I think your logic is a bit flawed. For starters picks don’t need to turn into stars to have value. Getting key rotation players is plenty. Secondly the majority of picks being used aren’t picks that were traded for, so naturally the picks that pay off are gonna skew far more to teams using their own picks. That doesn’t really matter, because teams are generally confident in their own drafting abilities, so having a pick in that range gives them the chance to select who they think will pan out. Precedent isn’t very important. Same point applies to later draft picks. Obviously the conversion rate of finding stars or valuable role players in that range is low just due to odds, but it does happen every year. Teams believe in themselves to be the teams that find those diamonds in the rough.
You couldn’t have picked worse examples to prove your point than OKC and Houston. J Dub came from the clippers pick they got which conveyed in the lottery. And he’s a huge part of their success and promising future. The rockets picks from other teams have turned into Tari eason, Alperen sengun and cam Whitmore, their current focal point and two high potential young guys that are a part of their young core 6. That’s already a strong return and most of the picks both teams have from other teams are still in the pipeline.
The value fans place on draft picks stems from the value teams place on draft picks which is evident from the trades we see year after year.
It’s more about the fact that a team now has to pay a player like giddey, whereas picks leave them much more flexible. Getting contributions from guys on rookie contracts can be a huge boost for a contending team.
Giddey is better than probably 80-90% of the guys in any given draft, but is it worth paying him 10x more than a project rookie with a shot to be great? That depends on the team and situation, but it’s not as simple as choosing the more sure contributor.
You’re taking about Giddey like he’s not 21 and isn’t also basically a project rn lol. In a few years people will see that trade as a win/win or at least no clear winner
> You’re taking about Giddey like he’s not 21 and isn’t also basically a project rn lol.
Right, but the Bulls have to make a large, long term financial commitment to that project in the next year. I don’t think it was a bad trade either way, just explaining why teams would value picks over a more proven guy in the last year of his rookie deal.
Giddey is a 21 yo project when there’s 18-20 year old projects in every draft with higher upside potential lol.
There being much better options on the table is the reason why this is a shit trade.
Giddey is a high upside project. He's 6' 8 and was averaging 16/8/6 in his second year. The recency bias is crazy cause it was only one season ago that everybody was hyped about him and thinking that he would be the second best player on OKC
I never said he has a bad upside, I said there are many higher upside projects every draft, which is beyond undeniable when (even in a much weaker year like this year), you have far more athletic projects like Holland / Salaun / Collier / Tyler Smith either going late lottery or risking slipping out of it.
Or if you want someone more comparable, Topic (likely to be a late lottery guy) also has great height and exceptional passing at 18, plus much better indicators that he can develop better shooting and that’s without 3 years of NBA coaching.
The appeal of Giddey over these guys is that he has less bust potential, but that’s not really something a rebuild team should be worrying about to this extent?
The Bulls got the better, younger player. OKC paid a premium (because they can) for financial flexibility, and a cheaper player with a cleaner fit for their system.
It’s already one of the best win/win trades we’ve had in recent memory. Caruso could be injured the back half of the season and I’d still like the process that led to it amidst disappointing results. Giddey could flame out completely, but this is exactly what the Bulls should be doing if they aren’t going to tank with an 88 year old owner.
Caruso is an incredible specialist, but Giddey does way more on a basketball court.
I absolutely adore Caruso, but he’s a specialist with a barely more reliable jumper. Giddey is probably the better player right this moment. If he hadn’t had the drama of this last year, it probably wouldn’t even be a question.
This is a fantastic job of buying low for a franchise intent on getting real players back. OKC wouldn’t do this trade in a vacuum. It’s not a vacuum though, and they want a cheaper more fixed cost on their books than Giddey will be. They’re fine overpaying for fit and finances.
The only thing Caruso does significantly better is defend. His jumper is just as questionable, he’s shorter, a worse rebounder, has less ability to create a shot for himself in addition to creating for others.
Giddey isn’t some slouch. I adore Caruso, but what the fuck use is he to Chicago? They **need** to be getting rid of their vets for some youth with room to grow. Giddey needs a franchise willing to pay to see him develop, Caruso needs to be playing in games that matter.
Caruso has shot multiple percentage points better than Giddey at a greater rate over the last 2 years, in both wide open and open situations so the shot comment is false. Giddey struggles to create his shot as well and doesn’t have the gravity to create for other consistently unless it’s a pass to the cutter. My issue isn’t trading Caruso it’s who they traded him for. By the numbers, film and impact metrics Giddey has been looking like a slouch that putting up good counting stats one season
Man, I adore Caruso, and without even looking up the numbers I can tell you that they’re unstable percentages with extremely low volume until this last year, where he finally became a normal low volume shooter.
I know this without a doubt solely because hasn’t been healthy enough to be a good shooter in the NBA. He’s always dinged up- because the thing we love about the guy is he throws his body around with reckless abandon. It’s hard to shoot 40% when you’re taking 2 shots per game and you’re always dealing with some bone bruise or sprained ankle.
The shot is exactly as I described. Questionable. Defenses will ignore Caruso exactly as much as they ignored Giddey, and Caruso’s volume means on average he will punish them .3 more times per game than Giddey does for ignoring him.
He played 70 games and shot 6 threes per 36 and 8.1 per 100 possessions. To say it’s as questionable as Giddey is factually incorrect over the last 2 years lmao. Questionable would makes sense speaking on Pat Will who is a rather low volume but good three point shooter
Yes. I don’t think it is particularly close either. I think the only thing making it close is how low our perceptions are of him after a year of self inflicted dramas.
Do you all not watch him play? Or what’s the deal? Because he’s a hell of a young player that does a ton of things at a pretty high level for a 21 year old. He does way more on a court than Caruso. Caruso has the specialist thing going for him where he only has to do 2-3 things but he does those things at an all defense level with passable connective playmaking and spacing.
He’s clearly the target of opposing schemes in his current version, but Chicago has the time to let him grow out of that. OKC just spent the last season letting us know their window has already started.
Edit: even in a bad year, you all realize Giddey put up 17/7/9 per 36 minutes, right? That his shooting is 33% with league average only being 36%. He’s not hopeless, he’s just below average on one skill.
He does a ton of things at a high level? Please let me know what he does well. I’ve watched almost every one of his games the last two seasons and all he can do is rebound and inbound the ball. Awful shooter. Awful defender. Can’t dribble and is a mid finisher so his passing ability is useless in a halfcourt offense because teams simply won’t guard him. yeah
I think you’ve summed up his negatives quite nicely. Do you not recognize how good you have to be to be as productive as he is with all those negatives holding you back? He’s averaging 7 assists per 36 with people outright loading up on his passing lanes and daring him to either shoot or finish. 17 per 36 while shooting barely below average on a low volume of jumpers. If he hits average or above he has a clear path to being a fringe all-star and legit top 3 option.
Ask Tatum how hard he’s had to work on that skill to be a fraction as productive of a playmaker with the ability to actually go out there and compromise a defense.
And this takes away from the fact that none of his flaws matter for a team willing to pay to develop him. He won’t be costing Chicago a finals trip anytime soon, probably won’t even be a Bull by the time they get there.
The Celtics did not get Tatum with the Kings pick, he was drafted with the Brooklyn pick. They traded their last BKN pick to Cleveland which ended up being Sexton in the IT for Kyrie trade. The Kings pick they had ended up being Romeo Langford.
I kind of understand your point, but like the other guy said, you don't use the best examples.
Better example would be like Toronto trading OG for Quickely instead of picks. That's a young, cost controlled asset you get to evaluate for a year and half which might be better than a late FRP.
Apart from that, FRP are both lottery tickets and currency. You just need them to enter trade conversations in the first place.
I think your logic is a bit flawed. For starters picks don’t need to turn into stars to have value. Getting key rotation players is plenty. Secondly the majority of picks being used aren’t picks that were traded for, so naturally the picks that pay off are gonna skew far more to teams using their own picks. That doesn’t really matter, because teams are generally confident in their own drafting abilities, so having a pick in that range gives them the chance to select who they think will pan out. Precedent isn’t very important. Same point applies to later draft picks. Obviously the conversion rate of finding stars or valuable role players in that range is low just due to odds, but it does happen every year. Teams believe in themselves to be the teams that find those diamonds in the rough. You couldn’t have picked worse examples to prove your point than OKC and Houston. J Dub came from the clippers pick they got which conveyed in the lottery. And he’s a huge part of their success and promising future. The rockets picks from other teams have turned into Tari eason, Alperen sengun and cam Whitmore, their current focal point and two high potential young guys that are a part of their young core 6. That’s already a strong return and most of the picks both teams have from other teams are still in the pipeline. The value fans place on draft picks stems from the value teams place on draft picks which is evident from the trades we see year after year.
It’s more about the fact that a team now has to pay a player like giddey, whereas picks leave them much more flexible. Getting contributions from guys on rookie contracts can be a huge boost for a contending team. Giddey is better than probably 80-90% of the guys in any given draft, but is it worth paying him 10x more than a project rookie with a shot to be great? That depends on the team and situation, but it’s not as simple as choosing the more sure contributor.
You’re taking about Giddey like he’s not 21 and isn’t also basically a project rn lol. In a few years people will see that trade as a win/win or at least no clear winner
> You’re taking about Giddey like he’s not 21 and isn’t also basically a project rn lol. Right, but the Bulls have to make a large, long term financial commitment to that project in the next year. I don’t think it was a bad trade either way, just explaining why teams would value picks over a more proven guy in the last year of his rookie deal.
Giddey is a 21 yo project when there’s 18-20 year old projects in every draft with higher upside potential lol. There being much better options on the table is the reason why this is a shit trade.
Giddey is a high upside project. He's 6' 8 and was averaging 16/8/6 in his second year. The recency bias is crazy cause it was only one season ago that everybody was hyped about him and thinking that he would be the second best player on OKC
I never said he has a bad upside, I said there are many higher upside projects every draft, which is beyond undeniable when (even in a much weaker year like this year), you have far more athletic projects like Holland / Salaun / Collier / Tyler Smith either going late lottery or risking slipping out of it. Or if you want someone more comparable, Topic (likely to be a late lottery guy) also has great height and exceptional passing at 18, plus much better indicators that he can develop better shooting and that’s without 3 years of NBA coaching. The appeal of Giddey over these guys is that he has less bust potential, but that’s not really something a rebuild team should be worrying about to this extent?
The Bulls got the better, younger player. OKC paid a premium (because they can) for financial flexibility, and a cheaper player with a cleaner fit for their system. It’s already one of the best win/win trades we’ve had in recent memory. Caruso could be injured the back half of the season and I’d still like the process that led to it amidst disappointing results. Giddey could flame out completely, but this is exactly what the Bulls should be doing if they aren’t going to tank with an 88 year old owner.
> The Bulls got the better, younger player Well he’s certainly one of those
Caruso is an incredible specialist, but Giddey does way more on a basketball court. I absolutely adore Caruso, but he’s a specialist with a barely more reliable jumper. Giddey is probably the better player right this moment. If he hadn’t had the drama of this last year, it probably wouldn’t even be a question. This is a fantastic job of buying low for a franchise intent on getting real players back. OKC wouldn’t do this trade in a vacuum. It’s not a vacuum though, and they want a cheaper more fixed cost on their books than Giddey will be. They’re fine overpaying for fit and finances.
The only thing Giddey is better at is rebounding and passing the ball. Literally does nothing else better. This is a hilarious comment man
The only thing Caruso does significantly better is defend. His jumper is just as questionable, he’s shorter, a worse rebounder, has less ability to create a shot for himself in addition to creating for others. Giddey isn’t some slouch. I adore Caruso, but what the fuck use is he to Chicago? They **need** to be getting rid of their vets for some youth with room to grow. Giddey needs a franchise willing to pay to see him develop, Caruso needs to be playing in games that matter.
Caruso has shot multiple percentage points better than Giddey at a greater rate over the last 2 years, in both wide open and open situations so the shot comment is false. Giddey struggles to create his shot as well and doesn’t have the gravity to create for other consistently unless it’s a pass to the cutter. My issue isn’t trading Caruso it’s who they traded him for. By the numbers, film and impact metrics Giddey has been looking like a slouch that putting up good counting stats one season
Man, I adore Caruso, and without even looking up the numbers I can tell you that they’re unstable percentages with extremely low volume until this last year, where he finally became a normal low volume shooter. I know this without a doubt solely because hasn’t been healthy enough to be a good shooter in the NBA. He’s always dinged up- because the thing we love about the guy is he throws his body around with reckless abandon. It’s hard to shoot 40% when you’re taking 2 shots per game and you’re always dealing with some bone bruise or sprained ankle. The shot is exactly as I described. Questionable. Defenses will ignore Caruso exactly as much as they ignored Giddey, and Caruso’s volume means on average he will punish them .3 more times per game than Giddey does for ignoring him.
He played 70 games and shot 6 threes per 36 and 8.1 per 100 possessions. To say it’s as questionable as Giddey is factually incorrect over the last 2 years lmao. Questionable would makes sense speaking on Pat Will who is a rather low volume but good three point shooter
Better??? I'm pretty high on Giddey but you're insane if you think he's better than Caruso
Yes. I don’t think it is particularly close either. I think the only thing making it close is how low our perceptions are of him after a year of self inflicted dramas. Do you all not watch him play? Or what’s the deal? Because he’s a hell of a young player that does a ton of things at a pretty high level for a 21 year old. He does way more on a court than Caruso. Caruso has the specialist thing going for him where he only has to do 2-3 things but he does those things at an all defense level with passable connective playmaking and spacing. He’s clearly the target of opposing schemes in his current version, but Chicago has the time to let him grow out of that. OKC just spent the last season letting us know their window has already started. Edit: even in a bad year, you all realize Giddey put up 17/7/9 per 36 minutes, right? That his shooting is 33% with league average only being 36%. He’s not hopeless, he’s just below average on one skill.
He does a ton of things at a high level? Please let me know what he does well. I’ve watched almost every one of his games the last two seasons and all he can do is rebound and inbound the ball. Awful shooter. Awful defender. Can’t dribble and is a mid finisher so his passing ability is useless in a halfcourt offense because teams simply won’t guard him. yeah
I think you’ve summed up his negatives quite nicely. Do you not recognize how good you have to be to be as productive as he is with all those negatives holding you back? He’s averaging 7 assists per 36 with people outright loading up on his passing lanes and daring him to either shoot or finish. 17 per 36 while shooting barely below average on a low volume of jumpers. If he hits average or above he has a clear path to being a fringe all-star and legit top 3 option. Ask Tatum how hard he’s had to work on that skill to be a fraction as productive of a playmaker with the ability to actually go out there and compromise a defense. And this takes away from the fact that none of his flaws matter for a team willing to pay to develop him. He won’t be costing Chicago a finals trip anytime soon, probably won’t even be a Bull by the time they get there.
The Celtics did not get Tatum with the Kings pick, he was drafted with the Brooklyn pick. They traded their last BKN pick to Cleveland which ended up being Sexton in the IT for Kyrie trade. The Kings pick they had ended up being Romeo Langford.
and Langford was eventually part of the package Boston used to acquire Derrick White
Tyrese Maxey to the Sixers was a huge get. This team is rebuilding again right now if it wasn't for that pick, which was acquired in a trade with OKC.
I kind of understand your point, but like the other guy said, you don't use the best examples. Better example would be like Toronto trading OG for Quickely instead of picks. That's a young, cost controlled asset you get to evaluate for a year and half which might be better than a late FRP. Apart from that, FRP are both lottery tickets and currency. You just need them to enter trade conversations in the first place.