RB can *also* be picked later (in fact even more so if people are snatching up WRs and leaving behind RBs). That said, I tend to pick RBs more than the average manager does. In general, committing to a set position in a given round is too restricting.
Luck is always a huge part of it. I won the chip on the back of James Conner. No one, even 0 RB apostles, would have said "yeah, get Conner, he'll win it all for you."
Every year people stubbornly insist on drafting RB's who were very inefficient the previous season, really helps leave some good picks available in the later rounds
A couple of years ago someone said during fantasy draft season "a lot of you also went 0rb but you just don't know it yet" and that is so true basically every year.
Yes but I feel purposely drafting zero RB makes your most likely outcome 6th-3rd place unless you get a magical late round RB1. The teams who draft more balance and get good injury luck win it all.
The teams that get lucky win it all. Going zero RB, Hero RB, QB early, any of them work so long as you just get lucky with the guys you draft or are able to pick up in FA.
Fantasy football is like 80% luck. 18% getting to be the person to pick up the boom FA player, and 2% skill from drafting.
RBs get injured more since they get tackled more.
You don't need to find a late round rb1. You just need to hit on the receivers and te and QB you take and then you let the chaos of the season with injuries let you find starters each week until someone sticks.
Like a Zack Moss last year getting picked up would've been a great option. Mostert was either late or a free agency pick up.
But throughout the season there are dozens of these guys who pop up week to week. Ty Chandler was another one.
0 and hero RB is all about unity mitigation knowing that statistically RBs are more likely to be in a committee and they are more likely to miss time. So you have more chances to swoop in and get production every week from guys no one has touched.
My philosophy is you should only take a running back in the first if they check literally every box for having the potential to be a league winning rb. Last year, with the 8th pick I didn’t believe in any of the early rbs after mccaffrey so i went diggs and ceedee lamb and it served me well.
This year however, i truly believe that Bijan and breece have the talent and situation to be 20 ppg league winners so i will happily take them. They are under 25, they catch passes, they are elite rushers, and their offense should be at least average to above average if things break right. This is the year to reach for one of the top 3 rbs IMO. And then hammer WRs rounds 2-5 to make up for it.
I’ll be contrarian and say no. And this isn’t to slight them as players as they are both elite talents. However Richardson will 100% steal touchdowns from JT and based on what we saw Richardson doesn’t target his RBs enough which is crucial for RBs to pay off. The case for Gibbs is simple, Montgomery will get the majority of early down and goal line work so he doesn’t have league winning upside unless Montgomery is hurt. Breece Bijan and Cmac are the only RBs who check every box in terms of work load, pass catching, not having a qb mobile who will steal TDs, and being elite runners.
This isn’t to say JT and Gibbs won’t have good fantasy seasons, i simply wouldn’t put them in “league winner” category.
I agree with this. I think CMC, Bijan, and Breece are the only "flawless" hero RBs this year. Taking one of them ensures you'll be at least competent at the position.
I am drafting 8th in an 8 man league. So at the 1-2 turn I am seriously considering taking JT/Gibbs. I believe both of these players have the set up and the skill to break 300+ points this year. I always draft for max possible points with the first 2 picks. I will take Breece/Bijon if they fall to me obviously.
Gibbs after week 7 when they unleashed him was averaging around 17 points a game which is 289 on the season. Dan Campbell has said that he wants to get Gibbs the ball more in open space, running routes out of the slot, and more touches in general. He is absolutely primed for a 2nd year true breakout season.
JT has scored like 353 in 2021 and is walking into one of the best situations of his career. No competition, colts will be moving the ball down the field with AR or Flacco. I’m also a Colts fan but that doesn’t matter.
I don’t see AJB, Puka, or Wilson getting to 300+. ARSB has a chance but I still feel Gibbs will outscore him. Wilson is the X factor, he has the talent and the opportunity but that is banking on Rodgers. Just feels a little risky for me.
I have historically gone RB/RB in my drafts and found great depth at WR later in the draft. I have won my league with my friends 7 out of 15 years, no one else has over 2 wins.
Some of the WR’s I like in the draft later this year that I am targeting are Mike Evans, DK, Metcalf Cooper Kupp, George Pickins, Ladd McConkey, Diontae Johnson, Terry McLaurin. They are all projected to be #1 WR on their teams.
2 years ago in a 12 team full ppr league, I like pick 10, I decided to pass on players like devtonte Adams(forget who else), instead went RB heavy early with Henry, and forget who else. But I was able to get Kirk and Marquis Brown, even Jeudy who had a solid end of year stretch, to fill out my wr. I ended up winning.
Last year in a different 10 man half ppr league I went Hill and Lamb as my first two picks, then went Josh Allen third. I won that league.
League size and scoring type really matters, but things vary year to year.
I entered last season with a juggernaut in my main dynasty league. At RB: Chubb, Dobbins, Bijan, Ekeler. Three of the four dead after two weeks and the other relegated to Arthur Smith hell. Fantasy can be cruel.
for context, i drafted chubb twice and kupp once in the first round and won those 3 leagues. Sometimes you just get lucky in the later rounds. I will say, TE and WR are who i want in the first 3 rounds unless a league winning potential RB drops. Im also done taking an early QB, did that this past year in my most important league (for the first time) and regretted it.
This is great and all, but a lot of the time you’re faced with players in the same tier at WR and RB. It’s easier to say that you have AJ Brown over Puka than it is to say you have Puka over Kyren as well. Harder to compare a RB and WR.
I think it’s totally okay to look at the position over individual player, within reason. If there’s a run of 8 WRs to start the draft and CMC is sitting there you don’t consider WR, but in most cases it’s much more balanced. If you really like the RBs in round 3-6 then you take the WRs early, within reason. If you really like the deep WRs and think you can find some hits there but just see a long RB dead zone after RB15 then double tap RB is probably a good strategy.
Same. Beforehand I’ll
Go through and highlight with different colors on guys I’m willing to reach for and guys I think should be pushed down. There no one on my list that is a “do not draft” guy except Carr.
Ha. So I take it you're out on Olave, too? I might be forced to draft him (if I take the 1.08 pick and pick Breece/Bijan), so I'm trying to get people's takes on him. I like that they (finally) have a new OC.
I think he’ll catch a lot of balls, and I’m local to NOLA but I’m just super low on their offense as a whole.
I go into a season and draft with a handful of teams that I will just flat out refuse to draft players from. This year, the saints are one of those teams unless the value is just insane.
Appreciate this insight. Would definitely rather have MHJ than him, but I don't know what other WRs in the 2nd I'd rather take after him (and ahead of Olave). I'm not sold on London or Aiyuk because of their unknowns/target competition.
I like to grab an ADP list based off league settings and then go through and mark off guys that I don't like at their ADP. Then I will go back and compare which guys I think are values at their spot and give them a star or something. Then I'll go and give a green check to guys that I really like on the season.
That will kind of give me a layout of which rounds I may target a certain position or player
The absolute best advantage you’ll get in snake with your approach will be to NOT limit yourself to an intentional positional strategy per round. “I need to have X RBs by Y round” for example can completely limit your options. Saying you need a TE by round 5, well what if that TE you’re looking at in RD5 is markedly worse than other players at other positions? Don’t just blindly follow that.
Observe how your roster is unfolding, and how others particularly between your pick and next pick’s roster is looking. Easy one is if you need a TE at 11 in an odd round, but pick 12 already has a TE, don’t take your TE until the following round - pick 12 is unlikely to draft a second TE. Then your mind is already made up for the next pick.
No one strategy will win every league in the draft. I won a PPR superflex league where I took only one QB in the first 7 rounds and it was Joe Burrow who was hurt and ass all year. I made playoffs in a league where 5 of my first 7 picks were Chubb, Pollard, Pierce, Mike Williams and Javonte, and lost in the semis to a Cooper 50 burger. By all accounts it was a bad draft, if not for Cooper explosion I would have won WK16 and then also 17 if I had been in it. But I loved the value at the spots I took those players.
Look at R1/R2 ADP and I imagine who will end up in the top 6 in their position.
For example, Travis Etienne is currently #26 overall according to Fantasy Pros in .5 PPR
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/half-point-ppr-overall.php.
That's low. I think he could be the RB5 or 6. If I could pair him with AJB or JJ or The Sun God that seems pretty good to me.
But you have to be flexible. Someone could be picked anytime, so you'd need a back up plan.
Draft position is super important too. Like if you are the #2 seed....that's a LOT of picks until you go again in R2. But you will go early in R3.
My best draft ever was the #3 seed and I absolutely did my homework for the 2/3 turn.
Etienne's a tough one. He was so disappointing for half the season.
It's like, do you think you're gonna get weeks 1-8 Etienne (~19 PPG in 0.5 PPR) or weeks 8-18 Etienne (~11 PPG).
If there's a no doubt stud WR available, someone like Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson or JaMarr Chase, I'll take them first. RBs tend to be hard to predict these days, and there always seems to be some unknown RB that goes off and scores a crazy amount of points during the season, while some of the big name RBs stink it up or have their season ended early by injury.
Just my two cents, there's no one perfect way to draft.
Of these three, and since you didn't add Tyreek, I love Lamb. Jefferson is going to have a downgrade at QB and Chase has to avoid both being injured as well as injury to his QB, both of which have seriously affected him the past few years. I'd say Lamb, Chase, Jefferson. Can anyone sell me on Chase here?
Tyreek obviously belongs at the top of the list. I made the edit.
As for Chase, I had him last year and he might be QB-proof. Even when Burrow went down late last season and Jake Browning took over at QB, Chase was still tearing it up. Dude can play with anyone at QB.
Chase had 4 single digit PPR games in 7 of Browning's starts. He had one great game but his 2nd best game in those starts was 12.1 points. Definitely not QB proof.
I have the 1st overall pick this year in a 12 team. Drafting CMC first and then I'm going RB/RB in 2nd and 3rd. I think the scarcity of legit RB1s is going to catch up with teams that prioritize other positions in early rounds. Obviously if a WR gem falls or something then it's different. But I like the WRs in the 4/5/6 rounds better than the RBs in that range.
Most years mid round WRs are better than RBs but honestly I’ve liked the RBs more this year and last year to some extent. When people are taking WR early the RBs get pushed down more. On current Yahoo rankings, WRs like Dell, Higgins, Flowers all go near pick 50 just ahead of Kamara, Dmont, KW3. Personally, I much prefer those RBs
Exactly! That’s what I’m saying. There are a lot of WRs that can give you legitimate points in later rounds. The amount of RBs you can trust are limited.
This is how I’ve always approached ff. I’ve had a lot of success and love playing in a league where people go 0rb. One of the worst possible strategies going into a draft imo
I won my 12 team PPR league last season going 0RB, finished with the best record too. PPR was made to have stud WR’s and then you draft a bunch of lotto ticket RBs.
I mean it’s always just about finding the best value based on how leaguemates are drafting, but statistically speaking, 0 RB has tended to be one of the better strategies on average over the last few years
To what end would you take a WR over those RBs though? What if everyone else has the mindset of going RB-RB-RB as well, and by picks 24 and 25 your options are much better WRs than they are RBs. Would you pivot?
This is my strategy as well. Yes, a top WR1 is nice to have, but the drop-off for RBs is insane. If you don't have the clear RB1 on a team, you are getting an RB in a timeshare, which is hard to predict who will play which week, or you are getting a clear RB2, who will be TD dependent or nothing more than a handcuff. WR, you can still find plenty of consistency in the WR2 on teams that throw a lot, so the drop-off is way less severe.
Later or mid-round RBs in the draft that hit are typically going to be rookies that end up doing very well, not RB2s or vets with dwindling careers.
I honestly think you can punt on both TE AND QB this year. There are just so many values. Kyler, Dak, and Love at QB, and Engram, Kittle, Ferguson, and Njoku at TE are players whose ADP doesn't make sense to me.
Don't *always* do anything, unless you're always drafting for value. Pigeonholing yourself into a specific strategy before the draft even starts is a bad idea.
Just grab the best available player, need to be adaptable to what the rest of your league is doing.
I won my PPR league and didn’t pick a WR till the 4th round. I normally prefer getting at least one WR by the second, but it was just based on how other picks went. Going in with too ridged of a plan can hurt more than it helps.
I won last year with pick 1, but have 12 this year and I really don’t like it. I don’t like guys like Garrett Wilson or Puka as my WR1, and Hurts isn’t going to come back around to me so I’d have to take him 1 or 2.
If you've already decided how you're going to draft then you're doing it wrong. Draft rooms are so different from each other, site ADPs are different, league formats are different. Take bpa and build out from there
Imo running backs are just much riskier and less consistent than wr, I also think that they are easier to stream than wr
There is a huge drop off in rb after the top 1-3 while that drop off is much slower and less significant for wr.
If I can get one of those top tier rb, someone on a great team who is very talented and is going to be a bell cow, I would absolutly love to draft them. It’s so nice to have a really good rb. But if I don’t get one of those top tier ones it’s just not worth wasting a pick on the second tier of them. The second tier is really not that much better than the third tier
Imo the other guys I’d put in the top tier are really only saquan and maybe bijan. Jt is right on the edge but I might keep him and Gibbs in 2nd
For Gibbs there’s too much competition for touches. I will only put a rb in the top tier if they are an undisputed bell cow. I also think Gibbs relies too much on td. I’m worried about how good the colts offense and team as a whole is going to be, same reason I put breece in tier 2. After last year my new rule is I don’t trust rb on a bad team no matter how good they are. I’m tired of them getting 2 carries in the 4th quarter/always behind so focusing on the pass or the pass game not being able to spread the field enough
For all those tier 2 guys I absolutly think they have the potential to end as top 3 rb, I just think that they are riskier and les likely to achieve that
In most cases 2-3 WRs in the first 3 rounds.
The first 8 picks I think are pretty well set. CMC and the 5 WRs, then Breece and Bijan. There’s a chance that Bijan sneaks into the top WR tier behind CMC for me, but right now he’s just behind.
If I end up with CMC, Breece or Bijan in the first then I’m going WR in the 2nd unless Gibbs falls deeper into the 2nd and it’s PPR. I like the RBs in rounds 4-7 right now compared to the WRs in that area so I want to leave the first 3 rounds with 2 WRs at least if possible.
I have the ability to pick 1.08 through 1.10 and am struggling to decide what I want. Really tempting to take 1.08 to get Bijan/Breece, but then I'm nervous I end up with "only" Olave/MHJ as my best WR options in the 2nd. Meanwhile, if I go 1.10, I can get like Puka or Wilson and then Saquon/JT/Gibbs to give myself a nice WR-RB combination.
Bijan-MHJ or Puka-Gibbs would both be elite pairings with huge upside.
I know there’s risk associated with a rookie WR, but Marv looked more than ready to move to the NFL, and is joining a team with a very good QB and virtually no target competition at WR. They also project to be a team with a good offence and a poor defence, something that benefits his scoring opportunities. I have him finishing as WR8 in my projections, and I think even if he struggles to adapt at first he’s a high end WR2.
If I’m picking late those are pairings I’m hunting.
They’re are a lot of WRs in the early ADP so I’ll likely have a few of them. If you pivot you’re really going to have to be lucky to keep up all season long. RBs, TEs, and QBs all can be found on the waiver wire but the odds of another Puka falling on your lap is slim to none. For the record I also like taking an RB first if I can but this year is looking tough for early RBs
If you had the ability to pick 1.08 to get Bijan/Breece, would you? If so, who would you be looking to target with your next pick at 2.05 (if a 12-man)?
I went heavier on RBs and earlier than I ever have before (Saquon, Breece, Connor, BRob, Bigsby + picked up Kyren off waivers) as really thought I was getting good value while everyone else was prioritizing WRs and it totally backfired, couldn’t make any trades and was stuck with Pickens and Thomas as my WR 2-3
This is a good illustration of the risks and luck involved. Pickens COULD have been a brilliant pick if the Steelers had a decent QB, but he just never got the opportunities that were projected.
And then no luck with trades…. You got hit hard
It really depends on your draft mates, draft position, and lineup positions.
In standard, the playing field is more even between RB and WR. I’d probably rank your top 50 players and base it off that not worrying about position.
I play in 12 team half ppr that was originally standard. My league mates drive up RBs. The draft site’s rankings also heavily influences them as it puts certain players in front of their face to consider. I think my strategy will depend on my draft position. If I’m top half, I’m going to seriously consider Mccaffrey or Bijan because I am more comfortable knowing I’m ahead of the RB run and I’ll get quality WR rounds 2-3. If I’m the back half then I’ll let the draft come to me which will like be a WR such as St Brown or Aj Brown. I may reach on someone I consider to be an rb1 as I like a lot of running backs in rounds 5+ as rb2/flexes but don’t feel comfortable waiting until those rounds for my first rb.
My personal favorite would probably be Bijan paired with MHJ. It’s high risk high reward as they both might be the most talented players in their position but young players where I worry about consistent workload. I wish MHJ was going a bit lower. I would feel more comfortable with him as my second receiver but I would consider taking him in the second round if I can pair him with a DK Metcalf in the third round.
I think the safest option would be Breece or JT paired with Olave. Breece is talented on a good (on paper at least) team. I worry about his upside with touchdowns as Rodgers likes to steal those easy 1-2 yard tds. JT has minimal competition on a team with a running QB. The team overall will probably be below average. Olave has no competition but again team will be average to below average. I hope new offensive coordinator will stop mixing in Taysom Hill
Gotta be like water, changing with the tides but most of my drafts have been WR heavy so I zag where they zig. I sccop up RB value and typically end up with 2 RB1s and high end RB 2. However, if the other managers were over drafting RBs then I would go more of a Zero or Hero RB build. There isnt one set strategy you just have to be fluid.
Completely dependent on your format and league etc. WRs generally are a better bet to score more points (especially in ppr) - they also get injured less.
> WRs generally are a better bet to score more points
If we're still talking about OP's topic (early-round picks), then the top 5 RBs scored more PPG than the top 5 WRs in 2023 in half PPR.
RBs have higher ceilings but WRs are generally safer. It's pretty close though. 2023 was not a great year for hero RBs outside of CMC.
In those top 5 rbs there's at least one that was drafted way outside the early rounds (mostert).
A lot of failures in the top rbs last year (ekeler terrible, Chubb injured, pollard and bijan meh)
Bingo, forgetting Kyren as well. It’s the predictability. You can find replaceable RB points in the later rounds, you’re not finding elite WR production there though.
12 person league.
I put together a list of my top 12 players between RB and WR ranking them 1-12 and draft my best available with my first pick.
If the first pick ends up being a WR I really try to take a RB in the second but can be flexible depending on how things go
Go best player available early, there are players at every position that can be found later
If you go into a draft with a concrete plan you do not waiver from you'll be disappointed and behind the curve more often than not
You can have a tentative plan but if you want to go RB early and 6 are off the board at pick 9, then you're a fool to follow the run, time to go WR in that scenario
Years ago I was more RB heavy, but now I tend to go best player available. Generally, I like to start with a WR and RB in the first 2 rounds. My home league is standard scoring, and even without PPR, it is important to get at least one target hog, stud WR. In best ball drafts, my strategy is different and I've gone WR heavy and hero or zero RB most of the time.
It's good to have strategies in mind, but don't be afraid to pivot away from them depending how the draft falls
The 3 players in my league (PPR, 12 teams) last year who drafted WR heavy all finished in the bottom 3. The winner of last years league drafted a RB first then WR in rd 2 and 3. I finished 3rd after drafting 4 RBs rounds 1,2,3,4 and picked up WR2's in the 5th and 6th rounds. I pick up extra RBs for trade capital.
I think RBs are the most valuable asset in FF. More and more teams are relying on RBs to get first downs, especially as OL is becoming the most valued position in the NFL (run blocking OL being the most important).
Really good point. There are a lot more viable "good" WRs than there are RBs. Of course, RBs tend to get hurt more, but WRs are more replaceable, at least, in theory.
I tier the big three, QB, RB, WR and then I do a bunch of mock drafts to see the general area that each of the players at the bottom of each tier will go. Then I try to target getting those players right before they would be drafted. I try not to lock myself into certain positions at certain draft picks because I want to get the best value for my pick each time.
As an example, if I have CJ Stroud as the last of the tier 1 QBs and I think he is going around pick 4:06 and I didn't get one of the guys above him I would be targeting him late third or early 4th depending on where I draft because he is the last top tier QB I want to settle for.
This year looks to me like another WR heavy start because some many RBs have watered down situations and so many moved teams it's a crap shoot who may emerge as true top dogs. It's one of the reasons that Gibbs is shooting up my rankings, staying in the same situation brings a lot of stability to the projection of his points.
Same this year. I’d say Hero RB is the move if you can get a bellcow RB with receiving upside (CMC, Gibbs, Kyren etc) and pair them with 2 or 3 solid WRs in the top 3-4 rounds.
TE seems incredibly deep now. I might make a splash in rounds 4-6 for a solid QB and wait on TE until 6-8. Good year for a Ying Yang approach at TE.
Lots of mid-late rd RBs I have my eyes on as well
Man, we're the same. I'm considering picking 1.08 so I can get Breece/Bijan, and then I'm planning on picking a WR in round two, and then going BPA from there. Definitely not looking to take a QB or TE early.
Always draft RB round 1, just about always draft RB rd 2. The position is thin and drop-off is harder for RB then WR. Still plenty of talent in WR with loads of upside into rd 4 or 5, also, think about it like this. We are having this conversation now as if all things are equal, but during the season it's a hell of a lot harder to trade top WR talent for top RB talent then it is the other way around. You pretty much have to tier down in terms of expected return because the workable RBs on teams are neigh irreplaceable for everyone. More times then not I go RB, RB, WR, WR, best at position with the intention to trade him week 2 for the 3rd best RB on the team that has the most RB depth. This insulates you against injury while still covering the Flex, is early enough that the team isn't going to be as sold on that guys talent. And gives you a more solid core then anyone else has for the rest of the season at a fickle position.
I always stick with best player available. I do a live draft with friends and the draft almost never goes the way i thought, doing all these mocks, then the draft comes and it’s a clusterfuck
Usually I’m a RB and TE early guy because positional advantages at those positions if you hit (im talkin prime Gronk + CMC) you’re golden.
This year however, I’m not sold on ANY receivers after the 2nd round. To me it feels like almost all receivers outside of Chase, CD, Tyreek, and Amon Ra have questions either in the form of questionable QB, unproven talent, or crowded receiver rooms. JJ has a rookie QB, AJB faded end of last year, MHJ is a rookie, guys like Drake London and Pickens haven’t really proven anything yet, HOU, SF, and CHI have crowded WR rooms, the list goes on and on.
Meanwhile if you zero RB it you can get lucky and snag some combo of Gus Edwards + Ekeler + Zack Moss and get a dart throw at a guy with a legit RB1 workload on explosive offenses.
I’m in on the middle rounds on TE this year. Mandrews is a 2nd/3rd round talent that can’t stay healthy but is being drafted in the 4th/5th right ahead of guys like Kittle Engram and Kincaid. Also in TE you can comfortably wait til 8th or 9th round and snag Njoku or Hock.
Weird year and maybe I’m just a hater but the WR landscape is a sea of unknown at premium value to me
If I can get a top tier back with my first pick I’m absolutely taking one just from scarcity of a bell cow with all the rbbc out there. I wouldn’t go back to back unless someone very unexpected dropped to me.
Sounds like you'd rather draft 1.08 and get Breece/Bijan (and then like Olave/MHJ in the 2nd) than 1.10 and getting Puka/Wilson and then like JT/Saquon/Gibbs? (That's the dilemma I'm in.)
Sticking to a set plan is nearly always a trap. Adjust to what happens. Take value.
Sure, in standard value a stud RB is important. But sometimes you have a much better WR option available. (Or vice versa.)
Locking into any strategy by position is always a terrible idea. Make your own rankings (at least for early picks) and stick to them based on how the draft flows.
I usually alternate depending who's available, but one thing I always gotta have a top 5 QB. I don't have any stats to back it up, but mentally I just gotta have one. I couldn't handle the anxiety of playing a whole season with a Baker Mayfield or Trevor Lawrence.
I never do this. There are always ample WR2/WR3 candidates sitting there in the 7/8th round. If you’re only playing with one flex what are you gonna do with your 5 quality wide receivers? You can’t play them all. There’s always a running back shortage by week 5-6, might as well stock up on them early. Odds are one of your 3 first running backs picked will get injured so always good to stack on them early.
I always draft the number 1 RB then try to get 2 more RB studs, last year it was saquan and Kamara with CMC. I punt TE and QB. Basically go studs and duds in auction.
I used my first round pick on Seattle's D back when LOB was on fire...
It really stirred up the room...
I took 4th place at the end of the season, mostly thanks to them...lol.
I feel the opposite of the way you do. I like to go RB a bit later and try to get the best WRs I can early. I feel like if a starting RB goes down with a
Major injury you have a decent chance of scooping up a plug and play RB1. If a stud WR goes down, there's no guarantee that theres 1 guy behind him that will produce even close to that level. Most often his touches get spread around. I'm also in a FAAB league so im just waiting to pounce on starting level guys. That's how I ended up with guys like Kyren Williams and Ford last year.
THIS.
There are a ton of rbs in the 5/6 and handcuffs that can absolutely be league winners if any of the starters go down. Pacheco/Mixon/Zamir/Moss/Spears/Chubba with Brooks/Ford/ Zeke/ Connor with Trey Burton.
Yes those guys won't be CMC but it won't matter if
Chase, Waddle, Evans, Kupp, Kincaid are starting you off win 100 points per week.
Man, you make great points here and have me reconsidering wanting to pick 1.08 to get Breece/Bijan. (Could also pick 1.10 and double-tap like Puka/Wilson and Adams.)
I used to always go RB-RB to start drafts and would find good value at WR in rounds 3&4. The landscape of the NFL and fantasy football are changing though. It’s just not smart to do that anymore. The only time you should be picking an RB in the first 2 rounds is if they’re an absolute game changer. This year would probably be McCaffrey, Breece, or Bijan. Other than them, you should be taking one of the elite wideouts.
Zero RB has become a popular strategy and has the data to back it up. Waiting until round 6 or later to take your first RB has shown to be effective!
Last year wr were gettin drafted like crazy I stacked up on Rbs. TE is an overlooked position I feel like once the top 5 are gone, it does matter who/where u draft the next guys but u can hold off for a while on those mid tiered TEs
TE seems pretty deep this year. You are right 5-12 are basically a toss up. If you miss on Kincaid or Andrew’s might as well wait until like Ferguson in the late rounds. Don’t be alarmed by a run on TE’s in the middle of the draft either. There are likely a few guys thinking the same thing as you.
It depends on your roster settings. Our league is QB, 3 WR, 2 RB, TE and a Flex. I tend to go best player available as I can either go extra RB or WR in the Flex spot. One season I was stacked at WR so I usually played 4 WR and the 2 RBs. My league mates tend to favor RBs early so I’ll stack up on the WR. WR is usually a safe position as the RBs tend to be injured more as well.
We have a roster of 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 2 flex.
By the end of the 5th round, I want at least the 3 WRs taken care of, but I’m ready to pivot if I need to.
Don’t love restricting myself to one position in a certain round. It all depends on how the board falls and who my league mates are. I will say generally if I miss out on CMC, Hall, or Bijan in round 1 I typically find myself taking WR.
It honestly depends where are you at in the draft... I have the 2nd pick and am not all that thrilled about it because i want to go w/ Breece Hall or Bijan, but think i have to go with a WR because there is a big drop off of talent at WR at the end of the 2nd round and top of 3rd.
It also depends if some studs end up dropping to you, then that may change strategy. I like to spread the picks out to each position and fill my starting spots with the best available and then go RB for depth sooner and WR depth later rounds. Harder to find a starting RB for teams in later rounds than a teams WR2/3 that can make an impact
Would you rather draft 1.08 to get Breece/Bijan (and then probably Olave or MHJ in the 2nd) or 1.10 to get Puka/Wilson and then probably JT, Saquon, or Gibbs in the 2nd?
Both are pretty good options to be honest, but 1.10 i'd feel better to have a guarantee of options.
I'm taking JT or Gibbs at 1.10 and Puka
If it's 1.08 i'm taking Breece/Bijan (Most likely Bijan since Breece is gone, but no guarantee Bijan is there either), and honestly i'm going Davante or Olave. (If Minshew can win the job then Davante is gonna have a monster year)
My strategy is to get lucky with the players I pick. Anyone who says differently is fooling themselves.
There is no "winning strategy" to this game. Every single draft is different. QB early, Hero RB, zero RB, 3x WR, Kelce first rount. All of them can and will win a shit ton of leagues this year. It all comes down to luck that your early round picks stay healthy, and/or you are able to capitalize on whoever is going to be this years FA darling.
Go best player available and figure out the deadzones. Make it so that you can get a solid RB where you don’t like the WRs, and vice versa.
This year is tough for me at pick 12/12 because I like some of the RBs like KW3 and Conner in later rounds, BUT I don’t like the WRs at pick 12 and 13 - I’m not happy with Puka or Wilson as my WR1.
I won last year taking QB early (Hurts), but he won’t come back around to me, so I’d have to take him with my 1/2 pick, which may be too rich for me.
So I’m still figuring it out, I might just split it this year and go something like Puka/Gibbs, then see if I can grab Lamar, then best available. Really targeting Conner and KW3 later.
I’m in a Detroit-based league, so Gibbs may be gone before pick 12, so I’d prob reach for Kyren over Saquon.
Also in a Michigan-based league (Go Lions!), but I think Puka and Wilson would be solid WR1s, assuming you'd grab one of JT, Saquon, or Gibbs next to them (as you mentioned). Good foundational pieces for both positions and would allow you flexibility for them for the rest of the draft.
draft the best value over replacement i can find pretty much regardless of position. as usual. dont force some stupid strategy from a website made to get clicks.
Outside of the top 3-4 RBs, I basically have the next 10-12 all lumped into one big tier, so I usually do hero RB with one of them in RD 2 or 3, and then get WRs for the other first 4 rounds (we only have 1 RB spot and have 3 flexes). I had been picking up a few later round (7-11) RBs, but lately I've been trying to grab a solid 2nd and sometimes 3rd RB in rounds 5-8 because all the good QBs are getting taken earlier in mocks now.
I find RBs tough to predict, and they tend to get hurt faster than other positions… I usually end up with a 12 team league (unfortunately) so I would rather get 2 top WRs than 1 RB that is a superstar and miss out on other more consistent players. The position itself is the problem, not the players.
Also I run half-PPR with FD bonuses, if that helps. I find that balances out RBs.
Also also, I donʻt always win so maybe my methods are flawed? Lol.
I prefer rb heavy team, it's served me well. 3 ships in the past 5 years. I know I'm probably in the minority here, but there's a million different ways to play fantasy football.
Same here. I’ve won twice in the last four years and I try to go RB heavy in early rounds. I’m not sure why some of these people are saying you can get star RBs in later rounds so I should take WRs early lol. They’re playing in weird leagues I guess.
A lot of the "experts" go wr heavy. And then places like reddit become echo chambers. We're all just faking it. Some of the teams I felt best about after draft day have finished the season just awful.
Zig when othe people are zagging to get the maximum value for each draft.
If I see people going WR heavy early, I respond with attacking RB targets, and then pick up my mid-tier WRs later, picking guys with upside and athleticism over hype.
This strategy allows me to usually be able to flip my roster quicker, and can sometimes land you real high octane studs at great value.
Best player available but find difference makers with room to be better than projected but a safe floor. I went Ceedee first last year at 9 and it carried me but people were questioning the pick when I made it. Went chubb at 11 and dobbins a few rounds later but still won the chip
WR-WR (Lamb 10, Sun God 15) served me well in 2023. My league makes champs pick last so I’ll be #12 this year. I’ll still likely opt to reach on Garrett Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr. injuries and split workloads are just too common for RBs. I went zero RB last year and got Rachaad White and Kyren Williams. You cannot get late pulls like that at WR.
I would 100% take Puka over the guys I mentioned. I just know my league mates well, and he is not likely falling to me so I have accepted it haha. As for Collins, picking him in at the 12/13 turn is a bit rich for my taste. He will go back to competing with Tank Dell and now Stefon Diggs, and that is hoping Stroud does not regress at all. In my opinion- I could be wrong on him.
Someone who sets their mind on a position first round is my absolute favorite person to be in a league with. Talk about pigeonholing yourself from round 1.
Anybody telling you "This is definitely the best way" is full of shit.
It depends on numerous factors - what positions do you need to fill? 2 RB 3 WR? 2 RB, 2 WR? PPR or standard? How many teams in the league? Keeper or non keeper?
All of those things have an effect.
First round dependent where I fall, if I can't get a top 3 WR, will go RB. Second through 6 I typically try to fill my RB and WRs maybe take a chance on a QB.
Late rounds looking for diamonds on the rough and hand cuffs.
I just cannot seem to avoid picking RB in the 2nd. Too many quality RBs available and very few WRs. I feel like top WR1 is gone by picks 8-10, and then there's at least 4 studs available at RB until the end of the 2nd, Saquon, Pacheco, Henry, Etienne. I'm going WR in the 1st most of the time, once Amon-Ra JJ & AJ are gone, there's nobody left for WR I like besides Puka, and he's easy to pass on at such a high price
RB can *also* be picked later (in fact even more so if people are snatching up WRs and leaving behind RBs). That said, I tend to pick RBs more than the average manager does. In general, committing to a set position in a given round is too restricting.
I picked up Mostert and Rachaad White in the mid rounds last year. Worked out well! (I got rather lucky no doubt)
Luck is always a huge part of it. I won the chip on the back of James Conner. No one, even 0 RB apostles, would have said "yeah, get Conner, he'll win it all for you."
Matthew Berry did last year.
Every year people stubbornly insist on drafting RB's who were very inefficient the previous season, really helps leave some good picks available in the later rounds
Everyone remembers their RB getting hurt.
A couple of years ago someone said during fantasy draft season "a lot of you also went 0rb but you just don't know it yet" and that is so true basically every year.
Yes but I feel purposely drafting zero RB makes your most likely outcome 6th-3rd place unless you get a magical late round RB1. The teams who draft more balance and get good injury luck win it all.
The teams that get lucky win it all. Going zero RB, Hero RB, QB early, any of them work so long as you just get lucky with the guys you draft or are able to pick up in FA. Fantasy football is like 80% luck. 18% getting to be the person to pick up the boom FA player, and 2% skill from drafting.
RBs get injured more since they get tackled more. You don't need to find a late round rb1. You just need to hit on the receivers and te and QB you take and then you let the chaos of the season with injuries let you find starters each week until someone sticks. Like a Zack Moss last year getting picked up would've been a great option. Mostert was either late or a free agency pick up. But throughout the season there are dozens of these guys who pop up week to week. Ty Chandler was another one. 0 and hero RB is all about unity mitigation knowing that statistically RBs are more likely to be in a committee and they are more likely to miss time. So you have more chances to swoop in and get production every week from guys no one has touched.
Whew. That's a powerful statement. So true
I do this and I got kicked out of a league I was in after winning back to back years in a redraft
If you know your pick beforehand and if you know the level of your competition, you can reasonably sketch out positions per round
My philosophy is you should only take a running back in the first if they check literally every box for having the potential to be a league winning rb. Last year, with the 8th pick I didn’t believe in any of the early rbs after mccaffrey so i went diggs and ceedee lamb and it served me well. This year however, i truly believe that Bijan and breece have the talent and situation to be 20 ppg league winners so i will happily take them. They are under 25, they catch passes, they are elite rushers, and their offense should be at least average to above average if things break right. This is the year to reach for one of the top 3 rbs IMO. And then hammer WRs rounds 2-5 to make up for it.
Do you see JT/Gibbs as having that potential?
I’ll be contrarian and say no. And this isn’t to slight them as players as they are both elite talents. However Richardson will 100% steal touchdowns from JT and based on what we saw Richardson doesn’t target his RBs enough which is crucial for RBs to pay off. The case for Gibbs is simple, Montgomery will get the majority of early down and goal line work so he doesn’t have league winning upside unless Montgomery is hurt. Breece Bijan and Cmac are the only RBs who check every box in terms of work load, pass catching, not having a qb mobile who will steal TDs, and being elite runners. This isn’t to say JT and Gibbs won’t have good fantasy seasons, i simply wouldn’t put them in “league winner” category.
I agree with this. I think CMC, Bijan, and Breece are the only "flawless" hero RBs this year. Taking one of them ensures you'll be at least competent at the position.
I am drafting 8th in an 8 man league. So at the 1-2 turn I am seriously considering taking JT/Gibbs. I believe both of these players have the set up and the skill to break 300+ points this year. I always draft for max possible points with the first 2 picks. I will take Breece/Bijon if they fall to me obviously. Gibbs after week 7 when they unleashed him was averaging around 17 points a game which is 289 on the season. Dan Campbell has said that he wants to get Gibbs the ball more in open space, running routes out of the slot, and more touches in general. He is absolutely primed for a 2nd year true breakout season. JT has scored like 353 in 2021 and is walking into one of the best situations of his career. No competition, colts will be moving the ball down the field with AR or Flacco. I’m also a Colts fan but that doesn’t matter. I don’t see AJB, Puka, or Wilson getting to 300+. ARSB has a chance but I still feel Gibbs will outscore him. Wilson is the X factor, he has the talent and the opportunity but that is banking on Rodgers. Just feels a little risky for me. I have historically gone RB/RB in my drafts and found great depth at WR later in the draft. I have won my league with my friends 7 out of 15 years, no one else has over 2 wins. Some of the WR’s I like in the draft later this year that I am targeting are Mike Evans, DK, Metcalf Cooper Kupp, George Pickins, Ladd McConkey, Diontae Johnson, Terry McLaurin. They are all projected to be #1 WR on their teams.
You're right-on with the later-round WR targets. Trying to get DK, Pickens, Ladd, and Diontae as values this year.
2 years ago in a 12 team full ppr league, I like pick 10, I decided to pass on players like devtonte Adams(forget who else), instead went RB heavy early with Henry, and forget who else. But I was able to get Kirk and Marquis Brown, even Jeudy who had a solid end of year stretch, to fill out my wr. I ended up winning. Last year in a different 10 man half ppr league I went Hill and Lamb as my first two picks, then went Josh Allen third. I won that league. League size and scoring type really matters, but things vary year to year.
Didn't work out if you drafted Nick Chubb last year
Thats a bad way to look at it. Probably didn't work out if you took Kupp or Jefferson either.
Had Chubb and Bijan. Things did not work out the way I had hoped.
I entered last season with a juggernaut in my main dynasty league. At RB: Chubb, Dobbins, Bijan, Ekeler. Three of the four dead after two weeks and the other relegated to Arthur Smith hell. Fantasy can be cruel.
Correct. It’s about picking the right players, not about picking the right position.
Yeah but what if you took Chubb AND Jefferson? (Auction)
I did, actually. And JK Dobbins. 🤦🏻♂️
I thought I was cookin with Dobbins, Kyren, Miles Sanders and Rachaad White. 2/4 ain’t bad I guess
You were expecting Kyren to be valuable when you drafted?
I lost Dobbins week 1 and Chubb week 2. My last hope was to trade for Bijan but he was disappointing so my season was basically over by week 2.
Yea that’s rough. Good luck this year.
me too brother
Chubb was my keeper and I drafted dobbins…still took 2nd place and missed 1st by a couple points. Pain.
My league mate drafted Dobbins AND Chubb and won it all starting Chuba Hubbard lol. Defied the odds
Ha. I did! Managed to draft JT the year he got hurt too. Don't ask me who my RB1 is this year.
drafted him in the 2nd round and still won the league
for context, i drafted chubb twice and kupp once in the first round and won those 3 leagues. Sometimes you just get lucky in the later rounds. I will say, TE and WR are who i want in the first 3 rounds unless a league winning potential RB drops. Im also done taking an early QB, did that this past year in my most important league (for the first time) and regretted it.
Chubb was famously the only injured player league wide
Draft best available player when you're up next to pick
This is great and all, but a lot of the time you’re faced with players in the same tier at WR and RB. It’s easier to say that you have AJ Brown over Puka than it is to say you have Puka over Kyren as well. Harder to compare a RB and WR. I think it’s totally okay to look at the position over individual player, within reason. If there’s a run of 8 WRs to start the draft and CMC is sitting there you don’t consider WR, but in most cases it’s much more balanced. If you really like the RBs in round 3-6 then you take the WRs early, within reason. If you really like the deep WRs and think you can find some hits there but just see a long RB dead zone after RB15 then double tap RB is probably a good strategy.
It comes down to personal preference and ranking. I know which WR I’d take over which RB
How do you determine who that is? Just curious. Everyone has their own lists that they go by.
Make your own list. If you been drafting long enough, you should have a sense of who you’d like to draft. Do what with your comfortable with.
I print out a list and use it as a guideline. I don’t take it as gospel but, you know.
Same. Beforehand I’ll Go through and highlight with different colors on guys I’m willing to reach for and guys I think should be pushed down. There no one on my list that is a “do not draft” guy except Carr.
Ha. So I take it you're out on Olave, too? I might be forced to draft him (if I take the 1.08 pick and pick Breece/Bijan), so I'm trying to get people's takes on him. I like that they (finally) have a new OC.
I think he’ll catch a lot of balls, and I’m local to NOLA but I’m just super low on their offense as a whole. I go into a season and draft with a handful of teams that I will just flat out refuse to draft players from. This year, the saints are one of those teams unless the value is just insane.
Appreciate this insight. Would definitely rather have MHJ than him, but I don't know what other WRs in the 2nd I'd rather take after him (and ahead of Olave). I'm not sold on London or Aiyuk because of their unknowns/target competition.
I’m going all in on London. I think that offense will be dynamic this year. Bijan will look like an MVP and Pitts/London should feast.
Agreed re: Bijan. Hoping so re: London/Pitts. Still think a 2nd is rich as hell for players we haven't "seen it from" yet.
I like to grab an ADP list based off league settings and then go through and mark off guys that I don't like at their ADP. Then I will go back and compare which guys I think are values at their spot and give them a star or something. Then I'll go and give a green check to guys that I really like on the season. That will kind of give me a layout of which rounds I may target a certain position or player
The highest player on your sheet. You brought a sheet, right?
No shit, the question is how do you rank them on your sheet
Find a source you trust. Other people devote their lives to this shit so you don't have to, then make adjustments based on your preferences
Best players near the top of the list.
Of course lol. I’m just curious about how other people approach the draft.
The absolute best advantage you’ll get in snake with your approach will be to NOT limit yourself to an intentional positional strategy per round. “I need to have X RBs by Y round” for example can completely limit your options. Saying you need a TE by round 5, well what if that TE you’re looking at in RD5 is markedly worse than other players at other positions? Don’t just blindly follow that. Observe how your roster is unfolding, and how others particularly between your pick and next pick’s roster is looking. Easy one is if you need a TE at 11 in an odd round, but pick 12 already has a TE, don’t take your TE until the following round - pick 12 is unlikely to draft a second TE. Then your mind is already made up for the next pick. No one strategy will win every league in the draft. I won a PPR superflex league where I took only one QB in the first 7 rounds and it was Joe Burrow who was hurt and ass all year. I made playoffs in a league where 5 of my first 7 picks were Chubb, Pollard, Pierce, Mike Williams and Javonte, and lost in the semis to a Cooper 50 burger. By all accounts it was a bad draft, if not for Cooper explosion I would have won WK16 and then also 17 if I had been in it. But I loved the value at the spots I took those players.
I use fantasy pros consensus draft list
Drafting Christian McCaffrey again seems like a solid plan to me.
Look at R1/R2 ADP and I imagine who will end up in the top 6 in their position. For example, Travis Etienne is currently #26 overall according to Fantasy Pros in .5 PPR https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/half-point-ppr-overall.php. That's low. I think he could be the RB5 or 6. If I could pair him with AJB or JJ or The Sun God that seems pretty good to me. But you have to be flexible. Someone could be picked anytime, so you'd need a back up plan. Draft position is super important too. Like if you are the #2 seed....that's a LOT of picks until you go again in R2. But you will go early in R3. My best draft ever was the #3 seed and I absolutely did my homework for the 2/3 turn.
Etienne's a tough one. He was so disappointing for half the season. It's like, do you think you're gonna get weeks 1-8 Etienne (~19 PPG in 0.5 PPR) or weeks 8-18 Etienne (~11 PPG).
I think he's good 3rd-round pick.
If there's a no doubt stud WR available, someone like Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson or JaMarr Chase, I'll take them first. RBs tend to be hard to predict these days, and there always seems to be some unknown RB that goes off and scores a crazy amount of points during the season, while some of the big name RBs stink it up or have their season ended early by injury. Just my two cents, there's no one perfect way to draft.
Tyreek should be on that list
Yes of course you're right, absolutely. He's top of the list.
Of these three, and since you didn't add Tyreek, I love Lamb. Jefferson is going to have a downgrade at QB and Chase has to avoid both being injured as well as injury to his QB, both of which have seriously affected him the past few years. I'd say Lamb, Chase, Jefferson. Can anyone sell me on Chase here?
Tyreek obviously belongs at the top of the list. I made the edit. As for Chase, I had him last year and he might be QB-proof. Even when Burrow went down late last season and Jake Browning took over at QB, Chase was still tearing it up. Dude can play with anyone at QB.
Chase had 4 single digit PPR games in 7 of Browning's starts. He had one great game but his 2nd best game in those starts was 12.1 points. Definitely not QB proof.
Huh. For some reason I recall Chase doing better than that. Maybe because my expectations for him were rock bottom after Burrow went down.
I have the 1st overall pick this year in a 12 team. Drafting CMC first and then I'm going RB/RB in 2nd and 3rd. I think the scarcity of legit RB1s is going to catch up with teams that prioritize other positions in early rounds. Obviously if a WR gem falls or something then it's different. But I like the WRs in the 4/5/6 rounds better than the RBs in that range.
Most years mid round WRs are better than RBs but honestly I’ve liked the RBs more this year and last year to some extent. When people are taking WR early the RBs get pushed down more. On current Yahoo rankings, WRs like Dell, Higgins, Flowers all go near pick 50 just ahead of Kamara, Dmont, KW3. Personally, I much prefer those RBs
Exactly! That’s what I’m saying. There are a lot of WRs that can give you legitimate points in later rounds. The amount of RBs you can trust are limited.
This is how I’ve always approached ff. I’ve had a lot of success and love playing in a league where people go 0rb. One of the worst possible strategies going into a draft imo
I won my 12 team PPR league last season going 0RB, finished with the best record too. PPR was made to have stud WR’s and then you draft a bunch of lotto ticket RBs.
I mean it’s always just about finding the best value based on how leaguemates are drafting, but statistically speaking, 0 RB has tended to be one of the better strategies on average over the last few years
To what end would you take a WR over those RBs though? What if everyone else has the mindset of going RB-RB-RB as well, and by picks 24 and 25 your options are much better WRs than they are RBs. Would you pivot?
Yeah I have a full board with tiers and everything. But assuming I have an RB and WR available in the same tier, I'll always go RB early.
Yeah I have a full board with tiers and everything. But assuming I have an RB and WR available in the same tier, I'll always go RB early.
This is my strategy as well. Yes, a top WR1 is nice to have, but the drop-off for RBs is insane. If you don't have the clear RB1 on a team, you are getting an RB in a timeshare, which is hard to predict who will play which week, or you are getting a clear RB2, who will be TD dependent or nothing more than a handcuff. WR, you can still find plenty of consistency in the WR2 on teams that throw a lot, so the drop-off is way less severe. Later or mid-round RBs in the draft that hit are typically going to be rookies that end up doing very well, not RB2s or vets with dwindling careers.
Would you rather have Bijan/Breece and Olave/MHJ or Puka/Wilson and Saquon/JT?
BPA Round 1-2 Fill positional gaps middle rounds. Punt on either TE or QB. Last couple of rounds take high ceiling low floor
I honestly think you can punt on both TE AND QB this year. There are just so many values. Kyler, Dak, and Love at QB, and Engram, Kittle, Ferguson, and Njoku at TE are players whose ADP doesn't make sense to me.
Don't *always* do anything, unless you're always drafting for value. Pigeonholing yourself into a specific strategy before the draft even starts is a bad idea.
Just grab the best available player, need to be adaptable to what the rest of your league is doing. I won my PPR league and didn’t pick a WR till the 4th round. I normally prefer getting at least one WR by the second, but it was just based on how other picks went. Going in with too ridged of a plan can hurt more than it helps.
I didn’t pick an RB until round 5 and only lost 2 games the whole year last season. Was definitely going by who was going in my draft
I had pick #12 in a 12t. Went lamb/Amon ra, won the 🏆.
I won last year with pick 1, but have 12 this year and I really don’t like it. I don’t like guys like Garrett Wilson or Puka as my WR1, and Hurts isn’t going to come back around to me so I’d have to take him 1 or 2.
If you've already decided how you're going to draft then you're doing it wrong. Draft rooms are so different from each other, site ADPs are different, league formats are different. Take bpa and build out from there
Imo running backs are just much riskier and less consistent than wr, I also think that they are easier to stream than wr There is a huge drop off in rb after the top 1-3 while that drop off is much slower and less significant for wr. If I can get one of those top tier rb, someone on a great team who is very talented and is going to be a bell cow, I would absolutly love to draft them. It’s so nice to have a really good rb. But if I don’t get one of those top tier ones it’s just not worth wasting a pick on the second tier of them. The second tier is really not that much better than the third tier
Do you include JT, Saquon, and Gibbs in the first or second (or third) tier of RBs?
Imo the other guys I’d put in the top tier are really only saquan and maybe bijan. Jt is right on the edge but I might keep him and Gibbs in 2nd For Gibbs there’s too much competition for touches. I will only put a rb in the top tier if they are an undisputed bell cow. I also think Gibbs relies too much on td. I’m worried about how good the colts offense and team as a whole is going to be, same reason I put breece in tier 2. After last year my new rule is I don’t trust rb on a bad team no matter how good they are. I’m tired of them getting 2 carries in the 4th quarter/always behind so focusing on the pass or the pass game not being able to spread the field enough For all those tier 2 guys I absolutly think they have the potential to end as top 3 rb, I just think that they are riskier and les likely to achieve that
In most cases 2-3 WRs in the first 3 rounds. The first 8 picks I think are pretty well set. CMC and the 5 WRs, then Breece and Bijan. There’s a chance that Bijan sneaks into the top WR tier behind CMC for me, but right now he’s just behind. If I end up with CMC, Breece or Bijan in the first then I’m going WR in the 2nd unless Gibbs falls deeper into the 2nd and it’s PPR. I like the RBs in rounds 4-7 right now compared to the WRs in that area so I want to leave the first 3 rounds with 2 WRs at least if possible.
I have the ability to pick 1.08 through 1.10 and am struggling to decide what I want. Really tempting to take 1.08 to get Bijan/Breece, but then I'm nervous I end up with "only" Olave/MHJ as my best WR options in the 2nd. Meanwhile, if I go 1.10, I can get like Puka or Wilson and then Saquon/JT/Gibbs to give myself a nice WR-RB combination.
Bijan-MHJ or Puka-Gibbs would both be elite pairings with huge upside. I know there’s risk associated with a rookie WR, but Marv looked more than ready to move to the NFL, and is joining a team with a very good QB and virtually no target competition at WR. They also project to be a team with a good offence and a poor defence, something that benefits his scoring opportunities. I have him finishing as WR8 in my projections, and I think even if he struggles to adapt at first he’s a high end WR2. If I’m picking late those are pairings I’m hunting.
They’re are a lot of WRs in the early ADP so I’ll likely have a few of them. If you pivot you’re really going to have to be lucky to keep up all season long. RBs, TEs, and QBs all can be found on the waiver wire but the odds of another Puka falling on your lap is slim to none. For the record I also like taking an RB first if I can but this year is looking tough for early RBs
If you had the ability to pick 1.08 to get Bijan/Breece, would you? If so, who would you be looking to target with your next pick at 2.05 (if a 12-man)?
Depends on what pick you have. I’m definitely not reaching for a running back in the first if I can get a top tier WR and that same guy in the 2nd.
I try to take the best player available in any given round. If WR flys off the board early, then I'll load up on top of the line RBs, and vice versa.
I went heavier on RBs and earlier than I ever have before (Saquon, Breece, Connor, BRob, Bigsby + picked up Kyren off waivers) as really thought I was getting good value while everyone else was prioritizing WRs and it totally backfired, couldn’t make any trades and was stuck with Pickens and Thomas as my WR 2-3
This is a good illustration of the risks and luck involved. Pickens COULD have been a brilliant pick if the Steelers had a decent QB, but he just never got the opportunities that were projected. And then no luck with trades…. You got hit hard
It really depends on your draft mates, draft position, and lineup positions. In standard, the playing field is more even between RB and WR. I’d probably rank your top 50 players and base it off that not worrying about position. I play in 12 team half ppr that was originally standard. My league mates drive up RBs. The draft site’s rankings also heavily influences them as it puts certain players in front of their face to consider. I think my strategy will depend on my draft position. If I’m top half, I’m going to seriously consider Mccaffrey or Bijan because I am more comfortable knowing I’m ahead of the RB run and I’ll get quality WR rounds 2-3. If I’m the back half then I’ll let the draft come to me which will like be a WR such as St Brown or Aj Brown. I may reach on someone I consider to be an rb1 as I like a lot of running backs in rounds 5+ as rb2/flexes but don’t feel comfortable waiting until those rounds for my first rb.
If you had the ability to get Bijan/Breece and Olave/MHJ or Puka/Wilson and JT/Saquon/Gibbs, which combination would you get?
My personal favorite would probably be Bijan paired with MHJ. It’s high risk high reward as they both might be the most talented players in their position but young players where I worry about consistent workload. I wish MHJ was going a bit lower. I would feel more comfortable with him as my second receiver but I would consider taking him in the second round if I can pair him with a DK Metcalf in the third round. I think the safest option would be Breece or JT paired with Olave. Breece is talented on a good (on paper at least) team. I worry about his upside with touchdowns as Rodgers likes to steal those easy 1-2 yard tds. JT has minimal competition on a team with a running QB. The team overall will probably be below average. Olave has no competition but again team will be average to below average. I hope new offensive coordinator will stop mixing in Taysom Hill
Really appreciate your insight/opinions here, man. Thanks a lot!
Of course! Probably will be different options in August depending on adp changes.
Pick the most talented player on the board the 1st 2 rounds, then pivot
Gotta be like water, changing with the tides but most of my drafts have been WR heavy so I zag where they zig. I sccop up RB value and typically end up with 2 RB1s and high end RB 2. However, if the other managers were over drafting RBs then I would go more of a Zero or Hero RB build. There isnt one set strategy you just have to be fluid.
Completely dependent on your format and league etc. WRs generally are a better bet to score more points (especially in ppr) - they also get injured less.
> WRs generally are a better bet to score more points If we're still talking about OP's topic (early-round picks), then the top 5 RBs scored more PPG than the top 5 WRs in 2023 in half PPR. RBs have higher ceilings but WRs are generally safer. It's pretty close though. 2023 was not a great year for hero RBs outside of CMC.
In those top 5 rbs there's at least one that was drafted way outside the early rounds (mostert). A lot of failures in the top rbs last year (ekeler terrible, Chubb injured, pollard and bijan meh)
Bingo, forgetting Kyren as well. It’s the predictability. You can find replaceable RB points in the later rounds, you’re not finding elite WR production there though.
Best position adjusted points differential available
I went wr with my first 3 last year and won. Got lucky with late rb picks Jj, waddle, lamb
Damn.
12 person league. I put together a list of my top 12 players between RB and WR ranking them 1-12 and draft my best available with my first pick. If the first pick ends up being a WR I really try to take a RB in the second but can be flexible depending on how things go
Depending on where I pick. Most times I go for the best position player available.
It depends on your league format. In my case it’s more favorable to pick qb and wr first. Only a couples of rb worth picking early
Go best player available early, there are players at every position that can be found later If you go into a draft with a concrete plan you do not waiver from you'll be disappointed and behind the curve more often than not You can have a tentative plan but if you want to go RB early and 6 are off the board at pick 9, then you're a fool to follow the run, time to go WR in that scenario
Years ago I was more RB heavy, but now I tend to go best player available. Generally, I like to start with a WR and RB in the first 2 rounds. My home league is standard scoring, and even without PPR, it is important to get at least one target hog, stud WR. In best ball drafts, my strategy is different and I've gone WR heavy and hero or zero RB most of the time. It's good to have strategies in mind, but don't be afraid to pivot away from them depending how the draft falls
This depends on what pick you have and if anybody falls to you. I like picking 10-12 for that reason. Best players available!
I trust myself when it comes to waiver wire for RBs so I’m prioritizing WRs early rounds
The 3 players in my league (PPR, 12 teams) last year who drafted WR heavy all finished in the bottom 3. The winner of last years league drafted a RB first then WR in rd 2 and 3. I finished 3rd after drafting 4 RBs rounds 1,2,3,4 and picked up WR2's in the 5th and 6th rounds. I pick up extra RBs for trade capital. I think RBs are the most valuable asset in FF. More and more teams are relying on RBs to get first downs, especially as OL is becoming the most valued position in the NFL (run blocking OL being the most important).
PPR league here. RB’s are gold. For every 1 dominant RB, you have 3 dominate WR’s. Based on final scoring rankings of the 2023 season.
Really good point. There are a lot more viable "good" WRs than there are RBs. Of course, RBs tend to get hurt more, but WRs are more replaceable, at least, in theory.
Correct and when WR go down, there is an easy next man up, most of the time. When RB go down, it’s hard to find one to fill in the role.
I tier the big three, QB, RB, WR and then I do a bunch of mock drafts to see the general area that each of the players at the bottom of each tier will go. Then I try to target getting those players right before they would be drafted. I try not to lock myself into certain positions at certain draft picks because I want to get the best value for my pick each time. As an example, if I have CJ Stroud as the last of the tier 1 QBs and I think he is going around pick 4:06 and I didn't get one of the guys above him I would be targeting him late third or early 4th depending on where I draft because he is the last top tier QB I want to settle for. This year looks to me like another WR heavy start because some many RBs have watered down situations and so many moved teams it's a crap shoot who may emerge as true top dogs. It's one of the reasons that Gibbs is shooting up my rankings, staying in the same situation brings a lot of stability to the projection of his points.
Same this year. I’d say Hero RB is the move if you can get a bellcow RB with receiving upside (CMC, Gibbs, Kyren etc) and pair them with 2 or 3 solid WRs in the top 3-4 rounds. TE seems incredibly deep now. I might make a splash in rounds 4-6 for a solid QB and wait on TE until 6-8. Good year for a Ying Yang approach at TE. Lots of mid-late rd RBs I have my eyes on as well
Man, we're the same. I'm considering picking 1.08 so I can get Breece/Bijan, and then I'm planning on picking a WR in round two, and then going BPA from there. Definitely not looking to take a QB or TE early.
Always draft RB round 1, just about always draft RB rd 2. The position is thin and drop-off is harder for RB then WR. Still plenty of talent in WR with loads of upside into rd 4 or 5, also, think about it like this. We are having this conversation now as if all things are equal, but during the season it's a hell of a lot harder to trade top WR talent for top RB talent then it is the other way around. You pretty much have to tier down in terms of expected return because the workable RBs on teams are neigh irreplaceable for everyone. More times then not I go RB, RB, WR, WR, best at position with the intention to trade him week 2 for the 3rd best RB on the team that has the most RB depth. This insulates you against injury while still covering the Flex, is early enough that the team isn't going to be as sold on that guys talent. And gives you a more solid core then anyone else has for the rest of the season at a fickle position.
If you’ve been doing mock drafts you know it’s gonna be a deep receiver year and the rbs are top heavy…get your RBs early
Would you rather pick 1.08 and get Breece/Bijan and then like Olave/MHJ in the 2nd or 1.10 and get Puka/Wilson and then either JT, Saquon, or Gibbs?
My preference would the be at the turn (1.10) and go puka/JT
I always stick with best player available. I do a live draft with friends and the draft almost never goes the way i thought, doing all these mocks, then the draft comes and it’s a clusterfuck
Haha. Same.
Usually I’m a RB and TE early guy because positional advantages at those positions if you hit (im talkin prime Gronk + CMC) you’re golden. This year however, I’m not sold on ANY receivers after the 2nd round. To me it feels like almost all receivers outside of Chase, CD, Tyreek, and Amon Ra have questions either in the form of questionable QB, unproven talent, or crowded receiver rooms. JJ has a rookie QB, AJB faded end of last year, MHJ is a rookie, guys like Drake London and Pickens haven’t really proven anything yet, HOU, SF, and CHI have crowded WR rooms, the list goes on and on. Meanwhile if you zero RB it you can get lucky and snag some combo of Gus Edwards + Ekeler + Zack Moss and get a dart throw at a guy with a legit RB1 workload on explosive offenses. I’m in on the middle rounds on TE this year. Mandrews is a 2nd/3rd round talent that can’t stay healthy but is being drafted in the 4th/5th right ahead of guys like Kittle Engram and Kincaid. Also in TE you can comfortably wait til 8th or 9th round and snag Njoku or Hock. Weird year and maybe I’m just a hater but the WR landscape is a sea of unknown at premium value to me
If I can get a top tier back with my first pick I’m absolutely taking one just from scarcity of a bell cow with all the rbbc out there. I wouldn’t go back to back unless someone very unexpected dropped to me.
Sounds like you'd rather draft 1.08 and get Breece/Bijan (and then like Olave/MHJ in the 2nd) than 1.10 and getting Puka/Wilson and then like JT/Saquon/Gibbs? (That's the dilemma I'm in.)
Sticking to a set plan is nearly always a trap. Adjust to what happens. Take value. Sure, in standard value a stud RB is important. But sometimes you have a much better WR option available. (Or vice versa.)
Locking into any strategy by position is always a terrible idea. Make your own rankings (at least for early picks) and stick to them based on how the draft flows.
Almost always WR. Wide receiver points/targets are mostly talent based where Running Back points are largely opportunity based.
I usually alternate depending who's available, but one thing I always gotta have a top 5 QB. I don't have any stats to back it up, but mentally I just gotta have one. I couldn't handle the anxiety of playing a whole season with a Baker Mayfield or Trevor Lawrence.
What rounds do you like getting guys? Like, what round(s) would you be comfortable taking the top guys?
BPA
I never do this. There are always ample WR2/WR3 candidates sitting there in the 7/8th round. If you’re only playing with one flex what are you gonna do with your 5 quality wide receivers? You can’t play them all. There’s always a running back shortage by week 5-6, might as well stock up on them early. Odds are one of your 3 first running backs picked will get injured so always good to stack on them early.
The WR is deeper than it’s ever been and the game favors them. I’m taking the rbs I want first, period.
I always draft the number 1 RB then try to get 2 more RB studs, last year it was saquan and Kamara with CMC. I punt TE and QB. Basically go studs and duds in auction.
I used my first round pick on Seattle's D back when LOB was on fire... It really stirred up the room... I took 4th place at the end of the season, mostly thanks to them...lol.
I feel the opposite of the way you do. I like to go RB a bit later and try to get the best WRs I can early. I feel like if a starting RB goes down with a Major injury you have a decent chance of scooping up a plug and play RB1. If a stud WR goes down, there's no guarantee that theres 1 guy behind him that will produce even close to that level. Most often his touches get spread around. I'm also in a FAAB league so im just waiting to pounce on starting level guys. That's how I ended up with guys like Kyren Williams and Ford last year.
THIS. There are a ton of rbs in the 5/6 and handcuffs that can absolutely be league winners if any of the starters go down. Pacheco/Mixon/Zamir/Moss/Spears/Chubba with Brooks/Ford/ Zeke/ Connor with Trey Burton. Yes those guys won't be CMC but it won't matter if Chase, Waddle, Evans, Kupp, Kincaid are starting you off win 100 points per week.
Man, you make great points here and have me reconsidering wanting to pick 1.08 to get Breece/Bijan. (Could also pick 1.10 and double-tap like Puka/Wilson and Adams.)
I used to always go RB-RB to start drafts and would find good value at WR in rounds 3&4. The landscape of the NFL and fantasy football are changing though. It’s just not smart to do that anymore. The only time you should be picking an RB in the first 2 rounds is if they’re an absolute game changer. This year would probably be McCaffrey, Breece, or Bijan. Other than them, you should be taking one of the elite wideouts. Zero RB has become a popular strategy and has the data to back it up. Waiting until round 6 or later to take your first RB has shown to be effective!
If you had the ability to get Breece/Bijan and Olave/MHJ or Puka/Wilson and JT/Saquon/Gibbs, which combination would you take?
Last year wr were gettin drafted like crazy I stacked up on Rbs. TE is an overlooked position I feel like once the top 5 are gone, it does matter who/where u draft the next guys but u can hold off for a while on those mid tiered TEs
TE seems pretty deep this year. You are right 5-12 are basically a toss up. If you miss on Kincaid or Andrew’s might as well wait until like Ferguson in the late rounds. Don’t be alarmed by a run on TE’s in the middle of the draft either. There are likely a few guys thinking the same thing as you.
Now I'm drafting heavy wide receivers
It depends on your roster settings. Our league is QB, 3 WR, 2 RB, TE and a Flex. I tend to go best player available as I can either go extra RB or WR in the Flex spot. One season I was stacked at WR so I usually played 4 WR and the 2 RBs. My league mates tend to favor RBs early so I’ll stack up on the WR. WR is usually a safe position as the RBs tend to be injured more as well.
I went WR WR WR WR in my 12 team PPR league last season, I finished with the best record and won the championship. Go heavy on WR early in PPR.
We have a roster of 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 2 flex. By the end of the 5th round, I want at least the 3 WRs taken care of, but I’m ready to pivot if I need to.
Don’t love restricting myself to one position in a certain round. It all depends on how the board falls and who my league mates are. I will say generally if I miss out on CMC, Hall, or Bijan in round 1 I typically find myself taking WR.
Would you rather pick 1.08 to get Breece/Bijan than 1.10 getting like Puka or Wilson and then (probably) being able to get JT/Saquon/Gibbs?
I prefer the 1.08 if Bijan or Hall are there.
It honestly depends where are you at in the draft... I have the 2nd pick and am not all that thrilled about it because i want to go w/ Breece Hall or Bijan, but think i have to go with a WR because there is a big drop off of talent at WR at the end of the 2nd round and top of 3rd. It also depends if some studs end up dropping to you, then that may change strategy. I like to spread the picks out to each position and fill my starting spots with the best available and then go RB for depth sooner and WR depth later rounds. Harder to find a starting RB for teams in later rounds than a teams WR2/3 that can make an impact
Would you rather draft 1.08 to get Breece/Bijan (and then probably Olave or MHJ in the 2nd) or 1.10 to get Puka/Wilson and then probably JT, Saquon, or Gibbs in the 2nd?
Both are pretty good options to be honest, but 1.10 i'd feel better to have a guarantee of options. I'm taking JT or Gibbs at 1.10 and Puka If it's 1.08 i'm taking Breece/Bijan (Most likely Bijan since Breece is gone, but no guarantee Bijan is there either), and honestly i'm going Davante or Olave. (If Minshew can win the job then Davante is gonna have a monster year)
My strategy is to get lucky with the players I pick. Anyone who says differently is fooling themselves. There is no "winning strategy" to this game. Every single draft is different. QB early, Hero RB, zero RB, 3x WR, Kelce first rount. All of them can and will win a shit ton of leagues this year. It all comes down to luck that your early round picks stay healthy, and/or you are able to capitalize on whoever is going to be this years FA darling.
And your later-round picks.
Go best player available and figure out the deadzones. Make it so that you can get a solid RB where you don’t like the WRs, and vice versa. This year is tough for me at pick 12/12 because I like some of the RBs like KW3 and Conner in later rounds, BUT I don’t like the WRs at pick 12 and 13 - I’m not happy with Puka or Wilson as my WR1. I won last year taking QB early (Hurts), but he won’t come back around to me, so I’d have to take him with my 1/2 pick, which may be too rich for me. So I’m still figuring it out, I might just split it this year and go something like Puka/Gibbs, then see if I can grab Lamar, then best available. Really targeting Conner and KW3 later. I’m in a Detroit-based league, so Gibbs may be gone before pick 12, so I’d prob reach for Kyren over Saquon.
Also in a Michigan-based league (Go Lions!), but I think Puka and Wilson would be solid WR1s, assuming you'd grab one of JT, Saquon, or Gibbs next to them (as you mentioned). Good foundational pieces for both positions and would allow you flexibility for them for the rest of the draft.
draft the best value over replacement i can find pretty much regardless of position. as usual. dont force some stupid strategy from a website made to get clicks.
Outside of the top 3-4 RBs, I basically have the next 10-12 all lumped into one big tier, so I usually do hero RB with one of them in RD 2 or 3, and then get WRs for the other first 4 rounds (we only have 1 RB spot and have 3 flexes). I had been picking up a few later round (7-11) RBs, but lately I've been trying to grab a solid 2nd and sometimes 3rd RB in rounds 5-8 because all the good QBs are getting taken earlier in mocks now.
If yo can get CMC then take RB first round, otherwise I see absolutely zero reason not to go WR-WR
I find RBs tough to predict, and they tend to get hurt faster than other positions… I usually end up with a 12 team league (unfortunately) so I would rather get 2 top WRs than 1 RB that is a superstar and miss out on other more consistent players. The position itself is the problem, not the players. Also I run half-PPR with FD bonuses, if that helps. I find that balances out RBs. Also also, I donʻt always win so maybe my methods are flawed? Lol.
I prefer rb heavy team, it's served me well. 3 ships in the past 5 years. I know I'm probably in the minority here, but there's a million different ways to play fantasy football.
Same here. I’ve won twice in the last four years and I try to go RB heavy in early rounds. I’m not sure why some of these people are saying you can get star RBs in later rounds so I should take WRs early lol. They’re playing in weird leagues I guess.
A lot of the "experts" go wr heavy. And then places like reddit become echo chambers. We're all just faking it. Some of the teams I felt best about after draft day have finished the season just awful.
If I’m playing standard I’m trying to land a top rb pretty fast unless I’m near end of a snake draft. Might go top wr and then a rb.
Zig when othe people are zagging to get the maximum value for each draft. If I see people going WR heavy early, I respond with attacking RB targets, and then pick up my mid-tier WRs later, picking guys with upside and athleticism over hype. This strategy allows me to usually be able to flip my roster quicker, and can sometimes land you real high octane studs at great value.
In either order first and second picks are RB and WR
Eayl picks I like to go BPA, pending redraft or dynasty, go for the most elite talent you can get early.
Best player available + reach for Josh Allen.
Best player available but find difference makers with room to be better than projected but a safe floor. I went Ceedee first last year at 9 and it carried me but people were questioning the pick when I made it. Went chubb at 11 and dobbins a few rounds later but still won the chip
Damn.
I have always been a firm believer of drafting 2 WRs and 1 RB with my first 3 picks
What order, though?
Typically I go WR, RB, WR or WR, WR, RB
WR-WR (Lamb 10, Sun God 15) served me well in 2023. My league makes champs pick last so I’ll be #12 this year. I’ll still likely opt to reach on Garrett Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr. injuries and split workloads are just too common for RBs. I went zero RB last year and got Rachaad White and Kyren Williams. You cannot get late pulls like that at WR.
You mean you can’t get collins or puka lol?
I would 100% take Puka over the guys I mentioned. I just know my league mates well, and he is not likely falling to me so I have accepted it haha. As for Collins, picking him in at the 12/13 turn is a bit rich for my taste. He will go back to competing with Tank Dell and now Stefon Diggs, and that is hoping Stroud does not regress at all. In my opinion- I could be wrong on him.
In a standard league, sure grabbing RBs in the early rounds is fine. But in PPR leagues, we are fully in the Zero RB era and I'm completely on board
If ppr I usually go wr, then rb.
Someone who sets their mind on a position first round is my absolute favorite person to be in a league with. Talk about pigeonholing yourself from round 1.
Anybody telling you "This is definitely the best way" is full of shit. It depends on numerous factors - what positions do you need to fill? 2 RB 3 WR? 2 RB, 2 WR? PPR or standard? How many teams in the league? Keeper or non keeper? All of those things have an effect.
First round dependent where I fall, if I can't get a top 3 WR, will go RB. Second through 6 I typically try to fill my RB and WRs maybe take a chance on a QB. Late rounds looking for diamonds on the rough and hand cuffs.
If I take a RB in the first I am looking for a guy with a high floor that has no competition for carries.
I just cannot seem to avoid picking RB in the 2nd. Too many quality RBs available and very few WRs. I feel like top WR1 is gone by picks 8-10, and then there's at least 4 studs available at RB until the end of the 2nd, Saquon, Pacheco, Henry, Etienne. I'm going WR in the 1st most of the time, once Amon-Ra JJ & AJ are gone, there's nobody left for WR I like besides Puka, and he's easy to pass on at such a high price
I generally take best available. But I’ve been let down by RBs way more so I tend to value the position a little higher