Problem is he is trying to do full autonomy with JUST visual & vibrational sensors. At best it will drive as well as an alert human, who is also limited to visual and vibrational sensors.
Bring back the radar & add lidar, then it will work BETTER than humans.
> ring back the radar & add lidar, then it will work BETTER than humans.
While that would obviously fix it, I actually think his system would work if he were just willing to install sensors in places that unfortunately make it look less sleek.
I feel like it's just Vegas all over again. Just a ridiculous compromise that cost lots of money and impressed nobody.
Again, I agree a roof-mounted LIDAR system is obviously a better choice than what I'm saying, especially considering that the sensors are also for mass data collection. Unfortunately,, jackass can't do that now because he doesn't have any data to train on and would need to start all over again.
He doesn't know it's a monstrosity, he's fired all the smart people too, Tesla isn't going to ever be better then they are now, their golden age is over.
I recall him throwing a brick at the cybertruck window and breaking the glass. While everyone's laughing at that, I'm wondering, "Who cares about that? How about the fact that it's so F**KING ugly?"
He could of just laughed too and be like well at least the brick still works. And the. Sell Tesla printed bricks as a further joke.
But no he had to feel tiny and make a death trap.
Can have radar and lidar without compromising aesthetics, everyone else does. Baffling Tesla thought they could create a system using only visual data.
> Can have radar and lidar without compromising aesthetics
I mostly agree. But Elon also wants the system to be cheap on a per-car basis. Think of it this way... A RADAR and LIDAR mounted on top of a 3 foot tall fixture on the roof (an extreme for example) can collect data from 360 degrees without obstructions to either sound waves or visibility. It could also be very cheaply engineered since we obviously threw aesthetics out the window. To make it aesthetic adds costs to both engineering hours to design it and in functionality. But... It would collect 360 degrees of data that could easily be trained and help in making future systems functional. No matter what, there are tradeoffs to every choice. I just feel like Elon's choice in the tradeoff sucks.
Of course it does because the decisions were made by engineers instead of the CEO. LIDAR is more reliable, but apparently they needed to cut their $2k of sensors down to $1k even if it makes it unsafe.
Is it the price of lidar that Tesla reluctant to add to Tesla? Tesla has a lot of cash. Lidar would be a welcome addition plus safety backup in case visual fails.
It’s ego.
Years ago he decided to go the vision route. LiDAR was much more expensive a few years back, bulkier, hard to procure materials for production. Now that many LiDAR companies have shouldered the cost to make it cheaper, scalable, and better performing, it would be a good time to switch over.
My opinion is that he will lose the race for autonomy unless he chooses to add LiDAR.
Perhaps he is now just playing the hand he was dealt… thinking cameras were the only viable path and now that LiDAR is cheap, not tipping the competition until he buys a company on the cheap.
I've noticed that Musk's decision-making/problem-solving has the tendency to go like this:
1. Look at the list of constraints causing a problem
2. Identify whether any constraints can be eliminated or substituted.
3. Eliminate or substitute them, even if it is by unconventional means, or goes against conventional wisdom.
It's not actually a bad way to solve problems, but he'll green light things that most companies or engineers would not. Like things that would come up in a brainstorm and everybody says, haha, if only we could do that but we can't because it would XYZ. Musk hears this and says, F conventional wisdom. DO IT.
Sometimes this approach works to discover radical solutions held back by conventional wisdom. However, it also sometimes reveals why the conventional wisdom exists in the first place.
Examples:
* "Boss, the Model 3 production ramp is constrained by factory space. It will take 2 years to build out another factory shell." Musk: "F building walls, put up a TENT."
* "Boss, the Model 3 production ramp is constrained by lack of part X and the supplier can't make more and it would take a year to spin up another supplier." MUSK: "F that part, it's only holding stuff together, make it out of wood from Home Depot."
* "Boss, all approaches to self-driving incorporate sensor fusion between lidar, ultrasonic, radar and vision. Each of these adds cost X to the package." Musk: "F sensor fusion, humans only use two eyes."
Identify whether any constraints can be eliminated or substituted without adequate knowledge of the problem space and bully anyone who suggests otherwise.
Fuck up, find scapegoat, rehire, and engage in obfuscation.
I wouldn't invest a dime in any of these autonomous ventures. Look at Uber once they divested. It is just a capital sink with no practical path to reliable scaling. Anything useful is being parted out to automobile manufacturers where the real potential for value is. It's just the same band of rich kids playing game with VC money.
Real investors need to be very wary and not get too wrapped up in these convos.
They don't even want to spend money on the cheap ass ultra-sonics so they removed them, they won't even consider lidar right now. That's why "6 years ago he said tesla was 6 months from "full autonomy"."
Getting rid of USS's when there was a supply problem was such a stupid move. That pretty much ensures that they can't achieve FSD that will work in any weather less than perfect, whatever they do.
any engineer worth a shit is long gone - pretty sure its just principals debating the best way to implement something if they had a real engineering team. Like everything with that south african rich kid retard; its all bullshit and its bad for ya.
They can't bring that stuff back though they've already promised cars that have the crappy hardware will be self-driving.
I mean let's face it even with all the hardware bells and whistles those cars are not self-driving end of story. I agree it would be better but it is not self-driving there is no full self-driving car in the world today there's stuff that's close to that... But even they have systems for a human intervention remotely to take over. Which again I don't think Tesla even has anything like that.
> LIDAR
LIDAR is a dead end, because physics exists. LIDAR cannot penetrate water, and water routinely falls from the sky. Ask yourself - why do all the LIDAR based solutions primarily operate in the desert?
Secondary problems with LIDAR - cost prohibitive (could be overcome), ugly (could be ignored), generates too much data which pushes compute requirements up and thus eats too much power (could be overcome with time).
But the primary problem can't be overcome. You have to solve autonomy using non-LIDAR solutions and equip your cars with it in addition to LIDAR, else your fleet shuts down when there is precipitation. And if your fleet shuts down when there is precipitation, no one can count on your fleet and they won't trust it.
Or, if you can operate just fine without LIDAR, then you may as well delete LIDAR and not have all the secondary disadvantages.
This. Make the cars as safe as possible, this means using as much technology as possible. If its available we need to use it if there is a chance it could save lives down the line. Put every sensor imaginable in the car.
Well, lets fix that ( I'm Gen-X)
It's really not a law, more like a well defined observation that is now used in IC production goals
1) evaluation against the past. 2 years ago is the look back.
2) the number of circuits on a chip will double
3) the cost won't increase much
Where is this gets interesting and why I mentioned that I'm Generation X
In the late 90s early 2000s, I was hearing that the 11 nanometer scale was approaching the highest density. Somewhere around the early 2000s it was the 9 nanometer scale, and they were talking about how it couldn't get smaller because arcing between the circuits or some sort of hair would develop. At 7 nanometers even I started to get convinced that they couldn't get it down to 5, now I'm coming to understand that we are only 2 years away from 3 nanometers.
Obviously the next step in chip development, is heat dissipation, along with building the chip upwards.
I think that the Golden age of Chip design is ending. And the new age of Chip design is starting to happen. I can picture a weird cube type chip.
Obviously, because the speed in the process of artificial intelligence, and the way it can test out different theories. I could be completely wrong and they could redesign chips to be much faster in the same amount of space that it has now.
I go far back enough to remember buying bread boards, the good old 555 chip, trying to create a random number generator. I'll be honest with you, I remember red LEDs, and green LEDs. I don't think there was any other color back then
Definitely “cube type chips” being produced. Check out TSMC’s website. They have solved interconnect density to allow chip on chip stacking (among other things). Now you can stack four ICs to quadruple the compute in a given x-y.
Maybe this’ll be an unpopular take but other cars have better “self driving” functionality. The new Toyotas have a better dynamic cruise control. Idk but the teslas in my city only have cruise control on the highway. I was disappointed
there is so much variability in what constitutes a "lane". I know of several areas that have weird lane demarcation materials. Also depending on how they are detecting these, likely some temporal constraints on performance.
I recently drove a '24 Corolla and even on the furthest setting, the adaptive cruise control stayed too close to the car in front of me for my comfort. Maybe it'd be ok for city driving, but not mountain highways.
My buddies new Subaru outback has a "assisted driving" feature or called something similar. Thing pretty much drives itself. My other buddies tesla on the other hand the self driving is suuuper buggy.
I agree lol. Same with the Toyota rental I had. I pretty much let it drive itself from Atlanta to Ohio. The only annoying thing was it would beep at me if I took my hand off the wheel, but I know they do it to avoid distracted driving
This was a shocking lesson my wife and I just learned when we were shopping for a commuter car. I assumed a Model 3 would be a slam dunk for that specific need but the lane keep constantly turns off and you have to manually turn it back on. I was certain this was user error so we pulled over and Googled the issue only to find countless owners complaining about it. I don’t even understand why it’s like that or why it’s still labeled beta? We did not buy it if that’s not obvious.
Is this a terrible remix of the famous “If my grandma had wheels she would be a bicycle” tv moment that never fails to make me laugh to the point of tears?
Why is it kinda weird? You had a president who won’t release his tax returns but a private citizen not telling you his stock market positions is weird?
Nah, they still post their positions quarterly like other hedge funds. The meme is it that is actually managed by a guy. Gates theoretically could tell the guy who runs it to do individual actions but tbh I think it’s probably just the guy running it who did it.
Elon has a bit of victim complex. He thinks all these people are out to get him when they don’t even think about him at all.
Someone did the math a while back. He does about 40 interactions per hour on Twitter many days, often spread over the entire day and night. That means he either spends a ton of time on the app, has assistants engaging for him, or has a bot doing some. He says it’s all him. This is enough engagement that he can’t really be focusing on any other topic for any sustained period of time. What this also means is that Tesla is paying him roughly $1,500 per engagement on an app that doesn’t provide any profit for Tesla.
Even if he wasn’t the CEO, he still doesn’t know how to shut the fuck up. Look at Twitter, he appointed a “CEO” and i never see her in a single news story, just his dumbass writing “concerning” or “looking into it” or some stupid shit.
That’s because she’s so transparently a patsy every news source just kind of ignores her. She does get out there to say stuff but it’s like universally meaningless business speak sprinkled with hollow buzzwords. She seems to refuse to acknowledge what Twitter actually is and so every time she speaks it’s like she’s talking about something that doesn’t even exist. The statements are so obviously fictional she may as well be the CEO of pearphone from iCarly.
"We're going to double click on the blockchain AI drive this quarter to transform X into a multi-dimensional paradigm shifting cross-functional organization in keeping with modern standards and use cases"
\^ Fun drinking game: place bets on whether that's a real quote or one I made up \^
Not really the mentally stable leadership you want IMO. But I am a random on the internet and he is worth billions so you are probably right.
Also he recently went off the deep end. So the previous 9 years are kinda off the table
You don't want anyone from your lawn mower to your doctor to be influenced by anything but the job they are there to do.
Saying "well, my doctor kept me healthy this past decade" isn't quite the flex if you know that he also gets kick backs from organ donation.
He could just as easily have killed you "on accident" if the money was high enough, and the fact that there is even a 1% chance he might be influenced by something that is detrimental to you is somewhat “not what you're looking for" in a doctor (or a CEO).
Musk has overcommitted and underdelivered for years and years. Go and see when he promised a fleet of autonomous robotaxis. He said he’d have it four years ago. He’s now still years away. He’s a stock pumper.
And he’s good at it usually. The problem now are the numbers are so bad he’s can’t keep it from going down.
Hard to say at this point how much of it is just rates being high. Will be interesting to see how plays out owe the coming years.
He may be able to play where Henry Ford did 100 years ago, but this guy can’t build a quality software shop if his business depends on it.
Manufacturing and Software have lots of different needs, and he doesn’t have the temperament to lead a software org successfully.
Hence, no autopilot and Twitter getting worse day by day.
The CyberStuck subreddit is full of people who are tolerating the many flaws of the truck, just because the company CEO happens to also not like liberals.
Economics is a subset of sociology. It's all built on expectations and beliefs, not reality. Hopefully beliefs and reality are close, but they don't need to be.
To illustrate the sociological paternity, see bank runs.
Yeah economists like to pretend that they are amongst the natural sciences with their models and formulas. But in reality it’s like you said it’s a complex system built on people’s behavior which is irrational to say the least. Another way to think about this is for Economics to join the natural science one would need to prove that free-will doesn’t exist.
I have only test driven a Tesla? But I'm not sure if you are talking about twitter or Tesla software.
Because low key that thing was crispy smooth and probably the best Ui I have driven so far.
(hated the fucking turn signals tho, the capacitive button is the worst part about the car)
Software being the best, but that turn signal was simply deal breaker for me, my adhd couldn't not adjust to it and found it very annoying.
Welcome to the internet. None of the people that complain about Tesla here have ever driven one. They claim hype is the only thing holding up Tesla when they themselves are hyped up on fake negative press. I've rented a bunch of Teslas for work (I don't own one) and I've never had a single issue across multiple cars.
I’ve driven a Model Y for three years.
There are issues. Less so with the S/X lines I bet, but the 3/Y are problematic.
Suspension is awful, like really bad for the price of the car, and it gets compounded by regen braking. It’s an extremely jerky and bumpy ride for a higher end price point.
The software glitches occasionally, which is frustrating when it’s your entertainment system but panic inducing when it’s also your dashboard.
Manufacturing quality is also not what you expect for the price, body panels are out of alignment, bits of the adhesive strips stick out from interior panels, it’s just a mediocre assembly job.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t regret my purchase. It was an absolute delight when I first got it. Driving an EV on a road filled with ICE vehicles is dope. Experimenting with FSD has been cool. I do love how minimal the dash is.
It was a great buy when it was really the only solid option for an EV, it’s unfortunately just not worth the money anymore. The rest of the OEMs have caught up, and the Tesla experience has actually declined since I bought it. They’ve become much more stingy with service and perks, and after the dumpster fire of the Cybertruck rollout, it’s clear that the customer just isn’t a priority for them anymore.
Not the person you asked but I can't recommend the Taycan enough if you can afford it. And although I haven't tried it, the i4 was consumer reports' best ev.
What on earth are you talking about. He made his first riches in software and every last one of his current companies are heavily software dependent. Twitter isn't failing because he can't do software, it's because of his personal politics. Literally the worst comparison for FSD since it is the only one of his companies that is not engineering focused
Tesla is L2 autonomous driving (plenty of accidents)
Mercedes-Benz is L3 autonomous driving(0 recorded accidents. Mercedes-Benz will ever pay 100% of damages the event of accident in L3 driving)
could just save time and learn how other companies already have beyond L2 on the road and street legal.
Not bad. Tesla stock grew 1,000% in its first 9 years, then another 1,500% the last five years. What's nuts is that it can grow nearly 100% to reach a previous high in 2021--you know when the market topped.
You can either say "oh look how much it's fallen, it can fall more!!!", or say "when the Fed cuts rates more people will get car loans and I wonder what they will buy...an EV or ICE?"
L2 is use-at-your-own-risk. That’s why they intentionally never use words like “autonomous” or “autonomy” but instead call it full-self-drive so they can argue in court that they never claimed autonomy and that “full self drive”meant the driver should be driving the car themselves fully.
I thought FSD was already valued in the stock, among other things, which is why it has an abnormally high P/E.
Is he saying that the stock value is still wrong and should be even higher than it is right now at some unknown point in the future? XD
This guy promises things that he has zero justification for and then throws insane amounts of money at it. Sometimes it works because of his engineering teams’ brilliance. Sometimes he runs up against a brick wall of engineering reality. The important part is that he doesn’t know which situation is which. He has no fucking clue. Trusting Musk’s word is like betting on a coin flip.
BYD has taken over Tesla's manufacturing internationally. Tesla has had problems with simple adaptive cruise control, I doubt they'll have fully autonomous drive within this decade.
Mercedes by far has the best rating for adaptive cruise control and more comfortable. Heck, my Lexus IS(cheapest model before add-ons $40k) is more comfortable than my friend's Tesla which cost him $86k.
The world's foremost pump and dump scheme. Musk's bullshit visions about his supposed pathway to full autonomy is just a bunch of trumped up horse@#% intended to drive his stock multiples. He'd be better suited focusing on putting together a product pipeline. The cybertruck is hot garbage, his legacy models don't work in the winter, his unit sales are down year over year while GM and Ford are seeing increases, Hertz is fire selling its entire fleet and he's given away the Chinese market. He's no closer to full autonomy than OpenAI is to AGI. it's all a bunch of smoke and mirrors not unlike the bogus $100B+ valuation of SpaceX.
If this was Elon when he was building stuff and talking less, I would believe it. These days he is mouthing off and getting more into politics. If there is someone who fully solves autonomous driving and humanoid robots, it would not be Elon nor his companies.
Anyone holding a short position isn’t likely holding it for the 5 years it will take for them to “solve autonomy” or the 7 years it will take to start putting Optimus in stores.
By the time they actually get these products anywhere, there will be better competition.
Teslas used to be a sign of luxury, now they’re a joke.
6 years ago he said tesla was 6 months from "full autonomy".
They say every year computers and systems get slower and slower
Problem is he is trying to do full autonomy with JUST visual & vibrational sensors. At best it will drive as well as an alert human, who is also limited to visual and vibrational sensors. Bring back the radar & add lidar, then it will work BETTER than humans.
> ring back the radar & add lidar, then it will work BETTER than humans. While that would obviously fix it, I actually think his system would work if he were just willing to install sensors in places that unfortunately make it look less sleek. I feel like it's just Vegas all over again. Just a ridiculous compromise that cost lots of money and impressed nobody. Again, I agree a roof-mounted LIDAR system is obviously a better choice than what I'm saying, especially considering that the sensors are also for mass data collection. Unfortunately,, jackass can't do that now because he doesn't have any data to train on and would need to start all over again.
*…make it look less sleek…* Cybertruck has entered the room…
LMAO!! In a way, it proves me wrong because he's obviously willing to build a complete monstrosity. Just not with visible sensors or LIDAR.
He doesn't know it's a monstrosity, he's fired all the smart people too, Tesla isn't going to ever be better then they are now, their golden age is over.
I recall him throwing a brick at the cybertruck window and breaking the glass. While everyone's laughing at that, I'm wondering, "Who cares about that? How about the fact that it's so F**KING ugly?"
Our how about, i want my window to be breakable so i can get out in an emergency?
I honestly thought I was the only one that missed that apparently.
At the time, I thought he was destroying it with the brick because he suddenly realized how ugly it is.
He could of just laughed too and be like well at least the brick still works. And the. Sell Tesla printed bricks as a further joke. But no he had to feel tiny and make a death trap.
Can have radar and lidar without compromising aesthetics, everyone else does. Baffling Tesla thought they could create a system using only visual data.
> Can have radar and lidar without compromising aesthetics I mostly agree. But Elon also wants the system to be cheap on a per-car basis. Think of it this way... A RADAR and LIDAR mounted on top of a 3 foot tall fixture on the roof (an extreme for example) can collect data from 360 degrees without obstructions to either sound waves or visibility. It could also be very cheaply engineered since we obviously threw aesthetics out the window. To make it aesthetic adds costs to both engineering hours to design it and in functionality. But... It would collect 360 degrees of data that could easily be trained and help in making future systems functional. No matter what, there are tradeoffs to every choice. I just feel like Elon's choice in the tradeoff sucks.
Basically we all have Google maps cars.
Pretty bold claim to know what Elon wants. Man changes his mind more than the wind changes direction in March.
Doesn't Volvo use Lidar, given its limited in scope, but it seems to be part of the driver assistance.
Of course it does because the decisions were made by engineers instead of the CEO. LIDAR is more reliable, but apparently they needed to cut their $2k of sensors down to $1k even if it makes it unsafe.
How else are they supposed to afford his $56 Billion bonus?
Safe is just another word for cost in CEO talk, right up there with essential intelligent employee that keeps it all together.
Almost every other manufacturer with any kind of assistance (including adaptive cruise control or automatic collision braking) uses LIDAR.
thank you, I did not know
They are using radar not lidar. Lidar is only used in car trying to solve full autonomy except Tesla.
Is it the price of lidar that Tesla reluctant to add to Tesla? Tesla has a lot of cash. Lidar would be a welcome addition plus safety backup in case visual fails.
Elon told his engineers no lidar and made a big deal about doing cameras only years ago so now its an ego thing and he'll never admit he was wrong.
I tell you, camera are great when packed with snow and ice and mud!
I mean, you can "blind" anything.
It’s ego. Years ago he decided to go the vision route. LiDAR was much more expensive a few years back, bulkier, hard to procure materials for production. Now that many LiDAR companies have shouldered the cost to make it cheaper, scalable, and better performing, it would be a good time to switch over. My opinion is that he will lose the race for autonomy unless he chooses to add LiDAR. Perhaps he is now just playing the hand he was dealt… thinking cameras were the only viable path and now that LiDAR is cheap, not tipping the competition until he buys a company on the cheap.
I've noticed that Musk's decision-making/problem-solving has the tendency to go like this: 1. Look at the list of constraints causing a problem 2. Identify whether any constraints can be eliminated or substituted. 3. Eliminate or substitute them, even if it is by unconventional means, or goes against conventional wisdom. It's not actually a bad way to solve problems, but he'll green light things that most companies or engineers would not. Like things that would come up in a brainstorm and everybody says, haha, if only we could do that but we can't because it would XYZ. Musk hears this and says, F conventional wisdom. DO IT. Sometimes this approach works to discover radical solutions held back by conventional wisdom. However, it also sometimes reveals why the conventional wisdom exists in the first place. Examples: * "Boss, the Model 3 production ramp is constrained by factory space. It will take 2 years to build out another factory shell." Musk: "F building walls, put up a TENT." * "Boss, the Model 3 production ramp is constrained by lack of part X and the supplier can't make more and it would take a year to spin up another supplier." MUSK: "F that part, it's only holding stuff together, make it out of wood from Home Depot." * "Boss, all approaches to self-driving incorporate sensor fusion between lidar, ultrasonic, radar and vision. Each of these adds cost X to the package." Musk: "F sensor fusion, humans only use two eyes."
Identify whether any constraints can be eliminated or substituted without adequate knowledge of the problem space and bully anyone who suggests otherwise. Fuck up, find scapegoat, rehire, and engage in obfuscation. I wouldn't invest a dime in any of these autonomous ventures. Look at Uber once they divested. It is just a capital sink with no practical path to reliable scaling. Anything useful is being parted out to automobile manufacturers where the real potential for value is. It's just the same band of rich kids playing game with VC money. Real investors need to be very wary and not get too wrapped up in these convos.
I guess but I regularly take Waymos in SF and they are amazing.
>not tipping the competition until he buys a company on the cheap. Exactly what he will do, IMHO.
They don't even want to spend money on the cheap ass ultra-sonics so they removed them, they won't even consider lidar right now. That's why "6 years ago he said tesla was 6 months from "full autonomy"."
Getting rid of USS's when there was a supply problem was such a stupid move. That pretty much ensures that they can't achieve FSD that will work in any weather less than perfect, whatever they do.
Typical impatient Musk
The cost of the company buying LiDAR wouldn’t matter to Tesla. A company’s concern would be the added cost to the product.
any engineer worth a shit is long gone - pretty sure its just principals debating the best way to implement something if they had a real engineering team. Like everything with that south african rich kid retard; its all bullshit and its bad for ya.
> Bring back the radar & add lidar, and then he'll be slightly less behind the companies that have passed Tesla.
They can't bring that stuff back though they've already promised cars that have the crappy hardware will be self-driving. I mean let's face it even with all the hardware bells and whistles those cars are not self-driving end of story. I agree it would be better but it is not self-driving there is no full self-driving car in the world today there's stuff that's close to that... But even they have systems for a human intervention remotely to take over. Which again I don't think Tesla even has anything like that.
> LIDAR LIDAR is a dead end, because physics exists. LIDAR cannot penetrate water, and water routinely falls from the sky. Ask yourself - why do all the LIDAR based solutions primarily operate in the desert? Secondary problems with LIDAR - cost prohibitive (could be overcome), ugly (could be ignored), generates too much data which pushes compute requirements up and thus eats too much power (could be overcome with time). But the primary problem can't be overcome. You have to solve autonomy using non-LIDAR solutions and equip your cars with it in addition to LIDAR, else your fleet shuts down when there is precipitation. And if your fleet shuts down when there is precipitation, no one can count on your fleet and they won't trust it. Or, if you can operate just fine without LIDAR, then you may as well delete LIDAR and not have all the secondary disadvantages.
This. Make the cars as safe as possible, this means using as much technology as possible. If its available we need to use it if there is a chance it could save lives down the line. Put every sensor imaginable in the car.
It is called Moore's Law: The required number of computer powers keeps on doubling every single year.
More's Law
More slaw you say?
More slay you saw?
Mores? It’s moops, you idiot… moops not mores (Sarcastic Seinfeld reference)
It used to be More's law. Now it's Moore's law. Next year it will be Mooore's law.
Well, lets fix that ( I'm Gen-X) It's really not a law, more like a well defined observation that is now used in IC production goals 1) evaluation against the past. 2 years ago is the look back. 2) the number of circuits on a chip will double 3) the cost won't increase much Where is this gets interesting and why I mentioned that I'm Generation X In the late 90s early 2000s, I was hearing that the 11 nanometer scale was approaching the highest density. Somewhere around the early 2000s it was the 9 nanometer scale, and they were talking about how it couldn't get smaller because arcing between the circuits or some sort of hair would develop. At 7 nanometers even I started to get convinced that they couldn't get it down to 5, now I'm coming to understand that we are only 2 years away from 3 nanometers. Obviously the next step in chip development, is heat dissipation, along with building the chip upwards. I think that the Golden age of Chip design is ending. And the new age of Chip design is starting to happen. I can picture a weird cube type chip. Obviously, because the speed in the process of artificial intelligence, and the way it can test out different theories. I could be completely wrong and they could redesign chips to be much faster in the same amount of space that it has now. I go far back enough to remember buying bread boards, the good old 555 chip, trying to create a random number generator. I'll be honest with you, I remember red LEDs, and green LEDs. I don't think there was any other color back then
Definitely “cube type chips” being produced. Check out TSMC’s website. They have solved interconnect density to allow chip on chip stacking (among other things). Now you can stack four ICs to quadruple the compute in a given x-y.
This is incredibly wonderful information. Thank you for posting it and sharing
Twice as powerful and 10,000 times larger.
Maybe this’ll be an unpopular take but other cars have better “self driving” functionality. The new Toyotas have a better dynamic cruise control. Idk but the teslas in my city only have cruise control on the highway. I was disappointed
I have a 22 rav4 hybrid and mine sucks. It loses track of the lanes and turns itself off every 2-3 min. I wonder if it's just mine.
there is so much variability in what constitutes a "lane". I know of several areas that have weird lane demarcation materials. Also depending on how they are detecting these, likely some temporal constraints on performance.
I had a similar experience with a rav4 I rented. The radar cruise control worked well though
I was driving a Corolla. Maybe it worked better because it was a smaller car?
I recently drove a '24 Corolla and even on the furthest setting, the adaptive cruise control stayed too close to the car in front of me for my comfort. Maybe it'd be ok for city driving, but not mountain highways.
My parents have had 3 back to back Toyotas with amazing cruise control.
Tesla may never catch up due to their insistence on using vision systems and not radar/lidar.
“It’s how people drive!” People fuckin suck at driving bro
My buddies new Subaru outback has a "assisted driving" feature or called something similar. Thing pretty much drives itself. My other buddies tesla on the other hand the self driving is suuuper buggy.
I agree lol. Same with the Toyota rental I had. I pretty much let it drive itself from Atlanta to Ohio. The only annoying thing was it would beep at me if I took my hand off the wheel, but I know they do it to avoid distracted driving
Volkswagen is pretty good also imo.
This was a shocking lesson my wife and I just learned when we were shopping for a commuter car. I assumed a Model 3 would be a slam dunk for that specific need but the lane keep constantly turns off and you have to manually turn it back on. I was certain this was user error so we pulled over and Googled the issue only to find countless owners complaining about it. I don’t even understand why it’s like that or why it’s still labeled beta? We did not buy it if that’s not obvious.
Yeah, and if my uncle was a woman, she'd be my aunt.
Yeah, and if my grandmother had wheels, she would have been a bike.
Carbonara!
If you just added ham instead of bacon
Then it’s like a British carbonara
Well I'm glad you're standing there and not me!
The blandest of all the carbonaras.
Ah yes the famous Italian proverb used on breakfast television
GINO! 🫣
I legit have this clip saved in my Instagram and go back to it whenever I need a hard laugh
If if if my mom had balls, she would be my dad. Sometimes it works out for you, sometimes it doesn't. That's how it is in racing.
You meant to say if your aunt had balls, right?
The punchline here is "cheesy macaroni"
Is this a terrible remix of the famous “If my grandma had wheels she would be a bicycle” tv moment that never fails to make me laugh to the point of tears?
No one got the max reference?
If the queen had balls, she would be the king.
The Kardashians have entered the room
And if a frog had wings he wouldn’t bump his ass when he hopped
And when we get to Big Rock Candy Mountain, I'll be paddling around the lake of stew.
Now I’m singing that song
One evening as the sun went down and the jungle fire was burninggg
Didn't Gates' firm short TSLA close to a year ago? They're probably not even in the trade anymore lol
From what I heard, they did not. Gates family fund stopped publishing their numbers since about 2008. They are not required to, but kinda weird.
Where did you hear what you heard?
Probably here, which means it's 99% likely to be incorrect.
lol fair enough
That’s not true. 60% of the time it’s right all of the time.
yeah, but 33% of those times someone thinks cucumbers taste better pickled
Woah woah woah we pride ourselves on 100% incorrect around here ok? /s
lmao I took a 2 second look at his comment history and immediately saw he posts to the stonk subreddit so yeah bump that up to 100%
😂
Why bill gates has to publish investments of his FAMILY funds?
Not weird at all and very normal. Family offices publish nothing about their holdings
Why is it kinda weird? You had a president who won’t release his tax returns but a private citizen not telling you his stock market positions is weird?
Nah, they still post their positions quarterly like other hedge funds. The meme is it that is actually managed by a guy. Gates theoretically could tell the guy who runs it to do individual actions but tbh I think it’s probably just the guy running it who did it. Elon has a bit of victim complex. He thinks all these people are out to get him when they don’t even think about him at all.
Are you talking about the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation? They filed a 13F in May.
More likely Cascade Investments, the firm that manages the foundation's money
Ah, thank you! I see Cascade filed in April, FWIW.
It was over a year ago when musk asked gates if he was still short. That positions years old if it’s still open
Yeah seems unlikely they're holding a multi-year short with interest rates being what they are.
Bill Gates personal shares yield him like 300m a year, I bet he could do it just for fun and not even know it.
This is what you want from your ceo. Getting pissed at short sellers on the internet
Hey, they paid him $50,000,000,000 for this.
I know the guy is a genius
I'd rant and rave on the internet for 0.1% of that, PM me Tesla board!
Someone did the math a while back. He does about 40 interactions per hour on Twitter many days, often spread over the entire day and night. That means he either spends a ton of time on the app, has assistants engaging for him, or has a bot doing some. He says it’s all him. This is enough engagement that he can’t really be focusing on any other topic for any sustained period of time. What this also means is that Tesla is paying him roughly $1,500 per engagement on an app that doesn’t provide any profit for Tesla.
Even if he wasn’t the CEO, he still doesn’t know how to shut the fuck up. Look at Twitter, he appointed a “CEO” and i never see her in a single news story, just his dumbass writing “concerning” or “looking into it” or some stupid shit.
That’s because she’s so transparently a patsy every news source just kind of ignores her. She does get out there to say stuff but it’s like universally meaningless business speak sprinkled with hollow buzzwords. She seems to refuse to acknowledge what Twitter actually is and so every time she speaks it’s like she’s talking about something that doesn’t even exist. The statements are so obviously fictional she may as well be the CEO of pearphone from iCarly.
"We're going to double click on the blockchain AI drive this quarter to transform X into a multi-dimensional paradigm shifting cross-functional organization in keeping with modern standards and use cases" \^ Fun drinking game: place bets on whether that's a real quote or one I made up \^
Gaslighting people short his company while selling billions of it himself is surely a choice.
It has worked the last decade
Not really the mentally stable leadership you want IMO. But I am a random on the internet and he is worth billions so you are probably right. Also he recently went off the deep end. So the previous 9 years are kinda off the table
You’re making too much sense sir.
I do that every once in a while
The previous 9 years *IS* the table
You don't want anyone from your lawn mower to your doctor to be influenced by anything but the job they are there to do. Saying "well, my doctor kept me healthy this past decade" isn't quite the flex if you know that he also gets kick backs from organ donation. He could just as easily have killed you "on accident" if the money was high enough, and the fact that there is even a 1% chance he might be influenced by something that is detrimental to you is somewhat “not what you're looking for" in a doctor (or a CEO).
Hey Wirecard’s aggression toward short sellers worked great and wasn’t a sign of hidden flaws! Don’t google Wirecard, just trust me
So, never. Got it!
In the meantime, isnt the company giving him 56 B$ or so , reducing the value of the company and helping shorts ?
In the memetime
This is the same as any ceo saying their company will innovate and their value will go up.
I mean it’s what I learnt at summer school in Harvard
Musk better hope those 100% tariffs on foreign EVs hold. If not, someone is getting obliterated and it won’t be the shorts.
Musk as usual is high as fuck
Musk has overcommitted and underdelivered for years and years. Go and see when he promised a fleet of autonomous robotaxis. He said he’d have it four years ago. He’s now still years away. He’s a stock pumper.
And he’s good at it usually. The problem now are the numbers are so bad he’s can’t keep it from going down. Hard to say at this point how much of it is just rates being high. Will be interesting to see how plays out owe the coming years.
He may be able to play where Henry Ford did 100 years ago, but this guy can’t build a quality software shop if his business depends on it. Manufacturing and Software have lots of different needs, and he doesn’t have the temperament to lead a software org successfully. Hence, no autopilot and Twitter getting worse day by day.
tesla has shown you don't need quality, you just need a hype man on twitter spreading lies
The CyberStuck subreddit is full of people who are tolerating the many flaws of the truck, just because the company CEO happens to also not like liberals.
That’s only because they banned anyone who posted a single comment in any of the subs they deem to be anti cyber cuck or anti musk.
Can confirm. Banned from at least 4 Tesla subs I've never even posted in.
No loss, they are T\_D levels of derangement.
Yup. Got banned for being critical. And I had a preorder
This should tell you everything you need to know about Tesla already.
I meant /r/CyberStuck, which is the sub that’s critical of the truck. But I don’t doubt that’s the case regardless lmfao.
Ironically , liberals are the only people buying electric vehicles . Another reason Elon is a fucking moron .
Economics is a subset of sociology. It's all built on expectations and beliefs, not reality. Hopefully beliefs and reality are close, but they don't need to be. To illustrate the sociological paternity, see bank runs.
Yeah economists like to pretend that they are amongst the natural sciences with their models and formulas. But in reality it’s like you said it’s a complex system built on people’s behavior which is irrational to say the least. Another way to think about this is for Economics to join the natural science one would need to prove that free-will doesn’t exist.
Yeah, but even that isn't working anymore. Other EV's are starting to sell in much larger numbers and Tesla seems to be stalling.
thats why elon trying to sell the idea tesla is a software/ai company now
I have only test driven a Tesla? But I'm not sure if you are talking about twitter or Tesla software. Because low key that thing was crispy smooth and probably the best Ui I have driven so far. (hated the fucking turn signals tho, the capacitive button is the worst part about the car) Software being the best, but that turn signal was simply deal breaker for me, my adhd couldn't not adjust to it and found it very annoying.
Welcome to the internet. None of the people that complain about Tesla here have ever driven one. They claim hype is the only thing holding up Tesla when they themselves are hyped up on fake negative press. I've rented a bunch of Teslas for work (I don't own one) and I've never had a single issue across multiple cars.
I’ve driven a Model Y for three years. There are issues. Less so with the S/X lines I bet, but the 3/Y are problematic. Suspension is awful, like really bad for the price of the car, and it gets compounded by regen braking. It’s an extremely jerky and bumpy ride for a higher end price point. The software glitches occasionally, which is frustrating when it’s your entertainment system but panic inducing when it’s also your dashboard. Manufacturing quality is also not what you expect for the price, body panels are out of alignment, bits of the adhesive strips stick out from interior panels, it’s just a mediocre assembly job. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t regret my purchase. It was an absolute delight when I first got it. Driving an EV on a road filled with ICE vehicles is dope. Experimenting with FSD has been cool. I do love how minimal the dash is. It was a great buy when it was really the only solid option for an EV, it’s unfortunately just not worth the money anymore. The rest of the OEMs have caught up, and the Tesla experience has actually declined since I bought it. They’ve become much more stingy with service and perks, and after the dumpster fire of the Cybertruck rollout, it’s clear that the customer just isn’t a priority for them anymore.
If you were to buy another EV right now which would it be? Would you miss FSD?
Not the person you asked but I can't recommend the Taycan enough if you can afford it. And although I haven't tried it, the i4 was consumer reports' best ev.
What on earth are you talking about. He made his first riches in software and every last one of his current companies are heavily software dependent. Twitter isn't failing because he can't do software, it's because of his personal politics. Literally the worst comparison for FSD since it is the only one of his companies that is not engineering focused
When we do something we aren’t doing that will fix the company. What a fukn moron
Lets get the wipers working correctly first.
And gas pedal not getting stuck
And panels not flying off.
Seems like neither of these things will ever happen now
Of course, this dumb ass posts fluff the day he posts his volume declines.
Tesla is L2 autonomous driving (plenty of accidents) Mercedes-Benz is L3 autonomous driving(0 recorded accidents. Mercedes-Benz will ever pay 100% of damages the event of accident in L3 driving) could just save time and learn how other companies already have beyond L2 on the road and street legal.
Called radar, USS, and Lidar... but that shit is expensive, so let the boy genius do it with non-stereoscopic cameras.
“I will destroy you!!!!” 🤣
How’s the cult going?
Not bad. Tesla stock grew 1,000% in its first 9 years, then another 1,500% the last five years. What's nuts is that it can grow nearly 100% to reach a previous high in 2021--you know when the market topped. You can either say "oh look how much it's fallen, it can fall more!!!", or say "when the Fed cuts rates more people will get car loans and I wonder what they will buy...an EV or ICE?"
Waymo already solved it and are at L4. Heck even BMW that started late are L3 already. Meanwhile Tesla at L2 yelling to the skies “ONE DAY!!!”
L2 is cruise control?
L2 is use-at-your-own-risk. That’s why they intentionally never use words like “autonomous” or “autonomy” but instead call it full-self-drive so they can argue in court that they never claimed autonomy and that “full self drive”meant the driver should be driving the car themselves fully.
Wouldn't that also happen if his robo taxi, FSD, solar pannels/tesla battery lies ever actually came to fruition? Just more pumping.
I stopped reading after Once
Cocaine is a helluva drug
Once I develop my free gold machine! You'll all be sorry you didn't invest!!!!
What happens when this hurricane rips through Boca Chica? Puts on Elon or na?
In 3016
Anyone holding a short position will get obliterated by old age first.
How's that Hyperloop project going?
He can’t even build a truck that works properly. Anytime his automation fails he will blame the driver.
Self driving is going about as well as you running Twitter. Twat.
Elon musk has been successfully grifting so long that some of the grifts have found marginal success
I thought FSD was already valued in the stock, among other things, which is why it has an abnormally high P/E. Is he saying that the stock value is still wrong and should be even higher than it is right now at some unknown point in the future? XD
So in 2040 or 2045?
ANY DAY NOW!!!!
No dude it's you. You could f-up a wet dream.
He’s been inventing the same bullshit for six years. The better question is how much longer will people buy it.
This guy promises things that he has zero justification for and then throws insane amounts of money at it. Sometimes it works because of his engineering teams’ brilliance. Sometimes he runs up against a brick wall of engineering reality. The important part is that he doesn’t know which situation is which. He has no fucking clue. Trusting Musk’s word is like betting on a coin flip.
I saw this yesterday but it appears that he removed the post?
BYD has taken over Tesla's manufacturing internationally. Tesla has had problems with simple adaptive cruise control, I doubt they'll have fully autonomous drive within this decade. Mercedes by far has the best rating for adaptive cruise control and more comfortable. Heck, my Lexus IS(cheapest model before add-ons $40k) is more comfortable than my friend's Tesla which cost him $86k.
Elon musk is just tryng to pump befpre he sells all his shares. He is trying so hard to cash out is sad.
lol the whole market is betting against him, he's delusional
Well once replicators became a thing, gold won’t matter anymore.
It’s not “Once”, it’s “If”
The world's foremost pump and dump scheme. Musk's bullshit visions about his supposed pathway to full autonomy is just a bunch of trumped up horse@#% intended to drive his stock multiples. He'd be better suited focusing on putting together a product pipeline. The cybertruck is hot garbage, his legacy models don't work in the winter, his unit sales are down year over year while GM and Ford are seeing increases, Hertz is fire selling its entire fleet and he's given away the Chinese market. He's no closer to full autonomy than OpenAI is to AGI. it's all a bunch of smoke and mirrors not unlike the bogus $100B+ valuation of SpaceX.
If this was Elon when he was building stuff and talking less, I would believe it. These days he is mouthing off and getting more into politics. If there is someone who fully solves autonomous driving and humanoid robots, it would not be Elon nor his companies.
Big if.
*if
“Once”
If my grandmother had wheels she’s would’ve been a bike.
Prime?
Anyone holding a short position isn’t likely holding it for the 5 years it will take for them to “solve autonomy” or the 7 years it will take to start putting Optimus in stores. By the time they actually get these products anywhere, there will be better competition. Teslas used to be a sign of luxury, now they’re a joke.
IF
Can’t solve assembly issues 😂
When I end world hunger and resolve all conflicts in the Middle East, then all you haters gonna look dumb af.
“Once we do what we said would be here 5 years ago…”
Fully solves autonomy? Ok buddy, keep telling yourself that!