Yeah you have to put a little “/s” tag after every single slightly questionable comment you write on this website. People’s sarcasm detectors are atrocious
Won't happen because Mark Billingham is a weak pushover, hence why yes man blind and deaf southgate is in charge.
Doubt his replacement will be that good after the tournament. Either way the corruption starts at the top.
The point is.... xG is a pointless stat in isolation when discussing a team performance. It's a scouting stat for individuals that's true value comes over a large sample size not a single game.
I disagree that it’s only valuable for individuals. It certainly doesn’t tell you the story of the game by itself but it is a measure of the quality of each team’s chances which is important, and by looking at xG per shot or an xG plot you can get even more information about a single match.
I was watching the FourFourTwo tactical analysis from back before the tournament. Total makes sense why we are struggling and think Southgate and the team need to take an equal amount of blame here. The experimental system (new to an england team) that we are trying to play is sound in theory. However we are being let down in key areas. In order to play this system, the attackers need to be absolutely on the defence from the beginning. We are relying on this so that we can play a higher back line and keep in the opposition half. The high intensity of the press is preventing teams from long balling us and breaking away (What happened with Iceland). The problem is the back line is being forced back to cope with the lack of press and is creating a gap between the back line and midfield. You could see the gaps that the Danish were getting into and causing problems. The problem is Foden and Kanes game is not high press. These two are very reliant on the team around them to create opportunities for them to pounce. In a nut shell we need players who are willing to high press i.e Gordon, Palmer, Ollie Watkins. These guys have been brought into the team to do this job and are not being used. I’m hoping Southgate realises this for Slovenia and tries Gordon on the wing and gives ollie watkins an opportunity.
I’m not saying he isn’t telling players to drop deeper after we score, he evidently is, but I genuinely doubt he’s telling the players to set up in a line at the edge of the penalty area like we’ve all seen on that Sky infographic. I also doubt he’s telling Kane to drop as deep as he is doing. Southgate deserves a lot of blame for how we’ve been set up, but surely the players should know a lot better.
I swear weirdoes like you only appear at international tournaments.
4 points, Slovenia next. All to fucking play for. Why caught up with hating the manager?!
Sure, get rid, but it's another 2 years until the next fucking tournament. Life isn't THAT long
Because the manager is why it's 4 and not 6.
https://preview.redd.it/i8tfo8iyz68d1.jpeg?width=923&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ac6763c6455ae099ae1ea3442c2816979614cd47
And yet under other managers we’ve been worse off after 2 matches
WC94 - did not qualify
EU96 - 4pts
WC98 - 3pts
EU00 - 3pts
WC02 - 4pts (finished group with 5pts and 2 goals)
EU04 - 3pts
WC06 - 6pts (having beaten Trinidad and Tobago plus Paraguay)
EU08 - did not qualify
WC10 - 4pts (beat Slovenia 1-0 and drew 0-0 with Algeria)
EU12 - 4pts
WC14 - 1pt
EU16 - 4pts
SOUTHGATE
WC18 - 6pts
EU20 - 4pts
WC22 - 4pts
So in 30 years, we have only bettered our current tally after two games twice and one of those times was under Southgate. Under him we’ve never failed to get fewer than 4pts after two games and have always got out the group.
So unless every single manager is useless (and Southgate is thus slightly less useless) perhaps he is the reason we have 4 not 1?
Watching the other games I just find all other teams will cross the ball in the box. Cut inside and try a shot. We seem to cut back and pass it round the back four again
The only number that ultimately matters in the group stages is the number before our name. Currently it is 1 meaning we are top of our group. If we are woeful and it still ends up being 1 I won’t care too much.
In the knockout stages xG and everything else means jack. All that matters is which team progresses and which team doesn’t. If we win this tournament playing caveman football Southgate will be knighted and his statue will join Bobby Moores. If his team light up the tournament playing dazzling attacking football but lose the final on penalties, he will be hounded out of the job and vilified.
The other 2 there have 1 point each. Not saying we're not doing shit, but they do say it's a sign of a good team to get results at your worst (which I think we can all agree we are rn.) If only we could turn it round
At this point, if we went super attacking, caution to the wind and went out, that would garner a more positive fan and media response than grinding through attritional games with defensive, retreating, percentage-based football.
Ah xG the most flawed metric in football. The probability of chance or goal creation based on what data? The original metrics are sketchy at best. xG is collective data that is basically an average of an average. The worst kind of data point
Rule Britannia.
Surprised it’s as high as that
Best xG against in the whole tournament though!
What kind of idiot thinks not conceding will help you win a tournament.
That must be a joke. Not conceding is absolutely vital to winning the tournament.
Unfortunately no matter how obvious the sarcasm is reddit still doesn't recognise it.
Yeah you have to put a little “/s” tag after every single slightly questionable comment you write on this website. People’s sarcasm detectors are atrocious
Perhaps I've been jaded by the insane criticism of England / Southgate over the past few days but this didn't seem especially obvious.
‘Insane’
Well that was awful sarcasm in fairness to him
With this format it's entirely possible to win the whole thing with nothing but 0-0 draws (if you win the penalty shoot outs, obviously)
Portugal managed this recently, didn’t win a single game in 90 minutes, lifted the trophy
Of course it was a fucking joke
It's comforting that no matter how bad we get, Scotland are somehow worse.
They do it out of spite.
This is truly embarrassing from a Southgate perspective.
It should be more than merely embarrassing. Kane, Southgate, Foden, Saka and we get this? It should mean his immediate dismissal, mid-tournament.
Won't happen because Mark Billingham is a weak pushover, hence why yes man blind and deaf southgate is in charge. Doubt his replacement will be that good after the tournament. Either way the corruption starts at the top.
Look at the positive - we outscored our expected goals
This must hurt the xG warriors of France 2022 aftermath. "but...but...but.... we beat France on xG!!"
2.59 xG against France in the WC. 1.67 xG against Scotland in the last Euros. 0.58 xG against Serbia. 0.87 xG against Denmark.
The point is.... xG is a pointless stat in isolation when discussing a team performance. It's a scouting stat for individuals that's true value comes over a large sample size not a single game.
It's not, you get a decent understanding of the chances if the xg is 2.5 Vs 0.5
It is not pointless, it is an expression of what we have all seen.
I disagree that it’s only valuable for individuals. It certainly doesn’t tell you the story of the game by itself but it is a measure of the quality of each team’s chances which is important, and by looking at xG per shot or an xG plot you can get even more information about a single match.
Just comparing the stats
Just comparing stats is kind of the problem though
In what sense?
That's what I thought when I read that stat. What about those people who said something 4 years ago ...
I was watching the FourFourTwo tactical analysis from back before the tournament. Total makes sense why we are struggling and think Southgate and the team need to take an equal amount of blame here. The experimental system (new to an england team) that we are trying to play is sound in theory. However we are being let down in key areas. In order to play this system, the attackers need to be absolutely on the defence from the beginning. We are relying on this so that we can play a higher back line and keep in the opposition half. The high intensity of the press is preventing teams from long balling us and breaking away (What happened with Iceland). The problem is the back line is being forced back to cope with the lack of press and is creating a gap between the back line and midfield. You could see the gaps that the Danish were getting into and causing problems. The problem is Foden and Kanes game is not high press. These two are very reliant on the team around them to create opportunities for them to pounce. In a nut shell we need players who are willing to high press i.e Gordon, Palmer, Ollie Watkins. These guys have been brought into the team to do this job and are not being used. I’m hoping Southgate realises this for Slovenia and tries Gordon on the wing and gives ollie watkins an opportunity.
Not defending Southgate, but scoring early in both games hurts our xG overall We didn’t have to chase games
It's England since I started watching football. 30 years of dropping deeper and deeper with 1-0 leads.
It's literally in the Vindaloo song - "we'll score one more than you."
Except from what Southgate has been saying, that's complete unintentional and against what he's trying to do so it's not really defending him at all
I’m not saying he isn’t telling players to drop deeper after we score, he evidently is, but I genuinely doubt he’s telling the players to set up in a line at the edge of the penalty area like we’ve all seen on that Sky infographic. I also doubt he’s telling Kane to drop as deep as he is doing. Southgate deserves a lot of blame for how we’ve been set up, but surely the players should know a lot better.
It's not about players knowing better, they all do what the manager tells them. If they don't know, the manager wasn't clear enough
True but there isn’t a rule against scoring a 2nd goal in a football match
No, they sat back after 17 minutes against Denmark. Shocking. Inept.
Denmark also hit back fairly early, not like they equalised in the 80th
That’s a cop out, every chance goal difference will be a factor on us topping the group should we fail to win
Very doubtful
We don't need XG, we got eyes 🤣
At least we’re overachieving at something.
Classic Southgate strategy of score one and do fuck all for the rest of the match
To put this into perspective our attacking players in the 26 were involved in almost 300 goal involvements between them last season.
The Southgate affect blokes not got a clue
It’s not called a ‘gameweek’ - it’s called a game.
US influenced analysis of soccer ball.
Like I said, if the Southgate-apologists needed more evidence as to how ass England is here it is.
You don’t use XG over a two game sample. We’ve all watched England’s last games, we know how they went, and how poor the performances were.
England have 4 points and have conceded one goal that was a screamer. No ones worried about anything lol.
I swear weirdoes like you only appear at international tournaments. 4 points, Slovenia next. All to fucking play for. Why caught up with hating the manager?! Sure, get rid, but it's another 2 years until the next fucking tournament. Life isn't THAT long
Because the manager is why it's 4 and not 6. https://preview.redd.it/i8tfo8iyz68d1.jpeg?width=923&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ac6763c6455ae099ae1ea3442c2816979614cd47
4 points is basically qualification. It's a knockout tournament, not a league.
Yeah if you’re Turkey and not England
It's a knockout tournament for Turkey, not England? I'm not sure you're all there
I mean the expectations and standards should be higher
Are we going to qualify?
Are we going to win it?
Which team is going to win it?
"Are we going to win it?" Are you a clairvoyant?
Why? France are also “only” on 4. Group stage points don’t matter
And yet under other managers we’ve been worse off after 2 matches WC94 - did not qualify EU96 - 4pts WC98 - 3pts EU00 - 3pts WC02 - 4pts (finished group with 5pts and 2 goals) EU04 - 3pts WC06 - 6pts (having beaten Trinidad and Tobago plus Paraguay) EU08 - did not qualify WC10 - 4pts (beat Slovenia 1-0 and drew 0-0 with Algeria) EU12 - 4pts WC14 - 1pt EU16 - 4pts SOUTHGATE WC18 - 6pts EU20 - 4pts WC22 - 4pts So in 30 years, we have only bettered our current tally after two games twice and one of those times was under Southgate. Under him we’ve never failed to get fewer than 4pts after two games and have always got out the group. So unless every single manager is useless (and Southgate is thus slightly less useless) perhaps he is the reason we have 4 not 1?
At WC10 and WC14 we were on 2 points and 0 points after 2 games. In 2010 we beat Slovenia in a must win game. In 2014 we were already out.
Are you actually watching this shit? You think critics are the weirdos? You think it is all to play for? Bloody Hell.
I think we've had amongst the lowest xG against though, so not sure xG is the litmus test here.
It’s difficult for your opponent to have clear chances when you have your entire team defending in your six yard box.
I knew it was bad but my gosh
Watching the other games I just find all other teams will cross the ball in the box. Cut inside and try a shot. We seem to cut back and pass it round the back four again
England have also only conceded 1.07xG across two games, but let’s not talk about that…
The only number that ultimately matters in the group stages is the number before our name. Currently it is 1 meaning we are top of our group. If we are woeful and it still ends up being 1 I won’t care too much. In the knockout stages xG and everything else means jack. All that matters is which team progresses and which team doesn’t. If we win this tournament playing caveman football Southgate will be knighted and his statue will join Bobby Moores. If his team light up the tournament playing dazzling attacking football but lose the final on penalties, he will be hounded out of the job and vilified.
Do we know which players created that XG for England?
Bowen (!), Bellingham and TAA the only ones with over 0.1 xG assisted
The other 2 there have 1 point each. Not saying we're not doing shit, but they do say it's a sign of a good team to get results at your worst (which I think we can all agree we are rn.) If only we could turn it round
At this point, if we went super attacking, caution to the wind and went out, that would garner a more positive fan and media response than grinding through attritional games with defensive, retreating, percentage-based football.
Kalvin Phillips would double that
bUt WeRE tOp oF tHe gROuP
Ah xG the most flawed metric in football. The probability of chance or goal creation based on what data? The original metrics are sketchy at best. xG is collective data that is basically an average of an average. The worst kind of data point
It’s meant to be used over a larger sample (e.g. a season or a tournament), that’s when it becomes a useful indicator of luck and future performance
The issue with xG when applied to a team is that the individual player is taken completely out of the equation - which makes it shaky.
Yeah I’ve always found it more useful in seeing the ability of individual players to create/take chances
Let’s see what happens on Tuesday. Southgate, I think, finally admitted a problem with the KP quotes. So finally we will get some change in personnel