Absolutely brutal press briefing at the White House today. CSPAN transcript below. Just a barrage of:
***SO THERE ARE GROWING CALLS FROM DEMOCRATS, INCLUDING MEMBERS OF CONGRESS, THAT PRESIDENT STEPPED ASIDE IN THE 2024 ELECTION, THAT HE IS NOT CAPABLE OF SERVING ANOTHER FOUR YEARS. WHAT IS HIS RESPONSE?
***AFTER THE DEBATE, DID THE PRESIDENT GET EXAMINED BY A DOCTOR OR GET A NEUROLOGICAL SCAN?
Then the question was: It's a 30 second walk from the briefing room, why doesn't he just come down, say hi, and reassure us?
https://www.c-span.org/video/?536729-1/white-house-daily-briefing
Jim Clyburn has overplayed his hand as kingmaker, I was just watching him on TV pushing Kamala. All he cares about is Kamala being President no matter how it happens.
I think the selection is going to be a wild ride. Likely those conversations are well underway and that’s why Clyburn is speaking up. I am not sure of the exact words he used but he maybe sounded like her being VP still might fly. I think he said that, something like she should be VP or top of the ticket. I suspect they’re burning the midnight oil and will hash this out. It’s already extraordinary, they can’t have a knife fight for the ticket.
The thing about Clyburn is that he only matters in the primary
Trump won SC and Clyburn can’t change that so his posturing doesn’t really mean anything in the general election. That’s why I said he’s overplaying his hand
The rust belt, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania - that’s huge and Whitmer is better positioned for that
Maybe - it’s Georgia, NC, Virginia and I think Virginia might be the only state they can win. I think GA and NC are lost. In the rust belt Whitmer is going to do better than Kamala
I lean towards liking Whitmer and I think Kamala has some stink on her from this current administration- we will see how it plays out. It’s a plot twist that I didn’t see coming a week ago
What? Unless I’m missing a joke here, South Carolina is a solidly Republican state almost certain to go to Trump in November. Do you mean something else by SC?
Anyone who actually bet the odds of Biden being replaced has to be getting somewhat excited right about now
It's no coincidence that dems are now suddenly leakier than the pipe under my kitchen sink I really should get to fixing
A lot of people don't like to admit it but Trump actually has pretty good instincts for media and PR. He's made his entire career out of playing the media game and is very good at it. I'm sure he knows that right now it's best to just sit back, go play golf, and let the Democrats eat themselves alive. Plus I'm sure he's having the time of his life listening to the coverage of this in his golf cart while he toodles around the course.
> I'm sure he knows that right now it's best to just sit back, go play golf, and let the Democrats eat themselves alive.
"Don't interrupt the enemy when they're making mistakes."
This is what I have said about the debate rules THAT THE DEMOCRATS WANTED. They thought having no audience, muted mic, and whatever else would help Biden but it actually basically forced Trump to shut the hell up for once and let Joe dig himself deeper and deeper. If he'd have had a hot mic and had attacked Joe then he would have looked like a YUGE bully attacking a senile old man. Joe wouldn't have looked any different but he would have gotten people's sympathy because Trump would look like he was beating up an old man on the bus. The way it is Trump could just stand back with his arms crossed shaking his head with a "this poor poor man" look on his face while Joe's own words did his dirty work for him. This is elder abuse and his entire family is complicit.
WE BEAT MEDICARE!
Edit: mistakes had been made and I'm on mobile and missed them
Apparently he is waiting until the media dies down to announce his VP because he doesn’t want his spotlight shared (and all the top journalists are out for the holidays and he likes watching them discuss him). This is NYT speculation
He was teasing it before the debate. I think he took advice from Sun Tzu to never interrupt your enemy when they're making a mistake.
He held the VP announcement in his pocket in case it was needed, but after that debate he's better off letting the headlines focus on the Democratic party turning the cannons on each other. Best to let that play out in the press before dropping some news that will put focus on him again.
The DNC basically guaranteed Trump becoming POTUS with how poorly Biden preformed, unless the DNC pivots. And it’s unclear if the Biden administration will be too stubborn to see the writing on the wall or not.
If nothing else changes from now till November, Trump will become POTUS again.
There's a long time to November, but one of the more interesting questions will be has Biden dug too deep of a hole for a replacement to make up. Currently both 538 and 270towin are showing former swing states as almost out of reach, and the leaked poll yesterday is indicating there's been essentially a 10 point swing since 2020 to the point Virginia, New Jersey, Minnesota, and Maine are the only states withing a point.
There's a LOT of ground to make up, and very little time to do it
IMO a Biden candidacy is unsalvageable at this point. Voters are not going forgot how they witnessed Biden having cognitive decline on stage, I don't see him coming back from that.
I think many in the DNC know this, which is why they're publically talking about replacing him.
I disagree just yesterday he made statements about televised war tribunals to execute his enemies, & said that his fake electoral scam was official business. He's trying to get the spotlight back but even with those unhinged statements people are used to his crazy & Biden gossip is more salacious.
Trump’s father had severe dementia. He probably had flashbacks to it watching Biden. I think there might be a shred of humanity in Trump that’s keeping him from attacking too hard on this.
NGL that feels like an overly optimistic spin of the current situation.
The fact is the debate was a huge benefit for Trump’s candidacy, and Biden is rapidly losing favorability and potential voters due to his dismal preformance.
While I think replacing Biden is the best option for the DNC, it will still be a very messy endeavor if they do down that route tbh.
I do actually agree that democrats coming out with a big change, assuming (and that’s a big assumption) they can get folks on board with that person, will be a massive dynamic change to this race and could energize a lot of people.
I feel like they need some fresh faces and electricity. I like Gretchen Whitmer, she governs a purple state and deals with it daily. Nobody brings up Hakeem Jeffries but he's an electric speaker and does a great job, I think Whitmer and Jeffries would be a really strong ticket.
I personally think we need Jeffries in the House for now personally. He hasn't been around long enough to establish his effectiveness and identify a successor.
Democrats love talking about biden's record or whatever, but you know what a record is? Baggage. Biden has *so much baggage*. Like Hillary did. Trump has baggage now too - but do Democrats really want to make that gamble? Against Teflon Don?
I definitely agree. I can’t speak for everyone but I’m tired of the Bidens/Obamas/Clintons. A new name and face is a breath of fresh air. Not being 80+ is obviously a tremendous bonus as well.
> I can’t speak for everyone but I’m tired of the Bidens/Obamas/Clintons. A new name and face is a breath of fresh air.
Remember that at one point Obama was a breath of fresh air. That was also a positive thing that worked well for the Democrats.
I actually like both Whitmer and Jeffries
How cool would it be to vote for someone you want to be President
Seems like its been, oh I dunno, never - since that was possible
I saw someone with the DNC saying that picking a new candidate at the convention would be prime time must see TV and would be great for the Dems to sell their platform to voters. Which I have to agree with. The GOP wouldn't really be able to compete since they have all fallen in line with trump and at this point I can't imagine that anyone is watching the GOP convention to decide if they will vote trump or not.
My mom actually texted me mid-debate saying Biden did slightly better than she expected.
I still don't think Democrats understand how puzzled Republicans are that *anyone* was shocked to the downside by Thursday.
Right, most republicans are utterly unsurprised by the debate, because our media has been telling us that Biden is senile for years now. We’re more surprised that democrats honestly thought that he was perfectly fine and weren’t just pretending this whole time.
I mean, I'm pretty left-wing, and I thought it wasn't great, but that he wasn't *that* bad.
Personally I believe the "Obama behind the scenes" theory at this point. The Admin's been as effective as I'd expect a third-term Obama admin to be (Not great, not terrible, as far as Executive Branches go), not a rudderless one with a zombie at the helm.
Im leaning cautious, i personally think that theres a LONG road to November and the DNC potentially was gambling that voters either forget how bad Biden looked or hope that 5 months allows their excuses to settle in as new-truth.
But…some of those numbers i saw are eye popping.
2020 swing states that broke for Biden
Georgia - 10.1% for Trump
Arizona - 9.7% for Trump
Nevada - 8.8% for Trump
Pennsylvania -7.3% for Trump
Michigan - 6.9% for Trump
Wisconsin 4.2% for Trump
The combination of 4 years of Trump being out of the spotlight (and not having a daily pulpit to piss people off in Twitter), inflation, tone-deaf Democratic policies like student debt forgiveness, and the latest Biden appearance have been brutal.
These are 10 point swings. Fucking Minnesota isnt a given.
Now, again, 5 months is a LONG time. But…how do you counter this when the guy literally cannot make public appearances?
Edit to add - per 538s projections (which look an awful lot like 1 am on election eve 2020, where Trump was clinging to razor thin margins in WI, MI, AZ, NV, and NH) Trump is at 251 safe/likely EC votes. He needs to lock up Pennsylvania (and the polling seems to suggest hes heading there) to all but secure 270. Now, MAYBE Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin all break for Biden again (and he holds onto what i see as slim leads in New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia), but that seems like a pretty tall order ffor an unpopular incumbent who hasnt really inspired anyone and cant campaign at this point. Part of me thinks its more likely Trump wins New Jersey than Biden wins the EC. Theres a solid chance Trump even wins the popular vote (and the deliciously ironic but almost 0 chance Trump wins the popular vote while Biden eeks out an EC win due to depressed turnout in democrat strongholds of New York, California, and Illinois)
I would agree with you, but we have no idea how accurate any of this polling information is going to turn out, and theres a long road to November, so in my own mind, the likes of Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are in the “likely Red” category. I think 538 is being a bit conservative which is inflating Bidens probable electoral college results (if the election were held today^tm). North Carolina similarly has no shot of voting Biden, and they only have its as Leaning Red.
The true deciding factor in the margin here will be just how many Democrats hold their nose and vote Biden versus just staying home. If Virginia is in play (and my personal view on the ground here is that its gotten a lot closer in the last year) that impacts Senator Kaine (polling about 5 points above Cao from what ive seen). Montana and West Virginia are already enough to flip the Senate (and likely will), so Republicans are playing with house money and can spend money (much to Trumps chagrin) downballot or to demotivate Democrat turnout.
Just a general sense, but I also see Nevada going for Trump. The Biden is senile talk has been strong whenever I’ve been on extended work trips down there.
Viable in terms of "Currently polls better than Trump"? No one.
Viable in terms of "Probably increases D-likelihood-of-victory if they get to campaign for four months, compared to four more months of Biden floundering?" Whitmer, Shapiro, Pritzker, Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Newsom, Beshear.
The only one I saw on 538 was Michelle Obama (+11% over Trump) and 1) thats only because shes a complete blank slate and 2) she absolutely is not doing it.
Everyone else ranged from -2% to -10% head to head against Trump.
From what I have seen/heard/gathered, a Democrat would need to be +3 or so in the popular vote to win. Trailing Trump isnt ideal.
That's the ipsos reuters poll.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/one-three-democrats-think-biden-should-quit-race-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-07-02/
> "That Beshear, a relative unknown, trailed Trump by only a narrow margin in the Reuters/Ipsos poll - 36% to 40% - illustrated how deeply Democrats oppose Trump."
Those Democrats polled have no recognition whatsoever except the one that smashed Trump being Michelle Obama. But it also goes to show how badly Biden is doing too. If a random nobody can poll that close to Trump, imagine them with branding and people actually knowing who they are. If people really cared about age of Biden, then it shouldn't even be close.
I can see that, but in my eyes Michelle Obama is a “generic democrat”. “Heres what a Democrat with no real political baggage or consequential policy positions polls at”.
Once they get name recognition, they also have firmer positions and can alienate voters for various reasons.
Theres also the black factor. My guess is a sizeable portion of Obamas support is black voters who said “I aint voting for no booty-geg” and then said “I lo-ooove Obama”.
I just hope this triggers a new era of Democratic accountability.
The only reason Republicans have gained so much ground is because of how easy Democrats have made it for them. The policies are practically universally unpopular with the american people, but they run virtually unchallenged.
Like right now it shouldn't even be a discussion with Biden. He's not even a contender anymore for president. Trump is running unopposed and that shouldn't be acceptable.
Thing is, I bet there isn’t even that much more leaking than usual going on; there’s just sooo much more out there that could be leaked: sooo many Dem electeds and higher ups texting all their media and media adjacent contacts with concerns they have and are hearing.
The betting odds now show Biden and Harris at the same odds of winning - $6.50 for both currently.
Trump is $1.50. Newsom in 4th with $11.00
EDIT: Actually the odds are moving so much that Harris is now the favorite over Biden.
I think the democrats have to take Kamala and Pete off the table in any replacement talks. It’s clear this was an open secret in the WH and they’re culpable in this gaslighting. Being VP and a cabinet member respecively, it’s gonna be pretty hard to prove deniability to the American public..
I think the ticket has to come from outisde of DC (would help neuter the “drain the swamp” narrative of trump if Dems do it themselves) Popular governors should be at the top of the short list.
> prove deniability to the American public that they didn’t know
I still don't get this talking point, at all.
I saw the debate and I thought to myself: Biden did well, just as usual. This is Biden, very old and losing it. He has been like this since 2020, but getting worse over time. I am genuinely surprised there are so many people shocked by Biden's appearance, this is Biden folks.....
He kept stumbling on stairs, getting lost in the garden, freezing etc. for years. But whenever it was reported by Fox and others on the right, it was ignored or mocked on the left.
You should be shocked that the media and news you followed hid this from you, not that there is a cabal hiding Biden...
You need sources to print if you’re reputable. The only thing that could really be surpressed big time is the opinion column.
There was signs and there have been plenty of articles over the years, that’s why Thursday hit like an asteroid, people had strongly suspected he was diminished. 76.% of Dems thought he was too old to run last year, so it wasn’t a shock to most people and that’s why you’re seeing so many calls to step down
> He kept stumbling on stairs
Well to be fair the stairs weren't a problem at the debate, he just happened to have Jill leading him down like I do my grandfather whose in a nursing home.
I’ve seen his name tossed around a fair amount. Not a front runner by any means but prob makes a list of top 10, but for reasons listed earlier, he shouldn’t be considered
People who forget he lost in the 2020 primary and shifted his positions around to whatever polled better in the moment. The dude has done a terrible job at the DoT and would do a terrible job as president.
Per 538, Trump is at 251 safe/likely EC votes (and i think theyre being a bit *too* conservative, with North Carolina as “leans red”, when theres no chance in hell Biden wins it).
Pennsylvania swinging back all but locks up the election, after that its just a dick measuring contest over Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire, Virginia (and Biden could really only afford to lose 1 of those even with a win in Pennsylvania). It feels an awful lot like a mirror of 2020, where Trump was defending razor thin margins covering a lot of ground, and needed everything to land perfectly. Once one domino falls, i suspect the rest will and this could easily be a blowout.
Itll either be a very narrow 280 or so EC win for Biden, or (MUCH more likely) 320+ for Trump and a probable popular vote win.
Of course not. 70 percent or more don't want Trump OR Biden. The race to the bottom has gotten to "Convicted felon and narcissist" versus "Confused Octogenarian who can't recite a 15 second bit on what his job during a debate"
That's because 70% of people don't know the other Candidates. Dig into the polling and look at the actual details. It's almost impossible to poll a hypothetical when you don't know the other options. It's way more damning that Biden an incumbent polls the same as somebody with 0 name recognition. But if he was replaced they would have potential upside because they will be talked about from now until the election with one of the craziest races we would see. Biden only has downside. Everything was baked in. And he's still going down further. That's quite the accomplishment. At this point it's a guaranteed loss. We should at least have some fun with the risk.
For example Michelle Obama. 11 points over Trump. That's what a normal candidate with name recognition would yield. And they'd get that name recognition from having one of the most talked about conventions in the last 60 years, maybe more. It's a show worth watching and everybody would be tuned in. Or keep Biden and people don't show up. Trump supporters in every ear in the swing States that are needed.
I honestly think a lot of people outside the dem/GOP field don’t know who any of these people are. About 60-70% of the country is really into politics and those people have already decided long ago who they’re voting for. The remaining 40-30% go back and forth and many aren’t political junkies like many of us are, and those the people who will swing the vote. Many of those voters probably dont know much about Newsom or Whitmer or any of these candidates I’d they know anything about them at all
> It's over. Americans want Trump and his entire agenda.
I lean to the right, and I know plenty of Republicans. Nobody is excited about Trump.
This election is a referendum on Biden/Harris and the last four years.
It's that simple.
There are some people excited for Trump but the vast majority like you said are more voting against Biden/Harris than they are voting for Trump.
I think the thing that was really swinging people to Trump before the debate was that everything has gotten way more expensive and people have less $ in their pocket and illegal immigration.
Biden in a race that *it felt* like Trump had a slight edge in just torpedoed himself. That being said this is all on the Democratic Party for running Joe again when he’s definitely lost a large amount of his cognitive abilities. My family has a history of dementia and Alzheimer’s and watching him over the last year has brought a lot of those same memories up. I just don’t understand how they thought this was a good ideaz
Starter: A leaked memo published by three news site Puck shows that following the disastrous debate last week Biden’s favorability numbers plummeted to the “the largest single-week drop” in nearly three years.
The memo goes on to detail how according to research from a leading democratic action committee that has funded over $100 million to Biden the steep drop is largely a byproduct of the rapidly increasing tension surrounding Biden’s mental acuity and the sharp contrast in views between Democrats on how to proceed forward.
The memo lists an extensive number of carefully selected Democrats - current VP Harris, Buttigeg, Whitmer and Newsom - who now as polling shows technically fare better against Trump than Biden.
Attachment of the memo: https://puck.news/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/SUNDAY_Post-Debate_Landscape_2024_06_30__1_-1.pdf
As you can see on pages 10 and 11, which adjust the other candidates based on metrics to account for name recognition that would come with a national candidacy, everyone blows Biden out of the water.
——-
Opinion: I’m rooting for a Whitmer/Buttigeg ticket! I desperately hope Harris is permenantly dropped even as VP but I do realize the shitstorm that’s undoubtedly bound to cause
I am skeptical. Those other people haven't been under the microscope as a presidential candidate. Newsom is a nonstarter in my opinion due to his rank covid hypocrisy.
Agreed. It's absolutely wild to me that Newsom seems to be the main person who would replace Biden. I feel like we would be better off just keeping Biden if he's the alternative.
Kamala was such a horrendous pick as VP. Pure pandering, with no redeeming qualities as a politician, so yea - I agree that if Dems decide to move on, then they need to move on from Kamala as well.
Whitmer/Buttigeg seems like the safest pick. Newsom would absolutely crush Trump in a debate, but the California baggage might be too great to overcome for voters.
Yeah Newsome would be a poison pill for any of the states like WI, MI, and Pennsylvania. Probably even NV and AZ voters probably would pass on a ticket that includes Newsome.
I'm not as sure that's the right ticket. Dropping Kamala and picking up Buttigeg for VP seems like it would be absolute death with the black community, especially considering more conservative black opinions on homosexuality.
Even if you keep Kamala you can probably take it off the map. Ads featuring her actual deeds in California means the people she needs in Atlanta don't turn out. The same thing that nuked her primary run in 2020 will nuke any chance she has of motivating enough black voters to save Georgia.
I have a friend who saw her live. My friend described Kamala, and said that she was basically pumping up the crowd like a bizarro version of Arsenio Hall. Kamala used to date talk show host Montell Williams, and she seems to have developed a really bizarre/pandering/inauthentic style.
It's difficult to imagine how she could ever win; the only hope would be to pick an incredibly strong VP candidate and attempt to get the message across to voters that the VP would be playing a major role in the presidency.
Naturally, Kamala can't go anywhere, because all of fundraising money is in the Biden/Harris camp.
If anyone but Biden and Harris are on the ticket, all of that money is G-O-N-E. The new candidate would have to fundraise from scratch.
Whitmer/Warnock? I mean, if they want to go for maximum ~~pandering~~ electability. Got your midwest covered, your Georgia covered, your women voters, Black voters...
Well, [according to Pew](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voter-turnout-2018-2022/), black voters still aren’t nearly as reliable as white voters. Even non-college educated white voters—who command the largest share of the electorate—turn out at a higher rate than black voters, yet Democrats have spent the last decade or so pandering *against* them.
> Newsom would absolutely crush Trump in a debate, but the California baggage might be too great to overcome for voters.
Adam Carolla debated Gavin Newsom last Friday.
Newsom lost.
When the host of "The Man Show" can run rings around someone, that's *not a good sign.*
https://youtu.be/8OqSwlmGs_A?t=219
Uhh what? VP choices are ALWAYS about pandering. EVERY TIME. Trump chose Pence for the evangelical conservative vote. Obama chose Biden for the older white moderates. Like come on.
The Democrats shunning the black, female incumbent VP would guarantee an election loss.
You get Biden. If not him, you get Harris, and she has a snowball's chance in hell of winning a general election.
No, it wouldn't. The main voting blocks that are liable to really care about that are super liberal upper middle to upper class women and woke college kids, and they're on so many levels of TDS that they'll vote against Trump anyways. Heck, getting a leader that wasn't at all involved with the Israel/Palestine issue might help with the latter group.
Any evidence that they like Kamala? Not like she was polling well in South Carolina in during the 2020 primaries
I feel like we are playing the losing identity politics game again that the groups we think we are appealing to don’t want to be pandered to in this way.
Absolutely, but they're not nearly as invested in identity politics. You do have to make sure to pick a candidate that black voters in general like since they're a very important voting block, but black women specifically aren't liable to throw a fit over Kamala Harris being slighted so long as you give them a candidate they think will do right by them and their communities.
There's no need for that to be the narrative though. They got a whole party apparatus and a number of friendly mainstream media outlets to help shape a different one. Again, so long as the candidate is someone they like and think will make their lives better I don't think they'll care.
More like “when appealing to racist voters might help avoid catastrophe, it may be good to go white”. I can see some black voters getting onboard with a pragmatic solution like that. Just because they’re black doesn’t mean they’re uncompromising idealists.
Which means this opens up a huge opportunity to fix a major issue that's been screwing the Democrats for a while now. The progressive wing has been screwing the Democrats pretty hard and this year the Democrats have got a guaranteed loss basically no matter what they do. So nominate Kamala, lose anyway, and then use that as justification to blame the progressives for the loss and justify pushing them out of the party.
From what I see most blacks see that Kamala is simply a choice to pander to them. Here in Chicago many African Americans are upset with amount of public money being direct towards migrants which is valid considering many lower-income communities fight tooth and nail for half that amount of funding.
Trump on the other hand is getting celebrated by these communities.
It’s like all of you forget that the only reason Biden won the nomination is because he promised to pick a black woman as his VP. Unless you get her to endorse them, it’s going to be a shitstorm.
He'll go on a highly edited and scripted media tour in the next few weeks to shore up his numbers. And I'd be shocked if there is another live debate. Unless they replace him.
> Trump should suggest another debate where his mic is muted the entire time.
>
> Literally just stand there and make faces for 90 minutes.
Picture Trump just going up there and playing with his phone for his allotted time, saying literally nothing. He could really rub it in by playing Candy Crush the whole time.
Current electoral map according to their polling:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/dk2Qp
Talk about a landslide. It's kind of crazy that Biden's age/fumbles seem to be significantly more important to voters than Trump's dishonesty and "problematic" actions/statements.
At the end of the day, data points like this will be what forces change. Not reality. Power > people, and we're seeing that right now (every day that Biden is still President)
The other part there is quietly even the census screws Democrats a bit
Democrat strongholds New York, California, and Illinois each lost an electoral vote.
The problem is most people also heard Joe Biden lie, like he's done for years. It's expected of politicians at this point. He's just also incapable of performing the job on top of that. Which is kind of a deal breaker.
In a time of increasing global tensions, conflicts, and wars I don’t think it’s crazy that people may want a dishonest and “problematic” candidate over one that can’t do the job at all.
edit - I should add that this is if the election were held today and our choice, realistically, is between Biden and Trump. A lot can happen before the election though.
I think one thing to consider is this. At worst, voting for Trump leads to a dictatorship in America (I don't personally believe Trump has any actual desire for this but it's a worry some people have), on the other hand, at worst, Biden leads to a dictatorship of *another* country in America by fumbling the ball.
I think it's that kind of thing that makes Biden look worse to some people.
American voters have cared about image more than anything else for decades now. If nothing else, Trump appeared far more energetic and capable of actually executing the duties of the office than Biden did, and I'm not sure Biden can recover from that unless he does a second debate and absolutely crushes it.
I think part of the issue is, all politicians are dishonest. You can’t really use that as a reason to not vote for one, they all lie through their teeth and say whatever is needed in the moment.
So really it comes down to Trumps actions which depending on the voter are either good or bad.
> I think part of the issue is, all politicians are dishonest.
Not only that but what's been revealed since Thursday shows that one party is more dishonest than the other and it's not the one who has been screaming about the opposition being dishonest. People are smart enough to know that the only way Biden could decline to where he was Thursday without it being public knowledge was if a whole lot of people who had spent a whole lot of time screaming about honesty were actually being very dishonest. There is a legitimate argument now to say that the Democratic Party is even more dishonest than Trump and not by a small amount.
Practically the only thing Biden's camp has now is calling Trump literal Hitler, claiming he's going to be dictator for life and start building the concentration camps, but only the Democrat true believers are going to buy that.
In 2020 Biden claimed he was going to bring ethics and normalcy to the office again. Now that we see how not true that is, he doesn't have much to stand on.
> Practically the only thing Biden's camp has now is calling Trump literal Hitler, claiming he's going to be dictator for life and start building the concentration camps, but only the Democrat true believers are going to buy that.
>
>
Post-debate, [Maine Democratic Congressman explicitly denying that Trump's reelection will threaten American democracy](https://www.bangordailynews.com/2024/07/02/opinion/opinion-contributor/jared-golden-donald-trump-going-to-win-election-democracy-be-just-fine/)
Agree. Then the fact check that rolled out after and essentially crucified Biden. They really don’t have any moral ground anymore to call Trump / GOP liars. It’s ironic the way things are unfolding.
Because the same people and sources telling us Trump is lying about XYZ, and telling us he's said or done problematic things, are the same people who have just been revealed to be lying to us for years about Biden. You have that one reporter saying Biden was sharper than he was at the time, even when many people already saw Bidens decline. The same folks that mockingly said "I don't care about Hunter I'm not voting for him" are now finding out that apparently Hunter has been in high level meetings with Joe and giving advice for a while. So when those people are shown to not be trustworthy, combined with media fact checks that show some oft repeated claims about Trump are not true (the Very Fine People comment comes to mind), and now, you've got a lot of folks wondering if all the bad stuff they heard wasn't either made up or at least exaggerated.
That is why soke folks are fine with Trump. And keep in mind, despite it constantly being explained, Trump still claims were giving $60B a pop to Ukraine. It's been explained numerous times that's largely the price tag of the weapons that were on their way to be decommissioned. But still people think we're hanging Zelensky briefcase full of cash. There's no ability to parse through what's true and what isn't. Heck, when Biden had a chance to say all that to Trump during the debate, instead we got...I don't know. I couldn't understand Biden.
So you have a combination of people getting lied to and not believing anything these sources say, and low levels of understanding for things like Ukraine (and shortsightedness on why it's important they survive).
Well there are about 100 articles a day posted about Bidens age. Similarly to how Genocide Joe was coined before Israel did anything in response to Gaza.
These opposing team is just simply better about weaponizing Bidens weaknesses than his teams is to Trump.
While the Republicans pounce argument is typically highly effective, it just isn’t going to be sufficient this time.
This is a dire case for Biden. Too many voters witnessed the debate.
So, what if the Democrats just decided to make Biden (and maybe some select cabinet members) a big scapegoat, and just pin everything unpopular about this administration on them, before rolling out a new candidate? Maybe even have some major figures in the party claim that they were also misled, gaslit, etc. and just try to really wipe the slate; all while doing some backroom horse trading to get someone ,who's actually reasonably popular, to accept being the new nominee (as well as the risks to their career that come with it) for this election, and in exchange promising them a major position in one of the less visible parts of the party's leadership in the event that they lose. Would an idea like that have any viability?
Democrats should replace him. I agree that Biden seems most likely to have already lost the election, so don't run him. Run someone else. Check whether he's actually declined nearly as much as the debate made it look first, sure, and if it turns out he has then run someone else. What's the point in running a candidate you know is almost certain to lose? Take the risk, run someone else, worst case scenario the end result will be the same as running Biden.
> Check whether he's actually declined nearly as much as the debate made it look first, sure, and if it turns out he has then run someone else.
Not an option. He won't agree to it. They can't force him to do anything against his will.
For years, Biden has been criticized for leveraging his position to benefit his family. The media ran interference for him; told everyone that it wasn't true.
If it *wasn't* true, he would have agreed to drop out on Sunday.
He didn't. And he won't.
if democracy is truly on the line, then why would you vote for someone that is clearly not the one making the decisions?
isn't that exactly what happens right before authoritarian regimes take over?
Biden’s election did coordinate to keep their candidate’s health a secret. With tons of media parroting the obvious lie. What else are they capable of?
Even if that were true, and I don't think it is, it would still be better, and necessary as someone supportive of democracy, not to vote for the authoritarian candidate.
The Senate is extremely difficult to hold without the tiebreaking vote for Democrats.
I don't know that I put too much stock in public statements so far. They are in a difficult situation, where Democrats don't want to damage the ticket more if he isn't dropping out. I wouldn't be surprised if privately they are arguing for him to drop out.
Age as a concern is immutable. Short of throwing out a video of him benching 225 for 10 reps, no amount of dog-and-pony shows is going to change the perception that Biden is old and frail. People want a leader they feel is competent, and Biden just *looks* bad. There's no fixing that.
If the Democrats want a shot to win, they need to tell Jill and Hunter to step aside, put Kamala up for the nomination, and find someone who exudes order and confidence as a VP. Save your Whitmers, Shapiros, and the rest of your young bench for a future election.
Kamala, for all of her baggage, will have the tremendous benefit of being seen as younger than Biden, and more normal than Trump.
I mean, a media tour, town halls, another debate where he does well, there are lots of things he could do. But those require being able to do them, and I suspect we wouldn't be in the situation we're in in the first place if he were.
Kamala is a known quality, and Americans want her even less than they want Biden. The one wrong replacement the Dems could possibly pick is Kamala. The only people who want her in are the people playing identity politics.
It’d actually be hilarious if the Democrats do grow a spine and replace Biden, only to replace him with Kamala. The election would be a massive landslide.
If Biden does drop out, he'll have a chance to do a bunch of controversial shit just before leaving office after the election is over. He's so old, even if it was illegal, what are they going to do? Put him in jail for a few years before he dies? He'll probably just die during the trial. Come to think of it, Trump's going to have the same opportunity at the end of his term when he's the same age.
It’ll all be immune from prosecution because it’s an official act or presumed to be legal and no way to prove it’s not since you can’t take into account motive.
Absolutely brutal press briefing at the White House today. CSPAN transcript below. Just a barrage of: ***SO THERE ARE GROWING CALLS FROM DEMOCRATS, INCLUDING MEMBERS OF CONGRESS, THAT PRESIDENT STEPPED ASIDE IN THE 2024 ELECTION, THAT HE IS NOT CAPABLE OF SERVING ANOTHER FOUR YEARS. WHAT IS HIS RESPONSE? ***AFTER THE DEBATE, DID THE PRESIDENT GET EXAMINED BY A DOCTOR OR GET A NEUROLOGICAL SCAN? Then the question was: It's a 30 second walk from the briefing room, why doesn't he just come down, say hi, and reassure us? https://www.c-span.org/video/?536729-1/white-house-daily-briefing
Jim Clyburn has overplayed his hand as kingmaker, I was just watching him on TV pushing Kamala. All he cares about is Kamala being President no matter how it happens.
He can still make SC not go for the Dems. I believe he has that power.
I think the selection is going to be a wild ride. Likely those conversations are well underway and that’s why Clyburn is speaking up. I am not sure of the exact words he used but he maybe sounded like her being VP still might fly. I think he said that, something like she should be VP or top of the ticket. I suspect they’re burning the midnight oil and will hash this out. It’s already extraordinary, they can’t have a knife fight for the ticket.
They can have a knife fight if the Biden family will not concede. We may look back and be reminded of another convention in Chicago.
The thing about Clyburn is that he only matters in the primary Trump won SC and Clyburn can’t change that so his posturing doesn’t really mean anything in the general election. That’s why I said he’s overplaying his hand The rust belt, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania - that’s huge and Whitmer is better positioned for that
If the Black Caucus comes out swinging, and they could, there will be hell to pay.
Maybe - it’s Georgia, NC, Virginia and I think Virginia might be the only state they can win. I think GA and NC are lost. In the rust belt Whitmer is going to do better than Kamala I lean towards liking Whitmer and I think Kamala has some stink on her from this current administration- we will see how it plays out. It’s a plot twist that I didn’t see coming a week ago
This plus Clyburn’s protégé is head of the DNC.
What? Unless I’m missing a joke here, South Carolina is a solidly Republican state almost certain to go to Trump in November. Do you mean something else by SC?
SC hasn’t voted Democrat since 1976. It’s not going for the Dems no matter what Clyburn does.
Anyone who actually bet the odds of Biden being replaced has to be getting somewhat excited right about now It's no coincidence that dems are now suddenly leakier than the pipe under my kitchen sink I really should get to fixing
Honestly all this discussion of replacing Biden has reenergized me. I’m literally gonna be so disappointed if he remains the candidate.
I know right? It has added some intrigue to this whole deal.
[удалено]
Trump has been surprisingly quiet last 5 days
A lot of people don't like to admit it but Trump actually has pretty good instincts for media and PR. He's made his entire career out of playing the media game and is very good at it. I'm sure he knows that right now it's best to just sit back, go play golf, and let the Democrats eat themselves alive. Plus I'm sure he's having the time of his life listening to the coverage of this in his golf cart while he toodles around the course.
> I'm sure he knows that right now it's best to just sit back, go play golf, and let the Democrats eat themselves alive. "Don't interrupt the enemy when they're making mistakes."
- from a book that was written while Joe Biden was already a grown man
Ironic that all he had to do in 2020 to win was just Shut. Up. For one fucking moment. And let people breath.
This is what I have said about the debate rules THAT THE DEMOCRATS WANTED. They thought having no audience, muted mic, and whatever else would help Biden but it actually basically forced Trump to shut the hell up for once and let Joe dig himself deeper and deeper. If he'd have had a hot mic and had attacked Joe then he would have looked like a YUGE bully attacking a senile old man. Joe wouldn't have looked any different but he would have gotten people's sympathy because Trump would look like he was beating up an old man on the bus. The way it is Trump could just stand back with his arms crossed shaking his head with a "this poor poor man" look on his face while Joe's own words did his dirty work for him. This is elder abuse and his entire family is complicit. WE BEAT MEDICARE! Edit: mistakes had been made and I'm on mobile and missed them
Breathe
Apparently he is waiting until the media dies down to announce his VP because he doesn’t want his spotlight shared (and all the top journalists are out for the holidays and he likes watching them discuss him). This is NYT speculation
He was teasing it before the debate. I think he took advice from Sun Tzu to never interrupt your enemy when they're making a mistake. He held the VP announcement in his pocket in case it was needed, but after that debate he's better off letting the headlines focus on the Democratic party turning the cannons on each other. Best to let that play out in the press before dropping some news that will put focus on him again.
if he's told anyone then it will probably leak anyway, won't it?
The DNC basically guaranteed Trump becoming POTUS with how poorly Biden preformed, unless the DNC pivots. And it’s unclear if the Biden administration will be too stubborn to see the writing on the wall or not. If nothing else changes from now till November, Trump will become POTUS again.
There's a long time to November, but one of the more interesting questions will be has Biden dug too deep of a hole for a replacement to make up. Currently both 538 and 270towin are showing former swing states as almost out of reach, and the leaked poll yesterday is indicating there's been essentially a 10 point swing since 2020 to the point Virginia, New Jersey, Minnesota, and Maine are the only states withing a point. There's a LOT of ground to make up, and very little time to do it
IMO a Biden candidacy is unsalvageable at this point. Voters are not going forgot how they witnessed Biden having cognitive decline on stage, I don't see him coming back from that. I think many in the DNC know this, which is why they're publically talking about replacing him.
I disagree just yesterday he made statements about televised war tribunals to execute his enemies, & said that his fake electoral scam was official business. He's trying to get the spotlight back but even with those unhinged statements people are used to his crazy & Biden gossip is more salacious.
> Trump has been surprisingly quiet last 5 days "Never interrupt your opponent while he is making a mistake." - Sun Tzu
Trump’s father had severe dementia. He probably had flashbacks to it watching Biden. I think there might be a shred of humanity in Trump that’s keeping him from attacking too hard on this.
I've never been on Truth Social, but there was a screen cap floating on social media that was so sympathetic to Biden, I thought it was fake.
I agree. I think Trump is listening to competent advisors finally
NGL that feels like an overly optimistic spin of the current situation. The fact is the debate was a huge benefit for Trump’s candidacy, and Biden is rapidly losing favorability and potential voters due to his dismal preformance. While I think replacing Biden is the best option for the DNC, it will still be a very messy endeavor if they do down that route tbh.
The largest political dumpster fire of at least a couple generations is hard to turn away from.
Doesn’t the incentive work the other way this time? Trump should want everyone to forget who he is and focus on how flawed his opponent is.
Don’t worry, if there is one thing democrats are good at, it’s disappointment
I do actually agree that democrats coming out with a big change, assuming (and that’s a big assumption) they can get folks on board with that person, will be a massive dynamic change to this race and could energize a lot of people.
I feel like they need some fresh faces and electricity. I like Gretchen Whitmer, she governs a purple state and deals with it daily. Nobody brings up Hakeem Jeffries but he's an electric speaker and does a great job, I think Whitmer and Jeffries would be a really strong ticket.
I personally think we need Jeffries in the House for now personally. He hasn't been around long enough to establish his effectiveness and identify a successor.
Democrats love talking about biden's record or whatever, but you know what a record is? Baggage. Biden has *so much baggage*. Like Hillary did. Trump has baggage now too - but do Democrats really want to make that gamble? Against Teflon Don?
I definitely agree. I can’t speak for everyone but I’m tired of the Bidens/Obamas/Clintons. A new name and face is a breath of fresh air. Not being 80+ is obviously a tremendous bonus as well.
> I can’t speak for everyone but I’m tired of the Bidens/Obamas/Clintons. A new name and face is a breath of fresh air. Remember that at one point Obama was a breath of fresh air. That was also a positive thing that worked well for the Democrats.
I actually like both Whitmer and Jeffries How cool would it be to vote for someone you want to be President Seems like its been, oh I dunno, never - since that was possible
he's not getting replaced. disappointment guaranteed.
DNC are such terrible strategists, I swear the only way they ever win is due to GOP incompetence.
I saw someone with the DNC saying that picking a new candidate at the convention would be prime time must see TV and would be great for the Dems to sell their platform to voters. Which I have to agree with. The GOP wouldn't really be able to compete since they have all fallen in line with trump and at this point I can't imagine that anyone is watching the GOP convention to decide if they will vote trump or not.
At this point I’d take your plumber as a replacement.
[удалено]
My mom actually texted me mid-debate saying Biden did slightly better than she expected. I still don't think Democrats understand how puzzled Republicans are that *anyone* was shocked to the downside by Thursday.
It's literally Biden's worst public event in his entire career.
worst public event in his entire career so far
Right, most republicans are utterly unsurprised by the debate, because our media has been telling us that Biden is senile for years now. We’re more surprised that democrats honestly thought that he was perfectly fine and weren’t just pretending this whole time.
I mean, I'm pretty left-wing, and I thought it wasn't great, but that he wasn't *that* bad. Personally I believe the "Obama behind the scenes" theory at this point. The Admin's been as effective as I'd expect a third-term Obama admin to be (Not great, not terrible, as far as Executive Branches go), not a rudderless one with a zombie at the helm.
Don’t want be a trumpet but I didn’t exactly vote for a puppet
There's A LOT of Dems who refused to think that Biden was struggling mentally ....so bizarre
I mean, everybody thinks that. And they are absolutely right.
I am so writing in "Iceraptor17's plumber".
I also would vote for Joe the plumber
Unfortunately Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher died last year
Im leaning cautious, i personally think that theres a LONG road to November and the DNC potentially was gambling that voters either forget how bad Biden looked or hope that 5 months allows their excuses to settle in as new-truth. But…some of those numbers i saw are eye popping. 2020 swing states that broke for Biden Georgia - 10.1% for Trump Arizona - 9.7% for Trump Nevada - 8.8% for Trump Pennsylvania -7.3% for Trump Michigan - 6.9% for Trump Wisconsin 4.2% for Trump The combination of 4 years of Trump being out of the spotlight (and not having a daily pulpit to piss people off in Twitter), inflation, tone-deaf Democratic policies like student debt forgiveness, and the latest Biden appearance have been brutal. These are 10 point swings. Fucking Minnesota isnt a given. Now, again, 5 months is a LONG time. But…how do you counter this when the guy literally cannot make public appearances? Edit to add - per 538s projections (which look an awful lot like 1 am on election eve 2020, where Trump was clinging to razor thin margins in WI, MI, AZ, NV, and NH) Trump is at 251 safe/likely EC votes. He needs to lock up Pennsylvania (and the polling seems to suggest hes heading there) to all but secure 270. Now, MAYBE Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin all break for Biden again (and he holds onto what i see as slim leads in New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia), but that seems like a pretty tall order ffor an unpopular incumbent who hasnt really inspired anyone and cant campaign at this point. Part of me thinks its more likely Trump wins New Jersey than Biden wins the EC. Theres a solid chance Trump even wins the popular vote (and the deliciously ironic but almost 0 chance Trump wins the popular vote while Biden eeks out an EC win due to depressed turnout in democrat strongholds of New York, California, and Illinois)
I'm in Nevada and there's no way it's going Blue this time.
I would agree with you, but we have no idea how accurate any of this polling information is going to turn out, and theres a long road to November, so in my own mind, the likes of Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are in the “likely Red” category. I think 538 is being a bit conservative which is inflating Bidens probable electoral college results (if the election were held today^tm). North Carolina similarly has no shot of voting Biden, and they only have its as Leaning Red. The true deciding factor in the margin here will be just how many Democrats hold their nose and vote Biden versus just staying home. If Virginia is in play (and my personal view on the ground here is that its gotten a lot closer in the last year) that impacts Senator Kaine (polling about 5 points above Cao from what ive seen). Montana and West Virginia are already enough to flip the Senate (and likely will), so Republicans are playing with house money and can spend money (much to Trumps chagrin) downballot or to demotivate Democrat turnout.
Just a general sense, but I also see Nevada going for Trump. The Biden is senile talk has been strong whenever I’ve been on extended work trips down there.
Who is even a viable candidate if we’re taking this seriously?
Viable in terms of "Currently polls better than Trump"? No one. Viable in terms of "Probably increases D-likelihood-of-victory if they get to campaign for four months, compared to four more months of Biden floundering?" Whitmer, Shapiro, Pritzker, Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Newsom, Beshear.
The only one I saw on 538 was Michelle Obama (+11% over Trump) and 1) thats only because shes a complete blank slate and 2) she absolutely is not doing it. Everyone else ranged from -2% to -10% head to head against Trump. From what I have seen/heard/gathered, a Democrat would need to be +3 or so in the popular vote to win. Trailing Trump isnt ideal.
That's the ipsos reuters poll. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/one-three-democrats-think-biden-should-quit-race-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-07-02/ > "That Beshear, a relative unknown, trailed Trump by only a narrow margin in the Reuters/Ipsos poll - 36% to 40% - illustrated how deeply Democrats oppose Trump." Those Democrats polled have no recognition whatsoever except the one that smashed Trump being Michelle Obama. But it also goes to show how badly Biden is doing too. If a random nobody can poll that close to Trump, imagine them with branding and people actually knowing who they are. If people really cared about age of Biden, then it shouldn't even be close.
I can see that, but in my eyes Michelle Obama is a “generic democrat”. “Heres what a Democrat with no real political baggage or consequential policy positions polls at”. Once they get name recognition, they also have firmer positions and can alienate voters for various reasons. Theres also the black factor. My guess is a sizeable portion of Obamas support is black voters who said “I aint voting for no booty-geg” and then said “I lo-ooove Obama”.
I just hope this triggers a new era of Democratic accountability. The only reason Republicans have gained so much ground is because of how easy Democrats have made it for them. The policies are practically universally unpopular with the american people, but they run virtually unchallenged. Like right now it shouldn't even be a discussion with Biden. He's not even a contender anymore for president. Trump is running unopposed and that shouldn't be acceptable.
Thing is, I bet there isn’t even that much more leaking than usual going on; there’s just sooo much more out there that could be leaked: sooo many Dem electeds and higher ups texting all their media and media adjacent contacts with concerns they have and are hearing.
The betting odds now show Biden and Harris at the same odds of winning - $6.50 for both currently. Trump is $1.50. Newsom in 4th with $11.00 EDIT: Actually the odds are moving so much that Harris is now the favorite over Biden.
I think the democrats have to take Kamala and Pete off the table in any replacement talks. It’s clear this was an open secret in the WH and they’re culpable in this gaslighting. Being VP and a cabinet member respecively, it’s gonna be pretty hard to prove deniability to the American public.. I think the ticket has to come from outisde of DC (would help neuter the “drain the swamp” narrative of trump if Dems do it themselves) Popular governors should be at the top of the short list.
> prove deniability to the American public that they didn’t know I still don't get this talking point, at all. I saw the debate and I thought to myself: Biden did well, just as usual. This is Biden, very old and losing it. He has been like this since 2020, but getting worse over time. I am genuinely surprised there are so many people shocked by Biden's appearance, this is Biden folks..... He kept stumbling on stairs, getting lost in the garden, freezing etc. for years. But whenever it was reported by Fox and others on the right, it was ignored or mocked on the left. You should be shocked that the media and news you followed hid this from you, not that there is a cabal hiding Biden...
You need sources to print if you’re reputable. The only thing that could really be surpressed big time is the opinion column. There was signs and there have been plenty of articles over the years, that’s why Thursday hit like an asteroid, people had strongly suspected he was diminished. 76.% of Dems thought he was too old to run last year, so it wasn’t a shock to most people and that’s why you’re seeing so many calls to step down
> He kept stumbling on stairs Well to be fair the stairs weren't a problem at the debate, he just happened to have Jill leading him down like I do my grandfather whose in a nursing home.
Who is suggesting Pete
I’ve seen his name tossed around a fair amount. Not a front runner by any means but prob makes a list of top 10, but for reasons listed earlier, he shouldn’t be considered
People who forget he lost in the 2020 primary and shifted his positions around to whatever polled better in the moment. The dude has done a terrible job at the DoT and would do a terrible job as president.
What’s Vegas saying? I checked several months ago and Michelle Obama had the second highest odds among democrats for being elected president.
Trump is now at -175 to -188 depending on where you look, and Biden has absolutely plummeted to +350.
https://www.oddschecker.com/us/politics/us-politics +700 or 12.5% according to this.
Seemed to me that they were asking about the odds for other democrats Biden is -114 to be the democratic nominee. Newsom is next at +1400
She's always said she's not interested.
https://electionbettingodds.com
Market now, is Biden with a slight lead over Harris, then Newsom, M. Obama, Whitmer
If this poll is accurate, this election is already over. Trump +7.3% in PA is unrecoverable.
Per 538, Trump is at 251 safe/likely EC votes (and i think theyre being a bit *too* conservative, with North Carolina as “leans red”, when theres no chance in hell Biden wins it). Pennsylvania swinging back all but locks up the election, after that its just a dick measuring contest over Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire, Virginia (and Biden could really only afford to lose 1 of those even with a win in Pennsylvania). It feels an awful lot like a mirror of 2020, where Trump was defending razor thin margins covering a lot of ground, and needed everything to land perfectly. Once one domino falls, i suspect the rest will and this could easily be a blowout. Itll either be a very narrow 280 or so EC win for Biden, or (MUCH more likely) 320+ for Trump and a probable popular vote win.
[удалено]
Yeah Biden appearing senile makes it much easier for the republicans to paint it as the GNCs policies and agendas than Biden’s
Of course not. 70 percent or more don't want Trump OR Biden. The race to the bottom has gotten to "Convicted felon and narcissist" versus "Confused Octogenarian who can't recite a 15 second bit on what his job during a debate"
Well a large problem is realistically anyone the dems nominate poll worse than Biden does.
That's because 70% of people don't know the other Candidates. Dig into the polling and look at the actual details. It's almost impossible to poll a hypothetical when you don't know the other options. It's way more damning that Biden an incumbent polls the same as somebody with 0 name recognition. But if he was replaced they would have potential upside because they will be talked about from now until the election with one of the craziest races we would see. Biden only has downside. Everything was baked in. And he's still going down further. That's quite the accomplishment. At this point it's a guaranteed loss. We should at least have some fun with the risk. For example Michelle Obama. 11 points over Trump. That's what a normal candidate with name recognition would yield. And they'd get that name recognition from having one of the most talked about conventions in the last 60 years, maybe more. It's a show worth watching and everybody would be tuned in. Or keep Biden and people don't show up. Trump supporters in every ear in the swing States that are needed.
I honestly think a lot of people outside the dem/GOP field don’t know who any of these people are. About 60-70% of the country is really into politics and those people have already decided long ago who they’re voting for. The remaining 40-30% go back and forth and many aren’t political junkies like many of us are, and those the people who will swing the vote. Many of those voters probably dont know much about Newsom or Whitmer or any of these candidates I’d they know anything about them at all
> It's over. Americans want Trump and his entire agenda. I lean to the right, and I know plenty of Republicans. Nobody is excited about Trump. This election is a referendum on Biden/Harris and the last four years. It's that simple.
There are some people excited for Trump but the vast majority like you said are more voting against Biden/Harris than they are voting for Trump. I think the thing that was really swinging people to Trump before the debate was that everything has gotten way more expensive and people have less $ in their pocket and illegal immigration. Biden in a race that *it felt* like Trump had a slight edge in just torpedoed himself. That being said this is all on the Democratic Party for running Joe again when he’s definitely lost a large amount of his cognitive abilities. My family has a history of dementia and Alzheimer’s and watching him over the last year has brought a lot of those same memories up. I just don’t understand how they thought this was a good ideaz
Starter: A leaked memo published by three news site Puck shows that following the disastrous debate last week Biden’s favorability numbers plummeted to the “the largest single-week drop” in nearly three years. The memo goes on to detail how according to research from a leading democratic action committee that has funded over $100 million to Biden the steep drop is largely a byproduct of the rapidly increasing tension surrounding Biden’s mental acuity and the sharp contrast in views between Democrats on how to proceed forward. The memo lists an extensive number of carefully selected Democrats - current VP Harris, Buttigeg, Whitmer and Newsom - who now as polling shows technically fare better against Trump than Biden. Attachment of the memo: https://puck.news/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/SUNDAY_Post-Debate_Landscape_2024_06_30__1_-1.pdf As you can see on pages 10 and 11, which adjust the other candidates based on metrics to account for name recognition that would come with a national candidacy, everyone blows Biden out of the water. ——- Opinion: I’m rooting for a Whitmer/Buttigeg ticket! I desperately hope Harris is permenantly dropped even as VP but I do realize the shitstorm that’s undoubtedly bound to cause
I am skeptical. Those other people haven't been under the microscope as a presidential candidate. Newsom is a nonstarter in my opinion due to his rank covid hypocrisy.
Agreed. It's absolutely wild to me that Newsom seems to be the main person who would replace Biden. I feel like we would be better off just keeping Biden if he's the alternative.
Kamala was such a horrendous pick as VP. Pure pandering, with no redeeming qualities as a politician, so yea - I agree that if Dems decide to move on, then they need to move on from Kamala as well. Whitmer/Buttigeg seems like the safest pick. Newsom would absolutely crush Trump in a debate, but the California baggage might be too great to overcome for voters.
Yeah Newsome would be a poison pill for any of the states like WI, MI, and Pennsylvania. Probably even NV and AZ voters probably would pass on a ticket that includes Newsome.
I imagine CO and NM would pass on that too.
He sets off so many of my used car salesman alarms. I really don't know for sure what it is but I can't see Newsom without tasting bile.
I'm not as sure that's the right ticket. Dropping Kamala and picking up Buttigeg for VP seems like it would be absolute death with the black community, especially considering more conservative black opinions on homosexuality.
You can take Georgia off the map if they replace Kamala with Buttigeg.
Even if you keep Kamala you can probably take it off the map. Ads featuring her actual deeds in California means the people she needs in Atlanta don't turn out. The same thing that nuked her primary run in 2020 will nuke any chance she has of motivating enough black voters to save Georgia.
Her spot on the BET awards this weekend was very cringeworthy.
Nah man, you just aren’t “out here in these streets” like she is.
I have a friend who saw her live. My friend described Kamala, and said that she was basically pumping up the crowd like a bizarro version of Arsenio Hall. Kamala used to date talk show host Montell Williams, and she seems to have developed a really bizarre/pandering/inauthentic style. It's difficult to imagine how she could ever win; the only hope would be to pick an incredibly strong VP candidate and attempt to get the message across to voters that the VP would be playing a major role in the presidency. Naturally, Kamala can't go anywhere, because all of fundraising money is in the Biden/Harris camp. If anyone but Biden and Harris are on the ticket, all of that money is G-O-N-E. The new candidate would have to fundraise from scratch.
Georgia’s been off the map for a while
Whitmer/Warnock? I mean, if they want to go for maximum ~~pandering~~ electability. Got your midwest covered, your Georgia covered, your women voters, Black voters...
Probably Michigan too
Pandering to black voters of all these years is coming back to bite Democrats. No reason one single minority group should hold all this sway.
Because they are a reliable base. Politics 101: appeal to people who actually fucking vote first.
Well, [according to Pew](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voter-turnout-2018-2022/), black voters still aren’t nearly as reliable as white voters. Even non-college educated white voters—who command the largest share of the electorate—turn out at a higher rate than black voters, yet Democrats have spent the last decade or so pandering *against* them.
> Newsom would absolutely crush Trump in a debate, but the California baggage might be too great to overcome for voters. Adam Carolla debated Gavin Newsom last Friday. Newsom lost. When the host of "The Man Show" can run rings around someone, that's *not a good sign.* https://youtu.be/8OqSwlmGs_A?t=219
Uhh what? VP choices are ALWAYS about pandering. EVERY TIME. Trump chose Pence for the evangelical conservative vote. Obama chose Biden for the older white moderates. Like come on.
Pandering is fine as long as your VP pick is popular. That’s especially important if you’re a declining octogenarian.
You think Trump is going to agree to debate any candidate who is 20 to 30 years younger than him? Nope.
Maybe Whitmer/Booker. Then we avoid the taking a POC off the ticket issue.
The Democrats shunning the black, female incumbent VP would guarantee an election loss. You get Biden. If not him, you get Harris, and she has a snowball's chance in hell of winning a general election.
Not going with Harris would absolutely confirm that her abilities and merit as a politician had zero impact on the decision to make her the VP.
I mean that was confirmed before she was even picked This would just be a reminder
Disagree. There is just someone even better now and she is needed, ah, somewhere else important.
Secretary of Agriculture?
Attorney general?
Her history of prosecutions might be popular.
There is no good move here. Not a single one I can think of. They are probably stuck with Joe.
No, it wouldn't. The main voting blocks that are liable to really care about that are super liberal upper middle to upper class women and woke college kids, and they're on so many levels of TDS that they'll vote against Trump anyways. Heck, getting a leader that wasn't at all involved with the Israel/Palestine issue might help with the latter group.
Black women are an important voting bloc for the Dems though
Any evidence that they like Kamala? Not like she was polling well in South Carolina in during the 2020 primaries I feel like we are playing the losing identity politics game again that the groups we think we are appealing to don’t want to be pandered to in this way.
Absolutely, but they're not nearly as invested in identity politics. You do have to make sure to pick a candidate that black voters in general like since they're a very important voting block, but black women specifically aren't liable to throw a fit over Kamala Harris being slighted so long as you give them a candidate they think will do right by them and their communities.
They might not be as invested, but the message “when things get serious, gotta go white” isn’t gonna exactly endear them.
There's no need for that to be the narrative though. They got a whole party apparatus and a number of friendly mainstream media outlets to help shape a different one. Again, so long as the candidate is someone they like and think will make their lives better I don't think they'll care.
More like “when appealing to racist voters might help avoid catastrophe, it may be good to go white”. I can see some black voters getting onboard with a pragmatic solution like that. Just because they’re black doesn’t mean they’re uncompromising idealists.
[удалено]
Important, but tiny.
Clyburn with make damn sure SC isn’t for that ticket.
SC is a solid red state so people are paying too much attention to Clyburn. WI, MI, and PA are going to decide the election.
Which means this opens up a huge opportunity to fix a major issue that's been screwing the Democrats for a while now. The progressive wing has been screwing the Democrats pretty hard and this year the Democrats have got a guaranteed loss basically no matter what they do. So nominate Kamala, lose anyway, and then use that as justification to blame the progressives for the loss and justify pushing them out of the party.
Might as well wheel Bernie out lol.
From what I see most blacks see that Kamala is simply a choice to pander to them. Here in Chicago many African Americans are upset with amount of public money being direct towards migrants which is valid considering many lower-income communities fight tooth and nail for half that amount of funding. Trump on the other hand is getting celebrated by these communities.
It’s like all of you forget that the only reason Biden won the nomination is because he promised to pick a black woman as his VP. Unless you get her to endorse them, it’s going to be a shitstorm.
I’ll keep saying it. We’re headed towards a landslide. The damage done last Thursday cannot be overstated.
He'll go on a highly edited and scripted media tour in the next few weeks to shore up his numbers. And I'd be shocked if there is another live debate. Unless they replace him.
Trump should suggest another debate where his mic is muted the *entire* time. Literally just stand there and make faces for 90 minutes.
Where is your sense of fun? Allow Trump a total of three one-liners.
Just mute both of them and let them argue amongst themselves and we get to see them making faces. It's what it's coming too.
Im pretty sure the first one to take a swing would lose. Spoiler - itll be Biden. Dementia makes old men ANGRY
> Trump should suggest another debate where his mic is muted the entire time. > > Literally just stand there and make faces for 90 minutes. Picture Trump just going up there and playing with his phone for his allotted time, saying literally nothing. He could really rub it in by playing Candy Crush the whole time.
They should do the debate during that golf game they were arguing about.
I think his odds are roughly the same as your odds were when you flew across the infield.
🤣 🤣 You could be right!
> Unless they replace him That would make it tricky, because Trump has no reason to debate the newcomer.
Nobody will buy that shit any more then they are buying his teleprompter speeches and the rate of damaging leaks is accelerating.
RemindMe! 5 months
[удалено]
I’m calling on Joe to get out on the golf course for a 1 on 1 throw down! Finish what they started during the debate. Oh! And carry their own bag.
Current electoral map according to their polling: https://www.270towin.com/maps/dk2Qp Talk about a landslide. It's kind of crazy that Biden's age/fumbles seem to be significantly more important to voters than Trump's dishonesty and "problematic" actions/statements.
If you flip Minnesota and NJ, it’s the closest thing to 1984
At the end of the day, data points like this will be what forces change. Not reality. Power > people, and we're seeing that right now (every day that Biden is still President)
N.B: The map you linked shows Trump losing ME-2, so it's actually one EV higher than that according to the memo.
[удалено]
The other part there is quietly even the census screws Democrats a bit Democrat strongholds New York, California, and Illinois each lost an electoral vote.
The problem is most people also heard Joe Biden lie, like he's done for years. It's expected of politicians at this point. He's just also incapable of performing the job on top of that. Which is kind of a deal breaker.
In a time of increasing global tensions, conflicts, and wars I don’t think it’s crazy that people may want a dishonest and “problematic” candidate over one that can’t do the job at all. edit - I should add that this is if the election were held today and our choice, realistically, is between Biden and Trump. A lot can happen before the election though.
I think one thing to consider is this. At worst, voting for Trump leads to a dictatorship in America (I don't personally believe Trump has any actual desire for this but it's a worry some people have), on the other hand, at worst, Biden leads to a dictatorship of *another* country in America by fumbling the ball. I think it's that kind of thing that makes Biden look worse to some people.
Are you claiming Biden doesn't have a big track record of dishonesty and problematic statements?
American voters have cared about image more than anything else for decades now. If nothing else, Trump appeared far more energetic and capable of actually executing the duties of the office than Biden did, and I'm not sure Biden can recover from that unless he does a second debate and absolutely crushes it.
I think part of the issue is, all politicians are dishonest. You can’t really use that as a reason to not vote for one, they all lie through their teeth and say whatever is needed in the moment. So really it comes down to Trumps actions which depending on the voter are either good or bad.
> I think part of the issue is, all politicians are dishonest. Not only that but what's been revealed since Thursday shows that one party is more dishonest than the other and it's not the one who has been screaming about the opposition being dishonest. People are smart enough to know that the only way Biden could decline to where he was Thursday without it being public knowledge was if a whole lot of people who had spent a whole lot of time screaming about honesty were actually being very dishonest. There is a legitimate argument now to say that the Democratic Party is even more dishonest than Trump and not by a small amount.
Practically the only thing Biden's camp has now is calling Trump literal Hitler, claiming he's going to be dictator for life and start building the concentration camps, but only the Democrat true believers are going to buy that. In 2020 Biden claimed he was going to bring ethics and normalcy to the office again. Now that we see how not true that is, he doesn't have much to stand on.
> Practically the only thing Biden's camp has now is calling Trump literal Hitler, claiming he's going to be dictator for life and start building the concentration camps, but only the Democrat true believers are going to buy that. > > Post-debate, [Maine Democratic Congressman explicitly denying that Trump's reelection will threaten American democracy](https://www.bangordailynews.com/2024/07/02/opinion/opinion-contributor/jared-golden-donald-trump-going-to-win-election-democracy-be-just-fine/)
Agree. Then the fact check that rolled out after and essentially crucified Biden. They really don’t have any moral ground anymore to call Trump / GOP liars. It’s ironic the way things are unfolding.
well that's... fucking catastrophic for democrats.
Because the same people and sources telling us Trump is lying about XYZ, and telling us he's said or done problematic things, are the same people who have just been revealed to be lying to us for years about Biden. You have that one reporter saying Biden was sharper than he was at the time, even when many people already saw Bidens decline. The same folks that mockingly said "I don't care about Hunter I'm not voting for him" are now finding out that apparently Hunter has been in high level meetings with Joe and giving advice for a while. So when those people are shown to not be trustworthy, combined with media fact checks that show some oft repeated claims about Trump are not true (the Very Fine People comment comes to mind), and now, you've got a lot of folks wondering if all the bad stuff they heard wasn't either made up or at least exaggerated. That is why soke folks are fine with Trump. And keep in mind, despite it constantly being explained, Trump still claims were giving $60B a pop to Ukraine. It's been explained numerous times that's largely the price tag of the weapons that were on their way to be decommissioned. But still people think we're hanging Zelensky briefcase full of cash. There's no ability to parse through what's true and what isn't. Heck, when Biden had a chance to say all that to Trump during the debate, instead we got...I don't know. I couldn't understand Biden. So you have a combination of people getting lied to and not believing anything these sources say, and low levels of understanding for things like Ukraine (and shortsightedness on why it's important they survive).
Well there are about 100 articles a day posted about Bidens age. Similarly to how Genocide Joe was coined before Israel did anything in response to Gaza. These opposing team is just simply better about weaponizing Bidens weaknesses than his teams is to Trump.
While the Republicans pounce argument is typically highly effective, it just isn’t going to be sufficient this time. This is a dire case for Biden. Too many voters witnessed the debate.
Yep 1000s of articles against Trump this year alone and nothing has really stuck like this has against Joe
So, what if the Democrats just decided to make Biden (and maybe some select cabinet members) a big scapegoat, and just pin everything unpopular about this administration on them, before rolling out a new candidate? Maybe even have some major figures in the party claim that they were also misled, gaslit, etc. and just try to really wipe the slate; all while doing some backroom horse trading to get someone ,who's actually reasonably popular, to accept being the new nominee (as well as the risks to their career that come with it) for this election, and in exchange promising them a major position in one of the less visible parts of the party's leadership in the event that they lose. Would an idea like that have any viability?
They would for sure lose the Progressives, possibly a portion of POC. Most of their media backing. They can’t clean the slate. It’s baked in now.
[удалено]
Democrats should replace him. I agree that Biden seems most likely to have already lost the election, so don't run him. Run someone else. Check whether he's actually declined nearly as much as the debate made it look first, sure, and if it turns out he has then run someone else. What's the point in running a candidate you know is almost certain to lose? Take the risk, run someone else, worst case scenario the end result will be the same as running Biden.
> Check whether he's actually declined nearly as much as the debate made it look first, sure, and if it turns out he has then run someone else. Not an option. He won't agree to it. They can't force him to do anything against his will. For years, Biden has been criticized for leveraging his position to benefit his family. The media ran interference for him; told everyone that it wasn't true. If it *wasn't* true, he would have agreed to drop out on Sunday. He didn't. And he won't.
if democracy is truly on the line, then why would you vote for someone that is clearly not the one making the decisions? isn't that exactly what happens right before authoritarian regimes take over?
[удалено]
Biden’s election did coordinate to keep their candidate’s health a secret. With tons of media parroting the obvious lie. What else are they capable of?
Even if that were true, and I don't think it is, it would still be better, and necessary as someone supportive of democracy, not to vote for the authoritarian candidate.
[удалено]
The Senate is extremely difficult to hold without the tiebreaking vote for Democrats. I don't know that I put too much stock in public statements so far. They are in a difficult situation, where Democrats don't want to damage the ticket more if he isn't dropping out. I wouldn't be surprised if privately they are arguing for him to drop out.
Age as a concern is immutable. Short of throwing out a video of him benching 225 for 10 reps, no amount of dog-and-pony shows is going to change the perception that Biden is old and frail. People want a leader they feel is competent, and Biden just *looks* bad. There's no fixing that. If the Democrats want a shot to win, they need to tell Jill and Hunter to step aside, put Kamala up for the nomination, and find someone who exudes order and confidence as a VP. Save your Whitmers, Shapiros, and the rest of your young bench for a future election. Kamala, for all of her baggage, will have the tremendous benefit of being seen as younger than Biden, and more normal than Trump.
I mean, a media tour, town halls, another debate where he does well, there are lots of things he could do. But those require being able to do them, and I suspect we wouldn't be in the situation we're in in the first place if he were.
He would have been on the road that Friday.
Kamala would lose to Trump in almost just as big of a landslide as Biden though…..
Kamala is a known quality, and Americans want her even less than they want Biden. The one wrong replacement the Dems could possibly pick is Kamala. The only people who want her in are the people playing identity politics. It’d actually be hilarious if the Democrats do grow a spine and replace Biden, only to replace him with Kamala. The election would be a massive landslide.
If Biden does drop out, he'll have a chance to do a bunch of controversial shit just before leaving office after the election is over. He's so old, even if it was illegal, what are they going to do? Put him in jail for a few years before he dies? He'll probably just die during the trial. Come to think of it, Trump's going to have the same opportunity at the end of his term when he's the same age.
It’ll all be immune from prosecution because it’s an official act or presumed to be legal and no way to prove it’s not since you can’t take into account motive.