I think we should send both Pauley and Eguy so they can have consistent ABs and learn to have a better approach. Call up Batten too, I like his plate discipline more, even though he lacks power. One homer in garbage time does not justify a lack of production everywhere else
A few games ago we had 2on, no out via walks with the pitcher struggling with command and Eguy and Azocar had the worst approaches possible- they struck out in 6 pitches total. That was incredibly disappointing.
Azocar - .308/.341 with plus defense at all 3 OF positions
Rosario - .255 with .853 OPS and 145 OPS+ and plus defense at 3B
Yeah, NO.
Wade plays great D as well. Just let the kids play. NONE of them are the issue for the Padres this season.
.217 from Bogey. .218 from Kim, .233 from Tatis, and .686 OPS from Machado is the problem.
LET. THE. KIDS. PLAY.
Kim's batting is in line with his career numbers, and he was very unlikely to continue to get as lucky on batted balls this year. His issue has actually been defense, where his recorded errors have literally cost us multiple games.
No, no they are not. .245/.325/.383.708 career from 2021-2023 .210/.317/.377/.694 in 2024.
He LEADS the league in pop outs on balls in play this season. No bad luck when you pop out 23% of the time you put the ball in play in fair territory.
You're misreading what I'm saying. I'm not saying that he's been unlucky, I'm saying that last year he got very lucky. The funny part is that his Savant stats are better than last year, he's just stopped getting lucky.
A .014 drop in OPS is just not that much, either, particularly when you consider how much last year's lucky success boosts his career numbers.
Last season Kim had a .287 BABip while MLB average is .300. With his speed he should be at or above .300 BABip. He definitely was not lucky on balls in play last season. Last season he only popped out 15% on balls in play on, pretty much in line with MLB average. That is 8% less than this year. His problem this season is the massive increase in balls in play that are popped up. He has gone from MLB average to leading the league in that dubious stat.
He bulked up in the offseason, is trying to add more power and its not working. If you look at his launch angle this season vs last season you will see the issue. Its went from 13.6 degrees to 17.1 degrees and when he misses low on the ball now its creating these pop ups. Like Cronenworth he needs to go back to being the line drive hitter that occasionally runs into a fat pitch and not look for the HR on every at bat.
The difference between his career .708 OPS and a .694 OPS is big. Just go look at how many SS had an OPS under .700 last season and have a starting job this season. The answer is 4. Javier Baez, Time Anderson, Ezequiel Tovar, and Anthony Volpe. .700 is the dividing line between everyday player and a utility player. The difference between his .749 OPS last season and his .694 before yesterday's game is incredibly huge. That potential and his defense is why he is still in the lineup today. He is at .688 today.
>Last season Kim had a .287 BABip while MLB average is .300. With his speed he should be at or above .300 BABip.
Sure, he's just not a good batter.
When I say that he got lucky, I don't mean relative to other players in the league; I meant relative to what his specific balls-in-play should have accomplished. I mean that his xSLG was .359 and xwOBA was .313, but his actual SLG was .398 and his wOBA was .330. The difference between expected slugging and actual slugging alone would have put his OPS last year just one point above his '22 result. This year, his expected and actual numbers are much closer together, meaning he's getting less lucky.
It's not hard to imagine him making an adjustment to get back to the 700 line, so I'm not super interested in litigating that; he's close enough that the sample size is up in the air. He did worse in August-September last year than he's done so far in a similar sample size this year.
Can you explain simply what they mean by EXPECTED hitting stats? I mean SPECIFICALLY explain, not the general idea of what they are. If not, don't use them. Tom Tango said they are not statistically relevant without 1500 PA of data, roughly 3 seasons, so I will go with his assessment.
Kim did worse at WHAT in August and September? In August 2023 he had a .752 OPS in 126 PA. This season he has 166 PA and a .688 OPS. No where close to each other.
>Kim did worse at WHAT in August and September?
There's a reason I said "August-September" and not "August and September". The two months averaged were significantly worse (.638) than his less than two months at the plate this year in significantly more PA.
I could easily see Kim getting back to .700 and pretty quickly. You made a point saying how much he had dropped over the course of this conversation, and so it's entirely possible for him to bounce back to his career average. I think we agree that Kim is not having another year like last year; I'm just using the expected statistics to make the case that he was getting lucky and overperformed his actual skill.
> I mean SPECIFICALLY explain, not the general idea of what they are.
They're not complicated enough to talk about them like something arcane. xBA compares the quality of the batted ball (launch angle and velocity, with sprint speed as a modifier for weakly hit balls, which is important for HSK of course) with balls matching those parameters, and assigns it a likelihood of being a hit based on how many of those matching balls were themselves hits. xSLG does the same thing, but for slugging percentage on those balls, and same thing again for the wOBAs.
It's not a predictive stat, but it gives you an idea of the overall quality of contact. HSK had a much better year than we'd expect based on those numbers last year, and so I expected him to decline this year.
Shildt seems to love subbing Profar off for Azocar in the sixth or seventh inning, though. Not really sure what that’s all about, but he has done it fairly regularly.
im a lurker twins fan who watched this guy last season
if he plays the same, solano is a clutch hitter. he will deliver the game tying rbi double but can disappear outside of clutch situations.
I hated this dude those years he faced us playing with the Giants, guy was always just such a pesky and professional hitter. I’m hoping that bodes well for his time with us, but haven’t watched him much in recent years. I’m optimistic about it, he’s no slugger but I think we have more power incoming from Nando, Manny and to a lesser extent, Xander & Campy.
to be honest he doesn't have an obvious role anywhere else unless he learns how to play LF, and even then I don't know since HBJ and Jakob Marsee are going to get their shot eventually and are already competent OFers.
I think they really like Pauley and wanted him to show something special and earn a spot somehow but he obviously needs more time.
Pauly definitely has talent hitting a homerun of an all star closer and a Cy Young caliber pitcher the talent is their. He needs more time in the farm. For himbto give a playing role in the future. I don't want a CJ Abrams situation with him.
CJ Abrams was a unique situation, Seidler badly wanted a superstar and Abrams was needed as a trade piece to get one. Abrams wasn't a guy that they gave up on or anything. That said there isn't going to be a spot for everyone.
I think out of Pauley, Marsee and Homer Bush Jr we're going to have a really good player in the OF, one may turn into a 4th OF, and the other one probably gets traded.
I am not trying to be a downer but man this whole season is disappointing at a quicker pace than I thought. I didn't really expect a playoff team at the beginning of the season but to read that Donovan Solano is going to be our primary DH makes me so extremely disappointed in our trajectory.
maybe that's your problem, your expectations. We're not a great team. And Yordan Alvarezes don't grow on trees, if they did everyone would have someone like him. People make themselves miserable because they constantly look at us for what we don't have.
Just because this isn't a great team doesn't mean we can't be a decent team. The idea is to be a wild card team that continues to improve and wreak havoc once we get to the playoffs. Solano is a very solid player and is more than capable of being a professional hitter.
It's like the same thing we went through with Profar, "we don't want him, we need this guy or that guy, Profar sucks." Let's just see how it works out.
Maybe your problem is assuming I even have one. It’s pretty arrogant to tell people what their problems are isn’t it?
It’s a sign of where we are. As you say we aren’t a great team, or even a particularly good one. Who we are starting at DH is a very strong sign of that. Whether I have a problem with that is another thing altogether.
LFG. I do hope that wade sticks around though, he gives good effort and comes up clutch, can’t really explain it
fax, send eguy or azocar down (especially since profar has established himself as more than a platoon guy)
Azocar is valuable as a defensive replacement and pinch runner. He also can platoon with Merrill and is hitting .308 this season despite limited AB’s.
Azocar is the 4th OF too, no way he gets sent down
Yeah, if anything Eguy and Wade need to get sent down and an additional OF bench bat needs to be up
Padres need to bring up Batten to be DH, and potential 3B when Manny needs it.
Eguy hits lefties well. Azocar is needed in the OF. Pauley is the obvious odd man out in my opinion.
I think we should send both Pauley and Eguy so they can have consistent ABs and learn to have a better approach. Call up Batten too, I like his plate discipline more, even though he lacks power. One homer in garbage time does not justify a lack of production everywhere else
A few games ago we had 2on, no out via walks with the pitcher struggling with command and Eguy and Azocar had the worst approaches possible- they struck out in 6 pitches total. That was incredibly disappointing.
Truth.
Azocar - .308/.341 with plus defense at all 3 OF positions Rosario - .255 with .853 OPS and 145 OPS+ and plus defense at 3B Yeah, NO. Wade plays great D as well. Just let the kids play. NONE of them are the issue for the Padres this season. .217 from Bogey. .218 from Kim, .233 from Tatis, and .686 OPS from Machado is the problem. LET. THE. KIDS. PLAY.
fair enough, if it ain’t broken don’t fix it. I’d like to see Pauley get more playing time myself but you’re absolutely right these are great numbers
Kim's batting is in line with his career numbers, and he was very unlikely to continue to get as lucky on batted balls this year. His issue has actually been defense, where his recorded errors have literally cost us multiple games.
No, no they are not. .245/.325/.383.708 career from 2021-2023 .210/.317/.377/.694 in 2024. He LEADS the league in pop outs on balls in play this season. No bad luck when you pop out 23% of the time you put the ball in play in fair territory.
You're misreading what I'm saying. I'm not saying that he's been unlucky, I'm saying that last year he got very lucky. The funny part is that his Savant stats are better than last year, he's just stopped getting lucky. A .014 drop in OPS is just not that much, either, particularly when you consider how much last year's lucky success boosts his career numbers.
Last season Kim had a .287 BABip while MLB average is .300. With his speed he should be at or above .300 BABip. He definitely was not lucky on balls in play last season. Last season he only popped out 15% on balls in play on, pretty much in line with MLB average. That is 8% less than this year. His problem this season is the massive increase in balls in play that are popped up. He has gone from MLB average to leading the league in that dubious stat. He bulked up in the offseason, is trying to add more power and its not working. If you look at his launch angle this season vs last season you will see the issue. Its went from 13.6 degrees to 17.1 degrees and when he misses low on the ball now its creating these pop ups. Like Cronenworth he needs to go back to being the line drive hitter that occasionally runs into a fat pitch and not look for the HR on every at bat. The difference between his career .708 OPS and a .694 OPS is big. Just go look at how many SS had an OPS under .700 last season and have a starting job this season. The answer is 4. Javier Baez, Time Anderson, Ezequiel Tovar, and Anthony Volpe. .700 is the dividing line between everyday player and a utility player. The difference between his .749 OPS last season and his .694 before yesterday's game is incredibly huge. That potential and his defense is why he is still in the lineup today. He is at .688 today.
>Last season Kim had a .287 BABip while MLB average is .300. With his speed he should be at or above .300 BABip. Sure, he's just not a good batter. When I say that he got lucky, I don't mean relative to other players in the league; I meant relative to what his specific balls-in-play should have accomplished. I mean that his xSLG was .359 and xwOBA was .313, but his actual SLG was .398 and his wOBA was .330. The difference between expected slugging and actual slugging alone would have put his OPS last year just one point above his '22 result. This year, his expected and actual numbers are much closer together, meaning he's getting less lucky. It's not hard to imagine him making an adjustment to get back to the 700 line, so I'm not super interested in litigating that; he's close enough that the sample size is up in the air. He did worse in August-September last year than he's done so far in a similar sample size this year.
Can you explain simply what they mean by EXPECTED hitting stats? I mean SPECIFICALLY explain, not the general idea of what they are. If not, don't use them. Tom Tango said they are not statistically relevant without 1500 PA of data, roughly 3 seasons, so I will go with his assessment. Kim did worse at WHAT in August and September? In August 2023 he had a .752 OPS in 126 PA. This season he has 166 PA and a .688 OPS. No where close to each other.
>Kim did worse at WHAT in August and September? There's a reason I said "August-September" and not "August and September". The two months averaged were significantly worse (.638) than his less than two months at the plate this year in significantly more PA. I could easily see Kim getting back to .700 and pretty quickly. You made a point saying how much he had dropped over the course of this conversation, and so it's entirely possible for him to bounce back to his career average. I think we agree that Kim is not having another year like last year; I'm just using the expected statistics to make the case that he was getting lucky and overperformed his actual skill. > I mean SPECIFICALLY explain, not the general idea of what they are. They're not complicated enough to talk about them like something arcane. xBA compares the quality of the batted ball (launch angle and velocity, with sprint speed as a modifier for weakly hit balls, which is important for HSK of course) with balls matching those parameters, and assigns it a likelihood of being a hit based on how many of those matching balls were themselves hits. xSLG does the same thing, but for slugging percentage on those balls, and same thing again for the wOBAs. It's not a predictive stat, but it gives you an idea of the overall quality of contact. HSK had a much better year than we'd expect based on those numbers last year, and so I expected him to decline this year.
Shildt seems to love subbing Profar off for Azocar in the sixth or seventh inning, though. Not really sure what that’s all about, but he has done it fairly regularly.
Profar is slower in the outfield. It was the problem he had playing in Coors. Sugar has more speed defensively
and it has worked lol. Like don't change a thing with respect to Profar
Its called a defensive replacement.
Profar is a pretty terrible defender.
Its about defense.
im a lurker twins fan who watched this guy last season if he plays the same, solano is a clutch hitter. he will deliver the game tying rbi double but can disappear outside of clutch situations.
Interesting. Our boys have a tendency to disappear in clutch situations so that may even out nicely
Hahahaha
lol, Arraez says hi
[SDUT](https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/story/2024-05-02/padres-jurickson-profar-manny-machado-fernando-tatis-xander-bogaerts)
Padres using a veteran as their DH, what could go wrong........................
Better than having a 23 year old as a DH
Did you watch Padres games the first half of last year? I would beg to differ.
Verge
Can someone convert that to “I N C H E S” for me?
also, damn we up late asf lmao @sdoki @pineapplefriedriceu
midterms be fucking me lmfao
5am over here
Wonder if they’re still gonna do it now that we got Arraez..
I hated this dude those years he faced us playing with the Giants, guy was always just such a pesky and professional hitter. I’m hoping that bodes well for his time with us, but haven’t watched him much in recent years. I’m optimistic about it, he’s no slugger but I think we have more power incoming from Nando, Manny and to a lesser extent, Xander & Campy.
Is he raking in the minors?
.306 average and .853 OPS. I'd say he is probably ready.
El Paso stats don't mean a whole lot, but at least he wasn't floundering.
True, but at least in Solano’s case he already has a pretty good track record of hitting in the bigs
Did this post age like milk?
Inches
He was in our minor league system?
Sike
Please Pauley is starting to look like a AAAA type of player 😭😭
Pauley needs ABs daily AND in the field. No one that young should be a every day DH
to be honest he doesn't have an obvious role anywhere else unless he learns how to play LF, and even then I don't know since HBJ and Jakob Marsee are going to get their shot eventually and are already competent OFers. I think they really like Pauley and wanted him to show something special and earn a spot somehow but he obviously needs more time.
Pauly definitely has talent hitting a homerun of an all star closer and a Cy Young caliber pitcher the talent is their. He needs more time in the farm. For himbto give a playing role in the future. I don't want a CJ Abrams situation with him.
CJ Abrams was a unique situation, Seidler badly wanted a superstar and Abrams was needed as a trade piece to get one. Abrams wasn't a guy that they gave up on or anything. That said there isn't going to be a spot for everyone. I think out of Pauley, Marsee and Homer Bush Jr we're going to have a really good player in the OF, one may turn into a 4th OF, and the other one probably gets traded.
Might be easier to continue letting him cook in the minors and flip him for good pitching later down the line
Call up Tirso!
This would be outstanding. Send Paulette down and let him get some at bats
Please do, and thank you
I am not trying to be a downer but man this whole season is disappointing at a quicker pace than I thought. I didn't really expect a playoff team at the beginning of the season but to read that Donovan Solano is going to be our primary DH makes me so extremely disappointed in our trajectory.
Solano is a solid mlb hitter. He prob won’t wow anyone but it’s an upgrade over what they have right now.
On great teams the DH is an absolute slugger. They use the position to house someone whose offense is so good they don’t need their D.
maybe that's your problem, your expectations. We're not a great team. And Yordan Alvarezes don't grow on trees, if they did everyone would have someone like him. People make themselves miserable because they constantly look at us for what we don't have. Just because this isn't a great team doesn't mean we can't be a decent team. The idea is to be a wild card team that continues to improve and wreak havoc once we get to the playoffs. Solano is a very solid player and is more than capable of being a professional hitter. It's like the same thing we went through with Profar, "we don't want him, we need this guy or that guy, Profar sucks." Let's just see how it works out.
Maybe your problem is assuming I even have one. It’s pretty arrogant to tell people what their problems are isn’t it? It’s a sign of where we are. As you say we aren’t a great team, or even a particularly good one. Who we are starting at DH is a very strong sign of that. Whether I have a problem with that is another thing altogether.
… and on the Padres we’re lucky to get .700 OPS.
Just need this guy to get solid singles with runners in scoring position
I’m stoked.
Padres need to bring up Batten to be DH, and potential 3B when Manny needs it.