In what world do people think the US is going to have a civil war? If you think the keyboard warriors are going to pick up guns and go actually kill each other you’re severely underestimating peoples resolve.
The people who would actually fight are the extreme ends of the political spectrum. The vast majority of voters are all over the middle of it, and they aren’t giving up their comfortable lives for the ideologies of extremists.
The first civil war only had 2% of the population involved. Now I've known quite a few Americans in my life due to living there for a time, many of them ex military, absolutely disillusioned with the government and are absolutely waiting for it.
If less than 7 million people say "we've had enough, it's time" it will get very ugly very quickly, it won't be two sides lining up on on opposing sides, it will be attacks on infrastructure for cities, destruction of rail lines and trucking lines, and other gorilla style stuff. It's a very probable situation with everything that's going on down there. This is a country with tons of right-wing militias that are just spoiling for a fight.
It’s also a country with literally the best intelligence agencies and army. If militants ever became an actual threat they would be dealt with a very, very heavy hand.
Sure, but I think you'd find that even if the states broke the law and use the Army on their own soil (national guard excluded of course), the majority of the army would not be on the governments side, obviously there would be some but not in the numbers I think you'd imagine. You simply have to look where the biggest recruitment come from, the majority of it comes from the South and the Heartlands, and they're not going to kill their fellow Americans to protect the democrate government, and will either ignore any commands or actively join the belligerents.
They most certainly would if the militant group was attacking American soil. Plus I really struggle to believe higher ups and/or officers would betray their country. Maybe the young soldiers who are vulnerable to extremist ideology, but the US army isn’t powerful because of the amount of soldiers it has, but because of the tech and intelligence. Militant groups are just not going to get that.
I think you're probably right about the officers but I'd still expect some to stray, but I did some digging,
There is roughly one million active service men and woman in the US Military
34% identify as Republicans
https://news.gallup.com/poll/118684/military-veterans-ages-tend-republican.aspx
So 340,000 Republicans, let's just assume for ease we'll apply the 2% stat and it's 6800 active duty members joining in.
54 % of veterans voted for trump, of which there is est 18 million alive, let's assume half are of non fighting age so 9 million, so the 2% is 180,000
As for militias, well obviously there's no hard fast numbers, I've seen it between 15,000 and 20,000 people.
So at a rough estimate of 268,000 trained people, not including involved civilians, who are not fighting organized battles but guerrilla warfare can cause absolute havoc, the us had all the tech and intelligence in the world and they couldn't defeat Afghanistan because they were fighting the same kind of enemy. Israel has had a very tough time in Palestine for the same reason, quick hit and blend back into the population. None of that takes into account state actors (Russia, China, Iran and the like) that have been actively sowing the discontent, do they arm the rebels? Actively join the fighting? It's a huge variable that can absolutely make a difference.
There has already been a lot of attacks on power transformers, it takes a couple bullets in the middle of the night and whole areas are disabled, protests on both sides are already experienced shootings and other escalating violence where the person responsible just melts away. You can't have an f22 just bomb people and places you think may have rebels, because 98% of them will be innocent people, and regardless what team the pilots on I can't imagine they'd be okay bombing their countrymen that have nothing to do with it, the states are also huge and military responses will be spread out and arrive slowly.
Do I think the government will come out on top? Probably, but I wouldn't guarantee it.
Again, this is all hypothetical it's just one way I see it playing out.
For sure, I think they could get the manpower to cause a lot of shit, however that would also require the logistical and organizational equivalent of a countries army, which would be insanely hard to do in the backyard of the CIA and FBI.
Definitely an interesting hypothetical though.
This is an accurate take. It's the arguably mentally ill on either extremes that would initiate war. That said, neither sides would have the capacity to overthrow the US army. And the far-right certainly owns a lot more weaponry and bullet proof vests to take on the far-left's protesting hand glue and posters.
At most there may be some of those extremists who camp out in the mountains that the feds went after. Actual fighting between states or “sides” would never happen because it would require political leadership. No politician would touch that with a 100 foot pole as that would be a speed run for getting voted out of power.
It’s similar to Canada, the moderates hold the real power, politicians know this.
Sure, crucify them over it, just do it to the liberals as well. That said, the defense environment in the 00s and early 10s was dramatically different, and even the US was lowering spending levels because Obama had basically declared that Russia was not a threat, and didn’t want as much money tied up in military spending after Bush wasted trillions in Iraq, so Canada was largely just following that trend, but I agree. We should meet our obligations then and now.
To be fair to everyone involved... the general Canadian population doesn't really support spending more for military and any expensive military purchase always ends up in a ton of controversy. Both parties historically don't want the popularity hit that would come with a major funding boost for the military. We just don't have the same culture as the US which LOVES to see more funding for its military
Short of Swiss style mandatory service I don't think any military Canada could conceivably field would be sufficient deterrent to a motivated United States. Like our military is in rough shape right now, but I don't think we should be using "capable of repelling a US invasion" as a measure of being sufficiently prepared. It just isn't realistic.
Which is a shame. Canada's former culture of hunting and bush craft is what made us a tour de force in the previous world wars. With every man, most women and a fair number of children being expert marksmen, the only combat training required was basically military procedures. We used to be hard AF.
Yes, former. How many millennials and gen-z have even handled a real firearm, never mind gone into the bush to go hunting? Sure, those who grew up rural might have, but the vast majority of people live in urban or suburban settings where "gun culture" is frowned upon. Their idea of "bushcraft" is driving an SUV to a campsite and pitching a tent for the weekend.
in this hypothetical situation where it did, Europe would not side against it. i dont understand why people cant grasp the concept of "what if" while keeping everything else realistic
the interior which has little to no roads or other infrastructure? Russia has defence in depth because it's heavily populated from its border to the Urals. 90% of Canada lives within, what, 100 kilometers of the US? We might look like Russia but we're more like Chile.
I'm pretty sure a particularly committed US civilian militia could overthrow Canada with military force at this point.
Damn, if the Freedom Convoy was about 50% angrier and had a shipping container of SKS's they probably could have done the same.
>Yeah, talk about foreign influence and treason... but no mention of that in the report!
Wtf even is this comment?
No, people flying flags are not the same as foreign governments interfering in elections and paying off MPs to vote certain ways.
Edit: they blocked me, so I can't see their unhinged response.
>No, people flying flags are not the same as foreign governments interfering in elections and paying off MPs to vote certain ways.
American influence is much more insidious; it is exerted through the export of their culture, media, and non-governmental organizations, allowing the United States government plausible deniability. There have also been many cases where the United States has directly pressured Canada to act to our detriment, but of course, that's all fine and dandy since they're our ally
Yeah man, totally. I've got a neighbour with a Union Jack on their porch, I'm going to give them shit for facilitating the insidious import of British influence lol
*”The next president is sure to be loathed by much of the country, and likely seen as illegitimate by at least a large minority.”*
So, chaos next door this November is inevitable. The level of it is TBD. Merry Christmas!
Some riots with potential for fatalities? Sure. Full blown civil war? Nah, neither side is organized for that.
I do think we will see those riots if Trump dies in the next five years, whether or not he takes the office. Possibly, also if Biden dies, but only if he stays in office.
Fucking old fucks.
"It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future" - Yogi Berra
It is wise to have a fire escape plan, a spare tire, insurance or a raincoat. Being prepared is better than not.
Whither the USA? IDK. The game is tied with one period to go and the crowd is going nuts. Chants and rants.
To hope for the best and plan for the worst is prudent, though the worst is unlikely.
Not sure why there are so many downvotes to this article, a descent into violence, instability and effectively a “civil war-like” status in the US or regionally within the US is a real concern and possibility, according to experts who study civil wars like Prof Barbara Walter:
https://www.pbs.org/wnet/amanpour-and-company/video/barbara-f-walter-how-civil-wars-start-zlrp4i/
Canada had best be prepared for the very real possibility, and right now Canadian policymakers and society are absolutely *not* prepared - meaning we are sleepwalking to disaster.
It is insanity to think that ignoring this increasingly likely possibility will help anyone, or that Canada wouldn’t be deeply effected by a war south of the border. Are we even able to secure our own borders, should millions of American refugees attempt to cross? Do we have the infrastructure in place to be more independent and self-sufficient, as a nation and as communities, should supply lines be disrupted? Are we prepared to deal with reactionary domestic movements who will inevitably attempt to import the US’ cultural divisions and battles into Canada (because they are too “woke” or white supremacist, or watch too much American media, or just want to see Canada burn)?
No no and no.
Better stockpile some food and water yourself, because Canadian authorities will be caught with their pants down if this unfortunate situation ever does become a reality.
Ah yes, Justin *'Deeds Not Words'* Trudeau. Our protector, *Keeping Canadians Safe*. Gravitas personified.
At least when Rome burned, Nero made music. JT would be taking selfies and throwing money onto the fire.
Pretty sure this is something Canada should have always been ready for. The potential of a second American civil war has always been there since the losers of the first one still haven't quite gotten over it yet.
Given how we invited corruption, money laundering and foreign influence it’s more likely we’ll just pick a state to side with.
I hear Montana is a nice place.
No-one significant is threatening violence in Canada. We have our own problems but society here is nowhere near as divided (along intractable lines, like race) as the USA is. Only a few small fringe groups like Diagolon and La Meute threaten violence in Canada and they are truly minuscule, without the support of 99% of the population.
So who exactly in Canada is threatening violence and war?
In the U.S., there's too many to count and remember or keep straight.
Help me out. These are the kinds of things I like to know.
These days it's not on social media. It's said quite openly in public, at rallies and speeches.
Just gotta pay attention to the news and what people actually say.
Randos on the internet don't concern me. Govenors, presidential candidates, USSC judges, legislators and the like, those types do.
In 2021 like a thousand idiots ransacked the US Capitol building because Facebook told them to and the American's are still undecided if that was a bad thing or not.
Would like to see that report. Maga hats are on the decline and their cult leader is showing signs of health decline. However; there is nothing wrong with preparation for any situation that could arise.
It was the report about possible future events that could affect Canada, it includes everything from AI, WW3, environmental impacts and everything else.
The U.S. civil war isn't even listed in the top ten things most likely to happen.
Edit: https://horizons.service.canada.ca/en/2024/disruptions/
I think the current Maga hats are the Kool aid type and would not accept anyone else. Yes there is a possibility a new grift will arise but it would not happen overnight. Would like too see that report.
The US election is going to be a gong show. It's quite possible the boogaloo will start right then and there if it's too close to call and the Trump side actually kills some people this time around.
In what world do people think the US is going to have a civil war? If you think the keyboard warriors are going to pick up guns and go actually kill each other you’re severely underestimating peoples resolve. The people who would actually fight are the extreme ends of the political spectrum. The vast majority of voters are all over the middle of it, and they aren’t giving up their comfortable lives for the ideologies of extremists.
The first civil war only had 2% of the population involved. Now I've known quite a few Americans in my life due to living there for a time, many of them ex military, absolutely disillusioned with the government and are absolutely waiting for it. If less than 7 million people say "we've had enough, it's time" it will get very ugly very quickly, it won't be two sides lining up on on opposing sides, it will be attacks on infrastructure for cities, destruction of rail lines and trucking lines, and other gorilla style stuff. It's a very probable situation with everything that's going on down there. This is a country with tons of right-wing militias that are just spoiling for a fight.
It’s also a country with literally the best intelligence agencies and army. If militants ever became an actual threat they would be dealt with a very, very heavy hand.
Sure, but I think you'd find that even if the states broke the law and use the Army on their own soil (national guard excluded of course), the majority of the army would not be on the governments side, obviously there would be some but not in the numbers I think you'd imagine. You simply have to look where the biggest recruitment come from, the majority of it comes from the South and the Heartlands, and they're not going to kill their fellow Americans to protect the democrate government, and will either ignore any commands or actively join the belligerents.
They most certainly would if the militant group was attacking American soil. Plus I really struggle to believe higher ups and/or officers would betray their country. Maybe the young soldiers who are vulnerable to extremist ideology, but the US army isn’t powerful because of the amount of soldiers it has, but because of the tech and intelligence. Militant groups are just not going to get that.
I think you're probably right about the officers but I'd still expect some to stray, but I did some digging, There is roughly one million active service men and woman in the US Military 34% identify as Republicans https://news.gallup.com/poll/118684/military-veterans-ages-tend-republican.aspx So 340,000 Republicans, let's just assume for ease we'll apply the 2% stat and it's 6800 active duty members joining in. 54 % of veterans voted for trump, of which there is est 18 million alive, let's assume half are of non fighting age so 9 million, so the 2% is 180,000 As for militias, well obviously there's no hard fast numbers, I've seen it between 15,000 and 20,000 people. So at a rough estimate of 268,000 trained people, not including involved civilians, who are not fighting organized battles but guerrilla warfare can cause absolute havoc, the us had all the tech and intelligence in the world and they couldn't defeat Afghanistan because they were fighting the same kind of enemy. Israel has had a very tough time in Palestine for the same reason, quick hit and blend back into the population. None of that takes into account state actors (Russia, China, Iran and the like) that have been actively sowing the discontent, do they arm the rebels? Actively join the fighting? It's a huge variable that can absolutely make a difference. There has already been a lot of attacks on power transformers, it takes a couple bullets in the middle of the night and whole areas are disabled, protests on both sides are already experienced shootings and other escalating violence where the person responsible just melts away. You can't have an f22 just bomb people and places you think may have rebels, because 98% of them will be innocent people, and regardless what team the pilots on I can't imagine they'd be okay bombing their countrymen that have nothing to do with it, the states are also huge and military responses will be spread out and arrive slowly. Do I think the government will come out on top? Probably, but I wouldn't guarantee it. Again, this is all hypothetical it's just one way I see it playing out.
For sure, I think they could get the manpower to cause a lot of shit, however that would also require the logistical and organizational equivalent of a countries army, which would be insanely hard to do in the backyard of the CIA and FBI. Definitely an interesting hypothetical though.
Guerrilla, unless you think apes will be fighting lol
I didn't, but I do now.
This is an accurate take. It's the arguably mentally ill on either extremes that would initiate war. That said, neither sides would have the capacity to overthrow the US army. And the far-right certainly owns a lot more weaponry and bullet proof vests to take on the far-left's protesting hand glue and posters.
At most there may be some of those extremists who camp out in the mountains that the feds went after. Actual fighting between states or “sides” would never happen because it would require political leadership. No politician would touch that with a 100 foot pole as that would be a speed run for getting voted out of power. It’s similar to Canada, the moderates hold the real power, politicians know this.
Yes, if there’s anything Justin Trudeau has excelled at as PM it has been the revitalization and growth of our Canadian armed forces…
Second only to listening to and acting on reports from his own government.
Thanks, I needed that laugh.
Ya we should go back to the CPC who cut funding to 1% of GDP last time they held power...so much better lol...
Sure, crucify them over it, just do it to the liberals as well. That said, the defense environment in the 00s and early 10s was dramatically different, and even the US was lowering spending levels because Obama had basically declared that Russia was not a threat, and didn’t want as much money tied up in military spending after Bush wasted trillions in Iraq, so Canada was largely just following that trend, but I agree. We should meet our obligations then and now.
To be fair to everyone involved... the general Canadian population doesn't really support spending more for military and any expensive military purchase always ends up in a ton of controversy. Both parties historically don't want the popularity hit that would come with a major funding boost for the military. We just don't have the same culture as the US which LOVES to see more funding for its military
Someone saw Alex Garland’s new movie.
Soon it's going to be $600 for a tank of gas
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Short of Swiss style mandatory service I don't think any military Canada could conceivably field would be sufficient deterrent to a motivated United States. Like our military is in rough shape right now, but I don't think we should be using "capable of repelling a US invasion" as a measure of being sufficiently prepared. It just isn't realistic.
Which is a shame. Canada's former culture of hunting and bush craft is what made us a tour de force in the previous world wars. With every man, most women and a fair number of children being expert marksmen, the only combat training required was basically military procedures. We used to be hard AF.
> Canada's former culture of hunting and bush craft Former?
Yes, former. How many millennials and gen-z have even handled a real firearm, never mind gone into the bush to go hunting? Sure, those who grew up rural might have, but the vast majority of people live in urban or suburban settings where "gun culture" is frowned upon. Their idea of "bushcraft" is driving an SUV to a campsite and pitching a tent for the weekend.
NATO.
like European NATO countries would side against their #1 protector lol
Like the U.S. would invade Canada.
in this hypothetical situation where it did, Europe would not side against it. i dont understand why people cant grasp the concept of "what if" while keeping everything else realistic
Okay
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the interior which has little to no roads or other infrastructure? Russia has defence in depth because it's heavily populated from its border to the Urals. 90% of Canada lives within, what, 100 kilometers of the US? We might look like Russia but we're more like Chile.
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supply lines to edmonton, one city 600 km from the border, run by the most powerful military on earth, are not going to fuck them.
I'm pretty sure a particularly committed US civilian militia could overthrow Canada with military force at this point. Damn, if the Freedom Convoy was about 50% angrier and had a shipping container of SKS's they probably could have done the same.
I’m sure the proud Canadians who fly US and Confederate flags will join in and help too.
Yeah, talk about foreign influence and treason... but no mention of that in the report!
>Yeah, talk about foreign influence and treason... but no mention of that in the report! Wtf even is this comment? No, people flying flags are not the same as foreign governments interfering in elections and paying off MPs to vote certain ways. Edit: they blocked me, so I can't see their unhinged response.
>No, people flying flags are not the same as foreign governments interfering in elections and paying off MPs to vote certain ways. American influence is much more insidious; it is exerted through the export of their culture, media, and non-governmental organizations, allowing the United States government plausible deniability. There have also been many cases where the United States has directly pressured Canada to act to our detriment, but of course, that's all fine and dandy since they're our ally
Why bother replying to a person if you were going to immediately block them?
Not sure what you're talking about?
I'm sure you do. It's a pretty common tactic on here. It's also pretty common to act like you didn't once you called out for it.
Yeah man, totally. I've got a neighbour with a Union Jack on their porch, I'm going to give them shit for facilitating the insidious import of British influence lol
*”The next president is sure to be loathed by much of the country, and likely seen as illegitimate by at least a large minority.”* So, chaos next door this November is inevitable. The level of it is TBD. Merry Christmas!
Some riots with potential for fatalities? Sure. Full blown civil war? Nah, neither side is organized for that. I do think we will see those riots if Trump dies in the next five years, whether or not he takes the office. Possibly, also if Biden dies, but only if he stays in office. Fucking old fucks.
"It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future" - Yogi Berra It is wise to have a fire escape plan, a spare tire, insurance or a raincoat. Being prepared is better than not. Whither the USA? IDK. The game is tied with one period to go and the crowd is going nuts. Chants and rants. To hope for the best and plan for the worst is prudent, though the worst is unlikely.
Not sure why there are so many downvotes to this article, a descent into violence, instability and effectively a “civil war-like” status in the US or regionally within the US is a real concern and possibility, according to experts who study civil wars like Prof Barbara Walter: https://www.pbs.org/wnet/amanpour-and-company/video/barbara-f-walter-how-civil-wars-start-zlrp4i/ Canada had best be prepared for the very real possibility, and right now Canadian policymakers and society are absolutely *not* prepared - meaning we are sleepwalking to disaster. It is insanity to think that ignoring this increasingly likely possibility will help anyone, or that Canada wouldn’t be deeply effected by a war south of the border. Are we even able to secure our own borders, should millions of American refugees attempt to cross? Do we have the infrastructure in place to be more independent and self-sufficient, as a nation and as communities, should supply lines be disrupted? Are we prepared to deal with reactionary domestic movements who will inevitably attempt to import the US’ cultural divisions and battles into Canada (because they are too “woke” or white supremacist, or watch too much American media, or just want to see Canada burn)? No no and no. Better stockpile some food and water yourself, because Canadian authorities will be caught with their pants down if this unfortunate situation ever does become a reality.
china invading Taiwan and causing WW3 is a more realistic concern than this
We have one coming too, unless the corporate greed and government corruption ends very soon. It's going to be a revolution.
Ah yes, Justin *'Deeds Not Words'* Trudeau. Our protector, *Keeping Canadians Safe*. Gravitas personified. At least when Rome burned, Nero made music. JT would be taking selfies and throwing money onto the fire.
Pretty sure this is something Canada should have always been ready for. The potential of a second American civil war has always been there since the losers of the first one still haven't quite gotten over it yet.
It’s really time we close the border and build a wall.
And make the Americans pay for it!
Yeah and make the mexicans pay for it!! Oh wait that was us taxpayers....
Given how we invited corruption, money laundering and foreign influence it’s more likely we’ll just pick a state to side with. I hear Montana is a nice place.
They should be more worried about Canada breaking out in civil war with all our issues - nevermind the US.
No-one significant is threatening violence in Canada. We have our own problems but society here is nowhere near as divided (along intractable lines, like race) as the USA is. Only a few small fringe groups like Diagolon and La Meute threaten violence in Canada and they are truly minuscule, without the support of 99% of the population.
So who exactly in Canada is threatening violence and war? In the U.S., there's too many to count and remember or keep straight. Help me out. These are the kinds of things I like to know.
Stay off social media. I think you are being misled
These days it's not on social media. It's said quite openly in public, at rallies and speeches. Just gotta pay attention to the news and what people actually say. Randos on the internet don't concern me. Govenors, presidential candidates, USSC judges, legislators and the like, those types do.
Well, Canada’s Parliament is illegitimate and some government officials may be traitors, so a U.S. civil war is not a priority in Canada right now.
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Unfortunately it's not out of the question. The first civil war also broke out in the wake of a Presidential election.
In 2021 like a thousand idiots ransacked the US Capitol building because Facebook told them to and the American's are still undecided if that was a bad thing or not.
Would like to see that report. Maga hats are on the decline and their cult leader is showing signs of health decline. However; there is nothing wrong with preparation for any situation that could arise.
It was the report about possible future events that could affect Canada, it includes everything from AI, WW3, environmental impacts and everything else. The U.S. civil war isn't even listed in the top ten things most likely to happen. Edit: https://horizons.service.canada.ca/en/2024/disruptions/
Thanks for this , an interesting read.
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I think the current Maga hats are the Kool aid type and would not accept anyone else. Yes there is a possibility a new grift will arise but it would not happen overnight. Would like too see that report.
Trumpers are a cult not a political party. They will go back to not voting when he dies
Someone watched "Civil War" this past wekeend
The US election is going to be a gong show. It's quite possible the boogaloo will start right then and there if it's too close to call and the Trump side actually kills some people this time around.
Well I know we'll be safe from the MAGA crowd here, they couldn't find Canada on a map even if they wanted to.