I hear more people around me talk openly of voting PPC. For some it's a protest, but for others it's the long game.
The issues people are discussing here will not be solved by any of the major parties. CPC might slow it down, but that is not good enough anymore.
Well, it sure won't if everybody has the same defeatist attitude as you. Thankfully this is not the case. I'm voting PPC for the foreseeable future, and encouraging friends and family to do the same. PPC is the only party with a platform that will help the average Canadian currently.
Ok, so I checked out their website and platform
A People’s Party government will:
* Repeal the *Canada Health Act*
* Modify the Criminal Code to outlaw the use of puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and any form of bodily mutilation on minors with the goal of “transitioning” to another sex. Moreover, any person encouraging minors to “transition” could be held criminally responsible for attempting to cause harm.
* Modify the Bank of Canada’s inflation target, from 2% to 0%. This will cool down inflation in all sectors, including housing.
* Replace the *Firearms Act* and supporting legislation with new legislation that will prioritize effective measures to improve public safety and fight crime in Canada.
* Counter anti-oil and anti-pipeline propaganda from radical environmentalists and foreign foundations.
* Restrict the definition of hate speech in the *Criminal Code* to expression which explicitly advocates the use of force against identifiable groups or persons based on protected criteria such as religion, race, ethnicity, sex, or sexual orientation.
* Repeal any existing legislation or regulation curtailing free speech on the internet and prevent the reinstatement of section 13 of the *Canadian Human Rights Act*.
* Withdraw from the Paris Accord and abandon unrealistic greenhouse gas emission reduction targets.
* Invest in adaptation strategies if problems arise as a result of any natural climate change.
* Fire the Chief Public Health Officer of Canada Theresa Tam and replace her with someone who will work with provincial agencies to implement a rational approach to the pandemic, instead of following the recommendations of the World Health Organization.
They're just a different flavor of CPC. Buuuut, I'll give them props for actually having a platform.
The biggest haters on the PPC mostly come from landlords who enjoy our current housing ponzi scheme. They'll attack the PPC for anything, but the real reason they care is money.
They will exist in some form or another. This is guaranteed.
Canada will not survive under the current main parties. None of them are looking out for the interest of Canadians, and beyond that, are actively *against* our interests.
None of them, and ppc would be no different. We have to entirely change how our government functions in order to fix the busted state we’re in at every level.
Off the top of my head the banning of MP’s owning rental properties or investing in most companies, or at least full transparency. Removal of FPTP. Beyond that i dont know, im not in the political sphere so many aspects of it are unknown to me.
Who would’ve thought that by making us the easiest country in G7 to enter as a low skill migrants will lower the quality of life for Canadians and make you lose vote.
I think you’re mistaking illegal migration/human trafficking with government sponsored mass migration. 99% of people who immigrated to Canada with a Visa in the past 9 years will never even dream about migrating to the US because they will never be eligible. Indian community is the richest household in the US with average household income of $140k. Indian community in Canada is more like 140k applicants per Tim Horton. We are importing the lowest skilled workers that contributes nothing to our productivity.
> Indian community is the richest household in the US with average household income of $140k.
You know why this is, right? Because they have "Joint families" more than literally anyone else. Parents live with them, etc.
> Indian community is the richest household in the US with average household income of $140k. Indian community in Canada is more like 140k applicants per Tim Horton
Wrong, do people in this sub even do the most basic Google search anymore?
> People of South Korean, Chinese and South Asian extraction tend to be the top earners in Canada, broadly speaking. Latin-American and Black people are often among the lowest. Whites are mostly in the middle of the pack in terms of wages, while they are in the lower echelons in regard to university education.
https://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-astonishing-findings-on-canadian-ethnic-groups-earnings-and-education
> South Asians in Canada are far more inclined to buy a home than others, according to a large-scale consumer research report.
> The two million people who make up Canada’s South Asian population, which mostly consists of immigrants and is concentrated in Toronto and Vancouver, also have far more high-level educational degrees,
> “Compared to the average Canadian adult, South Asians are 2.2 times more likely on average to have a higher degree (than a bachelors), with those arriving within the last 10 years nearly 2.4 times more likely,”
https://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-in-canada-south-asians-four-times-as-likely-to-buy-a-home
I guess we should all be lining up for jobs at Tim Horton's if it means home ownership and a masters degree...
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List\_of\_ethnic\_groups\_in\_the\_United\_States\_by\_household\_income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ethnic_groups_in_the_United_States_by_household_income)
Yea right, homeownership is totally in line with Canada's broken economy lol, and you just proved perfectly how broken our economy is compare to the US. Our country is so finished because most of our economy is generated by people flipping houses between each other.
Your data states that immigrants owns more houses than locals. You gonna tell me that all the Asian students/immigrants here bought their houses because they all working a $200k productive/innovative job at a Fortune 500 and not just transferred their old money from their country of origin? Yeaaaaa right, we are totally importing more productive, more educated people here compare to the US, and maybe in 10 years we gonna have some Canadian Fortune 500 companies that are actually innovative/high tech and not just RBC and insurance companies thanks to the 1.3 million global elites we just imported last year haha /s
PPC ahead of GPC? INVITE THEM TO THE DEBATES!!!
PPC's anti-immigration message will resonate with a lot of people right now. That's what they're afraid of.
>**Despite Summer Heat, Liberal Troubles Remain Frozen**
>A new Ipsos poll for Global News finds that, if a federal election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would enjoy a comfortable victory over all other parties with 42% of the decided vote, though support has waned slightly since May (-2 pts). The Liberal party would garner just 24% of the vote (-1 pt), followed by the NDP (18%, +2 pts), BQ (8%, no change, 34% in Quebec), People’s Party (4%, +1 pt), and Green Party (3%, +1 pt). This continues a trend which began late last year and has now solidified the Conservatives’ lead over the other parties. Just under one in ten (8%) say they would not vote for any party and 12% are undecided.
I tried posting the AR poll but it got removed. [https://angusreid.org/federal-politics-capital-gains-inclusion/](https://angusreid.org/federal-politics-capital-gains-inclusion/)
# CPC 42 LPC 21 NDP 20 BQ 10 GPC 4
21 point lead, ouch.
The CPC should break out buglers for a sad salute when the Liberal party loses next election. It's going to be the death of the party for at least a decade.
We said the same thing in 2015 about rhe CPC and now they hold a 21 point lead. It was said that PET killed the Liberals in 1984 but 9 years later they were forming a majority government.
We tire of the guys in charge every 7-9 years no matter what happened before.
The liberals spend into infinite, until interest payments on debt are more than we spend on healthcare, then cons come and fix it as the cost of living gets too high.
Rinse repeat. Nothing is ever properly funded by taxes, as we pretend to be enlightened citizens for "helping the poor", as purchasing power for wage earners is eroded and asset prices climb.
Yup, that’s Canadian politics for you. Conservatives have to be the adults and make the cuts in order to pay down the deficits that the Liberals created.
The Conservatives have to be the bad guys, the responsible ones etc.
Clearly haven't heard of health transfer payments have you,
Incredible how you can be so confident, yet so oblivious to the situation.
Federal government transfers tax dollars from their coffers to the Provences to dole out. Our debt service fees are more than those transfers.
Thus making interest payments more than we spend on Healthcare.
**NUMBERS FROM THE BUDGETs**
[Federal - page 385](https://budget.canada.ca/2024/report-rapport/budget-2024.pdf), [Ontario - linked here](https://budget.ontario.ca/2024/brief.html#tb-3).
Federal health transfers 23-24: $49.4b
Federal debt charges 23-24: $47.2b
Ontario health spending 23-24: $84.5b
Ontario debt interest 23-24: $12.8b
Ontario spends 2x on healthcare what the federal government distributes to ALL PROVINCES.
Try again lol
The foreign interference news could also be influencing the polls, it doesnt look good for the party in power denying to release names when other partys leaders are saying there are traitors in office.
[You can read the report yourself. The conservative leadership was influenced two times. Page 32, items 72 & 73](https://www.nsicop-cpsnr.ca/reports/rp-2024-06-03/special-report-foreign-interference.pdf)
The story is inherently damaging to the liberals. Singh, despite his empty remarks stating otherwise, is tied to the hip and propping up the liberals. So he can't get any real benefit from this story, period. He can condemn the liberals all he wants; he's the one keeping them in power and has gone on record saying he won't rescind his support.
The problem is that it's not just damaging to the Liberals, it's damaging to the reputation of the system as a whole. It's better to wait until the unknowns are known, as it were.
>The only one who is actually talking about it from an informed perspective is Singh and it doesnt' seem to be benefiting him.
Well, it is NDP +2 in this poll, be interesting to see if it continues
Personally I'd want to see a jump that was outside of the margin of error, for this poll it was 3.8% so it could genuinely just be noise.
If we saw a continued trend from other polls or they poll the same in others with a smaller margin of error I think we could say they're gaining.
If it mattered, he'd vote no confidence. He's numbers are going to sink until he un-ties his boat from the liberals.
So clearly it's not nearly as big a deal as Mr Singh is insinuating.
Yeah, obviously the foreign interference stuff is hitting the Libs the hardest - but the point is that right now, we don't know \*who\* colluded. There have been many hints that the problem spans across party lines, and assuming all Conservative hands are clean in this affair (but no other party) just seems naive.
Of course anyone already partisan will continue to support their party. Anyone undecided, but even partially informed about all this, is gonna want names before making their decision. Calling for an election now risks voting guilty MPs back in, because we don't know.
I do imagine the Liberals will drag it out slowly, because they know this. But there isn't really a good alternative either.
It is. The prosecution would take some time, and the seats aren't vacated unless the MP is convicted and sentenced to more than two years in prison. Waiting until the report is released gives us time to get ahead of potential problems.
The seats may not be vacated, but they certainly aren't getting briefs while being prosecuted.
Whether they prosecute now or after the election makes zero difference.
The dip in Conservative support may have something to do with PP's reaction to that, as he knows his own caucus is just as deep in that particular mire as the left parties are.
But the foreign interference scandal doesn't seem to have moved the needle for the Liberals at all. They've stayed in the low 20s for months now, and I think that 21-24% of people would probably still vote Liberal if Trudeau showed up at their house and started murdering puppies in their front lawn. The Nanos polls showing them higher than that were just wrong. It's about the fourth time in the past year that Nanos published a series of polls showing a Liberal recovery only for all of the other major polling firms to release data that contradicted them. It's either due to bad sampling or a deliberate attempt to gaslight the public into perceiving the Liberals as still viable. I think Nik Nanos understands better than most that opinion polls are a means of manufacturing public opinion, not just measuring it.
The real story if the recent polls is that the Bloc is surging even more in Quebec. They could end up with 50+ seats on these numbers. If that happens, the Liberals will lose all of their Quebec seats except urban Montreal, and we'll end up with the BQ as the official opposition and the Cons above 200 seats.
>The dip in Conservative support may have something to do with PP's reaction to that, as he knows his own caucus is just as deep in that particular mire as the left parties are.
Source?
You mean aside from the fact that he opted not to bother reading the unredacted report so he could continue to pretend his own party isn't just as corrupted by foreign money as the Liberals are?
He decided not to receive the security clearance required to read the unredacted report because it would severely limit his ability to talk about it in public.
>and I think that 21-24% of people would probably still vote Liberal if Trudeau showed up at their house and started murdering puppies in their front lawn.
It's because there's a difference in values. Some people believe in Liberal values and will never vote Conservative. The Conservative party is perceived as being anti-LGBTQ and anti-abortion, and that rules them out of contention for a lot of Canadians. They may be disappointed by the actions of those in charge, but they will not vote against their values.
Foreign interference isn't going to help the liberals. Trudeau is handling it exceptionally badly by not taking it seriously.
As for the conservatives, I suspect a lot of conservatives would vote for them anyway even fi they were named. The fact the leadership convention nominating PP came up repeatedly in the report is almost beside the point. They're also handling it badly but the standards are much lower, apparently.
70% of the comservatibe caucus supported PP. He was a favorite before the leadership race. Your making it seem like their was a plausible other option, when that certainly was not the case.
Every single traitor sitting in Commons right now won their local election too. That's not really where the problem arises, its' more a question of how much manipualtion went into securing that original total, especially in leadership races where signing up members is the name of the game. It would take a lot of effort to manipulate that but it is somewhat of a vulnerability. It also does not rule out other levels of interference.
Essentially that doesn't mean a lot.
I wasn't suggesting that the scandal would help the Liberals, only that it doesn't seem to be tanking them any lower than they already were. As for the Cons, you're right. People are desperate for a viable alternative to the Liberals, and they seem to think the Cons are the only choice. It's unfortunate, and it's just going to result in more if the same. There is only one party that has promised to actually do something about the core issue that's causing so many of our problems, and it's also one of the only parties, along with the BQ, that seems to have clean hands in the foreign interference scandal.
Nanos uses a four week rolling average of their weekly polls, where each week they drop off the oldest results and add in the newest. So for them to have had such a massive jump in one week it means last week there was a HUGE upswing in a single week that dragged the four week average up so far. That seems very unlikely. My guess is there was a typo in their data somewhere that nobody noticed before they released the results. Liberals dropped a fair amount again in their current week, which I expect to see over the next few weeks while the aberration week works its way through.
Was it a typo when they did the same thing three months ago? Or in January? Or in September of last year? Why is it that every few months, Nanos suddenly shows inorganic swings in favour of the Liberals, only to normalize a couple of weeks later after every other pollster's data doesn't corroborate it?
Well, they could also get review bombed by Liberal supporters depending on methodology, or I suppose Nanos, who *hates* the Tories, could be trying to give the Liberals a boost, but that second one seems unlikely. His business is polling, he’d be out of business pretty fast if people thought he deliberately skews the results. Plus, never attribute to malice what could be explained by incompetence.
Hanlon's Razor is a false dichotomy, because the answer is usually both.
As I said above, opinion polling is as much a tool for manufacturing public opinion as it is for measuring it, and speaking as someone who hates the Liberals and the Tories equally, it seems clear that Nanos' quarterly deviations from the trend line, either showing an artificial dip in Conservative support or an inorganic bump for the Liberals, are deliberate efforts to skew the electorate against the Cons, and to gaslight other pollsters into reevaluating their own data when it doesn't match what the Best Pollster In The Country^^TM is showing. It makes me wonder in how many previous election cycles they have successfully used that tactic.
I'm really stoked for the NDP to reach the Grits in polling. It would free up a lot of NDP voters from feeling obligated to strategically vote for a party they don't agree with.
I'm telling you people, Canadian voters are stupid, they don't make rational decisions, this is why Canadian politics doesn't make any rational sense to normal people.
I would hope that Pollievre would remove his ass from the ballot.
If he didn't, I guess either a PPC protest vote, or hope for an independant to run. Can't vote for this iteration of NDP or Liberal, and I'm not voting for a traitor.
PPC trending upwards is an interesting sign.
I hear more people around me talk openly of voting PPC. For some it's a protest, but for others it's the long game. The issues people are discussing here will not be solved by any of the major parties. CPC might slow it down, but that is not good enough anymore.
the long game of voting for a party that might not exist in a decade?
Well, it sure won't if everybody has the same defeatist attitude as you. Thankfully this is not the case. I'm voting PPC for the foreseeable future, and encouraging friends and family to do the same. PPC is the only party with a platform that will help the average Canadian currently.
Ok, so I checked out their website and platform A People’s Party government will: * Repeal the *Canada Health Act* * Modify the Criminal Code to outlaw the use of puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones, and any form of bodily mutilation on minors with the goal of “transitioning” to another sex. Moreover, any person encouraging minors to “transition” could be held criminally responsible for attempting to cause harm. * Modify the Bank of Canada’s inflation target, from 2% to 0%. This will cool down inflation in all sectors, including housing. * Replace the *Firearms Act* and supporting legislation with new legislation that will prioritize effective measures to improve public safety and fight crime in Canada. * Counter anti-oil and anti-pipeline propaganda from radical environmentalists and foreign foundations. * Restrict the definition of hate speech in the *Criminal Code* to expression which explicitly advocates the use of force against identifiable groups or persons based on protected criteria such as religion, race, ethnicity, sex, or sexual orientation. * Repeal any existing legislation or regulation curtailing free speech on the internet and prevent the reinstatement of section 13 of the *Canadian Human Rights Act*. * Withdraw from the Paris Accord and abandon unrealistic greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. * Invest in adaptation strategies if problems arise as a result of any natural climate change. * Fire the Chief Public Health Officer of Canada Theresa Tam and replace her with someone who will work with provincial agencies to implement a rational approach to the pandemic, instead of following the recommendations of the World Health Organization. They're just a different flavor of CPC. Buuuut, I'll give them props for actually having a platform.
The biggest haters on the PPC mostly come from landlords who enjoy our current housing ponzi scheme. They'll attack the PPC for anything, but the real reason they care is money.
Not sure id say defeatist, im rooting for PPC’s eventual fade into obscurity.
They will exist in some form or another. This is guaranteed. Canada will not survive under the current main parties. None of them are looking out for the interest of Canadians, and beyond that, are actively *against* our interests.
Whatever you say
which one of the parties are actually doing things that benefit Canadian citizens?
None of them, and ppc would be no different. We have to entirely change how our government functions in order to fix the busted state we’re in at every level.
What do you suggest?
Off the top of my head the banning of MP’s owning rental properties or investing in most companies, or at least full transparency. Removal of FPTP. Beyond that i dont know, im not in the political sphere so many aspects of it are unknown to me.
Doesn’t really mean anything until they get a seat, especially since they lost the only seat last election
Who would’ve thought that by making us the easiest country in G7 to enter as a low skill migrants will lower the quality of life for Canadians and make you lose vote.
It's still easier to enter America as a low skill migrant than it is to enter Canada.
Not legally, An immigrant isn't the same as a migrant.
I think you’re mistaking illegal migration/human trafficking with government sponsored mass migration. 99% of people who immigrated to Canada with a Visa in the past 9 years will never even dream about migrating to the US because they will never be eligible. Indian community is the richest household in the US with average household income of $140k. Indian community in Canada is more like 140k applicants per Tim Horton. We are importing the lowest skilled workers that contributes nothing to our productivity.
> Indian community is the richest household in the US with average household income of $140k. You know why this is, right? Because they have "Joint families" more than literally anyone else. Parents live with them, etc.
> Indian community is the richest household in the US with average household income of $140k. Indian community in Canada is more like 140k applicants per Tim Horton Wrong, do people in this sub even do the most basic Google search anymore? > People of South Korean, Chinese and South Asian extraction tend to be the top earners in Canada, broadly speaking. Latin-American and Black people are often among the lowest. Whites are mostly in the middle of the pack in terms of wages, while they are in the lower echelons in regard to university education. https://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-astonishing-findings-on-canadian-ethnic-groups-earnings-and-education > South Asians in Canada are far more inclined to buy a home than others, according to a large-scale consumer research report. > The two million people who make up Canada’s South Asian population, which mostly consists of immigrants and is concentrated in Toronto and Vancouver, also have far more high-level educational degrees, > “Compared to the average Canadian adult, South Asians are 2.2 times more likely on average to have a higher degree (than a bachelors), with those arriving within the last 10 years nearly 2.4 times more likely,” https://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-in-canada-south-asians-four-times-as-likely-to-buy-a-home I guess we should all be lining up for jobs at Tim Horton's if it means home ownership and a masters degree...
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List\_of\_ethnic\_groups\_in\_the\_United\_States\_by\_household\_income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ethnic_groups_in_the_United_States_by_household_income) Yea right, homeownership is totally in line with Canada's broken economy lol, and you just proved perfectly how broken our economy is compare to the US. Our country is so finished because most of our economy is generated by people flipping houses between each other. Your data states that immigrants owns more houses than locals. You gonna tell me that all the Asian students/immigrants here bought their houses because they all working a $200k productive/innovative job at a Fortune 500 and not just transferred their old money from their country of origin? Yeaaaaa right, we are totally importing more productive, more educated people here compare to the US, and maybe in 10 years we gonna have some Canadian Fortune 500 companies that are actually innovative/high tech and not just RBC and insurance companies thanks to the 1.3 million global elites we just imported last year haha /s
PPC ahead of GPC? INVITE THEM TO THE DEBATES!!! PPC's anti-immigration message will resonate with a lot of people right now. That's what they're afraid of.
>**Despite Summer Heat, Liberal Troubles Remain Frozen** >A new Ipsos poll for Global News finds that, if a federal election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would enjoy a comfortable victory over all other parties with 42% of the decided vote, though support has waned slightly since May (-2 pts). The Liberal party would garner just 24% of the vote (-1 pt), followed by the NDP (18%, +2 pts), BQ (8%, no change, 34% in Quebec), People’s Party (4%, +1 pt), and Green Party (3%, +1 pt). This continues a trend which began late last year and has now solidified the Conservatives’ lead over the other parties. Just under one in ten (8%) say they would not vote for any party and 12% are undecided.
I tried posting the AR poll but it got removed. [https://angusreid.org/federal-politics-capital-gains-inclusion/](https://angusreid.org/federal-politics-capital-gains-inclusion/) # CPC 42 LPC 21 NDP 20 BQ 10 GPC 4
21 point lead, ouch. The CPC should break out buglers for a sad salute when the Liberal party loses next election. It's going to be the death of the party for at least a decade.
wait until you see the QC regional, that is final nail in coffin.
Heh, another poll showing the Tories ahead of the Liberals in Quebec. Brutal.
We said the same thing in 2015 about rhe CPC and now they hold a 21 point lead. It was said that PET killed the Liberals in 1984 but 9 years later they were forming a majority government. We tire of the guys in charge every 7-9 years no matter what happened before.
The liberals spend into infinite, until interest payments on debt are more than we spend on healthcare, then cons come and fix it as the cost of living gets too high. Rinse repeat. Nothing is ever properly funded by taxes, as we pretend to be enlightened citizens for "helping the poor", as purchasing power for wage earners is eroded and asset prices climb.
Yup, that’s Canadian politics for you. Conservatives have to be the adults and make the cuts in order to pay down the deficits that the Liberals created. The Conservatives have to be the bad guys, the responsible ones etc.
No, cons add to deficits by cutting taxes on the wealthy and corporations while cutting the few small expenditures that actually help people.
Help people, like the so called progressives have? Is this help, and when does austerity start to pay down all the accrued debt?
[удалено]
Clearly haven't heard of health transfer payments have you, Incredible how you can be so confident, yet so oblivious to the situation. Federal government transfers tax dollars from their coffers to the Provences to dole out. Our debt service fees are more than those transfers. Thus making interest payments more than we spend on Healthcare.
**NUMBERS FROM THE BUDGETs** [Federal - page 385](https://budget.canada.ca/2024/report-rapport/budget-2024.pdf), [Ontario - linked here](https://budget.ontario.ca/2024/brief.html#tb-3). Federal health transfers 23-24: $49.4b Federal debt charges 23-24: $47.2b Ontario health spending 23-24: $84.5b Ontario debt interest 23-24: $12.8b Ontario spends 2x on healthcare what the federal government distributes to ALL PROVINCES. Try again lol
Bro has an Alberta flair, he is immune to facts and data.
Thats what they said in 1984 and 2011
Third one in three days. Once again it seems all those recent Nanos polls showing the Liberals back up in the high 20s were just unfortunate outliers.
The foreign interference news could also be influencing the polls, it doesnt look good for the party in power denying to release names when other partys leaders are saying there are traitors in office.
[You can read the report yourself. The conservative leadership was influenced two times. Page 32, items 72 & 73](https://www.nsicop-cpsnr.ca/reports/rp-2024-06-03/special-report-foreign-interference.pdf)
The only one who is actually talking about it from an informed perspective is Singh and it doesnt' seem to be benefiting him.
The story is inherently damaging to the liberals. Singh, despite his empty remarks stating otherwise, is tied to the hip and propping up the liberals. So he can't get any real benefit from this story, period. He can condemn the liberals all he wants; he's the one keeping them in power and has gone on record saying he won't rescind his support.
The problem is that it's not just damaging to the Liberals, it's damaging to the reputation of the system as a whole. It's better to wait until the unknowns are known, as it were.
>The only one who is actually talking about it from an informed perspective is Singh and it doesnt' seem to be benefiting him. Well, it is NDP +2 in this poll, be interesting to see if it continues
NDP numbers have been flatly consistent since the last election. The supply & confidence agreement is neither helping nor hurting them.
I wouldn't put much weight on a couple points, that's just as likely noise.
[удалено]
Personally I'd want to see a jump that was outside of the margin of error, for this poll it was 3.8% so it could genuinely just be noise. If we saw a continued trend from other polls or they poll the same in others with a smaller margin of error I think we could say they're gaining.
A shift that's bigger than the margin of error is a big one.
If it mattered, he'd vote no confidence. He's numbers are going to sink until he un-ties his boat from the liberals. So clearly it's not nearly as big a deal as Mr Singh is insinuating.
Ah, so let's have an election not knowing who the traitors are before re-electing them?
Yeah, obviously the foreign interference stuff is hitting the Libs the hardest - but the point is that right now, we don't know \*who\* colluded. There have been many hints that the problem spans across party lines, and assuming all Conservative hands are clean in this affair (but no other party) just seems naive. Of course anyone already partisan will continue to support their party. Anyone undecided, but even partially informed about all this, is gonna want names before making their decision. Calling for an election now risks voting guilty MPs back in, because we don't know. I do imagine the Liberals will drag it out slowly, because they know this. But there isn't really a good alternative either.
No one with a brain is suggesting that the Conservatives are fully clean, they're just suggesting that the Liberals are in much deeper.
Whether they're re-elected or not, if they're guilty they'll be prosecuted. This line in the sand you've drawn is not, by any means, a critical one.
It is. The prosecution would take some time, and the seats aren't vacated unless the MP is convicted and sentenced to more than two years in prison. Waiting until the report is released gives us time to get ahead of potential problems.
The seats may not be vacated, but they certainly aren't getting briefs while being prosecuted. Whether they prosecute now or after the election makes zero difference.
If we wait for the election then we will have time to see them removed from the ballot, which solves a lot of those problems.
Not really. They'll have to stop briefing them whether they're freshly elected or elected 2 years ago.
The dip in Conservative support may have something to do with PP's reaction to that, as he knows his own caucus is just as deep in that particular mire as the left parties are. But the foreign interference scandal doesn't seem to have moved the needle for the Liberals at all. They've stayed in the low 20s for months now, and I think that 21-24% of people would probably still vote Liberal if Trudeau showed up at their house and started murdering puppies in their front lawn. The Nanos polls showing them higher than that were just wrong. It's about the fourth time in the past year that Nanos published a series of polls showing a Liberal recovery only for all of the other major polling firms to release data that contradicted them. It's either due to bad sampling or a deliberate attempt to gaslight the public into perceiving the Liberals as still viable. I think Nik Nanos understands better than most that opinion polls are a means of manufacturing public opinion, not just measuring it. The real story if the recent polls is that the Bloc is surging even more in Quebec. They could end up with 50+ seats on these numbers. If that happens, the Liberals will lose all of their Quebec seats except urban Montreal, and we'll end up with the BQ as the official opposition and the Cons above 200 seats.
>The dip in Conservative support may have something to do with PP's reaction to that, as he knows his own caucus is just as deep in that particular mire as the left parties are. Source?
You mean aside from the fact that he opted not to bother reading the unredacted report so he could continue to pretend his own party isn't just as corrupted by foreign money as the Liberals are?
So you have no source, just some wild allegations with no evidence?
He decided not to receive the security clearance required to read the unredacted report because it would severely limit his ability to talk about it in public.
That rationale makes sense, until you notice that he's just as desperate as Trudeau and Singh to talk about anything else.
>and I think that 21-24% of people would probably still vote Liberal if Trudeau showed up at their house and started murdering puppies in their front lawn. It's because there's a difference in values. Some people believe in Liberal values and will never vote Conservative. The Conservative party is perceived as being anti-LGBTQ and anti-abortion, and that rules them out of contention for a lot of Canadians. They may be disappointed by the actions of those in charge, but they will not vote against their values.
Foreign interference isn't going to help the liberals. Trudeau is handling it exceptionally badly by not taking it seriously. As for the conservatives, I suspect a lot of conservatives would vote for them anyway even fi they were named. The fact the leadership convention nominating PP came up repeatedly in the report is almost beside the point. They're also handling it badly but the standards are much lower, apparently.
70% of the comservatibe caucus supported PP. He was a favorite before the leadership race. Your making it seem like their was a plausible other option, when that certainly was not the case.
Every single traitor sitting in Commons right now won their local election too. That's not really where the problem arises, its' more a question of how much manipualtion went into securing that original total, especially in leadership races where signing up members is the name of the game. It would take a lot of effort to manipulate that but it is somewhat of a vulnerability. It also does not rule out other levels of interference. Essentially that doesn't mean a lot.
I wasn't suggesting that the scandal would help the Liberals, only that it doesn't seem to be tanking them any lower than they already were. As for the Cons, you're right. People are desperate for a viable alternative to the Liberals, and they seem to think the Cons are the only choice. It's unfortunate, and it's just going to result in more if the same. There is only one party that has promised to actually do something about the core issue that's causing so many of our problems, and it's also one of the only parties, along with the BQ, that seems to have clean hands in the foreign interference scandal.
Or the leader of the Conservatives who was colluding with India/China
There is no evidence of this at all.
Nanos uses a four week rolling average of their weekly polls, where each week they drop off the oldest results and add in the newest. So for them to have had such a massive jump in one week it means last week there was a HUGE upswing in a single week that dragged the four week average up so far. That seems very unlikely. My guess is there was a typo in their data somewhere that nobody noticed before they released the results. Liberals dropped a fair amount again in their current week, which I expect to see over the next few weeks while the aberration week works its way through.
Was it a typo when they did the same thing three months ago? Or in January? Or in September of last year? Why is it that every few months, Nanos suddenly shows inorganic swings in favour of the Liberals, only to normalize a couple of weeks later after every other pollster's data doesn't corroborate it?
Well, they could also get review bombed by Liberal supporters depending on methodology, or I suppose Nanos, who *hates* the Tories, could be trying to give the Liberals a boost, but that second one seems unlikely. His business is polling, he’d be out of business pretty fast if people thought he deliberately skews the results. Plus, never attribute to malice what could be explained by incompetence.
Hanlon's Razor is a false dichotomy, because the answer is usually both. As I said above, opinion polling is as much a tool for manufacturing public opinion as it is for measuring it, and speaking as someone who hates the Liberals and the Tories equally, it seems clear that Nanos' quarterly deviations from the trend line, either showing an artificial dip in Conservative support or an inorganic bump for the Liberals, are deliberate efforts to skew the electorate against the Cons, and to gaslight other pollsters into reevaluating their own data when it doesn't match what the Best Pollster In The Country^^TM is showing. It makes me wonder in how many previous election cycles they have successfully used that tactic.
> Best Pollster In The Country That would be Léger.
I'm really stoked for the NDP to reach the Grits in polling. It would free up a lot of NDP voters from feeling obligated to strategically vote for a party they don't agree with.
[удалено]
I think you're getting the nickname "grits" confused with "Tories"
Happens all the time in Western Canada.
What does that have to do with the comment you are replying to?
Do we know how this translates to seats?
We will see on Sunday when 338 Canada consolidates the numbers from all polls into seat counts.
NDP +2. Singh buys new rolex.
> Singh buys new Rolex. Singh receives a Rolex for free from an 'influencer'.
Plot twist, Singh is the influencer.
How likely is it the terrible 2 will officially team up next election?
Zero
I'm telling you people, Canadian voters are stupid, they don't make rational decisions, this is why Canadian politics doesn't make any rational sense to normal people.
I will ask, to the usual gang of downvoters, who you plan to vote for if you find out your local Conservative candidate is on the list of traitors.
i would vote for PPC, personally.
PPC platform has some great ideas about how to fix our broken economy. Will you still vote NDP if they are on the list of traitors?
I would hope that Pollievre would remove his ass from the ballot. If he didn't, I guess either a PPC protest vote, or hope for an independant to run. Can't vote for this iteration of NDP or Liberal, and I'm not voting for a traitor.
Ironic, I bet 42% of the cpc are traitors too. Ok, maybe like 99% if you add traitors to humanity
The ceiling has been hit, folks!
Or rock bottom
The CPC has peaked too soon! They would be better off with much lower polling results.
[удалено]