>Interesting response to the first question here. As @DanBarreiroKFAN and I discussed yesterday, if Jefferson was simply seeking to exceed the top WR contract, there probably would have been a deal last summer.
- Kevin Seifert on [X](https://twitter.com/SeifertESPN/status/1755636866173272551?t=OQC1cB0_rkabghRctuY66Q&s=19)
My personal favorite question asked by Andrew was this:
>Do you pass on doing a deal this summer if there's still uncertainty on who the long term QB is?
Justin:
>that's a great question, I really don't know at this very moment. I'd have to see if we really bring back Kirk or not, or if we decide to want to draft a QB, or pick up a QB. All of that plays a part, but also I still managed to get a 1000 yards by playing through 4 different QBs aswell so it really doesn't matter too much who's throwing me that ball aslong as someone is throwing it to me.
>I have the ability to make plays if the ball is 100 percent accurate or if it's a little behind, or a little Infront or a little off. Having Kirk be that captain and throw the ball as accurate as he does it definitely helps.
Twitter is going to be very selective on that answer depending on their agenda lol
I read it as this:
"I'm going to gain monster yards no matter what turd sandwich is back there slinging it, so long as they throw the ball frequently in my general direction. But yes I'd prefer they not suck if that is your question."
JJ putting up ~160 ypg in the 2 games that Mullens was prepped as QB1 kind of supports the idea that JJ doesn't really care who the QB is as long as the QB gets him the ball.
It might also make an argument to stick with Mullens as the bridge if we draft a guy. Going out and getting a safer bridge QB might be more likely to win games for us, but we know Mullens is aggressive and decisive enough to keep JJ fed, even if he's also going to throw multiple ints per game.
Huh? JJ 100% cares who the QB is and I’m sure him being on the receiving end of an underthrown ball against the Lions from Mullens made him miss competency at that position.
Oh it definitely matters. I think he would much prefer getting balls from cousins or Mullens last year vs Dobbs and hall. Wr is a dependent position on who’s throwing the ball makes a huge difference
I think people underestimate the fact that Mullens is actually a pretty good slinger of the football. His pick issues will always hold him back, but you could certainly do much worse than having him as a back up. Mullens also seems to grasp the idea of feeding your stars to get them going.
Basically the reason I wouldn’t mind just rolling with Mullens. He tends to give his guys a chance and push the ball downfield. He may not be good but he’s at least exciting.
The one thing I like about Mullens is that he took that shot against the lions. Not to knock Kirk, but so many times when we needed something we’ve seen him check down. Yes hitting powell would have extended things, but it was nice seeing a guy go for the chance that presented itself.
I think Mullens is a bit better than people give him credit for. Between weeks 15-18 he was 14th in EPA and 4th in CPOE. He also ended the season with the 2nd highest depth of target. Dudes got turnover issues but he provided much more than Dobbs. He'd be a solid bridge qb and only costs like $2.5M next year.
I don't think Kirk's willing to go year to year, especially if a team's willing to offer him a multi-year deal for an AAV close to what we'd be willing to pay him for one year.
Blasphemy incoming
Since 2000, of the 44 teams who played in the Super Bowl only 14 had an all-pro receiver
Of the 14 - only 3 accounted for more than $7m to salary cap (hill 2020, jones 2016, Owens 2004)
But you know what’s extremely common amongst Super Bowl teams = high earning defensive linemen. Every year the Super Bowl contains all pro d linemen. The statistics are staggering when you get to the final four teams every year as all have top 10 paid d linemen.
Don’t pay WR’s
Pay d linemen.
Winning in the trenches is huge, I agree. Looking back the last few years though very talented WRs have been in the Super Bowl… Aj brown last year with the eagles, bengals rams in 2022 has Kupp and Chase, Evans and Tyreek hill the year before that.
Best path forward imo is pay JJ get a rookie qb and use the qb savings on the trenches. We will need to move on from Kirk in the next few years, we should prioritize ensuring the next QB has all the help he can get to grow into a franchise star and throwing to the best WR in football is a huge step in that direction.
AJ brown was 5.6m cap hit last season
Kupp was $1.5m when they won the Super Bowl
Good/great receivers can win a superbowl.
But paying great receivers hurts you.
This is a hard concept to grasp in the NFL stat heavy fantasy world. We are Vikings fans and we have the best WR in football so “pay him!”
But the answer may not be what we see with our eyes. For the same price as JJ you can pick up Van Ginkel, Maduilbuike, and possibly re-sign Hunter. That’s being ridiculous but 3 very good/great interior defenders are more helpful than 1 elite wide receiver.
I’ve been an avid Kirk hater since we signed him. But I’d say this coming season is the first season that we can have a legitimate team around him that can win a Super Bowl. But you have to go all in on defense.
Signing JJ and drafting a rookie QB in the first can be a nightmare scenario in 99 out of 100 situations.
The reality is we don’t have the talent to make a real run, we just don’t. We have too many holes to fill on both sides of the ball. We need a solid draft or two to truly compete. Now is the perfect time to get the rookie qb so they can learn and we can build around that. Not to mention we still have dead money on Kirk and extending JJ regardless of how much can, and likely will, be structured to not impact our cap much this season.
I truly do get where you’re coming from, I see the argument about overpaying for a position and how it can hamstring a team. In my opinion, because we’re not a true competitor this year I’d rather do everything we can to ensure a rookie qb can grow and succeed. Too many times do we see qbs flame out with no help. Signing a bunch of above average vets for a few years doesn’t really help us long term.
Wonderful commentary.
I find it odd that we'd want to roll out the money book for position group which skews so obviously young in performance. It's a bit awful to say, but RB and (to a lesser extent WR) are position groups which favor draft capital over salary capital.
More generally, I find it wild that we've been historically averse to paying a QB $40MM, yet we want to pay a similar amount to a WR (a position group with \~1/3 the impact when looking at statistical study). I understand JJ's historical production, but the in | out splits when we were missing JJ vs Kirk were pretty stark. One makes the team substantially better than the other.
Think your take is good if we’re trying to stay competitive and make a legitimate run.
Im in the “draft rookie QB and sign JJ” boat to start acquiring the other pieces the team desperately needs. Sure, maybe this rookie QB will suck… but I can tell you he’s gonna be cheap as fuck for the next few years. Cap space is going to be tough with our player contracts we have coming up.
Who knows. Maybe one of the QBs we saw start this past season will turn out alright after the offseason. Plz
Yep. It's why even though it's very easy to say "Trading JJ is a dumb decision," thinking about **how much** they could get for him in a trade is certainly interesting. If they get 2 1sts and 2 2nds **and** don't have to pay him 40+m/year? I can certainly see the appeal.
This is pretty dumb. I mean first of all, until 2016, AP gave out 6 first-team all-pro slots to D linemen but only 2 (2006-2019) or 3 (2000-2005) to receivers. Of course it's going to be more common for D linemen to show up there, by like 2.5x. Except, in that same time, there's only been 2x as many first team DLs as WRs in the super bowl. 18 of those 44 teams had first-team D linemen, but 10 had all pro WRs. Given the larger number of DL spots given out, that just looks more favorable to WRs than anything.
Not to mention that the best team in the league doesn't always make the super bowl, all pro votes are better then the pro bowl but still imperfect, and, most importantly, there are multiple ways to build great NFL teams. JJ is more valuable than any non-QB in the league, it would be incredibly dumb not to extend him.
There are 6 all pro WR slots and you can remove all pro from the calculation and just look at top 10 in payroll at position.
High paid WR’s don’t win superbowls.
High paid Defensive Linemen do
*Good* defensive linemen win super bowls. *Good* WRs win super bowls. Javon Hargrave making the 3rd highest DT money last year didn't get the Eagles to the Super Bowl, AJ Brown did. Hargrave didn't get SF to the Super Bowl this year, Deebo and Aiyuk did (and Nick Bosa, who's outside the top 10 in cap hit this year). Did the 2019 Chiefs get a ring because Sammy Watkins was the highest paid WR in the league? No, they got it because of Tyreek Hill (who they had just extended) and Chris Jones (on his *rookie deal*). There are plenty of ways to attack both positions, you don't have to pick up a free agent edge and give him a record-setting contract. You can draft him. The Niners don't have any DL making top 10 money this year, the 2019 Chiefs didn't, the 2018 Pats didn't, the 2017 Eagles didn't... there's not just one right answer here.
As far as the all pro thing, there's 3 on the first team and 3 on the second. If you want to count both teams and double them both, that's cool, there's still 3x as many D linemen selected as WRs for most of those years, and 2x as many for the rest. It's silly when 4 teams can have a WR selected but 10-12 can have a lineman, of course it'll seem like there's one in the super bowl every year. By the way, every team with an all-pro wide receiver made the playoffs this year, only 6/8 DL did. 1 of each made the Super Bowl, despite there being more DL spots
That’s only an opinion that AJ Brown, Deebo, and Aiyuk played more of a role than Hargrave
Ironic choice to pull a Dlineman getting consecutive teams to the superbowl when the other players you mention were on their aforementioned teams without Hargrave and didn’t make the superbowl
This is the deception of skill positions in the nfl. They have the stats and appear to make a difference but the games are won in the trenches
Lmao okay yeah it's not just a coincidence that Hargrave was on two super bowl teams (I thought you said highly paid linemen *won* Super Bowls?? Where's his ring? Also, how will he and Chris Jones both win this year?). Clearly I'd rather have him on my team than JJ.
Come on man.
No, I said their is a correlation between the top
paid defensive linemen in the final four of the nfl championship games and there is not a correlation between the top paid receivers and teams that play in the Super Bowl.
I wonder if there are any useful patterns among the teams that made the superbowl with an all-pro receiver.
Obviously having a good pass rush is key, since that's the piece(s) on defense that can do the most to impact every play. But you have to have a good offense to make it deep in the playoffs, and I wonder if the teams who made the playoffs without an HOF-trajectory QB were more or less likely to have a highly paid or all-pro receiving option.
They focus on wins vs. superbowl outcomes. However, the study looking at positional spend is interesting.
QB and TE spend is most positively correlated with wins. OL and RB are most negatively correlated with spend. The OL point is interesting and makes me wonder how important ecosystems/coaching are to a team's success.
https://nycdatascience.com/blog/student-works/nfl-analysis-positional-spend-the-impact-on-performance/
I'm guessing this type of analysis suffers from not having enough data to draw meaningful conclusions.
A 6 year period is short enough that you could be biased by whether or not the superstars at each position are currently on rookie deals or making the big bucks.
It might be interesting to re-do the analysis using something like positional AV totals rather than spending, and see how it changes the rankings at all. Maybe there's a way to see which positions are worth spending on by identifying which positions are the most important to have stars at, and where stars are the hardest to find on rookie contracts.
I agree this analysis doesn't answer the question of positional spend as much as relative return on salary capital.
I've seen studies which look to quantify positional value by looking at holdout of a starter (typically due to injury) and observing the shift in vegas odds or win % as a result. Said studies are performance agnostic and a bit more of a piecewise view of WAR... though, notably, those studies put 3-20x+ as much value on a QB starter as any other position group.
I’ve always really really disliked this kind of discussion. It never has been about where the money goes, it’s about fitting as many top players on a roster as possible. It doesn’t matter if that’s at DT, S, TE, RB, Qb or whatever. You need to pay extremely good football players a lot to stay on your team. You can only win doing that by having other great football players on cheaper deals elsewhere. If you’re paying a WR 30M, a RB 12, a S 12, and a TE 15 or whatever it just means you better have a damn good QB on a cheap deal and a great DE on a cheap deal. The Texans could spend the next 3 years paying a guy like JJ 35M and it would be an ENORMOUS positive for their team because they’re paying CJ, not 50M. They can pay Christian Wilkins 18M for 3 years because they’re not giving Will Anderson 23M a year. Just hoard good players and you will win.
The excess value in your example is entirely a result of CJ. That $35MM APY contract gets Chris Jones, Bosa, Donald, or another top-tier player (and potentially multiple) if it doesn't get JJ.
Good NFL GMs will look to optimize both forms of capital which they have available (i.e., draft capital and salary capital).
The look that I presented above focuses on salary capital. Other looks focus on the best return on draft capital. Some of the best draft capital looks which I have seen work to equate draft pick value to equivalent salary capital (example below). This is helpful in the context of a team like the Vikings which would have to give up a ton of draft capital (multiple 1st round picks) with the hope of drafting a top QB and saving on salary capital.
https://opensourcefootball.com/posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/
I have not analyzed all of this but there is at least a pretty good correlation between having a good passing game and getting to the superbowl. There is also a good correlation between having good pass defense and getting to the superbowl.
This year's 49ers have excellent pass catching targets, maybe best in the league considering depth plus Kittle/McCaffrey. Not sure if any of those WR's are "all pro". However their opponent the Chiefs do not. Ironically the Chiefs did not have a strong passing game on paper this season. But the Chiefs also went to SB with Tyreek Hill who is one of the three best.
Rams had Kupp. Bengals had Chase. Bucs had Evans. Pats had Moss the one superbowl but were generally light on WR's in their runs. They did have the best TE ever though. Falcons had Julio. Eagles didn't have much when they won it.
I just rattled off the last few teams and from a cursory glance it sure looks like Superbowl teams have had fantastic pass catchers. I think you do have to roll the WR's and TE's together if you are looking at it that way. Having Kelce is just as good for your passing game as an Elite WR.
Maybe they weren't "All Pro" that season but yeah most SB teams have really good pass catchers.
Like I’ve said before, there is a certain number where paying JJ could be detrimental to the team.
And in that case, seeking a trade for a haul (preferably a historic haul) would be the best route for the team’s long term success.
Sure, there is. However that’s not a real number that people will be throwing around or should be expecting though. I find it silly how we see people acting like its not just gonna be a bump of what the current best WR is getting. We’re not talking 45M. We’re talking 32-36. We know how market resetting contracts raise the bar.
> we’re not talking $45M
Are we sure? Every day that goes by, I feel like we are getting closer and closer to that number.
If it was $32-$36 or even $38, I feel like a deal is done by now.
Yeah. Like 50+ per year over 5 years is probably the point that it's not worth it, whatever he gets won't approach being not-worth-it territory.
He's the most valuable non-QB in the league. Contracts go up. Cap space doesn't win you games
I’m sorry but this dude is way too good to be playing the cap game. If I’m the Vikings I am bending over backwards, and then backwards again, shit maybe even three times to lock up JJ long term.
This all boils down to him being one of, if not arguably the best football player in the world right now. QB money, WR money, none of that shit matters. He’s a generational talent and if we traded him I think a lot of heads would roll throughout the organization.
They can pay his ass Elon Musk money for all I care. There are very, very few players you bend over backwards in terms of pure talent and skill, clutch ability, and he’s one of them.
But dude, think about what we could get in a trade! Like, multiple first round picks. One of those picks could even turn into an All-Pro WR, or even a top 15 guy! Wouldn't that be so much better!?
>One of those picks could even turn into an All-Pro WR,
Enough with this stupid fucking line. He wouldn't need to be JJ to still come out ahead potentially.
>I’m sorry but this dude is way too good to be playing the cap game.
Did the league add a cap exception for your favorite player? Must have missed that Schefter tweet.
The Vikings FO has been extremely fair with the extensions they’ve given out already. JJ is most likely asking for way more than they’re comfortable with, otherwise the deal would have been done before last season.
The biggest reason to keep JJ would be if you bring in a rookie QB. We’ve seen how young Qbs can flame out without a supporting cast.
Would Bryce be viewed as a total bust as a Viking? Likely no. So to me JJ is almost insurance that the rookie QB you picked has the best chance of being successful.
I really don't want him to go, but I get a bit annoyed when he's just jumping all over the place with his answers. I get he's looking out for himself and his agent probably doesn't want him giving definitive answers, but as a fan it truly is annoying. You can't say it doesn't matter who's throwing to you but also say that whether or not we re-sign Kirk is going to affect things. I'm not mad, I'm more just over this conversation. I'm going to avoid any kind of discourse about him until he's either extended or officially planning to leave. Full attention to the draft for me!
Of course it matters. Wr is a dependent position. You can be as good as anyone but if your QB can’t get you the ball it hurts you. I am sure JJ prefers playing with Kirk or Mullens over Dobbs/ hall.
He doesn’t want to talk himself out of a potential deal by implying he’d only want to get throws from Kirk. But an accurate passer obviously makes his job easier
Honestly I think we're lucky he isn't already pissed off with the team about not getting a deal last off season. If I were him, there's no chance I would have played without a new contract. There's really not much more you can ask from him. He's shown up to everything and hasn't bitched about anything.
Been saying he's going to force a trade since early last year. Still think he will sign and demand a trade after another lackluster year, because then you'll see all the "I want to play for a winner" quotes as GB and Lions continue to draft better than us and KOC keeps being Frazier 2.0 and not changing his gameplans.
Trade JJ to Texans for 2 FRPs and a second, 23 and their second rounder this year, plus their first rounder next year. Draft best available QB at 11. If overshooting for the QB at 11 take best available player and draft QB at 23 or in second round. Let Kirk walk. Resign Hunter. Sign Derrick Henry to give rookie QB some run game support.
If they pay JJ QB money, Kwesi will be released within 2 years. Absolutely dumb move. Kwesi should be taking a page out of the ravens book (Lamar) by letting JJ go shop himself out there to see if a GM is foolish enough to give him QB money at the cost of a couple 1sts. We all know NO GM will pay a WR 45m a year unless they know they are on the way out and want to motherfuck the next guy.
>Interesting response to the first question here. As @DanBarreiroKFAN and I discussed yesterday, if Jefferson was simply seeking to exceed the top WR contract, there probably would have been a deal last summer. - Kevin Seifert on [X](https://twitter.com/SeifertESPN/status/1755636866173272551?t=OQC1cB0_rkabghRctuY66Q&s=19) My personal favorite question asked by Andrew was this: >Do you pass on doing a deal this summer if there's still uncertainty on who the long term QB is? Justin: >that's a great question, I really don't know at this very moment. I'd have to see if we really bring back Kirk or not, or if we decide to want to draft a QB, or pick up a QB. All of that plays a part, but also I still managed to get a 1000 yards by playing through 4 different QBs aswell so it really doesn't matter too much who's throwing me that ball aslong as someone is throwing it to me. >I have the ability to make plays if the ball is 100 percent accurate or if it's a little behind, or a little Infront or a little off. Having Kirk be that captain and throw the ball as accurate as he does it definitely helps. Twitter is going to be very selective on that answer depending on their agenda lol
I read it as this: "I'm going to gain monster yards no matter what turd sandwich is back there slinging it, so long as they throw the ball frequently in my general direction. But yes I'd prefer they not suck if that is your question."
No tea leaves needed. This is exactly what he said lol
DING!
JJ putting up ~160 ypg in the 2 games that Mullens was prepped as QB1 kind of supports the idea that JJ doesn't really care who the QB is as long as the QB gets him the ball. It might also make an argument to stick with Mullens as the bridge if we draft a guy. Going out and getting a safer bridge QB might be more likely to win games for us, but we know Mullens is aggressive and decisive enough to keep JJ fed, even if he's also going to throw multiple ints per game.
Huh? JJ 100% cares who the QB is and I’m sure him being on the receiving end of an underthrown ball against the Lions from Mullens made him miss competency at that position.
Also the literal hospital pass from Dobbs that took him out of the Raiders game.
Oh it definitely matters. I think he would much prefer getting balls from cousins or Mullens last year vs Dobbs and hall. Wr is a dependent position on who’s throwing the ball makes a huge difference
I think people underestimate the fact that Mullens is actually a pretty good slinger of the football. His pick issues will always hold him back, but you could certainly do much worse than having him as a back up. Mullens also seems to grasp the idea of feeding your stars to get them going.
Basically the reason I wouldn’t mind just rolling with Mullens. He tends to give his guys a chance and push the ball downfield. He may not be good but he’s at least exciting.
The one thing I like about Mullens is that he took that shot against the lions. Not to knock Kirk, but so many times when we needed something we’ve seen him check down. Yes hitting powell would have extended things, but it was nice seeing a guy go for the chance that presented itself.
I think Mullens is a bit better than people give him credit for. Between weeks 15-18 he was 14th in EPA and 4th in CPOE. He also ended the season with the 2nd highest depth of target. Dudes got turnover issues but he provided much more than Dobbs. He'd be a solid bridge qb and only costs like $2.5M next year.
Have Kirk be the bridge Qb and let a round one rookie talent sit behind him and learn.
I don't think Kirk's willing to go year to year, especially if a team's willing to offer him a multi-year deal for an AAV close to what we'd be willing to pay him for one year.
I would give him a 2 to 3 year extension. If he regresses I’m yesr 2 or 3 you can bench him and put in the Qb you spent over a year grooming
I'd rather not pay a guy upwards of 40M/year if he's not gonna be the starter the whole time.
Blasphemy incoming Since 2000, of the 44 teams who played in the Super Bowl only 14 had an all-pro receiver Of the 14 - only 3 accounted for more than $7m to salary cap (hill 2020, jones 2016, Owens 2004) But you know what’s extremely common amongst Super Bowl teams = high earning defensive linemen. Every year the Super Bowl contains all pro d linemen. The statistics are staggering when you get to the final four teams every year as all have top 10 paid d linemen. Don’t pay WR’s Pay d linemen.
Winning in the trenches is huge, I agree. Looking back the last few years though very talented WRs have been in the Super Bowl… Aj brown last year with the eagles, bengals rams in 2022 has Kupp and Chase, Evans and Tyreek hill the year before that. Best path forward imo is pay JJ get a rookie qb and use the qb savings on the trenches. We will need to move on from Kirk in the next few years, we should prioritize ensuring the next QB has all the help he can get to grow into a franchise star and throwing to the best WR in football is a huge step in that direction.
AJ brown was 5.6m cap hit last season Kupp was $1.5m when they won the Super Bowl Good/great receivers can win a superbowl. But paying great receivers hurts you. This is a hard concept to grasp in the NFL stat heavy fantasy world. We are Vikings fans and we have the best WR in football so “pay him!” But the answer may not be what we see with our eyes. For the same price as JJ you can pick up Van Ginkel, Maduilbuike, and possibly re-sign Hunter. That’s being ridiculous but 3 very good/great interior defenders are more helpful than 1 elite wide receiver. I’ve been an avid Kirk hater since we signed him. But I’d say this coming season is the first season that we can have a legitimate team around him that can win a Super Bowl. But you have to go all in on defense. Signing JJ and drafting a rookie QB in the first can be a nightmare scenario in 99 out of 100 situations.
The reality is we don’t have the talent to make a real run, we just don’t. We have too many holes to fill on both sides of the ball. We need a solid draft or two to truly compete. Now is the perfect time to get the rookie qb so they can learn and we can build around that. Not to mention we still have dead money on Kirk and extending JJ regardless of how much can, and likely will, be structured to not impact our cap much this season. I truly do get where you’re coming from, I see the argument about overpaying for a position and how it can hamstring a team. In my opinion, because we’re not a true competitor this year I’d rather do everything we can to ensure a rookie qb can grow and succeed. Too many times do we see qbs flame out with no help. Signing a bunch of above average vets for a few years doesn’t really help us long term.
Wonderful commentary. I find it odd that we'd want to roll out the money book for position group which skews so obviously young in performance. It's a bit awful to say, but RB and (to a lesser extent WR) are position groups which favor draft capital over salary capital. More generally, I find it wild that we've been historically averse to paying a QB $40MM, yet we want to pay a similar amount to a WR (a position group with \~1/3 the impact when looking at statistical study). I understand JJ's historical production, but the in | out splits when we were missing JJ vs Kirk were pretty stark. One makes the team substantially better than the other.
Think your take is good if we’re trying to stay competitive and make a legitimate run. Im in the “draft rookie QB and sign JJ” boat to start acquiring the other pieces the team desperately needs. Sure, maybe this rookie QB will suck… but I can tell you he’s gonna be cheap as fuck for the next few years. Cap space is going to be tough with our player contracts we have coming up. Who knows. Maybe one of the QBs we saw start this past season will turn out alright after the offseason. Plz
Yep. It's why even though it's very easy to say "Trading JJ is a dumb decision," thinking about **how much** they could get for him in a trade is certainly interesting. If they get 2 1sts and 2 2nds **and** don't have to pay him 40+m/year? I can certainly see the appeal.
I remember when a team traded a top-3 WR and won the Superbowl the next year.
This is pretty dumb. I mean first of all, until 2016, AP gave out 6 first-team all-pro slots to D linemen but only 2 (2006-2019) or 3 (2000-2005) to receivers. Of course it's going to be more common for D linemen to show up there, by like 2.5x. Except, in that same time, there's only been 2x as many first team DLs as WRs in the super bowl. 18 of those 44 teams had first-team D linemen, but 10 had all pro WRs. Given the larger number of DL spots given out, that just looks more favorable to WRs than anything. Not to mention that the best team in the league doesn't always make the super bowl, all pro votes are better then the pro bowl but still imperfect, and, most importantly, there are multiple ways to build great NFL teams. JJ is more valuable than any non-QB in the league, it would be incredibly dumb not to extend him.
There are 6 all pro WR slots and you can remove all pro from the calculation and just look at top 10 in payroll at position. High paid WR’s don’t win superbowls. High paid Defensive Linemen do
*Good* defensive linemen win super bowls. *Good* WRs win super bowls. Javon Hargrave making the 3rd highest DT money last year didn't get the Eagles to the Super Bowl, AJ Brown did. Hargrave didn't get SF to the Super Bowl this year, Deebo and Aiyuk did (and Nick Bosa, who's outside the top 10 in cap hit this year). Did the 2019 Chiefs get a ring because Sammy Watkins was the highest paid WR in the league? No, they got it because of Tyreek Hill (who they had just extended) and Chris Jones (on his *rookie deal*). There are plenty of ways to attack both positions, you don't have to pick up a free agent edge and give him a record-setting contract. You can draft him. The Niners don't have any DL making top 10 money this year, the 2019 Chiefs didn't, the 2018 Pats didn't, the 2017 Eagles didn't... there's not just one right answer here. As far as the all pro thing, there's 3 on the first team and 3 on the second. If you want to count both teams and double them both, that's cool, there's still 3x as many D linemen selected as WRs for most of those years, and 2x as many for the rest. It's silly when 4 teams can have a WR selected but 10-12 can have a lineman, of course it'll seem like there's one in the super bowl every year. By the way, every team with an all-pro wide receiver made the playoffs this year, only 6/8 DL did. 1 of each made the Super Bowl, despite there being more DL spots
That’s only an opinion that AJ Brown, Deebo, and Aiyuk played more of a role than Hargrave Ironic choice to pull a Dlineman getting consecutive teams to the superbowl when the other players you mention were on their aforementioned teams without Hargrave and didn’t make the superbowl This is the deception of skill positions in the nfl. They have the stats and appear to make a difference but the games are won in the trenches
Lmao okay yeah it's not just a coincidence that Hargrave was on two super bowl teams (I thought you said highly paid linemen *won* Super Bowls?? Where's his ring? Also, how will he and Chris Jones both win this year?). Clearly I'd rather have him on my team than JJ. Come on man.
No, I said their is a correlation between the top paid defensive linemen in the final four of the nfl championship games and there is not a correlation between the top paid receivers and teams that play in the Super Bowl.
As we all know, correlation implies causation
I wonder if there are any useful patterns among the teams that made the superbowl with an all-pro receiver. Obviously having a good pass rush is key, since that's the piece(s) on defense that can do the most to impact every play. But you have to have a good offense to make it deep in the playoffs, and I wonder if the teams who made the playoffs without an HOF-trajectory QB were more or less likely to have a highly paid or all-pro receiving option.
They focus on wins vs. superbowl outcomes. However, the study looking at positional spend is interesting. QB and TE spend is most positively correlated with wins. OL and RB are most negatively correlated with spend. The OL point is interesting and makes me wonder how important ecosystems/coaching are to a team's success. https://nycdatascience.com/blog/student-works/nfl-analysis-positional-spend-the-impact-on-performance/
I'm guessing this type of analysis suffers from not having enough data to draw meaningful conclusions. A 6 year period is short enough that you could be biased by whether or not the superstars at each position are currently on rookie deals or making the big bucks. It might be interesting to re-do the analysis using something like positional AV totals rather than spending, and see how it changes the rankings at all. Maybe there's a way to see which positions are worth spending on by identifying which positions are the most important to have stars at, and where stars are the hardest to find on rookie contracts.
I agree this analysis doesn't answer the question of positional spend as much as relative return on salary capital. I've seen studies which look to quantify positional value by looking at holdout of a starter (typically due to injury) and observing the shift in vegas odds or win % as a result. Said studies are performance agnostic and a bit more of a piecewise view of WAR... though, notably, those studies put 3-20x+ as much value on a QB starter as any other position group.
I’ve always really really disliked this kind of discussion. It never has been about where the money goes, it’s about fitting as many top players on a roster as possible. It doesn’t matter if that’s at DT, S, TE, RB, Qb or whatever. You need to pay extremely good football players a lot to stay on your team. You can only win doing that by having other great football players on cheaper deals elsewhere. If you’re paying a WR 30M, a RB 12, a S 12, and a TE 15 or whatever it just means you better have a damn good QB on a cheap deal and a great DE on a cheap deal. The Texans could spend the next 3 years paying a guy like JJ 35M and it would be an ENORMOUS positive for their team because they’re paying CJ, not 50M. They can pay Christian Wilkins 18M for 3 years because they’re not giving Will Anderson 23M a year. Just hoard good players and you will win.
The excess value in your example is entirely a result of CJ. That $35MM APY contract gets Chris Jones, Bosa, Donald, or another top-tier player (and potentially multiple) if it doesn't get JJ. Good NFL GMs will look to optimize both forms of capital which they have available (i.e., draft capital and salary capital). The look that I presented above focuses on salary capital. Other looks focus on the best return on draft capital. Some of the best draft capital looks which I have seen work to equate draft pick value to equivalent salary capital (example below). This is helpful in the context of a team like the Vikings which would have to give up a ton of draft capital (multiple 1st round picks) with the hope of drafting a top QB and saving on salary capital. https://opensourcefootball.com/posts/2023-02-23-nfl-draft-value-chart/
I have not analyzed all of this but there is at least a pretty good correlation between having a good passing game and getting to the superbowl. There is also a good correlation between having good pass defense and getting to the superbowl. This year's 49ers have excellent pass catching targets, maybe best in the league considering depth plus Kittle/McCaffrey. Not sure if any of those WR's are "all pro". However their opponent the Chiefs do not. Ironically the Chiefs did not have a strong passing game on paper this season. But the Chiefs also went to SB with Tyreek Hill who is one of the three best. Rams had Kupp. Bengals had Chase. Bucs had Evans. Pats had Moss the one superbowl but were generally light on WR's in their runs. They did have the best TE ever though. Falcons had Julio. Eagles didn't have much when they won it. I just rattled off the last few teams and from a cursory glance it sure looks like Superbowl teams have had fantastic pass catchers. I think you do have to roll the WR's and TE's together if you are looking at it that way. Having Kelce is just as good for your passing game as an Elite WR. Maybe they weren't "All Pro" that season but yeah most SB teams have really good pass catchers.
and O lineman, both of these positions are critical on every snap.
i get this but dude is justin fucking jefferson give him the bank
Like I’ve said before, there is a certain number where paying JJ could be detrimental to the team. And in that case, seeking a trade for a haul (preferably a historic haul) would be the best route for the team’s long term success.
Sure, there is. However that’s not a real number that people will be throwing around or should be expecting though. I find it silly how we see people acting like its not just gonna be a bump of what the current best WR is getting. We’re not talking 45M. We’re talking 32-36. We know how market resetting contracts raise the bar.
> we’re not talking $45M Are we sure? Every day that goes by, I feel like we are getting closer and closer to that number. If it was $32-$36 or even $38, I feel like a deal is done by now.
Yes we’re sure lol. He won’t be asking for or getting 15 MILLION more than Tyreek Hill. Let’s be serious. Nobody would even listen to that
Hope you’re right.
Yeah. Like 50+ per year over 5 years is probably the point that it's not worth it, whatever he gets won't approach being not-worth-it territory. He's the most valuable non-QB in the league. Contracts go up. Cap space doesn't win you games
I’m sorry but this dude is way too good to be playing the cap game. If I’m the Vikings I am bending over backwards, and then backwards again, shit maybe even three times to lock up JJ long term. This all boils down to him being one of, if not arguably the best football player in the world right now. QB money, WR money, none of that shit matters. He’s a generational talent and if we traded him I think a lot of heads would roll throughout the organization.
They can pay JJ QB money if they draft a rookie and bring in a cheap bridge
They can pay his ass Elon Musk money for all I care. There are very, very few players you bend over backwards in terms of pure talent and skill, clutch ability, and he’s one of them.
But dude, think about what we could get in a trade! Like, multiple first round picks. One of those picks could even turn into an All-Pro WR, or even a top 15 guy! Wouldn't that be so much better!?
>One of those picks could even turn into an All-Pro WR, Enough with this stupid fucking line. He wouldn't need to be JJ to still come out ahead potentially.
Then where do you subtract money from? The QB spot or the defense?
>I’m sorry but this dude is way too good to be playing the cap game. Did the league add a cap exception for your favorite player? Must have missed that Schefter tweet.
I love this dude. He deserves to get the bag. No drama. Just an absolute gem. They need to lock him up long term. 5 year deal!
The Vikings FO has been extremely fair with the extensions they’ve given out already. JJ is most likely asking for way more than they’re comfortable with, otherwise the deal would have been done before last season.
The biggest reason to keep JJ would be if you bring in a rookie QB. We’ve seen how young Qbs can flame out without a supporting cast. Would Bryce be viewed as a total bust as a Viking? Likely no. So to me JJ is almost insurance that the rookie QB you picked has the best chance of being successful.
I really don't want him to go, but I get a bit annoyed when he's just jumping all over the place with his answers. I get he's looking out for himself and his agent probably doesn't want him giving definitive answers, but as a fan it truly is annoying. You can't say it doesn't matter who's throwing to you but also say that whether or not we re-sign Kirk is going to affect things. I'm not mad, I'm more just over this conversation. I'm going to avoid any kind of discourse about him until he's either extended or officially planning to leave. Full attention to the draft for me!
Of course it matters. Wr is a dependent position. You can be as good as anyone but if your QB can’t get you the ball it hurts you. I am sure JJ prefers playing with Kirk or Mullens over Dobbs/ hall. He doesn’t want to talk himself out of a potential deal by implying he’d only want to get throws from Kirk. But an accurate passer obviously makes his job easier
Honestly I think we're lucky he isn't already pissed off with the team about not getting a deal last off season. If I were him, there's no chance I would have played without a new contract. There's really not much more you can ask from him. He's shown up to everything and hasn't bitched about anything.
Been saying he's going to force a trade since early last year. Still think he will sign and demand a trade after another lackluster year, because then you'll see all the "I want to play for a winner" quotes as GB and Lions continue to draft better than us and KOC keeps being Frazier 2.0 and not changing his gameplans.
Trade JJ to Texans for 2 FRPs and a second, 23 and their second rounder this year, plus their first rounder next year. Draft best available QB at 11. If overshooting for the QB at 11 take best available player and draft QB at 23 or in second round. Let Kirk walk. Resign Hunter. Sign Derrick Henry to give rookie QB some run game support.
If they pay JJ QB money, Kwesi will be released within 2 years. Absolutely dumb move. Kwesi should be taking a page out of the ravens book (Lamar) by letting JJ go shop himself out there to see if a GM is foolish enough to give him QB money at the cost of a couple 1sts. We all know NO GM will pay a WR 45m a year unless they know they are on the way out and want to motherfuck the next guy.
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Maybe you should jump ship then