HW without the good SW to support it.
If they (Amd, and all the startups with ML processors) can’t grow when people don’t have an alternative, they won’t be able to sell when people do.
I think Lisa made a huge blunder buying Xilinx and Pensando - basically executing on a vision she had for data centers based on traditional computing. But the world moved to AI and accelerated computing and GPU. And Jensen doubled down and made it happen. It’s the only game in town for AI, and with GPT exploding - NVidia is king of the hill. The only question is whether the AI investments deliver ROI.
I don't really like those analogies because those companies paved the way for smartphones pre-iphone before losing to a better, more complete product. Here nvidia is both the innovator and the best executor while AMD is the clone who's late and worse and the only thing they have to compete on is price.
"The company reported net income of $123 million, or 7 cents per share, versus a net loss of $139 million, or 9 cents per share, during the year-earlier period. Revenue was up about 2% from a year earlier. The company’s adjusted earnings didn’t compare to analyst forecasts because AMD had added a new item for inventory loss.
AMD said its closely-watched Data Center segment grew 80% on a year-over-year basis to $2.3 billion thanks to sales of its MI300 AI chip, which competes with Nvidia’s AI graphics processors."
lets see, $158/.28 = hmm, yep confirmed, AMD is astronomically expensive
My old man told me to sell some of NVDA because he saw something about congressmen buying AMD. Said I should do the same...
I did not. Now NVDA will likely be down tomorrow...I'd guess as low as 820(I hope not lower).
But I'm thinking he's going to thank me over the long haul...and the short term.
Yeah amds valuation is ridiculous. More than two times market cap of Intel while have terrible margins, and no foundry. Not even a comparison to NVDA.
Its a good short candidate once this Ai mania ends. We have mag7 tech companies touting higher capex but I've yet to see a single one of these companies separate their Generative AI divisions so we can see AI capex, R&D costs, and profit that they are making from "AI."
I do think generative AI has an important part in the future, but the more than 15x electricity usage per prompt than search, hallucinations, copy-right concerns, make it a far less convincing future than old wallstreet geezers have come to believe.
The costs of processing chips and memory is way higher than it was in 2019, yes beyond inflation, but everything else has gone up too.
"Greed" is just a villainizing term. What most consumers want is excellent performance for a low cost. Those days are over. If you want the best you need to pay for it, just like buying a new Ferrari. Or there are plenty of <$200 graphics card options (and you can drive a Prius \[which used to cost $20K and now costs $40k\]).
I do hope the Amd and Smci drag NVidia down a bit. I want to buy more, and would rather get in at a 7xx price than current numbers. (Btw - in at multiple prices including 130, 270, 360, 150, 400…). In two years this will look like a great buying opportunity.
I am surprised that nobody put 2+2 together to realize that AMD also lost gaming market share to Intel. It is only going to get worse. Intel Arc is picking up steam... No pun.
During the late 90s, I used to choose AMD main processors over Intel to help the little guy, and because I was annoyed with the endless Intel Inside jingle everywhere.
I wish them the best of luck against Invidia.
Making the call to keep this thread, AMD's the closest competition as chip vendor so this is important for nvda investors to know.
NVDA and AMD are not in any serious competition. NVDA couldnt give two figs about gaming anymore, its a side business now. They keep it because its a good test bed. And AMD's AI chips will never take any significant marketshare because AMD sucks at software. Like so, so, so badly. Can you believe there is not even a ROCm backend for pytorch **edit: on windows** ? I wouldnt use AMD's AI chip even if I got them for free. For AI chips, NVDA is like SpaceX. The competition is fighting for whom can be second place. But there is in fact some synergy, because as popular as NVDA's GPUs are, you still need a CPU to use them, and thats where AMD can shine.
>Can you believe there is not even a ROCm backend for >pytorch? No I can't, because it's [not true?](https://pytorch.org/get-started/locally/) pip3 install torch torchvision torchaudio --index-url https://download.pytorch.org/whl/rocm6.0 That's all it takes There's plenty of reasons nvidia is better than amd for ml, but let's not stray from the truth.
Sorry, forgot to type "for windows". > >ERROR: Could not find a version that satisfies the requirement torch (from versions: none) >ERROR: No matching distribution found for torch From pytorch itself: [https://pytorch.org/](https://pytorch.org/) NOTE: ROCm is not available on Windows
Just finished an all AMD LLM rig running LM studio on windows with rocm, am I missing something here?
If you meant Windows then why single out pytorch? The whole of rocm doesn't work on Windows excluding edge cases because they missed their 'rocm on windows' deadlines in rocm 6.0 and 6.1
I singled out pytorch because frankly, like most AI industry researchers, Im not interested in other frameworks than pytorch.
If you're an AI industry researcher you'd already be running anything that requires more than 1 gpu off a server running Linux. And you'd most likely remote into the pytorch env. Say though a jupyter notebook, and never care about (or even know about) the os it runs on. It's only really a problem for hobbyists. The lack of Rocm on windows is a much bigger problem for pretty much any other industry software than pytorch
We do that too. But what we develop is to be used on a product and tool chain that has to run on Windows, so not being able to run it on Windows on the same computers that the toolchain is is a huge drag. That lack of support is just one example of their terrible record with all software matters.
And you'd still be able to do that without changing a single line of code, because whether you use nvidia or amd, you're training on some servers venv you acces through your browser anyway lmao. Any further development or inferencing on your local machine can happily be done using cuda in windows, and doesn't even require pytorch. The only time you'd be cursing is if you had to train the model on your local machine. Any other workflow would see no change. It really is the weakest example of the atrocity that rocm can be.
"I dont have your requirements, so your requirements are stupid". Good day sir.
AMD earnings are suggesting they are failing to meet the market where the market wants to be met. So you can do these flips and tricks, but you need to rectify it with why earnings are only surging on the NVDA side of the fence.
Great dick measuring context here
>It's only really a problem for hobbyists. Every time I have ever dabbled in AI the requirement of using Linux has been a deal breaker. I've run dual-boor and VM setups in the past, but these setups make it hard for hobby development. And setting up AI drivers using WSL isn't quite a science yet. Most of my hobby programming happens in small spurts between gaming, and having to do a full restart or load a heavy VM to do 15 minutes of coding really isn't worth it (and no Linux gaming still isn't quite there yet).
You don't have to today. Using mamba/miniforge and CUDA on Windows, I can very comfortably do every bit of training and inference for my professional needs without even using a VM. Just a virtual environment that you can get in and out of in milliseconds. You should try again!
NVDA still likes gaming. It’s just they are so good at it there isn’t great competition. But they have to stay ahead for a long time according to their price.
Its really far fetched to call AMD competition at this point. Maybe historically in gaming but now its just two different companies and one is already very far ahead
Honestly the gap in AI is about the same as the gap in gaming GPUs now. at least they are on the same magnitude. Oddly i do think the AI gap is actually easier for AMD to make progress on.
How? Can you explain?
Sure. Also . . . Feel free to disagree. I am not trying to drive any narrative or conformity on the issue. more just sharing opinions. keep in mind this is not why nvidia or AMD are better at gaming/AI. just a comparison of why AMD is more competitive in AI than Gaming on a relative scale. So AMD is selling about 400m of dGPUs per quarter. NVDA is at $2,800 worth. So NVDA is about 7x more than AMD there. on AI it is more like 18000/900 = 20x. But i do think AMD as a growth percentage is going to advance faster than Nvidia. so their 20x should be reduced to 10x sometime in a yearish? maybe by Q1 2025 depending on how things play out. Why is AI easier for AMD to make inroads? three reasons: (TLDR; AMD gaming GPU hardware is not as good as nvidias. Nvidia has PC OEMs on lockdown. AMD's AI hardware is very good. Nvidia doesn't have AI customers on lock down (particularly hyperscale customers)) 1. Hyperscalers do not want to be locked into cuda. They have a high amount of interest in alternatives. This is in stark contrast to gaming where gamers, OEMs, and developers tend towards Nvidia's dominance. Between mindshare, Nvidias software tools, and Nvidias ability to provide assistance to developers and OEMs AMD is almost shut out of gaming with the exception of Sony, Xbox, and DIY GPU sales. But those gaming markets are either very small (DIY) or very low margin (sony, xbox). So Nvidia reaps the bulk of all the profits. This is a pretty stark contrast to AI. Now . . . AMD's position is currently worse in AI than Gaming . . . For example their gaming drivers are typically very good and equal to nvidia. While Nvidia's CUDA and AI are far superior to AMD's software. But AMD is making very rapid strides. 2. Nvidia cannot enforce GPP (geforce partner program) like practices at hyperscale customers and others like they can with OEMs. Not sure if you are familiar with GPP but it is Nvidias program to provide support to OEM partners based on their level of dedication to nvidia products. AMD really doesn't have an answer to this and their business practice of just trying to be a really good partner to OEMs basically leaves them dead in the water with almost zero market share, and zero path to take more market share with the exception of DIY GPU sales. 3. AMD's AI hardware is more competitive than their gaming GPU hardware (their gaming GPU hardware is particularly lacking in Power efficiency, ray tracing, die sizes are larger, and they have too much memory IMO- driving costs up). People might have issues with the software, but for inferencing AMD hardware is superior for the time being, and with software support will be superior. mi400 should solve a lot of the training issues as well. TBD. Even with blackwell it looks like nvidia will have an advantage in terms of server density. But AMD will be very competitive if they can find solutions to increase server density (TBD). I also don't think Nvidia has any interest to compete on price. They will be happy to let AMD take another 5% market share to maintain 80%+ margins. 4. Demand for AI will drag AMD with it. This is not the case for gaming. The one wild card for AMD is that Strix Halo looks quite good according to rumors. But . . . its a wild card that I'm not couting on. and i honestly think it will suffer due to GPP and AMD's lack of high dollar MDF for OEMs. probably only be 1 or 2 good laptops using it. maybe Asus G14 or G17 and probably and maybe some crappy HP or lenovo "high end" device that performs like crap.
You just made a huge case for Guadi3 over MI300x.
I dont think Gaudi3 will be better hardware than H100/200 or MI300x. So i don't think it applies. The Habana labs team does appear to be quite good though. In addition it is pretty much a blackwell or MI350x competitor in terms of volume/availability . . . So . . . But i agree, if gaudi ends up being a compelling piece of hardware very similar advantages would apply to it. But again, the point of this post wasnt about who's accelerator is better. It is mostly about why AMD struggles with gaming dGPUs.
Intel is also taking AMD market share for gaming GPU.
Not to any appreciable extent. Virtually no laptops or prebuilt desktops with arc. (Not that it matters, amd has virtuallly no market share here either). And on every gpu selling website arc is nearly always the worst seller. Far below any RTG cards. Arc is a horrible architecture. And because it is so bad, there is no margin or profit for intel, oems, aibs, or retailers. So it gets no love. Its only pushed as a favor yo intel and probably because intel sells the them at a loss.
Arc is a great architecture and getting better!!! It is taking marketshare from AMD this is just simple math. Battlemage will tell the tale.
Amazons best selling video cards has 1 arc card in the top 100 and it is spot #80. This indicates a sub 1% market share. Mindfactory says they have sold around 700 cards (17 different cards). For comparison AMD has 71 cards available and over 70,000 cards sold. This indicates that ARC has \~1% of AMD's market share in DIY, which is estimated to be maybe 40-50% of the DIY market. So again . . arc has 0.5% share or less maybe. At the end of the day all signals point to sub 1% market share for Intel's Arc. Feel free to check out other outlets. But its all kinda the same story.
Sorry somehow I missed this comment. So what you said is all makes sense and I agree to some extent but its theoritical IMO and reality its a bit different. 1- If hyperscalers had the choice they would ditch both AMD and NV and go their own route, but in reality making chips AND using them effeciently scale is not as easy as it looks. Those are 3 criterias that in depth have more complexities than it looks like... its not about making a powerfull chip in itself, its not just having good drivers for said chip... its about a good chip with a very good ecosystem that works in scale. I currently don't see anything remotely close from AMD. I mean AMD going opensource just proves they lack the talent or knowledge to do something similar. 2- NV cannot enforce GPP but everyone else is forced to buy from NV thats why they rock \~75% marging. Not to mention NV is "circling" customers with new products and making them dependent on the NV ecosystem... similar to MS O365 or any ecosystem where you basically make it really hard to move away from you. 3- Sure its competitive in theory but so far we did not see it work in scale or any serious 3rd party benchmarks. 4- yeah AMD will benefit from the current market but by howmuch? I honestly see other companies competing more with NV than AMD.
Crazy side note/factoid that no one ever talks about: AMD CEO Lisa Su and Nvidia co-founder and CEO Jen-Hsun Huang are relatives. Su's maternal grandfather is the eldest brother of Huang's mother. They both be playing us all!
Gaming is cyclical af. Even data center slowed down this quarter. Q4 will be amazing, as always
I think we're going to see this phenom is isolated to AMD.
AMD, ASML, TSMC, SMCI all tell the same story. It’s a crack in the narrative. Everyone knows semis drop on Q1. But the new narrative was SUPPOSED to be semis are up up up - at least for the next two years
Nvidia is gonna be up :) Donno if that counts for the whole industry ;) The Q1 "everyone knows" thing not so sure. Traditionally yes, technology, PCs were down on demand pull for sure, but semiconductors have such a long lead now, that "down-ness" would be reflected more like in 2H of the prior year. Today, I think ML is recession and cycle proof, at least for the near term.
Just keep in mind Nvidia moved sideways for three quarters last year. Earnings beats don’t mean anything anymore. Investors want a big surprise or they rotate elsewhere. Like bonds. As far as Nvidia, it already moved up substantially this year. So unless it has a massive earnings beat it won’t move at all.
I will disagree slightly. I think Nvidia will be up at end of year by a small to decent amount, but most of that upwards momentum will happen in Q4. Remember that the market generally is up year over year. Nvidia is a great company and is a major weight for the sp500. Its likely to benefit from both of those facts even if the rest of the market struggles. I think it will continue to have buyers even when the rest of the market is struggling and I think most of the people who wanted to take profits already did, so sellers might be a bit limited. Think about it. The revenue isnt going to tank. The company has AAA rated customers who are beating down the door for their product. That demand wont dry up for years. They have zero real competition. So anyone selling shares over the short term are doing it either because they are short sighted, need the money now, or are trying to reduce any leverage they might have. There is a good chance the stock will spend a few months going sideways but the amount of shares traded in this stable range might make it really hard to get moving again for awhile, but when it does move it will be to continue going up. I think it will be somewhere between $900 and $1000 by end of year. 2025 will see the price run up significantly.
Every earnings should honestly be another leg up, if it ends at 1k I'll be disappointed.
Playing Nvidia is like playing roulette. You can win big or you can lose it all. They’re a one trick pony and if that trick stutters, they’re hosed. But don’t, take my word for it. Take their CEO’s.
That's a fair point. The one trick though is critical for AI development and as long as that is considered valuable they will be set.
well as far as consoles go it sounds like there is an inventory problem and the new PS5 pro is launching this year, so they are probably working through inventory. Gaming will be down in Q1, but due to normal seasonality and not the major drop AMD saw.
Feel like AMD's gaming has entered a cyclical decline. Radeon is doing poorly as usual and consoles sales are slowing fast. CPUs will keep the company afloat though but this valuation 😂
So AMD is suffering in Gaming while Nvidia is emptying the shelves it sounds to make room for Blackwell desktop GPUs. I don't think gaming is in a cyclical decline, I think Nvidia is going to deliver 11-12B in the segment this year. But Nvidia is getting dragged down from AMD's shitty gaming numbers. Hopefully this is short lived.
Yeah AMD's gaming lol nvidia doesn't have consoles aside from the switch. Gaming doesn't even matter to nvidia stock anymore tbh. The fact that it's even a talking point is not good for AMD. Like nvidia's auto sales goes up and down but nobody cares about that.
For PlayStation its business as usual for AMD, and this is overlooking the whole COVID situation. I know that Xbox sales have been dwindling, but this has been the case from even the previous gen ... that said, i did not expect a whooping 31% drop in that regard in the recent Microsoft earnings report, so you might be right in that front.
For the past 3 months, Xbox is pretty much sending all of the signals that it's no longer pushing console sales for this generation. Can't imagine that AMD has been thrilled about this.
No, it's that their gaming GPUs suck.
Takeaways: Damn this is playing out basically exactly as I predicted a year ago. They can sell everything they can make and they're going to do about $5b on the year. Jensen has the supply chain on lock and won't give AMD much room to breathe. This was the crucial year for AMD I think, they had a window where MI300 had better specs and could make a price/perf argument to incentivize the community to develop software for them. If they can't make the damn things and sell now then things are only going to get worse next year.
Except for the part where the analyst asked about some CSP backing off their orders. They've only shipped \~$1B in DC GPUs in total. The other part to except is that AMD share holders are the perpetual optimists, MI400 is just around the corner and THAT ONE is bound to be the home run. . . Virtual ratcheting (between investors and company) at it's finest. My impression is that Lisa is starting to show some wear and tear from keeping all the plates spinning. Gaming took a kick in the nuts, will again next Q, PC and Server CPUs are flat, FPGAs was never a dynamic business, and DC GPUs are the great white hope -- the only way to keep the train on the rails.
I gave a bit more thoughts over on AMD_Stock: https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/1cgx4rk/amd_q1_2024_earnings_discussion/l20lv3n/ Yeah AMD is just an okay but rather boring traditional chip company. Lisa was unexpectedly swept up into a revolutionary moment for the industry and has to cosplay being one of the great visionaries when she is anything but. I don't blame her this is just the hand she was dealt, but investors need to calm down and see the company for what it is, stop putting so much fomo induced hopes on this one company after missing out on nvidia.
deleted, musta had something juicy in it . .
Wow those guys are insecure. > Hate to burst all your bubbles guys, NVDA investor here, sold my AMD last year. AMD's current demand is based on the lack of supply for NVIDIA. Later this year NVIDIA ramps, huge supply incoming, and we're moving onto blackwell, the story gets much harder for AMD. AMD really had to ramp right now when the supply was a weakpoint for nvidia and AMD can hang its hat on a memory advantage. Every year AMD doesn't make a breakthrough the nvidia ecosystem, sunk cost, and switching pains grow.
AMD has been a perpetual underdog, the short end of the CPU stick Intel and now getting their asses handed to them in GPU. Thin skins go with the territory.
AMD investor here... You're 100% right. It's disappointing the blind hopium over there now, nothing more than an echo chamber of "4B is not bad guys, don't worry Mi400 will get us to 1T just be patient"
By then you'll be competing with Gaudi4. AMD won't even provide benchmarks for MI300's.
The first time I went into that sub the amount of hopium there is is just crazy and not healthy... I mean you invest your own money to make gains this is not a teams game where you must take a side no matter what.
exactly traditional in the sense also their culture is not one to attract top talent... I think this is often overlooked and can give you more clarity what the company plan is or where it is headed. In the end without the right talent you can't make anything no matter how much money you pour into it.
I just think AMD does not have what it is needed to move the needle. No big SW culture or high compensation to attract the top talent needed to make a difference and for me it looks like AMD is not willing to do that so at best there is comparable HW without the good SW to support it.
If they (Amd, and all the startups with ML processors) can’t grow when people don’t have an alternative, they won’t be able to sell when people do. I think Lisa made a huge blunder buying Xilinx and Pensando - basically executing on a vision she had for data centers based on traditional computing. But the world moved to AI and accelerated computing and GPU. And Jensen doubled down and made it happen. It’s the only game in town for AI, and with GPT exploding - NVidia is king of the hill. The only question is whether the AI investments deliver ROI.
AMD is to NVDA as Palm was to the I phone.
I typically go with Motorola.
Or blackberry 🤷♂️
I don't really like those analogies because those companies paved the way for smartphones pre-iphone before losing to a better, more complete product. Here nvidia is both the innovator and the best executor while AMD is the clone who's late and worse and the only thing they have to compete on is price.
More apt analogy is like Zune is to iPod. A decent hardware, but late to someone else’s party with lame software.
At the present time and for the foreseeable future I really think nvda is a one of one monster
"The company reported net income of $123 million, or 7 cents per share, versus a net loss of $139 million, or 9 cents per share, during the year-earlier period. Revenue was up about 2% from a year earlier. The company’s adjusted earnings didn’t compare to analyst forecasts because AMD had added a new item for inventory loss. AMD said its closely-watched Data Center segment grew 80% on a year-over-year basis to $2.3 billion thanks to sales of its MI300 AI chip, which competes with Nvidia’s AI graphics processors." lets see, $158/.28 = hmm, yep confirmed, AMD is astronomically expensive
My old man told me to sell some of NVDA because he saw something about congressmen buying AMD. Said I should do the same... I did not. Now NVDA will likely be down tomorrow...I'd guess as low as 820(I hope not lower). But I'm thinking he's going to thank me over the long haul...and the short term.
Yeah amds valuation is ridiculous. More than two times market cap of Intel while have terrible margins, and no foundry. Not even a comparison to NVDA. Its a good short candidate once this Ai mania ends. We have mag7 tech companies touting higher capex but I've yet to see a single one of these companies separate their Generative AI divisions so we can see AI capex, R&D costs, and profit that they are making from "AI." I do think generative AI has an important part in the future, but the more than 15x electricity usage per prompt than search, hallucinations, copy-right concerns, make it a far less convincing future than old wallstreet geezers have come to believe.
It’s too bad NVDA is related. Boomers pull out of NVDA because AMD is similar
Doesn't really matter in the scheme of things though, if their wrong the stock will go back up when Nvidia reports earnings
Anyone else listening to the call? Lisa is full of hmm, CEO talk.
Amd gpu are so weak compared to nvda. No resale value either. I'm surprised it's not down more.
Shocking..lol
Imagine that, cant compete with nvidia. They should sell Radeon to TikTok
I just want similar options at reasonable prices like we had in 2019. The price hikes have far exceeded inflation. It’s just greedy now.
The costs of processing chips and memory is way higher than it was in 2019, yes beyond inflation, but everything else has gone up too. "Greed" is just a villainizing term. What most consumers want is excellent performance for a low cost. Those days are over. If you want the best you need to pay for it, just like buying a new Ferrari. Or there are plenty of <$200 graphics card options (and you can drive a Prius \[which used to cost $20K and now costs $40k\]).
I do hope the Amd and Smci drag NVidia down a bit. I want to buy more, and would rather get in at a 7xx price than current numbers. (Btw - in at multiple prices including 130, 270, 360, 150, 400…). In two years this will look like a great buying opportunity.
I am surprised that nobody put 2+2 together to realize that AMD also lost gaming market share to Intel. It is only going to get worse. Intel Arc is picking up steam... No pun.
for how down people are on intc, they should be even more down on amd which doesn’t have a foundry business
She's doing the leather shirt thing huh?
why she look so much like the nvidia guy lmao its like theyre twins
Cuda & Cuda core 😏
Imagine if they’re actually related 😂
its actually an uncanny resemblance
Can't sense if there is sarcasm, but they are legit cousins..
Wait this is news to me LOL
isnt that a little suspiscious
During the late 90s, I used to choose AMD main processors over Intel to help the little guy, and because I was annoyed with the endless Intel Inside jingle everywhere. I wish them the best of luck against Invidia.