The way I look at it, 14 ping pong balls vs. 9 in a pool of 100 is a pretty slight difference. If we can lose just enough, can't be too mad that we don't have one of the worst records in the league and still have a really solid chance at Vic or Scoot.
Thanks for being a dick. I meant that it’s so statistically improbable as to be an irrelevant consideration. You can fantasize about it, but there’s a relatively equal chance we win the WCF this year.
Well I would place the chances of those two things happening at about 4% and 0.01%. I don't expect either of them to happen, but I don't think it is idiotic to mention as a "best case" possibility, especially since we play them tomorrow and they have playing decent basketball for awhile.
You're acting like I was talking about catching the Hornets.
I wasn’t being critical of you in my initial post. I was agreeing that some on this sub are exaggerating the potential opportunity and that even getting to 5 is extremely unlikely. You were obviously right to call out that 14% was not an option. You think there is a 4% chance at the 5th spot and I think it’s under 1%, and that 3% is not worth arguing.
4 games of 16 and the Magic aren’t trying to win. Its very unlikely even if we lost all 16, which we won’t. We play Orl, Cha, SA, and OKC who may all be trying to lose against us.
It’s still in the realm of possibility and I’d even say absolutely a good chance rather than absolutely 0 chance. The worry is Pacers, not Magic imo. Magic have been a better team than the Jazz
You literally couldn't write a better script for the season.. start off hot, find Lauri Bird and gobert Jr, get Lauri in the all-star game and then tank to a great draft pick. Chef's kiss👌
It was a fun ride and showed where our ragtag team could go. It just wasn’t meant to be and I know it wasn’t for the best. All aboard the tank I guess.
It raises our chance of top four significantly and this draft is looking good at the top. Still with the new odds and system the nba uses, it feels less valuable to tank super hard.
Magic have some incredible young talent. It's the type of team I could see putting it together at the end.
At the same time, all if these teams have a similar goal and they'll stay where they're at most likely.
I'm obviously biased, but I think the lottery odds should be the same between east and west teams. -- meaning the 15th best team in the west and east have the same odds, and then 14th best team in both conferences have the same odds.
We don't see the playoffs differently based on your conference, we shouldn't change the lottery odds so the 3rd worst team in the west is behind 5-6 teams in the east.
4 of the Pacers next 6 include 1x Houston, 2x Detroit and 1x Charlotte as well,
\* As side note is anyone else more enamoured with Brandon Miller (Supplying a gun to a teammate that was then used in a homicide aside) than Scoot Henderson
Jazz won’t be the Wizards regardless. We have more assets, less bad contracts, and are younger. It takes multiple terrible decisions to get to the Wizards level.
True, hopefully the rebuild gonna be quick, and it should he quick because you still got a lot of quality players. But the West was historically weak this year and if they kept Beasley and Vanderbilt i could legit see them upsetting Grizzlies or Kings. But ultimately they made the right decision, i just dont understand why they traded 2 high value young players for... a pick in 2027. Like fr, wouldnt it make more sense to trade Clarkson instead of Beasley, he is gonna be gone soon anyways
Vando can’t play with Kessler and will need paying about the time we’re competitive. More valuable to other teams than to us sadly.
Beasley and Clarkson are similar players, but Clarkson is a fav/org favourite. Neither are in the long term plans, so might as well keep the more well-liked guy.
I think most people are ok with trading them for a 1st at this point, it’s the protections that make it questionable.
I’d settle for 6th, Top four: 37.2% number one: 9.0% Currently 8th, Top four: 26.3% number one: 6.0%
Honestly 9% for Vic is incredible considering the season we've had
If we’re gonna do this, I say let’s do it right Rest Lauri, Sexton and Clarkson This tank is about to nosedive
The way I look at it, 14 ping pong balls vs. 9 in a pool of 100 is a pretty slight difference. If we can lose just enough, can't be too mad that we don't have one of the worst records in the league and still have a really solid chance at Vic or Scoot.
I dunno about a slight difference. Going from 9 balls to 14 balls is an over 50% increase.
Yeah, you’re right. Math was the hardest 3 years of my life 😅
We can't mathematically get to 14%. Best case scenario, pulling out all the stops could take us to 10.5% at 5th.
I’m agreeing with you, but there is absolutely 0 chance at 5th worst. It’s not possible
I'm not sure you know what absolutely 0 means.
Thanks for being a dick. I meant that it’s so statistically improbable as to be an irrelevant consideration. You can fantasize about it, but there’s a relatively equal chance we win the WCF this year.
Well I would place the chances of those two things happening at about 4% and 0.01%. I don't expect either of them to happen, but I don't think it is idiotic to mention as a "best case" possibility, especially since we play them tomorrow and they have playing decent basketball for awhile. You're acting like I was talking about catching the Hornets.
I wasn’t being critical of you in my initial post. I was agreeing that some on this sub are exaggerating the potential opportunity and that even getting to 5 is extremely unlikely. You were obviously right to call out that 14% was not an option. You think there is a 4% chance at the 5th spot and I think it’s under 1%, and that 3% is not worth arguing.
Yes it is? The jazz are only 4 games back and have one of the hardest remaining schedules
4 games of 16 and the Magic aren’t trying to win. Its very unlikely even if we lost all 16, which we won’t. We play Orl, Cha, SA, and OKC who may all be trying to lose against us.
It’s still in the realm of possibility and I’d even say absolutely a good chance rather than absolutely 0 chance. The worry is Pacers, not Magic imo. Magic have been a better team than the Jazz
The perfect year
You literally couldn't write a better script for the season.. start off hot, find Lauri Bird and gobert Jr, get Lauri in the all-star game and then tank to a great draft pick. Chef's kiss👌
If the Wolves implode, it would be the perfect year.
It was a fun ride and showed where our ragtag team could go. It just wasn’t meant to be and I know it wasn’t for the best. All aboard the tank I guess.
We could lose every game the rest of the season and still finish above the Spurs, Rockets, and Pistons.
And still end up with a first round pick who is only decent. People who want to tank have no idea how probabilities work…
It raises our chance of top four significantly and this draft is looking good at the top. Still with the new odds and system the nba uses, it feels less valuable to tank super hard.
I'm glad we were competitive most of the year, but it's time to tank. It's only about a month of tanking, not such a hard pill to swallow.
Pile on a few more L's. It'll hurt but be worth it for the rebuild
If the Lakers beat the Grizzlies, it will be the perfect day for wins/losses.
Magic lost, so not quite perfect. But still a really good night.
Eh realistically I don't think we are catching the Magic. We are only 4 games ahead but they are pretty bad.
If we lose against them next game it would help a lot. But they are super ass
Magic have some incredible young talent. It's the type of team I could see putting it together at the end. At the same time, all if these teams have a similar goal and they'll stay where they're at most likely.
They’ve actually been pretty decent lately, I think I read they’re actually a winning team after they started 5-20
The lakers got you brother! Jazz x Lakers alliance. Lakers get the playoff push, Jazz gets wemby
I'm obviously biased, but I think the lottery odds should be the same between east and west teams. -- meaning the 15th best team in the west and east have the same odds, and then 14th best team in both conferences have the same odds. We don't see the playoffs differently based on your conference, we shouldn't change the lottery odds so the 3rd worst team in the west is behind 5-6 teams in the east.
DERAIL THE TRAIN
My first roll tonight was Jazz jumping to get the 2nd pick.
second roll, 1st pick. the dream is alive!
It took me 35 times to get the 2 and in the 50 times we only got top 4 three other times. Don’t send me to the lottery.
Next game @ Orlando - must lose. That 5 spot would be incredible.
4 of the Pacers next 6 include 1x Houston, 2x Detroit and 1x Charlotte as well, \* As side note is anyone else more enamoured with Brandon Miller (Supplying a gun to a teammate that was then used in a homicide aside) than Scoot Henderson
Cam Whitmore is in reach
"Never tell me the odds!" - Some space pirate or something
Too late to tank unless you want to become Wizards of the East
Jazz won’t be the Wizards regardless. We have more assets, less bad contracts, and are younger. It takes multiple terrible decisions to get to the Wizards level.
True, hopefully the rebuild gonna be quick, and it should he quick because you still got a lot of quality players. But the West was historically weak this year and if they kept Beasley and Vanderbilt i could legit see them upsetting Grizzlies or Kings. But ultimately they made the right decision, i just dont understand why they traded 2 high value young players for... a pick in 2027. Like fr, wouldnt it make more sense to trade Clarkson instead of Beasley, he is gonna be gone soon anyways
Vando can’t play with Kessler and will need paying about the time we’re competitive. More valuable to other teams than to us sadly. Beasley and Clarkson are similar players, but Clarkson is a fav/org favourite. Neither are in the long term plans, so might as well keep the more well-liked guy. I think most people are ok with trading them for a 1st at this point, it’s the protections that make it questionable.
I hate this
Playing the long game. It's the way a FO should run a team and we will be better in the long run.
I do too, but I'm resigned to accept the strategy.
Give me that tank baby!!!!
TANK NOTE TANK NOTE TANK NOTE