>[Macron on the dissolution: "I threw my grenade with the pin pulled at their feet. Now we'll see how they manage."](https://www.valeursactuelles.com/politique/macron-sur-la-dissolution-je-leur-ai-balance-ma-grenade-degoupillee-dans-les-jambes-maintenant-on-va-voir-comment-ils-sen-sortent#:~:text=Je%20pr%C3%A9pare%20%C3%A7a%20depuis%20des%20semaines%2C%20et%20je%20suis%20ravi,ils%20s'en%20sortent.%20%C2%BB)
This Macron?
I think that an under appreciated aspect of the rise of the far right is the fact that other parties kinda just let them get away with using ruthless and under handed tactics.
It feels good to see at least someone not take this anymore, and just pull the rug under them the moment they get into the spotlight.
The same thing has happened a lot in the eastern German states in elections where this kind of election system is used. The right-wing candidates win the largest minority in the first round but then lose the run-off elections as the entire rest of the political spectrum unites behind the opposing candidates, whoever they may be.
Well, whatever works.
...for as long as it works. The left seriously have to address the concerns of the protest voters, though. The problem won't go away.
I can only guess that this was his fundamental gamble.
Since France doesn’t exactly *love* far right, Macron could only hope that people weren’t yet too accepting of the idea of them winning and instead used current neutral popularity to get as many people as he could while risking to loose seats.
Overall a sound strategy.
Not sure if snap election means that the new government will have additional time or is it until the original election date but either way a substantial win.
He just said that he doesn't want to become PM but would be okay with foreign minister. I could see it work, and thanks to his experience as president it could be a relatively good choice, but that's still hilarious to think about the reversed roles between him and Macron.
His spoken French isn’t great either, he sounds like he’s struggling to find his words. How a man this bad at public speaking got president is baffling. And how he spent half his life speaking publicly and not improving is equally baffling.
His spoken French isnt great in front of cameras.
I had the opportunity to listen to him at some event in 2022, i was confused because he was actually really good at public speaking.
Hollande has always dreamed of being minister of budget, finance or economy, it has been taken away from him even during Mitterand.
So it would indeed be hilarious if he become minister of economy under Macron
Macron called this snap legislative election following the European elections where his party lost a lot of seats. Different motive where attributed as to why he called for these snap elections and a couple of them said it was so the Far right party score their quick win now and not in the upcoming presidential election later on.
So get rid of the protest vote and let go of some steam, show the far right they don't hold power over the country and the price paid is what you saw above.
Macron lost his majority seat in the French assembly that was barely holding together to begin with and will now have to assemble a coalition gouvernement with the left for the next 3 years.
Basically yes. They don't hold a majority either and there is some common ground on principle that they could agree on. Still going to get a LOT of political wrangling to get anything done.
Honestly I hope they can keep the wrangling to a minimum because from my perspective the wrangling the german goverment is doing right now is providing a lot ammunition for our far right and center right party
They might be able to form a one-year coalition government who will pass no major law but will be able to do the minimum to keep the country running (just a bit more than a mere "affaires courantes" government, as such a type of government would be so insanely limited as to be unable to even trigger a state of emergency in case of a terror attack during the olympics).
Besides that, I don't really see it happening. Macron is centre-right (based on French's overton window) while the biggest component of the left-wing coalition is arguably far-left, at the very least very very anti-right. They don't have enough common ground to form a serious coalition and they hate each other's guts.
Besides, I think they both believe that such a broad coalition, should it exist and turn unpopular, would leave the RN as basically the only alternative, ensuring them a landslide victory in three years.
How, though? Sorry for my obliviousness from the UK but what happened? I thought the right were going to slaughter? I thought Melanchon’s wing was in disarray?
Did all this turn around simple because they formed Front Populaire? Can any of this leftist success actually be attributed to Macron?
The official support for RN by Russia was probably a death kiss. I dont really understand what their goal was.
The most difficult task will be to understand french people. I dont think our politicians are able to do it...
death kiss was literally all rn candidates who got all their dirty laundry exposed this week. Ive seen at LEAST 10 candidates that were exposed for supporting nazi ideology (one of the candidate literally took a picture with a nazi cap on her head and posted it, all smiles) or other random stuff (one candidate has been convicted in 1995 for taking hostages armed, another one is under guardianship because mentally unstable LOL)
Yeah tbh some of them didn't want any interview cuz they are dumb af and can't argue beside "ImIgRaNtS". Damn some of them haven't revealed their faces.
Lol maybe they have an alarm that warns them when there is a new post that contains the words "immigrants" or "islam" in the title and never visit the other posts
They always try to maintain a facade of not actually being far right and ideas of far right being actually reasonable and mainstream at the same time.
You won't find them openly supporting literal nazis but they will always try to normalize the ideas of nazis.
I am expecting a lot of "people" here saying if far right won the elections x y would have been better, in a few months.
I don't think that changed the votes much tbh. The RN-Russia link has been known for a long long time by most voters. Most people that vote RN don't care about international policy.
IMHO it was to protect the real cntre of power from the far right: the presidency.
LIke in the US the french president has a lot of power, so letting FN have a few years in power to show they are even worse then everybody else could make people think twice voting for them again in the next presidential elections.
Wait two years, every government that manages to somehow gets into power with that mess of an assembly will be reviled by the time of the next presidential elections.
yeah but the Young Wing of Meloni's party is openly fascist (not only the youngs obviously) and in general our government literally says that undercover journalism is "one of this things that regimes do", they passed an "electoral law" that discourage every attempt at creating a party from popular initiative... I could go on for hours...
it's not that we not have a totalitarian regime but things are not getting better here
I like to believe that Macron somehow meticulously calculated everything and just sipped on his cup of wine watching the dominoes fall towards his assured result.
4D chess with no clear wins. Everybody can claim some level of victory. It's more about denying some other side a clear win.
RN got enough seats to be the biggest party by itself without being anywhere close to a majority so they will not have to be in any government. Given that the New Front party grouping would have more seats, RN can just stand aside and avoid any cohabitation or coalition government mess.
Now Macron's party has to form some sort of government, possibly with New Front including with communists. There is no way in hell that will go over well with his centrist supporters or could become a stable government.
The next election round including presidential is in 3 years, enough time for this to become a very public fighting cabinet mess.
France's 2-round elections... In the first round everybody votes its preferred candidate, which resulted in most votes for RN. Then in the second round the top 2 or top 3 candidates are set against each other, and all moderate voters vote for the non-RN candidate as their 'second best' choice.
Moderate parties reinforce this by agreeing to withdraw candidates in certain districts, so they don't split the moderate vote. Imagine in the first round the Left candidate getting 25%, the Center candidate getting 20% and the Far-right getting 30%, in the second round the Center withdraws, and now the Left candidate gets 40% of the vote, while the Far-right gets 35% - so the Left wins.
And it wasn’t « in certain districts ». Almost everywhere there were 3 party left with the far-right, the one that was third (left or right), withdrew their candidate.
I more meant "the greater good as they interpret it". It would be unheard of where I live to pull a candidate, even if it would mean the constituency is better-represented, and this applies to both left and right.
Different electoral methods and left wing coalition.
European is a single turn proportional election where the left went divided.
General elections are first past the post in 2 turns in 577 constituency, where the left was united. Plus, when the RN was first, votes usually went to the candidate best placed to beat him, no matter the party, and if 3 candidate qualified for the 2nd round, the 3rd place removed his candidacy to help beat the RN. I myself am a left winger, and in my constituency it was RN vs Macronist candidate and I voted agaisnt the RN candidate. In other it was the right voting for the left.
Its nitpicking but France doesn't use a First past the Post system, that's a big part why that whole dynamic could happen at all. FPTP specifically refers to a one-round, most-votes-wins system like in the UK or the US. France uses a non-FPTP majoritarian system.
Always hard for me to judge, in Belgium we have compulsory elections. Tho the 10 euro fine hasn't been enforced since the 80s, last month was seen as a bad turnout of 90.01%.
It is not exactly FPTP for the parliamentary elections. On the 1st round you qualify if you have more than 12.5% of votes. So you can have 2 or 3 or even 4 candidates crossingthe threshold.
On the second round it is FPTP.
> where the left was united.
A bold move to put squabbles aside to deal with the great issues of our time instead of leaving it to billionaires, populists and fascists.
Maybe we should try it in more places
Yeah, it was great to see, especially taking the name of the Front Populaire, an alliance of left wing parties in 1936 that was formed against fascist leagues and gave us paid holidays, collective agreements, lower work time....
Now I just hope they stay together
A few things, first there was high turn out, so assuming people trying to stop RN. Second, RN actually did well in the first round, so the left made an alliance to drop out of every situation where they were eating each others votes so that a left would win over RN in the second round. Third, there is no other choice for the right than RN now, the republicans are dead and there is no semi right or centrist Conservative Party, so while people might not really want to vote far left, they feel like they have no choice since they don’t want RN (or they don’t vote)
Probably the same thing that always happens - people don't bother to vote in european elections so only radicals vote so they get crazy good results that later aren't repeated in elections with high turnover.
It's not that simple, both the European Parliament Elections and the first round of these national parliamentary elections had really high turnout. I think what has happened here in the second round was the republican front (ie. strategic withdrawals of third place contestants in order to not split the anti-RN vote) has worked extremely well.
>I don't think you understand how unpopular Macron is
All French presidents were unpopular at some point, this means nothing objectively. French people are massively critical of literally everything, yet the country is "working" compared to peers.
Macron's approval ratings in 2019 were even worse - dipping as low as 20% in some stats. This is pretty much universal to all French presidents. By the end of a president's term of office, their approval rating is lower than before election.
I think he's ended the narrative that a far-right wave is about to sweep Europe. He gained some goodwill by giving the people a chance to register their discontent with his government. He also proved that there still is a center coalition while insulating his party from the negatives of being directly in power. Would he have preferred a Labour-style massive victory? Sure. But that was never in the cards, and the hand he has now is a lot more dynamic than he had a month ago.
I'll wait until midnight to have definitive results.
At least, the far right won't raise to power. I don't know what to expect from the left but I have one wish : do your best to lower the popularity of the RN.
Something I'm concerned about. That's why I don't celebrate.
The moderate right party is in shambles, I wonder how long the left alliance will hold and what will happen to the president's party. I only hate far right and I don't have a political preference.
Macron did a huge power move here though, and Le Pen did a blunder.
If the leftist government turns out bad, it might increase Macron popularity again, not the far right.
If they do anything to control migration the far right will be extinct next elections and the same for every eu country we wouldn’t be seeing a rise in the far right popularity if not for the fear of the left to do something about uncontrolled migration
So this is what happens when people actually come to the polls en masse. From a potential absolute majority on the right to a large majority on the left!
It has more to do with 3rd place candidates dropping from the race to deny the far-right. Last week had a really high turnout but the RN was still ahead. I think it's time to bury the idea that people who don't vote wouldn't vote for the RN.
Don't forget India who slashed Modis majority when he controlled all the media and was putting opposition in prison, etc. Also let's not forget Brazil threw out Bolsanaro too. Many big democracies taking on the right.
Well Iran is still generally an Islamist dictatorship but yeah he’s the most moderate candidate that’s still approved by the supreme leader and best possible candidate
This is what happens when the majority get off their bums and actually go to vote, instead of letting the extremists decide the fate of the country. Pay attention USA!
Not really, In the uk labour only got 34% of the total votes. Reform (our right wing party) had a huge increase in votes, finished 3rd overall. The way our system works makes it look better for labour than it actually was.
In France, areas that had multiple left and centre candidates forced people to step down so the vote wasn’t split. The right wing vote didn’t get weaker it’s just the left didn’t split their votes.
If Europe doesn’t get a grip on immigration right wing parties will be winning by the next election cycles, they’re right on the edge and their votes are growing every election not getting smaller.
Amazing outcome. The future looks a little less bleak. Now the US.
Edit: some people are telling me the left wing parties are pro-Putin or have many problems as well. I don't know enough to judge. I'm pro whoever is pro-climate, pro-EU and pro-equality.
2nd edit: a lot of other people are telling me it's bullshit.
The left wing party is not pro putin. The RN, on the other hand, is *very* vocal about their support for Russia and against Ukraine.
Don’t let misinformation trick you..
This is my neighbour England, he is pain in my assholes
I win penalty shootout, he must win penalty shootout
I elect left, he must elect left
I can cook et cannot great success !
gonna be honest, i don’t like macron but this was probably the best decision. it was a relief to hear that the far right performed poorly and hopefully we can see a decline in right wing populism across europe as a whole
To non-French like me: The image you provided shows an estimate of seats (sièges) in the French National Assembly from a recent poll by Ipsos, dated July 2024. The estimates are broken down by political groups:
1. **Nouveau Front Populaire**: 172 to 192 seats
- LFI (La France Insoumise): 68 to 74 seats
- PCF (Parti Communiste Français): 10 to 12 seats
- Les Écologistes: 32 to 36 seats
- PS (Parti Socialiste): 63 to 69 seats
- Divers gauche: 13 to 16 seats
2. **Ensemble!**: 150 to 170 seats
- Renaissance: 95 to 105 seats
- MoDem: 31 to 37 seats
- Horizons: 24 to 28 seats
3. **RN et alliés**: 132 to 152 seats
- RN (Rassemblement National): 120 to 136 seats
- LR (soutenus par RN): 12 to 16 seats
4. **LR/DVD**: 57 to 67 seats
- LR: 57 to 67 seats
5. **Others**: 8 to 11 seats
- UDI/Divers centre: 6 to 8 seats
- Autres: 8 to 11 seats
This visual representation gives an overview of the estimated distribution of seats among different political factions in the French National Assembly based on the poll data.
Emmanuel Macron's party is **Renaissance**, which is part of the **Ensemble!** coalition. According to the image, the Renaissance party is estimated to have 95 to 105 seats. The **Ensemble!** coalition as a whole is estimated to have 150 to 170 seats.
Marine Le Pen's party is the **Rassemblement National (RN)**. According to the image, the RN and its allies are estimated to have 132 to 152 seats, with the RN itself having 120 to 136 seats. The allies, including LR supported by RN, are estimated to have 12 to 16 seats.
Well done my French neighbours! Being from Belgium I absolutely dreaded a fascist party clinging power so close to home but I'm getting quite emotional watching the celebrations on television, this is an absolutely massive confidence booster for all left-thinking people across western Europe. Vive la France!
We all dodged a bullet here. Thank god the voters stepped back and kept their sanity.
But we shouldn't celebrate too early, RN will try again and again. Another crisis, and democracy is in peril again.
Macron’s politicking is indeed too complicated for us plebs
4-dimensional intergalactic chess.
>[Macron on the dissolution: "I threw my grenade with the pin pulled at their feet. Now we'll see how they manage."](https://www.valeursactuelles.com/politique/macron-sur-la-dissolution-je-leur-ai-balance-ma-grenade-degoupillee-dans-les-jambes-maintenant-on-va-voir-comment-ils-sen-sortent#:~:text=Je%20pr%C3%A9pare%20%C3%A7a%20depuis%20des%20semaines%2C%20et%20je%20suis%20ravi,ils%20s'en%20sortent.%20%C2%BB) This Macron?
That quote goes hard
I can't believe I read it for the first time here. The French media haven't relayed it much. Maybe they will now, given the election's outcome.
It was revealed by Le Monde though
That quote is amazing.
For real. It sounds like something said by fucking Napoleon or something lmao.
Never bet against Macroleon.
I swear this guy has gigantic balls
I think that an under appreciated aspect of the rise of the far right is the fact that other parties kinda just let them get away with using ruthless and under handed tactics. It feels good to see at least someone not take this anymore, and just pull the rug under them the moment they get into the spotlight.
The guy slaps. Not sure how I feel about him gambling like this, but it went much better than I expected.
He's a student of Gareth Southgate. His bad moves are good moves in disguise.
[Hey, as long as it works.](https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/075/794/3e1.png)
I wouldn't call Macron a literal terrorist, which can't be said about Southgate
His plans are beyond the understanding of such mere mortals as you and I, it seems.
The same thing has happened a lot in the eastern German states in elections where this kind of election system is used. The right-wing candidates win the largest minority in the first round but then lose the run-off elections as the entire rest of the political spectrum unites behind the opposing candidates, whoever they may be.
What do you mean? Elections for mayors? Because as far as I am aware, no parliamentary system in Germany has multiple rounds. Tell me if I'm mistaken!
Smaller local elections do have Stichwahlen all over Germany, not any big ones though.
Well, whatever works. ...for as long as it works. The left seriously have to address the concerns of the protest voters, though. The problem won't go away.
Also the Curse of Orbán. Most of the politicians supported by him are losing. I do wonder why.
He is more toxic to prospects of winning competitions than Harry Kane
You just jinxed it. Now England would be going to win. Fortunately, there's no such thing as a jinx.
Cause he's the Shitty Midas.
He lacked ✨*pédagogie*✨
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I can only guess that this was his fundamental gamble. Since France doesn’t exactly *love* far right, Macron could only hope that people weren’t yet too accepting of the idea of them winning and instead used current neutral popularity to get as many people as he could while risking to loose seats. Overall a sound strategy. Not sure if snap election means that the new government will have additional time or is it until the original election date but either way a substantial win.
France is so barack
Theoretically Francois Hollande could become prime minister. This would be hilarious
He just said that he doesn't want to become PM but would be okay with foreign minister. I could see it work, and thanks to his experience as president it could be a relatively good choice, but that's still hilarious to think about the reversed roles between him and Macron.
His English is so shit though. He's the one who signs his letters with "Friendly,", thinking it means "Amicalement,"...
Friendlily could work
"In friendship" is probably the most natural English equivalent for ending an email.
Oh yeah but I think it should be part of the job to make English speakers slightly uncomfortable.
His spoken French isn’t great either, he sounds like he’s struggling to find his words. How a man this bad at public speaking got president is baffling. And how he spent half his life speaking publicly and not improving is equally baffling.
It's very easy to explain: everyone hated his opponent (Sarkozy).
His spoken French isnt great in front of cameras. I had the opportunity to listen to him at some event in 2022, i was confused because he was actually really good at public speaking.
Hollande has always dreamed of being minister of budget, finance or economy, it has been taken away from him even during Mitterand. So it would indeed be hilarious if he become minister of economy under Macron
He left too unpopular, why risk a victory with someone who aided the rise of the far right.
Macron apparently playing some 4d chess.
I'm extremely OOTL, can someone please explain what's happening here and how Macron is related?
Macron called this snap legislative election following the European elections where his party lost a lot of seats. Different motive where attributed as to why he called for these snap elections and a couple of them said it was so the Far right party score their quick win now and not in the upcoming presidential election later on. So get rid of the protest vote and let go of some steam, show the far right they don't hold power over the country and the price paid is what you saw above. Macron lost his majority seat in the French assembly that was barely holding together to begin with and will now have to assemble a coalition gouvernement with the left for the next 3 years.
Nytimes is saying the left bloc won’t sit with him. Is that just a pre-negotiation bluff?
Basically yes. They don't hold a majority either and there is some common ground on principle that they could agree on. Still going to get a LOT of political wrangling to get anything done.
Honestly I hope they can keep the wrangling to a minimum because from my perspective the wrangling the german goverment is doing right now is providing a lot ammunition for our far right and center right party
They might be able to form a one-year coalition government who will pass no major law but will be able to do the minimum to keep the country running (just a bit more than a mere "affaires courantes" government, as such a type of government would be so insanely limited as to be unable to even trigger a state of emergency in case of a terror attack during the olympics). Besides that, I don't really see it happening. Macron is centre-right (based on French's overton window) while the biggest component of the left-wing coalition is arguably far-left, at the very least very very anti-right. They don't have enough common ground to form a serious coalition and they hate each other's guts. Besides, I think they both believe that such a broad coalition, should it exist and turn unpopular, would leave the RN as basically the only alternative, ensuring them a landslide victory in three years.
Ahh I see, thank you! That's encouraging overall, though.
Never underestimate him
When he said his ideas and thoughts were too complex for journalists, he was speaking the truth.
In the UK, the thoughts of pretty much anything breathing are too complex for our journalists.
TBF, British "journalism" is largely rubbish. Rupert has really done a number on truth and Western media.
It’s funny that people were. This was a genius move, and shut Le Pen’s mouth.
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How, though? Sorry for my obliviousness from the UK but what happened? I thought the right were going to slaughter? I thought Melanchon’s wing was in disarray? Did all this turn around simple because they formed Front Populaire? Can any of this leftist success actually be attributed to Macron?
Wow France, what a reaction!
The official support for RN by Russia was probably a death kiss. I dont really understand what their goal was. The most difficult task will be to understand french people. I dont think our politicians are able to do it...
death kiss was literally all rn candidates who got all their dirty laundry exposed this week. Ive seen at LEAST 10 candidates that were exposed for supporting nazi ideology (one of the candidate literally took a picture with a nazi cap on her head and posted it, all smiles) or other random stuff (one candidate has been convicted in 1995 for taking hostages armed, another one is under guardianship because mentally unstable LOL)
Yeah tbh some of them didn't want any interview cuz they are dumb af and can't argue beside "ImIgRaNtS". Damn some of them haven't revealed their faces.
Mmh somehow they reminds me of the average r/europe user...
Actually surprised about reactions here. Totally expected "damn france is lost" I guess troll farm are on cheaper plan.
Lol maybe they have an alarm that warns them when there is a new post that contains the words "immigrants" or "islam" in the title and never visit the other posts
They always try to maintain a facade of not actually being far right and ideas of far right being actually reasonable and mainstream at the same time. You won't find them openly supporting literal nazis but they will always try to normalize the ideas of nazis. I am expecting a lot of "people" here saying if far right won the elections x y would have been better, in a few months.
People didn't understand why Bardella's name wasn't on the ballot last week, this is just a populist cheap copy of the Nazi party.
That article about ppl mad at officials because Bardella and Lepen weren't on the ballot was gold. And sad. Civic class fail.
I don't think that changed the votes much tbh. The RN-Russia link has been known for a long long time by most voters. Most people that vote RN don't care about international policy.
It probably didn't change much. I've seen it way more on Reddit than on French media. They're being slapped regardless
Thanks. It was a matter of hygiene ! We already tried Pétain once, and frankly it was more than enough
You tried Petain once, no need to try Putain?
I did, got std.
Vive la France
My honest reaction when Macron's jack shit plan works: >!Dilon! You son of a bitch.!<
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IMHO it was to protect the real cntre of power from the far right: the presidency. LIke in the US the french president has a lot of power, so letting FN have a few years in power to show they are even worse then everybody else could make people think twice voting for them again in the next presidential elections.
at least French didn't fuck up like we did
US enters the chat. ...hold my drink
oh yeah, my condoleances
Wait two years, every government that manages to somehow gets into power with that mess of an assembly will be reviled by the time of the next presidential elections.
I can relate…
Meloni is not pro-Putin, that's Salvini and his party got 8% iirc
yeah but the Young Wing of Meloni's party is openly fascist (not only the youngs obviously) and in general our government literally says that undercover journalism is "one of this things that regimes do", they passed an "electoral law" that discourage every attempt at creating a party from popular initiative... I could go on for hours... it's not that we not have a totalitarian regime but things are not getting better here
Fascism is still on a constant rise in the country since 2012. They haven't won today, but this is still their best ever election result.
Macron played 4D chess
But it was hella of a gamble
Sure, but had he waited longer - the results would've been much worse.
I like to believe that Macron somehow meticulously calculated everything and just sipped on his cup of wine watching the dominoes fall towards his assured result.
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4D chess with no clear wins. Everybody can claim some level of victory. It's more about denying some other side a clear win. RN got enough seats to be the biggest party by itself without being anywhere close to a majority so they will not have to be in any government. Given that the New Front party grouping would have more seats, RN can just stand aside and avoid any cohabitation or coalition government mess. Now Macron's party has to form some sort of government, possibly with New Front including with communists. There is no way in hell that will go over well with his centrist supporters or could become a stable government. The next election round including presidential is in 3 years, enough time for this to become a very public fighting cabinet mess.
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France's 2-round elections... In the first round everybody votes its preferred candidate, which resulted in most votes for RN. Then in the second round the top 2 or top 3 candidates are set against each other, and all moderate voters vote for the non-RN candidate as their 'second best' choice. Moderate parties reinforce this by agreeing to withdraw candidates in certain districts, so they don't split the moderate vote. Imagine in the first round the Left candidate getting 25%, the Center candidate getting 20% and the Far-right getting 30%, in the second round the Center withdraws, and now the Left candidate gets 40% of the vote, while the Far-right gets 35% - so the Left wins.
Holy shit, your political parties cooperate for the greater good?? That's incredible!
And it wasn’t « in certain districts ». Almost everywhere there were 3 party left with the far-right, the one that was third (left or right), withdrew their candidate.
Not for the greater good but since the hatred towards la mère facho & co...
I more meant "the greater good as they interpret it". It would be unheard of where I live to pull a candidate, even if it would mean the constituency is better-represented, and this applies to both left and right.
I think it’s called the “Republican Deadlock”, as a means to prevent the far-right to access power in the country.
Different electoral methods and left wing coalition. European is a single turn proportional election where the left went divided. General elections are first past the post in 2 turns in 577 constituency, where the left was united. Plus, when the RN was first, votes usually went to the candidate best placed to beat him, no matter the party, and if 3 candidate qualified for the 2nd round, the 3rd place removed his candidacy to help beat the RN. I myself am a left winger, and in my constituency it was RN vs Macronist candidate and I voted agaisnt the RN candidate. In other it was the right voting for the left.
Its nitpicking but France doesn't use a First past the Post system, that's a big part why that whole dynamic could happen at all. FPTP specifically refers to a one-round, most-votes-wins system like in the UK or the US. France uses a non-FPTP majoritarian system.
My bad then
If you’re American, the second round is tantamount to a runoff election. So not technically FPTP but still winner takes all.
Don’t forget the turnout 51% vs 59%. Some people came out to vote against RN
It's even higher, 67% turnout on the second round. A record for the past 30 years
Damn, in the UK the media is making a big deal of turnout only being in the 60s.
2024 was the 3rd lowest turnout since 1918 for the UK.
Always hard for me to judge, in Belgium we have compulsory elections. Tho the 10 euro fine hasn't been enforced since the 80s, last month was seen as a bad turnout of 90.01%.
>vs 59%. That is still quite low tbh.
It's 67%, which is high in a non-presidential year in France.
It is not exactly FPTP for the parliamentary elections. On the 1st round you qualify if you have more than 12.5% of votes. So you can have 2 or 3 or even 4 candidates crossingthe threshold. On the second round it is FPTP.
> where the left was united. A bold move to put squabbles aside to deal with the great issues of our time instead of leaving it to billionaires, populists and fascists. Maybe we should try it in more places
Yeah, it was great to see, especially taking the name of the Front Populaire, an alliance of left wing parties in 1936 that was formed against fascist leagues and gave us paid holidays, collective agreements, lower work time.... Now I just hope they stay together
>and I voted against Yep. That's how voting looks like my entire life...
There were some tactical moves from the main opposition parties to concentrate behind certain candidates against RN.
A few things, first there was high turn out, so assuming people trying to stop RN. Second, RN actually did well in the first round, so the left made an alliance to drop out of every situation where they were eating each others votes so that a left would win over RN in the second round. Third, there is no other choice for the right than RN now, the republicans are dead and there is no semi right or centrist Conservative Party, so while people might not really want to vote far left, they feel like they have no choice since they don’t want RN (or they don’t vote)
I guess people understood that electing RN would have been much more than flipping a finger to "the elites" and reconsidered in the last minute.
Probably the same thing that always happens - people don't bother to vote in european elections so only radicals vote so they get crazy good results that later aren't repeated in elections with high turnover.
We had the highest participation in decades during these elections.
It's not that simple, both the European Parliament Elections and the first round of these national parliamentary elections had really high turnout. I think what has happened here in the second round was the republican front (ie. strategic withdrawals of third place contestants in order to not split the anti-RN vote) has worked extremely well.
Macron playing chess while bardella was playing tic tac toe. La remontada de la gauche, let's goooo
C'est tous les buts pas marqués à l'Euro.
What did Macron gain from this?
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>I don't think you understand how unpopular Macron is All French presidents were unpopular at some point, this means nothing objectively. French people are massively critical of literally everything, yet the country is "working" compared to peers.
Macron's approval ratings in 2019 were even worse - dipping as low as 20% in some stats. This is pretty much universal to all French presidents. By the end of a president's term of office, their approval rating is lower than before election.
I think he's ended the narrative that a far-right wave is about to sweep Europe. He gained some goodwill by giving the people a chance to register their discontent with his government. He also proved that there still is a center coalition while insulating his party from the negatives of being directly in power. Would he have preferred a Labour-style massive victory? Sure. But that was never in the cards, and the hand he has now is a lot more dynamic than he had a month ago.
How accurate do French exit polls tend to be? Is it like the UK where it’s mostly spot on?
Fairly accurate they are
Now over to Yoda our political correspondent.
Safe for now France is
French polls are pretty darn accurate. But far right voters participation less in exit polls
I'll wait until midnight to have definitive results. At least, the far right won't raise to power. I don't know what to expect from the left but I have one wish : do your best to lower the popularity of the RN.
I just hope it’s not a clusterfuck, setting the stage for a far right to win in the next presidential.
Something I'm concerned about. That's why I don't celebrate. The moderate right party is in shambles, I wonder how long the left alliance will hold and what will happen to the president's party. I only hate far right and I don't have a political preference.
Macron did a huge power move here though, and Le Pen did a blunder. If the leftist government turns out bad, it might increase Macron popularity again, not the far right.
With Melenchon? It’s pretty much guaranteed to be a clusterfuck.
If they do anything to control migration the far right will be extinct next elections and the same for every eu country we wouldn’t be seeing a rise in the far right popularity if not for the fear of the left to do something about uncontrolled migration
So this is what happens when people actually come to the polls en masse. From a potential absolute majority on the right to a large majority on the left!
It has more to do with 3rd place candidates dropping from the race to deny the far-right. Last week had a really high turnout but the RN was still ahead. I think it's time to bury the idea that people who don't vote wouldn't vote for the RN.
Sad day for Putin.
Between this and Farage in the UK only getting 5 seats, its been a bad investment for him and a bad week
I wish him sadness till the very end of his life. May his anus grow taste buds.
France, you had us worried there for a minute.
Macron is playing interdimensional quantum chess and we were too dumb to see it!
Vive la Republic, Vive la France!
Fantastic. First UK, now France, fingers crossed for US keeping out furious orange.
Don’t forget Poland. They threw out their right-wingers, as well. 🇵🇱
Don't forget India who slashed Modis majority when he controlled all the media and was putting opposition in prison, etc. Also let's not forget Brazil threw out Bolsanaro too. Many big democracies taking on the right.
Yes, and now he's actually getting called out in the parliament. It's glorious.
Yes, I'm very happy about Poland to be honest. Don't forget Iran, they also chose the candidate that wasn't the most right-wing extremist.
Well Iran is still generally an Islamist dictatorship but yeah he’s the most moderate candidate that’s still approved by the supreme leader and best possible candidate
Don't forget India too. Modi lost his absolute majority. His has an alliance partner now.
Also, i hope that the fucking Afd fascists in germany will loose when it's voting time
Don't let them loose, but hope they lose!
Ah well, classic typo.
This is what happens when the majority get off their bums and actually go to vote, instead of letting the extremists decide the fate of the country. Pay attention USA!
Impressive Mr. Macron, can't tell if this is luck or skill.
It’s always a bit of both in life. 🇫🇷
Well I wasn't expecting that... thank you France! So both Britain and France have gone in the right direction! Love from the UK 🇬🇧❤️🇫🇷
We're the Entente Center-Left Cordiale, now
*not that kind of right. Thank God. Just need the yanks to do the same now
Not really, In the uk labour only got 34% of the total votes. Reform (our right wing party) had a huge increase in votes, finished 3rd overall. The way our system works makes it look better for labour than it actually was. In France, areas that had multiple left and centre candidates forced people to step down so the vote wasn’t split. The right wing vote didn’t get weaker it’s just the left didn’t split their votes. If Europe doesn’t get a grip on immigration right wing parties will be winning by the next election cycles, they’re right on the edge and their votes are growing every election not getting smaller.
Amazing outcome. The future looks a little less bleak. Now the US. Edit: some people are telling me the left wing parties are pro-Putin or have many problems as well. I don't know enough to judge. I'm pro whoever is pro-climate, pro-EU and pro-equality. 2nd edit: a lot of other people are telling me it's bullshit.
Well, that one could be a bit more difficult
The left wing party is not pro putin. The RN, on the other hand, is *very* vocal about their support for Russia and against Ukraine. Don’t let misinformation trick you..
Well done dear neighbours 🇫🇷🇪🇺🇩🇪❤️
Better result than what was expected last week, great outcome.
Thanks, neighbors
the flags spell out FREUDE in their country codes. coincidence? probably yes
Hallelujah
This is my neighbour England, he is pain in my assholes I win penalty shootout, he must win penalty shootout I elect left, he must elect left I can cook et cannot great success !
Holy shit thats a turn around
Thank god for that
gonna be honest, i don’t like macron but this was probably the best decision. it was a relief to hear that the far right performed poorly and hopefully we can see a decline in right wing populism across europe as a whole
That's not going to happen until the parties in power actually address some of the concerns the folks voting for the right wing parties.
La douce france Je t'aime
Cher pays de mon enfance
Big Win!
Merci!
Thank you, France!
Oh well that's just fantastic news!
So pleasantly surprised by Ensemble’s success, victory for Macron!
Congrats, France 👏👏
To non-French like me: The image you provided shows an estimate of seats (sièges) in the French National Assembly from a recent poll by Ipsos, dated July 2024. The estimates are broken down by political groups: 1. **Nouveau Front Populaire**: 172 to 192 seats - LFI (La France Insoumise): 68 to 74 seats - PCF (Parti Communiste Français): 10 to 12 seats - Les Écologistes: 32 to 36 seats - PS (Parti Socialiste): 63 to 69 seats - Divers gauche: 13 to 16 seats 2. **Ensemble!**: 150 to 170 seats - Renaissance: 95 to 105 seats - MoDem: 31 to 37 seats - Horizons: 24 to 28 seats 3. **RN et alliés**: 132 to 152 seats - RN (Rassemblement National): 120 to 136 seats - LR (soutenus par RN): 12 to 16 seats 4. **LR/DVD**: 57 to 67 seats - LR: 57 to 67 seats 5. **Others**: 8 to 11 seats - UDI/Divers centre: 6 to 8 seats - Autres: 8 to 11 seats This visual representation gives an overview of the estimated distribution of seats among different political factions in the French National Assembly based on the poll data. Emmanuel Macron's party is **Renaissance**, which is part of the **Ensemble!** coalition. According to the image, the Renaissance party is estimated to have 95 to 105 seats. The **Ensemble!** coalition as a whole is estimated to have 150 to 170 seats. Marine Le Pen's party is the **Rassemblement National (RN)**. According to the image, the RN and its allies are estimated to have 132 to 152 seats, with the RN itself having 120 to 136 seats. The allies, including LR supported by RN, are estimated to have 12 to 16 seats.
Well done my French neighbours! Being from Belgium I absolutely dreaded a fascist party clinging power so close to home but I'm getting quite emotional watching the celebrations on television, this is an absolutely massive confidence booster for all left-thinking people across western Europe. Vive la France!
Well done France
That's a twist. But a good one.
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Center left taking power across Europe. Now Macron looks like a genius
Should be a wake up call to everyone that he felt he had to gamble like this.
France never disappoints 💘
Merci, mes amis.
We all dodged a bullet here. Thank god the voters stepped back and kept their sanity. But we shouldn't celebrate too early, RN will try again and again. Another crisis, and democracy is in peril again.
I breathed a sigh of relief
Freude, schöner Götterfunken!
Good Hope that the left get there shit together and really turn things around for the french people and be a beacon for the rest of europe
Wow! Merci, français! Fuck the fascists, now and forever!
Yeah, we dodge the bullet here. No laws will pass for at least a year but that's better than RN.
Well this has been a pleasant surprise... now if only my own country (NL) could've done the same.
The French people didn't fail to show the world how it is done. Unexpected but very good news for once
Vive la France
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\*the far right