Yeah just secured a rental with rent control and I'm probably gonna enjoy that with my daughter and wife for a long time. Hopefully this shit hits the fan already.
if by "success" you mean boundless expansion of wealth onto peoples personal property, youd be wrong; you need to be born into wealth and ruthlessly expand it by gambling it into the market 🥰🌸
Who's "success" do you speak of? Is owning some bricks the only path to success ? Is it the only metric of success?
I dont give a shit about owning a home lol Id rather have somebody else pay for repairs and invest my money in something else. I've got a job with an amazing pension. Get myself a nice 5th wheel when I retire and a truck. No need to circle jerk in real estate with everybody else.
Good for you, man. Was just wondering about the
" Can't wait until the shit hits the fan already," comment
Seems a little bitter
Anyway, you do you. Keep your head up
All of this is just propping up the housing market. That's all the government is doing. Kicking the can down the road. We are not in a better situation than we were before and unless they let things correct itself , nothing will change. We have an artificial economy based on fake housing values.
When I say I can't wait till shit hits the fan. I mean I can't wait for the government to not have control over how this shit goes down. Things will get worse and then we can slowly get better, hopefully in a more sustainable way, that's fair to everybody. Including people who don't already own homes, or can't afford this absurd rent.
Houses in the outskirts of Guelph and K/W are selling for over a million dollars. People 10 years ago bought it for 500k.
You telling me something over an hour away from the city is worth more than a million dollars ?
It's all bs, and it'll pop eventually.
I hear you, but how will it pop? Do you think housing prices will suddenly become affordable for all?
If there is any crash at all, there will be huge unemployment rates everywhere. It's a doomed If you do , doomed if you don't type system unfortunately.
Yeah, both options are shitty. But you've got a whole generation of people who can't afford anything, and it's all to prop up irresponsible decisions from people who rely solely on their home values to retire.
How do you sacrifice a whole generqtion of people so old farts can have a comfortable retirement? Not even just comfortable, luxurious. Own nice cars, a couple homes (one in Florida ). Fly all over the place, constantly upgrade their house. How? Most of them making no more than an average wage.
Owning a home should mean you are high class or get a free pass to retirement. It isn't antibodies fault they these people decided to take advantage and exacerbate an issue. It's already a huge issue, and the votes will show that. We want somebody who will make housing affordable by any means necessary.
We have good talented and smart people leaving the country cuz why tf would they stay here when they can thrive somewhere else ?
You gonna replace these people with Tim's workers and Uber drivers ?
The country is filling itself with useless people
This is a clear indication that our economy is not strong enough to handle high interest rates. Which spells big trouble for us if the US decides to raise there base interest rate even higher. A decoupling will crash the Canadian Dollar.
The BOC is probably sweating over the fact that mortgage renewals are coming up for most mortgage holders in the next couple of years and know for a fact that it will crash the economy when no one can afford their new mortgage.
The next decade outlook is grim. Canada failed at securing it's spot as a future global leader. Keep buying houses and pumping that GDP! Not only are all our houses for rent, so is our country!
A decoupling will benefit our exports (which is nothing) and increase the cost of our imports (which is everything).
Good news is US economy is showing weakness in an election year meaning they are more likely to follow suit.
> our exports (which is nothing) and increase the cost of our imports (which is everything)
Canada exports to the US [exceed imports from the US](https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c1220.html)
EDIT: Sorry for citing US government statistics I deserve the downvotes here, obviously they're just Trudeau Liberal fake stats, right???
Are there any indications the US would raise again? I understand they’ve delayed cuts because of jobs data, but not sure there’s anything to suggest a further cut is likely.
Depends of the source, but yes, there are some comments amd "estimations" out there about a possible raise this year. Inflation still "sticky" in US and the economy is doing well (again, depends the source).
The fed releases some data tomorrow, that will influence their decision to cut or not. I don't expect them to raise rates though. Investors and homebuyers are antsy for a rate cut and Biden doesn't want to have the country approaching recession before November.
American investors expect rate cuts this year. If Trump gets into office next year, he will lean on the fed to cut rates as well. In that regard, things look good. Recession in Canada looks unlikely but the housing bubble is a persistent problem that is not going anywhere.
.25 is practically nothing for affordability but people are emotional idiots, which is how we got here, so probably. Still had bidding wars when rates were going up
4.75% is the rate that the banks are lending to each other, it's not the consumer rate that me and you would get. Bank prime rates are around 2% higher than the overnight rate. So your variable rate mortgages are still in the rough 6% range, which differs by financial institution. That's still historically on the higher side.
>That's still historically on the higher side.
I disagree.
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/ca/mortgages/mortgage-rates-history/
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/selected_historical_v122497.pdf
I will leave the auto correct just because it bothers you so much.
I'm not sure if you renters "love" me, but I sure love those sweet, sweet rent checks every month.
Lots of borrowers/real estate agents/mortgage brokers I know are really happy and think of this as the end of the real estate slowdown that started in ealey 2022. But they may soon realize that this cut was small potatoes and will barely help... Mortgages have embedded convexity (bond math term). When the BoC cuts, Prime goes down, which helps floating mortgages, sure -- but the magnitude of the cut isnt always equal: having your Prime-1% floating mortgage go from 6.2% to 5.95% (happening today june 2024) is a very small relief compared to the incredible power of some cuts made during covid that brought some floating mortgages from like 1.95 to 1.70. You can think of it roughly as: "interest relief"= "rate post-cut"/"rate pre-cut" -1.
This being said, every further cut will become more and more material, again because of convexity. Personally I hope the BoC cuts less than expected so the market doesnt skyrocket and reward moral hazard once again... One can only dream
Well, guess I’ll just get comfortable in my crappy little rental.
Yeah just secured a rental with rent control and I'm probably gonna enjoy that with my daughter and wife for a long time. Hopefully this shit hits the fan already.
Great attitude to success
if by "success" you mean boundless expansion of wealth onto peoples personal property, youd be wrong; you need to be born into wealth and ruthlessly expand it by gambling it into the market 🥰🌸
Who's "success" do you speak of? Is owning some bricks the only path to success ? Is it the only metric of success? I dont give a shit about owning a home lol Id rather have somebody else pay for repairs and invest my money in something else. I've got a job with an amazing pension. Get myself a nice 5th wheel when I retire and a truck. No need to circle jerk in real estate with everybody else.
Good for you, man. Was just wondering about the " Can't wait until the shit hits the fan already," comment Seems a little bitter Anyway, you do you. Keep your head up
All of this is just propping up the housing market. That's all the government is doing. Kicking the can down the road. We are not in a better situation than we were before and unless they let things correct itself , nothing will change. We have an artificial economy based on fake housing values. When I say I can't wait till shit hits the fan. I mean I can't wait for the government to not have control over how this shit goes down. Things will get worse and then we can slowly get better, hopefully in a more sustainable way, that's fair to everybody. Including people who don't already own homes, or can't afford this absurd rent. Houses in the outskirts of Guelph and K/W are selling for over a million dollars. People 10 years ago bought it for 500k. You telling me something over an hour away from the city is worth more than a million dollars ? It's all bs, and it'll pop eventually.
I hear you, but how will it pop? Do you think housing prices will suddenly become affordable for all? If there is any crash at all, there will be huge unemployment rates everywhere. It's a doomed If you do , doomed if you don't type system unfortunately.
Yeah, both options are shitty. But you've got a whole generation of people who can't afford anything, and it's all to prop up irresponsible decisions from people who rely solely on their home values to retire. How do you sacrifice a whole generqtion of people so old farts can have a comfortable retirement? Not even just comfortable, luxurious. Own nice cars, a couple homes (one in Florida ). Fly all over the place, constantly upgrade their house. How? Most of them making no more than an average wage. Owning a home should mean you are high class or get a free pass to retirement. It isn't antibodies fault they these people decided to take advantage and exacerbate an issue. It's already a huge issue, and the votes will show that. We want somebody who will make housing affordable by any means necessary. We have good talented and smart people leaving the country cuz why tf would they stay here when they can thrive somewhere else ? You gonna replace these people with Tim's workers and Uber drivers ? The country is filling itself with useless people
I don't know a single person who has "succeed" in Ontario. Where is this success?
This is a clear indication that our economy is not strong enough to handle high interest rates. Which spells big trouble for us if the US decides to raise there base interest rate even higher. A decoupling will crash the Canadian Dollar. The BOC is probably sweating over the fact that mortgage renewals are coming up for most mortgage holders in the next couple of years and know for a fact that it will crash the economy when no one can afford their new mortgage. The next decade outlook is grim. Canada failed at securing it's spot as a future global leader. Keep buying houses and pumping that GDP! Not only are all our houses for rent, so is our country!
A decoupling will benefit our exports (which is nothing) and increase the cost of our imports (which is everything). Good news is US economy is showing weakness in an election year meaning they are more likely to follow suit.
> our exports (which is nothing) and increase the cost of our imports (which is everything) Canada exports to the US [exceed imports from the US](https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c1220.html) EDIT: Sorry for citing US government statistics I deserve the downvotes here, obviously they're just Trudeau Liberal fake stats, right???
Trump wants rate cuts too so there is reason to be bullish into 2025.
Yeah asshat...a dicktator is definitely bullish.
Yeah, for markets Stay mad
Are there any indications the US would raise again? I understand they’ve delayed cuts because of jobs data, but not sure there’s anything to suggest a further cut is likely.
Depends of the source, but yes, there are some comments amd "estimations" out there about a possible raise this year. Inflation still "sticky" in US and the economy is doing well (again, depends the source).
The fed releases some data tomorrow, that will influence their decision to cut or not. I don't expect them to raise rates though. Investors and homebuyers are antsy for a rate cut and Biden doesn't want to have the country approaching recession before November.
I wish I was smart enough to understand this
American investors expect rate cuts this year. If Trump gets into office next year, he will lean on the fed to cut rates as well. In that regard, things look good. Recession in Canada looks unlikely but the housing bubble is a persistent problem that is not going anywhere.
Recession has already started in Canada. This will be Canada's GFC. The US will likely have a soft recession and Canada a hard deleveraging.
Lol ok there bud. Try a lil harder to manifest that into reality.
Don't have to, it's already started.
Big surprise...
I feel like all that excess condo inventory is going to start shrinking soon…. FML
Don't you like it how Gods love investors and come to their assistance right when they need it.
Rich keep getting richer
Majestic.
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2020 interest rates: 1.75% 2024 interest rates: 4.75% = doubt
Bought a house middle of last year, bidding wars are absolutely still happening.
Which really goes to show this "housing market" is anything but a "market" just a big gambling ring we like to call "our economy."
Bought a house two months ago, bidding wars for decent houses are absolutely still happening.
Might depend on your area. It was definitely a buyer's market in Ottawa late last year.
It’s the direction that matters, not the quantity.
You might see a small blip in activity from buyers at the very margin. But it is 100% the level that matters in the long run.
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I'll believe it when I see it
Elections are approaching, expect a few cuts yes
Why do you say that? Does inflation decline faster during elections?
lol
I think he’s implying of a way of “buying” voters
4.75 is the new 1.75. There will be bidding wars everywhere with people taking variable rate now.
Then inflation comes back in 2025, and bank of canada has to hike rates and leveraged are stuck or f*cked.
Exactly :(
Why would it come back?
https://youtu.be/F72VdHaZlGw?si=5rJByaM0nJ50pLyI
Why would rates go up if oil price goes down?
Why? Variable rates are still way higher than fixed. Even if there's a couple of more cuts it'll still be higher
If they drop multiple times and we get down to the 3% area will you say that’s the new .75%?
No but there will be bidding wars at 3% now just like there was at 1.75% then.
People are front running further cuts
.25 is practically nothing for affordability but people are emotional idiots, which is how we got here, so probably. Still had bidding wars when rates were going up
For sure they were still having bidding wars. House prices in my area still went up even despite the higher rates.
Am I crazy 4.75% isn’t THAT bad and seems “reasonable” considering what you’re borrowing Obv less than 3 wasn’t a thing to stay lol
4.75% is the rate that the banks are lending to each other, it's not the consumer rate that me and you would get. Bank prime rates are around 2% higher than the overnight rate. So your variable rate mortgages are still in the rough 6% range, which differs by financial institution. That's still historically on the higher side.
>That's still historically on the higher side. I disagree. https://www.forbes.com/advisor/ca/mortgages/mortgage-rates-history/ https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/selected_historical_v122497.pdf
BOC cuts rates because something is broken in the economy. Rough future ahead for Canada imo only a matter of time before it’s exposed 📉
Won't go down to 3% or so for another 18 months, minimum.
🚀
Well, what can we say. At least let the homeowners have a break.
I wonder how long it will take MCAP to lower my variable rate mortgage. With hikes it was always less than 1 day.
Seems to have been updated!
Awesome. That didn't take long, luckily.
Bullish
Gonna be a sad, sad day for the bears
Yes this one small rate cut will certainly turn the entire market around.
Have more patients, you can be priced out further
Quite presumptuous for someone who can't spell patience right. I bet your renters love you.
I will leave the auto correct just because it bothers you so much. I'm not sure if you renters "love" me, but I sure love those sweet, sweet rent checks every month.
Loving the spelling.
Me too, enjoy!
Go to sleep tonight knowing you're a bad person.
Like a baby, in my own house, not caring what someone from reddit thinks of me.
Lots of borrowers/real estate agents/mortgage brokers I know are really happy and think of this as the end of the real estate slowdown that started in ealey 2022. But they may soon realize that this cut was small potatoes and will barely help... Mortgages have embedded convexity (bond math term). When the BoC cuts, Prime goes down, which helps floating mortgages, sure -- but the magnitude of the cut isnt always equal: having your Prime-1% floating mortgage go from 6.2% to 5.95% (happening today june 2024) is a very small relief compared to the incredible power of some cuts made during covid that brought some floating mortgages from like 1.95 to 1.70. You can think of it roughly as: "interest relief"= "rate post-cut"/"rate pre-cut" -1. This being said, every further cut will become more and more material, again because of convexity. Personally I hope the BoC cuts less than expected so the market doesnt skyrocket and reward moral hazard once again... One can only dream
More coming. This is just the beginning
The housing market can take right fxxxxing off.