im a wierdo- i bet on draws
its the only 1x2 i bet on. i have written software to predict winning draws. I only bet on draws as i have a 75% strike rate and with odds of 3.4+ its the only thing thats worthwhile.
I bet singles on exchange
For tonight-
**2020-10-20 19:00 Doncaster Ipswich 3.2**
**2020-10-20 19:00 Blackpool Charlton 3.4**
*edit - no - you cant access the software*
*edit - two strange games tonight- evens out in the long run*
Why would you brag about having written a software that predicts winning draws only to warn people they cant access it?
In my country, that has a name...
I was answering OPs question.
You can build and write software yourself just like I did.
I don’t understand your argument, Renaissance tech doesn’t give away its software for free.
Every time I mention it I get DMs and chat requests people asking me can they have access to it- hopefully the edit will avoid it
I like betting on draws and actually they have been the most profitable bet type for me (high odds) and I don't consider myself a psychopath. My strategy is not too complicated - look into leagues and teams for which draws are abundant. This is usually translated in lower odds, but with some reasoning and refinement you can still be successful. Just one example from Egypt - the team Smouha have 14 draws away out of 17 games, so even though the odds were below 3 for most games, you could still make good earnings. I haven't written the software for this yet, but the human eye can also spot the patterns in this case.
For Premier League it's a bit different - this is the most gambled upon league and there are a lot of "for fun" bets, so the odds are usually skewed against the draw, which opens some good opportunities for value draw bets. I would recommend reading some of mathematician David Sumpter's articles where he touches upon this topic. I guess his model is another one to break down now (no draws in the first two rounds), but definitely some interesting insights.
I think the draws are high historically, because bookies cannot predict those easily.
That's, for me, the single most unique reason as to why draw odds are always above 2.00 pre-match ANY GAME.
I’m a newbie in betting, playing for fun but i can tell you that i earned most of the money from my ~200 bets on draws. Best example - when i placed 6 draws in Nations League and 5 was correct. I don’t know the name of that bet type in english but i has won the money, every draw was in other group and every bad predict is takin some money but 5 of 6 draws were valued very good. Draws are cool. I get them really often correct.
Draws are boring. Who wants to cheer for a draw?
Also, saying that any PL match has a 27.5% chance of being draw is incorrect. A match between two evenly-matches teams has a higher chance of being a draw than, say, Man City vs Fulham.
Uhhhh... I don't get your second point. For sure you can refine the model, but even if what you say is true, the odds for a draw for Man City vs Fullham will be super high. The line won't be around 27.5% because of what you said. And also fans betting the actual teams. Most likely just from the public smashing Mancs... Fullham will probably only get yolo bets or small hedge bets.
In other words, draws are probably correctly priced normally, higher for lopsided matches and lower for evenly matched teams. However, because of action on both teams, the draw odds then get boosted to attract some action.
Boosted? Bookies actively devalue the high side of an uneven match up. That is, they take a larger bookie margin on the underdog then on the favourites, which includes the draw.
Odds for EPL draws are a little higher than they have been historically, but I think it's because there are fewer draws now than there have been historically.
Recently the goals have been flying in, which make draws less likely. This has been a trend since "project restart" back in June;
In 2019/20 season, since project restart, there were 20 draws from 92 games = 21.74%
In 2020/21 season so far there have been 9 draws from 48 games = 18.75%
So overall since restart in June that's 29 draws from 140 games = 20.71%
So that's roughly 1 in 5, which would translate to "fair" odds of around 5.00
Per odds portal the average odds for a draw in EPL this season so far (48 games) works out at 4.04.
So yeah not much value there, if blind averaging is your thing.
Worth noting that the odds for Leeds to draw with Man City the other week were 6.91.... not bad if you spotted the value on that!
At this rate I'm not even sure what Mancs you're talking about but doesn't matter since I was suggesting blind draws... yeah this weekend has been lucky so far. Wouldn't say that means it's right.
Some of them we should really see coming. I stupidly bet o2.5 on Man U versus Chelsea when part of me knew they were both riding high and likely to not get any past each other. But Man City and West Ham was just ridiculous, good on anyone who'd have miraculously predicted a draw on that one but I had it on o2.5 because it's Man City.
Yes
https://ibb.co/zFDn0tg 😜
Old screenshot. Much harder to win 4-game Parlays now, on COVID soccer fully established.
These were the first games that restarted after they shut everything down. And yes I dont win those every week but I won a couple of them.
im a wierdo- i bet on draws its the only 1x2 i bet on. i have written software to predict winning draws. I only bet on draws as i have a 75% strike rate and with odds of 3.4+ its the only thing thats worthwhile. I bet singles on exchange For tonight- **2020-10-20 19:00 Doncaster Ipswich 3.2** **2020-10-20 19:00 Blackpool Charlton 3.4** *edit - no - you cant access the software* *edit - two strange games tonight- evens out in the long run*
Why would you brag about having written a software that predicts winning draws only to warn people they cant access it? In my country, that has a name...
I was answering OPs question. You can build and write software yourself just like I did. I don’t understand your argument, Renaissance tech doesn’t give away its software for free. Every time I mention it I get DMs and chat requests people asking me can they have access to it- hopefully the edit will avoid it
Did you write the software yourself..??
yes
I like betting on draws and actually they have been the most profitable bet type for me (high odds) and I don't consider myself a psychopath. My strategy is not too complicated - look into leagues and teams for which draws are abundant. This is usually translated in lower odds, but with some reasoning and refinement you can still be successful. Just one example from Egypt - the team Smouha have 14 draws away out of 17 games, so even though the odds were below 3 for most games, you could still make good earnings. I haven't written the software for this yet, but the human eye can also spot the patterns in this case. For Premier League it's a bit different - this is the most gambled upon league and there are a lot of "for fun" bets, so the odds are usually skewed against the draw, which opens some good opportunities for value draw bets. I would recommend reading some of mathematician David Sumpter's articles where he touches upon this topic. I guess his model is another one to break down now (no draws in the first two rounds), but definitely some interesting insights.
I've lost a decent amount of games because of a draw. I need to start betting on them cause I only bet with my words and it happens. ^^eventually
That's why DNB (or winner (w) as some bookies tend to call it here) is a saviour.
Higher odds than a double chance too, if I remember right? Because they're having to pay out nothing in case of a draw.
Yeah higher odds but in case of a draw odds are calculated as 1 but double chance odds don't change in an event of a draw.
I think the draws are high historically, because bookies cannot predict those easily. That's, for me, the single most unique reason as to why draw odds are always above 2.00 pre-match ANY GAME.
I’m a newbie in betting, playing for fun but i can tell you that i earned most of the money from my ~200 bets on draws. Best example - when i placed 6 draws in Nations League and 5 was correct. I don’t know the name of that bet type in english but i has won the money, every draw was in other group and every bad predict is takin some money but 5 of 6 draws were valued very good. Draws are cool. I get them really often correct.
Draws are boring. Who wants to cheer for a draw? Also, saying that any PL match has a 27.5% chance of being draw is incorrect. A match between two evenly-matches teams has a higher chance of being a draw than, say, Man City vs Fulham.
Uhhhh... I don't get your second point. For sure you can refine the model, but even if what you say is true, the odds for a draw for Man City vs Fullham will be super high. The line won't be around 27.5% because of what you said. And also fans betting the actual teams. Most likely just from the public smashing Mancs... Fullham will probably only get yolo bets or small hedge bets. In other words, draws are probably correctly priced normally, higher for lopsided matches and lower for evenly matched teams. However, because of action on both teams, the draw odds then get boosted to attract some action.
Boosted? Bookies actively devalue the high side of an uneven match up. That is, they take a larger bookie margin on the underdog then on the favourites, which includes the draw.
Yes
Odds for EPL draws are a little higher than they have been historically, but I think it's because there are fewer draws now than there have been historically. Recently the goals have been flying in, which make draws less likely. This has been a trend since "project restart" back in June; In 2019/20 season, since project restart, there were 20 draws from 92 games = 21.74% In 2020/21 season so far there have been 9 draws from 48 games = 18.75% So overall since restart in June that's 29 draws from 140 games = 20.71% So that's roughly 1 in 5, which would translate to "fair" odds of around 5.00 Per odds portal the average odds for a draw in EPL this season so far (48 games) works out at 4.04. So yeah not much value there, if blind averaging is your thing. Worth noting that the odds for Leeds to draw with Man City the other week were 6.91.... not bad if you spotted the value on that!
Betting draws is just too nerve racking, my heart can't take it.
So maybe we should review this since Mancs has blown up my bankroll many times now
At this rate I'm not even sure what Mancs you're talking about but doesn't matter since I was suggesting blind draws... yeah this weekend has been lucky so far. Wouldn't say that means it's right.
Some of them we should really see coming. I stupidly bet o2.5 on Man U versus Chelsea when part of me knew they were both riding high and likely to not get any past each other. But Man City and West Ham was just ridiculous, good on anyone who'd have miraculously predicted a draw on that one but I had it on o2.5 because it's Man City.