I sure hope so! I think renewable energy will be abundant. I think emissions will be dropping. I hope all the aggression worldwide will calm down and things will be more peaceful.
Just gotta make it through the 20s first đŹ
Iâm not very optimistic on aggression going down. Russia still have plenty of Runway for crazy and I believe will draw NATO boots on the ground before itâs over, and China hasnât even made their inevitable play for Taiwan yet. These will be the Defining conflicts of our generation and I think once Russia and China collapse weâll be looking at a much more peaceful and democratic world
I think the second half of this decade will be good. That sub had a cool concept, but it's r/collapse lite at this point
Seems ze kremlin's doomer op consists of multiple 5 year plans đ¤
Most likely, he will. His insanity is becoming more and more known, and the republican party and GOP's authoritarian theocratic bullshit is becoming mostly public knowledge.
Doesn't mean we shouldn't push to vote Democrat though. Let's move toward a brighter future, together :P
Even as a relative "doomer," I have a very hard time believing the gloom around a Trump victory. Dems have consistently overperformed in almost every election since Roe was overturned and I don't see any reason that won't continue. Biden definitely has issues but people are sick of/afraid of/or just dislike Trump way more.
Also, the more that Project 2025 gets put in daylight, I think that people sitting on the fence or who might have otherwise sat out the election, will get up and vote.
I'd like to share that optimism but current trends show that he's likely to lose and people either don't seem to care or believe that the GOP are and will do fascism despite Project 2025 and the SCOTUS rulings being laid bare. I'm feeling less hopeful for my country than I ever have before
I'm still gonna vote but things currently look very grim, especially since the US's brand of fascism will spread out and climate change is gonna start becoming impossible to ignore in the coming decades. Maybe by the 2040s or 50s things will be better but the next decade or so is gonna be ROUGH
Weâre in the 4th Turning right now. Everyone is losing faith in institutions. Once weâre over this hump the clock resets and itâll be good again for a few decades.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory
History repeats itself and is cyclical imo. The patterns are all there, but how long each phase takes depends on what happens during those events that no one can account for
Unlikely. Thereâs like a thousand different cyclical theories of history and sociology. They canât all be right. People are just cherry picking things to fit the pattern.
I'm not sure if history is so simple that it can be bucketed into these cycles. I'm not saying there's no truth to this theory whatsoever, but this kind of stuff does feel like flawed human pattern recognition a lot of the time.
The problem with theories like this is that they can't be falsified. Any scientific theory needs to be able to be tested and these can't be.
An example is the classic "empires last for about 250 years" (https://katv.com/news/armstrong-army-strong/the-average-empire-survives-for-250-years-is-america-at-deaths-door), which would be directly at odds with Strauss and Howe's Turning theory.
So are we about to hit the good decades soon, or is America about to fall apart with all the problems the end of an empire brings with it?
(for the record, I don't think either of the above is correct. History does not conform to cycles, we're just pattern-seeking animals)
Possible, but hard to know. It's easy to overfit and predict the past. It's a freshman error in my field (AI/ML) to build a model that perfectly matches a training set but fails on unseen data.
For example, one fantasy in the Strauss-Howe narrative was that Millennials would be more socially conservative, at least in the sense of rejecting casual sex, drug abuse, and self-indulgence. That didn't bear out; it's what their elders as well as social conservatives wanted, but it didn't happen. Gen Z is having less casual sex, which would be good in isolation, but they're also having a lot less normal, healthy sex because they're struggling to form relationships, so it's not a step forward.
Strauss and Howe predicted the kids would be alright; to be fair, this was refreshing compared to the undeserved hatred a lot of olds directed at Gen X and the general (inaccurate) feeling in the 1990s that every crop of kids was stupider and worse than the last. On the other hand, we Millennials were supposed to step up and, so far, we haven'tâlargely because eliminating Boomer conglomerate capitalism, now continued by the spoiled failsons of the Worst Generation, is not going to be achieved just by waiting for people to age and dieâdone so. We didn't even show up for Bernie in 2020, and look where we are in '24 (although Biden, in spite of cognitive decline which is still milder than Trump's, was better than I expected.) don't enjoy generation bashing of any kind, but we Millennials have been a disappointment compared to the expectations set by the Strauss-Howe theoryâwe've largely continued the GenX trend of underperformance (although it may not be our fault, just as it mostly was not theirs.)
I do think there's a better than 50/50 chance the 2030s are better than the '20s, but (a) that's not saying much and (b) it's certainly not guaranteed.
Casual sex and drug abuse declined rather sharply with the Millennials. There was a large drop in violent crime in America when Millennials came of age. The youth have low rates of voter participation, but this has always been the case.
It will get better, I firmly believe so. There's only so much insanity people can take before they go and vote for the people actually fixing this insanity, rather than.. you know. Project 2025... Trump... the GOP?
IF we can hang on to Democracy and basic liberties for the last half of the 2020s. If we descend into authoritarianism or civil war then things get bad.
I have no doubt that humanity will continue to improve. But getting people to have a more optimistic mindset? Good luck. We already live in an era of unprecedented prosperity and peace, yet so many people still think we're on the brink of collapse and/or WW3.
I swear to god, if I hear âBut Project 2025â one more time on Reddit to try and gloss over every optimistic trend or glimmer of hope I will go nuts.
Itâs becoming a trend even on this sub.
It might be JD Vance at this rate.
I also donât get why people are acting like Project 2025 is this one time thing for this election. Heritage Foundation isnât just going to throw it in the trash if they lose this election. It will be the roadmap they claim to have for any Republican president for ever. This is why I donât get the dooming about it. People are basically saying they either think no Republican will ever win a presidential election again or that they are going to keep dooming about Project 2025 forever.
Republicans just are never gonna win anymore elections for president. Unless they heavily change to actual winning postions that align with the usa voters
I don't think humanity will get through climate change scot-free, but I do believe that we will get through it regardless, and we will be able to recover afterwards
I mean Europe got thru the Black Death... but it sure sucked. OP saying 2030s will be a more optimistic decade, but its hard to see that being the case. I'm not total gloom, i think its possible humanity comes together over climate change. But its REAL UGLY what we are locked into even in the most optimistic cooperative scenarios. Even if we start crashing emissions today, it takes time to draw down carbon. So heating continues for a while even AFTER we hit net zero (or net negative). Shits going to be bad, there is no way around it. Our only choice is HOW bad.
 Optimists need to be at least SLIGHLY realistic even if you have faith in humanity's ability to pull together.Â
Yeah? And? I said humanity won't get through it fine. Getting through it regardless is a good outcome because of the whole "avoiding extinction" thing which gives us the rest of time to repair the damage caused.
r/strausshowe
I sure hope so! I think renewable energy will be abundant. I think emissions will be dropping. I hope all the aggression worldwide will calm down and things will be more peaceful. Just gotta make it through the 20s first đŹ
Iâm not very optimistic on aggression going down. Russia still have plenty of Runway for crazy and I believe will draw NATO boots on the ground before itâs over, and China hasnât even made their inevitable play for Taiwan yet. These will be the Defining conflicts of our generation and I think once Russia and China collapse weâll be looking at a much more peaceful and democratic world
Nah, world will still be aggressive.
Wrong sub buddy
Explain the ask an optimist post then.
I think the second half of this decade will be good. That sub had a cool concept, but it's r/collapse lite at this point Seems ze kremlin's doomer op consists of multiple 5 year plans đ¤
please let trump lose
Most likely, he will. His insanity is becoming more and more known, and the republican party and GOP's authoritarian theocratic bullshit is becoming mostly public knowledge. Doesn't mean we shouldn't push to vote Democrat though. Let's move toward a brighter future, together :P
Even as a relative "doomer," I have a very hard time believing the gloom around a Trump victory. Dems have consistently overperformed in almost every election since Roe was overturned and I don't see any reason that won't continue. Biden definitely has issues but people are sick of/afraid of/or just dislike Trump way more. Also, the more that Project 2025 gets put in daylight, I think that people sitting on the fence or who might have otherwise sat out the election, will get up and vote.
I'd like to share that optimism but current trends show that he's likely to lose and people either don't seem to care or believe that the GOP are and will do fascism despite Project 2025 and the SCOTUS rulings being laid bare. I'm feeling less hopeful for my country than I ever have before I'm still gonna vote but things currently look very grim, especially since the US's brand of fascism will spread out and climate change is gonna start becoming impossible to ignore in the coming decades. Maybe by the 2040s or 50s things will be better but the next decade or so is gonna be ROUGH
If youâre young and unregistered to vote, get registered now and go vote if you want a more positive future.
Weâre in the 4th Turning right now. Everyone is losing faith in institutions. Once weâre over this hump the clock resets and itâll be good again for a few decades. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory
I think the idea that you can map social phenomena to cycles is an example of apophenia, finding patterns where there are none.
Probably, but it sure is interesting.
History repeats itself and is cyclical imo. The patterns are all there, but how long each phase takes depends on what happens during those events that no one can account for
No bro is right there is definitely a pattern.
Unlikely. Thereâs like a thousand different cyclical theories of history and sociology. They canât all be right. People are just cherry picking things to fit the pattern.
Study history of US elections (which u havenât done)
No clue what youâre getting at
I'm not sure if history is so simple that it can be bucketed into these cycles. I'm not saying there's no truth to this theory whatsoever, but this kind of stuff does feel like flawed human pattern recognition a lot of the time.
The problem with theories like this is that they can't be falsified. Any scientific theory needs to be able to be tested and these can't be. An example is the classic "empires last for about 250 years" (https://katv.com/news/armstrong-army-strong/the-average-empire-survives-for-250-years-is-america-at-deaths-door), which would be directly at odds with Strauss and Howe's Turning theory. So are we about to hit the good decades soon, or is America about to fall apart with all the problems the end of an empire brings with it? (for the record, I don't think either of the above is correct. History does not conform to cycles, we're just pattern-seeking animals)
Possible, but hard to know. It's easy to overfit and predict the past. It's a freshman error in my field (AI/ML) to build a model that perfectly matches a training set but fails on unseen data. For example, one fantasy in the Strauss-Howe narrative was that Millennials would be more socially conservative, at least in the sense of rejecting casual sex, drug abuse, and self-indulgence. That didn't bear out; it's what their elders as well as social conservatives wanted, but it didn't happen. Gen Z is having less casual sex, which would be good in isolation, but they're also having a lot less normal, healthy sex because they're struggling to form relationships, so it's not a step forward. Strauss and Howe predicted the kids would be alright; to be fair, this was refreshing compared to the undeserved hatred a lot of olds directed at Gen X and the general (inaccurate) feeling in the 1990s that every crop of kids was stupider and worse than the last. On the other hand, we Millennials were supposed to step up and, so far, we haven'tâlargely because eliminating Boomer conglomerate capitalism, now continued by the spoiled failsons of the Worst Generation, is not going to be achieved just by waiting for people to age and dieâdone so. We didn't even show up for Bernie in 2020, and look where we are in '24 (although Biden, in spite of cognitive decline which is still milder than Trump's, was better than I expected.) don't enjoy generation bashing of any kind, but we Millennials have been a disappointment compared to the expectations set by the Strauss-Howe theoryâwe've largely continued the GenX trend of underperformance (although it may not be our fault, just as it mostly was not theirs.) I do think there's a better than 50/50 chance the 2030s are better than the '20s, but (a) that's not saying much and (b) it's certainly not guaranteed.
Casual sex and drug abuse declined rather sharply with the Millennials. There was a large drop in violent crime in America when Millennials came of age. The youth have low rates of voter participation, but this has always been the case.
You think itâs cuz of unleaded gasoline? /s
I hope so. With the way things are going in America right now Iâm not too optimistic.
It will get better, I firmly believe so. There's only so much insanity people can take before they go and vote for the people actually fixing this insanity, rather than.. you know. Project 2025... Trump... the GOP?
I hope youâre right
Project 2025 is not part of trumpâs manifesto If you wanna know trumps agenda go and look up Agenda47
Man that hopium must be real good.
I agree
Carpe diem
IF we can hang on to Democracy and basic liberties for the last half of the 2020s. If we descend into authoritarianism or civil war then things get bad.
We need just one solid, fully realized victory to get the momentum started. Every victory we've had since Obama has been a half-measure.
I think it is valid to postpone predictions about the 2030s until we get through 2024. We are at a pivot point; things could go either way.
I have no doubt that humanity will continue to improve. But getting people to have a more optimistic mindset? Good luck. We already live in an era of unprecedented prosperity and peace, yet so many people still think we're on the brink of collapse and/or WW3.
I swear to god, if I hear âBut Project 2025â one more time on Reddit to try and gloss over every optimistic trend or glimmer of hope I will go nuts. Itâs becoming a trend even on this sub.
Because we are.
Exhibit A.
I prefer facts over feelings.
đ
2028 will be amazing for getting a new usa world leader fresh face
It might be JD Vance at this rate. I also donât get why people are acting like Project 2025 is this one time thing for this election. Heritage Foundation isnât just going to throw it in the trash if they lose this election. It will be the roadmap they claim to have for any Republican president for ever. This is why I donât get the dooming about it. People are basically saying they either think no Republican will ever win a presidential election again or that they are going to keep dooming about Project 2025 forever.
Republicans just are never gonna win anymore elections for president. Unless they heavily change to actual winning postions that align with the usa voters
That is naive. Especially when theyâve shown the ability to win the Electoral College even when they lose the popular vote.
[the next decade] is my decade!
Well if we continue following century old history pretty much step for step it will start with a Great Depression
2030s will be horrible, 40s/50s are gonna incredible in my prediction
lol. I think it will be the darkest period in world history.
Lots of very interesting people on there. Youâd think folks would be more critical of data and scientific lol
No, Trump will win and civilisation will collapse no later than 2060
How does that contradict 2030s being more optimistic?
...and then you remember climate change...
I don't think humanity will get through climate change scot-free, but I do believe that we will get through it regardless, and we will be able to recover afterwards
I mean Europe got thru the Black Death... but it sure sucked. OP saying 2030s will be a more optimistic decade, but its hard to see that being the case. I'm not total gloom, i think its possible humanity comes together over climate change. But its REAL UGLY what we are locked into even in the most optimistic cooperative scenarios. Even if we start crashing emissions today, it takes time to draw down carbon. So heating continues for a while even AFTER we hit net zero (or net negative). Shits going to be bad, there is no way around it. Our only choice is HOW bad.  Optimists need to be at least SLIGHLY realistic even if you have faith in humanity's ability to pull together.Â
Yeah? And? I said humanity won't get through it fine. Getting through it regardless is a good outcome because of the whole "avoiding extinction" thing which gives us the rest of time to repair the damage caused.
Only because our standards will be so low.
If we have a planet by then
You're funny.