Yeah… this is … I don’t know. I have done a lot of work to get to the acceptance part of the grief I feel at the accelerating state of things …but this is a whole new level…
If it's any consolation, the sea temperature seems to have to start dipping now that [El Nino is weakening](https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/)
But it wont dip back below previous levels. It will still be, on average, higher than previous levels.
We're in a cumulative feed back system. With each step up greater than the fall back down.
Failing something catastrophic happening (yellowstone, meteor) that blankets the earth with ash and induces an ice age, we have pumped so much CO2 into the atmosphere that there is no turning back *even if we ceased producing ANY greenhouse gases from this very moment*. We are locked in to dramatic climate change.
We are entering interesting times.
I wonder if we could even stop it with CO2 recapture, completely stop producing CO2, and recapturing an amount of CO2. Thinking that even if we did that, it wouldn't solve anything, mitigate maybe, but not solve.
Stopping all carbon emissions would mean stopping the industrial farming, processing, packaging, distribution and storage of food that the current population of 8 billion humans relies upon for survival
We went from 1 billion to 8 billion in 200 years primarily because of fossil fuels
We're in a spot of bother, really
We would have to do that globally, stop cutting down forests, plant trees everywhere possible... The solution has been known for decades. It's just a very tall ask to get 8 billion people to agree on literally anything.
I live in n Texas. The summers have gotten so bad here we get cabin fever in the summer. We always got triple digit summers , but now pushing 110 and more. Can’t air condition our way out of this.
I still remember when it was unusual to get so many days in a row with highs above 100 degrees, back in the mid 90s in central Texas. Now that happens every summer.
Looking at charts regarding climate change the last few years makes me think we are moving from a linear growth to an exponential one. Not enough data points to confirm yet, but if we are... Nice meeting you all I guess.
We blew past prevention a long time ago. Now is the time for adaptation and restoration measures, degrowth, and throwing all the billionaires in prison.
Basically every year for the past decade, we’ve had the headline “Hottest year on record!!”.
But yes such a huge spike in a year is super-scary! That isn’t just “hotter” - it’s downright scalding!
It's going to be more of a slow burn; you won't need a bunker, your standard of life will just keep slowly dropping like it has been for many.
Well, unless we start WWIII over immigration or resources or whatever as the pressure mounts. Might need a bunker for that.
Not necessarily. 1 or 2 breadbasket failures will lead to some intense social unrest as people in developed countries begin to starve. The comically ironic thing is that the US strategic grain stockpile is essentially empty, with all of the actual food converted into a fund to *buy grain* in the event of a breadbasket failure. Like, who the fuck made this idiotic decision? How the fuck are you supposed to buy grain when the US, one of the largest grain producers on the planet, has a sweeping crop failure?
There need to be r/ terrifying data. Because that is the 1st thing come to mind when I saw this and there will be increase in this types of data in future.
I´d like to share a revelation that I´ve had during my time here. It came to me when I tried to classify your species, and I realized that you’re not actually mammals.
Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with the surrounding environment, but you humans do not. You move to an area and you multiply and multiply until every natural resource is consumed. The only way can survive is to spread to another area.
There is another organism on this planet that follows the same pattern. Do you know what it is? A virus.
Human beings are a disease, a cancer of this planet. You’re a plague and we… are the cure.
I read that in Hugo Weaving's voice. Love that guy ever since Priscilla. And his niece is awesome too. Check her out in Babylon where she plays the silent film alter ego of talkie Margot Robbie.
Sorry Agent Smith but mammals don't instinctively develop an equilibrium at all. Mother nature keeps their numbers in check. Plenty of examples of other species thriving and then running out of food. Humans have just been the best at working around mother nature. That will soon change tho.
Yep, we are measuring and collecting more detailed data than before this graph I think, but there are other concerning changes we’re already seeing.
The temperature itself may not be the biggest concern, it’s the changes that will result: like additional fresh water from melting ice screwing up the ocean currents that play a huge role. The mixing of the deeper ocean and upper ocean slowing down because of the salt level change, which may also be why these temperatures are rising.
Considering the number of insurance companies that denied to cover my home in Brooklyn... yes. And I'm not even flood zones, like 70 feet above sea level, no flood or evacuation zone, no history of flooding.
This can be slightly misleading as Hurricane Katrina, a Cat 5 in 2005 that's still one the most damaging hurricanes of all time, isn't recorded at all in the 2001-2011 row. Heck, 2005 alone had four Cat 5 systems.
As such, this isn't an exhaustive list of overall hurricane severity, as it only looks at cases where systems make landfall with the US. It overlooks how increasingly damaging hurricanes are in general and how much damage they've caused to the broader region.
Katrina didn't even have the strongest winds of any hurricane that year, Rita was stronger iirc. Its damage had more to do with the location of impact and water management than anything else
This data is misleading. There have been a ton of hurricanes that almost hit the US that were powerful. But because they didn't they don't count it. Sure there wasnt any damage but it doesnt show the rate of hurricanes forming over time.
Can I just be excited about watching the destabilization of a chaotic dynamic system. I've felt like an alien anthropologist for years already, spreading information about climate change. To some extent, what we've done is interesting, if not also terrible.
It's cynical, sure, but what can we realistically do? It's the industries and global emitters that are accelerating this crisis, no amount of single people busing or biking to work will change the global impact from the individual.
Hell, even if all of LA decided that they will never use cars again, it would still be a drop in the bucket compared to the steel mills and coal plants of the world.
It’s mainly a question of do you vote for people who will pass regulations to force those large polluters to rein in their emissions or do you vote for whack job climate denying right wing morons?
That’s the single biggest thing that individual people can do in order to counter the influence of the conspiracy theory conservative death cult and affect change.
"it would still be a drop in the bucket"
That's true, but we're going to need **a lot** of drops in the bucket to get this thing under control. We should all be doing whatever we can even if others aren't.
Here's something you can do immediately that will make an impact on climate change. Lower your meat intake. I'm not saying "stop eating meat," I'm just saying that we should all eat less meat...especially red meat. Starting next week, have a meatless Monday, switch your taco meat with beans, have a hearty chili with no meat. Reducing our meat intake is the future if we want to survive. You'll find that it's really easy and still tasty if you give it a shot.
People act like there's no demand side to this issue. Sure Exxon pollutes more than you or I could ever dream of, but who are Exxon's customers? The supply doesn't exist without the demand.
Everyone can help, if you have given up then it's a problem.
It's like when everyone sees an emergency happen but everyone expects other people to call it in. Everyone should call it in. Protest, write your politicians, talk about it.
Hank Green did a really neat explanation of why there is such a drastic jump: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dk8pwE3IByg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dk8pwE3IByg)
Bad TLDW: Sulfur Dioxide, which was previously used (and recently banned) in cargo ship fuel, was decent at seeding clouds which in turn reflected solar energy.
YES! Sanctions limiting emissions of barges are actually leading to the large spike in temperatures.
https://www.science.org/content/article/changing-clouds-unforeseen-test-geoengineering-fueling-record-ocean-warmth
In the age of the anthropocene, with our ditches, sewer systems, water treatment plants, greenhouses, field tiling, dams, locks, and weirs, to object to the idea of making it rain, is very rich.
Problem with geoengineering is that they are temporary solutions. Once you stop pumping huge sums of money into the program, the effect stops with a whiplash effect. It also delays actions to reduce GHG emission because people don't feel the effect of climate change so it doesn't feel necessary to change.
The latter is accelerationism. The worse the better. Obviously irresponsible.
The former is true - but we might actually need temporary solutions to keep things stable until the effect from the permanent solutions kicks in. Because there might be feedback loops if things get hot enough. Then the whole things goes off the rails. Heck, it's already looking like it's going off the rails.
Those minor problems aren't nearly as bad as doing nothing.
The house is on fire but we can't put the fire out because the match store still sells matches.
Does this mean it's affecting the measurement, and not actually causing a massive increase?
So like the previous years we're probably worse than we thought, but the dramatic jump in the last few years is not as dramatic?
No it's a real increase. The previous cloud cover caused by sulphur dioxide protected the oceans from some of the sun's energy, reflecting it back into space. Now though, all that energy will be directly warming the oceans.
The previous level was "artificially" low due to our unintended geoengineering. This new level reflects what the ocean temperatures would have been given our Co2 levels if we didn't have artificially high cloud cover.
Thousands of ships spewing toxic gas into the atmosphere which in addition to poisoning everything, also cools the earth: cost of doing business.
Intentionally putting a similar amount of nontoxic material in the air to replace the cooling effect: scary, “playing God”
Where did I say that? Upwelling (cold water coming to the surface) has already started in the EPAC. It’s overall still on the El Niño side but we will likely be in La Niña by the end of summer.
La Niña is cooler than average water in the eastern Pacific. El Niño has warmer than average. It cycles between these phases and a neutral phase on the timescale of a few years, and it has to do with the strength of the trade winds over that region of the Pacific. Rapid transitions from one to the other aren’t typical, but not that uncommon, and that’s forecast to happen this year. This cycle is called the “el nino southern oscillation” or ENSO.
This might be a little technical but the maps are helpful. You can see we’re under both an El Niño advisory and La Niña watch. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
[“Okay Manbearpig is real, but what can we gonna do about it now, huh? What are we gonna do that’s gonna make aaany difference now, Susan? What can we do that everyone else is also gonna do, come on Susan use your brain. Even if we do something about it what about the Chinese they’re just gonna…”](https://youtu.be/U5wM5pesggE?si=vNy2iLn7MuW5yUqB)
it's all over this thread. Not that it's the same people in this case, but the climate nihilistic doomerism (in younger people especially) really concerns me.
Yes, at this point it will be bad. Not all bad outcomes are equally bad, and that doesn't mean nothing can be done. Spreading the attitude that it's all futile is making the problem worse.
Totally agree. It’s too late true. But this is a bottomless pit. It will keep getting worse until we act. We should have started yesterday, but starting today will always be better than starting tomorrow.
Precisely! It's like they're gambling and doubling down. In a few thousand years, the scientists will be peeling those billionaire corpses from their bunkers.
Those who are whining about billionaire bunkers (i.e. "They're just going to lock themselves away and leave us all to die") don't pay much attention to history....Ceaușescu, Diem, Hitler. Trying to insulate yourself from the problem you had a bigger hand in causing than the rest of us never works out in the end. According those cashing in on building these bunkers, occupants can't even operate the smart appliances.
#
This should be leading every news show. We are well and truly fucked. We know how the oceans mitigate weather, they slowly warm in the summer and mitigate heat, and slowly cool in the winter to mitigate cold. And have been absorbing an estimated 90% of the global temperature change caused by human emissions.
Pretty sure everyone knows what happens when the pot boils.
I don't think they know for sure, but possibly new SO2 pollution standards for ships, which went into effect last year. Atmospheric SO2 reflects sunlight and reduces warming.
We're also on the El Nino portion of the ENSO cycle. And a large underwater volcano erupted which sent a large amount of water vapor into the atmosphere.
And, of course, there's also the relentless slow increases which has been happening for decades from burning fossil fuels.
If the SO2 standards are most of the reason, we should see a permanent one-time shift. Any rise from a volcanic eruption should dissipate relatively quickly. The ENSO cycle causes pretty large temperature swings for up to a year at a time, but probably not *this* large. We should see *some* reversion towards the mean when the ENSO cycle moves towards neutral, which is currently forecast to happen late this year.
There were papers written about the ocean absorbing the excess heat for the past 20 years but its reached a point where it can't absorb anymore at the lower depths so it's starting to equalise pushing more heat up and slowing down the gulf stream.
The general gist of the climate suddenly changing due to something toppling over is realistic. We have records of the climate suddenly changing in the past.
However the movie is too extreme. It wouldn't get that cold.
But there will be more and more failed harvests and natural disasters as the climate destabilizes.
Unfortunately it's more likely for the poorest countries to once again feel the brunt of damage. They are in regions that will heat faster and they have less robust infrastructure to deal with the changes...
But all regions on earth will suffer and the movie does make a valid point that there will be climate refugees and that we should be compassionate because it could just as well have been the other way around...
It's based on real science. The slowing of the gulf stream contributed heavily to the last ice age. And it's definatley showing signs of slowing again.
>It's based on real science
"Based on" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. Yes, it would be bad. It would not be "run down a hallway to escape the cold" bad.
Not sure what "bad enough" means, but [here's what the EPA says about SO2 pollution](https://www.epa.gov/so2-pollution/sulfur-dioxide-basics). It's pretty nasty stuff.
I've heard claims that the "pause" in global warming in the 1950s was caused by increased aerosol air pollution countering the greenhouse effect from CO2 emissions. When we cleaned up our aerosol emissions, the temperatures started going up.
It's one of the things people are studying. Of course you want to be extremely careful about something like this. There's a real risk of unintended consequences.
There are some theories its partially due to new pollution controls on shipping. They used to release a lot of chemicals which were bad, but had a cooling effect by sending clouds, masking some warming especially in the North Atlantic. Now that’s gone the feedback loop is kicking in
Wonder if there’s some hope in this fact that that another human activity was effectively reducing the temp. We may need to resort to additional Geo Engineering to offset or at least slow down the effects of the indirect engineering we do every day
The later stuff you said costs companies money, so they’ll likely be futile efforts with little to no effect. Y’all should be working on your cardio, looking at maps that predict forecasted effects of climate change, and try to move to places that are forecasted to be the least affected by the drastically changing environment. If the treatment of the already impoverished and displaced people of the current world are any inclination as to how the displaced people from climate change will be treated, it’s probably best that you start the climate wars in a region that is predicted to fair well through the crisis. Then again, nature has been showing us how stupidly conservative our models are, and how much we’ve underestimated this shit already, so maybe just work on the cardio.
If the theory is correct yes, unless we do some sort of geoengineering.
The silver lining is that while it would mean that this form of pollution has actually masked the true extent of carbon's effect on temperatures until now, it would also be evidence that cloud seeding is effective in cooling the planet. It may be possible to use less harmful chemicals to achieve the same effect.
This would be only a temporary solution of course. Long term the only solution is to go fully carbon neutral (or even carbon negative, if possible) as a society.
It’s because of sanctions on barges limiting their emissions as counter intuitive as that may seem. The ship tracks act as cloud cover reflecting a lot of the suns rays back
https://www.science.org/content/article/changing-clouds-unforeseen-test-geoengineering-fueling-record-ocean-warmth
Oceans release co2 in the atmosphere when they overheat so that tends to amplify the problem.
Its believed that small initial changes in temperature of the oceans are what triggers the end and starts of earth ice ages
Well living was okay I guess. Boiling to death wasn't how I wanted to go but I know some people who definitely deserve that when the time comes so at least there's a silver lining
Since you seem to have a good sense of humor about it, I'll share this song with you that really helped me laugh at the absurdity of it all. It's ostensibly about the atomic bomb, but it's applicability to all our existential problems is a pleasing (and grim) coincidence.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frAEmhqdLFs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frAEmhqdLFs)
Checking in from bangalore, India. Draught like conditions since last year and we have run out of water. Avg temperature is 2 degrees above normal for this time of the year. When it rains then there will be a flood. The end is neigh.
Wow, so we’re up 1° from 1982 alone, wish this went further back.
Edit: I’ve been told this makes me sound like I’m a climate denier, I assure you I’m not. Just surprised how fast climate change is happening.
This article has a graph that goes back to 1940 https://fox5sandiego.com/news/national-news/record-shattering-will-uncharted-ocean-warmth-point-to-active-hurricane-season/
https://www.wfla.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/71/2024/02/SST-anoms-Jan-1940-2024.png
the majority of the oxygen in the world is produced by phytoplankton's in the ocean. Boy oh boy, we are so very very screwed. But hey, for a little while, profits were really really good.
We had an extremely wet summer last year in Ireland, I wonder is the warmer oceans causing this, as it leads to warmer air and therefore more moisture?
A lot of this is due to a recent limitation on the amount of sulfur allowed in shipping boats' fuel. Less sulfur reduces the amount of clouds that form around that particulate, which reduces the cloud cover of the open ocean.
Either there's something wrong with the data, or we've gone non-linear. Beginning at the 2023, discontinuity at the end of 1q2023, there's a linear delta increasing through 2024. It appears an Excel spreadsheet formula review is in order... or were dead. Or both, but it won't happen that fast.
it's a singular jump due to a global crackdown on poisonous aerosols from ships' engines. Globally our air and rain became less toxic to humans and wildlife but in return we lost some of artificial cloud cover which reflected some incoming sunlight. For now the best explanation is that it's a single-time correction, not an onset of a consistent trend. But we'll see.
It's also showing how much there is to gain with the simplest geoengineering device we know (cloud seeding, literally just drop particles in the air and wait) so there's food for thought. And it could be done with salt from seawater sprayed upwards, so it's not too much of pollution
Wait until people realize what this is gonna do to both lake- and ocean-wildlife, not just for the larger lifeforms. Fresh water bodies will become dead and stagnant, as the top layers (strata's) will become too hot to support many lifeforms. And for the oceans, it may cripple the oxygen production (which accounts for even more than the world's forests).
It may be that we simply run low on oxygen levels in the air, and then the whole place goes silent.
We managed to do a SHITTON of technological progress in an extremely short amount of time, compared to other animals, but unfortunately with no regard for nature and the ecosystem, which is now collapsing and we're basically making ourselves extinct. Pretty stupid in a way...
Anyone know why it dips around June and November? The peaks make sense to me because that's when the Southern Hemisphere and Northern Hemisphere oceans are the warmest.
I visited south Florida this past summer during the two week heat wave where the record global ocean temp was recorded, and swam in it. When I tell you that the literal ocean, the gulf specifically, felt like a HOT TUB. I was truly horrified. Like I’m not even joking it felt like a hot shower (which, >100F would be 🤪) even 50-100 feet out from shore. I was especially shocked by how little the depth changed it as the water got deeper and further from shore, because the surface temps and lightest zones several feet deep were all still *HOT*. I’ve never been in an ocean that *wasn’t* freezing before that trip.
The aeresol masking effect from sulfur dioxides in shipping fuel was so much higher than scientists expected. The big study last year on it expects another .4C of global temperature rise from the demasking this summer. Basically we are already at the 1.5C heating the paris accords wanted to avoid, we were just hiding it with sulfur dioxides. Ocean scientists are seeing signs the oceans have maxed out their capacity as heat sinks as well and we will start seeing surface temperatures rise even higher. The permafrost melting and releasing a much more potent greenhouse gas in Methane is accelerating the affect as well. We are in a bad, bad place with climate change.
Interview with one of the scientists that worked on the study: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPAnoSt6FnY
The chart is not global, only +-60deg latitude. What has the pattern been in the other 60deg where the vast bulk of the ocean surface is. And what of the temperature at all depths below the surface, where virtually all the ocean volume is. What are the thermal flows between all of these, which may take centuries.
Just asking, not denying.
All of us watching this graph last year knew this year was gonna be worse but I had no idea it would be this much worse
Yeah… this is … I don’t know. I have done a lot of work to get to the acceptance part of the grief I feel at the accelerating state of things …but this is a whole new level…
If it's any consolation, the sea temperature seems to have to start dipping now that [El Nino is weakening](https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/)
But it wont dip back below previous levels. It will still be, on average, higher than previous levels. We're in a cumulative feed back system. With each step up greater than the fall back down. Failing something catastrophic happening (yellowstone, meteor) that blankets the earth with ash and induces an ice age, we have pumped so much CO2 into the atmosphere that there is no turning back *even if we ceased producing ANY greenhouse gases from this very moment*. We are locked in to dramatic climate change. We are entering interesting times.
> We are entering interesting times. "May you live in interesting times" is a curse.
Always has been
Shouldn't have wished to live in more interesting times.
Cursed to put my hands on everything.
That was my point.
I wonder if we could even stop it with CO2 recapture, completely stop producing CO2, and recapturing an amount of CO2. Thinking that even if we did that, it wouldn't solve anything, mitigate maybe, but not solve.
Stopping all carbon emissions would mean stopping the industrial farming, processing, packaging, distribution and storage of food that the current population of 8 billion humans relies upon for survival We went from 1 billion to 8 billion in 200 years primarily because of fossil fuels We're in a spot of bother, really
We would have to do that globally, stop cutting down forests, plant trees everywhere possible... The solution has been known for decades. It's just a very tall ask to get 8 billion people to agree on literally anything.
I live in n Texas. The summers have gotten so bad here we get cabin fever in the summer. We always got triple digit summers , but now pushing 110 and more. Can’t air condition our way out of this.
You should get out. You will see lethal wet bulb temps + grid failure in the near future
I still remember when it was unusual to get so many days in a row with highs above 100 degrees, back in the mid 90s in central Texas. Now that happens every summer.
Looking at charts regarding climate change the last few years makes me think we are moving from a linear growth to an exponential one. Not enough data points to confirm yet, but if we are... Nice meeting you all I guess.
We blew past prevention a long time ago. Now is the time for adaptation and restoration measures, degrowth, and throwing all the billionaires in prison.
That's the whole "tipping point" conversation that scientists have been having with, like, the world. FA? FO.
Basically every year for the past decade, we’ve had the headline “Hottest year on record!!”. But yes such a huge spike in a year is super-scary! That isn’t just “hotter” - it’s downright scalding!
Like every Jaws sequel.
at what point do we panic and head for the bunkers? It's gonna go back down a bit right?
It's going to be more of a slow burn; you won't need a bunker, your standard of life will just keep slowly dropping like it has been for many. Well, unless we start WWIII over immigration or resources or whatever as the pressure mounts. Might need a bunker for that.
Not necessarily. 1 or 2 breadbasket failures will lead to some intense social unrest as people in developed countries begin to starve. The comically ironic thing is that the US strategic grain stockpile is essentially empty, with all of the actual food converted into a fund to *buy grain* in the event of a breadbasket failure. Like, who the fuck made this idiotic decision? How the fuck are you supposed to buy grain when the US, one of the largest grain producers on the planet, has a sweeping crop failure?
Narrator : "it did not"
This is one time where I say “no, this data is not beautiful. This data is terrifying.”
There need to be r/ terrifying data. Because that is the 1st thing come to mind when I saw this and there will be increase in this types of data in future.
Will there? Can our crops survive this year? Will there even be data for the 2030 cycle?
Maybe this could be a r/birthofasub ?
r/dataisterrifying actually exists, but seems to be dead for the last 3 years.
Yeap..Looks like that sub also a victim of pandemic. Edit: spelling
Look, man, some of us are behind on our retirement savings, and this graph just takes care of that for us.
Mother nature has a fever. Guess what disease she's fighting?
I´d like to share a revelation that I´ve had during my time here. It came to me when I tried to classify your species, and I realized that you’re not actually mammals. Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with the surrounding environment, but you humans do not. You move to an area and you multiply and multiply until every natural resource is consumed. The only way can survive is to spread to another area. There is another organism on this planet that follows the same pattern. Do you know what it is? A virus. Human beings are a disease, a cancer of this planet. You’re a plague and we… are the cure.
I read that in Hugo Weaving's voice. Love that guy ever since Priscilla. And his niece is awesome too. Check her out in Babylon where she plays the silent film alter ego of talkie Margot Robbie.
Sorry Agent Smith but mammals don't instinctively develop an equilibrium at all. Mother nature keeps their numbers in check. Plenty of examples of other species thriving and then running out of food. Humans have just been the best at working around mother nature. That will soon change tho.
More cowbell ain't getting us out of this one.
Couldn't hurt.
A whole lot is gonna change real fast soon
Yeah I fully believe in the science but still find myself thinking "pleeeeease just be El Niño..."
Yep, we are measuring and collecting more detailed data than before this graph I think, but there are other concerning changes we’re already seeing. The temperature itself may not be the biggest concern, it’s the changes that will result: like additional fresh water from melting ice screwing up the ocean currents that play a huge role. The mixing of the deeper ocean and upper ocean slowing down because of the salt level change, which may also be why these temperatures are rising.
AKA “We’re fucked”
proper fucked?
Great year to sell your home on the Gulf / Eastern US seaboard.
The problem is no one is buying. In New Orleans at least. Some owners insurance bills are higher than the mortgage payment.
At least the house still exists!
Storms and hurricanes are gonna be lit!
Insurance premiums are gonna be lit.
What insurance premiums? They gone
The ultimate life hack! Don’t have to pay premiums if no one will insure your house!
Remember that in a hurricane, you should set your house on fire.
On one hand, that's terrible. On the other hand, Florida and Texas.
They'll get a lot of practice denying that catastrophic weather events are due to climate change.
They already have years of practice!!!
New York and Massachusetts too as storms move further and further north. Does that change things?
Considering the number of insurance companies that denied to cover my home in Brooklyn... yes. And I'm not even flood zones, like 70 feet above sea level, no flood or evacuation zone, no history of flooding.
If you take last year as a very small sample, the vast majority of strong storms turned north before they impacted the Caribbean.
Just those 2 states are affected.
[https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml)
This can be slightly misleading as Hurricane Katrina, a Cat 5 in 2005 that's still one the most damaging hurricanes of all time, isn't recorded at all in the 2001-2011 row. Heck, 2005 alone had four Cat 5 systems. As such, this isn't an exhaustive list of overall hurricane severity, as it only looks at cases where systems make landfall with the US. It overlooks how increasingly damaging hurricanes are in general and how much damage they've caused to the broader region.
That list is storms that made landfall at each category. Katrina weakened to a cat 3 right before landfall IIRC.
Katrina didn't even have the strongest winds of any hurricane that year, Rita was stronger iirc. Its damage had more to do with the location of impact and water management than anything else
Thank god we have nothing to worry about. Phew, this can be put to bed.
This data is misleading. There have been a ton of hurricanes that almost hit the US that were powerful. But because they didn't they don't count it. Sure there wasnt any damage but it doesnt show the rate of hurricanes forming over time.
I hate that this is the top response. It's not funny. Its not cool to joke about it. It's a real issue and problem.
Can I just be excited about watching the destabilization of a chaotic dynamic system. I've felt like an alien anthropologist for years already, spreading information about climate change. To some extent, what we've done is interesting, if not also terrible.
Real talk
It's cynical, sure, but what can we realistically do? It's the industries and global emitters that are accelerating this crisis, no amount of single people busing or biking to work will change the global impact from the individual. Hell, even if all of LA decided that they will never use cars again, it would still be a drop in the bucket compared to the steel mills and coal plants of the world.
It’s mainly a question of do you vote for people who will pass regulations to force those large polluters to rein in their emissions or do you vote for whack job climate denying right wing morons? That’s the single biggest thing that individual people can do in order to counter the influence of the conspiracy theory conservative death cult and affect change.
"it would still be a drop in the bucket" That's true, but we're going to need **a lot** of drops in the bucket to get this thing under control. We should all be doing whatever we can even if others aren't. Here's something you can do immediately that will make an impact on climate change. Lower your meat intake. I'm not saying "stop eating meat," I'm just saying that we should all eat less meat...especially red meat. Starting next week, have a meatless Monday, switch your taco meat with beans, have a hearty chili with no meat. Reducing our meat intake is the future if we want to survive. You'll find that it's really easy and still tasty if you give it a shot.
People act like there's no demand side to this issue. Sure Exxon pollutes more than you or I could ever dream of, but who are Exxon's customers? The supply doesn't exist without the demand.
Everyone can help, if you have given up then it's a problem. It's like when everyone sees an emergency happen but everyone expects other people to call it in. Everyone should call it in. Protest, write your politicians, talk about it.
Hank Green did a really neat explanation of why there is such a drastic jump: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dk8pwE3IByg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dk8pwE3IByg) Bad TLDW: Sulfur Dioxide, which was previously used (and recently banned) in cargo ship fuel, was decent at seeding clouds which in turn reflected solar energy.
YES! Sanctions limiting emissions of barges are actually leading to the large spike in temperatures. https://www.science.org/content/article/changing-clouds-unforeseen-test-geoengineering-fueling-record-ocean-warmth
Oh shit! I guess we should go back to polluting the air and water again
I know you're joking, but IIRC the sulfur emissions were leading upwards of 91000 excess deaths per year.
Salt can also seed clouds in the same manner which is much less polluting
We should put salt in the ships’ gas tanks then
Grim question, but I wonder how that compares to the excess deaths that will occur due to the much warmer temps.
We have learned with startling efficiency just how wrong we were about how bad it is.
I guess we need a global volcanic winter, or maybe nuke something.
yellowstone caldera when
Or just gently seed some clouds, which many people object to, because it's scary "geoengineering".
In the age of the anthropocene, with our ditches, sewer systems, water treatment plants, greenhouses, field tiling, dams, locks, and weirs, to object to the idea of making it rain, is very rich.
Problem with geoengineering is that they are temporary solutions. Once you stop pumping huge sums of money into the program, the effect stops with a whiplash effect. It also delays actions to reduce GHG emission because people don't feel the effect of climate change so it doesn't feel necessary to change.
The latter is accelerationism. The worse the better. Obviously irresponsible. The former is true - but we might actually need temporary solutions to keep things stable until the effect from the permanent solutions kicks in. Because there might be feedback loops if things get hot enough. Then the whole things goes off the rails. Heck, it's already looking like it's going off the rails.
Those minor problems aren't nearly as bad as doing nothing. The house is on fire but we can't put the fire out because the match store still sells matches.
Does this mean it's affecting the measurement, and not actually causing a massive increase? So like the previous years we're probably worse than we thought, but the dramatic jump in the last few years is not as dramatic?
No it's a real increase. The previous cloud cover caused by sulphur dioxide protected the oceans from some of the sun's energy, reflecting it back into space. Now though, all that energy will be directly warming the oceans. The previous level was "artificially" low due to our unintended geoengineering. This new level reflects what the ocean temperatures would have been given our Co2 levels if we didn't have artificially high cloud cover.
Thousands of ships spewing toxic gas into the atmosphere which in addition to poisoning everything, also cools the earth: cost of doing business. Intentionally putting a similar amount of nontoxic material in the air to replace the cooling effect: scary, “playing God”
El Niño + Climate Change = Hot Tub Oceans!
El Niño is Spanish for The Nino!
We’re rapidly moving into La Niña
[удалено]
Where did I say that? Upwelling (cold water coming to the surface) has already started in the EPAC. It’s overall still on the El Niño side but we will likely be in La Niña by the end of summer.
Can you explain the difference ELI5. Why do they switch? How do they switch? How often do they switch?
La Niña is cooler than average water in the eastern Pacific. El Niño has warmer than average. It cycles between these phases and a neutral phase on the timescale of a few years, and it has to do with the strength of the trade winds over that region of the Pacific. Rapid transitions from one to the other aren’t typical, but not that uncommon, and that’s forecast to happen this year. This cycle is called the “el nino southern oscillation” or ENSO. This might be a little technical but the maps are helpful. You can see we’re under both an El Niño advisory and La Niña watch. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
La Niña is bad for the Atlantic as that is what fuels hurricanes there.
I love that the more screwed we are, the more angsty and aggressive the denial gets, manifesting in all respective ideologies.
Afaik, recently deniers switched to “it’s already too late to act” arguments.
There it is, again That funny feeling.
The quiet comprehending of the ending of it all?
20,000 years of this…
7 more to go
[“Okay Manbearpig is real, but what can we gonna do about it now, huh? What are we gonna do that’s gonna make aaany difference now, Susan? What can we do that everyone else is also gonna do, come on Susan use your brain. Even if we do something about it what about the Chinese they’re just gonna…”](https://youtu.be/U5wM5pesggE?si=vNy2iLn7MuW5yUqB)
Heavily depends on the person doing the denying
They will look at a graph like this and say, " How do you know this didn't happen 5,000,000 years ago( or 6000 years ago if they are TRUE idiots) ?
But how do you know this didn't happen 5,000,000 years ago or 6000 years ago? /s
it's all over this thread. Not that it's the same people in this case, but the climate nihilistic doomerism (in younger people especially) really concerns me. Yes, at this point it will be bad. Not all bad outcomes are equally bad, and that doesn't mean nothing can be done. Spreading the attitude that it's all futile is making the problem worse.
Totally agree. It’s too late true. But this is a bottomless pit. It will keep getting worse until we act. We should have started yesterday, but starting today will always be better than starting tomorrow.
Precisely! It's like they're gambling and doubling down. In a few thousand years, the scientists will be peeling those billionaire corpses from their bunkers.
Those who are whining about billionaire bunkers (i.e. "They're just going to lock themselves away and leave us all to die") don't pay much attention to history....Ceaușescu, Diem, Hitler. Trying to insulate yourself from the problem you had a bigger hand in causing than the rest of us never works out in the end. According those cashing in on building these bunkers, occupants can't even operate the smart appliances. #
Thebes in horizon forbidden West is one place that I always play through slowly. Every person with power would do well to know the folly of Ted Faro.
Is it bad that my first thought when I looked at the legend was “oh fuck”?
Interesting question. Bad in the “the data communicates well” sense, no actually it’s great! Bad in the existential sense? …. Yes.
Mine was “HOLEEE SHHHEEIIIITTT”
This should be leading every news show. We are well and truly fucked. We know how the oceans mitigate weather, they slowly warm in the summer and mitigate heat, and slowly cool in the winter to mitigate cold. And have been absorbing an estimated 90% of the global temperature change caused by human emissions. Pretty sure everyone knows what happens when the pot boils.
The noodles go in?
Needs a label that darker blue is older
I get that it's climate change in general, but why is the past year so particularly bad all of a sudden?
I don't think they know for sure, but possibly new SO2 pollution standards for ships, which went into effect last year. Atmospheric SO2 reflects sunlight and reduces warming. We're also on the El Nino portion of the ENSO cycle. And a large underwater volcano erupted which sent a large amount of water vapor into the atmosphere. And, of course, there's also the relentless slow increases which has been happening for decades from burning fossil fuels. If the SO2 standards are most of the reason, we should see a permanent one-time shift. Any rise from a volcanic eruption should dissipate relatively quickly. The ENSO cycle causes pretty large temperature swings for up to a year at a time, but probably not *this* large. We should see *some* reversion towards the mean when the ENSO cycle moves towards neutral, which is currently forecast to happen late this year.
There were papers written about the ocean absorbing the excess heat for the past 20 years but its reached a point where it can't absorb anymore at the lower depths so it's starting to equalise pushing more heat up and slowing down the gulf stream.
Is that bad
Have you ever seen the movie Day After Tomorrow? This is the premise of that movie, and it’s terrifying.
How likely is a “Day After Tomorrow” scenario?
The general gist of the climate suddenly changing due to something toppling over is realistic. We have records of the climate suddenly changing in the past. However the movie is too extreme. It wouldn't get that cold. But there will be more and more failed harvests and natural disasters as the climate destabilizes. Unfortunately it's more likely for the poorest countries to once again feel the brunt of damage. They are in regions that will heat faster and they have less robust infrastructure to deal with the changes... But all regions on earth will suffer and the movie does make a valid point that there will be climate refugees and that we should be compassionate because it could just as well have been the other way around...
Day after tomorrow scenario would not happen. It doesn't happen like that. Just expect big hurricanes, storms, heatwaves, draught, floods.
It's based on real science. The slowing of the gulf stream contributed heavily to the last ice age. And it's definatley showing signs of slowing again.
>It's based on real science "Based on" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. Yes, it would be bad. It would not be "run down a hallway to escape the cold" bad.
Don't forget the wolves.
Yeah, it also wouldn’t take a couple of days to unfold lol
Wow that sucks
> If the SO2 standards are most of the reason, we should see a permanent one-time shift. Unless we hit a feedback loop.
Is the SO2 pollution bad enough that the negatives outweigh the reflected sunlight?
Not sure what "bad enough" means, but [here's what the EPA says about SO2 pollution](https://www.epa.gov/so2-pollution/sulfur-dioxide-basics). It's pretty nasty stuff. I've heard claims that the "pause" in global warming in the 1950s was caused by increased aerosol air pollution countering the greenhouse effect from CO2 emissions. When we cleaned up our aerosol emissions, the temperatures started going up.
My understanding is that the SO2 induced acid rain is worse for the environment and climate change than having it in the air reflecting light
To pile on, I’ve heard that we could spray aerosols into the atmosphere to cool down the planet. Is that true?
It's one of the things people are studying. Of course you want to be extremely careful about something like this. There's a real risk of unintended consequences.
There are some theories its partially due to new pollution controls on shipping. They used to release a lot of chemicals which were bad, but had a cooling effect by sending clouds, masking some warming especially in the North Atlantic. Now that’s gone the feedback loop is kicking in
Wonder if there’s some hope in this fact that that another human activity was effectively reducing the temp. We may need to resort to additional Geo Engineering to offset or at least slow down the effects of the indirect engineering we do every day
Yeah, that'll turn out well.
Well , we’re already doing this indirectly. What we’re doing now is not working at least not at the speed we need it to. This would buy some time.
We probably won't unless it becomes an emergency *Checks the current politics* Oh shit...
The later stuff you said costs companies money, so they’ll likely be futile efforts with little to no effect. Y’all should be working on your cardio, looking at maps that predict forecasted effects of climate change, and try to move to places that are forecasted to be the least affected by the drastically changing environment. If the treatment of the already impoverished and displaced people of the current world are any inclination as to how the displaced people from climate change will be treated, it’s probably best that you start the climate wars in a region that is predicted to fair well through the crisis. Then again, nature has been showing us how stupidly conservative our models are, and how much we’ve underestimated this shit already, so maybe just work on the cardio.
Shit, so this is not temporary and those temperatures are the new normal?
If the theory is correct yes, unless we do some sort of geoengineering. The silver lining is that while it would mean that this form of pollution has actually masked the true extent of carbon's effect on temperatures until now, it would also be evidence that cloud seeding is effective in cooling the planet. It may be possible to use less harmful chemicals to achieve the same effect. This would be only a temporary solution of course. Long term the only solution is to go fully carbon neutral (or even carbon negative, if possible) as a society.
It’s because of sanctions on barges limiting their emissions as counter intuitive as that may seem. The ship tracks act as cloud cover reflecting a lot of the suns rays back https://www.science.org/content/article/changing-clouds-unforeseen-test-geoengineering-fueling-record-ocean-warmth
Oceans release co2 in the atmosphere when they overheat so that tends to amplify the problem. Its believed that small initial changes in temperature of the oceans are what triggers the end and starts of earth ice ages
Feedback loops have kicked in,
Looks like we're entering the finding out stage after quite some fucking around.
Well living was okay I guess. Boiling to death wasn't how I wanted to go but I know some people who definitely deserve that when the time comes so at least there's a silver lining
Since you seem to have a good sense of humor about it, I'll share this song with you that really helped me laugh at the absurdity of it all. It's ostensibly about the atomic bomb, but it's applicability to all our existential problems is a pleasing (and grim) coincidence. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frAEmhqdLFs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frAEmhqdLFs)
These ain’t rookie numbers anymore folks
Checking in from bangalore, India. Draught like conditions since last year and we have run out of water. Avg temperature is 2 degrees above normal for this time of the year. When it rains then there will be a flood. The end is neigh.
Wow, so we’re up 1° from 1982 alone, wish this went further back. Edit: I’ve been told this makes me sound like I’m a climate denier, I assure you I’m not. Just surprised how fast climate change is happening.
I think the concerning part is most of the degree occurred in a single year that's maintaining.
Oh yeah, 2023 is 0.3° above the next lowest year which is insane considering it took 40 years to make up the .9°
This article has a graph that goes back to 1940 https://fox5sandiego.com/news/national-news/record-shattering-will-uncharted-ocean-warmth-point-to-active-hurricane-season/ https://www.wfla.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/71/2024/02/SST-anoms-Jan-1940-2024.png
the majority of the oxygen in the world is produced by phytoplankton's in the ocean. Boy oh boy, we are so very very screwed. But hey, for a little while, profits were really really good.
They say humans have trouble with exponentials.
X axis could use some delineation like months. Does the blue gradient have relevance to year or just for impact?
We had an extremely wet summer last year in Ireland, I wonder is the warmer oceans causing this, as it leads to warmer air and therefore more moisture?
The difference between first and second place is larger than the difference between second place and the long term average. This is terrifying.
Looking at this fills me with such dread I don't even know what to do.
Continue living to the fullest until something else kills you. Your personal dread is futile and doesn’t help solve the problem
This is strangely comforting in a way Nobody cares :( Nobody cares! :)
Ignore it or become an eco terrorist.
For the record, this data is not beautiful.
A lot of this is due to a recent limitation on the amount of sulfur allowed in shipping boats' fuel. Less sulfur reduces the amount of clouds that form around that particulate, which reduces the cloud cover of the open ocean.
Either there's something wrong with the data, or we've gone non-linear. Beginning at the 2023, discontinuity at the end of 1q2023, there's a linear delta increasing through 2024. It appears an Excel spreadsheet formula review is in order... or were dead. Or both, but it won't happen that fast.
it's a singular jump due to a global crackdown on poisonous aerosols from ships' engines. Globally our air and rain became less toxic to humans and wildlife but in return we lost some of artificial cloud cover which reflected some incoming sunlight. For now the best explanation is that it's a single-time correction, not an onset of a consistent trend. But we'll see. It's also showing how much there is to gain with the simplest geoengineering device we know (cloud seeding, literally just drop particles in the air and wait) so there's food for thought. And it could be done with salt from seawater sprayed upwards, so it's not too much of pollution
Yar, I hate the sea and everything in it.
I’ve seen a lot of climate graphs. This is the first one that caused me to say “what the fuck” out loud.
Wait until people realize what this is gonna do to both lake- and ocean-wildlife, not just for the larger lifeforms. Fresh water bodies will become dead and stagnant, as the top layers (strata's) will become too hot to support many lifeforms. And for the oceans, it may cripple the oxygen production (which accounts for even more than the world's forests). It may be that we simply run low on oxygen levels in the air, and then the whole place goes silent.
Who's ready for another hottest year on record and more once-in-a-lifetime weather events
Shouldn't all the years be labeled for clarity?
We’re cooked. Or cooking. Either way not a good sight for a lot of people.
It’d be interesting to see the last 100 years 🤔
Welp, earth had a good run
Earth will be fine. Humans had a good run
Meh, I wouldn't say "good"
We had a run, it was a run ok
A run of all time
We managed to do a SHITTON of technological progress in an extremely short amount of time, compared to other animals, but unfortunately with no regard for nature and the ecosystem, which is now collapsing and we're basically making ourselves extinct. Pretty stupid in a way...
It's crazy that we could see a Day After Tomorrow circumstance where everything seems to change on a dime. Enjoy nature while you still can!
Anyone know why it dips around June and November? The peaks make sense to me because that's when the Southern Hemisphere and Northern Hemisphere oceans are the warmest.
Soon, the entire world will be a hot bath.
This is fine though. Totally normal. No need to raise the alarm. Let’s keep fighting amongst ourselves. It has been helpful.
This isn't beautiful. This is terrifying. I'm pretty sure we have lift-off.
I visited south Florida this past summer during the two week heat wave where the record global ocean temp was recorded, and swam in it. When I tell you that the literal ocean, the gulf specifically, felt like a HOT TUB. I was truly horrified. Like I’m not even joking it felt like a hot shower (which, >100F would be 🤪) even 50-100 feet out from shore. I was especially shocked by how little the depth changed it as the water got deeper and further from shore, because the surface temps and lightest zones several feet deep were all still *HOT*. I’ve never been in an ocean that *wasn’t* freezing before that trip.
This sub should be renamed "data is scary"
this is not concerning at all, everything is fine :) i’m sure its just a blip
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ interactive version, https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world for Surface air temps.
So much reef is already lost. That biome and world will exist only in memory within the next 5 years
This isn’t beautiful, it’s fucking terrifying.
The aeresol masking effect from sulfur dioxides in shipping fuel was so much higher than scientists expected. The big study last year on it expects another .4C of global temperature rise from the demasking this summer. Basically we are already at the 1.5C heating the paris accords wanted to avoid, we were just hiding it with sulfur dioxides. Ocean scientists are seeing signs the oceans have maxed out their capacity as heat sinks as well and we will start seeing surface temperatures rise even higher. The permafrost melting and releasing a much more potent greenhouse gas in Methane is accelerating the affect as well. We are in a bad, bad place with climate change. Interview with one of the scientists that worked on the study: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPAnoSt6FnY
Source: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/json/oisst2.1_world2_sst_day.json Tool: D3.js
Source link is not clickable.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world
The chart is not global, only +-60deg latitude. What has the pattern been in the other 60deg where the vast bulk of the ocean surface is. And what of the temperature at all depths below the surface, where virtually all the ocean volume is. What are the thermal flows between all of these, which may take centuries. Just asking, not denying.
Yeah, hot here means flowing to colder somewhere, I'd assume. So, what's the rest of the picture look like? How does this tie into other events?