But dang. Your date May 17th might be a good one. It's the end of the 3rd week for options. Also that date would be on point for when the down turn is expected to peak according to ASK SLIM. I will be looking for other indicators at that time. That should be a good point of interest.
Bear in mind a lot of the backtesting of this strategy is only during a period of exceptional performance and relatively low drawdowns.
There was a post on here a while ago of backtested using simulation and they found that 9sig doesn't perform well during the early 2000s:
"I tried extending the start date backward to 1999 by using levered QQQ instead of TQQQ and I can confirm there's a 97% drawdown by July 2002 and we don't recover the initial $100K until 2014"
Kelly typically says that anytime is a great time to start, and that starting now is better than waiting since no one knows what might happen next. Generally speaking, the philosophy of 9Sig is all about reacting to what’s already happened with the price, not trying to predict what will happen next. It’s built to respond to price moves both up or down, and you could lose out on gains by waiting.
I’ve been running the program since March and personally I would say it’s a decent time. TQQQ started the quarter at 61.56 with a 9% target of 67.10 for the end of the quarter. So if you started now you’d be getting in at a slight discount. The initial 40% bond allocation would allow you to buy more TQQQ next quarter if the price goes down.
If you have a high conviction in any stock/etf, the best time to go invest is now. If it’s near ATH, I usually use, within 15%, don’t go all in, and average down on whatever schedule works best for you.
Why not use a EMA crossover strategy like the 13/21 ? This strategy outperforms the 9sig. Average yearly return over the last 5 years is 60% and average return since 2010 is 44%.
You can backtest it on regular NDX or QQQ and take the signals from february 2010 (TQQQ’s debut). Go long when 13 ema weekly crosses above the 21 weekly ema. Exit when 13 crosses below the 21.
While waiting for a buy signal you can purchase sone high yield etf to boost even further your results like in 2022. Sell signal happened in february ‘22 and the next buy signal only happened in feb ‘23 so you could have bought that kind if etf and get a ~5% yield on your cash.
What is the recommendation when on the weekly 13 is still above 21 ema, but price has touched 21 and bouncing back. The 13 is slightly downward slopping. This is the current situation so wondering if this means ok to enter or still wait for crossovers. On the weekly, it could be years before the two ema crossover.
Use the daily 13/21 ema in that case to wait for a buy signal on the daily chart if you missed your entry on the weekly.
While waiting you can also pick a high yield etf to keep your money working for you.
You can use the daily 13/21 to DCA into your position. What I suggest is If a buy signal triggered on the weekly and the daily you can DCA. If the weekly is “buy” but not the daily wait for the next daily buy signal. If the weekly signals to exit the position don’t dca at all even if the daily triggers.
It works great and you have an exit strategy for major downturns 2000, 2008 & 2022 to name a few. Look up the signals on NDX. Blue arrow is buy and purple is sell.
https://preview.redd.it/ei06kr5rgjxc1.jpeg?width=1334&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f2a5a78bbfe46b14922bda2f08c080331e17fa74
There is going to be another drawdown? Tell me more! Never realized it was predictable.
In all seriousness - start any time you are ready if a dip occurs after you buy then buy more! If there is not a dip keep buying anyway!
What makes you think there will be a major downturn anytime soon? Who is to say the market did not already put in an intermediate bottom and about to run to new highs? For all we know the next major downturn may not come for years with the market much higher by then.
You could wait for more evidence QQQ is back in an uptrend before starting, such as back above a rising 50-day SMA, but that requires investing at higher levels.
If looking to follow a specific strategy or your own variation, then follow it to the tee. Don’t let your own bias influence the system, at least not until the market shows signs of a major trend change on longer timeframes. We are not anywhere close to that now.
Kelly subscriber here. I've also seen it said the best time to start is at the end of a quarter when there is a "buy" signal. In other words, TQQQ under-performed for the quarter and so in that very narrow time frame, it's "on sale."
Around mid May next month. Friday 17th May exactly 11.37 AM NYT.
But dang. Your date May 17th might be a good one. It's the end of the 3rd week for options. Also that date would be on point for when the down turn is expected to peak according to ASK SLIM. I will be looking for other indicators at that time. That should be a good point of interest.
Why so specific
It’s a joke I’m pretty certain. Because nobody knows. Especially since the markets are particularly predictable right now.
Bear in mind a lot of the backtesting of this strategy is only during a period of exceptional performance and relatively low drawdowns. There was a post on here a while ago of backtested using simulation and they found that 9sig doesn't perform well during the early 2000s: "I tried extending the start date backward to 1999 by using levered QQQ instead of TQQQ and I can confirm there's a 97% drawdown by July 2002 and we don't recover the initial $100K until 2014"
This. I would balance it with some kind of barbell approach 10-20% strategy and rebalance periodically.
Could you give the title of the post or a link? Would like to read it.
https://www.reddit.com/r/LETFs/s/UdFeW3yUdb
QQQ didn’t recover from 2000 until 2015
Kelly typically says that anytime is a great time to start, and that starting now is better than waiting since no one knows what might happen next. Generally speaking, the philosophy of 9Sig is all about reacting to what’s already happened with the price, not trying to predict what will happen next. It’s built to respond to price moves both up or down, and you could lose out on gains by waiting. I’ve been running the program since March and personally I would say it’s a decent time. TQQQ started the quarter at 61.56 with a 9% target of 67.10 for the end of the quarter. So if you started now you’d be getting in at a slight discount. The initial 40% bond allocation would allow you to buy more TQQQ next quarter if the price goes down.
Buy and hold!!!!
Never go all in so you can average down when a dip comes.
If you have a high conviction in any stock/etf, the best time to go invest is now. If it’s near ATH, I usually use, within 15%, don’t go all in, and average down on whatever schedule works best for you.
election years tend to be bullish, only 2008 was negative. We already had our dip. just go all in.
My gut feeling is that this year will end up Okay for nasdaq, so if you can buy some now.
Tqqq dipped quite a fair bit last week, so last week would have been as good as anytime. Just buy some and average when as you see fit.
Why not use a EMA crossover strategy like the 13/21 ? This strategy outperforms the 9sig. Average yearly return over the last 5 years is 60% and average return since 2010 is 44%.
Where’s the backtesting of that strategy?
You can backtest it on regular NDX or QQQ and take the signals from february 2010 (TQQQ’s debut). Go long when 13 ema weekly crosses above the 21 weekly ema. Exit when 13 crosses below the 21. While waiting for a buy signal you can purchase sone high yield etf to boost even further your results like in 2022. Sell signal happened in february ‘22 and the next buy signal only happened in feb ‘23 so you could have bought that kind if etf and get a ~5% yield on your cash.
What is the recommendation when on the weekly 13 is still above 21 ema, but price has touched 21 and bouncing back. The 13 is slightly downward slopping. This is the current situation so wondering if this means ok to enter or still wait for crossovers. On the weekly, it could be years before the two ema crossover.
Use the daily 13/21 ema in that case to wait for a buy signal on the daily chart if you missed your entry on the weekly. While waiting you can also pick a high yield etf to keep your money working for you. You can use the daily 13/21 to DCA into your position. What I suggest is If a buy signal triggered on the weekly and the daily you can DCA. If the weekly is “buy” but not the daily wait for the next daily buy signal. If the weekly signals to exit the position don’t dca at all even if the daily triggers.
Thanks much! What hysa would you recommend? I have been using Robinhood gold but for a small account. Don’t feel comfortable putting a lot in there.
I’m canadian so I use CASH.TO I don’t know about US ones unfortunately
Why the 13/21? I've never heard of this
It works great and you have an exit strategy for major downturns 2000, 2008 & 2022 to name a few. Look up the signals on NDX. Blue arrow is buy and purple is sell. https://preview.redd.it/ei06kr5rgjxc1.jpeg?width=1334&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f2a5a78bbfe46b14922bda2f08c080331e17fa74
There is going to be another drawdown? Tell me more! Never realized it was predictable. In all seriousness - start any time you are ready if a dip occurs after you buy then buy more! If there is not a dip keep buying anyway!
What makes you think there will be a major downturn anytime soon? Who is to say the market did not already put in an intermediate bottom and about to run to new highs? For all we know the next major downturn may not come for years with the market much higher by then. You could wait for more evidence QQQ is back in an uptrend before starting, such as back above a rising 50-day SMA, but that requires investing at higher levels. If looking to follow a specific strategy or your own variation, then follow it to the tee. Don’t let your own bias influence the system, at least not until the market shows signs of a major trend change on longer timeframes. We are not anywhere close to that now.
Point no.1 --> Don't go all in Point no. 2--> Always have cash on the side Point no. 3 -> Buy shares now and DCa when it goes down significantly
DON'T DO THAT
Kelly subscriber here. I've also seen it said the best time to start is at the end of a quarter when there is a "buy" signal. In other words, TQQQ under-performed for the quarter and so in that very narrow time frame, it's "on sale."