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Here are the best odds currently available in the UK, according to Oddschecker. Don't bet unless you have spare money, and if you laughed at that idea, get help.
https://preview.redd.it/r0b1glvtxd3d1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4e5c0e5fce0ce4812f3b292adc7fed489a21ddd5
Because being the "bookies favourite" doesn't make you the actual favourite, the shear number of people betting on England to win brings the odds down. If the odds were fixed on what we're actually ranked at and they had to pay out on that then they'd lose big time, it's all about them minimising their losses on winning bets.
That being said, on paper England appear to have one of the strongest squads in the tournament, however, that's been said before and actually getting it done on the pitch is another matter.
That's fascinating, I didn't realise sheer volume can affect odds, I always thought they were fixed by bookies and changed by bookies. But it toally makes sense. Like a sell off of shares affecting the price. Learned something new today!! Thanks!
Yeah, to an extent, I don’t pretend to know the exact ways that it’s worked out but if you take a horse race and on the morning of the race there’s a lot of bets being put on a certain horse the odds will shorten
Odds are there to control losses/profits.
For example when Leicester won the league at 5000/1 that was a huge win for the bookies. Bookies lose money when the favs win and make a fortune when big outsiders win.
I remember people laughing at the "poor" bookies for paying out 5000/1 to some people. They were popping champagne for the most profitable premiership win returns in their history.
This is not quite true anymore, it is all based on the betfair exchange - regular, fixed odds bookies have to follow the prices on the exchange to avoid arbs (where punters can effectively bet both sides and still make money). The bookies prices are just reflective of what the public think
I work in the industry, and I'm dreading the over-the-top England marketing that's about to hit us. The cringe comments from the pundits and pointless incentives are going to be unbearable.
And we Scots receive the same marketing as the English do and it's never about our own team. Just England, England and England.
And the English wonder why we always support the other team playing England.
Sorted. We have. And we will.
But then, even if Scotland does win Euro 2024. it's unlikely we would be mentioned on the News At Ten, or on any national news in the UK.
If England wins it, we will all hear about it for the next 50 years and all get a bank holiday.
Maybe this is the key. Scotland to have all bank holidays removed but gain one every time England win a major tournament. To be generous, let's include football WC & Euros, Rugby Union WC, and cricket one day WC.
Within 50 years you might be back to 11 bank holidays but after that, you're golden.
That’s not how bookies work, the odds are a result of where the money is going.
If there were millions being put on Albania to win the competition their odds would shorten.
Also English bookies are likely to have England the shortest odds because English people will back their country.
Spot on, the bookies do not care. They are in the market to make money and nothing else, english bookies push England as favourites because the bookies make the most dough when the favourite doesn't win
Yes but that's not the same thing as what you said originally.
A perfectly rounded and balanced book will have no particular selection result in more profit than the others, the bookmaker will make the overround and move on. This is done by disuading selections with more money placed on them by shortening their odds and lengthening others that have been bet less to entice more money onto them.
Of course this rarely actually plays out so perfectly in reality, but a large bookmaker over an event like this should be able to get fairly close to that perfect market and at least get themselves into a position where they'll win money on most, if not all, selections.
It's not a matter of "England being favourites because they make the most dough when the favourites don't win" but purely a product of the liability of that selection in comparison to the other selections in a market.
The bookies know that England fans ALWAYS without fail going to have the majority that say “its coming home”. They’re blinded by our young talent. They will be making a mint off of this and they know it.
Nope. If they wanted to generate more bets on England then they would make their odds longer (i.e. where you stand to win more if they pay out). What you say is the opposite of that.
They are favourites due to a combination of two things:
A. Punters are putting a lot of money of England to win.
B. Bookies think an England win is likely.
Whilst there's some nuance, there isn't very much more to it than that. England are favourites because many people, professional and otherwise, fancy England's chances.
That’s not what I was saying.
Punters would be more likely to place a bet on someone at 10/1 than 5/1
The person I replied to was implying the opposite.
He said the bookies will make England favourites so that more people bet on them. He's got it back to front as bookies odds are driven by betting patterns.
It also makes no sense anyway, as I said before, making someone the favourite (i.e. giving them shorter odds than everyone else) will quite clearly encourage less betting on them, not more.
Its pretty basic stuff, mate.
Point me to the part where he said bookies will fix their odds to make them favourites? It’s not that deep.
Whether they’re short odds or not, folk will still bet on favourites every hour of every day of the week. That’s my point.
it's more about managing risk than who they think will actually win.
Lots of people in England betting on England to win so the odds you get are low.
France are 3.5:1 and Germany are 5:1 because fewer people are betting on them in UK.
If everyone bet on Scotland to win then they'd soon come down from 100:1
Thats where the value is btw chaps, Scotland to win!! 100:1 get on it!!
https://preview.redd.it/pznk7cxild3d1.jpeg?width=2058&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b064c23d13a3975cf44c6d8904bfd9f08b7345f8
Those were the days for Scotland hope.
People don't understand how bookies work, the bookies favourite is also based on how much money comes in for a team, England will get a lot of money out on them especially in England. So the lower odds mean that if England do pull their thumb out their arse and win they won't be paying out as much as if they were realistically priced a little bit higher.
On the contrary if you look at the teams there really isn't much in it so being favourite isn't that ridiculous this time.
You're confusing betting odds with actually likelihood of winning. Bookies adjust odds to tempt people to bet on unlikely outcomes and shorten them when high volume bets come in to avoid paying out too much for that eventuality. Among other things.
France and Germany are favourites to me. I think overall our squad is better than Germany's, but they have certainly improved since the last Euros and have host advantage
We have some good individual players, especially going forward. But I don’t personally think we are ruthless enough as a team to win a major tournament.
Some of it comes down to Southgate, other managers have more experience and game savvyness than him where as I feel it’s rare that Southgate will go for an attack approach.
I’m hopeful this summer that we at least see England play with some freedom, where as we become predictable normally and that’s what limits us. If teams sit deep we struggle to break them down.
I’m optimistic though that Kane, Bellingham, Foden, Rice, Saka, Grealish etc can unlock a defence. We have a good chance as any on paper
They are, but every team is in the euro's for a reason. The niveau is so high in every team playing this tournament so after one unlucky game it could be over for every "favourite".
England always thinks of themselves as a tournament favourite, mostly due to the fact that they hugely overvalue the the level of Premier League (don't get me wrong, it's a great league, but there is lots of quality outside of it too).
I'd say that the biggest favorites are France (again) and Germany (due to the home advantage), closely followed by the likes of England, Portugal and Croatia.
Edit: you wanted the odds, so here they are. Bwin puts France as the favorite by 1/2.75 (in Belgium)
Yet you have English people on this post already saying they aren't the favourites. I don't know why, maybe to appeal to the rest of Europe. I am so confused, what is going on? Why is everyone acting like England wasn't a penalty shoot-out from winning the last Euros and have the most stacked attack?
I wanted England to fail in previous tournaments but honestly this tournament I might hope they win because of everybody gaslighting them into thinking that England is some mediocre team.
For the first time in about 18/20 years I'd make us amongst the favourites. But generally not many of us think actually think we will win it. Tbh this is usually the case. The England =arrogance/overconfident is largely a myth
You really think we give a shit what other nations think of us, to the point of us writing ourselves off on the internet so we'd be more accepted? That'll never happen, because the majority of the world hate us, so what would be the point?
We have at least a top 3 squad at this tournament, but I'd instantly put France and Germany (because hosts) ahead of us. Our record in tournaments is shocking for the talent we have, sort of similar to how Belgium recently had/have a 'golden generation ' that's done fuck all. Yet they're still a good team who constantly beat us.
I put them right after France and Germany, so I definitely wouldn't call them mediocre. They just miss a bit of extra class to truly be considered the absolute favorite.
And sure, they were close last time around, but they also won a few games where they weren't the better side (and got lucky). I just don't see them beating France and I would never underestimate the Germans on their own soil, so that's why I'd put those 2 above England.
Why Germany above England? Germany haven’t had a good run in the Euros in 8 years and WC in 10. - England on the other hand have been consistent in this period.
I don’t think England are going to win but home advantage can only help so much.
Never, ever underestimate the Germans on a tournament, especially when they're the host. You put them up there as favorites and they only go down once you're absolutely sure they're out. Only then are you allowed to breathe again.
I'd normally agree but I think England have an unusually high number of very good players currently. I'm not sure which games you think England were lucky on in 2021?
Defence looks worrying though. I'd put France ahead. Germany have a shot as they are at home, but I still believe people overrate their chances out of fear of looking silly.
Portugal, Spain, Italy, Netherlands could all have a good shout as well
The Denmark Semi-Final was arguably lucky. Although my biased rose tinted glasses thought we had the best of that game.
I recall it being controversial, most non-England fans thought we robbed Denmark because Sterling dived.
I'd call it close, not lucky.
The Sterling penalty was VAR'd to death. I think that was just people who wanted England to lose.
Denmark were good though.
And we had every fucking right to as well since we had a stacked team at that time. Apart from the keeper, every player in our starting XI was world class. Sadly they just couldn't play together as a unit.
In 2004 there really weren't. Greece won it in the end I think. 2006 was also a weak year for the WC. Italy kind of flagged their way through and France were past it.
I don't think it was unreasonable to think England had a good chance at that time, if you were naive to football and England (which I was).
Yep. 2004 and 2006 taught me how to support England.
Formative moments for my generation. Now I understand that supporting England is about knowing that inevitable failure is coming, but hoping nonetheless and enjoying the ride.
I agree with everything you just said except the inclusion of the word “Portugal”. They have Roberto Martinez at the helm… you should know what that feels like😅
I'm an English person and an England fan and we're not favourites at all. France are clear favourites.
On paper, Germany and England are about even in second place.
In practice there is absolutely no way we'll win the tournament. We've never beaten a top side in knockout football away from home.
If I was a betting man, QF exit to Croatia.
Given englands strength in the midfield and attack its easy to see why they’re up there in the favourites to win it debate.
That back line along with the manager should have them like this though:
They don’t have a World Class keeper. Germany have 3! France 2, Holland 1, Italy 2..
Pickford, Trafford etc….no harm but it’s not TerStegen and Donnarumma…
Except Stones, I think I'd say he's a world class CB now. Walker has been world class but is a bit old now, but is still pretty good.
Maguire is erm, well. And Shaw is good but injured.
Man U played really well against City in the final and fair play to them. But in total, the performance of Stones for the last few years has been absolutely top quality in my view.
Walker is not at his best because of age mostly. But was world class at his best and is still very good.
I haven't seen too much of Maguire playing well this season but haven't watched much of United, so I'll take your word for it. He's still someone I'd start for us.
I’m English/Ukrainian and follow both countries. I’m really excited about Ukraine this tournament. I think it’s only of the better squads in a number of years.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but betting odds shift depending on what people are betting on. It's not hard to believe a lot of people in England are betting on England to win it, hence the odds get shorter
Before Euro 2004 we were on with a genuine shout of being favourites but nobody knew at that point that Lampard and Gerrard couldn’t play together or that Scholes would be misused which cost us massively.
There's an awful lot of england have no chance because they always underperform, but then again before 2008 spain hadn't won anything of note.
This is englands best team ever, key players performing overseas for the first time ever. So yeah I back them to do well, why wouldn't you?
Iceland was an embarrassment and deserved, after that it's obvious within the FA that Change was needed and we need to take the approach of other nations.
Build squad harmony, how often do you seen england players fighting or hating each other now, it's important to winning tournaments. Spain were that good because the squad basically played for barca and real
This is the best england squad we've ever seen and if they don't win it, it is what it is. But I'm not wrong to fancy them winning the lot and neither is anyone else
Iceland were very clever, they were inferior on paper vs a very average England side but played/managed it perfectly, no shame in losing to such a side who rose to the occasion. A positive catalyst.
That’ll be down to how many have bet on it as much as anything else, they’ll be heavily backed and the bookies will be fearful of pricing them too long just in case
I’m Scottish, just to preface this comment.
England in my opinion have never had a better opportunity to win a tournament than this one.
The first part to consider is what the other teams around them do and who they face in the next round.
They have the current best player around in Jude Bellingham, and there is real talent right the way through the squad. Declan Rice is as good a 6 as there is, and Phil Foden is a game winner at any point. Kane is deadly, and they have some more than decent full backs, esp right sided.
England lack one thing that the other few nations possess, and that is a truly World Class GK. This isn’t to throw shade at Jordan Pickford, but Germany, France, Spain, Italy do, and each of those nations 2nd choice GKs are also World Class.
The deficiencies in Central Defence can be almost dealt with, if behind Harry Maguire et’al there isn’t a volatile risk taker. Great shot stopper, but not elite.
England will blow one or two teams away. If, and it’s a big if…they get past France in the Semis (it looks like that’s a reasonable scenario)it’ll be the Germans in the final. They are resurgent, they’re gonna scud my team in the opening game and so for me it’s an England Germany final.
Germany are really starting to look scary good. Tournaments can be weird though.
Favourites, I could see why. For me….ooooft.
Too close to call. Germany, France Holland and England…
IF not France, prob England.
Get the bets on!
Tbh France and England are favourites but when you look at the nations league last year, yes we all don’t care about it but the teams play their strongest squads as it’s tough teams. France lost to Denmark and Croatia and England lost to Germany Italy and Hungary so I don’t know anymore
No defense, no GK, questionable coach, no pure striker but a great midfield and attackers line up
The reason why England is favourite is that Spain has no striker and questionable defenders, Germany is young, Belgium is old, Portugal is split between a too old Cristiano and a great younger line up, and France has an out of form Mbappe and multiple injured.
I’d look beyond Southgate for England not being able to win vs Croatia/Italy/France as much as I dislike a lot of his in-game management it boils down to the players on the pitch lacking killer/winning instinct vs teams that handle the pressure slightly better, not a lot in it in any of those matches though but enough to leave England behind.
To minimise risk if we actually win it?
Odds are usually based on where the money is going anyway, not necessarily a logical calculation of our chances of winning
Plus on paper we’re one of the strongest squads - and finalists last time around.
It’s not a stretch
Bookmakers don't tell you who is most likely to win. They tell you who is most likely be bet on winning. If you visit an English bookmakers in the warm-up to a major tournament then you're likely to see odds that favour England more than they should do. If you go to a French bookmakers then they'll slightly favour france. Same with most countries. Welsh bookmakers won't be favouring Wales though
When do the "favourites" ever win?
Don't get me wrong, as an England supporter I'm optimistic with our chances. But not because PaddyPower says we should be.
I‘ve never felt a national team being this overrated than this England squad. And I don‘t want to hate on them.
They have very nice players and talents. But the problem is most of these talents play in the front. And you got more players there than free positions. Some may won‘t be able to play on their best position.
And their defense is just so overlooked. It‘s just don‘t see this defense being good enough to win such a long and stacked tournament. Defense is too important.
England are always the same; tough it out with better teams but always get edged out when it matters most, you can’t blame managers/poor game management entirely either, it’s innate to the English psyche of the last 50+ years and the lack of individuals on the pitch who truly raise the team to be winners. England should be proud they have left the wilderness years to become a good team again but they are not nor have they ever been honest favourites for any tournament and that’s ok. The premier league sells the English an arrogance that stems from marketing and pr, it is a decent league but Germany/Spain/Italy leagues achieve more with less money and breed a broader footballing culture that the best European footballers are drawn to from weaker domestic leagues. It is good to see more English players in Europe, that is the key to true international growth.
France/Belgium/Portugal/Spain/Netherlands should all be above England, I would put England at the same level as Italy/Croatia and a historically weaker German team at home.
As an England fan who's been watching football over 40 years, I can assure you we are no chance we are the tournament favourites.
England always always always fails in tournaments. We sometimes progress to later stages, but this has *only* happened when playing football in England. World Cup 66, Euor 96 and the last Euros.
I have never seen England knock out of tournament football (*when playing abroad*) against any of Portugal, Germany, Spain, France, Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Croatia, Germany. You can also add Brazil and Argentina into this if considering teams from outside of Europe.
It has simply put never fucking happened. We have NEVER eliminated any of these teams when playing abroad. Not once.
I don't see it happening now despite having Bellingham, Walker, Rice, Kane, Foden - etc. We always fuck it up. I'm tired of acting all hard but always ending up being shit and losing big games.
I certainly don't see it happening three times from QF, SF and a final.
If we get to the semi-final I'll be fucking stunned.
England always finds a way to fuck it up VS these teams when playing abroad, and that is a fact.
For me, seeing England go out of an international tournament is the most painful experience there is in football.
There's nothing wrong with a little positivity, even it makes it hurt more when the inevitable happens.
>We sometimes progress to later stages, but this has *only* happened when playing football in England. World Cup 66, Euor 96 and the last Euros.
England have reached the latter stages in tournaments held away from home on three occasions. Rome 1968 (3rd), Rome 1990 (4th), Russia 2018 (4th).
England reached the final in 2021 which was at home, but the quarter final against Ukraine was held in Italy, so it's not accurate to say that the tournament was solely held at home. Italy played all of their group games in Rome, Germany played all of their group games in Munich, and Spain played all of their group games in Seville. It was an odd tournament, but not one played exclusively in England.
>It has simply put never fucking happened. We have NEVER eliminated any of these teams when playing abroad. Not once.
* Spain - England beat Spain 3-1 in 1968 Euros. Home tie was at Wembley (1-0) but the away tie was in Madrid (2-1 England). Eliminated. Beat them 2-1 in 1980 Euros. Eliminated (though England were also eliminated from that group).
* Belgium - England beat Belgium 1-0 in 1990 World Cup, knockout match. Eliminated
* Argentina - England beat them 1-0 in 2002 World Cup, and in 1962 World Cup 3-1. Eliminated (twice). Incidentally, England's World Cup record against Argentina is played 5, won 3, lost 1, drawn 1.
* France - England beat them 3-1 in 1982 World Cup. They weren't eliminated though. In tournaments, England have won 2, lost 1, and drawn 2 against France.
* Croatia - England beat them in 4-2 in the 2004 Euros. Eliminated
* Germany - England beat them in 2000 Euros 1-0. Both teams Eliminated from group
So really, the only teams that you can say that England haven't beaten abroad are Brazil, Netherlands and Portugal. And to be fair, England beat the Netherlands 4-1 in 96 and beat Portugal in the 1966 World Cup Semi-Finals.
The main difference now is in previous tournaments we were surrounded by great sides, but there really arent any in this tournament other than France.
The likes of Spain, The Netherlands, and Italy are shadows of their former selves and I think we genuinely have a much stronger side than they do, which could never be said previously.
We are always surrounded by great international sides in Europe, that is an oversight to think otherwise. Look at the last Euro winners, Italy with very middling players whose cohesive, drilled form grew in the tournament and they deservedly won even if their form dropped by the final. Or an inferior netherlands on paper who fought back to really challenge the eventual world cup winners as much as France in 2022 or a haphazard Portugal in 2016 who took the tournament or a super smart Greece way back in 2004. You can’t underestimate just how much (weak on paper) European international sides rise to the occasion.
You're just being an arse and have no interest in the here and now, its all we've not done this, we've not done that. Focus on the squad and tournament in front.
Defo one of the first to be celebrating telling all your close ones I told you so aswell when england either win it or don't. If football was all about history celtic would be the greatest team on the planet, surely them or aston villa will win the champions league next season because they've done it before?
This kind of England fan does my nut in. I understand what you mean but just enjoy the tournament and back the boys? It’s just constant negativity like the press at home.
I’m not saying that’s right either but JESUS you come across as so miserable. All I’m saying mate is lighten up a bit. I can’t imagine watching the game with someone like you.
Do I think we’re going to win? Probably not. Do I think it’s still one of our strongest chances? Yeah. Am I going to enjoy it with my boys and a pint no matter what? Fuck yeah.
I don't blame you for thinking this way. I am an Italian supporter and England lost one of the biggest football matches of all time last tourney. The team is definitely much better than before. Seeing England in a finals was shocking tbh.
So many letdowns, so I understand your feelings. I would not put them as a favourites though. It's England, just watch and see what happens...maybe they finally win, but I still would bet against it
The bookmakers always favor England so that means nothing and you should never bet money on them. However this time they actually have the best squad together with France.
The last two tournaments they were pretty impressive only losing in the final vs Italy and then 1:2 vs France in 2022. Both were close games. So objectively speaking they are a very strong team at the moment. Germany, Portugal and Spain have their own question marks and issues so I really don't think you can rank England lower than top 2 in terms of odds.
France by a good margin. The only people that can defeat the French are indeed the French whether that be a squad revolt or whatever. England have neither the width or quality at the back.
England dominated France in the World Cup though it was only because of a shite ref and the rarity of a Kane miss we lost the game. Regardless of what you say, England could beat France man for man.
It’s baffles me how people think progress doesn’t get made.
England are one of the most experienced squads in the tournament as they have had the same manager for 8 years now and the majority of the starting 11 has played in at least 2 major tournaments, nerves shouldn’t be issue, pure bad luck has stopped England in the last 3 major Tournaments, they very easily could have won the last 2 if it was not for penalties, I’d say England win it this time, a very easy group with a very easy run to at least the semis
France and Portugal are ahead of England in my opinion. I’d say our national team is probably on par with Germany. Croatia and Belgium are also a shout. I don’t think anyone out of those 6 will win it
I can't believe people put teams like Belgium and Croatia ahead of Italy. I am not sure how Italy will perform, but they have quite a bit of talent on paper at each part of the field. Will be interesting to see what they do, but I wouldn't bet against them and I would take them over any of those teams.
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France certainly the favourite
Here are the best odds currently available in the UK, according to Oddschecker. Don't bet unless you have spare money, and if you laughed at that idea, get help. https://preview.redd.it/r0b1glvtxd3d1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4e5c0e5fce0ce4812f3b292adc7fed489a21ddd5
Netherlands looking like good value?
Historic underperformers. That’s why it’s so high. But a lot of people are tipping them for Euro 2024
I guess the same goes for Belgium...
From The looks of that Italy are value they know how to grind out the wins.
Agreed.
Portugal doesn’t seem to be a bad bet. Obviously not the strongest squad but they’ve got a puncher’s chance in the knockouts.
Because being the "bookies favourite" doesn't make you the actual favourite, the shear number of people betting on England to win brings the odds down. If the odds were fixed on what we're actually ranked at and they had to pay out on that then they'd lose big time, it's all about them minimising their losses on winning bets. That being said, on paper England appear to have one of the strongest squads in the tournament, however, that's been said before and actually getting it done on the pitch is another matter.
That's fascinating, I didn't realise sheer volume can affect odds, I always thought they were fixed by bookies and changed by bookies. But it toally makes sense. Like a sell off of shares affecting the price. Learned something new today!! Thanks!
Yeah, to an extent, I don’t pretend to know the exact ways that it’s worked out but if you take a horse race and on the morning of the race there’s a lot of bets being put on a certain horse the odds will shorten
Odds are there to control losses/profits. For example when Leicester won the league at 5000/1 that was a huge win for the bookies. Bookies lose money when the favs win and make a fortune when big outsiders win. I remember people laughing at the "poor" bookies for paying out 5000/1 to some people. They were popping champagne for the most profitable premiership win returns in their history.
Good team on paper, shame the match was played on grass….
This is not quite true anymore, it is all based on the betfair exchange - regular, fixed odds bookies have to follow the prices on the exchange to avoid arbs (where punters can effectively bet both sides and still make money). The bookies prices are just reflective of what the public think
English bookmakers will convince you we are favourites to generate more bets. Likely we won't win it so they make lots of money.
I work in the industry, and I'm dreading the over-the-top England marketing that's about to hit us. The cringe comments from the pundits and pointless incentives are going to be unbearable.
But.... Its coming home...?
And we Scots receive the same marketing as the English do and it's never about our own team. Just England, England and England. And the English wonder why we always support the other team playing England.
Just get a squad capable of winning then, problem solved.
Sorted. We have. And we will. But then, even if Scotland does win Euro 2024. it's unlikely we would be mentioned on the News At Ten, or on any national news in the UK. If England wins it, we will all hear about it for the next 50 years and all get a bank holiday.
Maybe this is the key. Scotland to have all bank holidays removed but gain one every time England win a major tournament. To be generous, let's include football WC & Euros, Rugby Union WC, and cricket one day WC. Within 50 years you might be back to 11 bank holidays but after that, you're golden.
That’s not how bookies work, the odds are a result of where the money is going. If there were millions being put on Albania to win the competition their odds would shorten. Also English bookies are likely to have England the shortest odds because English people will back their country.
Spot on, the bookies do not care. They are in the market to make money and nothing else, english bookies push England as favourites because the bookies make the most dough when the favourite doesn't win
Also not the case, and that's not how bookmaking works
More people bet on the favourite compared with others, that's why the more money that gets put on shortens the odds
Yes but that's not the same thing as what you said originally. A perfectly rounded and balanced book will have no particular selection result in more profit than the others, the bookmaker will make the overround and move on. This is done by disuading selections with more money placed on them by shortening their odds and lengthening others that have been bet less to entice more money onto them. Of course this rarely actually plays out so perfectly in reality, but a large bookmaker over an event like this should be able to get fairly close to that perfect market and at least get themselves into a position where they'll win money on most, if not all, selections. It's not a matter of "England being favourites because they make the most dough when the favourites don't win" but purely a product of the liability of that selection in comparison to the other selections in a market.
That's not how bookies work. Bookies cover bets, they don't gamble
The bookies know that England fans ALWAYS without fail going to have the majority that say “its coming home”. They’re blinded by our young talent. They will be making a mint off of this and they know it.
You know that “it’s coming home” is self-deprecation right?
I say it’s coming home, because *saying* it’s coming home is free. I never bet money on England to win.
A wise man.
A fool and his money are easily parted!
Exactly that. Media will push the narrative, get people excited and get more people lumping on England therefore shortening the odds
Should also note that most tabloids and sports papers have paid special promotionals or even own their own betting companies.
And it also minimises the payouts if England do win it
Nope. If they wanted to generate more bets on England then they would make their odds longer (i.e. where you stand to win more if they pay out). What you say is the opposite of that. They are favourites due to a combination of two things: A. Punters are putting a lot of money of England to win. B. Bookies think an England win is likely. Whilst there's some nuance, there isn't very much more to it than that. England are favourites because many people, professional and otherwise, fancy England's chances.
Longer odds are what draws betters in, not shorter ones.....
Aye because no one ever puts a bet on a favourite mate…
That’s not what I was saying. Punters would be more likely to place a bet on someone at 10/1 than 5/1 The person I replied to was implying the opposite.
That’s not what he said either. He said England will be hyped up and people will bet on them. Which is absolutely spot on.
He said the bookies will make England favourites so that more people bet on them. He's got it back to front as bookies odds are driven by betting patterns. It also makes no sense anyway, as I said before, making someone the favourite (i.e. giving them shorter odds than everyone else) will quite clearly encourage less betting on them, not more. Its pretty basic stuff, mate.
Point me to the part where he said bookies will fix their odds to make them favourites? It’s not that deep. Whether they’re short odds or not, folk will still bet on favourites every hour of every day of the week. That’s my point.
"English bookmakers will convince you we are favourites to generate more bets".
Marketing? Doesn’t mean they’re fixing odds mate.
England are favourites everywhere
it's more about managing risk than who they think will actually win. Lots of people in England betting on England to win so the odds you get are low. France are 3.5:1 and Germany are 5:1 because fewer people are betting on them in UK. If everyone bet on Scotland to win then they'd soon come down from 100:1 Thats where the value is btw chaps, Scotland to win!! 100:1 get on it!!
https://preview.redd.it/pznk7cxild3d1.jpeg?width=2058&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b064c23d13a3975cf44c6d8904bfd9f08b7345f8 Those were the days for Scotland hope.
lost to Peru, drew with Iran, beat Holland. Funny old game
People don't understand how bookies work, the bookies favourite is also based on how much money comes in for a team, England will get a lot of money out on them especially in England. So the lower odds mean that if England do pull their thumb out their arse and win they won't be paying out as much as if they were realistically priced a little bit higher. On the contrary if you look at the teams there really isn't much in it so being favourite isn't that ridiculous this time.
France are favourites. Let’s not be silly now.
You're confusing betting odds with actually likelihood of winning. Bookies adjust odds to tempt people to bet on unlikely outcomes and shorten them when high volume bets come in to avoid paying out too much for that eventuality. Among other things.
Im not confusing anything. France are favourites. The bookies can say whatever.
France and Germany are favourites to me. I think overall our squad is better than Germany's, but they have certainly improved since the last Euros and have host advantage
We have some good individual players, especially going forward. But I don’t personally think we are ruthless enough as a team to win a major tournament. Some of it comes down to Southgate, other managers have more experience and game savvyness than him where as I feel it’s rare that Southgate will go for an attack approach. I’m hopeful this summer that we at least see England play with some freedom, where as we become predictable normally and that’s what limits us. If teams sit deep we struggle to break them down. I’m optimistic though that Kane, Bellingham, Foden, Rice, Saka, Grealish etc can unlock a defence. We have a good chance as any on paper
They are, but every team is in the euro's for a reason. The niveau is so high in every team playing this tournament so after one unlucky game it could be over for every "favourite".
England always thinks of themselves as a tournament favourite, mostly due to the fact that they hugely overvalue the the level of Premier League (don't get me wrong, it's a great league, but there is lots of quality outside of it too). I'd say that the biggest favorites are France (again) and Germany (due to the home advantage), closely followed by the likes of England, Portugal and Croatia. Edit: you wanted the odds, so here they are. Bwin puts France as the favorite by 1/2.75 (in Belgium)
Yet you have English people on this post already saying they aren't the favourites. I don't know why, maybe to appeal to the rest of Europe. I am so confused, what is going on? Why is everyone acting like England wasn't a penalty shoot-out from winning the last Euros and have the most stacked attack? I wanted England to fail in previous tournaments but honestly this tournament I might hope they win because of everybody gaslighting them into thinking that England is some mediocre team.
For the first time in about 18/20 years I'd make us amongst the favourites. But generally not many of us think actually think we will win it. Tbh this is usually the case. The England =arrogance/overconfident is largely a myth
You really think we give a shit what other nations think of us, to the point of us writing ourselves off on the internet so we'd be more accepted? That'll never happen, because the majority of the world hate us, so what would be the point? We have at least a top 3 squad at this tournament, but I'd instantly put France and Germany (because hosts) ahead of us. Our record in tournaments is shocking for the talent we have, sort of similar to how Belgium recently had/have a 'golden generation ' that's done fuck all. Yet they're still a good team who constantly beat us.
I put them right after France and Germany, so I definitely wouldn't call them mediocre. They just miss a bit of extra class to truly be considered the absolute favorite. And sure, they were close last time around, but they also won a few games where they weren't the better side (and got lucky). I just don't see them beating France and I would never underestimate the Germans on their own soil, so that's why I'd put those 2 above England.
Why Germany above England? Germany haven’t had a good run in the Euros in 8 years and WC in 10. - England on the other hand have been consistent in this period. I don’t think England are going to win but home advantage can only help so much.
Never, ever underestimate the Germans on a tournament, especially when they're the host. You put them up there as favorites and they only go down once you're absolutely sure they're out. Only then are you allowed to breathe again.
Fair enough, in principle I agree; but it’s a shame they’ve been overestimated for nearly a decade.
I'd normally agree but I think England have an unusually high number of very good players currently. I'm not sure which games you think England were lucky on in 2021? Defence looks worrying though. I'd put France ahead. Germany have a shot as they are at home, but I still believe people overrate their chances out of fear of looking silly. Portugal, Spain, Italy, Netherlands could all have a good shout as well
The Denmark Semi-Final was arguably lucky. Although my biased rose tinted glasses thought we had the best of that game. I recall it being controversial, most non-England fans thought we robbed Denmark because Sterling dived.
I'd call it close, not lucky. The Sterling penalty was VAR'd to death. I think that was just people who wanted England to lose. Denmark were good though.
They were, it was a good game played in good faith, at least from my perspective.
This is a myth. The last time England fans thought we were amongst the favourites was WC 2006
And we had every fucking right to as well since we had a stacked team at that time. Apart from the keeper, every player in our starting XI was world class. Sadly they just couldn't play together as a unit.
And there were more stacked teams.
In 2004 there really weren't. Greece won it in the end I think. 2006 was also a weak year for the WC. Italy kind of flagged their way through and France were past it. I don't think it was unreasonable to think England had a good chance at that time, if you were naive to football and England (which I was).
You lot are deluded:
Yep. 2004 and 2006 taught me how to support England. Formative moments for my generation. Now I understand that supporting England is about knowing that inevitable failure is coming, but hoping nonetheless and enjoying the ride.
I agree with everything you just said except the inclusion of the word “Portugal”. They have Roberto Martinez at the helm… you should know what that feels like😅
Croatia? Nah.
I'm an English person and an England fan and we're not favourites at all. France are clear favourites. On paper, Germany and England are about even in second place. In practice there is absolutely no way we'll win the tournament. We've never beaten a top side in knockout football away from home. If I was a betting man, QF exit to Croatia.
Given englands strength in the midfield and attack its easy to see why they’re up there in the favourites to win it debate. That back line along with the manager should have them like this though: 
They don’t have a World Class keeper. Germany have 3! France 2, Holland 1, Italy 2.. Pickford, Trafford etc….no harm but it’s not TerStegen and Donnarumma…
Honestly I'm more worried about the defenders than the GK. Pickford has generally been good for England
Depends how well we do defensively. We’ve got forward players and midfielders who can score goals for fun, but we’re always pretty shaky at the back.
We only conceded 2 goals at Euro 2020 lol I agree the defence is the weak point though. Just think it's funny to say we're "always" shaky at the back
Think most of the defenders have declined, plus shaw might not be fit
Except Stones, I think I'd say he's a world class CB now. Walker has been world class but is a bit old now, but is still pretty good. Maguire is erm, well. And Shaw is good but injured.
Did you watch Stones and Walker in the FA cup final? Both didn’t look amazing, Maguire has actually been decent this season to be fair
Man U played really well against City in the final and fair play to them. But in total, the performance of Stones for the last few years has been absolutely top quality in my view. Walker is not at his best because of age mostly. But was world class at his best and is still very good. I haven't seen too much of Maguire playing well this season but haven't watched much of United, so I'll take your word for it. He's still someone I'd start for us.
England squad has a great chances now and they are really one of favourites. (Kane, Bellingham, Foden...)
I’m English/Ukrainian and follow both countries. I’m really excited about Ukraine this tournament. I think it’s only of the better squads in a number of years.
Absolutely agree. Let's see their performance
I think it’s about right. If we played the tournament 4 times I reckon we’d win it once for sure
Correct me if I'm wrong, but betting odds shift depending on what people are betting on. It's not hard to believe a lot of people in England are betting on England to win it, hence the odds get shorter
Bellingham,Kane,Foden, Saka, Rice all playing really well. Bellingham is la liga player of the year, Kane has scored a shit ton of goals
We’re always favourites with English bookies because that’s where the most money goes so it defluctuates the odds.
I’ve never seen England as favourites in a major tournament. Ever.
Before Euro 2004 we were on with a genuine shout of being favourites but nobody knew at that point that Lampard and Gerrard couldn’t play together or that Scholes would be misused which cost us massively.
I have Germany to take it at home, but France are the favourites I feel. England are tipped to be semi-finalists
I think we are about as likely as France, albeit you have to give them the tiniest edge due to their big game experience
There's an awful lot of england have no chance because they always underperform, but then again before 2008 spain hadn't won anything of note. This is englands best team ever, key players performing overseas for the first time ever. So yeah I back them to do well, why wouldn't you?
Genuinely can't think of any tournament where England underperformed. 2016 losing to Iceland maybe, but the squad was rubbish.
Iceland was an embarrassment and deserved, after that it's obvious within the FA that Change was needed and we need to take the approach of other nations. Build squad harmony, how often do you seen england players fighting or hating each other now, it's important to winning tournaments. Spain were that good because the squad basically played for barca and real This is the best england squad we've ever seen and if they don't win it, it is what it is. But I'm not wrong to fancy them winning the lot and neither is anyone else
Iceland were very clever, they were inferior on paper vs a very average England side but played/managed it perfectly, no shame in losing to such a side who rose to the occasion. A positive catalyst.
That’ll be down to how many have bet on it as much as anything else, they’ll be heavily backed and the bookies will be fearful of pricing them too long just in case
https://preview.redd.it/59m01bgfff3d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=163eddec2728085b5c4969d5a8bdf396d515229a Betfair in Ireland
I’m Scottish, just to preface this comment. England in my opinion have never had a better opportunity to win a tournament than this one. The first part to consider is what the other teams around them do and who they face in the next round. They have the current best player around in Jude Bellingham, and there is real talent right the way through the squad. Declan Rice is as good a 6 as there is, and Phil Foden is a game winner at any point. Kane is deadly, and they have some more than decent full backs, esp right sided. England lack one thing that the other few nations possess, and that is a truly World Class GK. This isn’t to throw shade at Jordan Pickford, but Germany, France, Spain, Italy do, and each of those nations 2nd choice GKs are also World Class. The deficiencies in Central Defence can be almost dealt with, if behind Harry Maguire et’al there isn’t a volatile risk taker. Great shot stopper, but not elite. England will blow one or two teams away. If, and it’s a big if…they get past France in the Semis (it looks like that’s a reasonable scenario)it’ll be the Germans in the final. They are resurgent, they’re gonna scud my team in the opening game and so for me it’s an England Germany final. Germany are really starting to look scary good. Tournaments can be weird though. Favourites, I could see why. For me….ooooft. Too close to call. Germany, France Holland and England… IF not France, prob England. Get the bets on!
Mbappe is still the best player in the world
Holland hahaha
We’ll stick a pin in this, they’re a good side. I’m also Scottish, so you can argue I know eff all💚✌️🏴
Tbh France and England are favourites but when you look at the nations league last year, yes we all don’t care about it but the teams play their strongest squads as it’s tough teams. France lost to Denmark and Croatia and England lost to Germany Italy and Hungary so I don’t know anymore
UK bookies have to make them favorite for the sheer amount of money put on them
No defense, no GK, questionable coach, no pure striker but a great midfield and attackers line up The reason why England is favourite is that Spain has no striker and questionable defenders, Germany is young, Belgium is old, Portugal is split between a too old Cristiano and a great younger line up, and France has an out of form Mbappe and multiple injured.
We should be favourites if you look at the squads. Doubt we'll win it though.
Only if you glance over the defence.
Bookies are wrong, France is favourite, their odds are damn wrong
More chance of Scotland winning it
England will never win anything, end of discussion
If not for Gareth Fucking Westgate then yeah probably
If you just look at the squad on paper we do stand a good chance. But I feel like these bookmakers are forgetting Southgate is absolutely useless
I’d look beyond Southgate for England not being able to win vs Croatia/Italy/France as much as I dislike a lot of his in-game management it boils down to the players on the pitch lacking killer/winning instinct vs teams that handle the pressure slightly better, not a lot in it in any of those matches though but enough to leave England behind.
I think a better bet would be on England to fuck it up and go out in the group stages.
Nope. Another team will win.
For me any national teams not in the finals of an European Cup become favourite of an Euro. That is to say England and France are favourites.
To minimise risk if we actually win it? Odds are usually based on where the money is going anyway, not necessarily a logical calculation of our chances of winning Plus on paper we’re one of the strongest squads - and finalists last time around. It’s not a stretch
Bookmakers don't tell you who is most likely to win. They tell you who is most likely be bet on winning. If you visit an English bookmakers in the warm-up to a major tournament then you're likely to see odds that favour England more than they should do. If you go to a French bookmakers then they'll slightly favour france. Same with most countries. Welsh bookmakers won't be favouring Wales though
I'm assuming we wouldn't be favourites in other countries?
When do the "favourites" ever win? Don't get me wrong, as an England supporter I'm optimistic with our chances. But not because PaddyPower says we should be.
I‘ve never felt a national team being this overrated than this England squad. And I don‘t want to hate on them. They have very nice players and talents. But the problem is most of these talents play in the front. And you got more players there than free positions. Some may won‘t be able to play on their best position. And their defense is just so overlooked. It‘s just don‘t see this defense being good enough to win such a long and stacked tournament. Defense is too important.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ThreeLions/s/HEaseJIWbM[England Pp advert] Just seen this on another community at thought it fitting to share here XD
England are always the same; tough it out with better teams but always get edged out when it matters most, you can’t blame managers/poor game management entirely either, it’s innate to the English psyche of the last 50+ years and the lack of individuals on the pitch who truly raise the team to be winners. England should be proud they have left the wilderness years to become a good team again but they are not nor have they ever been honest favourites for any tournament and that’s ok. The premier league sells the English an arrogance that stems from marketing and pr, it is a decent league but Germany/Spain/Italy leagues achieve more with less money and breed a broader footballing culture that the best European footballers are drawn to from weaker domestic leagues. It is good to see more English players in Europe, that is the key to true international growth. France/Belgium/Portugal/Spain/Netherlands should all be above England, I would put England at the same level as Italy/Croatia and a historically weaker German team at home.
As an England fan who's been watching football over 40 years, I can assure you we are no chance we are the tournament favourites. England always always always fails in tournaments. We sometimes progress to later stages, but this has *only* happened when playing football in England. World Cup 66, Euor 96 and the last Euros. I have never seen England knock out of tournament football (*when playing abroad*) against any of Portugal, Germany, Spain, France, Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Croatia, Germany. You can also add Brazil and Argentina into this if considering teams from outside of Europe. It has simply put never fucking happened. We have NEVER eliminated any of these teams when playing abroad. Not once. I don't see it happening now despite having Bellingham, Walker, Rice, Kane, Foden - etc. We always fuck it up. I'm tired of acting all hard but always ending up being shit and losing big games. I certainly don't see it happening three times from QF, SF and a final. If we get to the semi-final I'll be fucking stunned. England always finds a way to fuck it up VS these teams when playing abroad, and that is a fact.
Well this is cheerful
It’s right though…
For me, seeing England go out of an international tournament is the most painful experience there is in football. There's nothing wrong with a little positivity, even it makes it hurt more when the inevitable happens.
We live in hope! But I pretty much agree with all of that. We have some great attacking talent but our defence concerns me.
>We sometimes progress to later stages, but this has *only* happened when playing football in England. World Cup 66, Euor 96 and the last Euros. England have reached the latter stages in tournaments held away from home on three occasions. Rome 1968 (3rd), Rome 1990 (4th), Russia 2018 (4th). England reached the final in 2021 which was at home, but the quarter final against Ukraine was held in Italy, so it's not accurate to say that the tournament was solely held at home. Italy played all of their group games in Rome, Germany played all of their group games in Munich, and Spain played all of their group games in Seville. It was an odd tournament, but not one played exclusively in England. >It has simply put never fucking happened. We have NEVER eliminated any of these teams when playing abroad. Not once. * Spain - England beat Spain 3-1 in 1968 Euros. Home tie was at Wembley (1-0) but the away tie was in Madrid (2-1 England). Eliminated. Beat them 2-1 in 1980 Euros. Eliminated (though England were also eliminated from that group). * Belgium - England beat Belgium 1-0 in 1990 World Cup, knockout match. Eliminated * Argentina - England beat them 1-0 in 2002 World Cup, and in 1962 World Cup 3-1. Eliminated (twice). Incidentally, England's World Cup record against Argentina is played 5, won 3, lost 1, drawn 1. * France - England beat them 3-1 in 1982 World Cup. They weren't eliminated though. In tournaments, England have won 2, lost 1, and drawn 2 against France. * Croatia - England beat them in 4-2 in the 2004 Euros. Eliminated * Germany - England beat them in 2000 Euros 1-0. Both teams Eliminated from group So really, the only teams that you can say that England haven't beaten abroad are Brazil, Netherlands and Portugal. And to be fair, England beat the Netherlands 4-1 in 96 and beat Portugal in the 1966 World Cup Semi-Finals.
The main difference now is in previous tournaments we were surrounded by great sides, but there really arent any in this tournament other than France. The likes of Spain, The Netherlands, and Italy are shadows of their former selves and I think we genuinely have a much stronger side than they do, which could never be said previously.
We are always surrounded by great international sides in Europe, that is an oversight to think otherwise. Look at the last Euro winners, Italy with very middling players whose cohesive, drilled form grew in the tournament and they deservedly won even if their form dropped by the final. Or an inferior netherlands on paper who fought back to really challenge the eventual world cup winners as much as France in 2022 or a haphazard Portugal in 2016 who took the tournament or a super smart Greece way back in 2004. You can’t underestimate just how much (weak on paper) European international sides rise to the occasion.
Bollocks. We got to the semis of the world cup IN Russia 2018. Definitely not home soil.
Who did we eliminate to get there though? Did you read what I wrote?
Yes, it was a load of fictional nonsense.
Which bit isn't true?
You're just being an arse and have no interest in the here and now, its all we've not done this, we've not done that. Focus on the squad and tournament in front. Defo one of the first to be celebrating telling all your close ones I told you so aswell when england either win it or don't. If football was all about history celtic would be the greatest team on the planet, surely them or aston villa will win the champions league next season because they've done it before?
Why on Earth would Celtic be the greatest team on the planet?
Yup.
This kind of England fan does my nut in. I understand what you mean but just enjoy the tournament and back the boys? It’s just constant negativity like the press at home.
Actually the bigger problem is over stating and building up expectations way beyond what they should be.
I’m not saying that’s right either but JESUS you come across as so miserable. All I’m saying mate is lighten up a bit. I can’t imagine watching the game with someone like you. Do I think we’re going to win? Probably not. Do I think it’s still one of our strongest chances? Yeah. Am I going to enjoy it with my boys and a pint no matter what? Fuck yeah.
Yes, I agree.
I don't blame you for thinking this way. I am an Italian supporter and England lost one of the biggest football matches of all time last tourney. The team is definitely much better than before. Seeing England in a finals was shocking tbh. So many letdowns, so I understand your feelings. I would not put them as a favourites though. It's England, just watch and see what happens...maybe they finally win, but I still would bet against it
You are confusing an historical record with a future prediction. Although I do believe there is a psychological barrier at play.
The bookmakers always favor England so that means nothing and you should never bet money on them. However this time they actually have the best squad together with France. The last two tournaments they were pretty impressive only losing in the final vs Italy and then 1:2 vs France in 2022. Both were close games. So objectively speaking they are a very strong team at the moment. Germany, Portugal and Spain have their own question marks and issues so I really don't think you can rank England lower than top 2 in terms of odds.
England on paper look like favourites. What they never factor in is the fact we always lose.
France by a good margin. The only people that can defeat the French are indeed the French whether that be a squad revolt or whatever. England have neither the width or quality at the back.
England dominated France in the World Cup though it was only because of a shite ref and the rarity of a Kane miss we lost the game. Regardless of what you say, England could beat France man for man. It’s baffles me how people think progress doesn’t get made.
England are one of the most experienced squads in the tournament as they have had the same manager for 8 years now and the majority of the starting 11 has played in at least 2 major tournaments, nerves shouldn’t be issue, pure bad luck has stopped England in the last 3 major Tournaments, they very easily could have won the last 2 if it was not for penalties, I’d say England win it this time, a very easy group with a very easy run to at least the semis
France and Portugal are ahead of England in my opinion. I’d say our national team is probably on par with Germany. Croatia and Belgium are also a shout. I don’t think anyone out of those 6 will win it
I can't believe people put teams like Belgium and Croatia ahead of Italy. I am not sure how Italy will perform, but they have quite a bit of talent on paper at each part of the field. Will be interesting to see what they do, but I wouldn't bet against them and I would take them over any of those teams.
>I can't believe people put teams like Belgium and Croatia ahead of Italy Here is a TIL. Croatia has never lost against Italy.
Lolz it's never ever coming home!!
How many times have you posted this exact comment now?
Lolz it's never ever ever coming home!!
UKconservative lolz
Yea bunch of cunts. And what?? 