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It will certainly help, will it make it truly turn blue would be surprising but with what happened in Ohio and even recently with the Alabama state house it should make the Republicans nervous.
The midwest states that carried Trump to his original victory have shown serious fatigue with their Republican state governments. The result was Republicans getting shut out of Michigan after running it for a generation, and Wisconsin voters desperately trying to eject their entrenched Republican majority via gerrymander reform, and Pennsylvania continuing to vote for Dems statewide in every election since '16. Florida is not immune to the same thing.
What it does have going for it, from the GOP's point of view, is that people who have moved there in recent years were self-selected in a way that was favorable to them. (Obsessed with low taxes, in favor of the gay-lib-owning policies, not believing in climate change which will likely ruin the state, etc.)
In 2020 they performed almost 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole. That is likely to lessen with this abortion initiative on the ballot. If Biden wins Florida, it's likely he's already won the election easily, but it would still be a huge symbolic victory. It could **also** put Rick Scott's seat up for grabs. I think that seat is way more in play than people give it credit for, especially considering that Scott, personally, is 0% likeable, as much as he seems good at winning elections in Florida.
It really is the self selecting movement, both in and out of the state. No one not a Republican and bigot is going to want to move to Florida. My wife works in higher education, her parents retired to Florida a few years back and they keep sending my wife job listings for Florida universities. The problem is my wife and I refuse to move to Florida due to academic freedom issues with the aforementioned universities and the reason those jobs are open is because of politics designed to drive those people out.
> My wife works in higher education, her parents retired to Florida a few years back and they keep sending my wife job listings for Florida universities. The problem is my wife and I refuse to move to Florida due to academic freedom issues with the aforementioned universities and the reason those jobs are open is because of politics designed to drive those people out.
Anecdotal, but from my personal experience, this is very true from all the people I know who work in education and academia. People seem much more reluctant to move there for employment in those fields than, say, ten years ago. That will definitely help the partisans cement support, but it's going to cause more systemic issues down the line.
The cities are still blue :)
And many Florida natives are more liberal and centrist. That stupid trans and crt scare got a lot of people active and convinced a lot of centrists.
Which is why it's perfect for retirees. The old folks move to Florida, and the people who retire here don't have to worry about pregnancy because they are most likely past the point of getting pregnant. That is unless the older male retiree hooks up with someone who is fertile. If it doesn't impact them, they probably won't care.
There is no reason not to try. We are not in such dire straits we need to invest every cent and every campaign resource into six battleground states. We have to expand the battleground and FL and especially TX are obvious places to do it.
TX leads the nation in voter apathy.
I don't know why. Perhaps due to gerrymandering, many feel it is a waste of time to vote, but that does not impact the national elections and Senate.
Closing voting locations, reducing early voting days and hours, and reducing the number of voting machines which can result in long lines....all can contribute to voter apathy.
The problem is, we may have seen the last free US election in 2020.
If people are too apathetic to fight to save democracy, then they will receive an authoritarian fascist regime.
Get ready to be disappointed, even as dislikable as Cruz is. Allred is not an angel, either. I get the feeling a lot of conservatives may turn liberal out of fear, the passion and anger the Left has on its side, and the whole winning cohesive unit factor. My opinion
Beto could have beaten Cruz..but didn't. He even carried Tarrant County but still lost enough in rural areas.
What do you know about Allred? He's a former NFL player...seems pretty smart.
Bro, I’m not a fan of Allred. He played linebacker for the Titans and absolutely sucked. Only 40 something tackles in 4 years. However I respect him as a He doesn’t seem that smart and just repeats talking points most lefties do. Although idk how intelligent he is. I’m sure he’s smart enough. Obama who I supported, is a big reason why I and many latinos are switching. Not to mention I’m a veteran. He’s just like Beto who was a joke to me. I’m a Conservative personally. Although I’m a not the biggest fan of Cruz, nor very many politicians for that matter. Too many people kiss their ass, and seem to idolize them.
However, If I was a Dem. I would cut out the smarminess, the ugliness, the bad faith arguments and anger. I would find a Veteran like Dem Governor Wes Moore from Maryland. He’s not arrogant, angry, smarmy, or unreasonable. He seems to really love his country regardless of its past mistakes. For me, I want a candidate who truly LOVES their country, and is willing to shed blood for it. I want a legitimate warrior and fighter as a leader who’s willing to take a bullet for his nation. You feel me?
You are a veteran. Do you support Trump? You already know his sick comments on vets. What exactly did Obama do to make you and other Latino's switch? Do you support a woman's right to choose? Do you think the state has a right to tell a woman she can't have an abortion? Do you support school vouchers, which are nothing more than a subsidy for the wealthy? Do you believe that immigrants coming to the US seeking asylum have a right to have their case heard in a court of law and a judge determine their claim? Do you believe that one should have a license and training in order to own a gun? Do you think that a thorough background check should be done before you can purchase a gun? Have you looked at Allred's positions on various topics? Finally.....what has Ted Cruz done?
Before I answer, I have to ask. Are you asking me because you are asking in good faith, or are you looking argument? Are you asking because you’re generally curious and open to my opinion, or are you trying to just impose your own on me. If so, then I don’t think it would be productive, or a good use of my time to answer, then be lectured or ranted at for the beliefs I hold true to, and because it l love my state and country with all my heart. You feel me, big dawg?
For one of my data classes I took, I dumped historic election data on a map by County for the last few Presidential elections. I made a heat map of the swing differences from election to election. Most Counties didn't swing that hard in 2020, save one exception.
The border Texas Counties had wild swings going deeper red. Like 20-30% swings. The border issue is going to be interesting. Because even though it's easy for Republicans to harp on it, the fact they killed the bill to fix anything just for Trump would have me livid if I was being directly affected and lived in those Counties, which is a little different than watching fox news up North. Looking forward to seeing the result this election just because of that.
Many in Eagle Pass denounced Abbott's razor wire and national guard facility being built nearby.
They do not see 'masses invading.' They see men, women, and their children seeking asylum. They are not armed or hiding drugs.
Not sure why you are arguing data:
Starr county: 19% Trump to 47% - 28% swing
Maverick County: 21% Trump to 45% - 24% swing
Jim Hogg County: 20% to 41% - 21% swing
Just a few examples. These are blue counties, but a huge part of their voterbase changed their mind in 2020. Most Counties all through out the country went the opposite direction a couple percentage points. Those blue border counties swung hard. Either dems didn't show up, moved, or changed their mind for Trump. Those are insane numbers from 2016 when they voted for Clinton in a landslide to almost Trump winning those areas. This is the only area I saw crazy numbers.
What's your explanation then? By the way other Counties flipped hard, like Kenedy and zapata. 20 % swings. Biden lost those where Clinton won big.
Am not disagreeing. Many have flipped to Trump.
I have been to Eagle Pass many times back when I worked for a work wear manufacturer. Each day hundreds walked across the bridge to work in the US then at the end of the work day they walked back. I saw the river. Nobody was in it trying to cross...but that was years ago. Obama was president. Things change.
Am in TX. Local stations showed folks in Eagle Pass supporting the immigrants.....but there were many ' white men' that were not and glad Abbott put up the razor wire.
Florida has shown zero indication of what you have talked about.
What Democrat has won a statewide office in Florida since 2016?
Trump won by a bigger margin in 2020, and so did DeSantis in 2022. Rubio won in 2022 by a lot as well. The legislation is still far right wing and passing their hard right agenda just like always.
Rick Scott is not losing his seat.
Things never change until they change. Not saying major movement in Florida is likely but to rule it out is foolish.
[Scott is up three points in the polls.](https://thehill.com/homenews/4508253-scott-narrowly-leads-mucarsel-powell-in-florida-senate-race-poll/) He is facing a campaign. He produced a helpful "use this to campaign against me" memo for the RNC in 2022 recommending brutally unpopular policies - voters will only become more aware of that as the year goes on.
DeSantis won that big victory in '22 and is now unpopular in Florida, and has 60% disapproval among independents (who usually lean Republican). That is fairly strong evidence of some movement.
> Not saying major movement in Florida is likely but to rule it out is foolish.
Not ruling it out, just saying there is zero indication of any change to date.
>Scott is up three points in the polls.
Polls are meaningless 7 months out from the election. Example: August 2022 had Val Demmings under 3 points from Rubio, only to get blown out by 16% in the election.
Weird, whenever I predict a 9 point Biden victory and tell people this they don't buy it. :v
You're not wrong, though. People will tend to say that close polls show a race is "up for grabs," even early in a campaign, but I don't really agree with that. Rubio's 16% is a stronger data point.
Like, I don't know what to tell you, man. Scott is obviously a heavy favorite. There are still like 25 other seats I'd rather be defending than his. And the abortion issue is not going to be helping him, especially ow that it's directly on the ballot.
My perspective that Scott is in danger reflects my personal belief that this election will be more heavily Democratic than 2022, which most people are not yet even imagining is possible (because of polls!)
> Things never change until they change
The only thing changing about Florida is that it's a conservative retirement home.
As brain drain continues Florida will sink deeper... But the kids born and raised there have an opportunity for a better future elsewhere.
**Invest in education**
I am not in Florida, but from left-leaning Floridians I hear dismay that there is no organized Democratic party, no real leadership. Like, in the last governor's race they ran a former Republican instead of an actual Democrat.
I don't know how you go from 'we have no ground game' to 'we actually have robust networks of activists and supporters providing funding for a solid slate of candidates,' but I hope there are people in Florida working toward that.
> I hear dismay that there is no organized Democratic party, no real leadership.
Because the Dems view it as a lost cause. It would take a substantial amount of time and resources to try and get anything to flip, so they focus resources where they have more leverage.
>Like, in the last governor's race they ran a former Republican instead of an actual Democrat.
Yes, that was Charlie Crist, who actually ran as a Democrat twice. First time in 2014 against Rick Scott and lost. And it was more because the Dems didn't have anyone in the talent pool, and because DeSantis was such a powerhouse it was going to be useless anyway. The only other strong candidate was the state ag commissioner that won by like 20 votes.
>in the last governor's race they ran a former Republican instead of an actual Democrat.
We have this problem in Louisiana as well. The local Democrat political machine has been totally compromised.
How much of Louisiana Democrats at-large, not the fringe segment, are in sync with the national platform? For example, are Louisiana Democrats supportive of transgender individual in women's sports? If not I can imagine why national Democrat machine may abandon them; don't look like hypocrites and it produces more wins in competitive seats.
Individual Democratic members of government are generally fine. Sure, governor Edwards was pro-life, but he was a hell of a lot better than the alternative and he held the Republican legislative agenda at bay. Now we've got a MAGA trifecta running the state and we're truly fucked.
As a clear example of how compromised the state-level party is, here in New Orleans they ran a nepotistic former Republican with no experience against a popular Democratic incumbent. They're actively trying to remove successful progressives from government.
The DNC has its own problems at the national level, but that's an entirely separate discussion and it has little to do with the clusterfuck we're stuck with here. Abandoning the south on account of a no true scotsman fallacy is terrible electoral strategy anyway.
I agree completely. I think it's highly unlikely Trump takes the rust belt in any fashion given how current trends have been there, especially looking at how the MIGOP is fucked with Karamo and funding.
If Florida did end up going blue, there's very little chance that the rust belt wouldn't as well. In a simulation that would be a very far off edge case
The fact that the 6 week ban (i.e practically total ban in effect) is going to be the law by then make it even more likely that the abortion referendum will be in favor of the pro-choice side and get the 60% it needs. It’s a high threshold but given what is the alternative, i.e. radical policy like a 6 week ban, it will be easy to drive turnout and even “kinda pro-choice but in favor of first trimester or 15 week bans” will vote heavily for the pro-choice side.
Like put it this way, Republicans won’t have the ability to go “well the yes side goes too far” in their campaign when the law in place is a de facto total abortion ban.
Keep in mind too that the 6 week ban was super unpopular when it was being discussed a year ago, like 35-65 approve to disapprove. Even a majority of Republicans weren’t in favor of it. And that was just when it wasn’t law then like it will be in 30 days.
This is all secondary but also given FL is a high floor state for Democrats in Presidential years, it’ll help Biden and whoever is running against Scott and flip downballot races. Enough to flip the state blue? Who knows. But it'll help.
I’m with you but I’m thinking this might be a good way to get Trump to spend his campaign cash in Florida and over commit and then hopefully spend less in more important states
> Keep in mind too that the 6 week ban was super unpopular when it was being discussed a year ago, like 35-65 approve to disapprove.
I don't remember where I heard this, but IIRC, when you explain what a 6 week ban really is (the fact that at 6 weeks, few women even know that they're pregnant, yet), the approval rating of the bans drops even further. Basically, very few people support full bans, just some people think that a 6 week ban means giving women 6 weeks to make a decision. We could use some better education in our country to fix this problem.
Maybe? It's funny, in a way, Republicans should be embracing amendments that protect abortion. They can tell pro-lifers they did their best, and now that the issue is off the table, centrists have nothing to fear from them again.
But Republicans will probably campaign against the ratification of the amendment like the short sighted dimwits they are, so it really depends on how many Republicans and center-right independents are willing to vote for the amendment, and still vote for the person telling them not to vote for the amendment. In many states, I would say it probably wouldn't happen that often. But in Florida? Man, they have a history of cognitive dissonance.
It'll certainly help Democrats to some degree. I just don't know if it'll help to the degree that it'll push Florida into blue.
The "old-school" Machiavellian arm of the GOP would indeed be trying that strategy -- the problem is that the beast that they fed through Fox, Rush Limbaugh, right-wing blogs, AM radio, etc. has now started to get elected themselves, and they're True Believers in the cause. Frankenstein's Monster has slowly been turning on its creator, and the big-money old-school Republicans are stuck with the monster they've spent the last 40 years nurturing.
Too bad that they're at least somewhat likely to take the rest of the country with them as part of their downfall.
I think the problem is people equating pro-choice referendums and pro-choice politicians. By that, I mean that there is a difference between voting for reproductive rights on the ballot, and voting for candidates that support reproductive rights. I'm not convinced that Republicans that want reproductive health want it to the point that they would actually vote for a Democrat. I think the ones that would be willing to cross over for something like that are a vanishingly small percentage.
I would think the answer to OP's question is "likely no" -- reproductive rights being a line-item on the ballot would make it *less* likely that Florida would turn blue. Anyone that feels strongly about freedom of reproductive health and they can vote on it means they don't have to hold their nose and vote for a Democrat.
Also, one thing to note is that other abortion ballot initiatives have passed with less than 60% supporting -- so the split here is concerning.
>there is a difference between voting for reproductive rights on the ballot, and voting for candidates that support reproductive rights. I'm not convinced that Republicans that want reproductive health want it to the point that they would actually vote for a Democrat.
That is the sticking point, yes.
Republicans shouldn't embrace abortion protections, but the more savvy ones should not actually try to enact bans on abortion, because it removes a major motivator for their base. SCOTUS overturning Roe v Wade will be a big blow to a lot of Republicans because now it's one less thing to campaign on.
The base would still notice a conspicuous silence/inaction on the issue, and be more likely to vote for candidates who were loudly and fiercely fighting for the cause. Unless you're proposing that Republican politicians should engage in pro-life activism that they either just hope fails or attempt to counter with secret pro-choice activism that they just hope doesn't get caught, that seems like a losing proposition.
>Unless you're proposing that Republican politicians should engage in pro-life activism that they either just hope fails or attempt to counter with secret pro-choice activism that they just hope doesn't get caught, that seems like a losing proposition.
They do it with populism all the time. It's how we end up with the "leopards eating people's faces party" meme.
It will be a driver towards that, if anything. Coupled with recreational marijuana we could see something signifigant (florida just going back to being a swing state). I don't have much faith in the result to come but I'll be damned if it doesnt give me a little extra fire. Just to nitpick add: Abortion is not a winning issue for democrats - bodily autonomy free of government is.
The most likely outcome is that a bunch of people vote for Trump while also voting to protect abortion access. It’s very plausible that Trump wins the state and the abortion protection amendment passes as well.
This is exactly what will happen, imo.
A lot of people assume that voter support for specific, individual issues translates to particular candidates or parties, and while that's true for many voters a lot of voters simply don't think that way.
We actually have a very recent natural experiment from florida on this.
In 2020, there was a $15 minimum wage ballot measure in Florida. A lot of pundits thought that having the minimum wage measure would help democrats--republicans were ACTIVELY opposing it, after all.
The $15 minimum wage measure passed with a HUGE margin (like over 70% approval) but trump actually increased his margin of victory from 2016 (in other words, he won florida by a bigger margin in 2020 than he did in 2016).
I think if anything, having the measure on the ballot might hurt democrats. If you're a mostly-centrist or right-leaning voter who ALSO cares about abortion, this allows you to protect abortion in your state without having to vote for democrats. Like, imagine you support trump but your hesitant to vote for him because of the abortion issue--this kind of gives you an "out."
Everyone saying Florida will turn blue has not been to Florida.
It’s as red as it can be. The state population has grown significantly in recent years and largely from people who went to Florida because it’s a red state.
When voters get to vote on abortion access directly, such as what is on the ballot this fall, they will support it. But they’ll also vote for Republican candidates on the same ballot who will restrict abortion because tax cuts and wokeness.
So expect both the amendments to pass, and for Trump to win the state.
Exactly, I immediately saw this as a move to disentangle the issue from the rest of the ballot. If it is possible to get on the ballot in time, I'd expect this to happen in some other states. Florida is likely to go red either way, so I think this would be a rare win for their citizens on both sides.
Yep. We moved out of Florida last year after living there for 20 years largely for political reasons. And we know many others who have done the same. Even my grandparents who moved there to retire are moving back up north because of it. Florida is a *hard* red state. And more conservatives coming in and liberals moving out is only going to strengthen that. That’s not even taking into account the Latino community in Florida that is shifting further and further right. The FL Democratic Party is a joke, practically non existent, and has no real plan.
Florida is a lost cause. I will celebrate the day it’s finally swallowed up by the ocean.
Yup; Obama won it at 50.1% to 49.13% for Romney, but it was 47.8 to 51.2% for Trump in 2020. And it has only become more Red since then.
I agree they will cross vote. Ballot wins, Trump wins. All things being equal as of today. A Trump criminal conviction between now and then could be enough to nudge it Blue, though.
However, challenging Trump in Florida and spending more money there could help the Florida Dems (who need it).
Is it really that diverse, or is it mostly white retirees and Cubans? Cubans tend to vote conservative economically and many are racist (I'm related to some of them myself). The Cubans I know are huge Trumpsters, sadly.
I now live in northern California, a truly diverse place with Asians, Africans (my neighborhood is Eritrean), Philippinos, and Latinos. My decades in Florida were not nearly so diverse.
They all tend to vote right wing because they had the money to move and fled far left governments in their home countries. Most of them own the $800,000 beachfront condos.
They’re low information voters assuming they even gained citizenship. They think Biden is a communist when by that definition, he’s center right.
Which states? Thus far only a few states have directly voted on it.
Ohio, Kansas, Kentucky, Vermont, and Michigan have all voted on protecting abortion access. The ones that failed were specifically designed to say the constitution does NOT guarantee access, such as Kentucky and Kansas.
Wisconsin elected a Supreme Court justice who openly campaigned on protecting abortion access.
Other states have it on the ballot this November.
I'm going to laugh so hard if Florida turns blue because of this.
Personally, I give Florida a 40% chance of going blue based on our current climate. This is a lot higher than I originally had before this ruling (a 10% chance).
Not only will abortion bring a higher turnout to the polls (which will favor Biden), it will also make the Republicans have to spend a lot more money on these races. Money that the Republicans *do not have*, but Democrats do.
As long as the economy continues to do well, and Trump continues to have legal issues, Biden's chances will keep increasing.
It’s not going to happen; the only people that will even know this is a ballot measure heading into Election Day were already going to vote one way or another as it is, and the people that were going to vote based on abortion access were always going to vote blue.
They’d probably run up the score far more were this a ballot measure on an off-year; as things stand, I predict it will pass, but also serve as a pressure release valve allowing people of all political stripes to vote their opinion on this specific issue, abortion, while also voting how they traditionally do across the ballot otherwise.
> I predict it will pass, but also serve as a pressure release valve allowing people of all political stripes to vote their opinion on this specific issue, abortion, while also voting how they traditionally do across the ballot otherwise.
That's an interesting theory. I think the logic is pretty sound, but I can't think of any similar kind of ballot measure that worked in that way. Maybe prop 8 in CA in 2008?
The difference is how well funded the pro-choice and pro-marijuana legalization campaigns are. I think the pro-marijuana campaign has over $40 million raised so far and the pro-choice campaign has around $20 million raised. That was before they got on the ballot.
The Democrats don’t really need Florida for anything and they’re flush with cash. So if the posturing draws GOP money into Florida, that’s a plus for Democrats. If the Republicans have to spend money to defend Scott that’s less they’re spending in Ohio and Montana to flip those seats.
Trump and Scott are still likely to win the state in their races, but it’s diverting their resources. Might even flip a Republican house seat in Florida back to the Democrats in the process.
I actually do not think this will help the Democrats win more seats in FL as it allows voters to essentially line-item veto the part of the GOP platform they are most likely to disagree with while still supporting GOP candidates they agree with on the other issues. It's similar to CA and their referendums. They have such a robust referendum process in the state that anytime the democrats in the state government go too far (i.e. the law that made Uber stop operating in the state), the voters simultaneously overturn it and re-elect 95% of the incumbents who passed the law. It's a win-win, it makes the voters feel like they were heard while the politicians can tell their interest group allies that they tried but the people said no. When you let voters decide an issue and then respect their decision, they rarely punish those politicians at the ballot box if they agree with the majority of their platform.
I agree that probably 20-25% of Trump and Rick Scott’s voters will also bubble in favor of the abortion and marijuana amendments. The thing is those people are already baked in to the math of the senate and Presidential races as their voters.
Where the math changes is if new voters come out to vote to get abortion access and recreational marijuana in the state. I don’t think there will be record new voter turnout or anything, but it will most definitely turn out new or infrequent voters and will probably skew more towards the Democrats.
I certainly do not disagree with that assessment; however, the only caveat that I would note is that, in a presidential election year, turnout is already so close to its peak that I don't know if there are enough new or infrequent votes to close the gap.
That said, I think you will find a party line forming real quick as to how the politicians will respond to questions regarding this issue and it will be something like 'that is for each voter to decide and since this is an issue of conscience, I will respect the voters' right to be heard and honor any result that a majority of Floridians support.'
Honestly, I think allowing themselves to lose a lot of referendums, and then respecting the results of those referendums, is the best way the GOP handles the overturning of Roe. It lets the voters decide, insulates the elected official, and makes the elected official's views on the issue moot so long as they don't keep reviving the issue in the legislature. That might be the best route for the country as well as its an issue where, when you take their positions in good faith and don't baselessly subscribe your own opinion as to why they have taken that position, both sides have legitimate arguments that are way too nuanced and personal to be effectively handled by the politicians of today.
It will be near peak, but it could increase the youth vote that lacks nationwide and especially in Florida. Not that it’ll be enough, but it’ll honestly probably entice them to the voting booth more than Biden.
Honestly I think a bigger concern for Dems should be whether the amendment itself passes in a presidential election year when turnout is going to be at its highest. Obviously Biden winning the state would be huge and would probably guarantee his reelection, but given how unlikely it is he wins the state, I think the bigger worry should be whether they can get the amendment passed. Just doing a little math here, let’s say Trump wins the state 53%-47%. Let’s assume almost all democrats vote in favor of the abortion amendment. The amendment needs 60% to pass, so that means about 25% of Trump voters are going to need to vote in favor of the amendment (53*.25= 13.2, added to 47 is 60.2). Are 25% of Republican voters willing to vote for a pro choice amendment? I think it’s very plausible that the amendment itself narrowly fails because it can’t get over 60%. Either Dems get a massive turnout advantage and pass the amendment or a significant chunk of Trump voters vote in favor it. Tough to say which is more likely I think.
I wouldn’t be surprised if 25% of voters that end up voting Trump also voted for the amendment.
I see it similarly to the $15 minimum wage that passed in Florida with 61% of the vote on the same ballot Trump won 51% of the vote. I think similar math applied to that as well. If all Democrats voted for a $15 minimum wage, that mean about 25% of Trump voters also voted for a $15 minimum wage.
I wouldn’t be surprised if 25% of people that vote for Trump are also pro-choice.
The abortion access amendment also has two more positives for it that I see as well. It will also be running in tandem with a popular amendment, legalization of recreational marijuana. I imagine this will turn out voters that would vote yes on both.
Also, as of right now, the pro-choice campaign is out raising the anti-choice campaign by a bunch. As in there currently isn’t a campaign against the amendment and the pro-choice side has raised $18 million so far. It’ll be interesting to see if there is a serious campaign against the amendment and how much the raise, but the campaign for the amendment has deep pocket backers.
I don’t think it’s guaranteed to pass, but I’d say it’s more likely than not that it passes.
Considering what happened when the voters decided to give back voting rights to felons, I imagine if this passes, the state legislature will just redefine abortion and continue steamrolling their far-right ideology against the voters wishes. There are far too many far-right voters here now to turn the state anything but deeper red for now.
I am very confident that this will turn Florida blue. Even in Kansas, preserving abortion rights won by 20 points after our hypercorrupt SCOTUS destroyed settled law with Dobbs. Turnout was very high.
I would imagine that a huge number of furious Floridians will show up at the ballot box to overturn the current Midwive’s Tale abomination, and I don’t think they will spend the rest of their time in the ballot box voting for the Tale makers.
That’s actually closer than I thought they’d be.
I figured with DeSantis/Rubio taking the state by 20 and the state only getting redder since that he wouldn’t have any polls still with Biden less than 10 points behind him.
Yeah I knew he wasn’t going to hit midterm 20 point levels, but I figured consistently leading by 10 points or more for Trump would be the norm in Florida.
Surprised to still see it’s consistently in the single digit margins for him in pretty inline with the aggregate margins in Nevada and Georgia.
> I am very confident that this will turn Florida blue.
Depends on what Cubans think about abortion access. They tend to be very anti-socialist and GOP has them convinced Democrats (a right wing party) are socialist. Will abortion be able to overcome that?
Cubans are 7% of the vote in Florida and they do not vote as a block in the same way that, say, black voters do. Republicans might win 60-65% of them. The difference between breaking even with Cubans and losing them by 15% is 0.6% of the overall result. Yes, that's enough to swing an election, but it's not enough to justify focusing on the Cuban electorate at the expense of pursuing, say, higher black turnout, or targeting Puerto Ricans or other Latinos that might be more sympathetic to Dems.
tl;dr Cubans are just white people at this point and we should stop caring about them as a special interest group. Yeah, Janet Reno and Elian Gonzalez wound up saddling us with George W. Bush. It's a shame, but it's in the past - it was *24 years ago.* That is the gap between Carter taking office and Bush taking office. The children of the Cubans who decided the 2000 election are now voters and they barely even consider themselves "Hispanic." They're just white people from Florida.
I mean, Reno didn't help, but Katherine Harris, Governor Jeb Bush's secretary of state, illegally disenfranchised thousands of black likely dem voters weeks before the election. It was stolen.
Didn't mean to imply otherwise. Still, just about any demographic you can mention swinging towards Gore by literally 1000 votes changes everything, and that saga likely swung tens of thousands. I mean, 2000 is just an incredible outlier in every way imaginable.
But yeah, absolutely stolen. Jeb Bush purging the voter rolls is a crime against democracy itself, before you even get into the post-election theft.
*Venezuelans fresh from Caracas consider themselves “white” in Florida too*. 🙄
It’s absurd but yeah, collegeless white vs collegeless Hispanic male = same voter.
Some of them are also just outright Fascist, especially the ones who try to claim that Cuba was "just fine" before Castro took over. Granted, the key word here is "some."
Also, no, I do not think it will. Heck, I would be surprised if Florida would turn Blue over abortion. The GOP have a tight grip here, and the state Democratic Party is notoriously inept.
> especially the ones who try to claim that Cuba was "just fine" before Castro took over
Castro took over in 1959, so these would (largely) just be people who have ancestry in Cuba or left when they were children and have no idea how brutal Batista was. Castro obviously did not rule as some benevolent dictator, but Cuba was not "just fine" before the revolution.
And, agreed on this not turning the state blue. I lived in Maine during a long stretch where our state Democratic party was inept, and we lost some very winnable races because of that.
Doesn’t the population of Florida skew older? I doubt that there are enough women of child bearing age to tip Florida blue to be honest. I would just consider it a red state and move on to other areas.
Not so sure. Older hear. My wife and all her friends grew up when Roe was passed. They feel very very strongly about no man controlling their bodies. Even while she and most of them would not get an abortion, the thought that men can dictate their choice is abhorrent.
March polling has Trump ahead by 7 points in Florida. I'm sure abortion will get some extra voters to cast their ballot but only a portion of those will switch to Biden.
The GOP's budget that wants to cut social security by $1.5 trillion, increasing retirement age, and cutting disability should be plastered on every billboard and tv/radio station. That could move a huge chunk of voters from GOP to Dem. 28% of Floridians are 60+
Not right away. It gives Democrats there a fighting chance to overcome some of the gerrymandering and voter suppression though which could eventually lead to more positive changes
20 / 27 Florida house reps, both senators, the governor, and a supermajority in both houses of state government are republicans. 28/40 and 84/120.
Florida isn’t turning blue.
I have, but people are delusional if they think a state that far red is going blue anytime soon.
Like in time California will go red, in a long time, things change. But you don’t go from hard red to blue, don’t be silly about it. Don’t sound like that group that has been claiming Texas is about to go blue for the last twenty years.
Obama won FL not long ago. When's the last time GOP won in CA, Regan?
GA also went from hard red to blue last election and they've maintained both Senate seats.
I think another point, too, is Flordia dems lost a lot of local elections last year. Completely turning city goverments/County ones to Republicans. Not to mention, the Florida State Democratic party is dysfunctional and seems to be infighting amongst themselves over strategy with the controlling faction trying to run Republican-lite canidates and the more left to center faction wanting to focus on working rights and abortion.
> people are delusional if they think a state that far red is going blue anytime soon.
I agree Florida isn't lonely to go blue anytime soon, but "their current state government isn't blue" doesn't mean much.
Obviously, yes. The Republicans constantly alluding to further attacks on personal freedom in contraception, marriage, sexuality and general health makes this and IVF a bellwether for everyone.
edit: did you mean the state legislature turning blue or the state voting for Biden in November?
No, you greatly underestimate how pro-life even youngish women are south of the bible-belt, and everyone over 55 is either ambivalent or pro-life as well.
Their population is growing older, rapidly, and they didn't have a large white-collar base as it was.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/election-results/2022/kansas/
3 statewide races went R, the Gov barely squeaked through and she was a beloved incumbent, and the house went 3/4, all incumbents kept their seats.
You're thinking the primary election, where motivated women charged the turnout.
The general is different, especially given Florida makes literally every nursing home a polling station, or just busses them to the polls.
I think you are the one confused. Florida grew rapidly and had a rapid exodus. Women in the south struggle to get affordable healthcare and are way more pro choice than pro birth
>Women in the south struggle to get affordable healthcare and are way more pro choice than pro birth
My experience was the opposite, women there were very pro-life because the church was a palpable and dominating force in society.
I'd love to hear that's changed, I'd just be surprised, it was a borderline reign of terror for women in the South.
Georgia went blue in 3 statewide races in 2020 due to terrible R candidates.
Meanwhile, the 2022 statewide races saw Stacey Abrams and Bee Nguyen get blown out in the gubernatorial (8.5 points) and SoS (10 points) races, Carr cruised to a 6 point win over Jordan in the AG race, etc.
The only statewide Democratic win in 2022 was Warnock, and even he lost over 300k voters compared to the runoff for that seat in early 2021.
2020 was at major fluke at this point, not an indication that the state is actually blue in any way.
Warnock was in my district and again, Atlanta is a huge multicultural city, as is Savannah, Columbus and Augusta. Don’t underestimate the amount of Democrats working hard to get more canvassing and voters to the polls. It’s difficult because we had our SOS overseeing his on election to be Governor. The gerrymandering here is insane and it’s hard work to eradicate.
They still got abortion regulations passed afterwords, though. In fact, both Georgia and NC, now purple states, got abortion laws passed quicker than South Carolina, a staunchly Republican state.
They did. They had trigger laws on the books and Georgia is losing major statewide money from businesses that won’t come to Georgia over it. If you don’t think losing revenues aren’t important enough to make a difference in upcoming elections I don’t know what to tell you.
It’s a motivator stronger than anything the people who live here could produce. We the citizens didn’t get a say or the ability to vote for the law changes, but cities recognize when they lose multi million dollar revenue because of this. I am hoping that helps push the state to put it on the ballot.
Local government here in Mason, Ohio pulled a stunt calling us a “pro life sanctuary city.” It made national news. Such an embarrassment.
Joke was on the city council. Procter & Gamble employs 7000 people in this town. They had our useless pro life mayor and most of the right leaning council replaced at the next election with business friendly, centered moderates funded by P&G. Businesses control most of this… at least in districts where there are large business interests.
Oh yeah, Atlanta is lovely. Almost like it escaped the curse of the south.
I lived throughout tennessee. The anger was palpable, and always there.
But then again Georgia actually moved past most of the worst of Jim crow. They don't consider the confederacy their proudest moment.
But tennessee is different, they still do identify with that era and don't think they did anything wrong. It is a proud heritage to them.
The south isn't a region, it's a culture, and I'm not suggesting it needs to be destroyed. But there is a blindness to the dark events in the past that needs to end.
Germantown TN is a city that was founded immediately after segregation, the white population of Memphis picked up and moved 15 miles east through wheat fields out of spite. That's just sad.
I think it'll make headways towards making it a swing state again. Honestly, I thought it would happen in a decade or so. But the Republicans here got high on their supply. We need 60 percent of the vote, so hopefully that'll happen on both counts.
If I didn't live here I'd probably be more optimistic, but since I do, I'm just kinda holding my breath lol Either way we're leaving this state but I'd like the next two years to not be terrible policy wise.
> can this help Biden turn Florida blue in November?
i don't think so. i can see folks voting in favor of the ballot measure while still voting Rep. i don't see FL going blue this cycle.
No way. Source: Lived in FL for a few years. Seriously, though. Florida has jumped on the insane Trump train that's rolling off a cliff and it ain't coming back any time soon. Demographics play a big role and the majority of people moving to FL vote red without a second thought.
Arguably the biggest liability Biden has this election is with base turnout. Too many of his 2020 supporters are dissatisfied with his term, and/or outraged about Gaza. That being said, Trump being as polarizing as he is makes it a very tall lift to convince them to vote for him instead. For the vast majority of unhappy 2020 Biden voters, those who can't bring themselves or aren't motivated to vote for Biden again will either stay at home or will vote third-party.
This referendum significantly helps with the first group. We have seen abortion rights in isolation be a very powerful Dem motivator - there is every reason to believe that this will pull those unhappy supporters to the polls just to vote in favor of abortion rights. They will still have the third-party option at the top of the ticket of course, but for those who still weakly favor Biden over the alternatives, they will sigh and pull the lever for him, just because they were already there. Given the abortion question, it is implausible that those supporters will vote for Trump, reluctantly or otherwise. Biden's campaign will invest considerable resources into reminding voters that it is because of Trump's term this law and referendum are actual issues now.
That all being said...while it helps Biden, it might not be enough to actually win Florida for him (or the Senate candidate). Dems lost very high turnout races in 2018 and 2020 in Florida, and that's before DeSantis went all in on making Florida as repulsive to left-leaning voters/appealing to right-leaning ones as possible. Dems will benefit from the turnout bandage, but they would also need voters to consider on which side of the referendum Trump and Scott are, and decide they can't support people who don't agree with them on such an important question. That's certainly possible, but by no means a sure thing.
It’s going to take the independent female voters to come out in droves to make Florida blue .
Everyone else seems to have made up their minds already .
Florida Democrats have a bad track record of capitalizing on ballot measures that they should be able to tie themselves to easily. 2018 had a felon voting rights restoration ballot measure that passed with 65% of the vote, the gubernatorial race that year was down to less that 1% of a difference between DeSantis and the Dem running against him. 2020 had a ballot measure to raise the minimum wage that passed with 60% of the vote, Trump ended up carrying the state by a bit over 3% and House election votes statewide were won by Republicans by a hair over 5%.
Now, *maybe* a reproductive rights ballot measure plus the marijuana ballot measure are going to help with turnout of voters who are likely Dem but would otherwise be unlikely to vote, but the other way of looking at it is that voters who are turned off by the GOP’s stance on abortion are going to feel less hesitant to vote for them if they’re able to vote in favor of reproductive rights on the same ballot. FL Dems would need to really hammer home that Republicans are going to try and legislate around any ballot measure results that they don’t like, just like they did with felon voting rights restoration. Personally, I don’t have much faith in FL Dems being able to do that well though. They’re among the worst run statewide parties in the country. Certainly the worst run statewide party in a potentially viable state.
Not hardly. For some reason people believe that pro choice people only vote blue. This is not the case. A great many pro choice people are Republicans who support abortion however with restrictions such as a 16 week ban etc.
The whole idea to allow an abortion based on a certain number of weeks is insane to me.
What's the difference between 16 weeks and 17 weeks gestation? Really, nothing.
It also makes no consideration if the fetus is unviable after 6 or 16 weeks. Will Women suffer with a dying fetus in their body because it's past the date of abortion?
Roe solved all these problems by saying abortions are allowed up to the moment of viability (which is what the 16week ban tries to do, but fails).
What's funny to me is there could be situations where a 16week old fetus is viable per the DR, and under ROE they wouldn't get an abortion.. but this one-size-fits-all- 16 week ban they would.
I would be very grateful to hear from someone convinced a 16week ban is right for all American women, and how you address situations where a fetus is unviable outside the ban.
Of course I can't speak for everyone's opinions on the subject, but, in general, 16 weeks is not about fetuses with medical issues or that are not viable, or medical issues with the person pregnant, but about abortions for other reasons.
It's fair to say that a majority of Americans feel that abortions should be permitted in cases of medical complications. That should be between a doctor and their patient. What complications and complications to who is where you have a lot of variance.
But where abortions are done for pregnancies that are unwanted (differing here from done for medical reasons), a lot of people think this should be limited to the period before the fetus can reliably survive outside of the womb. That also gives the person a reasonable amount of time to realize they are pregnant and make a decision regarding the pregnancy.
Just like there is a very small vocal minority of people who feel that all abortions should be against the law, and a larger but still minority group that feel that abortions should only be permitted under extreme medical circumstances, it's also a small amount of Americans that feel abortions for any reason (including unwanted pregnancies) should be legal across the board until birth.
16 weeks is a comfortable medium between the two extremes, and something many pro-choice supporters and a few pro-birth advocates can live with, even if they are not happy about it.
Thank you so much for your response.
So it IS about viability for you as well. I'm very much pro choice and I agree with the redline of viability, too.
But it begs the question why throw out ROE when the law was written to permit abortions before viability and allowed the DR to determine that. The viability date can be different from fetus to fetus.
I feel that people have the misconception that ROE allowed Women to abort healthy fetuses after viability..and that was as illegal then as it is now.
This 16 week law does nothing to address complications after the 16 week deadline, and because of that it fails.
Would you vote to reenact the law of ROE over this 16 week abortion law?
When all the votes are tallied in November, more than likely it will remain red at least at the federal level. This could potentially help certain congressional/state races.
What it will do at the presidential level, though, is likely force the Trump campaign to spend money it is already struggling to raise to defend what should be a safe red state. Money that could otherwise be going to Michigan/PA/AZ/GA. So in that sense it helps Democrats.
Google: Kansas state senate, Kansas senators, Kansas state congress, Kansas congressmen
Governors are a weird office in a lot of states that are often not in line with the general populace of the state. Kansas has a democratic governor, yes. But literally the entirety of their representation at the federal and state level is blood red.
Mass had a republican governor for a long time, but no one was under the delusion that Mass was a red state.
Here’s an hot take: it will help Republicans. I’m not talking about those who are very religious and anti abortion to begin with. I think it could allow swing voters who might have registered their discontent with the courts recent ruling to continue to vote for Republicans but vote for the amendment. It doesn’t make much sense long term (of course the Republicans are going to try their best to put further restrictions on abortion in place). It provides an outlet that could have otherwise gone towards keeping certain segments home or voting Democrat.
No, Floridians have a self-harm fetish no matter how they vote. There are so many residents who truly have no interest in how the state is governed as long as the weather is nice and you can still drink on the beach.
I don't think so..the average American is notorious for making decisions on emotional feelings. The culture war has a lot of people outraged and feeling like they are actual soldiers in a make-believe war. People will give up their rights if they feel like they can gain nobility and purpose.
In my opinion, no..
Florida is not in play in 2024, in a race of Trump vs Biden
Trump wins Florida every time
that said, it could help flip a few House districts, possibly.
On the other hand, these ballot measures could benefit Republicans as independents and more traditional, Reaganite Conservatives could vote in favor of abortion while still voting for Republicans across the ballot, knowing that their core priorities will be more likely to be fulfilled by Republicans while removing the wildcard of how the state will interfere with reproductive care.
It's far from certain that this will guarantee dems are competitive in Florida. The Florida Democratic Party is notoriously incompetent on the level of Michigan Republicans and very well may find a way to blow it. What this will do instead is force dems to divert resources to Florida to help the enshrine abortion in the state constitution that may be more effectively spent in other states to help Biden win the presidency or the Dems keep the Senate, especially when the bar to get it passed is really high at 60%. There's no guarantee of the overlap either between the people voting in favor of the ballot measures and people supporting Biden. In 2018, the ballot measure to restore voting rights to felons passed, hitting 64% support, but DeSantis eked out a victory to win his first term in office, Rick Scott beat incumbent Bill Nelson to win a Senate seat in what was otherwise a Democratic wave year across the country. I don't think this ballot measure will help Biden's chances significantly, and it may even hurt them nationally depending on resource, labor, and campaign distribution Biden devotes to Florida unless that investment comes with a dramatic overhaul of the state party and a rallying figure capable of organizing effectively like Stacey Abrams or Beto O'Rourke show up and even that might only pay dividends in future elections.
It's certainly possible, but it's still a real uphill battle.
Not sure if it will be enough to flip the state presidentially (Trump is the ultimate FloridaMan, after all), but it will certainly help in House races and in the Senate. Rick Scott is not terribly popular and is running against a former Congresswoman from South Florida who is.
I don't know if that will be enough at the statewide level. It should help Democrats in close House races, but I don't know how many there may be. The Florida Democratic Party has fallen apart in the last several years lacking good leadership and organization. I have my doubts they'll be able to turn things around entirely this cycle, but maybe the fact that they've been able to get these initiatives on the ballot is a good sign.
What are the chances? Hopefully the abortion amendment will help bring out the women and the marijuana amendment will help bring out the young people. I'd say there is a chance.
Florida Democrats have a bad track record of capitalizing on ballot measures that they should be able to tie themselves to easily. 2018 had a felon voting rights restoration ballot measure that passed with 65% of the vote, the gubernatorial race that year was down to less that 1% of a difference between DeSantis and the Dem running against him. 2020 had a ballot measure to raise the minimum wage that passed with 60% of the vote, Trump ended up carrying the state by a bit over 3% and House election votes statewide were won by Republicans by a hair over 5%.
Now, *maybe* a reproductive rights ballot measure plus the marijuana ballot measure are going to help with turnout of voters who are likely Dem but would otherwise be unlikely to vote, but the other way of looking at it is that voters who are turned off by the GOP’s stance on abortion are going to feel less hesitant to vote for them if they’re able to vote in favor of reproductive rights on the same ballot. FL Dems would need to really hammer home that Republicans are going to try and legislate around any ballot measure results that they don’t like, just like they did with felon voting rights restoration. Personally, I don’t have much faith in FL Dems being able to do that well though. They’re among the worst run statewide parties in the country. Certainly the worst run statewide party in a potentially viable state.
It wont turn blue, certainly not in 2024, that doesn't just happen overnight especially in a state that took a sharp turn to the right the past 8(?) years. At best it will make the state less purplish red.
But it does give the dems some motivation to show up to the polls and may help in downballot races. They shouldn't overconfidently assume that they can flip the state blue because thats a bit naive, but with a not so popular senator up for reelection and 2 left leaning policies on the ballot they can at least slow down the right wing spread if they carefully play their cards right.
The statewide dems already fumbled badly in 2018, and hit rock bottom in 2022, maybe 2024 can be a fresh start for them.
The people of Florida are stupid. VERY stupid. It's hard to imagine that the women living there are smart enough to vote in favor of controlling their own bodies, but I hope they prove me wrong.
No. If Florida turns blue, it would mean a Biden victory by a large margin on a national level, and that's not going to happen. It will be close either way which means Florida will remain red.
The majority of people may not favor an abortion ban, but among the ones who would be willing to decide their vote on a general election on that issue, the vast majority were already voting democrat.
It's hard to say, Florida has been sliding right for a while now, but there seems to be a split about abortion in the republican party. Non religious Republicans are increasingly starting to lighten up on the issue. The type of Republican who really wants abortion banned are the protestant evangelicals, not the trade worker who votes red because he wants lower taxes and doesn't like gun control. I think the real issue lies in the fact the most wealthy and powerful Republican base are the evangelicals so that steers politicians to advocate for anti abortion policies they may not even believe in.
>can this help Biden turn Florida blue in November?
Only if Trump and/or GOP members ramp up the rhetoric of a national abortion ban. Outside of that I find it difficult to believe Biden winning Florida. Anecdotally I know many people who are moving to Florida to escape Democrat policies (i.e. NY, NJ, CA). And the biggest voting demographic moving there are only caring about short gains.....because they're gonna die soonish.
I’m a republican and will be voting FOR abortion rights.
Fighting over this is stupid. It affects no one except the person doing one. My wife wouldnt do it and i dont support it but who the fuck am i to tell someone else not to?
Measures in Florida need 60% to pass. I seriously doubt this measure has 60% support in Florida. Keep in mind the California measure passed with 66% and the Ohio and Michigan measures both got 56%. The measure will get more than 50% but I seriously doubt it’ll perform 4 points better than it did in Michigan. Especially given how Florida has lots of Catholic Hispanics who aren’t big on abortion.
Right now I think it’ll fall a hair short of 60%. I also doubt Florida is in play for the Democrats, being on a losing streak doesn’t usually bode well for a party’s turnout. Republicans suffer from the same thing in PA and Michigan.
the majority of hispanic catholics nationwide actually [support](https://www.ncronline.org/news/politics/new-survey-found-latino-catholics-overwhelmingly-support-abortion-rights-heres-why) abortion. in florida specifically, it’s is a little more [even](https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/religious-landscape-study/compare/views-about-abortion/by/racial-and-ethnic-composition/among/state/florida/) at 49% of latinos supporting abortion.
the thing about michigan and california is that people actually expected those measures to pass, so voter turnout may not be as high. keep in mind that kansas is a republican stronghold (albeit with a democratic governor), and it was the first state to vote on and keep abortion rights by a 58% vote. 60% is a very high threshold, but voter turnout i assume will be much higher considering the stakes.
Not really. Florida has such supreme voter suppression efforts that there really is no margin through which blue areas can bridge the gap. People would have to line up and be willing to wait in line passed election day in order for blue areas to get all of their voters to the polls. 1 voter location with 3 machines for a million people in any blue area, 100 voter machines and polling places in a red area with 10k people ensures that's its easy for someone to vote red, and a multi day ordeal to vote blue. No motivated base can really overcome that. Especially if they pull a Texas and make it so you can't bring food and water to someone in line.
No. There are more conservatives than liberals and progressives in Florida, and they won't be lacking enthusiasm to return their criminal leader (and in-state celebrity) back to the White House.
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It will certainly help, will it make it truly turn blue would be surprising but with what happened in Ohio and even recently with the Alabama state house it should make the Republicans nervous.
The midwest states that carried Trump to his original victory have shown serious fatigue with their Republican state governments. The result was Republicans getting shut out of Michigan after running it for a generation, and Wisconsin voters desperately trying to eject their entrenched Republican majority via gerrymander reform, and Pennsylvania continuing to vote for Dems statewide in every election since '16. Florida is not immune to the same thing. What it does have going for it, from the GOP's point of view, is that people who have moved there in recent years were self-selected in a way that was favorable to them. (Obsessed with low taxes, in favor of the gay-lib-owning policies, not believing in climate change which will likely ruin the state, etc.) In 2020 they performed almost 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole. That is likely to lessen with this abortion initiative on the ballot. If Biden wins Florida, it's likely he's already won the election easily, but it would still be a huge symbolic victory. It could **also** put Rick Scott's seat up for grabs. I think that seat is way more in play than people give it credit for, especially considering that Scott, personally, is 0% likeable, as much as he seems good at winning elections in Florida.
It really is the self selecting movement, both in and out of the state. No one not a Republican and bigot is going to want to move to Florida. My wife works in higher education, her parents retired to Florida a few years back and they keep sending my wife job listings for Florida universities. The problem is my wife and I refuse to move to Florida due to academic freedom issues with the aforementioned universities and the reason those jobs are open is because of politics designed to drive those people out.
> My wife works in higher education, her parents retired to Florida a few years back and they keep sending my wife job listings for Florida universities. The problem is my wife and I refuse to move to Florida due to academic freedom issues with the aforementioned universities and the reason those jobs are open is because of politics designed to drive those people out. Anecdotal, but from my personal experience, this is very true from all the people I know who work in education and academia. People seem much more reluctant to move there for employment in those fields than, say, ten years ago. That will definitely help the partisans cement support, but it's going to cause more systemic issues down the line.
The cities are still blue :) And many Florida natives are more liberal and centrist. That stupid trans and crt scare got a lot of people active and convinced a lot of centrists.
Which is why it's perfect for retirees. The old folks move to Florida, and the people who retire here don't have to worry about pregnancy because they are most likely past the point of getting pregnant. That is unless the older male retiree hooks up with someone who is fertile. If it doesn't impact them, they probably won't care.
If Biden wins FL....I may die of shock. Here in TX, am hoping Allred sends Cruz packing....but I don't see Biden winning the state.
There is no reason not to try. We are not in such dire straits we need to invest every cent and every campaign resource into six battleground states. We have to expand the battleground and FL and especially TX are obvious places to do it.
TX leads the nation in voter apathy. I don't know why. Perhaps due to gerrymandering, many feel it is a waste of time to vote, but that does not impact the national elections and Senate.
It can still affect polling place locations and wait times though.
Closing voting locations, reducing early voting days and hours, and reducing the number of voting machines which can result in long lines....all can contribute to voter apathy. The problem is, we may have seen the last free US election in 2020. If people are too apathetic to fight to save democracy, then they will receive an authoritarian fascist regime.
Get ready to be disappointed, even as dislikable as Cruz is. Allred is not an angel, either. I get the feeling a lot of conservatives may turn liberal out of fear, the passion and anger the Left has on its side, and the whole winning cohesive unit factor. My opinion
Beto could have beaten Cruz..but didn't. He even carried Tarrant County but still lost enough in rural areas. What do you know about Allred? He's a former NFL player...seems pretty smart.
Bro, I’m not a fan of Allred. He played linebacker for the Titans and absolutely sucked. Only 40 something tackles in 4 years. However I respect him as a He doesn’t seem that smart and just repeats talking points most lefties do. Although idk how intelligent he is. I’m sure he’s smart enough. Obama who I supported, is a big reason why I and many latinos are switching. Not to mention I’m a veteran. He’s just like Beto who was a joke to me. I’m a Conservative personally. Although I’m a not the biggest fan of Cruz, nor very many politicians for that matter. Too many people kiss their ass, and seem to idolize them. However, If I was a Dem. I would cut out the smarminess, the ugliness, the bad faith arguments and anger. I would find a Veteran like Dem Governor Wes Moore from Maryland. He’s not arrogant, angry, smarmy, or unreasonable. He seems to really love his country regardless of its past mistakes. For me, I want a candidate who truly LOVES their country, and is willing to shed blood for it. I want a legitimate warrior and fighter as a leader who’s willing to take a bullet for his nation. You feel me?
You are a veteran. Do you support Trump? You already know his sick comments on vets. What exactly did Obama do to make you and other Latino's switch? Do you support a woman's right to choose? Do you think the state has a right to tell a woman she can't have an abortion? Do you support school vouchers, which are nothing more than a subsidy for the wealthy? Do you believe that immigrants coming to the US seeking asylum have a right to have their case heard in a court of law and a judge determine their claim? Do you believe that one should have a license and training in order to own a gun? Do you think that a thorough background check should be done before you can purchase a gun? Have you looked at Allred's positions on various topics? Finally.....what has Ted Cruz done?
Before I answer, I have to ask. Are you asking me because you are asking in good faith, or are you looking argument? Are you asking because you’re generally curious and open to my opinion, or are you trying to just impose your own on me. If so, then I don’t think it would be productive, or a good use of my time to answer, then be lectured or ranted at for the beliefs I hold true to, and because it l love my state and country with all my heart. You feel me, big dawg?
For one of my data classes I took, I dumped historic election data on a map by County for the last few Presidential elections. I made a heat map of the swing differences from election to election. Most Counties didn't swing that hard in 2020, save one exception. The border Texas Counties had wild swings going deeper red. Like 20-30% swings. The border issue is going to be interesting. Because even though it's easy for Republicans to harp on it, the fact they killed the bill to fix anything just for Trump would have me livid if I was being directly affected and lived in those Counties, which is a little different than watching fox news up North. Looking forward to seeing the result this election just because of that.
Many in Eagle Pass denounced Abbott's razor wire and national guard facility being built nearby. They do not see 'masses invading.' They see men, women, and their children seeking asylum. They are not armed or hiding drugs.
Not sure why you are arguing data: Starr county: 19% Trump to 47% - 28% swing Maverick County: 21% Trump to 45% - 24% swing Jim Hogg County: 20% to 41% - 21% swing Just a few examples. These are blue counties, but a huge part of their voterbase changed their mind in 2020. Most Counties all through out the country went the opposite direction a couple percentage points. Those blue border counties swung hard. Either dems didn't show up, moved, or changed their mind for Trump. Those are insane numbers from 2016 when they voted for Clinton in a landslide to almost Trump winning those areas. This is the only area I saw crazy numbers. What's your explanation then? By the way other Counties flipped hard, like Kenedy and zapata. 20 % swings. Biden lost those where Clinton won big.
Am not disagreeing. Many have flipped to Trump. I have been to Eagle Pass many times back when I worked for a work wear manufacturer. Each day hundreds walked across the bridge to work in the US then at the end of the work day they walked back. I saw the river. Nobody was in it trying to cross...but that was years ago. Obama was president. Things change. Am in TX. Local stations showed folks in Eagle Pass supporting the immigrants.....but there were many ' white men' that were not and glad Abbott put up the razor wire.
Florida has shown zero indication of what you have talked about. What Democrat has won a statewide office in Florida since 2016? Trump won by a bigger margin in 2020, and so did DeSantis in 2022. Rubio won in 2022 by a lot as well. The legislation is still far right wing and passing their hard right agenda just like always. Rick Scott is not losing his seat.
Things never change until they change. Not saying major movement in Florida is likely but to rule it out is foolish. [Scott is up three points in the polls.](https://thehill.com/homenews/4508253-scott-narrowly-leads-mucarsel-powell-in-florida-senate-race-poll/) He is facing a campaign. He produced a helpful "use this to campaign against me" memo for the RNC in 2022 recommending brutally unpopular policies - voters will only become more aware of that as the year goes on. DeSantis won that big victory in '22 and is now unpopular in Florida, and has 60% disapproval among independents (who usually lean Republican). That is fairly strong evidence of some movement.
> Not saying major movement in Florida is likely but to rule it out is foolish. Not ruling it out, just saying there is zero indication of any change to date. >Scott is up three points in the polls. Polls are meaningless 7 months out from the election. Example: August 2022 had Val Demmings under 3 points from Rubio, only to get blown out by 16% in the election.
Weird, whenever I predict a 9 point Biden victory and tell people this they don't buy it. :v You're not wrong, though. People will tend to say that close polls show a race is "up for grabs," even early in a campaign, but I don't really agree with that. Rubio's 16% is a stronger data point. Like, I don't know what to tell you, man. Scott is obviously a heavy favorite. There are still like 25 other seats I'd rather be defending than his. And the abortion issue is not going to be helping him, especially ow that it's directly on the ballot. My perspective that Scott is in danger reflects my personal belief that this election will be more heavily Democratic than 2022, which most people are not yet even imagining is possible (because of polls!)
> Things never change until they change The only thing changing about Florida is that it's a conservative retirement home. As brain drain continues Florida will sink deeper... But the kids born and raised there have an opportunity for a better future elsewhere. **Invest in education**
I am not in Florida, but from left-leaning Floridians I hear dismay that there is no organized Democratic party, no real leadership. Like, in the last governor's race they ran a former Republican instead of an actual Democrat. I don't know how you go from 'we have no ground game' to 'we actually have robust networks of activists and supporters providing funding for a solid slate of candidates,' but I hope there are people in Florida working toward that.
> I hear dismay that there is no organized Democratic party, no real leadership. Because the Dems view it as a lost cause. It would take a substantial amount of time and resources to try and get anything to flip, so they focus resources where they have more leverage. >Like, in the last governor's race they ran a former Republican instead of an actual Democrat. Yes, that was Charlie Crist, who actually ran as a Democrat twice. First time in 2014 against Rick Scott and lost. And it was more because the Dems didn't have anyone in the talent pool, and because DeSantis was such a powerhouse it was going to be useless anyway. The only other strong candidate was the state ag commissioner that won by like 20 votes.
>in the last governor's race they ran a former Republican instead of an actual Democrat. We have this problem in Louisiana as well. The local Democrat political machine has been totally compromised.
How much of Louisiana Democrats at-large, not the fringe segment, are in sync with the national platform? For example, are Louisiana Democrats supportive of transgender individual in women's sports? If not I can imagine why national Democrat machine may abandon them; don't look like hypocrites and it produces more wins in competitive seats.
Individual Democratic members of government are generally fine. Sure, governor Edwards was pro-life, but he was a hell of a lot better than the alternative and he held the Republican legislative agenda at bay. Now we've got a MAGA trifecta running the state and we're truly fucked. As a clear example of how compromised the state-level party is, here in New Orleans they ran a nepotistic former Republican with no experience against a popular Democratic incumbent. They're actively trying to remove successful progressives from government. The DNC has its own problems at the national level, but that's an entirely separate discussion and it has little to do with the clusterfuck we're stuck with here. Abandoning the south on account of a no true scotsman fallacy is terrible electoral strategy anyway.
Is that irony? The people who don't "believe" in climate change moving to a state that is likely most drastically affected by it?
It will be interesting to see if it takes Florida into the Blue column.
At the very least, Florida just became a more expensive state for the GOP to retain and that hurts when they are struggling with fundraising
The electoral map would be pure chaos if Florida goes blue and rust belt goes red.
I feel like Biden is too beloved by union folk for the rust belt to go full red.
I agree completely. I think it's highly unlikely Trump takes the rust belt in any fashion given how current trends have been there, especially looking at how the MIGOP is fucked with Karamo and funding. If Florida did end up going blue, there's very little chance that the rust belt wouldn't as well. In a simulation that would be a very far off edge case
Remember: your average blue collar union worker still drives a truck and votes for maga...
If Florida is somehow blue, Michigan would also be blue in that cycle.
The fact that the 6 week ban (i.e practically total ban in effect) is going to be the law by then make it even more likely that the abortion referendum will be in favor of the pro-choice side and get the 60% it needs. It’s a high threshold but given what is the alternative, i.e. radical policy like a 6 week ban, it will be easy to drive turnout and even “kinda pro-choice but in favor of first trimester or 15 week bans” will vote heavily for the pro-choice side. Like put it this way, Republicans won’t have the ability to go “well the yes side goes too far” in their campaign when the law in place is a de facto total abortion ban. Keep in mind too that the 6 week ban was super unpopular when it was being discussed a year ago, like 35-65 approve to disapprove. Even a majority of Republicans weren’t in favor of it. And that was just when it wasn’t law then like it will be in 30 days. This is all secondary but also given FL is a high floor state for Democrats in Presidential years, it’ll help Biden and whoever is running against Scott and flip downballot races. Enough to flip the state blue? Who knows. But it'll help.
I’m with you but I’m thinking this might be a good way to get Trump to spend his campaign cash in Florida and over commit and then hopefully spend less in more important states
> Keep in mind too that the 6 week ban was super unpopular when it was being discussed a year ago, like 35-65 approve to disapprove. I don't remember where I heard this, but IIRC, when you explain what a 6 week ban really is (the fact that at 6 weeks, few women even know that they're pregnant, yet), the approval rating of the bans drops even further. Basically, very few people support full bans, just some people think that a 6 week ban means giving women 6 weeks to make a decision. We could use some better education in our country to fix this problem.
Maybe? It's funny, in a way, Republicans should be embracing amendments that protect abortion. They can tell pro-lifers they did their best, and now that the issue is off the table, centrists have nothing to fear from them again. But Republicans will probably campaign against the ratification of the amendment like the short sighted dimwits they are, so it really depends on how many Republicans and center-right independents are willing to vote for the amendment, and still vote for the person telling them not to vote for the amendment. In many states, I would say it probably wouldn't happen that often. But in Florida? Man, they have a history of cognitive dissonance. It'll certainly help Democrats to some degree. I just don't know if it'll help to the degree that it'll push Florida into blue.
The "old-school" Machiavellian arm of the GOP would indeed be trying that strategy -- the problem is that the beast that they fed through Fox, Rush Limbaugh, right-wing blogs, AM radio, etc. has now started to get elected themselves, and they're True Believers in the cause. Frankenstein's Monster has slowly been turning on its creator, and the big-money old-school Republicans are stuck with the monster they've spent the last 40 years nurturing. Too bad that they're at least somewhat likely to take the rest of the country with them as part of their downfall.
I think the problem is people equating pro-choice referendums and pro-choice politicians. By that, I mean that there is a difference between voting for reproductive rights on the ballot, and voting for candidates that support reproductive rights. I'm not convinced that Republicans that want reproductive health want it to the point that they would actually vote for a Democrat. I think the ones that would be willing to cross over for something like that are a vanishingly small percentage. I would think the answer to OP's question is "likely no" -- reproductive rights being a line-item on the ballot would make it *less* likely that Florida would turn blue. Anyone that feels strongly about freedom of reproductive health and they can vote on it means they don't have to hold their nose and vote for a Democrat. Also, one thing to note is that other abortion ballot initiatives have passed with less than 60% supporting -- so the split here is concerning.
>there is a difference between voting for reproductive rights on the ballot, and voting for candidates that support reproductive rights. I'm not convinced that Republicans that want reproductive health want it to the point that they would actually vote for a Democrat. That is the sticking point, yes.
Do you think pro-lifers wouldn't notice Republicans doing that, and primary them in favor of candidates who pledge to fight the amendments?
Republicans shouldn't embrace abortion protections, but the more savvy ones should not actually try to enact bans on abortion, because it removes a major motivator for their base. SCOTUS overturning Roe v Wade will be a big blow to a lot of Republicans because now it's one less thing to campaign on.
It's not like Democrats stopped campaigning on abortion when _Roe_ was decided.
Because it was flimsy as we saw when it was overturned recently. A law protecting abortion would've been much better.
If an abortion ban were passed, do you not think there would immediately be Democrats promising to repeal it?
Yeah definitely. They also might just sit home and not vote if they felt they didn't have a dog in the race.
Well, I just said the quiet part out loud. So presumably, if the GOP were to adopt the proposed strategy, they would keep the quiet part *quiet.*
The base would still notice a conspicuous silence/inaction on the issue, and be more likely to vote for candidates who were loudly and fiercely fighting for the cause. Unless you're proposing that Republican politicians should engage in pro-life activism that they either just hope fails or attempt to counter with secret pro-choice activism that they just hope doesn't get caught, that seems like a losing proposition.
>Unless you're proposing that Republican politicians should engage in pro-life activism that they either just hope fails or attempt to counter with secret pro-choice activism that they just hope doesn't get caught, that seems like a losing proposition. They do it with populism all the time. It's how we end up with the "leopards eating people's faces party" meme.
It will be a driver towards that, if anything. Coupled with recreational marijuana we could see something signifigant (florida just going back to being a swing state). I don't have much faith in the result to come but I'll be damned if it doesnt give me a little extra fire. Just to nitpick add: Abortion is not a winning issue for democrats - bodily autonomy free of government is.
The most likely outcome is that a bunch of people vote for Trump while also voting to protect abortion access. It’s very plausible that Trump wins the state and the abortion protection amendment passes as well.
This is exactly what will happen, imo. A lot of people assume that voter support for specific, individual issues translates to particular candidates or parties, and while that's true for many voters a lot of voters simply don't think that way. We actually have a very recent natural experiment from florida on this. In 2020, there was a $15 minimum wage ballot measure in Florida. A lot of pundits thought that having the minimum wage measure would help democrats--republicans were ACTIVELY opposing it, after all. The $15 minimum wage measure passed with a HUGE margin (like over 70% approval) but trump actually increased his margin of victory from 2016 (in other words, he won florida by a bigger margin in 2020 than he did in 2016). I think if anything, having the measure on the ballot might hurt democrats. If you're a mostly-centrist or right-leaning voter who ALSO cares about abortion, this allows you to protect abortion in your state without having to vote for democrats. Like, imagine you support trump but your hesitant to vote for him because of the abortion issue--this kind of gives you an "out."
Its truly the most enigmatic of the purple states imo.
Everyone saying Florida will turn blue has not been to Florida. It’s as red as it can be. The state population has grown significantly in recent years and largely from people who went to Florida because it’s a red state. When voters get to vote on abortion access directly, such as what is on the ballot this fall, they will support it. But they’ll also vote for Republican candidates on the same ballot who will restrict abortion because tax cuts and wokeness. So expect both the amendments to pass, and for Trump to win the state.
Just like what happened with allowing felons to vote and raising the minimum wage in ‘20 I believe.
Exactly, I immediately saw this as a move to disentangle the issue from the rest of the ballot. If it is possible to get on the ballot in time, I'd expect this to happen in some other states. Florida is likely to go red either way, so I think this would be a rare win for their citizens on both sides.
Yep. We moved out of Florida last year after living there for 20 years largely for political reasons. And we know many others who have done the same. Even my grandparents who moved there to retire are moving back up north because of it. Florida is a *hard* red state. And more conservatives coming in and liberals moving out is only going to strengthen that. That’s not even taking into account the Latino community in Florida that is shifting further and further right. The FL Democratic Party is a joke, practically non existent, and has no real plan. Florida is a lost cause. I will celebrate the day it’s finally swallowed up by the ocean.
Yup; Obama won it at 50.1% to 49.13% for Romney, but it was 47.8 to 51.2% for Trump in 2020. And it has only become more Red since then. I agree they will cross vote. Ballot wins, Trump wins. All things being equal as of today. A Trump criminal conviction between now and then could be enough to nudge it Blue, though. However, challenging Trump in Florida and spending more money there could help the Florida Dems (who need it).
Which is very weird since it’s an incredible diverse state.
It's also home to an exceptional amount of white old people, who show up to vote very reliably.
Is it really that diverse, or is it mostly white retirees and Cubans? Cubans tend to vote conservative economically and many are racist (I'm related to some of them myself). The Cubans I know are huge Trumpsters, sadly. I now live in northern California, a truly diverse place with Asians, Africans (my neighborhood is Eritrean), Philippinos, and Latinos. My decades in Florida were not nearly so diverse.
It’s incredibly diverse. Brazilians, Colombian, Argentinians, Venzeualans and Chileans. Pretty much every flavor of Latino you can find.
They all tend to vote right wing because they had the money to move and fled far left governments in their home countries. Most of them own the $800,000 beachfront condos. They’re low information voters assuming they even gained citizenship. They think Biden is a communist when by that definition, he’s center right.
Similar amendments have failed in more traditionally red states. This is far from a slam dunk.
Which states? Thus far only a few states have directly voted on it. Ohio, Kansas, Kentucky, Vermont, and Michigan have all voted on protecting abortion access. The ones that failed were specifically designed to say the constitution does NOT guarantee access, such as Kentucky and Kansas. Wisconsin elected a Supreme Court justice who openly campaigned on protecting abortion access. Other states have it on the ballot this November.
Ohio passed it by 15 points and it’s at least as red as Florida. Soooo. I’m not sure where you get that from.
Ohio didn’t reach 60%. It only passed there because they only needed 50%. Otherwise it would have failed.
Exactly, but Florida is further center than OH
Even after the massive influx of republicans to the state, and the exodus of leftists?
Still to the left of Ohio yep
I'm going to laugh so hard if Florida turns blue because of this. Personally, I give Florida a 40% chance of going blue based on our current climate. This is a lot higher than I originally had before this ruling (a 10% chance). Not only will abortion bring a higher turnout to the polls (which will favor Biden), it will also make the Republicans have to spend a lot more money on these races. Money that the Republicans *do not have*, but Democrats do. As long as the economy continues to do well, and Trump continues to have legal issues, Biden's chances will keep increasing.
It’s not going to happen; the only people that will even know this is a ballot measure heading into Election Day were already going to vote one way or another as it is, and the people that were going to vote based on abortion access were always going to vote blue. They’d probably run up the score far more were this a ballot measure on an off-year; as things stand, I predict it will pass, but also serve as a pressure release valve allowing people of all political stripes to vote their opinion on this specific issue, abortion, while also voting how they traditionally do across the ballot otherwise.
> I predict it will pass, but also serve as a pressure release valve allowing people of all political stripes to vote their opinion on this specific issue, abortion, while also voting how they traditionally do across the ballot otherwise. That's an interesting theory. I think the logic is pretty sound, but I can't think of any similar kind of ballot measure that worked in that way. Maybe prop 8 in CA in 2008?
Minimum wage in Florida a few years back. This will pass, with a lot of split ballots going to Trump who will easily carry the state.
Oh, good point. Also, and my memory may be off on this one, expanding voting rights to convicted felons in FL.
The difference is how well funded the pro-choice and pro-marijuana legalization campaigns are. I think the pro-marijuana campaign has over $40 million raised so far and the pro-choice campaign has around $20 million raised. That was before they got on the ballot. The Democrats don’t really need Florida for anything and they’re flush with cash. So if the posturing draws GOP money into Florida, that’s a plus for Democrats. If the Republicans have to spend money to defend Scott that’s less they’re spending in Ohio and Montana to flip those seats. Trump and Scott are still likely to win the state in their races, but it’s diverting their resources. Might even flip a Republican house seat in Florida back to the Democrats in the process.
I actually do not think this will help the Democrats win more seats in FL as it allows voters to essentially line-item veto the part of the GOP platform they are most likely to disagree with while still supporting GOP candidates they agree with on the other issues. It's similar to CA and their referendums. They have such a robust referendum process in the state that anytime the democrats in the state government go too far (i.e. the law that made Uber stop operating in the state), the voters simultaneously overturn it and re-elect 95% of the incumbents who passed the law. It's a win-win, it makes the voters feel like they were heard while the politicians can tell their interest group allies that they tried but the people said no. When you let voters decide an issue and then respect their decision, they rarely punish those politicians at the ballot box if they agree with the majority of their platform.
I agree that probably 20-25% of Trump and Rick Scott’s voters will also bubble in favor of the abortion and marijuana amendments. The thing is those people are already baked in to the math of the senate and Presidential races as their voters. Where the math changes is if new voters come out to vote to get abortion access and recreational marijuana in the state. I don’t think there will be record new voter turnout or anything, but it will most definitely turn out new or infrequent voters and will probably skew more towards the Democrats.
I certainly do not disagree with that assessment; however, the only caveat that I would note is that, in a presidential election year, turnout is already so close to its peak that I don't know if there are enough new or infrequent votes to close the gap. That said, I think you will find a party line forming real quick as to how the politicians will respond to questions regarding this issue and it will be something like 'that is for each voter to decide and since this is an issue of conscience, I will respect the voters' right to be heard and honor any result that a majority of Floridians support.' Honestly, I think allowing themselves to lose a lot of referendums, and then respecting the results of those referendums, is the best way the GOP handles the overturning of Roe. It lets the voters decide, insulates the elected official, and makes the elected official's views on the issue moot so long as they don't keep reviving the issue in the legislature. That might be the best route for the country as well as its an issue where, when you take their positions in good faith and don't baselessly subscribe your own opinion as to why they have taken that position, both sides have legitimate arguments that are way too nuanced and personal to be effectively handled by the politicians of today.
It will be near peak, but it could increase the youth vote that lacks nationwide and especially in Florida. Not that it’ll be enough, but it’ll honestly probably entice them to the voting booth more than Biden.
Honestly I think a bigger concern for Dems should be whether the amendment itself passes in a presidential election year when turnout is going to be at its highest. Obviously Biden winning the state would be huge and would probably guarantee his reelection, but given how unlikely it is he wins the state, I think the bigger worry should be whether they can get the amendment passed. Just doing a little math here, let’s say Trump wins the state 53%-47%. Let’s assume almost all democrats vote in favor of the abortion amendment. The amendment needs 60% to pass, so that means about 25% of Trump voters are going to need to vote in favor of the amendment (53*.25= 13.2, added to 47 is 60.2). Are 25% of Republican voters willing to vote for a pro choice amendment? I think it’s very plausible that the amendment itself narrowly fails because it can’t get over 60%. Either Dems get a massive turnout advantage and pass the amendment or a significant chunk of Trump voters vote in favor it. Tough to say which is more likely I think.
I wouldn’t be surprised if 25% of voters that end up voting Trump also voted for the amendment. I see it similarly to the $15 minimum wage that passed in Florida with 61% of the vote on the same ballot Trump won 51% of the vote. I think similar math applied to that as well. If all Democrats voted for a $15 minimum wage, that mean about 25% of Trump voters also voted for a $15 minimum wage. I wouldn’t be surprised if 25% of people that vote for Trump are also pro-choice. The abortion access amendment also has two more positives for it that I see as well. It will also be running in tandem with a popular amendment, legalization of recreational marijuana. I imagine this will turn out voters that would vote yes on both. Also, as of right now, the pro-choice campaign is out raising the anti-choice campaign by a bunch. As in there currently isn’t a campaign against the amendment and the pro-choice side has raised $18 million so far. It’ll be interesting to see if there is a serious campaign against the amendment and how much the raise, but the campaign for the amendment has deep pocket backers. I don’t think it’s guaranteed to pass, but I’d say it’s more likely than not that it passes.
Considering what happened when the voters decided to give back voting rights to felons, I imagine if this passes, the state legislature will just redefine abortion and continue steamrolling their far-right ideology against the voters wishes. There are far too many far-right voters here now to turn the state anything but deeper red for now.
I am very confident that this will turn Florida blue. Even in Kansas, preserving abortion rights won by 20 points after our hypercorrupt SCOTUS destroyed settled law with Dobbs. Turnout was very high. I would imagine that a huge number of furious Floridians will show up at the ballot box to overturn the current Midwive’s Tale abomination, and I don’t think they will spend the rest of their time in the ballot box voting for the Tale makers.
Trump is winning Florida in polls by [quite a wide margin](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/florida/trump-vs-biden)
That’s actually closer than I thought they’d be. I figured with DeSantis/Rubio taking the state by 20 and the state only getting redder since that he wouldn’t have any polls still with Biden less than 10 points behind him.
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Yeah I knew he wasn’t going to hit midterm 20 point levels, but I figured consistently leading by 10 points or more for Trump would be the norm in Florida. Surprised to still see it’s consistently in the single digit margins for him in pretty inline with the aggregate margins in Nevada and Georgia.
> I am very confident that this will turn Florida blue. Depends on what Cubans think about abortion access. They tend to be very anti-socialist and GOP has them convinced Democrats (a right wing party) are socialist. Will abortion be able to overcome that?
Cubans are 7% of the vote in Florida and they do not vote as a block in the same way that, say, black voters do. Republicans might win 60-65% of them. The difference between breaking even with Cubans and losing them by 15% is 0.6% of the overall result. Yes, that's enough to swing an election, but it's not enough to justify focusing on the Cuban electorate at the expense of pursuing, say, higher black turnout, or targeting Puerto Ricans or other Latinos that might be more sympathetic to Dems. tl;dr Cubans are just white people at this point and we should stop caring about them as a special interest group. Yeah, Janet Reno and Elian Gonzalez wound up saddling us with George W. Bush. It's a shame, but it's in the past - it was *24 years ago.* That is the gap between Carter taking office and Bush taking office. The children of the Cubans who decided the 2000 election are now voters and they barely even consider themselves "Hispanic." They're just white people from Florida.
I mean, Reno didn't help, but Katherine Harris, Governor Jeb Bush's secretary of state, illegally disenfranchised thousands of black likely dem voters weeks before the election. It was stolen.
Didn't mean to imply otherwise. Still, just about any demographic you can mention swinging towards Gore by literally 1000 votes changes everything, and that saga likely swung tens of thousands. I mean, 2000 is just an incredible outlier in every way imaginable. But yeah, absolutely stolen. Jeb Bush purging the voter rolls is a crime against democracy itself, before you even get into the post-election theft.
*Venezuelans fresh from Caracas consider themselves “white” in Florida too*. 🙄 It’s absurd but yeah, collegeless white vs collegeless Hispanic male = same voter.
Some of them are also just outright Fascist, especially the ones who try to claim that Cuba was "just fine" before Castro took over. Granted, the key word here is "some." Also, no, I do not think it will. Heck, I would be surprised if Florida would turn Blue over abortion. The GOP have a tight grip here, and the state Democratic Party is notoriously inept.
> especially the ones who try to claim that Cuba was "just fine" before Castro took over Castro took over in 1959, so these would (largely) just be people who have ancestry in Cuba or left when they were children and have no idea how brutal Batista was. Castro obviously did not rule as some benevolent dictator, but Cuba was not "just fine" before the revolution. And, agreed on this not turning the state blue. I lived in Maine during a long stretch where our state Democratic party was inept, and we lost some very winnable races because of that.
Doesn’t the population of Florida skew older? I doubt that there are enough women of child bearing age to tip Florida blue to be honest. I would just consider it a red state and move on to other areas.
Why wouldn’t older women care? They have daughters, granddaughters and memories
Not so sure. Older hear. My wife and all her friends grew up when Roe was passed. They feel very very strongly about no man controlling their bodies. Even while she and most of them would not get an abortion, the thought that men can dictate their choice is abhorrent.
March polling has Trump ahead by 7 points in Florida. I'm sure abortion will get some extra voters to cast their ballot but only a portion of those will switch to Biden. The GOP's budget that wants to cut social security by $1.5 trillion, increasing retirement age, and cutting disability should be plastered on every billboard and tv/radio station. That could move a huge chunk of voters from GOP to Dem. 28% of Floridians are 60+
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Yeah that’s what Alabama thought
If there’s one thing I know, it’s that Florida will always find a way to fuck things up.
Not right away. It gives Democrats there a fighting chance to overcome some of the gerrymandering and voter suppression though which could eventually lead to more positive changes
20 / 27 Florida house reps, both senators, the governor, and a supermajority in both houses of state government are republicans. 28/40 and 84/120. Florida isn’t turning blue.
Have you heard of elections?
I have, but people are delusional if they think a state that far red is going blue anytime soon. Like in time California will go red, in a long time, things change. But you don’t go from hard red to blue, don’t be silly about it. Don’t sound like that group that has been claiming Texas is about to go blue for the last twenty years.
Obama won FL not long ago. When's the last time GOP won in CA, Regan? GA also went from hard red to blue last election and they've maintained both Senate seats.
I think another point, too, is Flordia dems lost a lot of local elections last year. Completely turning city goverments/County ones to Republicans. Not to mention, the Florida State Democratic party is dysfunctional and seems to be infighting amongst themselves over strategy with the controlling faction trying to run Republican-lite canidates and the more left to center faction wanting to focus on working rights and abortion.
> people are delusional if they think a state that far red is going blue anytime soon. I agree Florida isn't lonely to go blue anytime soon, but "their current state government isn't blue" doesn't mean much.
Obviously, yes. The Republicans constantly alluding to further attacks on personal freedom in contraception, marriage, sexuality and general health makes this and IVF a bellwether for everyone. edit: did you mean the state legislature turning blue or the state voting for Biden in November?
No, you greatly underestimate how pro-life even youngish women are south of the bible-belt, and everyone over 55 is either ambivalent or pro-life as well. Their population is growing older, rapidly, and they didn't have a large white-collar base as it was.
Compared to Kansas, where preserving abortion rights, won by 20%?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/election-results/2022/kansas/ 3 statewide races went R, the Gov barely squeaked through and she was a beloved incumbent, and the house went 3/4, all incumbents kept their seats. You're thinking the primary election, where motivated women charged the turnout. The general is different, especially given Florida makes literally every nursing home a polling station, or just busses them to the polls.
I think you are the one confused. Florida grew rapidly and had a rapid exodus. Women in the south struggle to get affordable healthcare and are way more pro choice than pro birth
>Women in the south struggle to get affordable healthcare and are way more pro choice than pro birth My experience was the opposite, women there were very pro-life because the church was a palpable and dominating force in society. I'd love to hear that's changed, I'd just be surprised, it was a borderline reign of terror for women in the South.
Georgia was Blue in 2020. How long ago were you in the south?
Georgia went blue in 3 statewide races in 2020 due to terrible R candidates. Meanwhile, the 2022 statewide races saw Stacey Abrams and Bee Nguyen get blown out in the gubernatorial (8.5 points) and SoS (10 points) races, Carr cruised to a 6 point win over Jordan in the AG race, etc. The only statewide Democratic win in 2022 was Warnock, and even he lost over 300k voters compared to the runoff for that seat in early 2021. 2020 was at major fluke at this point, not an indication that the state is actually blue in any way.
Warnock won 3 times, how is that a fluke? Imagine a candidate like Obama instead of Biden this year, it wouldn't even be close in GA.
Warnock was in my district and again, Atlanta is a huge multicultural city, as is Savannah, Columbus and Augusta. Don’t underestimate the amount of Democrats working hard to get more canvassing and voters to the polls. It’s difficult because we had our SOS overseeing his on election to be Governor. The gerrymandering here is insane and it’s hard work to eradicate.
Managed to escape in 99, but Georgia was 50 years ahead of the rest of the south and has been forever. Talk to me in 2070.
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They still got abortion regulations passed afterwords, though. In fact, both Georgia and NC, now purple states, got abortion laws passed quicker than South Carolina, a staunchly Republican state.
They did. They had trigger laws on the books and Georgia is losing major statewide money from businesses that won’t come to Georgia over it. If you don’t think losing revenues aren’t important enough to make a difference in upcoming elections I don’t know what to tell you. It’s a motivator stronger than anything the people who live here could produce. We the citizens didn’t get a say or the ability to vote for the law changes, but cities recognize when they lose multi million dollar revenue because of this. I am hoping that helps push the state to put it on the ballot.
Local government here in Mason, Ohio pulled a stunt calling us a “pro life sanctuary city.” It made national news. Such an embarrassment. Joke was on the city council. Procter & Gamble employs 7000 people in this town. They had our useless pro life mayor and most of the right leaning council replaced at the next election with business friendly, centered moderates funded by P&G. Businesses control most of this… at least in districts where there are large business interests.
Where did you live? I live in Atlanta and could say I have the exact opposite experience to you
Oh yeah, Atlanta is lovely. Almost like it escaped the curse of the south. I lived throughout tennessee. The anger was palpable, and always there. But then again Georgia actually moved past most of the worst of Jim crow. They don't consider the confederacy their proudest moment. But tennessee is different, they still do identify with that era and don't think they did anything wrong. It is a proud heritage to them. The south isn't a region, it's a culture, and I'm not suggesting it needs to be destroyed. But there is a blindness to the dark events in the past that needs to end. Germantown TN is a city that was founded immediately after segregation, the white population of Memphis picked up and moved 15 miles east through wheat fields out of spite. That's just sad.
I think it'll make headways towards making it a swing state again. Honestly, I thought it would happen in a decade or so. But the Republicans here got high on their supply. We need 60 percent of the vote, so hopefully that'll happen on both counts. If I didn't live here I'd probably be more optimistic, but since I do, I'm just kinda holding my breath lol Either way we're leaving this state but I'd like the next two years to not be terrible policy wise.
No, but splitting the ticket will be more popular this year. I think the measure will pass but Republicans will carry the day with seats and electors.
> can this help Biden turn Florida blue in November? i don't think so. i can see folks voting in favor of the ballot measure while still voting Rep. i don't see FL going blue this cycle.
No way. Source: Lived in FL for a few years. Seriously, though. Florida has jumped on the insane Trump train that's rolling off a cliff and it ain't coming back any time soon. Demographics play a big role and the majority of people moving to FL vote red without a second thought.
Arguably the biggest liability Biden has this election is with base turnout. Too many of his 2020 supporters are dissatisfied with his term, and/or outraged about Gaza. That being said, Trump being as polarizing as he is makes it a very tall lift to convince them to vote for him instead. For the vast majority of unhappy 2020 Biden voters, those who can't bring themselves or aren't motivated to vote for Biden again will either stay at home or will vote third-party. This referendum significantly helps with the first group. We have seen abortion rights in isolation be a very powerful Dem motivator - there is every reason to believe that this will pull those unhappy supporters to the polls just to vote in favor of abortion rights. They will still have the third-party option at the top of the ticket of course, but for those who still weakly favor Biden over the alternatives, they will sigh and pull the lever for him, just because they were already there. Given the abortion question, it is implausible that those supporters will vote for Trump, reluctantly or otherwise. Biden's campaign will invest considerable resources into reminding voters that it is because of Trump's term this law and referendum are actual issues now. That all being said...while it helps Biden, it might not be enough to actually win Florida for him (or the Senate candidate). Dems lost very high turnout races in 2018 and 2020 in Florida, and that's before DeSantis went all in on making Florida as repulsive to left-leaning voters/appealing to right-leaning ones as possible. Dems will benefit from the turnout bandage, but they would also need voters to consider on which side of the referendum Trump and Scott are, and decide they can't support people who don't agree with them on such an important question. That's certainly possible, but by no means a sure thing.
As a Floridian, I doubt it. Being a democrat, let alone a progressive, is very isolating here. But hey, I’d love to be surprised.
It’s going to take the independent female voters to come out in droves to make Florida blue . Everyone else seems to have made up their minds already .
Florida Democrats have a bad track record of capitalizing on ballot measures that they should be able to tie themselves to easily. 2018 had a felon voting rights restoration ballot measure that passed with 65% of the vote, the gubernatorial race that year was down to less that 1% of a difference between DeSantis and the Dem running against him. 2020 had a ballot measure to raise the minimum wage that passed with 60% of the vote, Trump ended up carrying the state by a bit over 3% and House election votes statewide were won by Republicans by a hair over 5%. Now, *maybe* a reproductive rights ballot measure plus the marijuana ballot measure are going to help with turnout of voters who are likely Dem but would otherwise be unlikely to vote, but the other way of looking at it is that voters who are turned off by the GOP’s stance on abortion are going to feel less hesitant to vote for them if they’re able to vote in favor of reproductive rights on the same ballot. FL Dems would need to really hammer home that Republicans are going to try and legislate around any ballot measure results that they don’t like, just like they did with felon voting rights restoration. Personally, I don’t have much faith in FL Dems being able to do that well though. They’re among the worst run statewide parties in the country. Certainly the worst run statewide party in a potentially viable state.
It will help divert Republican money to Florida. They will have to defend the ban on abortion.
Young people will turn out for this, and pot. Trump wont lose florida because it is his home state. Why has no one mentioned this?
Not hardly. For some reason people believe that pro choice people only vote blue. This is not the case. A great many pro choice people are Republicans who support abortion however with restrictions such as a 16 week ban etc.
The whole idea to allow an abortion based on a certain number of weeks is insane to me. What's the difference between 16 weeks and 17 weeks gestation? Really, nothing. It also makes no consideration if the fetus is unviable after 6 or 16 weeks. Will Women suffer with a dying fetus in their body because it's past the date of abortion? Roe solved all these problems by saying abortions are allowed up to the moment of viability (which is what the 16week ban tries to do, but fails). What's funny to me is there could be situations where a 16week old fetus is viable per the DR, and under ROE they wouldn't get an abortion.. but this one-size-fits-all- 16 week ban they would. I would be very grateful to hear from someone convinced a 16week ban is right for all American women, and how you address situations where a fetus is unviable outside the ban.
Of course I can't speak for everyone's opinions on the subject, but, in general, 16 weeks is not about fetuses with medical issues or that are not viable, or medical issues with the person pregnant, but about abortions for other reasons. It's fair to say that a majority of Americans feel that abortions should be permitted in cases of medical complications. That should be between a doctor and their patient. What complications and complications to who is where you have a lot of variance. But where abortions are done for pregnancies that are unwanted (differing here from done for medical reasons), a lot of people think this should be limited to the period before the fetus can reliably survive outside of the womb. That also gives the person a reasonable amount of time to realize they are pregnant and make a decision regarding the pregnancy. Just like there is a very small vocal minority of people who feel that all abortions should be against the law, and a larger but still minority group that feel that abortions should only be permitted under extreme medical circumstances, it's also a small amount of Americans that feel abortions for any reason (including unwanted pregnancies) should be legal across the board until birth. 16 weeks is a comfortable medium between the two extremes, and something many pro-choice supporters and a few pro-birth advocates can live with, even if they are not happy about it.
Thank you so much for your response. So it IS about viability for you as well. I'm very much pro choice and I agree with the redline of viability, too. But it begs the question why throw out ROE when the law was written to permit abortions before viability and allowed the DR to determine that. The viability date can be different from fetus to fetus. I feel that people have the misconception that ROE allowed Women to abort healthy fetuses after viability..and that was as illegal then as it is now. This 16 week law does nothing to address complications after the 16 week deadline, and because of that it fails. Would you vote to reenact the law of ROE over this 16 week abortion law?
When all the votes are tallied in November, more than likely it will remain red at least at the federal level. This could potentially help certain congressional/state races. What it will do at the presidential level, though, is likely force the Trump campaign to spend money it is already struggling to raise to defend what should be a safe red state. Money that could otherwise be going to Michigan/PA/AZ/GA. So in that sense it helps Democrats.
# Will abortion on the ballot in Florida in November help turn it blue? ________ If it does, it will probably revert to the mean in 2026.
Yep. This here is the answer. Kansas voters also rejected an abortion ban, and then went right back to voting ruby red.
Google: Kansas governor.
Google: Kansas state senate, Kansas senators, Kansas state congress, Kansas congressmen Governors are a weird office in a lot of states that are often not in line with the general populace of the state. Kansas has a democratic governor, yes. But literally the entirety of their representation at the federal and state level is blood red. Mass had a republican governor for a long time, but no one was under the delusion that Mass was a red state.
Here’s an hot take: it will help Republicans. I’m not talking about those who are very religious and anti abortion to begin with. I think it could allow swing voters who might have registered their discontent with the courts recent ruling to continue to vote for Republicans but vote for the amendment. It doesn’t make much sense long term (of course the Republicans are going to try their best to put further restrictions on abortion in place). It provides an outlet that could have otherwise gone towards keeping certain segments home or voting Democrat.
No, Floridians have a self-harm fetish no matter how they vote. There are so many residents who truly have no interest in how the state is governed as long as the weather is nice and you can still drink on the beach.
Will it flip FL blue probably not but it will certainly help for house races.
I don't think so..the average American is notorious for making decisions on emotional feelings. The culture war has a lot of people outraged and feeling like they are actual soldiers in a make-believe war. People will give up their rights if they feel like they can gain nobility and purpose.
In my opinion, no.. Florida is not in play in 2024, in a race of Trump vs Biden Trump wins Florida every time that said, it could help flip a few House districts, possibly.
On the other hand, these ballot measures could benefit Republicans as independents and more traditional, Reaganite Conservatives could vote in favor of abortion while still voting for Republicans across the ballot, knowing that their core priorities will be more likely to be fulfilled by Republicans while removing the wildcard of how the state will interfere with reproductive care.
It's far from certain that this will guarantee dems are competitive in Florida. The Florida Democratic Party is notoriously incompetent on the level of Michigan Republicans and very well may find a way to blow it. What this will do instead is force dems to divert resources to Florida to help the enshrine abortion in the state constitution that may be more effectively spent in other states to help Biden win the presidency or the Dems keep the Senate, especially when the bar to get it passed is really high at 60%. There's no guarantee of the overlap either between the people voting in favor of the ballot measures and people supporting Biden. In 2018, the ballot measure to restore voting rights to felons passed, hitting 64% support, but DeSantis eked out a victory to win his first term in office, Rick Scott beat incumbent Bill Nelson to win a Senate seat in what was otherwise a Democratic wave year across the country. I don't think this ballot measure will help Biden's chances significantly, and it may even hurt them nationally depending on resource, labor, and campaign distribution Biden devotes to Florida unless that investment comes with a dramatic overhaul of the state party and a rallying figure capable of organizing effectively like Stacey Abrams or Beto O'Rourke show up and even that might only pay dividends in future elections. It's certainly possible, but it's still a real uphill battle.
Not sure if it will be enough to flip the state presidentially (Trump is the ultimate FloridaMan, after all), but it will certainly help in House races and in the Senate. Rick Scott is not terribly popular and is running against a former Congresswoman from South Florida who is.
I don't know if that will be enough at the statewide level. It should help Democrats in close House races, but I don't know how many there may be. The Florida Democratic Party has fallen apart in the last several years lacking good leadership and organization. I have my doubts they'll be able to turn things around entirely this cycle, but maybe the fact that they've been able to get these initiatives on the ballot is a good sign.
Will it help at the margins? Absolutely Will it turn the state blue? Absolutely not
What are the chances? Hopefully the abortion amendment will help bring out the women and the marijuana amendment will help bring out the young people. I'd say there is a chance.
The Florida legislature better come up with some new voter suppression laws between now and election day or the GOP is in trouble.
Florida Democrats have a bad track record of capitalizing on ballot measures that they should be able to tie themselves to easily. 2018 had a felon voting rights restoration ballot measure that passed with 65% of the vote, the gubernatorial race that year was down to less that 1% of a difference between DeSantis and the Dem running against him. 2020 had a ballot measure to raise the minimum wage that passed with 60% of the vote, Trump ended up carrying the state by a bit over 3% and House election votes statewide were won by Republicans by a hair over 5%. Now, *maybe* a reproductive rights ballot measure plus the marijuana ballot measure are going to help with turnout of voters who are likely Dem but would otherwise be unlikely to vote, but the other way of looking at it is that voters who are turned off by the GOP’s stance on abortion are going to feel less hesitant to vote for them if they’re able to vote in favor of reproductive rights on the same ballot. FL Dems would need to really hammer home that Republicans are going to try and legislate around any ballot measure results that they don’t like, just like they did with felon voting rights restoration. Personally, I don’t have much faith in FL Dems being able to do that well though. They’re among the worst run statewide parties in the country. Certainly the worst run statewide party in a potentially viable state.
It wont turn blue, certainly not in 2024, that doesn't just happen overnight especially in a state that took a sharp turn to the right the past 8(?) years. At best it will make the state less purplish red. But it does give the dems some motivation to show up to the polls and may help in downballot races. They shouldn't overconfidently assume that they can flip the state blue because thats a bit naive, but with a not so popular senator up for reelection and 2 left leaning policies on the ballot they can at least slow down the right wing spread if they carefully play their cards right. The statewide dems already fumbled badly in 2018, and hit rock bottom in 2022, maybe 2024 can be a fresh start for them.
The people of Florida are stupid. VERY stupid. It's hard to imagine that the women living there are smart enough to vote in favor of controlling their own bodies, but I hope they prove me wrong.
No. If Florida turns blue, it would mean a Biden victory by a large margin on a national level, and that's not going to happen. It will be close either way which means Florida will remain red. The majority of people may not favor an abortion ban, but among the ones who would be willing to decide their vote on a general election on that issue, the vast majority were already voting democrat.
Wow, I’m so burned out from politics. Being that I have a lot of women in my life I think every woman should have access to free abortions.
It's hard to say, Florida has been sliding right for a while now, but there seems to be a split about abortion in the republican party. Non religious Republicans are increasingly starting to lighten up on the issue. The type of Republican who really wants abortion banned are the protestant evangelicals, not the trade worker who votes red because he wants lower taxes and doesn't like gun control. I think the real issue lies in the fact the most wealthy and powerful Republican base are the evangelicals so that steers politicians to advocate for anti abortion policies they may not even believe in.
>can this help Biden turn Florida blue in November? Only if Trump and/or GOP members ramp up the rhetoric of a national abortion ban. Outside of that I find it difficult to believe Biden winning Florida. Anecdotally I know many people who are moving to Florida to escape Democrat policies (i.e. NY, NJ, CA). And the biggest voting demographic moving there are only caring about short gains.....because they're gonna die soonish.
I’m a republican and will be voting FOR abortion rights. Fighting over this is stupid. It affects no one except the person doing one. My wife wouldnt do it and i dont support it but who the fuck am i to tell someone else not to?
Measures in Florida need 60% to pass. I seriously doubt this measure has 60% support in Florida. Keep in mind the California measure passed with 66% and the Ohio and Michigan measures both got 56%. The measure will get more than 50% but I seriously doubt it’ll perform 4 points better than it did in Michigan. Especially given how Florida has lots of Catholic Hispanics who aren’t big on abortion. Right now I think it’ll fall a hair short of 60%. I also doubt Florida is in play for the Democrats, being on a losing streak doesn’t usually bode well for a party’s turnout. Republicans suffer from the same thing in PA and Michigan.
the majority of hispanic catholics nationwide actually [support](https://www.ncronline.org/news/politics/new-survey-found-latino-catholics-overwhelmingly-support-abortion-rights-heres-why) abortion. in florida specifically, it’s is a little more [even](https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/religious-landscape-study/compare/views-about-abortion/by/racial-and-ethnic-composition/among/state/florida/) at 49% of latinos supporting abortion. the thing about michigan and california is that people actually expected those measures to pass, so voter turnout may not be as high. keep in mind that kansas is a republican stronghold (albeit with a democratic governor), and it was the first state to vote on and keep abortion rights by a 58% vote. 60% is a very high threshold, but voter turnout i assume will be much higher considering the stakes.
Not really. Florida has such supreme voter suppression efforts that there really is no margin through which blue areas can bridge the gap. People would have to line up and be willing to wait in line passed election day in order for blue areas to get all of their voters to the polls. 1 voter location with 3 machines for a million people in any blue area, 100 voter machines and polling places in a red area with 10k people ensures that's its easy for someone to vote red, and a multi day ordeal to vote blue. No motivated base can really overcome that. Especially if they pull a Texas and make it so you can't bring food and water to someone in line.
No. There are more conservatives than liberals and progressives in Florida, and they won't be lacking enthusiasm to return their criminal leader (and in-state celebrity) back to the White House.
Not at all. The abortion protection might pass depending on how far it goes but Florida will still vote for Republicans.