T O P

  • By -

TallyHo17

Here's why: because Rosie has been calling for this since last year and he needs a W for a change


Original_Lab628

Rosie has been wrong for 20 years straight, it’s statistically difficult to be wrong for this long since it’s 50/50


cryptoentre

Mostly because federal and provinces are mostly all running huge deficits and can’t afford the interest on them. We’re bankrupting ourselves. So either the government or the central bank blinks.


manuce94

He was dead wrong on S&P he is broken clock economist.


kang_ca

He makes money by selling subscriptions and is present on news channels for paid gigs because he is an 'expert.' LOL


danieldukh

Hahahaha.


eskimoafrican

Your profile pic looked like a hair. I kept trying to rub it off.


SmashRus

Maybe he’s complaining because he’s a landlord because landlords are the one screaming the loudest about rate cuts.


big_galoote

Nah, interest is tax deductible for landlords, so they're okay.


Tricky_Ad_2832

https://preview.redd.it/9z2sg202qhyc1.jpeg?width=4020&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=13bc9fa21ba9fae58779127cd902d82d989efdd9


MustardClementine

I feel like they may make the mistake of a single cut too soon, causing inflation to spiral out of control due to outsized exuberance and excitement from the cut-crazies (because everything happens to extremes these days). Then, they'll quickly respond by raising rates again, and that's when everything will truly come crashing down (because, as mentioned, everything goes to extremes now). We shall see!


HotIntroduction8049

add in the plethora of cash coming in 2025 from the fed party in power trying to buy votes.


Tricky_Ad_2832

Still waiting on my cheque from the last election.


Lightning_Catcher258

Honestly, people are so stretched out I doubt a small rate cut would create a crazy spiral. We'll see a few weeks of excess from all the rate crazies, but it will run out of fuel very fast. And bagholders will jump on the occasion to offload, which could lead to oversupply in the housing market, and then, a crash in prices.


MustardClementine

I could easily see that scenario, too. I actually think yours might just be a better expression of what I intuit - a few weeks of excess that will run out of fuel very quickly. The one scenario I definitely don't see is any sort of sustained price growth, for quite a while. I just don't see any real pressure out there, no matter how much people may bleat on about stuffing six international students in a closet and charging them $2,500 each for the privilege. My partner just went out a while ago and noticed that the Beer Store near us in the Riverside/Leslieville area was closed early due to no available staff; restaurants were nearly empty on a Saturday night; even the grocery store was oddly quiet, he said (it was a Loblaws, though, so that may be because of the boycott). Just lots of eerie quiet and a whole lot of nothing going on out there. It all feels very recession-like, much more so than I remember 2008 feeling here (as we never really got hit that bad then).


TheBeneficent

Nah man roads are jammed all the time; malls are packed; car and boat prices still absurdly high (although better).  We’ve got a ways to go.


daga2222

a small rate cut won't do anything to buoy the economy. There are deep, deep structural issues here which will require deep, deep cuts. And we will get those cuts eventually. a small rate cut \*may\* bring out some of the folks waiting on the sidelines to enter the housing market. People forget that housing is a supply vs demand equation. This is why shoebox condos are experiencing rapid price declines. No one wants to live in a shoebox condo, and there are thousands of them held by investors. The price will eventually settle at the supply vs demand equilibrium. If you're focusing on rates and macroeconomic conditions to predict housing prices, you are looking at the wrong picture entirely. Rates and macroeconomic conditions are simply a blip in time. They delay the inevitable. The inevitable is supply and demand. Now, it's up to you to decide where the supply and demand equation shakes out in the long term. But I would suggest you start with first principles: On one hand, you can believe prices will go up because of inflation, low housing starts, current immigration, historically low borrowing costs in Canada, and the desirability of the GTA as a place to live. (the GTA is well protected from climate change, has a relatively low barrier to entry, and Canada is a safe country with high quality of life.) On the other hand you can believe prices will go down because all of these factors will reverse. Inflation is a reality of modern economies so that won't change, but you could have the government clamp down on immigration and invest in building more homes. Rates may stay high which means borrowing costs will permanently be higher. The GTA may also become a less desirable place to live relative to other regions in the world. Which do you believe to be true? I believe home prices will go down in real terms, but go up in nominal terms. The sticker price of homes will climb slightly higher, but the value of homes, relative to inflation, will go down. People predicting a crash are not thinking from first principles. The most likely scenario here is that the price you pay for a home stays flat or increases slightly, while your wage growth and earnings, combined with lower rates in the future, makes that home affordable for you. **Prices don't need to go down for homes to be more affordable.**


Carradona

BoC is likely going to cut in line with the ECB in June. Softening US employment data and recent wage data could also change Fed sentiment heading into Sept. We will see!


canadatax-

They need to save the currency. Any fools who think they will do more than one test cut of .25 this year is a total wacko lunatic.


Euler007

I went to A&W, took one double teen, and one papa burger. No drinks, no fries. 22$. The rates need to go up, not down. Edit: the second burger was for someone else, not that it matters to the conversation.


Tricky_Ad_2832

Yeah man, burgflation is real. Teen burger has been my go to for the past 7 years and it's been steadily going up even pre panny.


Euler007

Costco food court is the only place I don't leave hungry, and by far the cheapest.


MyPeppers

You need the rates to go up because you need cheaper burgers? Btw those burgers were cheaper when rates were lower….


pippylepooh

So... you're causing inflation. Stop buying food you fat cat.


Bewaretheicespiders

But then, thats just 22 *Canadian* dollars.


worldtravelerfromda6

Trudeau needs to stop spending money. Also these fast food places and loblaws are price gouging. Stop spending money there.


big_galoote

That's your own fault for not waiting for a Leaf or Jays win. $2 teen or $5 teen + fries.


Habsfan_2000

You ordered two full meals and tried to pretend there was someone else in the car. Don’t blow smoke up the ass of this sub!


Tricky_Ad_2832

"They gave me 3 sets of cutlery again"


BonusPlantInfinity

I’m fine with restaurant prices being high because they are a horrible waste of money and (most) are bad for your health - grocery price mark-ups should be capped and/or there should be a not-for-profit grocier introduced that just covers cost of operation and offers essential foodstuffs without ‘frills’.


big_galoote

Well as long as you're fine with things that won't affect you.


big_galoote

Heads up, BOGO teen burgers today in app. :)


LiamMcPoylesEye1

So don’t go back?


Saten_level0

It's the opposite. We need lower rates to increase demand and production volume which allows for lower costs and more competition and therefore cheaper burgers. When cost goes up you can't lower the price. Inflation and growth are not the same. The current monetary policy is not working. Maybe we need to up the reserve requirement and change the fiscal policy


Stikeman

Well first of all that’s basically 4 burgers. But anyway, nothing to do with interest rates. It’s climate change. Severe weather and drought are causing food- especially beef- prices to increase.


big_galoote

My eye just rolled all the way back into my head. I hope you're happy. I think it's gone now.


eatvenom

Id predict 0.25 this year and maybe another 0.25-0.5 next year. I can’t see rates going below 4 ever again


syaz136

!remindme 2025


RemindMeBot

I will be messaging you in 1 year on [**2025-05-04 00:00:00 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2025-05-04%2000:00:00%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/TorontoRealEstate/comments/1ckc2zk/david_rosenberg_why_the_bank_of_canada_needs_to/l2m4o2l/?context=3) [**2 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FTorontoRealEstate%2Fcomments%2F1ckc2zk%2Fdavid_rosenberg_why_the_bank_of_canada_needs_to%2Fl2m4o2l%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202025-05-04%2000%3A00%3A00%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201ckc2zk) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|


Pale_Change_666

Well 4 to 5% over night lending rates are historical averages prior to the 2008 financial crisis. So really things are back to normal with the current rates, we just got used to cheap money for the last 15 years.


blackSwanCan

That's true. The catch is that housing prices have grown exponentially in Canada since then, while income growth has not kept up. Unlike earlier, now people simply can't afford homes in Canada even with white collared jobs.  With millions of new low-skilled immigrants, the average income is set to drop even further, while the demand keeps the housing prices elevated.  When or iff this bubble eventually bursts, we can end up with a worse financial crisis than what US had. I don't think any Canadian government will allow that.


Pale_Change_666

Well, hince why the the potential rate cut. All they're doing is kicking the can down the road, and we are running out of road. The correction will happen eventually, you can only blow a bubble for so long. O yeah when our housing bubble bursts it's going to make 2008 US look like Disneyland in comparison. Since their economy is a lot more diverse than ours, so there's other industries and business sectors to fall back on for economic recovery. Where as in Canada housing IS THE economy aside from selling raw materials at a discount ( WTI vs WCS differential) and monopolies in telecom, groceries and airlines. I'm sure this comment will get downvoted, but I'm not under the illusion our economy is actually productive lol.


Saten_level0

There's no bubble and housing prices probably won't crash when there's always demand for housing. Having said that, house prices may not go up anymore or come down slightly. Borrowing 4x your income and paying 6% interest is stupid to begin with. Everyone fell for the trap expecting prices to go up forever. Guess what, they're not going up anymore and fools have no choice but to pay interest and be poor forever because they can't afford to take a loss on resale. Instead of pouring money into an asset that doesn't appreciate in value, people could be investing elsewhere like treasuries and make a better return. For housing to crash the rates would have to go up astronomically as in we go Volcker. Borrowing 500k at 6% is only 30k in interest p.a. Most people can pay that working a normal full time job. 10% interest and a weak job market would probably do it.


blackSwanCan

I would generally agree. But said that, you got to live somewhere. >Borrowing 500k at 6% is only 30k in interest  Yes, but the problem with that assumption is that even when you assume a 20% deposit, 625K doesn't get you a home in Toronto or Vancouver outskirts. A 400-500 sq ft condo may be, but not a single family home. >10% interest and a weak job market would probably do it. Be careful about what you ask for. A housing crash doesn't just bring down house prices, but also the entire financial industry, services industry, and pretty much the whole economy. And generally speaking, the people who come out on top are the people with money to invest, the very same people who can buy investment properties right now. People who don't have much get crushed even further.


likelytobebanned69

I think you are spot on, I also think they may nudge the rates back up. Remindme! 1 year


blackSwanCan

If they want to bring down Canadian banks, and along with them the entire economy, this would be one way to go.  Roughly 50% of the mortgages are fixed term in the country, which are renewing in the next 2 years. Also, majority of variable folks who were caught holding the bag have been paying interest only are set for renewal in the next 2 years. With a slowing economy, high unemployment numbers, if they stretch the high interests for too long, the whole economy will come down crashing.


speaksofthelight

Exactly this why this will never happen. The government and bank of Canada is ready and waiting to go full retard on mashing the money printer if this happens. The BEST case scenario for bears is the house prices are flat for a couple of years.


BainganPakora

Finally someone sensible


TheBeneficent

“Ever again” is a dangerous statement but it could be many years.


ImpossibleFuel6629

Why? What Canada needs right now is a 50c dollar


Pale_Change_666

It only works if we are a net exporter of manufactured goods like China, Japan, South korea, india and, Vietnam etc. Which we are not lol. If it goes to 50 cents on the dollar, I hope you won't be the first one complaining on " how expensive everything is"


ImpossibleFuel6629

Making things more expensive is what raising rates does. So does increasing the price of imported goods and inputs, while also incentivizing investment. Obviously economic policy has to change along with it.


blackSwanCan

That leads to high inflation again, and much higher rates. And while theoretically it could improve manufacturing and tourism revenues, those are tiny, given the high reliance on revenue from services.  With socialist policies, and higher taxes, it's unlikely American industry will move to Canada, as opposed to Mexico or even Texas. So that pretty much negates the main benefit of depreciation and high rates.


ImpossibleFuel6629

It only leads to higher inflation if nobody responds at all. What would happen is that spending habits would change dramatically and domestically produced or cheaper alternatives would emerge. You would probably have to dramatically adjust the basket but lower purchasing power and reduced imports would ultimately lower “inflation”, which is a joke as it’s measured anyways.


checkerschicken

I heard this exact line about "any cut" on this board a month ago. As on the way up, so the same on the way down: don't fight the Fed.


speaksofthelight

It’s not in their mandate to save the currency. The cuts will come sooner and rates will go lower than you guys expect.


canadatax-

I suggest you do more studying


srtg83

We will hold you to this, you wacko lunatic. At least two cuts this year of a quarter points each, perhaps more, depends how well/poorly the economy performs. My guess is poorer than expected. Easily under 4% by the same time next year. Election year in 2025!!!


Wibbly23

if your economy can't function without completely deflated interest rates, you don't have an economy. canada doesn't even exist as a solvent anything without near zero lending rates and deficit spending funded subsidies there is literally nothing here. it's embarrassing.


[deleted]

[удалено]


Wibbly23

Ha, you're not the only one asking that.


Stikeman

So…you didn’t read the article then. He’s not calling for “completely deflated” rates (whatever that means). He says the current rate is 2.25% above the BOC’s neutral rate at a time when excess supply is likely leading to deflationary conditions.


TaintGrinder

Lmao!


phatster88

Clickbait. You can slam Rosie all day long but he's still around after all these years and all the blunders. What you should listen to is the portfolio suggestion (short then long bonds, utiliities), this is what Rosie does for customers irrespective of the shit Macklem will or won't do for this or that reason.


gi0nna

I think this might be the fifth David Rosenberg opinion piece where he begs for a rate cut in at least two months.


LordTC

I for one can’t wait for 18% rates. If people think things are bad now wait until government spends its entire revenue just servicing the debt and any programs it runs are entirely deficit based. A deficit that leads to an even worse debt crisis the following year. You’ll be able to afford a house maybe but only because the entire country became third world.


whyeah

lmfao the cope in this title and the comments is insane.


Bewaretheicespiders

The debt service cost soars not because of the meager BoC rate, but because the Trudeau government couldnt balance a budget to save Canada.


Korok-Guy

They need to cut rates immediately. Whoever is smart or clever would be buying an investment property immediately


Smoothcringler

Rates need to go higher in order to lower house prices. Specuvestors in real estate - who cares about them.


speaksofthelight

This would kill the entire economy, real estate has already corrected in response to rates 


Smoothcringler

No it hasn’t. Real estate is still massively overpriced. It needs to correct down at least 30% in most markets.


speaksofthelight

Overpriced based on what metric ? It is holding firm and robust even at current rates which are unlikely to go any higher. Vacancy rates are at all time lows, this indicates a real supply demand imbalance. It is unaffordable sure, but that doesn't mean it is overpriced.


Smoothcringler

Way overpriced as they are unaffordable. 20 years of artificially low rates blew up real estate. Factor in inflation, house prices have come down even more in major markets, they’ve got a long way to fall. GTA had a 40% correction in 89-90.


Korok-Guy

Rates will go lower and housing prices will go higher


Smoothcringler

No one can predict where rates will go.


Pale_Change_666

LOL unless if you're a realtor apparently.


Korok-Guy

Everyone knows they will go lower. Only bears and silly doom and cloud forecasters believe they will not go down


speaksofthelight

Not sure why you are getting downvoted inflation is down. And tiff has said they are coming.


Smoothcringler

They were already “guaranteed” to go down in Q1 of this year.


Tricky_Ad_2832

Every realtor I know was saying March 2023 for rate drops. Lol. Lmao even.


urumqi_circles

I know numerous realtors, investors and speculators who have had their entire net worth liquidated over the last 12 months. I think investing in real estate is similar in risk to investing in kryptocurrency these days.


Ancient__Unicorn

They were too leveraged


speaksofthelight

This is the main risk in canadian real estate - you over leverage and cant hold through some small slump (that's do happen from time to time) in the long run everything is fine and they would have made more money if they just held.


TallyHo17

Riiiiight


wontbeabl

No you dont


canadatax-

You're the exact reason why ther will be no cuts this year.


Korok-Guy

You will be negatively surprised


Lightning_Catcher258

Ok realtor


Korok-Guy

I am a home owner and now I am a investor with my investment condominium purchase. I used a realtor to make my investment


Lightning_Catcher258

Ahhhh so a bagholder. I understand why you want rate cuts.


Korok-Guy

Every person is aggressive on this forum. I understand it is renters and priced out people. Do not blame the person who is looking to invest for your issue


Lightning_Catcher258

My issue is not people who invest. My issue is people who want to destroy housing affordability because they bought at crazy high prices and now they're hoping their property keeps going up in value because the market is broken. Cutting rates just for the sake of seeing price appreciations is pure evil greed and I'm very done with lazy people who don't create any wealth and just want to see their property grow to $10 millions in value while the peasants are left living paycheque to paycheque. A normal market sees ups and downs. Canada has only seen ups so far because governments and banks keep rigging it. There's a limit of how much they can rig the market, but as long as they rig it and prevent a crash, pain will only increase.


tkdeveloper

Spoken like a realtor who contributed to the housingcrisis 


Korok-Guy

Investment is a free action anyone can take.


trebuchetwarmachine

Mortgage interest cost and rent are our biggest inflation items. Core cpi has been within target for a while now. The economy is in the shitter and our gdp is trash. They shouldve cut a long time ago but they just mimic the US and cant cut until they do.