he is missing mistakes. that's it. whatever mistake-identifying juice that Davis Schneider drinks, he needs to share with Vladdy. that or someone needs to start microdosing the dude with THC so he can settle the fuck down when he does identify a mistake.
Once he starts turning on that up and in fastball like he can, the home runs are going to start piling up. What’s so special about him as a hitter is that he has the hands to barrel up and in pitches, and the power to easily drive home runs to the opposite field and dead centre. Hes still driving the ball to the big part of the field, but he’s a tick behind on most mistake pitches, which he used to crush.
It’s not hard for me to see his 2021 results as repeatable if he stops missing mistakes early in counts.
to me, it's all about when he's choosing to be passive. it appears as though he gets into prime mistake-crushing counts and is thinking walk first, swing second. the dude is so talented that he should always be swing first as long as possible and then deciding to take. that doesn't mean gearing up for the fastball, necessarily; it means looking fastball, adjusting to anything else (see: grand slam), and focusing on smooth and repeatable swings, rather than gearing up and missing. it's a mindset change that should have approach effects. it may even have mechanical effects.
The problem with Vlad adopting a swing-first mentality, is that when he does that he falls victim to that down and out breaking ball. He's done a fantastic job of laying off of those ugly pitches for possibly the first time in his career, and I'd hate to see a reversion to that.
>It’s not hard for me to see his 2021 results as repeatable if he stops missing mistakes early in counts.
The ol “if you just completely change what you’re doing the results will be different”
He won’t. He had one good year, he won’t be that version of himself again.
I think this is an overly pessimistic outlook. He just turned 25. His 2021 would be difficult for most hitters to ever accomplish, but to think he can’t ever get close to that again is ridiculous to me. Many hitters don’t even reach the big leagues until they are Guerrero’s age.
His batted ball data is not far off from 2021. He is not timing up fastballs over the heart of the plate right now, but if he was able to do that 3 years ago, what’s to stop him from being able to do it again this year, or next year, or the year after that?
> His batted ball data is not far off from 2021. He is not timing up fastballs over the heart of the plate right now, but if he was able to do that 3 years ago, what’s to stop him from being able to do it again this year, or next year, or the year after that?
Its still pretty far off 2021, you need to look deeper than just the raw statcast numbers.
EV on flyballs
+ 2021 - 96.7 MPH
+ 2024 - 94.3 MPH
That 2 MPH drop might not seem like a lot, but its the difference between a HR and a flyout in a lot of cases.
HR% on Flyballs
+ 2021 - 28% (35/125)
+ 2024 - 18% (4/22)
Line Drive Rate (% of Batted balls that are line drives)
+ 2021 - 24.4%
+ 2024 - 20.6%
HR Rate on Linedrives
+ 2021 - 10.8% (13/121)
+ 2024 - 0% (0/21)
So while the overall numbers look fine, only a drop of 1.3 MPH exit velo and a drop of 2.4% in barrels and 0.3% in hard hit, in the specific buckets of Flyballs and Liners you get those issues cropping up. His groundballs have stayed virtually the same, which is propping up the overall stats.
>I think this is an overly pessimistic outlook. He just turned 25. His 2021 would be difficult for most hitters to ever accomplish, but to think he can’t ever get close to that again is ridiculous to me. Many hitters don’t even reach the big leagues until they are Guerrero’s age.
That doesn’t mean anything. People have been using his age for 3 years now and he’s not getting younger. “Oh he’s only 26, oh he’s only 27, oh he’s only 28, well he’s only 29” “remember that one year he was super good”.
Lots of players have one good year and fall off, he would not be the first and not be the last. But since his dad is a hall of famer he gets a lot more leeway when it comes to his performance because people dream of what he might be.
>His batted ball data is not far off from 2021. He is not timing up fastballs over the heart of the plate right now, but if he was able to do that 3 years ago, what’s to stop him from being able to do it again this year, or next year, or the year after that?
What’s stopping any player from performing at their peak level every year of their career?
Theres a line I like that kinda fits well here
“Potential is just another word for ain’t did shit”
That’s where Vlad is, great batted ball data, lots of potential, but not a great player.
> People have been using his age for 3 years now
It's still been true all 3 years though. You gotta remember, he's at the same age as Judge was when he won rookie of the year.
I'm not saying he's going to be as good as Judge, just that he still is young enough that there is still time to reach a certain level of his potential.
>That doesn’t mean anything. People have been using his age for 3 years now and he’s not getting younger.
Not getting younger is actually a good thing statistically for hitters. Historically speaking, most hitters' prime years are from the ages of 26 to 30. 25 was the age when Aaron Judge first broke out.
>“Potential is just another word for ain’t did shit”
I don't really agree that we're talking about potential here. This is his real batted ball data, not what he could be doing. He is hitting the ball hard, and barrelling it consistently. Hitting is a process, and the guys that have good seasons are the one's who's savant pages look like this.
>Not getting younger is actually a good thing statistically for hitters. Historically speaking, most hitters' prime years are from the ages of 26 to 30. 25 was the age when Aaron Judge first broke out.
Key word, broke out, and has consistently performed since. Vlad has 1 great season and 5 average ones. He is who he is.
“Potential is just another word for ain’t did shit”
>I don't really agree that we're talking about potential here. This is his real batted ball data, not what he could be doing. He is hitting the ball hard, and barrelling it consistently. Hitting is a process, and the guys that have good seasons are the one's who's savant pages look like this.
But batted ball data without results is meaningless. It’s just potential.
>Key word, broke out, and has consistently performed since. Vlad has 1 great season and 5 average ones. He is who he is.
It doesn't make sense to me that you think he can never adjust back to what he did so well three years ago, considering that he clearly hasn't fallen off physically. At the same age as Guerrero, Judge was putting up worse numbers in A ball to AAA then Guerrero was putting up at the Major League level. Hitters mature. Like I said to you, he hasn't even entered what is considered the mental and physical prime years for a hitter, and you're ready to claim that he can't improve?
>But batted ball data without results is meaningless. It’s just potential.
This is just asinine.
>It doesn't make sense to me that you think he can never adjust back to what he did so well three years ago, considering that he clearly hasn't fallen off physically. At the same age as Guerrero, Judge was putting up worse numbers in A ball to AAA then Guerrero was putting up at the Major League level. Hitters mature. Like I said to you, he hasn't even entered what is considered the mental and physical prime years for a hitter, and you're ready to claim that he can't improve?
Everything is saying he **should** be better but he isn’t. So rationally you would, after 3 seasons start to think “maybe he isn’t as good as the numbers say he could be” instead of the yearly “batted ball statistics” posts.
>This is just asinine
What’s asinine is the yearly “look at what vladdy could be” posts based on his savant page.
>Everything is saying he **should** be better but he isn’t. So rationally you would, after 3 seasons start to think “maybe he isn’t as good as the numbers say he could be” instead of the yearly “batted ball statistics” posts.
Its not 3 seasons, it is one season, and one month. In 2019 his xWOBA was 4 points lower than his actual. In 2020, identical. In 2021, 2 points lower. In 2022, identical.
I'm sorry you have to deal with these posts one time per year, truly.
>What’s asinine is the yearly “look at what vladdy could be” posts based on his savant page.
Whats asinine is you trying to say that batted ball data is not an example of results, but merely potential. Hitting the ball hard is the result of a good plate appearance. Getting lots of xbhs is the result of hitting the ball hard. Hard hit rate is more predictive of future success than actual success.
his bbref page doesn't project out past 25, which is what you are trying to do. to make those projections, you're leaning on anecdotes about past players who have been one-and-done, albeit without naming them and comparing the to Guerrero. so you're right, it's anecdotal, *at best*.
>his bbref page doesn't project out past 25, which is what you are trying to do.
No im going off of what he has done so far. Which is one elite season and a few good ones.
>To make those projections, you're leaning on anecdotes about past players who have been one-and-done, albeit without naming them and comparing the to Guerrero. so you're right, it's anecdotal, at best.
And the other end is doing what? Leaning on anecdotes about his hard hit percentage for 3 years now.
I’m using actual performance, you’re using expected performance, it’s not the same.
You can google “one and done players in mlb” and see lots of examples.
the burden is not on me to make your argument.
and, if you look at my comments, I am putting the eye test to the numbers presented. it's an explanation borne of analysis, which includes observation and the utilization of analytics. as a not so numbersy person, I'm generally up front about how I skew toward the eye test.
I can Google one and dones, no question, but if I do that, I'll be cherry-picking data to meet my needs because there's going to be cases that apply to the breakout and bust categories. that's why it is so frustrating to go down these holes with the pessimists: I never see a solid argument borne of analysis. pick the player you think is representative and make that argument as to why they are. or don't, it's reddit, and your level of engagement is completely voluntary. but don't be surprised when someone responds to you with some level of critique.
Davis has the mentality it takes to be a pro. Vladdy has the skill but not the pro mentality. His name and his talent carry him but until he gets his shit together mentally he’ll just be another frustrating can’t miss prospect who never lived up to the hype.
This has been the narrative for a couple seasons now. I’m curious if there are any other players that profile similar to this or whose expected outcomes are so much better
We may never see what we saw in 2021 again, but the last two years, he has underperformed his batted ball data, and there really isn't a great explanation for it, considering before last year, his expected and actual stats were virtually identical.
He is definitely missing mistakes this year, which is contributing to his slow start, but I really can't see a reason to not evantually expect things to even out for him.
What are your thoughts on him consistently having low sweet spot numbers? Even in 2021 he was only in the 50th percentile. It's his biggest outlier stat when compared to his other numbers. Would it really be enough to have him underperform his peripherals this much consistently?
Sweet spot doesn’t mean actually finding the sweet spot of the bat. It’s batted balls in a specific range of launch angles, which as we know launch angle is his Achilles heel
I don't know a lot about the metric. To me, barrels seems significantly more important for a hitter at face value. To me, based on definition, it just seems to favour hitters who hit a lot of fly balls, without taking into account the quality of the contact. I'm not sure I'd consider it a big difference maker.
At the same time, it is the largest difference between MVP Guerrero and Guerrero for the last few years, so I'm sure it can't be meaningless for him. Its just weird to me that his launch angle has improved, his barrels are near the top of the league, yet somehow his sweet spot percentage has gone down.
A great barrel rate, solid launch angle, and low sweet spot percentage are a weird combo. Thinking about it, it kind of has to be that Vlad has a lot of launch angle variability, right?
So he's averaging 9.6° (which is in sweet spot range, but the low end of it). But he doesn't actually land in the range super often, he's instead both topping AND getting under more pitches than the average player. Because he's doing lots of both, he ends up with a LA in the middle.
When he does get in the sweet spot, he's turning those into barrels at a rate like almost nobody else in baseball, so he still has a great barrel rate.
The hard hit and EV also mean that when he misses (but doesn't whiff) the ball screams, just in the wrong directions.
Maybe there's the paradox on display here of being so good at getting to any ball that you'll cover stuff that nobody else can get to, but that still won't turn into a great hit?
Great barrel rate but low sweet spot means he hits it hard but still struggles with launch angle. Barrels are optimal launch and optimal exit velo. Sweet spot just means optimal launch. So basically his bat speed is so good that those sweet spots are also barrels more than the average Joe.
Baseball Savant and their metrics weren't around back then, but I always point to Jose Bautista. He had to bounce around a bit, get passed on despite his obvious talent, and work on the finer points of his swing before he turned into one of the best hitters the Blue Jays franchise has ever seen.
I don't know all the ins and outs of how xBA is calculated, but my guess is that his exit velocity somehow tricks the algorithm into thinking he should be performing better, as though a 110 mph ground ball is substantially better than a 95 mph one. I've seen a few other similar struggling power hitters with the same problem.
One that is actually similar in they dramatically under perform is one time Blue Jays DH Kendrys Morales.
Guerrero generates a lot of bad spin on balls and they end up routinely 30-50 feet short of where they are expected to land.
As a (somewhat decent) golfer, a slice is amplified by swinging steep as it causes more spin. If you look at that Joe siddal thread it shows he’s swinging steep.
Very true, I should have added that to this post, but his xBA on fastballs this season is attrocious. I think it is a timing issue. Many at bats he seems to be sitting on fastballs early, puts a good swing on them, but is just a tick behind.
Yup. Not a hitting expert, but the ones on the broadcast keep saying he's late on them.
In 2021, what made him exceptional was he was the best fastball hitter in the game. If he can get back to even part of that, he'll be ok.
It’s the belt high and in pitch that he used to easily get his hands to that he’s just not hitting right now. Remember the home run he hit off Cole at the start of 2021, where the pitch was like 6 inches inside, and he managed to pull his hands inside to absolutely launch it?
That’s what made him a special hitter, and what I think he will get back to. There are very few hitters in baseball that have his combination of power and barrel to ball skills. He has a lot of moving parts in his load though, so it’s not hard to see where timing issues may arise from.
At a certain point, if he’s just continually underperforming his expected results, that’s just who he is, an outlier.
However, for me with Vlad it’s always been two things, doing damage on mistakes and not chasing. He does one, he’s an all star. He does both, he’s an MVP. As far as damage on mistakes goes, I think it’s pretty obvious his timing is just off, regardless of what pitch it is. He’s just consistently late. Chase wise, not all chases are created equal. He might not be chasing a bunch overall, but there’s still been way too many swings on pitches that aren’t close. When you chase a couple inches out of the zone, you can still foul that off (or even take it deep if your as good as Vladdy can be), but if you chase a foot out of the zone, there aren’t many good outcomes.
Admittedly that’s just my attempt to square the data with the eye test, so maybe I’m completely wrong. I’d also say he does look like he’s coming around. Fewer bad chases and at least turning those mistakes into hits more often.
>At a certain point, if he’s just continually underperforming his expected results, that’s just who he is, an outlier.
I don't disagree with this statement on the whole, but I'd argue that right now, the outlier IS him underperforming his expected stats. In 2019, his WOBA was 4 points lower than his xWOBA. In 2020 they were identical. In 2021, his WOBA was 2 points below his xWOBA. In 2022, they were identical. It is just in the last season and one month that he has underperformed his xWOBA by roughly 40 points. It may be the start of a bad trend, but I would lean more on the outlier side for now.
In terms of the chase rate, that has never concerned me with him. Even in his best season, there were still plenty of at bats where he would wail away at sliders a foot out of the zone. It is a weakness for him, but I think it just comes down to how he keyholes pitches. He may miss that pitch badly, but at his best he is missing that pitch because he is all over the fastball early in counts.
Yeah honestly surprised his rookie year was in line with his expected numbers, would have expected something more similar to this year. Would agree there’s a decent possibility the numbers come back around, but it’s a large enough sample size to consider other explanations, even if it’s just some context the data isn’t accounting for.
I don’t remember him chasing as badly as he is now back in 21’, but to be fair, you aren’t going to be chasing as many bad 2 strike sliders if you hit the ball 400 ft before you get to two strikes, so his issues are definitely intertwined. Human nature tends to gloss over the bad when you had the type of year he had also.
To be honest, I don’t fully understand sweet spot percentage, or how it can vary so greatly from barrel percentage, so it’s tough for me to say how significant it is that Guerrero ranks so low in it. For most of his career, he ranks very poorly in this category, but it was up to 50th percentile in 2021, so to me, it inarguably means something.
sweet spot% is fundamentally about launch angle. he ranks so low because his average launch angle isn't good, especially when filtered by high exit velo. barrel%, by contrast, is a measure that looks at xBA and xSLG, as far as I understand it.
it's, again, missing mistakes and making hard contact on fairly good pitchers' pitches. he's getting too much loft or not enough (and not pulling the ball effectively when he does put hard contact in the air).
I guess what I'm getting at is that per savant, a barrel is "A batted ball with the perfect combination of exit velocity and launch angle", while sweet spot is "A batted-ball event with a launch angle between eight and 32 degrees.".
I can't really wrap my head around how a player can have such a low sweetspot percentage with such a high barrel percentage.
As EV goes up so does the barrel range, so basically Vladdy hits the ball so hard that most of the balls hit within the sweet spot are also barrels.
The definition of a barrel is a launch angle and EV combination that leads to .500 xBA and 1.500 xSLG, this includes towering flyballs to CF, which normally are long gone due to pulled/oppo HRs
Vladdy has 13 barrels on the year and 30 sweet spots. 19 of those sweet spots were over 100 MPH.
Other players will hit the ball softer and have more 10 degree launch angles that don't count as barrels. Springer for example has 7 barrels, but because he doesn't hit the ball as hard he has a lot more sweet spot hits that aren't counting as barrels (41)
Matt Chapman last year hit a number of barrel fly balls to centre field. For instance, a 100 mph 30 degree batted ball is going to have high xSLG as expected stats don’t consider spray chart (pull, centre, oppo), and pulled fly balls produces the most homers. Though that batted ball to centre field might just be a 380ft fly out. Pair that with low sweet spot and his high percentage of “automatic outs” (28% K rate and 11.3% pop up rate), and you get excellent hard hit stats with an okay triple slash.
Copying my comment but elsewhere but its just an LA problem, he has power all the time but too often its into the dirt. Vladdy likely has a tiny amount of batted balls in the sweet spot but with not enough power for a barrel:
Most players don't drill the ball into the ground as much as Vladdy. When he manages to not drill it into the ground, he is hitting it hard quite often so he ends up with lots of barrels but overall few balls hit in the sweet spot launch angle area overall.
For an example look at Schneider vs Vladdy. similar barrel rates (Schneider is actually way higher), but Schneider has 50% flyball rate with an overall LA of 23 degrees and Vladdy has 32% flyball rate and LA of 9.6 degrees.
He's just smacking it into the ground too often, the why has been befuddling everyone since 2022. Seems something mechnically is off which is messing with his timing
all that means is balls hit in not the sweet spot were closer to it than otherwise. So maybe less negative angle balls and they were closer to 8 than before. So he can increase average LA while having crap sweet spot %
it's the high EV filter that accounts for the difference, as far as I understand. I understand it enough for my needs, and it isn't something I would generally lean on, so it might be best to learn the difference from other users.
"I can't really wrap my head around how a player can have such a low sweetspot percentage with such a high barrel percentage."
This. I'm having the same confusion. Hence my question above.
Most players don't drill the ball into the ground as much as Vladdy. When he manages to not drill it into the ground, he is hitting it hard quite often so he ends up with lots of barrels but overall few balls hit in the sweet spot launch angle area overall.
For an example look at Schneider vs Vladdy. similar barrel rates (Schneider is actually way higher), but Schneider has 50% flyball rate with an overall LA of 23 degrees and Vladdy has 32% flyball rate and LA of 9.6 degrees.
He's just smacking it into the ground too often, the why has been befuddling everyone since 2022. Seems something mechnically is off which is messing with his timing
Sweet spot is just launch angle between 8 to 32 degrees. Barrel is a ball hit at least 98 mph EV between 26-30 launch angle with that range expanding as EV increases. So a ball hit 105 mph would be barrel if launch angle is between 19-37.
Keep in mind even during his 2021 season Vladdy’s sweet spot was only 50%. Players who put a lot of ball in play will usually have lower sweet spot %.
I have a tough time wrapping my head around it as well. From my reading of their definitions, ss% is just hitting a ball at a good launch angle (8 to 32 degrees) but doesn't care how hard you hit it. A barrel is just defined as the perfect combination of exit velo and launch angle. To me, barrels seems like a much more predictive stat at face value, yet sweet spot percentage is probably the biggest difference between Guerrero now and Guerrero in 2021.
Tbf he went 2/4 with a grand slam on Sunday and genuinely looked like he read the pitcher perfectly in that AB. Not a breakout but if he goes on a tear for the next week or two that’ll be the game people look back at
Too bad they went directly into an off day so that momentum’s probably died off
He's also on an 8 game hit streak. If our leadoff hitter actually got on base one in a while, chances are that Vladdy has a few more RBI and more people would realize he's actually been heating up a bit.
> Not a breakout but if he goes on a tear for the next week or two that’ll be the game people look back at
No it isn't, like I said it needs to translate into a week or two of good ABs to be meaningful
Honestly the biggest surprise here is that his arm velocity is only 40th percentile.
He doesn't get to show it off much playing 1st, but damn I always thought he had a cannon.
This is why I can't get on board with the "DUMP VLADDY, HE'S NOT EVER GONNA BE HIS 2021 SELF AGAIN" crowd. They love to mock him not being Barry Bonds yet and love even more to mock the notion of underlying metrics and advanced stats because they're fully invested in results-only reactions (which, to be honest, is fair, because as fans, we should care most about results, wins, and success), but losing out on all this potential to another team would be heartbreaking.
I have no idea why it hasn't been translating better these last few years. It's clearly that he has otherworldly talent and can hit the absolute shit out of the ball. It's clear he has the ability to not swing at nonsense (which is backed up by his 71st percentile chase rate), but he gets defined by angry fans as someone who only strikes out on low-and-outside pitches. If he can get more aggressive on first pitches and punish mistakes, a lot can turn around.
The other side of it is he's going to be a free agent after next season. Are we really going to re-sign him after many years of mediocrity? Unfortunately, he might have to leave the Jays to reach his potential. Whatever we're doing isn't working so far.
I don't think I would call it mediocrity. People think of it as mediocrity because expectations that were set after 2021. He's shown enough the past two seasons that he is absolutely worth a long-term deal. He's got this year to start showing it.
Bo and Vlad mash when they're allowed to swing away. Whoever has been teaching them to have an eye might be a sound fundamentalist, but there are certain players who excel outside of fundamentals. The swing at the first pitch brothers need to swing at the first pitches.
Eh. Vlad has underperformed for years. This is just what he is unless he proves different.
Probably time to trade him.
Sign Bo, hes been consistent. As soon as the ink dries move him to second.
Average launch angle means nothing if you hit a bunch of ground balls and pop ups. Look at the definition of sweet spot percentage, that's where you want your LA to be
Seems like he has completely lost the ability to get the ball in air to dead left field. The GS was nice and maybe he is breaking out of it, but it seems like his hard contact is on the ground or in the air to center.
When the cement mixer slider came down in 2015, there were 3-4 guys on that team where you knew it was going to be in the left field bleachers before it reached home plate. Vladdy's timing just doesn't seem to be consistent. He's just as likely to foul pop those pitches as he is to do some damage.
Sweet spot % is such an important stat because it’s the difference between the output of Vlad and the output of Davis when the other metrics are all really good.
I have no idea if it’s predictive or not but it is certainly a skill and I think Savant needs to factor it into the expected stats a lot more.
It has less to do with sweet spot percentage and more to do with spray angle, which expected stats do not use. Spray angle is left out of the calculation due to the fact that when included it becomes less predictive for the average player. However, without spray angle being included some players will get mismatched. On one hand you have Vladdy who is hitting a lot of deep CF flyballs, which will have a high xBA and xwOBA due to the lack of spray (most pulled balls hit that hard are HRs). On the other hand you have Schneider who is a dead pull hitter doesn't have that boost.
**Since 2023, Vladdy has hit 20 fly-balls to CF with an EV of 100 MPH or higher.**
He had 16 flyouts, 3 home runs and 1 double. The actual stats were (.200 BA, .700 SLG, .368 wOBA) but the expected stats were (.644 xBA, 2.392 xSLG, 1.220 xwOBA
**In 2021, he had 21 fly-balls to CF with an EV of 100 MPH or higher.**
He had 9 flyouts, 11 home runs and 1 double. The actual stats were (.571 BA, 2.190 SLG, 1.110 wOBA) but the expected stats were (.763 xBA, 2.843 xSLG, 1.453 xwOBA)
So he's lost a little bit of power/distance (as you can see the expected stats dropped a bit) which is turning those HR to CF to flyouts, but because spray isn't being included those extra 10 feet of distance he lost isn't being punished as hard as it should be.
Sweet Spot is more a measure of how effective you are at harnessing your power into good contact, high EV and low SS, you're hitting a ton of hard groundballs or towering flyballs
>the current team hitting philosophy to only swing at pitches they can do damage on.
Sounds pretty brain-dead to me. Why have a lineup of balanced hitters when you can be picky and have the league worst risp?
>Why have a lineup of balanced hitters when you can be picky and have the league worst risp?
The goal is obviously not to have poor numbers with RISP. Being selective is actually generally a way to improve with RISP, since you want to swing at pitches you can get to the outfield.
Tell me what team has a philosophy that okays swinging at bad pitches? The difference is some have hitters who can hit bad pitches. If our hitters can't even hit the meatballs, what's the point?
uh, you started this, big guy.
>The goal is obviously
I never even directed my comment at you, lol.
>Being selective is actually generally a way to improve with RISP
If you're failing to achieve the goal year after year with the same approach, I generally believe it's failing.
Ok, good for you.
>If you're failing to achieve the goal year after year with the same approach, I generally believe it's failing.
This approach was a point of emphasis for the current season, not the last few years.
He has ran out all his ground outs from what I've seen, but I haven't caught every game. I can't say I see his problems relating to a lack of effort this year.
He dogged on one play in the Nats series, he ended up being safe because the error was really bad, but had he gotten out he could have killed an early rally by not [hustling](https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/cTgzM2xfWGw0TUFRPT1fQWdsUVhWUU5VZ1VBV1FBR1h3QUFCMWNGQUZsUUFsY0FBQVlDQ1FvRlZ3UUVVd0pX.mp4)
Overall that's the only effort point I've seen all year
If I hit a homer I would be doing a fucking cartwheel between 1st and 2nd. Who cares what he does on his home run trots let people enjoy their accomplishments
he is missing mistakes. that's it. whatever mistake-identifying juice that Davis Schneider drinks, he needs to share with Vladdy. that or someone needs to start microdosing the dude with THC so he can settle the fuck down when he does identify a mistake.
Once he starts turning on that up and in fastball like he can, the home runs are going to start piling up. What’s so special about him as a hitter is that he has the hands to barrel up and in pitches, and the power to easily drive home runs to the opposite field and dead centre. Hes still driving the ball to the big part of the field, but he’s a tick behind on most mistake pitches, which he used to crush. It’s not hard for me to see his 2021 results as repeatable if he stops missing mistakes early in counts.
to me, it's all about when he's choosing to be passive. it appears as though he gets into prime mistake-crushing counts and is thinking walk first, swing second. the dude is so talented that he should always be swing first as long as possible and then deciding to take. that doesn't mean gearing up for the fastball, necessarily; it means looking fastball, adjusting to anything else (see: grand slam), and focusing on smooth and repeatable swings, rather than gearing up and missing. it's a mindset change that should have approach effects. it may even have mechanical effects.
The problem with Vlad adopting a swing-first mentality, is that when he does that he falls victim to that down and out breaking ball. He's done a fantastic job of laying off of those ugly pitches for possibly the first time in his career, and I'd hate to see a reversion to that.
you aren't getting that pitch 2-1 or 3-1 very often. that's when he needs to be swing first because that's when he seems to be most passive.
>It’s not hard for me to see his 2021 results as repeatable if he stops missing mistakes early in counts. The ol “if you just completely change what you’re doing the results will be different” He won’t. He had one good year, he won’t be that version of himself again.
I think this is an overly pessimistic outlook. He just turned 25. His 2021 would be difficult for most hitters to ever accomplish, but to think he can’t ever get close to that again is ridiculous to me. Many hitters don’t even reach the big leagues until they are Guerrero’s age. His batted ball data is not far off from 2021. He is not timing up fastballs over the heart of the plate right now, but if he was able to do that 3 years ago, what’s to stop him from being able to do it again this year, or next year, or the year after that?
> His batted ball data is not far off from 2021. He is not timing up fastballs over the heart of the plate right now, but if he was able to do that 3 years ago, what’s to stop him from being able to do it again this year, or next year, or the year after that? Its still pretty far off 2021, you need to look deeper than just the raw statcast numbers. EV on flyballs + 2021 - 96.7 MPH + 2024 - 94.3 MPH That 2 MPH drop might not seem like a lot, but its the difference between a HR and a flyout in a lot of cases. HR% on Flyballs + 2021 - 28% (35/125) + 2024 - 18% (4/22) Line Drive Rate (% of Batted balls that are line drives) + 2021 - 24.4% + 2024 - 20.6% HR Rate on Linedrives + 2021 - 10.8% (13/121) + 2024 - 0% (0/21) So while the overall numbers look fine, only a drop of 1.3 MPH exit velo and a drop of 2.4% in barrels and 0.3% in hard hit, in the specific buckets of Flyballs and Liners you get those issues cropping up. His groundballs have stayed virtually the same, which is propping up the overall stats.
>I think this is an overly pessimistic outlook. He just turned 25. His 2021 would be difficult for most hitters to ever accomplish, but to think he can’t ever get close to that again is ridiculous to me. Many hitters don’t even reach the big leagues until they are Guerrero’s age. That doesn’t mean anything. People have been using his age for 3 years now and he’s not getting younger. “Oh he’s only 26, oh he’s only 27, oh he’s only 28, well he’s only 29” “remember that one year he was super good”. Lots of players have one good year and fall off, he would not be the first and not be the last. But since his dad is a hall of famer he gets a lot more leeway when it comes to his performance because people dream of what he might be. >His batted ball data is not far off from 2021. He is not timing up fastballs over the heart of the plate right now, but if he was able to do that 3 years ago, what’s to stop him from being able to do it again this year, or next year, or the year after that? What’s stopping any player from performing at their peak level every year of their career? Theres a line I like that kinda fits well here “Potential is just another word for ain’t did shit” That’s where Vlad is, great batted ball data, lots of potential, but not a great player.
> People have been using his age for 3 years now It's still been true all 3 years though. You gotta remember, he's at the same age as Judge was when he won rookie of the year.
Yeah and what has judge done since that season?
I'm not saying he's going to be as good as Judge, just that he still is young enough that there is still time to reach a certain level of his potential.
But at the same time we have been doing this for 3 years now. Are we going to do it for 10 more years?
He's still young though...we can keep doing it until that no longer qualifies, and we can debate that age, but it's definitely not at 25.
Leafs get eliminated and now you need to vent. I get it
Hit very well, in the exact age range considered to be a hitter's prime.
Hey you figured out the difference between the two. Happy for you.
I can explain what the difference in age makes for a hitter to you, but I'm sorry to say, I can't understand it for you.
Win MVP two years ago, wtf is this take
That’s my point. He’s been good since he broke out, Vlad has gotten worse.
>That doesn’t mean anything. People have been using his age for 3 years now and he’s not getting younger. Not getting younger is actually a good thing statistically for hitters. Historically speaking, most hitters' prime years are from the ages of 26 to 30. 25 was the age when Aaron Judge first broke out. >“Potential is just another word for ain’t did shit” I don't really agree that we're talking about potential here. This is his real batted ball data, not what he could be doing. He is hitting the ball hard, and barrelling it consistently. Hitting is a process, and the guys that have good seasons are the one's who's savant pages look like this.
>Not getting younger is actually a good thing statistically for hitters. Historically speaking, most hitters' prime years are from the ages of 26 to 30. 25 was the age when Aaron Judge first broke out. Key word, broke out, and has consistently performed since. Vlad has 1 great season and 5 average ones. He is who he is. “Potential is just another word for ain’t did shit” >I don't really agree that we're talking about potential here. This is his real batted ball data, not what he could be doing. He is hitting the ball hard, and barrelling it consistently. Hitting is a process, and the guys that have good seasons are the one's who's savant pages look like this. But batted ball data without results is meaningless. It’s just potential.
>Key word, broke out, and has consistently performed since. Vlad has 1 great season and 5 average ones. He is who he is. It doesn't make sense to me that you think he can never adjust back to what he did so well three years ago, considering that he clearly hasn't fallen off physically. At the same age as Guerrero, Judge was putting up worse numbers in A ball to AAA then Guerrero was putting up at the Major League level. Hitters mature. Like I said to you, he hasn't even entered what is considered the mental and physical prime years for a hitter, and you're ready to claim that he can't improve? >But batted ball data without results is meaningless. It’s just potential. This is just asinine.
>It doesn't make sense to me that you think he can never adjust back to what he did so well three years ago, considering that he clearly hasn't fallen off physically. At the same age as Guerrero, Judge was putting up worse numbers in A ball to AAA then Guerrero was putting up at the Major League level. Hitters mature. Like I said to you, he hasn't even entered what is considered the mental and physical prime years for a hitter, and you're ready to claim that he can't improve? Everything is saying he **should** be better but he isn’t. So rationally you would, after 3 seasons start to think “maybe he isn’t as good as the numbers say he could be” instead of the yearly “batted ball statistics” posts. >This is just asinine What’s asinine is the yearly “look at what vladdy could be” posts based on his savant page.
>Everything is saying he **should** be better but he isn’t. So rationally you would, after 3 seasons start to think “maybe he isn’t as good as the numbers say he could be” instead of the yearly “batted ball statistics” posts. Its not 3 seasons, it is one season, and one month. In 2019 his xWOBA was 4 points lower than his actual. In 2020, identical. In 2021, 2 points lower. In 2022, identical. I'm sorry you have to deal with these posts one time per year, truly. >What’s asinine is the yearly “look at what vladdy could be” posts based on his savant page. Whats asinine is you trying to say that batted ball data is not an example of results, but merely potential. Hitting the ball hard is the result of a good plate appearance. Getting lots of xbhs is the result of hitting the ball hard. Hard hit rate is more predictive of future success than actual success.
I think you either completely misunderstand what batted ball data is, or you just have a hate boner for Vlad
No misunderstanding. No hate boner. I’m just not hopelessly optimistic like a lot of people here.
entirely anecdotal, non-specific, and vague tangent with a definitive statement appended from a doomer: name a more iconic duo.
Lmao there’s nothing anecdotal about it, go look at his bbref page
his bbref page doesn't project out past 25, which is what you are trying to do. to make those projections, you're leaning on anecdotes about past players who have been one-and-done, albeit without naming them and comparing the to Guerrero. so you're right, it's anecdotal, *at best*.
>his bbref page doesn't project out past 25, which is what you are trying to do. No im going off of what he has done so far. Which is one elite season and a few good ones. >To make those projections, you're leaning on anecdotes about past players who have been one-and-done, albeit without naming them and comparing the to Guerrero. so you're right, it's anecdotal, at best. And the other end is doing what? Leaning on anecdotes about his hard hit percentage for 3 years now. I’m using actual performance, you’re using expected performance, it’s not the same. You can google “one and done players in mlb” and see lots of examples.
the burden is not on me to make your argument. and, if you look at my comments, I am putting the eye test to the numbers presented. it's an explanation borne of analysis, which includes observation and the utilization of analytics. as a not so numbersy person, I'm generally up front about how I skew toward the eye test. I can Google one and dones, no question, but if I do that, I'll be cherry-picking data to meet my needs because there's going to be cases that apply to the breakout and bust categories. that's why it is so frustrating to go down these holes with the pessimists: I never see a solid argument borne of analysis. pick the player you think is representative and make that argument as to why they are. or don't, it's reddit, and your level of engagement is completely voluntary. but don't be surprised when someone responds to you with some level of critique.
It’s the Glasses.
I have to 100% agree with you on this one!
Maybe Vladdy just needs glasses…
I've seriously thought that a few times.
Davis has the mentality it takes to be a pro. Vladdy has the skill but not the pro mentality. His name and his talent carry him but until he gets his shit together mentally he’ll just be another frustrating can’t miss prospect who never lived up to the hype.
This has been the narrative for a couple seasons now. I’m curious if there are any other players that profile similar to this or whose expected outcomes are so much better
We may never see what we saw in 2021 again, but the last two years, he has underperformed his batted ball data, and there really isn't a great explanation for it, considering before last year, his expected and actual stats were virtually identical. He is definitely missing mistakes this year, which is contributing to his slow start, but I really can't see a reason to not evantually expect things to even out for him.
What are your thoughts on him consistently having low sweet spot numbers? Even in 2021 he was only in the 50th percentile. It's his biggest outlier stat when compared to his other numbers. Would it really be enough to have him underperform his peripherals this much consistently?
Sweet spot doesn’t mean actually finding the sweet spot of the bat. It’s batted balls in a specific range of launch angles, which as we know launch angle is his Achilles heel
I don't know a lot about the metric. To me, barrels seems significantly more important for a hitter at face value. To me, based on definition, it just seems to favour hitters who hit a lot of fly balls, without taking into account the quality of the contact. I'm not sure I'd consider it a big difference maker. At the same time, it is the largest difference between MVP Guerrero and Guerrero for the last few years, so I'm sure it can't be meaningless for him. Its just weird to me that his launch angle has improved, his barrels are near the top of the league, yet somehow his sweet spot percentage has gone down.
A great barrel rate, solid launch angle, and low sweet spot percentage are a weird combo. Thinking about it, it kind of has to be that Vlad has a lot of launch angle variability, right? So he's averaging 9.6° (which is in sweet spot range, but the low end of it). But he doesn't actually land in the range super often, he's instead both topping AND getting under more pitches than the average player. Because he's doing lots of both, he ends up with a LA in the middle. When he does get in the sweet spot, he's turning those into barrels at a rate like almost nobody else in baseball, so he still has a great barrel rate. The hard hit and EV also mean that when he misses (but doesn't whiff) the ball screams, just in the wrong directions. Maybe there's the paradox on display here of being so good at getting to any ball that you'll cover stuff that nobody else can get to, but that still won't turn into a great hit?
I unironically think the problem is that he’s not his Dad but grew up with the expectation that he could be
Great barrel rate but low sweet spot means he hits it hard but still struggles with launch angle. Barrels are optimal launch and optimal exit velo. Sweet spot just means optimal launch. So basically his bat speed is so good that those sweet spots are also barrels more than the average Joe.
Baseball Savant and their metrics weren't around back then, but I always point to Jose Bautista. He had to bounce around a bit, get passed on despite his obvious talent, and work on the finer points of his swing before he turned into one of the best hitters the Blue Jays franchise has ever seen.
I don't know all the ins and outs of how xBA is calculated, but my guess is that his exit velocity somehow tricks the algorithm into thinking he should be performing better, as though a 110 mph ground ball is substantially better than a 95 mph one. I've seen a few other similar struggling power hitters with the same problem.
One that is actually similar in they dramatically under perform is one time Blue Jays DH Kendrys Morales. Guerrero generates a lot of bad spin on balls and they end up routinely 30-50 feet short of where they are expected to land.
The man is hitting a slice lol
As a (somewhat decent) golfer, a slice is amplified by swinging steep as it causes more spin. If you look at that Joe siddal thread it shows he’s swinging steep.
Yandy Diaz until last season when he broke out. Has been a baseball savant legend for years
All I care about his avg on fastballs. That's the big difference maker for him, he's gotta get back to hammering those
Very true, I should have added that to this post, but his xBA on fastballs this season is attrocious. I think it is a timing issue. Many at bats he seems to be sitting on fastballs early, puts a good swing on them, but is just a tick behind.
Yup. Not a hitting expert, but the ones on the broadcast keep saying he's late on them. In 2021, what made him exceptional was he was the best fastball hitter in the game. If he can get back to even part of that, he'll be ok.
It’s the belt high and in pitch that he used to easily get his hands to that he’s just not hitting right now. Remember the home run he hit off Cole at the start of 2021, where the pitch was like 6 inches inside, and he managed to pull his hands inside to absolutely launch it? That’s what made him a special hitter, and what I think he will get back to. There are very few hitters in baseball that have his combination of power and barrel to ball skills. He has a lot of moving parts in his load though, so it’s not hard to see where timing issues may arise from.
At a certain point, if he’s just continually underperforming his expected results, that’s just who he is, an outlier. However, for me with Vlad it’s always been two things, doing damage on mistakes and not chasing. He does one, he’s an all star. He does both, he’s an MVP. As far as damage on mistakes goes, I think it’s pretty obvious his timing is just off, regardless of what pitch it is. He’s just consistently late. Chase wise, not all chases are created equal. He might not be chasing a bunch overall, but there’s still been way too many swings on pitches that aren’t close. When you chase a couple inches out of the zone, you can still foul that off (or even take it deep if your as good as Vladdy can be), but if you chase a foot out of the zone, there aren’t many good outcomes. Admittedly that’s just my attempt to square the data with the eye test, so maybe I’m completely wrong. I’d also say he does look like he’s coming around. Fewer bad chases and at least turning those mistakes into hits more often.
>At a certain point, if he’s just continually underperforming his expected results, that’s just who he is, an outlier. I don't disagree with this statement on the whole, but I'd argue that right now, the outlier IS him underperforming his expected stats. In 2019, his WOBA was 4 points lower than his xWOBA. In 2020 they were identical. In 2021, his WOBA was 2 points below his xWOBA. In 2022, they were identical. It is just in the last season and one month that he has underperformed his xWOBA by roughly 40 points. It may be the start of a bad trend, but I would lean more on the outlier side for now. In terms of the chase rate, that has never concerned me with him. Even in his best season, there were still plenty of at bats where he would wail away at sliders a foot out of the zone. It is a weakness for him, but I think it just comes down to how he keyholes pitches. He may miss that pitch badly, but at his best he is missing that pitch because he is all over the fastball early in counts.
Yeah honestly surprised his rookie year was in line with his expected numbers, would have expected something more similar to this year. Would agree there’s a decent possibility the numbers come back around, but it’s a large enough sample size to consider other explanations, even if it’s just some context the data isn’t accounting for. I don’t remember him chasing as badly as he is now back in 21’, but to be fair, you aren’t going to be chasing as many bad 2 strike sliders if you hit the ball 400 ft before you get to two strikes, so his issues are definitely intertwined. Human nature tends to gloss over the bad when you had the type of year he had also.
How to interpret his Sweet Spot % ranking near the bottom of the league?
To be honest, I don’t fully understand sweet spot percentage, or how it can vary so greatly from barrel percentage, so it’s tough for me to say how significant it is that Guerrero ranks so low in it. For most of his career, he ranks very poorly in this category, but it was up to 50th percentile in 2021, so to me, it inarguably means something.
sweet spot% is fundamentally about launch angle. he ranks so low because his average launch angle isn't good, especially when filtered by high exit velo. barrel%, by contrast, is a measure that looks at xBA and xSLG, as far as I understand it. it's, again, missing mistakes and making hard contact on fairly good pitchers' pitches. he's getting too much loft or not enough (and not pulling the ball effectively when he does put hard contact in the air).
I guess what I'm getting at is that per savant, a barrel is "A batted ball with the perfect combination of exit velocity and launch angle", while sweet spot is "A batted-ball event with a launch angle between eight and 32 degrees.". I can't really wrap my head around how a player can have such a low sweetspot percentage with such a high barrel percentage.
As EV goes up so does the barrel range, so basically Vladdy hits the ball so hard that most of the balls hit within the sweet spot are also barrels. The definition of a barrel is a launch angle and EV combination that leads to .500 xBA and 1.500 xSLG, this includes towering flyballs to CF, which normally are long gone due to pulled/oppo HRs Vladdy has 13 barrels on the year and 30 sweet spots. 19 of those sweet spots were over 100 MPH. Other players will hit the ball softer and have more 10 degree launch angles that don't count as barrels. Springer for example has 7 barrels, but because he doesn't hit the ball as hard he has a lot more sweet spot hits that aren't counting as barrels (41)
these explanations are fantastic. the spray angle stuff conforms with what I'm seeing, too. this was the Chapman issue as well, right?
Matt Chapman last year hit a number of barrel fly balls to centre field. For instance, a 100 mph 30 degree batted ball is going to have high xSLG as expected stats don’t consider spray chart (pull, centre, oppo), and pulled fly balls produces the most homers. Though that batted ball to centre field might just be a 380ft fly out. Pair that with low sweet spot and his high percentage of “automatic outs” (28% K rate and 11.3% pop up rate), and you get excellent hard hit stats with an okay triple slash.
Copying my comment but elsewhere but its just an LA problem, he has power all the time but too often its into the dirt. Vladdy likely has a tiny amount of batted balls in the sweet spot but with not enough power for a barrel: Most players don't drill the ball into the ground as much as Vladdy. When he manages to not drill it into the ground, he is hitting it hard quite often so he ends up with lots of barrels but overall few balls hit in the sweet spot launch angle area overall. For an example look at Schneider vs Vladdy. similar barrel rates (Schneider is actually way higher), but Schneider has 50% flyball rate with an overall LA of 23 degrees and Vladdy has 32% flyball rate and LA of 9.6 degrees. He's just smacking it into the ground too often, the why has been befuddling everyone since 2022. Seems something mechnically is off which is messing with his timing
He does still have a launch angle issue, but 2023 and the start of this season are the two highest of his career in this regard.
all that means is balls hit in not the sweet spot were closer to it than otherwise. So maybe less negative angle balls and they were closer to 8 than before. So he can increase average LA while having crap sweet spot %
it's the high EV filter that accounts for the difference, as far as I understand. I understand it enough for my needs, and it isn't something I would generally lean on, so it might be best to learn the difference from other users.
"I can't really wrap my head around how a player can have such a low sweetspot percentage with such a high barrel percentage." This. I'm having the same confusion. Hence my question above.
Most players don't drill the ball into the ground as much as Vladdy. When he manages to not drill it into the ground, he is hitting it hard quite often so he ends up with lots of barrels but overall few balls hit in the sweet spot launch angle area overall. For an example look at Schneider vs Vladdy. similar barrel rates (Schneider is actually way higher), but Schneider has 50% flyball rate with an overall LA of 23 degrees and Vladdy has 32% flyball rate and LA of 9.6 degrees. He's just smacking it into the ground too often, the why has been befuddling everyone since 2022. Seems something mechnically is off which is messing with his timing
he hits the ball hard even if he doesn't hit it well, which is really hard to do
What's the difference between barrel % and sweet spot %? Sweet spot I'm guessing is narrower? 13th percentile is atrocious.
Sweet spot is just launch angle between 8 to 32 degrees. Barrel is a ball hit at least 98 mph EV between 26-30 launch angle with that range expanding as EV increases. So a ball hit 105 mph would be barrel if launch angle is between 19-37. Keep in mind even during his 2021 season Vladdy’s sweet spot was only 50%. Players who put a lot of ball in play will usually have lower sweet spot %.
Thanks for the explanation. I'm sure they both have their purpose, but barrel seems to be more important given the combination with exit velo.
I have a tough time wrapping my head around it as well. From my reading of their definitions, ss% is just hitting a ball at a good launch angle (8 to 32 degrees) but doesn't care how hard you hit it. A barrel is just defined as the perfect combination of exit velo and launch angle. To me, barrels seems like a much more predictive stat at face value, yet sweet spot percentage is probably the biggest difference between Guerrero now and Guerrero in 2021.
But don't worry I'm SURE he's about to have a breakout any day now.....
Tbf he went 2/4 with a grand slam on Sunday and genuinely looked like he read the pitcher perfectly in that AB. Not a breakout but if he goes on a tear for the next week or two that’ll be the game people look back at Too bad they went directly into an off day so that momentum’s probably died off
He's also on an 8 game hit streak. If our leadoff hitter actually got on base one in a while, chances are that Vladdy has a few more RBI and more people would realize he's actually been heating up a bit.
One day is a small sample size
.344 avg over his last 8 games
Still a small sample size, but let's hope it bodes well.
> Not a breakout but if he goes on a tear for the next week or two that’ll be the game people look back at No it isn't, like I said it needs to translate into a week or two of good ABs to be meaningful
I still think he will. But I'm increasingly skeptical it will happen with the Jays...
Hmm looks like the sweet spot might be the problem here.
More of a sour spot these days, sadly
[удалено]
I’m not sure I’ve seen people bring up sweet spot, as usual. His launch angle is actually the highest it’s ever been the last two seasons
What's the difference between sweet spot and barrel?
Honestly the biggest surprise here is that his arm velocity is only 40th percentile. He doesn't get to show it off much playing 1st, but damn I always thought he had a cannon.
This is why I can't get on board with the "DUMP VLADDY, HE'S NOT EVER GONNA BE HIS 2021 SELF AGAIN" crowd. They love to mock him not being Barry Bonds yet and love even more to mock the notion of underlying metrics and advanced stats because they're fully invested in results-only reactions (which, to be honest, is fair, because as fans, we should care most about results, wins, and success), but losing out on all this potential to another team would be heartbreaking. I have no idea why it hasn't been translating better these last few years. It's clearly that he has otherworldly talent and can hit the absolute shit out of the ball. It's clear he has the ability to not swing at nonsense (which is backed up by his 71st percentile chase rate), but he gets defined by angry fans as someone who only strikes out on low-and-outside pitches. If he can get more aggressive on first pitches and punish mistakes, a lot can turn around.
The other side of it is he's going to be a free agent after next season. Are we really going to re-sign him after many years of mediocrity? Unfortunately, he might have to leave the Jays to reach his potential. Whatever we're doing isn't working so far.
I don't think I would call it mediocrity. People think of it as mediocrity because expectations that were set after 2021. He's shown enough the past two seasons that he is absolutely worth a long-term deal. He's got this year to start showing it.
I'm happy you aren't running the team. Vlad wouldn't be anything if his dad wasn't a Hall of Famer.
K.
Bo and Vlad mash when they're allowed to swing away. Whoever has been teaching them to have an eye might be a sound fundamentalist, but there are certain players who excel outside of fundamentals. The swing at the first pitch brothers need to swing at the first pitches.
Eh. Vlad has underperformed for years. This is just what he is unless he proves different. Probably time to trade him. Sign Bo, hes been consistent. As soon as the ink dries move him to second.
It's his poor sweet spot % that is holding him back. Age old issue of vlad and launch angle
His launch angle is at his second highest mark, last year being the highest. I don’t agree that launch angle is the problem
Average launch angle means nothing if you hit a bunch of ground balls and pop ups. Look at the definition of sweet spot percentage, that's where you want your LA to be
He wouldn’t have such a high barrel rate if this was the case.
His sweet spot is 13th percentile. That means he is in the 13th percentile of hitting the ball between launch angles if 8 and 32 degrees. That's bad
Barrels take launch angle into account. He has never had a high sweet spot percentage.
Seems like he has completely lost the ability to get the ball in air to dead left field. The GS was nice and maybe he is breaking out of it, but it seems like his hard contact is on the ground or in the air to center. When the cement mixer slider came down in 2015, there were 3-4 guys on that team where you knew it was going to be in the left field bleachers before it reached home plate. Vladdy's timing just doesn't seem to be consistent. He's just as likely to foul pop those pitches as he is to do some damage.
Any chance he can learn to hustle to first out of the box?
Sweet spot % is such an important stat because it’s the difference between the output of Vlad and the output of Davis when the other metrics are all really good. I have no idea if it’s predictive or not but it is certainly a skill and I think Savant needs to factor it into the expected stats a lot more.
It has less to do with sweet spot percentage and more to do with spray angle, which expected stats do not use. Spray angle is left out of the calculation due to the fact that when included it becomes less predictive for the average player. However, without spray angle being included some players will get mismatched. On one hand you have Vladdy who is hitting a lot of deep CF flyballs, which will have a high xBA and xwOBA due to the lack of spray (most pulled balls hit that hard are HRs). On the other hand you have Schneider who is a dead pull hitter doesn't have that boost. **Since 2023, Vladdy has hit 20 fly-balls to CF with an EV of 100 MPH or higher.** He had 16 flyouts, 3 home runs and 1 double. The actual stats were (.200 BA, .700 SLG, .368 wOBA) but the expected stats were (.644 xBA, 2.392 xSLG, 1.220 xwOBA **In 2021, he had 21 fly-balls to CF with an EV of 100 MPH or higher.** He had 9 flyouts, 11 home runs and 1 double. The actual stats were (.571 BA, 2.190 SLG, 1.110 wOBA) but the expected stats were (.763 xBA, 2.843 xSLG, 1.453 xwOBA) So he's lost a little bit of power/distance (as you can see the expected stats dropped a bit) which is turning those HR to CF to flyouts, but because spray isn't being included those extra 10 feet of distance he lost isn't being punished as hard as it should be. Sweet Spot is more a measure of how effective you are at harnessing your power into good contact, high EV and low SS, you're hitting a ton of hard groundballs or towering flyballs
>the current team hitting philosophy to only swing at pitches they can do damage on. Sounds pretty brain-dead to me. Why have a lineup of balanced hitters when you can be picky and have the league worst risp?
>Why have a lineup of balanced hitters when you can be picky and have the league worst risp? The goal is obviously not to have poor numbers with RISP. Being selective is actually generally a way to improve with RISP, since you want to swing at pitches you can get to the outfield.
runners at second can score on singles not being able to hit singles is a problem
You don’t think you can hit singles by only swinging at good pitches to hit?
Tell me what team has a philosophy that okays swinging at bad pitches? The difference is some have hitters who can hit bad pitches. If our hitters can't even hit the meatballs, what's the point?
You know what, you’re right. You know best.
uh, you started this, big guy. >The goal is obviously I never even directed my comment at you, lol. >Being selective is actually generally a way to improve with RISP If you're failing to achieve the goal year after year with the same approach, I generally believe it's failing.
Ok, good for you. >If you're failing to achieve the goal year after year with the same approach, I generally believe it's failing. This approach was a point of emphasis for the current season, not the last few years.
>You know what, you’re right. You know best.
You clearly do. Go tell the Jays coaches what they're doing wrong, you absolute asset.
I just want to see him run hard out of the box every time. He also needs to stop adding moves to his home run trot. There has to be like 8 moves now.
He has ran out all his ground outs from what I've seen, but I haven't caught every game. I can't say I see his problems relating to a lack of effort this year.
He dogged on one play in the Nats series, he ended up being safe because the error was really bad, but had he gotten out he could have killed an early rally by not [hustling](https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/cTgzM2xfWGw0TUFRPT1fQWdsUVhWUU5VZ1VBV1FBR1h3QUFCMWNGQUZsUUFsY0FBQVlDQ1FvRlZ3UUVVd0pX.mp4) Overall that's the only effort point I've seen all year
If I hit a homer I would be doing a fucking cartwheel between 1st and 2nd. Who cares what he does on his home run trots let people enjoy their accomplishments