Depends if the odds imply that there is value. If odds reflect a 75% chance of it occuring but stats show an 85% chance then of course i will take it. If it was the other way around then its still likely to occur but no value in it so would pass on the bet.
I see this kind of comment a lot - whilst it makes sense how you actually go about finding the stats to know how likely it is to happen baffles me
For example Arsenal play Everton today which I like for BTTS - how the hell can I work out what the percentage of it hitting is?
And how do you work out what the percentage of of it occurring based on the odds to know whether it’s a +EV bet
Gather some relevant statistics and build a logistic regression model. The relevant statistics though, and where to get them. That's the secret sauce, i doubt people are going to be willing to disclose that.
Most people apply mathematical models using current season stats (sometime include previous season stats) etc. They can be very simple or very complex. Many of them use python or other coding languages to process the statistics. You won't really find anyone that would share a profitable model for obvious reasons, but you might find people with models sharing some of their tips.
> And how do you work out what the percentage of of it occurring based on the odds to know whether it’s a +EV bet
So that's 100 ÷ the decimal odds, this gives you a percentage often referred to as the implied probability.
Look for games where both teams that are forced to go out and try to win. Like for today that would be Augsburg - Hoffenheim.. they are both chasing important goals. If both teams have pretty terrible defences then BTTS is very likely. Look for games where both teams have nothing to play for and both teams have decent attacks. Like Real Sociedad - Real Betis which was played on Friday. If both teams have well above average attacks and their defences are okay but not too good then BTTS is likely to happen. Also check the league, in some leagues it’s easier for both teams to score goals than others. Check if it’s a derby too but be careful with derbies. They either see excess goals or barely any.
The odds rarely reflect the probabilities when it comes to BTTS but you still need to pay attention to the odds to see what the bookies think. Generally however if they many people go for btts yes or btts no the odds will shift significantly and the bookies will hedge their bets. Some games attract this kind of a scenario like Arsenal - Chelsea which ended 2-0 but a lot of people though both teams would score. Same for Tottenham- Man Utd which ended 0-1. Don’t trust the odds, trust your research.
I generally only do BTTS when it's top teams playing each other and calling a win is a bit tricky. Generally, even with top scoring teams, you can normally get BTTS at 1/2 or higher odds for an accumulator.
If it's a BTTS double/treble then I normally look for odds of evens-ish
I feel BTTS works better inplay in terms of odds unless the teams you are betting on are regularly scoring early. You are probably missing out on 10-20% of the odds by missing the best lines anyway. Regularly I see people taking 1.8 for lines which were 2, then dribbling down to 1.68-1.71 after the "tipsters" start spamming it.
Yes, there's several ways you can go about it with inplays though. Most popular being BTTS in X half or making a list of expected BTTS games and waiting for X odds to be available.
It seems to me you are only considering BTTS to mean BTTS yes. It's a two sided market. Only considering one side of what is a relatively high margin market on average, is not smart
But if you target a specific league and keep track of the BTTS YES and BTTS NO data you will get all the answers you are asking when it comes to when it may be right time to call the bet.
What do you get that 1,50 number from ? If you have an overall view of the bets perhaps you figure out that its more effective to bet from 1,67 and better (just pick a random number) or betting BTTS NO when its better than 2,10.
Check all options on the same market and see what is most profitable.
I've seen it lower around 1.4 an personally wouldn't go lower than 1.7 unless its guaranteed then I'd go to 1.6 but never lower as anything lower I'd look at different bets for higher odds maybe a o2.5 goals bet?
Depends if the odds imply that there is value. If odds reflect a 75% chance of it occuring but stats show an 85% chance then of course i will take it. If it was the other way around then its still likely to occur but no value in it so would pass on the bet.
I see this kind of comment a lot - whilst it makes sense how you actually go about finding the stats to know how likely it is to happen baffles me For example Arsenal play Everton today which I like for BTTS - how the hell can I work out what the percentage of it hitting is? And how do you work out what the percentage of of it occurring based on the odds to know whether it’s a +EV bet
Gather some relevant statistics and build a logistic regression model. The relevant statistics though, and where to get them. That's the secret sauce, i doubt people are going to be willing to disclose that.
Most people apply mathematical models using current season stats (sometime include previous season stats) etc. They can be very simple or very complex. Many of them use python or other coding languages to process the statistics. You won't really find anyone that would share a profitable model for obvious reasons, but you might find people with models sharing some of their tips.
> And how do you work out what the percentage of of it occurring based on the odds to know whether it’s a +EV bet So that's 100 ÷ the decimal odds, this gives you a percentage often referred to as the implied probability.
Look for games where both teams that are forced to go out and try to win. Like for today that would be Augsburg - Hoffenheim.. they are both chasing important goals. If both teams have pretty terrible defences then BTTS is very likely. Look for games where both teams have nothing to play for and both teams have decent attacks. Like Real Sociedad - Real Betis which was played on Friday. If both teams have well above average attacks and their defences are okay but not too good then BTTS is likely to happen. Also check the league, in some leagues it’s easier for both teams to score goals than others. Check if it’s a derby too but be careful with derbies. They either see excess goals or barely any. The odds rarely reflect the probabilities when it comes to BTTS but you still need to pay attention to the odds to see what the bookies think. Generally however if they many people go for btts yes or btts no the odds will shift significantly and the bookies will hedge their bets. Some games attract this kind of a scenario like Arsenal - Chelsea which ended 2-0 but a lot of people though both teams would score. Same for Tottenham- Man Utd which ended 0-1. Don’t trust the odds, trust your research.
I generally only do BTTS when it's top teams playing each other and calling a win is a bit tricky. Generally, even with top scoring teams, you can normally get BTTS at 1/2 or higher odds for an accumulator. If it's a BTTS double/treble then I normally look for odds of evens-ish
I feel BTTS works better inplay in terms of odds unless the teams you are betting on are regularly scoring early. You are probably missing out on 10-20% of the odds by missing the best lines anyway. Regularly I see people taking 1.8 for lines which were 2, then dribbling down to 1.68-1.71 after the "tipsters" start spamming it.
Yeah I guess the difficulty is just waiting and waiting for odds to get better and then one side scores
Yes, there's several ways you can go about it with inplays though. Most popular being BTTS in X half or making a list of expected BTTS games and waiting for X odds to be available.
I dont bet based on the odds, theyre made to entice or discourage you. Bet on it if you think both teams are gonna score
2.00 for me. If it's a Barcelona vs Real Madrid type massive game, then I might go in at 1.80 but 99% of the time, I go in at 2.00 odds minimum
It seems to me you are only considering BTTS to mean BTTS yes. It's a two sided market. Only considering one side of what is a relatively high margin market on average, is not smart
But if you target a specific league and keep track of the BTTS YES and BTTS NO data you will get all the answers you are asking when it comes to when it may be right time to call the bet. What do you get that 1,50 number from ? If you have an overall view of the bets perhaps you figure out that its more effective to bet from 1,67 and better (just pick a random number) or betting BTTS NO when its better than 2,10. Check all options on the same market and see what is most profitable.
I do 1.6 in most cases, it's always my base filter especially on footystats or btf, but in some cases I do 1.5
I've seen it lower around 1.4 an personally wouldn't go lower than 1.7 unless its guaranteed then I'd go to 1.6 but never lower as anything lower I'd look at different bets for higher odds maybe a o2.5 goals bet?
[удалено]
degen alert