No it kinda is. Basically a surgically repaired ACL ends up more resilient than an untouched one. The impacts come from mobility loss but we’ve gotten VERY good at that surgery. In fact some young players have discussed having Preemptive ACL surgery in HS
Obviously this isn’t always the case.
Cyberpunk 2077 had a great questline in the DLC where they were training kids as young as 4 and 5 and giving them cybernetic enhancements and fake limbs and shit to play professional sports.
A very dark timeline that would be, and we are certainly on our way there.
Well that was 15 years ago. And I'm guessing you are not in the physical shape of an NFL athlete. Nor did you have the surgery done by the calibre of specialists who work on NFL athletes.
I do know in baseball it's seen as a bonus these days if a prospect/FA has already gotten his Tommy John done. I guess it makes sense that ACL is trending the same way.
It isn't better. I'm not too sure what this guy is talking about. Unless the players ACL is compromised to some extent no surgeon would operate on healthy tissue. Nothing is better than the natural integrity of a ligament. ICU nurse of 15 years. I've worked on plenty of Ortho units as well.
Yeah it was more of a third knee joke done poorly on my end. I’ve actually had the pleasure of tearing the same acl twice, but like others have mentioned I’m about as far from a professional athlete as possible and didn’t have access to the best surgeons and recovery methods available. Even the surgeons were surprised it happened a second time. It did teach me that statistics are weird and some of us end up being that 1% with weird anecdotes.
Tests have shown that players actually come back stronger then before after surgery and rehab for the torn ACL. So with 2 torn he is 4 times stronger then before lol
Right but we still USED the first on it to get the player. Saying we just traded our two thirds to get our 2 CB’s is p disingenuous when we also spent a first to draft one
I’m still happy we did it but it’s not just two thirds for Arnold and Davis
Not thrilled we moved up 5 spots for him and lost a third but I trust brad. I’m expecting him to be a stud. I also can’t complain because every year I bang the drum of drafting defense. Hope they continue drafting defense. I imagine a wide receiver is drafted next though, i don’t think they are sold on jamo.
Bro. We had a first regardless. We just got a better one in exchange for giving up a third. So we traded two thirds for two corners. I don't understand how you're not getting this logic lol
I understand what’s being said I just disagree with saying we traded two thirds for two corners when we also had to use a first round pick to do it lmao. you’re still using the first round draft pick to make the pick man.
Before the Davis trade, we had two thirds and a first round pick to use to get players. Now we’ve used all of those assets to get Davis and Arnold. That’s all I’m saying haha
Did you believe we could get Arnold for a 3rd round pick? I heard he was projected to be #15 or higher. We were fortunate he was there at 24. Brad thought what he did was a good deal. Only time will tell, not a bunch of wanna be GM’s. I include myself in that group. 😁
I don’t think you understood the comment you responded to. This person isn’t saying Arnold was drafted too high; they are clarifying that the lions used two third rd picks and a first rounder to get their cbs, not just thirds.
When they said we used a precious 1st rounder, it was like obvious we would have to use a 1st rounder to draft him. Would he have been available at 29? I don’t know. The price wasn’t too high especially if they both excel.
You can argue between him and Mitchell but Arnold was clearly the better fit for us specifically.
And look I know that I am an idiot and know nothing about football compared to NFL scouts… but I can’t help but be suspicious of a guy in such a 1v1 position who only has a single senior bowls worth of tape with him covering anyone worth a damn. They were showing Toledo highlights and it looked like he was playing vs uncoordinated children compared to NFL talent. Mitchell probably ends up great but Arnold feels like the more for sure pick.
Look, I love TA and I’m thrilled we got him but Mitchell is a straight baller, there’s lots of great tape of him going against arguably the best player in the draft last night in MHJ. It’s probably a coin flip between the two as to who’s CB1.
After last year it's weird to see most of the fanbase united about this being a stellar decision instead of losing their shit
(Not gonna pretend like I wasn't part of the "losing their shit" crows last year)
In the post day press conference he talked about how surprised he was that the best guy available also lined up with a huge need. I think almost everyone assumed there was no way we'd get him, so we all started looking at CB prospects that were maybe 3rd or 4th best lol
A third is often a starter and we didn’t move up that many spots. The trade value chart isn’t an exact science but according to that swapping thirds with Dallas would’ve been more fair than giving it up outright.
We gave up almost as much as in the Jamo trade and that was 20 spots instead of 5.
Often??
Only 16% of 3rd rounders develop into starters.
https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/board/105323/contents/odds-of-becoming-a-quality-player-in-the-nfl-by-draft-round-211678773/#:~:text=Odds%20are%20not%20high%20you,developed%20into%20solid%20NFL%20starter.
Here’s another way of looking at it: 2nd contracts.
https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-high
Of those drafted in the 3rd round, less than half of them even signed a 2nd contract (just over 30% signed one, with another team, under 20% signed a 2nd contract with the same team that drafted them). That means the majority didn’t even get a 2nd contract and were out of the league.
Not really. Looking at the 2018-22, almost 200 players were from 3rd round picks, less than 100 have at least a season as primary starter and only 25 have played every year as a primary starter for their team
So half are already starters and those that aren’t include guys drafted last year who are still developing such as Hooker and Martin. I dunno that sounds pretty often to me.
This was literally the conversation I had at FF with the people around me. No way that Brad gives up the second, the third would be steep, but the fourth would be perfect.
We end up giving up the 3rd for a 7th (which can be repackaged later), but the question I had was if this was better than us giving up our 4th and 7th? That’s a good thought experiment and one that I definitely don’t have the answer to, especially without the draft pick matrix.
Yea if we still had our 4th we likely trade that instead. I get though that Dallas probably wasn’t budging for a 2025 pick and we were bidding against the clock so we had to pull the trigger on what we had.
It's going to be a lot harder for a third to crack our lineup this year, so the pick doesn't have the same value it had in the past.
Gotta give up depth to get a premier piece.
Great pick but a tough price to swallow. Really hope Paschal is ready to be The Guy across Hutch or we find a really promising guard in the 6th round, we don’t have many more bites at the apple or ability to get them without selling 2025 picks
We already have our starting guards locked up for the year and a whole carousel of edge rushers opposite of Hutch. We traded potential depth for the second-best fucking CB in the draft. Yall cry too much fr
Nah, fuck that. I make this trade 10 times out of 10 if he’s as good as advertised (and I trust if Brad’s willing to move up for him then our scouts also rate him highly)
Arnoldo’s not only the best CB in the draft. He’s a tier above almost every other prospect. He profiles at a Kendall Fuller, Darius Slay level. He’s not gonna make every pro bowl but he’s gonna make some. Mitchell has the talent to be All Pro but the floor is much lower- he was guarding receivers from Northern Illinois after all.
And a first round pick. Ppl keep forgetting this was more than a third rd pick. It cost us a first round pick as well. Praying this guy isn’t the next fair, Westbrook or okudah
The price isn't a bummer. Terrion Arnold is a damn good player at a position of need that the front office viewed as significantly better than the other options at his position in the draft. Instead of a third, would you trade Hendon Hooker or Broderic Martin for him? I would.
I’m sorry but how is analysis and an opinion crying? I don’t think this dudes comment came cross that way and I think that Reddit is t a good platform to talk about the pros and cons of the pick. I’m pumped they drafted defense in the first round, but he’s not wrong that the lions could use a better defensive end or linebacker as well, so here’s hoping. Have a feeling we draft a wr next
We addressed our need at outside CB with probably a top-15 prospect, and we also addressed safety depth because Branch is now free to play either in the slot or at safety
And ppl like this dude are going around saying it’s a bummer that we had to give up a fucking 3rd rounder, which has a 50% chance of being out of the league in 4 years compared to a 10% chance of ever making a pro bowl. It’s petty as hell for what we were able to get.
We have Houston, Commish, Paschal, and Davenport at EDGE, plus Reader in the middle to open things up for them, plus Alim coming off a damn good season. We’ll be fine as long as AG gets back to rushing the passer instead of overplaying the run
I do think they like their line more than many fans do. Also It seems like there DE's that will be available at 61. Kneeland, Adisa Isaac, Jonah Eliss, and Braswell all still available. Could go inside with Johnny Newton, Fiske, and Orhororo avialable too.
That said it also wouldn't surprise me if they targeted someone later as well. They talked to both Michigan guys McGregor and Harrell. They talked to the William and Mary guy as well. But then what do they do in the 2nd? Potentially Oline, Kingsley or a G? I think WR could use another dude, but it seems like all the interesting Day 2 guys went last night. Maybe there's interest in Johnny Wilson with the size-speed combo.
I would love to get Kneeland. Don’t think it’ll happen, but he’s been interviewed twice by the staff on top of being an in-state guy they likely would have scouted quite a bit.
Would be happy with any of those guys though. Would really like to see the Dline targeted, but ultimately they’re going to go BPA, which is the right thing to do here.
Do you guys think if C. Davis has a good to great season we resign him? Or is he 1 year and done because of the depth we now have and probably want to get them on the field more after next season???
Tabor ran a 4.7 that’s a little different.
But you can find anecdotal evidence of players the other direction too. Richard Sherman, Xavier Howard and Joe Haden all ran 4.5 40s and were all very good corners.
Oh man... I wonder if something could be different about the Lions from when Tabor and Okudah were drafted. I can't put my finger on it... but I don't think those examples are applicable.
Ok... and had we not drafted Okudah at 3 and instead got him at 24... we would have loved Okudah too. Okudah was a wonderful prospect, he just got hurt and he got put into a system run by Fatty Patty.
Hell, in his last year in Detroit with the new regime, he was turning into a really solid player before he got hurt again.
If Terrion Arnold is another Okudah? I'm happy with it, because we actually have a staff that won't go out of their way to fuck with his development because they're bad at their jobs.
✅ get great player at position of need ✅ fuck over the packers
We traded our two third round picks for our starting CBs lol
Dear god, it’s beautiful!
Reminder we also have Emmanuel Moseley still
I can’t wait for him to be healthy, i think he’s going to be very hungry to get back out there and play this season
Reminder he has two torn ACLs
Unless he has a third acl that means he can’t possibly tear any more, right? That’s how ligaments work?
You are correct. Also, I’m not a doctor.
No it kinda is. Basically a surgically repaired ACL ends up more resilient than an untouched one. The impacts come from mobility loss but we’ve gotten VERY good at that surgery. In fact some young players have discussed having Preemptive ACL surgery in HS Obviously this isn’t always the case.
That is an insane sentence, and one that suggests we have completely lost our way with youth sports.
Cyberpunk 2077 had a great questline in the DLC where they were training kids as young as 4 and 5 and giving them cybernetic enhancements and fake limbs and shit to play professional sports. A very dark timeline that would be, and we are certainly on our way there.
What? How? I tore my ACL and had it replaced in 2010. I still experience pain to this day
Well that was 15 years ago. And I'm guessing you are not in the physical shape of an NFL athlete. Nor did you have the surgery done by the calibre of specialists who work on NFL athletes. I do know in baseball it's seen as a bonus these days if a prospect/FA has already gotten his Tommy John done. I guess it makes sense that ACL is trending the same way.
15 years is a LONNNGGG time in medicine. Advancement is progressing almost as rapidly as tech.
Bro, you may as well have fought in the civil war at this point. 2010 was a different era in medicine lol
I guess I’m still just missing how cutting up your knee could make it better
It isn't better. I'm not too sure what this guy is talking about. Unless the players ACL is compromised to some extent no surgeon would operate on healthy tissue. Nothing is better than the natural integrity of a ligament. ICU nurse of 15 years. I've worked on plenty of Ortho units as well.
Yes, they’re built stronger than before. I know you’re joking, but it would be unlikely for him to tear his acl again given he did both already
Yeah it was more of a third knee joke done poorly on my end. I’ve actually had the pleasure of tearing the same acl twice, but like others have mentioned I’m about as far from a professional athlete as possible and didn’t have access to the best surgeons and recovery methods available. Even the surgeons were surprised it happened a second time. It did teach me that statistics are weird and some of us end up being that 1% with weird anecdotes.
This is true you can't tear the same ACL twice. That's double jeopardy and it's illegal
Tests have shown that players actually come back stronger then before after surgery and rehab for the torn ACL. So with 2 torn he is 4 times stronger then before lol
He’s blown out 2 acls the last 2 years that can mean absolutely nothing
I love Brad. Terrion is going to be a STUD
What an amazing way to look at it. So fucking true. LETS FUCKING GO
Two thirds and a first but yeah lmao I’m not upset
Pick swap
Right but we still USED the first on it to get the player. Saying we just traded our two thirds to get our 2 CB’s is p disingenuous when we also spent a first to draft one I’m still happy we did it but it’s not just two thirds for Arnold and Davis
Yeah that makes sense
Not thrilled we moved up 5 spots for him and lost a third but I trust brad. I’m expecting him to be a stud. I also can’t complain because every year I bang the drum of drafting defense. Hope they continue drafting defense. I imagine a wide receiver is drafted next though, i don’t think they are sold on jamo.
Big if true
Bro. We had a first regardless. We just got a better one in exchange for giving up a third. So we traded two thirds for two corners. I don't understand how you're not getting this logic lol
I understand what’s being said I just disagree with saying we traded two thirds for two corners when we also had to use a first round pick to do it lmao. you’re still using the first round draft pick to make the pick man. Before the Davis trade, we had two thirds and a first round pick to use to get players. Now we’ve used all of those assets to get Davis and Arnold. That’s all I’m saying haha
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Keep it civil / do not troll
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Did you believe we could get Arnold for a 3rd round pick? I heard he was projected to be #15 or higher. We were fortunate he was there at 24. Brad thought what he did was a good deal. Only time will tell, not a bunch of wanna be GM’s. I include myself in that group. 😁
I don’t think you understood the comment you responded to. This person isn’t saying Arnold was drafted too high; they are clarifying that the lions used two third rd picks and a first rounder to get their cbs, not just thirds.
When they said we used a precious 1st rounder, it was like obvious we would have to use a 1st rounder to draft him. Would he have been available at 29? I don’t know. The price wasn’t too high especially if they both excel.
“Logic” lol
Also traded our first
Third off season in a role he has tried to rebuild the secondary. Eventually it's going to work.
Also stole GB’s pick. FTP
This is the best part
Best part of the night maybe….but the best is yet to come with Arnold
I can't believe we got TA for that price. I thought trading up to 18 was best possible scenario. What a great price.
If you told me before the draft we trade up to 24 for this I think “eh whatever” but for TA? Whew boy.
CB1 in this draft, reunited with Branch. Brad Cooking!
You can argue between him and Mitchell but Arnold was clearly the better fit for us specifically. And look I know that I am an idiot and know nothing about football compared to NFL scouts… but I can’t help but be suspicious of a guy in such a 1v1 position who only has a single senior bowls worth of tape with him covering anyone worth a damn. They were showing Toledo highlights and it looked like he was playing vs uncoordinated children compared to NFL talent. Mitchell probably ends up great but Arnold feels like the more for sure pick.
Look, I love TA and I’m thrilled we got him but Mitchell is a straight baller, there’s lots of great tape of him going against arguably the best player in the draft last night in MHJ. It’s probably a coin flip between the two as to who’s CB1.
Great fucking pick. Him and BB are going to eat this season. Brad and company are geniuses. The Alabama to Detroit connection continues!
LETS GOOO FUTURE HOF
FUCK
THE
PACKERS
Thank you lol
YES
Are we not going to let Brad Cook????
After last year it's weird to see most of the fanbase united about this being a stellar decision instead of losing their shit (Not gonna pretend like I wasn't part of the "losing their shit" crows last year)
In the post day press conference he talked about how surprised he was that the best guy available also lined up with a huge need. I think almost everyone assumed there was no way we'd get him, so we all started looking at CB prospects that were maybe 3rd or 4th best lol
A third is steep but if he’s Holmes’ guy I can live with it
Keeping him away from Green Bay is worth it.
This is the way
A third is not steep for a borderline top 10 prospect
How is a 3rd steep
A third is often a starter and we didn’t move up that many spots. The trade value chart isn’t an exact science but according to that swapping thirds with Dallas would’ve been more fair than giving it up outright. We gave up almost as much as in the Jamo trade and that was 20 spots instead of 5.
Often?? Only 16% of 3rd rounders develop into starters. https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/board/105323/contents/odds-of-becoming-a-quality-player-in-the-nfl-by-draft-round-211678773/#:~:text=Odds%20are%20not%20high%20you,developed%20into%20solid%20NFL%20starter.
Damn figured it was higher than that
Develop into “solid” starters, which even the guy posting it says is a subjective measurement
Here’s another way of looking at it: 2nd contracts. https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-high Of those drafted in the 3rd round, less than half of them even signed a 2nd contract (just over 30% signed one, with another team, under 20% signed a 2nd contract with the same team that drafted them). That means the majority didn’t even get a 2nd contract and were out of the league.
This is how you know they loved him. They valued him much higher than the typical 24th pick and were willing to pay the price to get him.
I think Dallas knew we wanted him badly and told us if we want him, gotta pay up a little extra I’m fine with it I wanted Arnold all night
Not really. Looking at the 2018-22, almost 200 players were from 3rd round picks, less than 100 have at least a season as primary starter and only 25 have played every year as a primary starter for their team
So half are already starters and those that aren’t include guys drafted last year who are still developing such as Hooker and Martin. I dunno that sounds pretty often to me.
to be fair that trade was also pretty universally lambasted for Minnesota
Holmes drafted Hooker last year in the third. I’m good with giving that up this year.
He drafted Amon ra in the fourth…
Yeah, but we got the guy we wanted before what Brad and Dan viewed as a precipitous drop in quality. Context matters, my dude.
This was literally the conversation I had at FF with the people around me. No way that Brad gives up the second, the third would be steep, but the fourth would be perfect. We end up giving up the 3rd for a 7th (which can be repackaged later), but the question I had was if this was better than us giving up our 4th and 7th? That’s a good thought experiment and one that I definitely don’t have the answer to, especially without the draft pick matrix.
Yea if we still had our 4th we likely trade that instead. I get though that Dallas probably wasn’t budging for a 2025 pick and we were bidding against the clock so we had to pull the trigger on what we had.
At the end of the night we got our guy who can step in day one and be a difference maker on the outside.
It's going to be a lot harder for a third to crack our lineup this year, so the pick doesn't have the same value it had in the past. Gotta give up depth to get a premier piece.
Back to back years we stole an elite DB prospect from the Pack. I love Brad Holmes
Pro bowl
LFG
Great pick but a tough price to swallow. Really hope Paschal is ready to be The Guy across Hutch or we find a really promising guard in the 6th round, we don’t have many more bites at the apple or ability to get them without selling 2025 picks
We already have our starting guards locked up for the year and a whole carousel of edge rushers opposite of Hutch. We traded potential depth for the second-best fucking CB in the draft. Yall cry too much fr
Both things can be true: 1. This was a good pick 2. The price to get it done is a bit of a bummer
Nah, fuck that. I make this trade 10 times out of 10 if he’s as good as advertised (and I trust if Brad’s willing to move up for him then our scouts also rate him highly)
It can still be a bummer though…
I do not see it as steep. We have a starting CB2 using a 3 rd pick. I think Arnold was probably the best CB in the draft, so IMO this is a good trade
Arnoldo’s not only the best CB in the draft. He’s a tier above almost every other prospect. He profiles at a Kendall Fuller, Darius Slay level. He’s not gonna make every pro bowl but he’s gonna make some. Mitchell has the talent to be All Pro but the floor is much lower- he was guarding receivers from Northern Illinois after all.
And a first round pick. Ppl keep forgetting this was more than a third rd pick. It cost us a first round pick as well. Praying this guy isn’t the next fair, Westbrook or okudah
The price isn't a bummer. Terrion Arnold is a damn good player at a position of need that the front office viewed as significantly better than the other options at his position in the draft. Instead of a third, would you trade Hendon Hooker or Broderic Martin for him? I would.
Don’t waste your time talking about value in this sub lol. People don’t understand the concept of uncertainty & variance
I concur
I’m sorry but how is analysis and an opinion crying? I don’t think this dudes comment came cross that way and I think that Reddit is t a good platform to talk about the pros and cons of the pick. I’m pumped they drafted defense in the first round, but he’s not wrong that the lions could use a better defensive end or linebacker as well, so here’s hoping. Have a feeling we draft a wr next
We addressed our need at outside CB with probably a top-15 prospect, and we also addressed safety depth because Branch is now free to play either in the slot or at safety And ppl like this dude are going around saying it’s a bummer that we had to give up a fucking 3rd rounder, which has a 50% chance of being out of the league in 4 years compared to a 10% chance of ever making a pro bowl. It’s petty as hell for what we were able to get. We have Houston, Commish, Paschal, and Davenport at EDGE, plus Reader in the middle to open things up for them, plus Alim coming off a damn good season. We’ll be fine as long as AG gets back to rushing the passer instead of overplaying the run
I do think they like their line more than many fans do. Also It seems like there DE's that will be available at 61. Kneeland, Adisa Isaac, Jonah Eliss, and Braswell all still available. Could go inside with Johnny Newton, Fiske, and Orhororo avialable too. That said it also wouldn't surprise me if they targeted someone later as well. They talked to both Michigan guys McGregor and Harrell. They talked to the William and Mary guy as well. But then what do they do in the 2nd? Potentially Oline, Kingsley or a G? I think WR could use another dude, but it seems like all the interesting Day 2 guys went last night. Maybe there's interest in Johnny Wilson with the size-speed combo.
I would love to get Kneeland. Don’t think it’ll happen, but he’s been interviewed twice by the staff on top of being an in-state guy they likely would have scouted quite a bit. Would be happy with any of those guys though. Would really like to see the Dline targeted, but ultimately they’re going to go BPA, which is the right thing to do here.
Davenport and Houston exist coming back from injuries. It’s not all on Paschal here
Their skill sets are both pretty dedicated to clear pass rush situations, but yes.
It’s the first round, go outside nerd ain’t got no time for your nonsense
Huh?
Going to need more elaboration than that
You think we traded away a starting Josh Paschal replacement or a very good IOL for Terrion Arnold?
GREAT BY BOTH SIDES. GET A LOCKDOWN CORNER AND THE COWBOYS GET MORE CAPITAL TO FILL MORE HOLES.
Fuck the cowboys
God I love life right now 😭
Excellent pick. A++.
Do you guys think if C. Davis has a good to great season we resign him? Or is he 1 year and done because of the depth we now have and probably want to get them on the field more after next season???
Nobody else worries about 4.5 speed despite his LoS aggressiveness? Literally reminds me of Okudah
His game speed is much better than what his 40 might make you think.
Im excited about him and I trust Brad but everyone said that about Teez Tabor too lol and Okudah
Tabor ran a 4.7 that’s a little different. But you can find anecdotal evidence of players the other direction too. Richard Sherman, Xavier Howard and Joe Haden all ran 4.5 40s and were all very good corners.
Hell yeah I like those comps and I have faith that hes going to be be good!
Oh man... I wonder if something could be different about the Lions from when Tabor and Okudah were drafted. I can't put my finger on it... but I don't think those examples are applicable.
Exactly my reservation
He’s fluid though, so he doesn’t lose much speed when changing directions. That directly compensates for his lack of straight line speed
Ok... and had we not drafted Okudah at 3 and instead got him at 24... we would have loved Okudah too. Okudah was a wonderful prospect, he just got hurt and he got put into a system run by Fatty Patty. Hell, in his last year in Detroit with the new regime, he was turning into a really solid player before he got hurt again. If Terrion Arnold is another Okudah? I'm happy with it, because we actually have a staff that won't go out of their way to fuck with his development because they're bad at their jobs.
Oof. Hope he’s worth it
Damn fucking right he is
Yeah I thought he would be gone at 13. This is insane value.
Re: Brian Branch