the French republic is built upon hypocrisy. it preaches equality, yet mercilessly punished anyone who spoke languages other than French (such as breton, corsican and Occitan) as a threat and banned use of said languages, because of what could be best described as cultural chauvinism.
the same Republic preaches liberty, yet the laws it created to separate church and state were built to supress french Catholicism, as the lawmakers of the third republic believed the catholic church was part of a royalist conspiracy to overthrow the republic (this scandal showed the twisted lengths officials would go in order to satisfy their paranoia: [Affair of the Cards - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affair_of_the_Cards)) and now those same laws are used to harass Muslims.
it preaches fraternity, yet send thousands to their deaths in futile colonial wars.
french democracy is beautiful and disgusting at the same time
Some people in this thread really believe that frech people magically came under influence of evil far-right (sic) putinist propaganda (sic) in the recent two years for absolutely no reason. And that they have moral obligation to vote for the same parties and people who were in charge for well above few decades.
Sometimes electorates get frustrated, and sometimes this frustration is vented through voting for parties that claim to resolve their issues even if they are/are labeled as xenophobic, populist, dangerous to democracy etc.
I know, this is a controversial idea, but maybe 1/3 of french voters aren't evil crypto-hitlers and they just have need for change that other parties cannot provide?
Seems like i was quite a bit wrong on withdrawals.
122 NFP, 70ENS and 8 other candidates withdrew.
So even when RN wasn't first but Resemble someone from NFP withdrew.
Same goes for ENS candidates running against LFI.
106 three-way ties left. 3 quadruples down from 5.
[2024 legislative elections: who will be a candidate in the second round after the withdrawals? Track the count (lemonde.fr)](https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2024/07/02/legislatives-2024-qui-sera-candidat-au-second-tour-apres-les-desistements-suivez-le-decompte_6245837_4355771.html)
Let's see if that will backfire at later elections
The whole point being that if they're third on the first count, they've virtually no chance of success, so in terms of blocking the RN, it doesn't matter who actually topped the poll.
Of course, but it looks bad to help someone win who you're completely opposed to on a political and ideological stance with your withdraw.
The worst offender is Aveyron 2nd. All three candidates above 30% and instead of trying to gain 4% or 5% to win the seat, you drop out. That is a fucking loser mentality and I would never ever vote for that person again in my life.
Aveyron usually votes for the right. If the macronist withdraws, it's likely their voters won't vote for LFI. They might turn to RN or not vote at all. Likely, their voters will be split on the 2 solution, making it dangerously real for the far-right to win.
By maintaining their presence, they more or less ensure to keep those votes away from the RN. Don't be fooled.
The first round is already RN winning
With that withdraw, they win anyways or LFI will win thanks to your withdraw.
All while you shout to your supporters, I'm not able to convince 2% of RN or LFI voter to vote for me and win by myself.
Textbook political bullshit move. And at the same time you complain about people voting for far right and far left. That's the stuff the voter base is sick off.
Not if they get the absolute majority and since that was a real possibility wherever there were three candidates, candidates from both the extreme left and the centre are stepping down everywhere in the hope that the other's % will grow. The extreme-left voters might vote for the centre but I am not convinced it will work the other way around. We'll see what gives. If the RN doesn't have the absolute majority, they won't govern. In that case the other two will have to work it out but between them but it will be very difficult to make anything happen. Their programmes are too different.
Not sure what you mean. If LR agrees to support the RN's programme, and if that means that they can count on 289 (+) votes for their proposals, an absolute majority, of course they will govern. But will they get it? I don't believe so, the left and the centre are actively blocking the RN by having their candidates pull out in favour of the other. When I say that NFP and Ensemble will have to work it out, I mean that their programmes aren't aligned. Is Macron going to help pass the 'SMIC' at 1600 EUR? Is he going to tax the rich even more? Are they going to loosen up immigration laws? Recognise Palestine? Because that's what the left wants. But for Macron's party, those aren't or shouldn't be viable options. Since neither has a majority, most if not all proposals will be left sitting on the table without advancing. That's why the RN won't govern without an absolute majority. They want to be able to execute. Look, I am not an extreme-right-wing voter, but what Macron has pulled is Machiavellianism gone wrong. This coalition is complete madness and complete rubbish. He will effectively create a powerless government. The RN will stand by rubbing its hands together like Mr. Burns.
Well I am not an oracle. :p But in your example ... NFP and Ensemble won't work together with the RN. So if the RN has 250 seats, they will have to convince 39 LR delegates to support their decision-making. But LR won't have more than 25-30 seats probably; their share is relatively small. I don't think the RN will have the amount of seats required to get to an absolute majority, not even if they manage to convince all LR delegates. There was a chance when there were hundreds of 'triangulations' but with NFP and Ensemble teaming up, it will be very difficult for the RN to get that absolute majority. If next week, they do not have that absolute majority, it's MUCH better for them to stand by. If they agree to govern as a relative majority, they will just be blocked at every turn by the centre and (extreme-)left - frustrating for themselves and their voters. Macron, Mélenchon and co. will struggle to make anything happen at all, which will play into the hand of the RN come the presidential elections in 2027.
While everyone seems to be focused on Le Pen and the growing far-right movement, I can't help but wonder about La France Insoumise. I recently came across an article about a party member who openly supports Russia and Assad. This raises some serious questions about the party's overall stance on these issues.
The party's stances on most international issues are shit.
They want out of Europe, out of treaties, want to ally with the BRICS instead. Their internal policies reflect that, but they drape it with "woke" topics so they're still perceived as leftists. They have worse antisemites than LePen, people who openly call for the murder of whites, they have no composure whatsoever.
Lucky for them, there are still a few normies left in there maintaining the illusion.
But otherwise, Mélechon is basically Corbyn with a fascination for dictators. He even has it in his program to become one himself, but since he calls it Republic and says random people will redact the new constitution, the left is lapping it up.
Helps that they are lying through their teeth and that Mélenchon is a smooth talker. His public persona shows a hot-tempered asshole, which helps with people coming up to explain he just lost to and never meant what he said/ taken out of context / Just needs to go (his close circle is even worse and prop-leaning), that the left is still standing. Doesn't matter to them that they have to do that every time he tweets or open his mouth in public. The tomfoolery is strong.
He has very trump-like features and his followers remain absolutely blind to it.
All you're saying about LFI is bullshit. You should be more critical about what the media fed spoon you, or you shouldn't talk about matter you dont know enough about. Otherwise you're just a mainstream megaphone. Be more responsible in the future please.
I don't know about the party's stance, but its leader, Mélanchon, is still stuck with that outdated mindset of "USA = imperialists, USA = bad, therefore the enemies of the USA = good".
Back in 2014, he literally wrote on his personal blog that Russia annexing Crimea was a good thing because it would thwart NATO's imperialist ambitions lead by the US to turn Ukraine into an American puppet state.
All in all, La France Insoumise's biggest repellent is Mélanchon. A poll recently showed he was despised by over 60% of the people surveyed. That's almost as much as Zemmour, who's a far right, ultra conservative, racist nutjob.
Same advice as the comment on top or yours.
All you're saying about Melanchon is bullshit. You should be more critical about what the media fed spoon you, or you shouldn't talk about matter you dont know enough about. Otherwise you're just a mainstream megaphone. Be more responsible in the future please.
If he ever makes it to the second round, I doubt he would win.
As I've written in my precedent comment, he's one of the most despised (or less liked, depends on how you want to see it) political figures in France. Even voters from the moderate left are wary of him.
He has quite an ego and a "loud mouth" which is both his strength and weakness. After the socialists downfall, La France Insoumise became the biggest party on the left of the political spectrum. So Mélanchon's party dominates the left coalitions that were formed.
These elections only show that the mainstream media's vilification and disregard for the everyday citizen, the worker, and the manual laborer lead to the very absurdities they themselves warn about.
I'm guessing they meant the established collective media outlets that dominate the public space and tend to reiterate and support the positions of center left politicians when it comes to possibly controversial issues. It's funny how pretty much all countries have them, a group of popular newspapers and TV channels, owned by 2 or 3 gigantic media conglomerates, that always play along with politicians from the major parties.
People only ever voted for Macron because the alternative was worse. But the success went to his head. The man is a cretin.
If it was his goal to let people see what it would be like with the RN in power, he has been successful in the way one can successfully be an arsonist.
I never said it was better, just wanted to set the record straight,they won't actually do it anyways, it's just the lies they tell to their voters so they can get into positions of power, the truth is that it simply cannot be done.
the french military even attempted 2 coups during the algerian war, because apparently theyd rather keep sending thousands of young men to their deaths to keep the land if it means destroying french democracy in the process.
Dumb Foreigner Questions:
I thought only the top 2 candidates head into the 2nd Round? Why is there now talk of a 3-way battle in the 2nd Round and urging the non-RN guys who ranked 3rd to withdraw in order to defeat RN? 2nd Round now has 3 people in it instead of 2?
Wasn't the 2-round system devised to prevent and reduce exactly this sort of FPTP flaw from happening and save voters on the same spectrum the trouble or needing to wrangle, tactical vote and negotiate?
To add to what u/HeyIAmInfinity correctly said, it's 12.5% of the registered electorate; so if the participation is not 100%, the actual threshold is higher.
This time, with 67.5% of participation, the threshold was around 18.5%.
So any candidate with more votes has made it to the second round; next week, we'll even have 5 *quadrangulaires* as we call them, i.e second rounds with 4 candidates.
We never got to a 2nd round with more than 4 candidates left, but in theory we could go as high as 8 (100% particicipation, all 8 get exactly 12.5% of the vote).
Alright, I see.
Was it always like this? Where whoever got more than 12.5% could join the top 2 candidates into the 2nd round?
And any math nerd care to explain why this particular number as a threshold?
The French 5th Republic started in 1958, the % to reach was initially 5%. (And in that configuration, in 1958, we got one race with 6 candidates reaching the second term). In 1966 the % was increased to 10%; and in 1976 to 12.5%.
The math reason seems to simply be "100 divided by a natural number" (8 currently).
I hope RN crushes and wins a majority. European politicians have had a solid decade or more to actually hear the people when they talk about their biggest concerns which is migration and they have chosen to ignore it. So this will be about their last chance at a wake up call is watching Europeans vote for ultra right leaning parties who at least talk about and seem willing to offer solutions.
I have no clue why these politicians have chosen to ignore the majority voice but they will now suffer the consequences of it.
Lets just hope other nations can take heed as ultra right wing parties grow in all the polls. I wouldnt hold my breath though.
Brexit already happened and Meloni already won in Italy, is it still not clear that these are just populist talking points and that they're not interested in actually dealing with immigration once they get into power?
Why do you want people to keep falling for these empty promises?
edit: not interested or, more likely, don't know how
That just means they are not nationalist enough and will be replaced by more nationalist leadership. It's still a major achievement that right promises are being promised. There just needs to be more pressure on them to realize it.
We don't know if Le Pen is not just another liberal. She has to prove herself.
You are right that this risks happening
But they still won't solve anything
Since you know what stands to the right of the Tories, of Meloni, of Reassemble National? Well ok, the right of Zemmour for France
Ideologies that care even less about fulfilling promises or what the people want. Who if they get elected once, won't ever be elected out.
Protest Voting is one of the stupidest things anyone could do. It's not even about policies, it's just "those guys didnt do that well, with the pure power of hope these guys will probably do better"
I am sad though that we can see decades of social progress unwind right before our eyes just because governing parties were so full of themselves and refused to listen to the people.
It will likely not happen in France as RN is pretty mild but for example in my country (Poland) last 8 years were a complete disaster which we will be dealing with for a very long time.
The job of a politician is to take care of interest of people they represent. "Is migration in current form beneficial for the people in my country?" should be the only question of concern. It wasn't and then people thought "if it's not in our interest then whose interest?" It's an easy message to sell and it will continue selling well.
RN is not mild at all, they have many ties to recent and older neo-nazi, fascist militia and organisations, some of these groups have been dismantled, some of their members are in prison because of terrorist attacks they were planning, or did
Also let's not forget that the party founders are literal SS, OAS members, white supremacists. And that Marine herself was bought up in such familial context
And lots of party members get regularly exposed for past tweets, posts, interview excerpts where they say vile homophobic, transphobic, pro-life, racist stuff
They are rotten
I think Le Pen wants power more than anything, and will moderate her positions if necessary to win. But I’m not sure that’s true of a lot of the party membership. If the RN comes to power, it would not surprise me to see it fail to hold together.
Speaking of Italy, Meloni has managed to keep her party together because most of the success is on here. The existence of rivals with RN will make it difficult for the party to stay united but it could also allow them to put on a façade of moderation on one side and to appeal to the extremists on the other.
Meloni also has an easier job in that her party only recently exploded in popularity. Ergo, it literally hasn't had time to develop currents, had very few well known faces before the election. At least, ones electable or not clearly incompetent. Apart for Meloni herself. This does mean her greater risk, is to follow all other "came from nothing" parties that won before. The Five Stars Movement, Salvini, even Berlusconi or Renzi in some way. Falling back to nothing when it fails to satisfy voters.
RN may have the advantage of being an older party, so it has a history of cohesion and no risk of outright losing the majority of voters, since they should have won some fidelity. But also the disadvantage of any established party, that of being composed by many different visions each with their visionaries.
Interesting to say the least, not just for France. Will the establishment finally understand the magnitude of frustration among European societies, or will they (again) pretend that everything is fine and continue anti-european politics?
Nah, journalists will keep writing articles like „Why are people voting right suddenly??“ and anti right parties will keep yapping about fighting right but not do proper politics. They dont understand that its not about being racist but that people simply cant accept anymore that their lives are getting worse lol
>They dont understand that its not about being racist but that people simply cant accept anymore that their lives are getting worse lol
But life under a RN government isn't going to get better. RN is known to be economically populist, but now that they're quite close to possibly having a PM, they're already showing they'll be economically neoliberal (not very different from neoliberal Macron) in order to appease business owners. In short, RN has tried to craft the lie that they care about the people, but they don't. They're just bigots who will be economically neoliberal, like Meloni.
It wont - but its the same issue in all of Europe. You have politicans like Macron who are delusional about their own countries problems, and make bad politics. So do you vote RN and hope these politicans come up with better politics already or do you keep voting for them cause they tell you not to vote for the bad guys and continue doing their bad policy?
If I was French I would vote against Macron aswell, that guys just a talker im tired of him.
I know what you mean: I also strongly despise Macron because his politics are just so... anti-people. Like at least he's not as bigoted as the RN, but he still hurts the working class a lot and his government has been kind of anti-immigration as well. To put it bluntly, I think he's thoroughly right-wing liberal, and I don't like that. However, RN is simply not an alternative to Macron. They're not only going to try to destroy human rights in as many ways as possible (against LGBT people, against migrants, against workers in spite of the populist veneer that has given them a plurality of votes of the working class), but they're also going to have the shitty neoliberal economics that have created this mess most people are fed up with. In short, I'm a leftist and I think the best alternative is the left.
The establishment hardly care about normal people, they want them angry and divided. Not a single 'right wing' populist actually does anything when they come into power
I don't think so.
Last night, when the results where published; the leader of the Ecologists just broke down in tears on French tv because the Minister of Economy (LR) announced he would give no instruction to vote next. Meaning some people fully expect the usual call to barrage against RN, which would reward NFP.
NFP now is an unlikely alliance of people who despise each other, who don't agree on anything, but pretend to be the left. One of these party, LFI, is plain repulsive for far too many people: antisemitic, caters to islamists, acts like a dictatorship, never compromise even to stop the awful retirement plan, etc. Some of their députés are also plain idiots (how else to call Boyard or Soudais ?). And so much more...
So, the leader of the Ecologists, it appears, comes from a place which has elected the RN since the past deputation. And is here crying, saying the minister doesn't understand what is he saying, what it means to the people, etc. She knows, supposedly, because of where she comes from.
What did she do to answer to those poor people ? She launched the European campaign with a "booty dance", to boost positivity. And that's pretty much it.
Oh, and she caters to islamists too, is against nuclear power, wants to ruin our agriculture, etc.
There will be no wake-up call. Especially now that LFI has been elected by a large margin everywhere islamists and Parisians live.
> So, the leader of the Ecologists, it appears, comes from a place which has elected the RN since the past deputation. And is here crying, saying the minister doesn't understand what is he saying, what it means to the people, etc. She knows, supposedly, because of where she comes from.
There is the irony. They have elected the RN a long time ago and they keep doing it. So they love it. What is there to cry about ? democracy ?
As I understand it the left-wing alliance and Macron's block will withdraw their candidates wherever they only landed in third place.
So with them consolidating around each other's candidates won't the second round become a complete wipeout for RN? They are the single biggest party by itself but that doesn't really matter in a first-past-the-post system since they don't have any allies to help them across the finish line.
> So with them consolidating around each other's candidates won't the second round become a complete wipeout for RN?
After looking at the figures, with the same participation and people following those instructions, I couldn't find a single case (among the dozens I checked) where RN could win on the second turn (so they would just have the representatives elected straight from the first turn).
So while I prefer to stay cautious, it is still the likely outcome.
Depends. Left wing will only withdraw when FN is first and their candidate is third. Marcon bloc should only withdraw, when they’re being third place and second is not LFI. (The biggest party in the left wing bloc) LR was not called to withdraw.
It’s not as many as you might think.
For example there are 5 four way ties. No one will withdraw according to those rules.
18 constituencies are #1FN #2LR and #3NFP(Leftwing blog).
244 constituencies are thee way ties between the big 3. Just around 100 of those fall in the categories i mentioned.
In France the parties that pass to the second round are those which have received at least as many votes as 12,5% of the total electorate. This is circumvented if a party in the first round receives at least 50% of the votes and at least as many votes as 25% of the electorate. When we refer to "three-way ties" in this election, it means that three parties passed to the second round.
If it works, then yes. But you're assuming that voters would just follow the withdrawing candidates' instructions. That's not guaranteed.
Centrists and Leftists hate each other.
It's quite a bit more complicated than that. RN is very strongly despised beyond their core voters, even conservative voters (typically voting Les Républicains) have been seen voting left to avoid a RN candidate in the past. Next Sunday is going to be wild, no one can predict which direction it will go.
This assumes the alliance actually happens. Right now many Macronist candidates say they will not withdraw in favour of Mélenchonists. So the alliance is not a guarantee.
People actually rarely listen to what their candidates appeal to report their votes. I think the macroniste will likely not vote, those who will will clearly vote left.
Historically, far right in France does not increase in the second turn. The only people who vote far right second turn are the ones who did first turn.
Honestly, it's kind of a dilemma. You know that if the far right party comes to power, the democracy is under a threat, ao allowing them to come to power, means allowing democracy to fall under that threat. At the same time, not allowing that party to come to power is against democracy, and you will demolish the democracy yourself by doing it.
RN swept the North and Mediterranean.
NFP east Ile de France.
Only ENS strongholds left are Britanny, west Ile de France and Lille.
Second round will be very interesting.
LR stronger than expected. In nearly 50 three way ties with RN and left bloc.
They will decide if RN gets a majority or not.
> Only ENS strongholds left are Britanny
In large part because NFP put LFI candidates there, despite LFI being hated there; Brittons usually vote socdem. There is a 4-way tie in 29-08 (RN/ENS/Leftwing candidate/LFI).
Sure. Just looking at the map.
Brittany also has NFP and RN pockets. But unlike all other Regions, ENS actually has plenty first round winners there. Not counting the occasional constituencies here and there.
And where outside those 3 regions and abroad do we expect ENS having a chance to actually win some of those seats? Without left wing people voting for ENS in the second round to prevent RN, they would drop below 50 seats.
> But unlike all other Regions, ENS actually has plenty first round winners there.
Correct, but they overperformed because the NFP candidate was from LFI and LFI is hated there (and in many other place). NFP is an electoral alliance and nothing more; I would have expected things to look different if the NFP candidate were from PS
> Brittany also has (...) RN pockets.
This looks deceiving because these consituencies in Brittany have 40~60% left+ENS voters split into multiple candidates. I expect stuff to look different after the runoffs.
Everything looks different under other rules. First choice picture was painted.
Second round will most likely be a shit show. Just don't know which one yet.
RN getting 300++ seats or just above 200. You can't know what intentions have more weight and who are more people. Not wanting RN in power or being done with strategic voting in the second round resulting in getting politics you don't want.
Proper official numbers of votes for the 1st turn: https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/index.html
Media outlets tend to skew numbers around, I wouldn’t trust them as much as the ministry of interior itself.
I don’t mean to be a dick, but it’s amazing Europe hasn’t seen this coming. The warning signs were there with Brexit and unfortunately I can see this only continuing to be an issue across Europe. The reality is too many governments have focused on culture and bureaucracy over tangibly improving people’s lives. Now the snake oil salesmen are taking power.
Very sad to see the right making gains - if it makes you feel any better the U.K. are a few years ahead of you and now finally returning back to competence
The leftist parties have either been ignoring or have been afraid to acknowledge the issues people have been facing. It's the same in the US. No one wants to talk about immigration on the left in any meaningful way and they just give votes to the right as a result. It's sad.
That's just bullcrap presented by rightwing parties.
The far-right stronholds aren't even living amongst immigrants. It's almost always suburban or rural areas, areas where fear of the unknown is much stronger.
Anyway the far-right frames immigration as the main problem while the main problems are topics like housing, cost of living/purchasing power/inflation and population ageing.
The far-right blames these on immigration, while this is at worst a drop in an already overflowing bucket. The lack of social initiatives on housing, the privatization of key infrastructure (energy and public transport) and tax cuts for major companies and rich people have a bigger impact on our lives than immigration.
On top of that, the only reason why so many people see immigration as a major issue is because politicians convince people that this is an important issue.
In the previous elections in Belgium, our right-wing party (N-VA) campaigned against immigration and refugees (Marakesh). Because of this campaign, they made people believe that immigration was indeed the major issue. So people voted for the most anit-immigration party, and thus they lost votes to the far-right.
In this year's elections in the NL the center-right and right offered legitimatcy to the far-right, in the hope to gain voted. They lost votes against the far-right. Similar mistake N-VA made in Belgium.
Back to Belgium this year. The far-right was expected to reach a record high, becoming the biggest party in Flanders and even Belgium as a whole.
N-VA learned from their past mistake and from the NL. campaign. N-VA ignored immigration and stuck to economic issues. They focussed the attention away from immigration back to the main issue: economics.
The far-right was forced to give economic solutions and best they could do was "stop/reverse immigration and all economic issues are gone". People aren't stupid. They know it's not that simple.
At the same time the greens and the center-right cornered the far-right by bringing up the subject of LGBT. The greens have a (now out-going) minister who is trans. The (de-facto) head of the center-left is gay. So when the subject of LGBT came up, the far-right was cornered and forced to reveal their thoughts in the matter.
They were forced to take-off their mask and reveal themselves to be anti-lgbt. Everyone know someone who is gay, and the (trans) minister of the greens is very competent so personal attacks against her are a no-go. It's one thing to hate immigrants you never met because you live in your rural town. It's another to vote for someone who's against your respected friend or family member.
End result. Make the far-right debate real issues. Take away their weapon of immigration. Mention it, but focus on the real issues and you'll see them lose votes. Play their game and you'll lose.
Belgium isn't France.
[https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/legislatives/resultats-des-legislatives-2024-age-revenus-profession-qui-a-vote-quoi-au-premier-tour-20240701](https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/legislatives/resultats-des-legislatives-2024-age-revenus-profession-qui-a-vote-quoi-au-premier-tour-20240701)
"Le score du RN repose non seulement sur la forte mobilisation de ses soutiens traditionnels (ouvriers, employés...), mais aussi sur un élargissement de son socle. Ainsi le parti nationaliste arrive en tête chez les retraités avec 31% des suffrages (contre 12% aux législatives de 2002), chez les femmes (32% contre 17% en 2022), chez les plus aisés (32% contre 15% en 2022). Il progresse fortement chez les moins de 35 ans (32% contre 18% en 2022), ou encore dans les grandes villes (28% contre 13% en 2022). Les moins bonnes performances sont enregistrées chez les cadres et les plus diplômés, mais là encore le score du RN a doublé (de 11% à 22%)."
Also:
[https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/entrees-irregulieres-dans-l-ue-les-chiffres-de-2023-au-plus-haut-depuis-2016-20240116](https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/entrees-irregulieres-dans-l-ue-les-chiffres-de-2023-au-plus-haut-depuis-2016-20240116)
And:
[https://www.leparisien.fr/faits-divers/paris-les-autorites-sinquietent-de-la-montee-en-puissance-des-mineurs-non-accompagnes-delinquants-09-01-2023-LBBSFMR6IFGZRDYN6GUI7GKOMY.php](https://www.leparisien.fr/faits-divers/paris-les-autorites-sinquietent-de-la-montee-en-puissance-des-mineurs-non-accompagnes-delinquants-09-01-2023-LBBSFMR6IFGZRDYN6GUI7GKOMY.php)
Cant wait for this sub to now dogpile on France for electing a wrong party to power and calls to strip them of their European card for the inevitable rule of law violations (most of them non-issues or made up). Oh wait, it wont happen „because its France”.
Being anti-mass migration and anti-religion is a good thing. Being pro-mass migration especially when it comes from culturally incompatible places is a dumb policy and will always lead to this exact type of party taking over.
They are pro religion, what are you saying... A big part of their electors are Catholics, without them they won't go anywhere. They are against freedom of religion, not religion.
There is currently no mass immigration in Europe. It's not because you keep saying it that it becomes true. France has around 10% of its population composed of immigrants, and of those, less than 10% illegals, which means you have less than 1% of the population being illegal immigrants. If that's massive, well I'm not sure what to say then.
Western Europe relies on immigration for its growth, it's been like this for 70 years. If you stop that, we will get hit by massive recession in less than 10 years.
You anger them enough they have a Bastille day. Hope you don't sneer and insult their culture. Akira they might start up the trundle against Muslim and leftist anti French hordes.
Sorry but no. The party doesn't want to ban Islam, it wants to apply the secular state (which doesn't mean they want to ban Islam at all), limit the numbers of illegal immigrants entering the country, and not let binational people get some (supposedly? Really unclear...) important (again, what's important? Politics ? Is a firefighter important???) government job (this doesn't only apply to Muslims but everyone, even non Islamic country I think? But again, this last point is so unclear and is definitely dumb)
I'm not saying it's a good party, at the opposite. Some stuff is absolutely dumb. I'm just saying that it isn't really about banning religions, enslave immigrants and murdering people they don't like.
> again, what's important? Politics ? Is a firefighter important???
Watched an interview with an economist who used to be advisor of Le Pen. Apparently that represents just a few hundred jobs. Think "top secret" kind of jobs. Which to me sounds fairly reasonable?
To be fair, they didn't say "important", they said "strategic". So probably Defense and Industry.
Thing is, it is plain racist. Why ?
Because as of today, there is an investigation towards everyone applying for these kinds of jobs. Towards their family as well. And it's ever ongoing, meaning you may be 12 years into the job, if anyone from your family travels somewhere to watch( the USA are on the list for example, for the industrial spying aspect), or if you talk online with someone from another country with some keywords, you will be auditioned.
I wish journalists just did their job here.
With the current system, people can be binational and get the job if there's nothing to see here. It's understood that for some jobs (ex: diplomacy), it's sometimes even better to know another country very well.
Just forbidding someone to get a job because of their binationality is 1/ stupid, 2/racist, 3/ wouldn't pass the Conseil Constitutionnel.
Exactly. I wish the left and center could have addressed voters' issues with safety, immigration, secularism, etc. more effectively. Now we're facing a party that wants to eliminate taxes for everyone under 30, and who has binationals in their own party apparatus but somehow wants to eliminate them in government jobs every where else.
For fuck's sakes , Macron and the Left have 48% of the vote together, 14% more than the RN, France has not suddenly turned Nazi like this thread suggests - it's just that anyone who even holds mildly racist/right wing views and prolly the boomers have consolidated behind the RN.
The lesson here is to stop appeasing the Right Wing- they have tasted blood and will never vote for Macron going forward, idk how French politics works but if Macron and the Left are serious about stopping RN- alliances are the way to go
So Macron has to form a coalition with people from the radical left whom he has nothing in common with (from the EU to the war in Ukraine), to prevent the RN from having a majority because of their position on EU and Ukraine which is the same of the radical left?
That is what the mandate of the people suggests, yes. They're tired of neo-liberalism and want solutions , now it's upto Macron and the Left to come together and provide solutions, or let RN rule- the people's opinion cannot be clearer
>That is what the mandate of the people suggests, yes.
I wouldn't think so
>now it's upto Macron and the Left to come together
They have nothing in common. The main problem of the RN is that they're pro-Russian and anti-EU, and Melenchon has the same issues.
Let's be real, it's been over an year and a half of the Russia-Ukraine war, people's attentions have shifted to Israel-Palestine already. People don't care anymore, I'm willing to bet a good amount of money that a large part of Europe atp would be happy to let Russia annexe Ukraine if it meant lower Gas Prices.
Le Monde wrote an article about this- how the war was not even an issue in this election
Dude you're Indian, you don't understand European politics. And you're also not informed: gas prices have already fallen, we're already weaned off Russian gas and we're buying from other countries
I understand numbers and politics, the numbers are there for everyone to see. Or are European voters so stupid that they've voted for people who don't represent their interests?
I'm not saying Europe doesn't sympathise with Ukraine, I'm saying that the war is bottom of the barrel for most people in terms of priorities- especially the young voters who are more concerned about Israel-Palestine
Melenchon has been pretty vocal in favour of Palestine since Oct 7th while everyone knows what his views on Russia are, yet their coalition is no 2. You're better off asking this question to French voters and young Europeans.
Depends on the region. Eastern EU would rather die than the prospect of falling into Russia's sphere of influence ever again. Maybe apart from Hungary.
>Macron and the Left have 48% of the vote together
Add in what's left of the traditional right (~10%) and various centrist groups, and it's theoretically possible to have a non-far right coalition if everyone gets together.
The noosphere concept is a Russian sci-fi cliche. The first STALKER game is basically just a mish mash of old Russian sci-fi ideas and 2000s fps tropes.
>The first STALKER game is basically just a mish mash of old Russian sci-fi ideas
It's actually just the concept of the book "Roadside Picnic" expanded with inspiration from the movie "Stalker" by Tarkovsky (which is also based on the book).
I know, But in the time of USSR every single "satellite" republic had main headquarters/orders from moscow. So various experiments mainly are being ordered by russia(inc Chornobyl "nuclear plant tests",etc, and then keep it in secret/lie that nothing is happening as much as possible)
Quotes from the winners of this election (they are all real , you can fact check)
2013 Gilles Bourdouleix : "Hitler did not kill enough gypsies"
2014 Brigitte Barèges : " A black candidate on my list is a stain"
2018 Joseph Martin : " Gas gave justice to the victims of Shoah"
Joseph Martin's comment was a joke about Robert Faurisson (a famous Holocaust denier)'s death. Because at the time he was rumored to have been killed by a gas leak.
The best one for me is from Jean-Marie Le Pen, I don't know when he said it but the fact that he repeated it again and again and even now his party condones it :
"Gas showers are but a small detail of WW2"
> "Gas showers are but a small detail of WW2"
Aint that factually correct tho? Not all nazi work camps were death camps and not all death camps had the gas showers. People were not only gassed, but also shot and worked to death. Meanwhile, as the name suggest the war was worldwide. Gas showers, west front, Nanjing, atomics, and the list atrocities and civilian suffering just goes on and on.
Gas showers were brutal and tragic part of world war 2, but to elevate it above all the other tragedies, to insinuate that they were the core tragedy and suffering of WW2 reeks of hubris at worst and lack of education at best.
I could see how the adjective "small" could ruffle some feathers and injure some pride, but when put against the World War, everything is small.
You're right about the showers not being the biggest thing about WW2, but that coming from someone who created a political party with literal nazis, people who worked in the Waffen-SS, as well as people who are in a far-right terrorist group that killed a lot of people in Algeria during the Algerian war of independence, is clearly antisemitic.
Nope, but he's still the grand father of the current head of the RN's gf, the guy that will be Prime Minister if RN has the majority in the elections. The RN is kind of like a family thing, Jean Marie started it, then his daughter took over now it's her niece's bf who's the leader.
Shhh, this is Reddit. "Everyone I disagree with is literary Hitler" is basic tactic
And then they wonder why people don't give shit when someone is called nazi. "Nazi inflation" is real
Hi, the post is very simplified, if anyone feels like improving it, it can post a reply here and I will add more information
the French republic is built upon hypocrisy. it preaches equality, yet mercilessly punished anyone who spoke languages other than French (such as breton, corsican and Occitan) as a threat and banned use of said languages, because of what could be best described as cultural chauvinism. the same Republic preaches liberty, yet the laws it created to separate church and state were built to supress french Catholicism, as the lawmakers of the third republic believed the catholic church was part of a royalist conspiracy to overthrow the republic (this scandal showed the twisted lengths officials would go in order to satisfy their paranoia: [Affair of the Cards - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affair_of_the_Cards)) and now those same laws are used to harass Muslims. it preaches fraternity, yet send thousands to their deaths in futile colonial wars. french democracy is beautiful and disgusting at the same time
The funny thing is, is that Le Pen isn't remotely right wing.
Some people in this thread really believe that frech people magically came under influence of evil far-right (sic) putinist propaganda (sic) in the recent two years for absolutely no reason. And that they have moral obligation to vote for the same parties and people who were in charge for well above few decades. Sometimes electorates get frustrated, and sometimes this frustration is vented through voting for parties that claim to resolve their issues even if they are/are labeled as xenophobic, populist, dangerous to democracy etc. I know, this is a controversial idea, but maybe 1/3 of french voters aren't evil crypto-hitlers and they just have need for change that other parties cannot provide?
Agreed, the left failed, the center failed, National Rally is all that's left!
the French Communist Party though...
Seems like i was quite a bit wrong on withdrawals. 122 NFP, 70ENS and 8 other candidates withdrew. So even when RN wasn't first but Resemble someone from NFP withdrew. Same goes for ENS candidates running against LFI. 106 three-way ties left. 3 quadruples down from 5. [2024 legislative elections: who will be a candidate in the second round after the withdrawals? Track the count (lemonde.fr)](https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2024/07/02/legislatives-2024-qui-sera-candidat-au-second-tour-apres-les-desistements-suivez-le-decompte_6245837_4355771.html) Let's see if that will backfire at later elections
The whole point being that if they're third on the first count, they've virtually no chance of success, so in terms of blocking the RN, it doesn't matter who actually topped the poll.
Of course, but it looks bad to help someone win who you're completely opposed to on a political and ideological stance with your withdraw. The worst offender is Aveyron 2nd. All three candidates above 30% and instead of trying to gain 4% or 5% to win the seat, you drop out. That is a fucking loser mentality and I would never ever vote for that person again in my life.
Aveyron usually votes for the right. If the macronist withdraws, it's likely their voters won't vote for LFI. They might turn to RN or not vote at all. Likely, their voters will be split on the 2 solution, making it dangerously real for the far-right to win. By maintaining their presence, they more or less ensure to keep those votes away from the RN. Don't be fooled.
The first round is already RN winning With that withdraw, they win anyways or LFI will win thanks to your withdraw. All while you shout to your supporters, I'm not able to convince 2% of RN or LFI voter to vote for me and win by myself. Textbook political bullshit move. And at the same time you complain about people voting for far right and far left. That's the stuff the voter base is sick off.
So if this Pen group wins the elections, a Pen government would still need the support of other parties to get legislation done, wouldn't it?
Not if they get the absolute majority and since that was a real possibility wherever there were three candidates, candidates from both the extreme left and the centre are stepping down everywhere in the hope that the other's % will grow. The extreme-left voters might vote for the centre but I am not convinced it will work the other way around. We'll see what gives. If the RN doesn't have the absolute majority, they won't govern. In that case the other two will have to work it out but between them but it will be very difficult to make anything happen. Their programmes are too different.
What if RN doesn't have majority on their own but RN + LR has it (thus also NFP + ensemble can't 'work it out' anw)?
Not sure what you mean. If LR agrees to support the RN's programme, and if that means that they can count on 289 (+) votes for their proposals, an absolute majority, of course they will govern. But will they get it? I don't believe so, the left and the centre are actively blocking the RN by having their candidates pull out in favour of the other. When I say that NFP and Ensemble will have to work it out, I mean that their programmes aren't aligned. Is Macron going to help pass the 'SMIC' at 1600 EUR? Is he going to tax the rich even more? Are they going to loosen up immigration laws? Recognise Palestine? Because that's what the left wants. But for Macron's party, those aren't or shouldn't be viable options. Since neither has a majority, most if not all proposals will be left sitting on the table without advancing. That's why the RN won't govern without an absolute majority. They want to be able to execute. Look, I am not an extreme-right-wing voter, but what Macron has pulled is Machiavellianism gone wrong. This coalition is complete madness and complete rubbish. He will effectively create a powerless government. The RN will stand by rubbing its hands together like Mr. Burns.
I meant, say RN at 250 seats, LR at 50 seats, NFP at 150 seats, Ensemble at 100 seats. What do you think will happen then?
Well I am not an oracle. :p But in your example ... NFP and Ensemble won't work together with the RN. So if the RN has 250 seats, they will have to convince 39 LR delegates to support their decision-making. But LR won't have more than 25-30 seats probably; their share is relatively small. I don't think the RN will have the amount of seats required to get to an absolute majority, not even if they manage to convince all LR delegates. There was a chance when there were hundreds of 'triangulations' but with NFP and Ensemble teaming up, it will be very difficult for the RN to get that absolute majority. If next week, they do not have that absolute majority, it's MUCH better for them to stand by. If they agree to govern as a relative majority, they will just be blocked at every turn by the centre and (extreme-)left - frustrating for themselves and their voters. Macron, Mélenchon and co. will struggle to make anything happen at all, which will play into the hand of the RN come the presidential elections in 2027.
While everyone seems to be focused on Le Pen and the growing far-right movement, I can't help but wonder about La France Insoumise. I recently came across an article about a party member who openly supports Russia and Assad. This raises some serious questions about the party's overall stance on these issues.
The party's stances on most international issues are shit. They want out of Europe, out of treaties, want to ally with the BRICS instead. Their internal policies reflect that, but they drape it with "woke" topics so they're still perceived as leftists. They have worse antisemites than LePen, people who openly call for the murder of whites, they have no composure whatsoever. Lucky for them, there are still a few normies left in there maintaining the illusion. But otherwise, Mélechon is basically Corbyn with a fascination for dictators. He even has it in his program to become one himself, but since he calls it Republic and says random people will redact the new constitution, the left is lapping it up. Helps that they are lying through their teeth and that Mélenchon is a smooth talker. His public persona shows a hot-tempered asshole, which helps with people coming up to explain he just lost to and never meant what he said/ taken out of context / Just needs to go (his close circle is even worse and prop-leaning), that the left is still standing. Doesn't matter to them that they have to do that every time he tweets or open his mouth in public. The tomfoolery is strong. He has very trump-like features and his followers remain absolutely blind to it.
All you're saying about LFI is bullshit. You should be more critical about what the media fed spoon you, or you shouldn't talk about matter you dont know enough about. Otherwise you're just a mainstream megaphone. Be more responsible in the future please.
I don't know about the party's stance, but its leader, Mélanchon, is still stuck with that outdated mindset of "USA = imperialists, USA = bad, therefore the enemies of the USA = good". Back in 2014, he literally wrote on his personal blog that Russia annexing Crimea was a good thing because it would thwart NATO's imperialist ambitions lead by the US to turn Ukraine into an American puppet state. All in all, La France Insoumise's biggest repellent is Mélanchon. A poll recently showed he was despised by over 60% of the people surveyed. That's almost as much as Zemmour, who's a far right, ultra conservative, racist nutjob.
Same advice as the comment on top or yours. All you're saying about Melanchon is bullshit. You should be more critical about what the media fed spoon you, or you shouldn't talk about matter you dont know enough about. Otherwise you're just a mainstream megaphone. Be more responsible in the future please.
>All you're saying about Méanchon is bullshit Lol, lmao even
So do you think there is a chance Mélenchon could win in 2027?
If he ever makes it to the second round, I doubt he would win. As I've written in my precedent comment, he's one of the most despised (or less liked, depends on how you want to see it) political figures in France. Even voters from the moderate left are wary of him. He has quite an ego and a "loud mouth" which is both his strength and weakness. After the socialists downfall, La France Insoumise became the biggest party on the left of the political spectrum. So Mélanchon's party dominates the left coalitions that were formed.
They have the usual far left loony takes on foreign policy. But the other parties in the alliance don't and the platform is mostly sane.
They are absolute trash. Anarchists and terrorism apologists.
Macron and his dusty wife need to ride off into the sunset
These elections only show that the mainstream media's vilification and disregard for the everyday citizen, the worker, and the manual laborer lead to the very absurdities they themselves warn about.
What is the "mainstream media"?
I'm guessing they meant the established collective media outlets that dominate the public space and tend to reiterate and support the positions of center left politicians when it comes to possibly controversial issues. It's funny how pretty much all countries have them, a group of popular newspapers and TV channels, owned by 2 or 3 gigantic media conglomerates, that always play along with politicians from the major parties.
>gigantic media conglomerates Like NewsCorp?
At the same time, these people are... confused to say the least.
Well said
People only ever voted for Macron because the alternative was worse. But the success went to his head. The man is a cretin. If it was his goal to let people see what it would be like with the RN in power, he has been successful in the way one can successfully be an arsonist.
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the alternative hasn't been in therefore it is not known if it's worse
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Does human race not have middle eastern countries you advocate for ?
The middle east has very little to do with the situation in france, this is squarely colonial era policies coming home to roost.
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I never said it was better, just wanted to set the record straight,they won't actually do it anyways, it's just the lies they tell to their voters so they can get into positions of power, the truth is that it simply cannot be done.
hmm so a main left coalition called the popular front is running against a right wing conservative force? Reminds me of an another election in 1936
That's exactly the reason why they call themselves the "New popular front" : because in 1936 Leon Blum led the "Popular front".
who's the new Petain? I don't think it's Le Pen.
It clearly is, and his party was founded by waffen-ss and collaborationists among nostalgics of the colonialist era.
> waffen-ss and collaborationists among nostalgics of the colonialist era. and unashamed war criminals from the Algerian war.
the french military even attempted 2 coups during the algerian war, because apparently theyd rather keep sending thousands of young men to their deaths to keep the land if it means destroying french democracy in the process.
another reason to vote, then
Need a former war hero
We can lend France a newly Euro MP and dismissed general if they want
Dumb Foreigner Questions: I thought only the top 2 candidates head into the 2nd Round? Why is there now talk of a 3-way battle in the 2nd Round and urging the non-RN guys who ranked 3rd to withdraw in order to defeat RN? 2nd Round now has 3 people in it instead of 2? Wasn't the 2-round system devised to prevent and reduce exactly this sort of FPTP flaw from happening and save voters on the same spectrum the trouble or needing to wrangle, tactical vote and negotiate?
To add to what u/HeyIAmInfinity correctly said, it's 12.5% of the registered electorate; so if the participation is not 100%, the actual threshold is higher. This time, with 67.5% of participation, the threshold was around 18.5%. So any candidate with more votes has made it to the second round; next week, we'll even have 5 *quadrangulaires* as we call them, i.e second rounds with 4 candidates. We never got to a 2nd round with more than 4 candidates left, but in theory we could go as high as 8 (100% particicipation, all 8 get exactly 12.5% of the vote).
Alright, I see. Was it always like this? Where whoever got more than 12.5% could join the top 2 candidates into the 2nd round? And any math nerd care to explain why this particular number as a threshold?
The French 5th Republic started in 1958, the % to reach was initially 5%. (And in that configuration, in 1958, we got one race with 6 candidates reaching the second term). In 1966 the % was increased to 10%; and in 1976 to 12.5%. The math reason seems to simply be "100 divided by a natural number" (8 currently).
What happens when it's a triangular/quadrangular if no one wins 50% after the second round?
Highest score gets you elected, even if it's below 50%.
Not French but for my understanding, it’s a majority wins first round, if not all that receive more then 12.5% of the vote go to 2nd round
I hope RN crushes and wins a majority. European politicians have had a solid decade or more to actually hear the people when they talk about their biggest concerns which is migration and they have chosen to ignore it. So this will be about their last chance at a wake up call is watching Europeans vote for ultra right leaning parties who at least talk about and seem willing to offer solutions. I have no clue why these politicians have chosen to ignore the majority voice but they will now suffer the consequences of it. Lets just hope other nations can take heed as ultra right wing parties grow in all the polls. I wouldnt hold my breath though.
They won’t win a majority, very unlikely. And even if they do, this is not a presidential election, just legislative. Do you know who is France’s PM?
Brexit already happened and Meloni already won in Italy, is it still not clear that these are just populist talking points and that they're not interested in actually dealing with immigration once they get into power? Why do you want people to keep falling for these empty promises? edit: not interested or, more likely, don't know how
That just means they are not nationalist enough and will be replaced by more nationalist leadership. It's still a major achievement that right promises are being promised. There just needs to be more pressure on them to realize it. We don't know if Le Pen is not just another liberal. She has to prove herself.
You are right that this risks happening But they still won't solve anything Since you know what stands to the right of the Tories, of Meloni, of Reassemble National? Well ok, the right of Zemmour for France Ideologies that care even less about fulfilling promises or what the people want. Who if they get elected once, won't ever be elected out.
> That just means they are not nationalist enough lol there is so much bullshit in your comment, you can fertilise an entire field.
I‘m just happy Macron got crushed. Guy is just doing neoliberal politics and yapping. But apparently thats good politics around here.
yeah it's funny how europe sub is a sort by controversial kind of sub, upside down world haha =).
Protest Voting is one of the stupidest things anyone could do. It's not even about policies, it's just "those guys didnt do that well, with the pure power of hope these guys will probably do better"
sometimes the only option is is, lier, lier, lier, proably a lier but i HOPE they arn't.
I am sad though that we can see decades of social progress unwind right before our eyes just because governing parties were so full of themselves and refused to listen to the people. It will likely not happen in France as RN is pretty mild but for example in my country (Poland) last 8 years were a complete disaster which we will be dealing with for a very long time. The job of a politician is to take care of interest of people they represent. "Is migration in current form beneficial for the people in my country?" should be the only question of concern. It wasn't and then people thought "if it's not in our interest then whose interest?" It's an easy message to sell and it will continue selling well.
RN is not mild at all, they have many ties to recent and older neo-nazi, fascist militia and organisations, some of these groups have been dismantled, some of their members are in prison because of terrorist attacks they were planning, or did Also let's not forget that the party founders are literal SS, OAS members, white supremacists. And that Marine herself was bought up in such familial context And lots of party members get regularly exposed for past tweets, posts, interview excerpts where they say vile homophobic, transphobic, pro-life, racist stuff They are rotten
RN is not so mild as they portray themselves. Bardella may be more moderate but Le Pen is just putting on a mask.
I think Le Pen wants power more than anything, and will moderate her positions if necessary to win. But I’m not sure that’s true of a lot of the party membership. If the RN comes to power, it would not surprise me to see it fail to hold together.
Speaking of Italy, Meloni has managed to keep her party together because most of the success is on here. The existence of rivals with RN will make it difficult for the party to stay united but it could also allow them to put on a façade of moderation on one side and to appeal to the extremists on the other.
Meloni also has an easier job in that her party only recently exploded in popularity. Ergo, it literally hasn't had time to develop currents, had very few well known faces before the election. At least, ones electable or not clearly incompetent. Apart for Meloni herself. This does mean her greater risk, is to follow all other "came from nothing" parties that won before. The Five Stars Movement, Salvini, even Berlusconi or Renzi in some way. Falling back to nothing when it fails to satisfy voters. RN may have the advantage of being an older party, so it has a history of cohesion and no risk of outright losing the majority of voters, since they should have won some fidelity. But also the disadvantage of any established party, that of being composed by many different visions each with their visionaries.
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Let me guess: you're an American and vote for Trump.
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Turn off Fox News, you idiot, and see things for how you really are.
You talk like a terrorist.
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Europeans and their censorship =P
Let's go National Rally! We got this
Interesting to say the least, not just for France. Will the establishment finally understand the magnitude of frustration among European societies, or will they (again) pretend that everything is fine and continue anti-european politics?
Nah, journalists will keep writing articles like „Why are people voting right suddenly??“ and anti right parties will keep yapping about fighting right but not do proper politics. They dont understand that its not about being racist but that people simply cant accept anymore that their lives are getting worse lol
>They dont understand that its not about being racist but that people simply cant accept anymore that their lives are getting worse lol But life under a RN government isn't going to get better. RN is known to be economically populist, but now that they're quite close to possibly having a PM, they're already showing they'll be economically neoliberal (not very different from neoliberal Macron) in order to appease business owners. In short, RN has tried to craft the lie that they care about the people, but they don't. They're just bigots who will be economically neoliberal, like Meloni.
It wont - but its the same issue in all of Europe. You have politicans like Macron who are delusional about their own countries problems, and make bad politics. So do you vote RN and hope these politicans come up with better politics already or do you keep voting for them cause they tell you not to vote for the bad guys and continue doing their bad policy? If I was French I would vote against Macron aswell, that guys just a talker im tired of him.
I know what you mean: I also strongly despise Macron because his politics are just so... anti-people. Like at least he's not as bigoted as the RN, but he still hurts the working class a lot and his government has been kind of anti-immigration as well. To put it bluntly, I think he's thoroughly right-wing liberal, and I don't like that. However, RN is simply not an alternative to Macron. They're not only going to try to destroy human rights in as many ways as possible (against LGBT people, against migrants, against workers in spite of the populist veneer that has given them a plurality of votes of the working class), but they're also going to have the shitty neoliberal economics that have created this mess most people are fed up with. In short, I'm a leftist and I think the best alternative is the left.
The establishment hardly care about normal people, they want them angry and divided. Not a single 'right wing' populist actually does anything when they come into power
I don't think so. Last night, when the results where published; the leader of the Ecologists just broke down in tears on French tv because the Minister of Economy (LR) announced he would give no instruction to vote next. Meaning some people fully expect the usual call to barrage against RN, which would reward NFP. NFP now is an unlikely alliance of people who despise each other, who don't agree on anything, but pretend to be the left. One of these party, LFI, is plain repulsive for far too many people: antisemitic, caters to islamists, acts like a dictatorship, never compromise even to stop the awful retirement plan, etc. Some of their députés are also plain idiots (how else to call Boyard or Soudais ?). And so much more... So, the leader of the Ecologists, it appears, comes from a place which has elected the RN since the past deputation. And is here crying, saying the minister doesn't understand what is he saying, what it means to the people, etc. She knows, supposedly, because of where she comes from. What did she do to answer to those poor people ? She launched the European campaign with a "booty dance", to boost positivity. And that's pretty much it. Oh, and she caters to islamists too, is against nuclear power, wants to ruin our agriculture, etc. There will be no wake-up call. Especially now that LFI has been elected by a large margin everywhere islamists and Parisians live.
> So, the leader of the Ecologists, it appears, comes from a place which has elected the RN since the past deputation. And is here crying, saying the minister doesn't understand what is he saying, what it means to the people, etc. She knows, supposedly, because of where she comes from. There is the irony. They have elected the RN a long time ago and they keep doing it. So they love it. What is there to cry about ? democracy ?
If they still don't understand, we gonna have to force them
As I understand it the left-wing alliance and Macron's block will withdraw their candidates wherever they only landed in third place. So with them consolidating around each other's candidates won't the second round become a complete wipeout for RN? They are the single biggest party by itself but that doesn't really matter in a first-past-the-post system since they don't have any allies to help them across the finish line.
> So with them consolidating around each other's candidates won't the second round become a complete wipeout for RN? After looking at the figures, with the same participation and people following those instructions, I couldn't find a single case (among the dozens I checked) where RN could win on the second turn (so they would just have the representatives elected straight from the first turn). So while I prefer to stay cautious, it is still the likely outcome.
Depends. Left wing will only withdraw when FN is first and their candidate is third. Marcon bloc should only withdraw, when they’re being third place and second is not LFI. (The biggest party in the left wing bloc) LR was not called to withdraw. It’s not as many as you might think. For example there are 5 four way ties. No one will withdraw according to those rules. 18 constituencies are #1FN #2LR and #3NFP(Leftwing blog). 244 constituencies are thee way ties between the big 3. Just around 100 of those fall in the categories i mentioned.
How can you have a tie? There are just too many votes for things to be exactly a tie?
In France the parties that pass to the second round are those which have received at least as many votes as 12,5% of the total electorate. This is circumvented if a party in the first round receives at least 50% of the votes and at least as many votes as 25% of the electorate. When we refer to "three-way ties" in this election, it means that three parties passed to the second round.
If it works, then yes. But you're assuming that voters would just follow the withdrawing candidates' instructions. That's not guaranteed. Centrists and Leftists hate each other.
It's quite a bit more complicated than that. RN is very strongly despised beyond their core voters, even conservative voters (typically voting Les Républicains) have been seen voting left to avoid a RN candidate in the past. Next Sunday is going to be wild, no one can predict which direction it will go.
This assumes the alliance actually happens. Right now many Macronist candidates say they will not withdraw in favour of Mélenchonists. So the alliance is not a guarantee.
People actually rarely listen to what their candidates appeal to report their votes. I think the macroniste will likely not vote, those who will will clearly vote left. Historically, far right in France does not increase in the second turn. The only people who vote far right second turn are the ones who did first turn.
Le Pen in the presidential went from 23% to 41%. RN in the legislative went from 18% to 17%. Too early to say.
Yeah but also, RN lost to the most hated party there is.
Unpopular opinion: Macron should annul the elections, ban the RN and repress any protests that come after.
That's very democratic and left-wing of you. Maybe communist left-wing. How about respecting a democratic process and it's results?
And if the people that should do the "repressing" for Macron don't agree?
We blackmail them.
And by doing so, becoming the thing they didn't want in the first place?
Most democratic redditor
Honestly, it's kind of a dilemma. You know that if the far right party comes to power, the democracy is under a threat, ao allowing them to come to power, means allowing democracy to fall under that threat. At the same time, not allowing that party to come to power is against democracy, and you will demolish the democracy yourself by doing it.
No it's not, you can't force democracy, if the french want RN so bad they deserve to get it.
RN isn't anti-democratic though
RN swept the North and Mediterranean. NFP east Ile de France. Only ENS strongholds left are Britanny, west Ile de France and Lille. Second round will be very interesting. LR stronger than expected. In nearly 50 three way ties with RN and left bloc. They will decide if RN gets a majority or not.
> Only ENS strongholds left are Britanny In large part because NFP put LFI candidates there, despite LFI being hated there; Brittons usually vote socdem. There is a 4-way tie in 29-08 (RN/ENS/Leftwing candidate/LFI).
Sure. Just looking at the map. Brittany also has NFP and RN pockets. But unlike all other Regions, ENS actually has plenty first round winners there. Not counting the occasional constituencies here and there. And where outside those 3 regions and abroad do we expect ENS having a chance to actually win some of those seats? Without left wing people voting for ENS in the second round to prevent RN, they would drop below 50 seats.
> But unlike all other Regions, ENS actually has plenty first round winners there. Correct, but they overperformed because the NFP candidate was from LFI and LFI is hated there (and in many other place). NFP is an electoral alliance and nothing more; I would have expected things to look different if the NFP candidate were from PS > Brittany also has (...) RN pockets. This looks deceiving because these consituencies in Brittany have 40~60% left+ENS voters split into multiple candidates. I expect stuff to look different after the runoffs.
Everything looks different under other rules. First choice picture was painted. Second round will most likely be a shit show. Just don't know which one yet. RN getting 300++ seats or just above 200. You can't know what intentions have more weight and who are more people. Not wanting RN in power or being done with strategic voting in the second round resulting in getting politics you don't want.
Proper official numbers of votes for the 1st turn: https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/index.html Media outlets tend to skew numbers around, I wouldn’t trust them as much as the ministry of interior itself.
Bravo France, bravo.
I don’t mean to be a dick, but it’s amazing Europe hasn’t seen this coming. The warning signs were there with Brexit and unfortunately I can see this only continuing to be an issue across Europe. The reality is too many governments have focused on culture and bureaucracy over tangibly improving people’s lives. Now the snake oil salesmen are taking power. Very sad to see the right making gains - if it makes you feel any better the U.K. are a few years ahead of you and now finally returning back to competence
The leftist parties have either been ignoring or have been afraid to acknowledge the issues people have been facing. It's the same in the US. No one wants to talk about immigration on the left in any meaningful way and they just give votes to the right as a result. It's sad.
That's just bullcrap presented by rightwing parties. The far-right stronholds aren't even living amongst immigrants. It's almost always suburban or rural areas, areas where fear of the unknown is much stronger. Anyway the far-right frames immigration as the main problem while the main problems are topics like housing, cost of living/purchasing power/inflation and population ageing. The far-right blames these on immigration, while this is at worst a drop in an already overflowing bucket. The lack of social initiatives on housing, the privatization of key infrastructure (energy and public transport) and tax cuts for major companies and rich people have a bigger impact on our lives than immigration. On top of that, the only reason why so many people see immigration as a major issue is because politicians convince people that this is an important issue. In the previous elections in Belgium, our right-wing party (N-VA) campaigned against immigration and refugees (Marakesh). Because of this campaign, they made people believe that immigration was indeed the major issue. So people voted for the most anit-immigration party, and thus they lost votes to the far-right. In this year's elections in the NL the center-right and right offered legitimatcy to the far-right, in the hope to gain voted. They lost votes against the far-right. Similar mistake N-VA made in Belgium. Back to Belgium this year. The far-right was expected to reach a record high, becoming the biggest party in Flanders and even Belgium as a whole. N-VA learned from their past mistake and from the NL. campaign. N-VA ignored immigration and stuck to economic issues. They focussed the attention away from immigration back to the main issue: economics. The far-right was forced to give economic solutions and best they could do was "stop/reverse immigration and all economic issues are gone". People aren't stupid. They know it's not that simple. At the same time the greens and the center-right cornered the far-right by bringing up the subject of LGBT. The greens have a (now out-going) minister who is trans. The (de-facto) head of the center-left is gay. So when the subject of LGBT came up, the far-right was cornered and forced to reveal their thoughts in the matter. They were forced to take-off their mask and reveal themselves to be anti-lgbt. Everyone know someone who is gay, and the (trans) minister of the greens is very competent so personal attacks against her are a no-go. It's one thing to hate immigrants you never met because you live in your rural town. It's another to vote for someone who's against your respected friend or family member. End result. Make the far-right debate real issues. Take away their weapon of immigration. Mention it, but focus on the real issues and you'll see them lose votes. Play their game and you'll lose.
Belgium isn't France. [https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/legislatives/resultats-des-legislatives-2024-age-revenus-profession-qui-a-vote-quoi-au-premier-tour-20240701](https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/legislatives/resultats-des-legislatives-2024-age-revenus-profession-qui-a-vote-quoi-au-premier-tour-20240701) "Le score du RN repose non seulement sur la forte mobilisation de ses soutiens traditionnels (ouvriers, employés...), mais aussi sur un élargissement de son socle. Ainsi le parti nationaliste arrive en tête chez les retraités avec 31% des suffrages (contre 12% aux législatives de 2002), chez les femmes (32% contre 17% en 2022), chez les plus aisés (32% contre 15% en 2022). Il progresse fortement chez les moins de 35 ans (32% contre 18% en 2022), ou encore dans les grandes villes (28% contre 13% en 2022). Les moins bonnes performances sont enregistrées chez les cadres et les plus diplômés, mais là encore le score du RN a doublé (de 11% à 22%)." Also: [https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/entrees-irregulieres-dans-l-ue-les-chiffres-de-2023-au-plus-haut-depuis-2016-20240116](https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/entrees-irregulieres-dans-l-ue-les-chiffres-de-2023-au-plus-haut-depuis-2016-20240116) And: [https://www.leparisien.fr/faits-divers/paris-les-autorites-sinquietent-de-la-montee-en-puissance-des-mineurs-non-accompagnes-delinquants-09-01-2023-LBBSFMR6IFGZRDYN6GUI7GKOMY.php](https://www.leparisien.fr/faits-divers/paris-les-autorites-sinquietent-de-la-montee-en-puissance-des-mineurs-non-accompagnes-delinquants-09-01-2023-LBBSFMR6IFGZRDYN6GUI7GKOMY.php)
Well said
Cant wait for this sub to now dogpile on France for electing a wrong party to power and calls to strip them of their European card for the inevitable rule of law violations (most of them non-issues or made up). Oh wait, it wont happen „because its France”.
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Being anti-mass migration and anti-religion is a good thing. Being pro-mass migration especially when it comes from culturally incompatible places is a dumb policy and will always lead to this exact type of party taking over.
They are pro religion, what are you saying... A big part of their electors are Catholics, without them they won't go anywhere. They are against freedom of religion, not religion. There is currently no mass immigration in Europe. It's not because you keep saying it that it becomes true. France has around 10% of its population composed of immigrants, and of those, less than 10% illegals, which means you have less than 1% of the population being illegal immigrants. If that's massive, well I'm not sure what to say then. Western Europe relies on immigration for its growth, it's been like this for 70 years. If you stop that, we will get hit by massive recession in less than 10 years.
> anti-religion is a good thing. Chill out, Stalin.
You anger them enough they have a Bastille day. Hope you don't sneer and insult their culture. Akira they might start up the trundle against Muslim and leftist anti French hordes.
Sorry but no. The party doesn't want to ban Islam, it wants to apply the secular state (which doesn't mean they want to ban Islam at all), limit the numbers of illegal immigrants entering the country, and not let binational people get some (supposedly? Really unclear...) important (again, what's important? Politics ? Is a firefighter important???) government job (this doesn't only apply to Muslims but everyone, even non Islamic country I think? But again, this last point is so unclear and is definitely dumb) I'm not saying it's a good party, at the opposite. Some stuff is absolutely dumb. I'm just saying that it isn't really about banning religions, enslave immigrants and murdering people they don't like.
> again, what's important? Politics ? Is a firefighter important??? Watched an interview with an economist who used to be advisor of Le Pen. Apparently that represents just a few hundred jobs. Think "top secret" kind of jobs. Which to me sounds fairly reasonable?
I also believe it's for this kind of job, but it was really unclear. We can just guess at this point
To be fair, they didn't say "important", they said "strategic". So probably Defense and Industry. Thing is, it is plain racist. Why ? Because as of today, there is an investigation towards everyone applying for these kinds of jobs. Towards their family as well. And it's ever ongoing, meaning you may be 12 years into the job, if anyone from your family travels somewhere to watch( the USA are on the list for example, for the industrial spying aspect), or if you talk online with someone from another country with some keywords, you will be auditioned. I wish journalists just did their job here. With the current system, people can be binational and get the job if there's nothing to see here. It's understood that for some jobs (ex: diplomacy), it's sometimes even better to know another country very well. Just forbidding someone to get a job because of their binationality is 1/ stupid, 2/racist, 3/ wouldn't pass the Conseil Constitutionnel.
Exactly. I wish the left and center could have addressed voters' issues with safety, immigration, secularism, etc. more effectively. Now we're facing a party that wants to eliminate taxes for everyone under 30, and who has binationals in their own party apparatus but somehow wants to eliminate them in government jobs every where else.
That is misinformation, no one of RN wants to ban Islam. On the contrary, Le Pen has said Islam can be compatible with French society
The hangover is hard ...
For fuck's sakes , Macron and the Left have 48% of the vote together, 14% more than the RN, France has not suddenly turned Nazi like this thread suggests - it's just that anyone who even holds mildly racist/right wing views and prolly the boomers have consolidated behind the RN. The lesson here is to stop appeasing the Right Wing- they have tasted blood and will never vote for Macron going forward, idk how French politics works but if Macron and the Left are serious about stopping RN- alliances are the way to go
So Macron has to form a coalition with people from the radical left whom he has nothing in common with (from the EU to the war in Ukraine), to prevent the RN from having a majority because of their position on EU and Ukraine which is the same of the radical left?
That is what the mandate of the people suggests, yes. They're tired of neo-liberalism and want solutions , now it's upto Macron and the Left to come together and provide solutions, or let RN rule- the people's opinion cannot be clearer
>That is what the mandate of the people suggests, yes. I wouldn't think so >now it's upto Macron and the Left to come together They have nothing in common. The main problem of the RN is that they're pro-Russian and anti-EU, and Melenchon has the same issues.
Let's be real, it's been over an year and a half of the Russia-Ukraine war, people's attentions have shifted to Israel-Palestine already. People don't care anymore, I'm willing to bet a good amount of money that a large part of Europe atp would be happy to let Russia annexe Ukraine if it meant lower Gas Prices. Le Monde wrote an article about this- how the war was not even an issue in this election
Dude you're Indian, you don't understand European politics. And you're also not informed: gas prices have already fallen, we're already weaned off Russian gas and we're buying from other countries
I understand numbers and politics, the numbers are there for everyone to see. Or are European voters so stupid that they've voted for people who don't represent their interests? I'm not saying Europe doesn't sympathise with Ukraine, I'm saying that the war is bottom of the barrel for most people in terms of priorities- especially the young voters who are more concerned about Israel-Palestine
Why would you think voters care more about a war in a different continent than a war on their doorstep?
Melenchon has been pretty vocal in favour of Palestine since Oct 7th while everyone knows what his views on Russia are, yet their coalition is no 2. You're better off asking this question to French voters and young Europeans.
Depends on the region. Eastern EU would rather die than the prospect of falling into Russia's sphere of influence ever again. Maybe apart from Hungary.
>Macron and the Left have 48% of the vote together Add in what's left of the traditional right (~10%) and various centrist groups, and it's theoretically possible to have a non-far right coalition if everyone gets together.
Russian Noosphere mind control is working perfectly. Monolith in all it's glory. This world is fucked
I got that ref. STALKER is a Ukrainien game btw.
The noosphere concept is a Russian sci-fi cliche. The first STALKER game is basically just a mish mash of old Russian sci-fi ideas and 2000s fps tropes.
>The first STALKER game is basically just a mish mash of old Russian sci-fi ideas It's actually just the concept of the book "Roadside Picnic" expanded with inspiration from the movie "Stalker" by Tarkovsky (which is also based on the book).
I know, But in the time of USSR every single "satellite" republic had main headquarters/orders from moscow. So various experiments mainly are being ordered by russia(inc Chornobyl "nuclear plant tests",etc, and then keep it in secret/lie that nothing is happening as much as possible)
Absolutely correct. Even nuclear plants were under USSR control :)
What the fuck happened in the comment section in here lmao
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Quotes from the winners of this election (they are all real , you can fact check) 2013 Gilles Bourdouleix : "Hitler did not kill enough gypsies" 2014 Brigitte Barèges : " A black candidate on my list is a stain" 2018 Joseph Martin : " Gas gave justice to the victims of Shoah"
Joseph Martin's comment was a joke about Robert Faurisson (a famous Holocaust denier)'s death. Because at the time he was rumored to have been killed by a gas leak.
The best one for me is from Jean-Marie Le Pen, I don't know when he said it but the fact that he repeated it again and again and even now his party condones it : "Gas showers are but a small detail of WW2"
> "Gas showers are but a small detail of WW2" Aint that factually correct tho? Not all nazi work camps were death camps and not all death camps had the gas showers. People were not only gassed, but also shot and worked to death. Meanwhile, as the name suggest the war was worldwide. Gas showers, west front, Nanjing, atomics, and the list atrocities and civilian suffering just goes on and on. Gas showers were brutal and tragic part of world war 2, but to elevate it above all the other tragedies, to insinuate that they were the core tragedy and suffering of WW2 reeks of hubris at worst and lack of education at best. I could see how the adjective "small" could ruffle some feathers and injure some pride, but when put against the World War, everything is small.
You're right about the showers not being the biggest thing about WW2, but that coming from someone who created a political party with literal nazis, people who worked in the Waffen-SS, as well as people who are in a far-right terrorist group that killed a lot of people in Algeria during the Algerian war of independence, is clearly antisemitic.
Yeah but Jean-Marie is not running in this election?
Nope, but he's still the grand father of the current head of the RN's gf, the guy that will be Prime Minister if RN has the majority in the elections. The RN is kind of like a family thing, Jean Marie started it, then his daughter took over now it's her niece's bf who's the leader.
Fair point
I'm sure he had no influence whatsoever on the current head of RN
From fighting nazis to electing nazis...
The word “nazi” doesn’t mean a single thing anymore. RN is a lot of dumb things but nazis? Lmao
Shhh, this is Reddit. "Everyone I disagree with is literary Hitler" is basic tactic And then they wonder why people don't give shit when someone is called nazi. "Nazi inflation" is real