The following submission statement was provided by /u/Cosmicpixie:
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Submission statement: scores of millions of tons of staple grains and crops are grown in these areas. Mass crop failure is a real risk here: ~42 degrees C is about the limit before plants start to lose cellular stability and begin dying. This breadbasket feeds not just India's 1.4 billion, but exports to 120 other countries as well. What happens if this continues?
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Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1dkd7rg/agriculture_at_risk_as_vast_swathe_of_india/l9gvx68/
A region where 3 countries with nukes directly border each other? Check! Extremely vulnerable to climate change? Check! All 3 countries have tense border disputes? Check! One of those 3 countries is politically unstable on a good day? Triple check!
What could go wrong?
Want to point out that China’s agriculture is also at risk right now, particularly in this province which produces a quarter of China’s wheat. Severe drought across 63% of arable land in Henan.
China is the world's largest producer and consumer of wheat, although the country produces 1.5 times more rice. The problem also lies in that the provinces currently under drought (Shandong & Henan) are supposed to be some of the most agriculturally productive provinces.
WW3 is already in progress. America and NATO are fighting Russia, China, Iran and North Korea via proxy wars in Ukraine and Gaza, Syria, Sudan and more.
Check out this neat little list: [List of proxy wars - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_proxy_wars#Ongoing_proxy_wars)
And this is just the stuff you can see and are being told about. WW3 has both hot and cold components. I am certain there is all manner of action happening in the covert, clandestine and cyber war spaces. It's all downhill from here. Don't need to worry about climate change for now, the emissions from the ever-expanding wars will dim the climate into submission, I am sure!
I wouldn't worry about China and India, they're more likely to fight each other considering they're not exactly friends and they have an increasingly ugly border dispute.
Good news is most of those countries don't really like each other at all. Hell china is looking like its preparing to colonize Russia when it's war in Ukraine just completely depletes it's military. My guess is only putin being alive is keeping Russia together right now.
Once Russia loses it's dictator it'll fall into chaos and China will "modestly assume peacekeeping duties in the region for the UN" of course in reality it'll effectively enslave local Russians for resource production that will be sent back to China.
China and india also hate each other and directly compete for water resources from the Himalayas. Hell they have soldiers that fight each other up there.
Looking at the Indian Sub-Continent as a whole, it appears to contain a perfect storm of chaos factors.
- Severe and increasing danger of Black Flag weather every year. Pre-Monsoon heating.
- Mass exposure to Black Swan weather. Prone to post-monsoon flooding.
- 1.8b people growing at 20m/year. Maybe 2.5b by 2050.
- Nowhere to go since the land routes are hard, the sea routes difficult & long. Making any mass emigration very unlikely.
- Major pollution problems in all the main cities.
That's quite a pressure cooker.
Hate to tell you but South Asia has already reached 2b. India+Pakistan+Bangla Desh+Sri Lanka is almost there even without the others.
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/southern-asia-population/
That's a very good point, pretty much the only option is to emigrate north, and both China and Pakistan strike me as the sort of countries where shooting refugees on borders isnt outside the bounds of possibility.
10k -> 100k of middle class will get out, same again in boats. But for 100m to migrate it will be on foot. The Northern passes are heavily defended. NE is impossible. Myanmar is heavily defended. Pakistan-Afghanistan and Pakistan-Iran are war zones. All of that makes simply walking out of the N India plains is just not possible at scale.
Don’t look up China’s drought issues right now. Part of the country under water, the other part with cracked earth and dead crops.
Sounds familiar, happened to Canada last year, Korea a few years before, and Japan before that, and plenty more. Wonder how long we can keep this up. Lots of folks to feed.
The US grand strategy is outlasting the other nuclear powers until they blow each other up.
They don't need to fix anything or change their behaviour.
They are still the strongest militarily and most ecologically robust country. Let everyone else die, then capitalize in the aftermath. Just like WW2.
Submission statement: scores of millions of tons of staple grains and crops are grown in these areas. Mass crop failure is a real risk here: ~42 degrees C is about the limit before plants start to lose cellular stability and begin dying. This breadbasket feeds not just India's 1.4 billion, but exports to 120 other countries as well. What happens if this continues?
Guaranteed it is. Food can't stand that kind of heat without some damage sustained. Food costs will soar, and be a poorer quality. Revolutionary act: grow as much of your own as you can. In pots, bags, boxes, tubs if you don't have any land to use. Grow as much as you can, and share. 🌱
Edit to add, save your seeds!
Globalization of food production is just a natural extension of industrialized food production which was also a mistake. When the entire universe exists on a spreadsheet, we are vulnerable to making lots of mistakes. The corporate world tries to shape nature to their model in spite of the fact that they don't even come close to understanding all the variables that are in play.
Which reminds me, Earth has a Doomsday Vault of seeds in permafrost to preserve the planet's flora.
Unfortunately, the permafrost had melted and flooded the vault a while ago. They didn't think something "permanent" isn't permanent after all.
The problem with that is Russia kind of has a manpower issue at the moment because they are turning all their farm raised men into Ukrainian fertilizer. I wouldn't count on them being available to cover the shortfall.
Thats true, maybe they should let indians migrate to their farms and build new ones in siberia and so on? Could maybe be a win win for India and Russia.
Many people think that we can just fill the gap by moving agriculture further north are not taking into consideration of winter daylight. Even if Siber become a temperate climate that allows year-long crop production like India, plants can't grow without sunlights, especially plants that require full sun, meaning over 8 hours. Shorter days during winter combined with hellish heat and higher risk of forest fires during summer will not fill the gap. Northern climate aren't as humid as those near the equator so chances of forest fires during a drought is much greater.
Even if winters in the arctic are becoming warmer, that is not synonymous with them becoming temperate - our winters will still be far from even harsh growing conditions, and there's no chance for year long crop production. This far north we have one harvest, and cutting grass for animal feed has traditionally been possible twice a year - though in the last decade I've known farmers who managed to cut grass thrice in some years.
What we are seeing in winter here in Norway is that we get less stable weather with temperatures alternating between freezing and just above freezing, which is worse for plants than steady temperatures below freezing. Rather than a reliable layer of snow, which insulates the ground, the cycles of melting and freezing results in a thick layer of ice at the bottom, which can harm plants with so-called frost burn and hinders many animals (e.g. reindeer) from accessing food sources buried beneath the snow.
And temperature isn't the only issue. There's also the matter of soil, which plenty of people appear to be oblivious of, but this far north soil is a big political issue since only 3 % of Norway is arable. It's not like the arctic tundra that stretches from northern Scandinavia through Siberia and until the far East of Russia is well suited for regular agriculture, even with slightly warmer weather. Turning it into viable farmland (I believe the Russians have tried) would likely be a generational undertaking, if it is at all possible. All land isn't farmland, and there are reasons why the agricultural civilisations developed alongside riverbanks where millennia of flooding cycles have provided for rich and fertile soil.
It's however a great area for nomadic ways of life, where humans can move along with nature, and not much else. Which is why the tundra is one of few areas where nomadic cultures have continued until modern times.
As someone living at 53°N, double harvest are more than possible, so the scale of siberia alone will produce more wheat, rye and corn, to feed 1 billion indians. You dont need 90° equator sun, 40° sun and way longer days are good enough and some cultures prefer those conditions..
Random frost will kill most crops in the winter. Even if it's warm enough, night time will be too cold. If it's not cold then it will be dry. Regions like Siberia relies on snow packs to constantly feed natural reservoirs unlike near the equators where it constantly rain during a rainy season. There's a reason why Siberia have the largest fires in the world. Winter will still be harsh for crops. Plants produce less flowers when there are less sunlight, slowing production.
Random frost won't just kill crops but also pollinators. If they wake up too early in the winter, it's a certain death. Fruit trees will definitely be destroyed. One frost in late May last year destroyed 99% of all peaches in Georgia.
When it rains during raining tiome in equator, how can the crops grow there well?? Clouds blocks nearly all of the sunrays, so it will slow down the growth+ the extremely short days in the tropics, meanwhile you have 18+ sunshine days in Siberia.
And the tropics are also not the topic, the topic are the subtropics of northern india which are also feeded by the glaciers. The thing is, the climate change will never be so harsh, to deplete all siberian glaciers, so it will infact only lusher due more growing season, i dont see a desert there. And the lesser cloudiness due summer make this region better suited, because a sun without clouds is stronger, even if the angle is lower.
Right? I feel like people are just kind of skimming over the two options (really one realistic option). We can either stop emitting, which means no more tractors/silos/combines, which means no more industrial scale agriculture, which means famine. Alternatively, we continue to emit, and attempt to farm normally, and get the sharp end of the climate instability stick: drought, hail, tornados, hurricanes, and dry aquifers.
You're right though, if we don't run into some "random" calamity first (nuclear war, Thwaits, Amoc shutdown, etc), collapse will be due to famine. There is just no way through this, without running into inevitable famine.
I'm all for trying our best and am willing to accept drastic lifestyle changes that climate fix optimists I wager are not (ending most meat farming and ending non local tourism and non essential air travel, etc )
I think though we are literally just an algae bloom. Life has a basic imperative reproduce and expand exploiting whatever available energy there is and avoiding predation. Once the energy is used up or the environment is rendered less habitable there is a mass die off.
In theory our new rational brains and even newer cultural invention of science could allow us to self regulate, but I just don't think they can compete with our fundamental cellular level expansion urges.
I hate it, because famine doesn't actually fix anything. It'll hit poorer countries in Africa and Asia the most. It won't prevent Business as Usual everywhere else.
There’s ways around this with solar panels greenhouses and heat pumps. Now realistically this can’t feed 8 billion people maybe 500 million before we strain the copper/(other rare elements needed for this) supply. But people will survive it just probably won’t be us peasants.
There is a reason the Ministry For The Future starts in India. India has a huge population, hot humid weather, and insufficient air conditioning. It will become uninhabitable - it is just a matter of time.
Hundreds of millions of climate refugees... It's almost unimaginable. The sheer number of people. I haven't read MftF yet. I should, but I get anticipatory dread.
Even more dreadful - India, China, and Pakistan are all dependent on the melting Himalayan glaciers for water and all three also have nukes.
Edit: Where will the hundreds of millions of clim refugees go? It takes $ to move, but most Indians are poor. Pakistan and China aren’t going to be any better off. I suspect they won’t become climate refugees, but instead they will become climate deaths.
Yes, it would eventually be folks on foot. It would start with the wealthy getting travel visas and bailing. There are a number of cross-border railway lines as well. Then folks with cars, motorbikes, and pack animals bail, but eventually the gas runs out and the animals starve. Then it's folks on foot for a few weeks. Then it would be folks on the ground. It's really morbid to think about. There would be waves of this. Folks with boats would fare a little better if they got out early. If late, the boats would be overloaded and refused port and have all the itinerant problems of capsizing in choppy water or sinking from overload. Lots of fighting and looting along the way. Waves and waves and waves of this. Horrible. It's coming.
Indian millionaires are looking to 'get out of dodge': [4,300 millionaires may leave India this year. Here's where they are moving to - The Economic Times (indiatimes.com)](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/nri/migrate/4300-millionaires-may-leave-india-this-year-heres-where-they-are-moving-to/articleshow/111109899.cms?from=mdr)
No one was willing to do anything while it was a relatively easy problem. What do you think is going to happen when people start dying in large numbers?
Ever more people will suffer and die. The rich who can will ensconce themselves, eventually taking military action to protect the lands that they need to sustain themselves and their families (empowered by increasingly autonomous and increasingly intelligent systems).
It matters to the people who will die but could have lived.
Climate change is already here, IT is unavoidable, but mass deaths of climate migrants because the rich fled first and took all the resources that could have saved others ARE still avoidable. How many will live and how many will still die is very much not a fixed point in history yet.
We cannot say these deaths are unavoidable. At minimum, some of them are entirely avoidable and others might be avoidable with quick action.
How can you say that these deaths are avoidable. We already need a planet and a half to support our current population. There is no new technology or undiscovered technique that will save the world's population at current levels. The only resources that the rich can take with them is their money. And money will be worthless when there is no food. We are still operating under the delusion that money can solve all problems. It can't.
Where will you be going on foot without any food or water? Waves and waves of people will barely make it to the next city where they'll find the same problems.
Depends on the heat and whether they have hand carts or packs... and whether anything is in those packs. If there's nothing in the packs--not going very far. Extreme heat in wet-bulb conditions--not going very far. Survivable heat and something in the packs--other folks will relieve you of those packs. Awful.
At some point, it may be too hot for airplanes to take off (warmer air allows for less lift). So even the richest may not escape if it is a sudden event.
You're assuming that Siberia becomes inhabitable. Which I just don't see happening. Yes, the permafrost will melt - and turn into a giant swamp. The ground is/will not be hard enough to support buildings. The ground is not suitable for farming. Millions, billions of people are not going to just move up there, and be fine.
It’s not like warm climate swamp. I’ve never been to Siberia but I’m their neighbor in Alaska. Going off trail here is surprisingly horrific. At first glance it seems like it’ll be fine, but 4 steps in you realize your mistake. The hearty plants that do well in our climates aren’t particularly friendly. The land is “soft” and full of pokey and gnarled things. Lots of steep land, too. Lots of *huge*, wildly changing, silty river plains. Most people who hunt spend hours getting a few miles through the thicket, and that’s with gas powered chain saws and 4 wheelers / argos just absolutely destroying / brute forcing their way through. Every year they must wage a new path, because nature fights back immediately. People who live off grid here often can only get in/out by boat or plane - because making a road is that unfeasible in most cases.
In short: there is a reason this space is barely populated even now, at the height of human capability and luxury - it’s literally not worth all the CAT equipment in the world even now, in the global housing crisis with money to be made.
In a collapse scenario? Lol. You have to see it to know how seriously not worth the caloric expense it’d be.
Seriously. Look at the conditions people live in right now in Kolkata, Mumbai, Delhi, Karachi, Lahore, Caracas, Buenos Aires, Mexico City, Cairo, Lagos, Nairobi, Kinshasa, Manila, the list goes on and on.
People are migrating today without money so we can assume they'll keep doing that. A lot of people die migrating without money so even more people will die in the future.
Really just need to read the first chapter or two for a good sense of its on-point cli-fi and then disregard the hopium of the remainder of the novel which is hopeful but utterly unrealistic in both my opinion and that of others I have read in this sub.
It is hopium, but it is genuinely worth finishing. The explainer in between chapters that just talk about the science or economics and such are all good. It is hopium, but it’s engaging all the way to the end.
Yeah, even very early on it was like, "India banded together and ousted their ruling party and now have a bunch of farming communes and did the aerosol-spraying thing" and I was like "In a country of 1.4 billion who put Modi in office? I think not." Maybe I'm just too cynical...I would like to believe in humanity, honestly...
And just think, people from Bangladesh will be trying to get IN to India.
Anyway, I shifted my food growing routine because I was sick of heatwaves killing my crops. I am talking about 3 day heatwaves causing me to alter my entire annual routine. What's happening in India is insane.
Also, I have a friend who works in international development and went to Pakistan to assist with this same problem. Came back shaking head, shit's fkd they said.
The first rounds of mass dying are less likely to be as dramatic or noticeable. It'll be bread-basket failures driving the price of commodities to new heights. Lots of poor people around the world will no longer be able to afford their next meal and people will begin dying due to malnutrition enabled causes or straight up famine.
>India has a huge population, hot humid weather
India is a huge diverse country with large portions in composite, cold, hot and dry, OR hot humid climate. Please don't extrapolate prejudice on a whole subcontinent
When I first found this sub, I fell in love because, almost always, the top comments would be well-educated, highly articulate and principled people of diverse backgrounds having long, interesting discussions relevant to the topic, often with linked sources. The posts were only the tips of the icebergs, one could learn so much more from reading the comments.
Now we just have midwits from the front page subs using ‘classic reddit comment’ templates and referencing the same works of fiction over and over and over again as if it’s witty, original and insightful. And any resistance or divergence is downvoted. The fatal wave of infiltration came in 2022, the sub has collapsed, it’s now a shambling zombie shell of its former glory.
Remember, Collapse is not fair. Those with wealth will be buffered and can buy extended period of comfort as everyone else suffers and dies.
Indoor farming, advanced tech, security, AC, healthcare, media & entertainment... things that future humanity would need to survive in a terraformed Earth will all move into an Elysium-like place for those with money.
Those people would "enjoy the show" as things crumble around them. They'll have the last laugh and would have the freedom to choose, the options, as to how they'll "go".
This is how it will be. This is how it almost is right now. Please wait for the ending. It's an appropriate punch in the gut. What you wrote reminded me of it:
PS. It's a music video only lasting about 2 minutes, but the ending takes your breath away.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5OAYMMod9Wo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5OAYMMod9Wo)
Anyone have any idea how these crops are not already failing? I'm seeing some sparse news articles mentioning a 5% dip in production here and there, but it seems to me like much larger failures are imminent.
I'm pretty certain it's going to snowball fast, once it makes mainstream headlines it will be far, far too late and the problem will accelerate to unimaginable degrees
How is it not too late already? What imaginable intervention could begin today that would be in time? I mean, I guess there's time for a massive food relief mission, or something like that. But I think the lesson the world will take is that food security is perilous for everyone, so it's better to hoard stockpiles and fortify borders.
Sure, I only mean there's theoretical time left, obviously we are just going to run down the clock until we do indeed have to hoard stockpiles and fortify borders.
If you've got the irrigation available, you can keep crops going in some truly hellish conditions. See alfafa farms in the arizona desert for reference.
They will report it when harvest season comes. We had a similar heat wave + drougth in argentina in 2023 and we lost 50% of all soybeans crops and 35% average of all crops (wheat, corn, sorghum, barley, rice and rye). You can expect similar numbers if they plant similar crops.
For wheat the harvest season is in May. Other grains and rice at different times. They can bolster each other that way by restricting exports when one season is going sideways.
They probably aren't considered failed until it's time to harvest. They will be failed in September when there's no yield. I'm sure all the farmers are well aware there won't be.
India's already put restrictions on rice export. [https://www.ifpri.org/blog/indias-export-restrictions-rice-continue-disrupt-global-markets-supplies-and-prices/](https://www.ifpri.org/blog/indias-export-restrictions-rice-continue-disrupt-global-markets-supplies-and-prices/)
We are farming the entire globe and global supply-chains iron out regional problems. The results are someone on CNN telling us that "wheat prices have reached unprecedented levels" or some such.
Seems like the monsoon has just recently hit India and so it has cooled down quite a bit. And I think most folks aren’t growing much in April/May/June anyway (Indian Summer). Certain crops get planted along with the monsoon rains. Like rice for example. Only wealthy farmers with expensive bore wells grow rice in the dry months.
India is THE country to watch: Overpopulated, poor, all neighbors hostile or not in a better place. I don't see how this ends well. Even if Europe gets hit badly, there's still the EU and some level of cooperation that isn't really found elsewhere.
Europe only seems united because of Russia as a common enemy, do not scratch on the surface of migration or environmental/climate policies.
It's also a vassal of the US and turned hard neoliberal with healthcare, social security and education stripped of funds to fund war against russia instead.
It's going full fascist when the first climate refugees come in waves.
The first worlds wealth is predominantly built on exploiting poorer nations and that is becoming harder by the day.
Fascism is imperialism turned inwards.ut's the ultimate power of the financial capital over nations.
> Europe only seems united because of Russia as a common enemy
This is completely false and irrelevant, what does ruzzia has to do with climate change? is France sending help for fire to Greece because of ruzzia? This is not /r/UkraineWarVideoReport but r/collapse. Ruzzia is accelerating Europe on the military side of things but it's off-topic.
WUT? France did not send actual help to greece, Cyprus (ahem) and Sweden did, the rest of Europe couldn't give less of a fuck..... You made it about #ukraine, Europe's most corrupt and GDP lowest country, hence noone is actually considering it to be EU, let alone NATO, dunno why Russia considered the NATO carrot for Ukraine be genuine, clearly NATO considered it only a carrot for Russia to attack, and get Ukraine's fertile land into black rocks hands, a perfect deal for the us, ein win for the corporates,that's all that it was about. Selensky explicitly changed the law, that previously explicitly forbid to sell common /state owned land, if that's not obvious, I can't help.
Seriously? That's all you found as an argument? Countries doesn't fucking matter, France has sent help, I don't remember if it's for Greece or any other country in the EU, other countries also sent fire assistance. France has its own fire problem too anyway, so the amount of help that is sent can't be huge. That's not the point, genius. It's a fact EU countries do help each other and the EU has mechanisms to help, which doesn't exist in other part of the world.
I repeat, drop russia, that's off-topic. You are the one that came up with Russia, I'm the original commenter and you don't seem to want to read what I write.
20 years ago, when wildfires were less severe and rare, whole of Europe would)has had send help.
Now,we are more divided than ever and if anyone sends anything (unlikely, because neoliberal policies decided all money for corporate socialism) it's for PR only, the European countries barely give a shit about each other nowadays, it's just play pretend.
It's different for the actual people,but we are talking about governments here.
Maybe but this article from 2 weeks ago predicts a great wheat harvest in India this year.
https://www.world-grain.com/articles/20080-bumper-wheat-crop-expected-in-india
Many wheat (and rice) exports are being halted there right now, so... We'll see how it goes after the monsoon season. Wheat is sewn Oct to Dec and harvested in May. They might be holding back wheat exports to make up for the current failures of rice, millet, etc. Whatever the case, they wouldn't be cancelling rice and wheat exports if things were going great.
I agree but it is hard to know from the news. Global grain stores have been falling for years and we are just one really bad year in two or more major producing nations from famine in the poorer and less agriculturally productive parts of the world. At least that is my worry.
It's looking like it. I've been collapse aware for more than a decade but we're transitioning now into a period where the gravity of the situation is hitting mainstream media and social media daily. Just dire, dire, news hitting everywhere. It's already normalized. The apathy is amazing.
It actually started last year as that's when India banned export of certain rice due to low yields. Remember that it's not going to be fine one day and everything destroyed the next. It will be a slow rise in misery until a tipping point is reached where the misery boils over.
I tell people it's just going to be inflation and increasing privitization. Very simple. Eventually, you won't be able to afford much of the food on the store shelves, or basic services like hospitals and water and garbage collection. It'll all still be there, but fewer and fewer people will be able to use it, and will pay higher and higher prices for it. Supply and demand will be maintained because there will be ten wedges of cheese and ten bottles of soda left, each one bought by a millionaire. Everyone else has moldy bread and dirty water.
Permaculture. STARTING IN TIME to grow diverse plants, build swales (water catchment ditches) and planting so many different trees and bushes that microclimate can be better controlled. Digging ponds, taking care that trees create shade, etc. etc.
Also earthships can be a option, especially in warmer climates and desert like conditions.
r/Permaculture is a very active community, whereas r/earthships hardly has anything going on at the moment.
And of course visiting r/preppers might be a good idea...
This will exacerbate the Kashmir tensions, as one of the precious few regions within India and Pakistan that has both reliable water and moderate temperatures.
[And so the Indian farmers' suicide rate continue to rise and rise. ](https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/agriculture/one-farmer-farm-labourer-dies-by-suicide-every-hour-in-india-ncrb-data-93184)
seems like maybe this should be news. maybe worth equal coverage to a small regional conflict involving a fraction of a percentage of humans compared to this.
At the start of the pandemic twitter was THE place for breaking developments and getting folks' analysis of all the preprints that came pouring out (from actual scientists). It's less useful now because Musk destroyed the features that let you get info in real time--Fire Twitter (for forest and brush fires) was a thing, for example. Musk destroyed that, too. I still use it for OSINT chatter and to follow expert opinions on Ukraine war developments, etc. It's a decent place for the unfolding H5N1 debacle--the scientists following it closely will tell you about the clades and changes much faster than the MSM. So the answer is: it's an information tool that gets info to you much faster than the news, but you have to follow actual experts in the field if you want that info to be correct/decent.
Peter Dynes, the OP of the twitter post, if one of few people on the planet [trying to mitigate global warming.](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0kly57gl54o)
The following submission statement was provided by /u/Cosmicpixie: --- Submission statement: scores of millions of tons of staple grains and crops are grown in these areas. Mass crop failure is a real risk here: ~42 degrees C is about the limit before plants start to lose cellular stability and begin dying. This breadbasket feeds not just India's 1.4 billion, but exports to 120 other countries as well. What happens if this continues? --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1dkd7rg/agriculture_at_risk_as_vast_swathe_of_india/l9gvx68/
A region where 3 countries with nukes directly border each other? Check! Extremely vulnerable to climate change? Check! All 3 countries have tense border disputes? Check! One of those 3 countries is politically unstable on a good day? Triple check! What could go wrong?
You're right Mr. President! I think we \*can\* nuke climate change and bring these temperatures down.
who knew nuclear winter would solve all problems. That’s how we stop worrying and love the bomb. Thank you for this wonderful news!
Patrolling in India almost makes you wish for a nuclear winter
Why did I read this in Professor Farnsworth's voice?
Good news, everyone!
Niche Dr. Strangelove reference. 👏🏼
Roger that, we will nuke the sun.
Want to point out that China’s agriculture is also at risk right now, particularly in this province which produces a quarter of China’s wheat. Severe drought across 63% of arable land in Henan.
That sounds bad, but how wheat-based is China's agriculture sector in general?
China is the world's largest producer and consumer of wheat, although the country produces 1.5 times more rice. The problem also lies in that the provinces currently under drought (Shandong & Henan) are supposed to be some of the most agriculturally productive provinces.
Someone is going to take this as a how-to guide for climate change eventually: https://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/IndiaPakistanBullAtomSci.pdf
Yep. India and Pakistan are already enemies. BRICS worries me. China, India, and Russia all on the same side against the west sounds like WW3.
WW3 is already in progress. America and NATO are fighting Russia, China, Iran and North Korea via proxy wars in Ukraine and Gaza, Syria, Sudan and more. Check out this neat little list: [List of proxy wars - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_proxy_wars#Ongoing_proxy_wars) And this is just the stuff you can see and are being told about. WW3 has both hot and cold components. I am certain there is all manner of action happening in the covert, clandestine and cyber war spaces. It's all downhill from here. Don't need to worry about climate change for now, the emissions from the ever-expanding wars will dim the climate into submission, I am sure!
I wouldn't worry about China and India, they're more likely to fight each other considering they're not exactly friends and they have an increasingly ugly border dispute.
BRICS is really little more than an acroynym and hype.
All it takes is hype to bypass Western sanctions and disrupt global shipping? Who knew
Nah, standard greed is fine. Especially when it's a large country and an exporter of commodities.
Good news is most of those countries don't really like each other at all. Hell china is looking like its preparing to colonize Russia when it's war in Ukraine just completely depletes it's military. My guess is only putin being alive is keeping Russia together right now. Once Russia loses it's dictator it'll fall into chaos and China will "modestly assume peacekeeping duties in the region for the UN" of course in reality it'll effectively enslave local Russians for resource production that will be sent back to China. China and india also hate each other and directly compete for water resources from the Himalayas. Hell they have soldiers that fight each other up there.
Honestly, China taking back the land that Russia took from them in the 1800s would be pretty funny karma in a way.
thanks!
Looking at the Indian Sub-Continent as a whole, it appears to contain a perfect storm of chaos factors. - Severe and increasing danger of Black Flag weather every year. Pre-Monsoon heating. - Mass exposure to Black Swan weather. Prone to post-monsoon flooding. - 1.8b people growing at 20m/year. Maybe 2.5b by 2050. - Nowhere to go since the land routes are hard, the sea routes difficult & long. Making any mass emigration very unlikely. - Major pollution problems in all the main cities. That's quite a pressure cooker.
Point three on the population, likely will never hit 2b. The other items will hit hard long before 2050 and decrease the population significantly.
Hate to tell you but South Asia has already reached 2b. India+Pakistan+Bangla Desh+Sri Lanka is almost there even without the others. https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/southern-asia-population/
That's a very good point, pretty much the only option is to emigrate north, and both China and Pakistan strike me as the sort of countries where shooting refugees on borders isnt outside the bounds of possibility.
10k -> 100k of middle class will get out, same again in boats. But for 100m to migrate it will be on foot. The Northern passes are heavily defended. NE is impossible. Myanmar is heavily defended. Pakistan-Afghanistan and Pakistan-Iran are war zones. All of that makes simply walking out of the N India plains is just not possible at scale.
1.4 billion
1.4 billion
1.4 billion
Don’t look up China’s drought issues right now. Part of the country under water, the other part with cracked earth and dead crops. Sounds familiar, happened to Canada last year, Korea a few years before, and Japan before that, and plenty more. Wonder how long we can keep this up. Lots of folks to feed.
The US grand strategy is outlasting the other nuclear powers until they blow each other up. They don't need to fix anything or change their behaviour. They are still the strongest militarily and most ecologically robust country. Let everyone else die, then capitalize in the aftermath. Just like WW2.
Ah yes! King of the Mad Max wastelands! I am SURE that is America's plan! /s
Submission statement: scores of millions of tons of staple grains and crops are grown in these areas. Mass crop failure is a real risk here: ~42 degrees C is about the limit before plants start to lose cellular stability and begin dying. This breadbasket feeds not just India's 1.4 billion, but exports to 120 other countries as well. What happens if this continues?
Guaranteed it is. Food can't stand that kind of heat without some damage sustained. Food costs will soar, and be a poorer quality. Revolutionary act: grow as much of your own as you can. In pots, bags, boxes, tubs if you don't have any land to use. Grow as much as you can, and share. 🌱 Edit to add, save your seeds!
I feel like food systems should be localized and community dependent. This globalized bs was a mistake.
Yes, that's the best. Community is resilience.
Globalization of food production is just a natural extension of industrialized food production which was also a mistake. When the entire universe exists on a spreadsheet, we are vulnerable to making lots of mistakes. The corporate world tries to shape nature to their model in spite of the fact that they don't even come close to understanding all the variables that are in play.
Save your seed - we may need to repopulation post WW3.
Which reminds me, Earth has a Doomsday Vault of seeds in permafrost to preserve the planet's flora. Unfortunately, the permafrost had melted and flooded the vault a while ago. They didn't think something "permanent" isn't permanent after all.
Fuck that. If you want to raise your children in the post-apocalypse be my guest.
Russia has to fill the gap.
The problem with that is Russia kind of has a manpower issue at the moment because they are turning all their farm raised men into Ukrainian fertilizer. I wouldn't count on them being available to cover the shortfall.
Siberian soil quality is a slightly less fixable problem.
Thats true, maybe they should let indians migrate to their farms and build new ones in siberia and so on? Could maybe be a win win for India and Russia.
Many people think that we can just fill the gap by moving agriculture further north are not taking into consideration of winter daylight. Even if Siber become a temperate climate that allows year-long crop production like India, plants can't grow without sunlights, especially plants that require full sun, meaning over 8 hours. Shorter days during winter combined with hellish heat and higher risk of forest fires during summer will not fill the gap. Northern climate aren't as humid as those near the equator so chances of forest fires during a drought is much greater.
Even if winters in the arctic are becoming warmer, that is not synonymous with them becoming temperate - our winters will still be far from even harsh growing conditions, and there's no chance for year long crop production. This far north we have one harvest, and cutting grass for animal feed has traditionally been possible twice a year - though in the last decade I've known farmers who managed to cut grass thrice in some years. What we are seeing in winter here in Norway is that we get less stable weather with temperatures alternating between freezing and just above freezing, which is worse for plants than steady temperatures below freezing. Rather than a reliable layer of snow, which insulates the ground, the cycles of melting and freezing results in a thick layer of ice at the bottom, which can harm plants with so-called frost burn and hinders many animals (e.g. reindeer) from accessing food sources buried beneath the snow. And temperature isn't the only issue. There's also the matter of soil, which plenty of people appear to be oblivious of, but this far north soil is a big political issue since only 3 % of Norway is arable. It's not like the arctic tundra that stretches from northern Scandinavia through Siberia and until the far East of Russia is well suited for regular agriculture, even with slightly warmer weather. Turning it into viable farmland (I believe the Russians have tried) would likely be a generational undertaking, if it is at all possible. All land isn't farmland, and there are reasons why the agricultural civilisations developed alongside riverbanks where millennia of flooding cycles have provided for rich and fertile soil. It's however a great area for nomadic ways of life, where humans can move along with nature, and not much else. Which is why the tundra is one of few areas where nomadic cultures have continued until modern times.
As someone living at 53°N, double harvest are more than possible, so the scale of siberia alone will produce more wheat, rye and corn, to feed 1 billion indians. You dont need 90° equator sun, 40° sun and way longer days are good enough and some cultures prefer those conditions..
Random frost will kill most crops in the winter. Even if it's warm enough, night time will be too cold. If it's not cold then it will be dry. Regions like Siberia relies on snow packs to constantly feed natural reservoirs unlike near the equators where it constantly rain during a rainy season. There's a reason why Siberia have the largest fires in the world. Winter will still be harsh for crops. Plants produce less flowers when there are less sunlight, slowing production. Random frost won't just kill crops but also pollinators. If they wake up too early in the winter, it's a certain death. Fruit trees will definitely be destroyed. One frost in late May last year destroyed 99% of all peaches in Georgia.
When it rains during raining tiome in equator, how can the crops grow there well?? Clouds blocks nearly all of the sunrays, so it will slow down the growth+ the extremely short days in the tropics, meanwhile you have 18+ sunshine days in Siberia. And the tropics are also not the topic, the topic are the subtropics of northern india which are also feeded by the glaciers. The thing is, the climate change will never be so harsh, to deplete all siberian glaciers, so it will infact only lusher due more growing season, i dont see a desert there. And the lesser cloudiness due summer make this region better suited, because a sun without clouds is stronger, even if the angle is lower.
Indians aren't that dumb to become the new minorities sent to be Ukrainian fertilizer instead of the minorities already filling that role.
The smart ones are becoming fertilizer while we're witnessing this shitshow.
You don’t have the luxury to be smart when you are desperate, fighting for survival
Listen, when the better option is being a minority in China, you know Russia is bad
Russia can't. There's a lot more than temperature that's needed to make a bread-basket.
The collapse will be due to famine. There are no work around to food production at scale in an unstable climate.
Right? I feel like people are just kind of skimming over the two options (really one realistic option). We can either stop emitting, which means no more tractors/silos/combines, which means no more industrial scale agriculture, which means famine. Alternatively, we continue to emit, and attempt to farm normally, and get the sharp end of the climate instability stick: drought, hail, tornados, hurricanes, and dry aquifers. You're right though, if we don't run into some "random" calamity first (nuclear war, Thwaits, Amoc shutdown, etc), collapse will be due to famine. There is just no way through this, without running into inevitable famine.
I'm all for trying our best and am willing to accept drastic lifestyle changes that climate fix optimists I wager are not (ending most meat farming and ending non local tourism and non essential air travel, etc ) I think though we are literally just an algae bloom. Life has a basic imperative reproduce and expand exploiting whatever available energy there is and avoiding predation. Once the energy is used up or the environment is rendered less habitable there is a mass die off. In theory our new rational brains and even newer cultural invention of science could allow us to self regulate, but I just don't think they can compete with our fundamental cellular level expansion urges.
Please reemind me, what air travel is essential? Asking for a friend whose planet is essential.
Diplomacy, medical, expertise with critical infrastructure, critical goods (organs, medicine, etc) There are a lot of examples.
Most countries are starting to self regulate birth rates by making children unaffordable for most people. Too little too late but it is *something*.
I hate it, because famine doesn't actually fix anything. It'll hit poorer countries in Africa and Asia the most. It won't prevent Business as Usual everywhere else.
What is Thwaits and Amoc shutdown??
There’s ways around this with solar panels greenhouses and heat pumps. Now realistically this can’t feed 8 billion people maybe 500 million before we strain the copper/(other rare elements needed for this) supply. But people will survive it just probably won’t be us peasants.
That won't be affordable/scale for billions unfortunately.
There is a reason the Ministry For The Future starts in India. India has a huge population, hot humid weather, and insufficient air conditioning. It will become uninhabitable - it is just a matter of time.
Hundreds of millions of climate refugees... It's almost unimaginable. The sheer number of people. I haven't read MftF yet. I should, but I get anticipatory dread.
Even more dreadful - India, China, and Pakistan are all dependent on the melting Himalayan glaciers for water and all three also have nukes. Edit: Where will the hundreds of millions of clim refugees go? It takes $ to move, but most Indians are poor. Pakistan and China aren’t going to be any better off. I suspect they won’t become climate refugees, but instead they will become climate deaths.
Yes, it would eventually be folks on foot. It would start with the wealthy getting travel visas and bailing. There are a number of cross-border railway lines as well. Then folks with cars, motorbikes, and pack animals bail, but eventually the gas runs out and the animals starve. Then it's folks on foot for a few weeks. Then it would be folks on the ground. It's really morbid to think about. There would be waves of this. Folks with boats would fare a little better if they got out early. If late, the boats would be overloaded and refused port and have all the itinerant problems of capsizing in choppy water or sinking from overload. Lots of fighting and looting along the way. Waves and waves and waves of this. Horrible. It's coming.
Yeah, the wealthy will escape, but the poor will die trying to escape. You’re right - horrible, but unavoidable.
Indian millionaires are looking to 'get out of dodge': [4,300 millionaires may leave India this year. Here's where they are moving to - The Economic Times (indiatimes.com)](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/nri/migrate/4300-millionaires-may-leave-india-this-year-heres-where-they-are-moving-to/articleshow/111109899.cms?from=mdr)
yeah but that's not for climate reasons, they're going to dubai
To call it unavoidable excuses inaction in the present.
No one was willing to do anything while it was a relatively easy problem. What do you think is going to happen when people start dying in large numbers?
Nothing
Ever more people will suffer and die. The rich who can will ensconce themselves, eventually taking military action to protect the lands that they need to sustain themselves and their families (empowered by increasingly autonomous and increasingly intelligent systems).
The politicians will take credit for increased job numbers because someone will have to bury them.
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It matters to the people who will die but could have lived. Climate change is already here, IT is unavoidable, but mass deaths of climate migrants because the rich fled first and took all the resources that could have saved others ARE still avoidable. How many will live and how many will still die is very much not a fixed point in history yet. We cannot say these deaths are unavoidable. At minimum, some of them are entirely avoidable and others might be avoidable with quick action.
How can you say that these deaths are avoidable. We already need a planet and a half to support our current population. There is no new technology or undiscovered technique that will save the world's population at current levels. The only resources that the rich can take with them is their money. And money will be worthless when there is no food. We are still operating under the delusion that money can solve all problems. It can't.
Where will you be going on foot without any food or water? Waves and waves of people will barely make it to the next city where they'll find the same problems.
Depends on the heat and whether they have hand carts or packs... and whether anything is in those packs. If there's nothing in the packs--not going very far. Extreme heat in wet-bulb conditions--not going very far. Survivable heat and something in the packs--other folks will relieve you of those packs. Awful.
At some point, it may be too hot for airplanes to take off (warmer air allows for less lift). So even the richest may not escape if it is a sudden event.
Blocking runways will also prevent their escape.
That's terrifying
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Siberia is so far from India. How will they afford to get there?
They will have to walk over the Himalayas without food, then across the Gobi desert without water.
You're assuming that Siberia becomes inhabitable. Which I just don't see happening. Yes, the permafrost will melt - and turn into a giant swamp. The ground is/will not be hard enough to support buildings. The ground is not suitable for farming. Millions, billions of people are not going to just move up there, and be fine.
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It’s not like warm climate swamp. I’ve never been to Siberia but I’m their neighbor in Alaska. Going off trail here is surprisingly horrific. At first glance it seems like it’ll be fine, but 4 steps in you realize your mistake. The hearty plants that do well in our climates aren’t particularly friendly. The land is “soft” and full of pokey and gnarled things. Lots of steep land, too. Lots of *huge*, wildly changing, silty river plains. Most people who hunt spend hours getting a few miles through the thicket, and that’s with gas powered chain saws and 4 wheelers / argos just absolutely destroying / brute forcing their way through. Every year they must wage a new path, because nature fights back immediately. People who live off grid here often can only get in/out by boat or plane - because making a road is that unfeasible in most cases. In short: there is a reason this space is barely populated even now, at the height of human capability and luxury - it’s literally not worth all the CAT equipment in the world even now, in the global housing crisis with money to be made. In a collapse scenario? Lol. You have to see it to know how seriously not worth the caloric expense it’d be.
Seriously. Look at the conditions people live in right now in Kolkata, Mumbai, Delhi, Karachi, Lahore, Caracas, Buenos Aires, Mexico City, Cairo, Lagos, Nairobi, Kinshasa, Manila, the list goes on and on.
Siberia is habitable for a few thousand people herding reindeer and foraging.
The few thousand who survive the trek might be able to survive.
You have to actually get there though.
Lol, do you think people will try to go to a place they can farm or a place they can steal what is already done?
People are migrating today without money so we can assume they'll keep doing that. A lot of people die migrating without money so even more people will die in the future.
Really just need to read the first chapter or two for a good sense of its on-point cli-fi and then disregard the hopium of the remainder of the novel which is hopeful but utterly unrealistic in both my opinion and that of others I have read in this sub.
It is hopium, but it is genuinely worth finishing. The explainer in between chapters that just talk about the science or economics and such are all good. It is hopium, but it’s engaging all the way to the end.
Yeah, even very early on it was like, "India banded together and ousted their ruling party and now have a bunch of farming communes and did the aerosol-spraying thing" and I was like "In a country of 1.4 billion who put Modi in office? I think not." Maybe I'm just too cynical...I would like to believe in humanity, honestly...
What book?
Ministry of the future
And just think, people from Bangladesh will be trying to get IN to India. Anyway, I shifted my food growing routine because I was sick of heatwaves killing my crops. I am talking about 3 day heatwaves causing me to alter my entire annual routine. What's happening in India is insane. Also, I have a friend who works in international development and went to Pakistan to assist with this same problem. Came back shaking head, shit's fkd they said.
I believe it.
The first chapter is the best part and it's free online. Just read that.
I got it on kindle and started it. The first chapter is good.
1 in 6 humans on earth live there…
It goes waaaaaay downhill after that opening India chapter everyone quotes. TMFTF is an overrated book imho.
what book?
The Ministry for the Future
I’ve never been able to finish it. The open chapter alone.
Do NOT let them into Canada 🍁
The folks who are lucky enough to afford airfare and passports are going to take "vacations" all over the world. Coming to a theater near you!
World belongs to all, we will come in numbers and there is squat you can do about it.
Well, there's war. I foresee an awful lot of war happening.
The first rounds of mass dying are less likely to be as dramatic or noticeable. It'll be bread-basket failures driving the price of commodities to new heights. Lots of poor people around the world will no longer be able to afford their next meal and people will begin dying due to malnutrition enabled causes or straight up famine.
>India has a huge population, hot humid weather India is a huge diverse country with large portions in composite, cold, hot and dry, OR hot humid climate. Please don't extrapolate prejudice on a whole subcontinent
When I first found this sub, I fell in love because, almost always, the top comments would be well-educated, highly articulate and principled people of diverse backgrounds having long, interesting discussions relevant to the topic, often with linked sources. The posts were only the tips of the icebergs, one could learn so much more from reading the comments. Now we just have midwits from the front page subs using ‘classic reddit comment’ templates and referencing the same works of fiction over and over and over again as if it’s witty, original and insightful. And any resistance or divergence is downvoted. The fatal wave of infiltration came in 2022, the sub has collapsed, it’s now a shambling zombie shell of its former glory.
Me standing in line at the bank with $3k for selling a car. Realizing no amount of money can buy lentils that never grow.
Remember, Collapse is not fair. Those with wealth will be buffered and can buy extended period of comfort as everyone else suffers and dies. Indoor farming, advanced tech, security, AC, healthcare, media & entertainment... things that future humanity would need to survive in a terraformed Earth will all move into an Elysium-like place for those with money. Those people would "enjoy the show" as things crumble around them. They'll have the last laugh and would have the freedom to choose, the options, as to how they'll "go".
This is how it will be. This is how it almost is right now. Please wait for the ending. It's an appropriate punch in the gut. What you wrote reminded me of it: PS. It's a music video only lasting about 2 minutes, but the ending takes your breath away. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5OAYMMod9Wo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5OAYMMod9Wo)
Anyone have any idea how these crops are not already failing? I'm seeing some sparse news articles mentioning a 5% dip in production here and there, but it seems to me like much larger failures are imminent.
I'm pretty certain it's going to snowball fast, once it makes mainstream headlines it will be far, far too late and the problem will accelerate to unimaginable degrees
How is it not too late already? What imaginable intervention could begin today that would be in time? I mean, I guess there's time for a massive food relief mission, or something like that. But I think the lesson the world will take is that food security is perilous for everyone, so it's better to hoard stockpiles and fortify borders.
Sure, I only mean there's theoretical time left, obviously we are just going to run down the clock until we do indeed have to hoard stockpiles and fortify borders.
Slowly, then all at once.
If you've got the irrigation available, you can keep crops going in some truly hellish conditions. See alfafa farms in the arizona desert for reference.
Aren't they reporting critical water shortages around Delhi right now?
Wells running dry all around the Phoenix outskirts too. Water is for businesses, not people after all.
I meant that the farm businesses are even seeing critical water shortages
Plus the seeds have been genetically modified the shit out of em
They will report it when harvest season comes. We had a similar heat wave + drougth in argentina in 2023 and we lost 50% of all soybeans crops and 35% average of all crops (wheat, corn, sorghum, barley, rice and rye). You can expect similar numbers if they plant similar crops.
When is their harvest season?
For wheat the harvest season is in May. Other grains and rice at different times. They can bolster each other that way by restricting exports when one season is going sideways.
They probably aren't considered failed until it's time to harvest. They will be failed in September when there's no yield. I'm sure all the farmers are well aware there won't be.
Absolutely.
India's already put restrictions on rice export. [https://www.ifpri.org/blog/indias-export-restrictions-rice-continue-disrupt-global-markets-supplies-and-prices/](https://www.ifpri.org/blog/indias-export-restrictions-rice-continue-disrupt-global-markets-supplies-and-prices/)
And wheat, too
We are farming the entire globe and global supply-chains iron out regional problems. The results are someone on CNN telling us that "wheat prices have reached unprecedented levels" or some such.
Seems like the monsoon has just recently hit India and so it has cooled down quite a bit. And I think most folks aren’t growing much in April/May/June anyway (Indian Summer). Certain crops get planted along with the monsoon rains. Like rice for example. Only wealthy farmers with expensive bore wells grow rice in the dry months.
I also read that India is building up vast grain storage for this very reason, which I suppose is good.
This summer is gonna pop off
India is THE country to watch: Overpopulated, poor, all neighbors hostile or not in a better place. I don't see how this ends well. Even if Europe gets hit badly, there's still the EU and some level of cooperation that isn't really found elsewhere.
Europe only seems united because of Russia as a common enemy, do not scratch on the surface of migration or environmental/climate policies. It's also a vassal of the US and turned hard neoliberal with healthcare, social security and education stripped of funds to fund war against russia instead. It's going full fascist when the first climate refugees come in waves. The first worlds wealth is predominantly built on exploiting poorer nations and that is becoming harder by the day. Fascism is imperialism turned inwards.ut's the ultimate power of the financial capital over nations.
> Europe only seems united because of Russia as a common enemy This is completely false and irrelevant, what does ruzzia has to do with climate change? is France sending help for fire to Greece because of ruzzia? This is not /r/UkraineWarVideoReport but r/collapse. Ruzzia is accelerating Europe on the military side of things but it's off-topic.
WUT? France did not send actual help to greece, Cyprus (ahem) and Sweden did, the rest of Europe couldn't give less of a fuck..... You made it about #ukraine, Europe's most corrupt and GDP lowest country, hence noone is actually considering it to be EU, let alone NATO, dunno why Russia considered the NATO carrot for Ukraine be genuine, clearly NATO considered it only a carrot for Russia to attack, and get Ukraine's fertile land into black rocks hands, a perfect deal for the us, ein win for the corporates,that's all that it was about. Selensky explicitly changed the law, that previously explicitly forbid to sell common /state owned land, if that's not obvious, I can't help.
Seriously? That's all you found as an argument? Countries doesn't fucking matter, France has sent help, I don't remember if it's for Greece or any other country in the EU, other countries also sent fire assistance. France has its own fire problem too anyway, so the amount of help that is sent can't be huge. That's not the point, genius. It's a fact EU countries do help each other and the EU has mechanisms to help, which doesn't exist in other part of the world. I repeat, drop russia, that's off-topic. You are the one that came up with Russia, I'm the original commenter and you don't seem to want to read what I write.
20 years ago, when wildfires were less severe and rare, whole of Europe would)has had send help. Now,we are more divided than ever and if anyone sends anything (unlikely, because neoliberal policies decided all money for corporate socialism) it's for PR only, the European countries barely give a shit about each other nowadays, it's just play pretend. It's different for the actual people,but we are talking about governments here.
Maybe but this article from 2 weeks ago predicts a great wheat harvest in India this year. https://www.world-grain.com/articles/20080-bumper-wheat-crop-expected-in-india
Many wheat (and rice) exports are being halted there right now, so... We'll see how it goes after the monsoon season. Wheat is sewn Oct to Dec and harvested in May. They might be holding back wheat exports to make up for the current failures of rice, millet, etc. Whatever the case, they wouldn't be cancelling rice and wheat exports if things were going great.
But I hope they do have a bumper crop this winter. As big and healthy a crop as possible.
I agree but it is hard to know from the news. Global grain stores have been falling for years and we are just one really bad year in two or more major producing nations from famine in the poorer and less agriculturally productive parts of the world. At least that is my worry.
My worst nightmare is global crop failure.
It seems like i read headlines like that every year but the agricultural output barely moves at the margins.
Because the agricultural area expands too, as well as fertilizer use growing. India stopped some exports of wheat and rice in 2022/23 already.
I wonder if this will be the year that shit really hits the fan worldwide.
It's looking like it. I've been collapse aware for more than a decade but we're transitioning now into a period where the gravity of the situation is hitting mainstream media and social media daily. Just dire, dire, news hitting everywhere. It's already normalized. The apathy is amazing.
Its titanic with the rich escaping on their boats carrying their luggage while the poor die.
It could, especially around the US presidential election, but if we make it past that I think this year may be our last "good" holiday season
Fuck man I thought this shit was like at least a year away
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I pegged 2030. But that is for the following revolts.
It's boiled frog. Worse and worse every year.
Yum!
It actually started last year as that's when India banned export of certain rice due to low yields. Remember that it's not going to be fine one day and everything destroyed the next. It will be a slow rise in misery until a tipping point is reached where the misery boils over.
I tell people it's just going to be inflation and increasing privitization. Very simple. Eventually, you won't be able to afford much of the food on the store shelves, or basic services like hospitals and water and garbage collection. It'll all still be there, but fewer and fewer people will be able to use it, and will pay higher and higher prices for it. Supply and demand will be maintained because there will be ten wedges of cheese and ten bottles of soda left, each one bought by a millionaire. Everyone else has moldy bread and dirty water.
Permaculture. STARTING IN TIME to grow diverse plants, build swales (water catchment ditches) and planting so many different trees and bushes that microclimate can be better controlled. Digging ponds, taking care that trees create shade, etc. etc. Also earthships can be a option, especially in warmer climates and desert like conditions. r/Permaculture is a very active community, whereas r/earthships hardly has anything going on at the moment. And of course visiting r/preppers might be a good idea...
This will exacerbate the Kashmir tensions, as one of the precious few regions within India and Pakistan that has both reliable water and moderate temperatures.
[And so the Indian farmers' suicide rate continue to rise and rise. ](https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/agriculture/one-farmer-farm-labourer-dies-by-suicide-every-hour-in-india-ncrb-data-93184)
seems like maybe this should be news. maybe worth equal coverage to a small regional conflict involving a fraction of a percentage of humans compared to this.
Narrator: no one was shocked
Time to nuke the Himalayas and vaporize that glacial ice /s
We need to start stratospheric geoengineering right now. Not saying that will necessarily work, but there's no other real option.
Good luck with it.
I agree.
Why the actual fuck do people keep linking twitter comments as a source? Nobody sane is making an account to read this shit.
At the start of the pandemic twitter was THE place for breaking developments and getting folks' analysis of all the preprints that came pouring out (from actual scientists). It's less useful now because Musk destroyed the features that let you get info in real time--Fire Twitter (for forest and brush fires) was a thing, for example. Musk destroyed that, too. I still use it for OSINT chatter and to follow expert opinions on Ukraine war developments, etc. It's a decent place for the unfolding H5N1 debacle--the scientists following it closely will tell you about the clades and changes much faster than the MSM. So the answer is: it's an information tool that gets info to you much faster than the news, but you have to follow actual experts in the field if you want that info to be correct/decent.
Peter Dynes, the OP of the twitter post, if one of few people on the planet [trying to mitigate global warming.](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0kly57gl54o)
coming to a province near you. This event brought to you by the fossil fuel industry " killing for money isn't illegal when you own the govenrments"
Time for a miracle of US bipartisan legislative cooperation as "immigration reform" is undertaken.