Some good homework there. The good thing about the Super Bowl is that all of these stats are gonna go out the window most likely. Teams are either gonna play better or worse than they did during the regular season. Experience and nerves also play a huge part in the big game. I see SF pulling a page out of the Bills’ playbook and running, running, running…..something the Ravens should have done since KC’s D has a hard time against the run. That’s the only thing I feel confident about saying for this SB. Everything else is unknown.
tbf i think this narrative gets overblown a bit tbf. kc dared baltimore to throw by stacking their box and playing man in the secondary, and it worked early. they were averaging 2-3 yards per carry at the first half, even with two explosive runs iirc. then kc got up two scores and looked like their offense was rolling, and baltimore didn’t really get a chance to run it late.
obviously baltimore’s game plan could’ve been better, but if you listen to harbaugh talk about it even he mentioned their game plan getting away from them bc of the situation. kc executed their game plan well and limited one of baltimore’s strengths long enough that the game situation took it away late. i think it’s dismissive of both baltimore and kc’s coaching staffs to just assume the ravens’ game plan was to go away from their strengths.
they ran the ball on designed handoffs I think exactly six times throughout the entire game despite having I think the best or second best rushing attack in the regular season. KCs defence schemed really well against that but its still really poor playcalling.
The Ravens rushed the ball with Edwards a grand total of 3 times. His rushing was responsible for almost 1/6 of their total offensive production in the regular season. They absolutely went away from their strengths on offense.
his running was entirely unsuccessful, and none of their rushing schemes showed any promise. it’s not like they didn’t run it early. they just couldn’t find any success in doing so, and then they were down two scores. you’re not running your way back into a game down two scores against an offense that scored with ease three times in the first half.
their staff has pretty blatantly said they had a game plan to run, but the situations took it away quickly. like mike tyson said, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face. it just seems like lazy analysis to say baltimore never planned to run it, in part bc it assumes their offensive game plan never changed from being tied 0-0 to down 17-7.
20 yards in 3 carries is not “entirely unsuccessful”. They put the ball in the hands of their RBs 6 times rushing. It’s silly to even suggest they gave an honest effort there.
> his running was entirely unsuccessful, and none of their rushing schemes showed any promise. it’s not like they didn’t run it early.
I don’t think we watched the same game. Edwards went 15 yards on his first carry, early in the game. It’s exactly that they didn’t run it early. The RBs had 6 carries for the whole game. 3 in the first half. I don’t know how you could look at that and say “well they tried but it didn’t work.” That’s just not trying. You suggesting that was a valid attempt at trying to run is gross misrepresentation.
I don’t disagree with the rest of what you said though. The staff knew the game plan, then threw it out because they thought they were about to get into a shootout. No one knew the defense would pitch as close as a shutout as you can get against Mahomes after the first two drives.
Eh it was Lamar's fault he didn't run. There were a lot of times that game he could have took off, but someone hammered into his head this year he has to be a passer so he kept just scrambling side to side hoping someone would open up instead of using his own legs.
this is obviously pure conjecture and fan theory, but i think lamar’s lost a step and it’s made him a bit more hesitant to run. this season he had by far his lowest attempted scrambles and his yards per attempt were down, too. on the run he broke free (4th and 1) and went down early in ways we haven’t seen in the past, too.
last year, he missed a big chunk of the season with a knee injury and this year his rushing stats are down across the board. it’s obviously just a hypothesis, but i don’t think he’s the same runner or has the same confidence he had in the past.
He might not be as good as he used to but he still had plenty of first down runs this year, and could have had multiple against you guys because there were a lot of times there was a hole in front of him when you were crashing the pocket but he decided to run backworks to extend the play instead of forward for some reason.
It's kinda crazy because Lamar is still one of the best runners in the league even if he has lost a step. Sure don't be as aggressive maybe if you're not as confident but if they're giving you the scramble gotta take what is given
he definitely could’ve done better as a runner. i don’t disagree there. he just never looked confident. obviously my feeling through a tv screen from hundreds of miles away means nothing, but watching him turn to find sneed instead of trying to turn it up a gear on that 4th and 1 run actually brought some relief to me. i’ve never seen him turn behind him to find an approaching defender like that before.
and if he really wasn’t confident in his running ability (again, pure conjecture) it makes sense why he didn’t run. if you’re already worried about someone running you down from behind, you’re going to be significantly more hesitant to take someone head on.
I actually thought the same thing until I watched a good amount of his runs this year. He still has similar speed but he changed the way he’s running this year. He runs almost in a protective kinda way so that he doesn’t take nearly as many risks of injury so it’s kinda like he’s tip toeing around and he knows when to go down which helps since he didn’t get injured this year.
Exactly. He probably realizes it now if started running early those passes would open up better. Some of Chiefs Defense was biting hard on his reactions several plays didn't take advantage.
I don't know why people don't understand this. They chose to pass against those sets and struggled. But they thought they had a better chance in those situations than running.
We’ve over used him all year even when not necessary
Therefore the shanny out smarting himself in the playoffs move is 50/50 that hell only run with the backups because no one will see it coming!
I'm praying that there isn't a 1st and goal game winning situation on the 6th yardline where... Kyle chooses to pass for 4 downs, only to end the game with a broken pocket on Purdy with a hero toss to Aiyuk (where there's an uncalled defensive holding), and 9ers lose 30-34. Ugh.
To be fair, Kyle has had good redzone play calling this year, but between the NFCCG Seahawks loss & the Ravens Superbowl loss, I just feel like we're fated to see similar tragedy all over again.
RUN CMC WILL WIN IT.
Don't know how Purdy's nerves will be but he has much better arm talent then Lamar and better receivers so I think besides the O Line they will do better then the Ravens no matter the situation on offense. Its up to that D to lock down Mahomes which is the worrisome part.
Didn’t the ravens not run because the chiefs dc decided to stack the box? I think I remember hearing Niners don’t care about how many you have in the box and will try and pound it.
Not really true. People can’t see the logic in the Ravens underperforming offensively in the playoffs; it’s almost like facing better defenses than you see all season might impact your success.
Think people overlook that the Chiefs really didn’t move ball versus the Ravens. 17 points isn’t going to cut it versus a 49ers offense. No idea why Lamar didn’t take off multiple times, several easy running lanes he ignored to make a pass instead.
I like the homework myself but as any stat, there is a story and reason for it that stats alone do not tell. 49ers offense being banged up leaving the defense on the field, Purdy playing with a head injury that obviously made him see the game less clear. 5 weeks the 49ers had the opposing team coming off a bye week, more fresh during the period Deebo, Trent, CMC and Purdy all banged up.
49ers also don’t see the Chiefs the same way the AFC does. They have the same pedigree of players, coaches and mindset.
>Chiefs really didn’t move ball versus the Ravens.
The first half they only had 1 play for negative yards (-2 run) against Baltimores top defense. how is positive yards on basically every play not moving the ball? Kc also put the 17 up in 1 half. The second half was all about clock control up by 10. Look what happened when Bal got 3, Kc marched right doe the field and into scoring position.
>17 points isn’t going to cut it versus a 49ers offense
Bal and SF averaged roughly around the same amount before that 10pt game against KC...
SF was at their healthiest against Det last week and they are so lucky to be in the superbowl after that mess of a game. Hell they were so lucky to even be in the game AGAINST Det and very well could have been beat by a rebuilding Gb team.
AFC teams are just overall better than NFC teams right now. I'm shocked SF is even favored at all and I would not be shocked if KC wins by a td if not double digets.
Yep. Bills did it and were very successful. Yes, the Bills lost, but it was because they got behind and had to pass. If the Niners have the lead or are only a score behind, the run game should still be a priority. If the Niners get too far behind, then they will have to pass more. But I foresee a close game.
Almost everything had to go the Bills' way that game for them to even have a chance to tie it with 3 minutes left.
They won the TO battle, they won time of possession, they had more yards, they recovered both of their fumbles, they had more first downs, they converted more on 3rd down, they had two 4th down conversions, etc.
What it came down to was **efficiency**; Chiefs scored 27 points on 38 plays excluding kneeldowns (.71 points/play) while the Bills scored 24 on 78 plays (.31 points/play). Running the ball is inherently less efficient than passing, so you have to be *really* sure that you can stop the Chiefs offense from scoring quickly if you want to be run-heavy.
I'm not saying it's impossible to do, but it's like trying to beat the Warriors by driving to the basket. You might get 2 points on 50% of your shots, but if they're getting 3 on only 35% of theirs, you're still losing.
> I see SF pulling a page out of the Bills’ playbook and running, running, running…..something the Ravens should have done since KC’s D has a hard time against the run.
Spags practically dares teams to run throughout the first half, and if they keep with it in the second half, he adjusts. Chiefs have great linebackers and the best tackling secondary in the league, he just doesn't use them against the run until he has to.
I'm glad you mentioned the Bills, since they're one of the few teams that stuck with the run through the game. 22 carries for 124 yards (5.6/carry) and 2 TDs in the first half, Spagnuolo made his adjustments, 17 carries for 58 yards (3.4 yards/carry) and 0 TDs in the second half. To add to that, the Bills' commitment to the run *killed* 2 of their 3 drives in the 4th quarter (14 yards on 8 runs) when they absolutely needed a score.
Maybe the Ravens should have ran more, but I have a feeling that it didn't matter. Chiefs got into scoring range in 3 plays on their final drive, they were just milking the clock and letting the defense play lights-out the entire second half. You need to execute on passing plays to have a shot against the Chiefs, and that's the strongest part of their defense.
Spags has done a stellar job this season of adjusting. In past seasons, he didn’t do as good a job and just resorted to his old ways of calling the defense. Spags has grown as a DC which is awesome. We do have the best LB’s and secondary in the NFL. I am definitely not worried about them. The talent is amazing.
From my favorite 49ers film analyst **JonnydelsFA**
>The best way I can describe Spagnuplo's fronts? Precise chaos. The presentations stress OL assignments in both the run and pass game, and the potential for extra rushers gives the front a lot of 1v1 opportunities with good leverage.
Kyle Shanahan needs to fix his slow starts
IMO a much better metric for the strength of a defense is DVOA. And of the top half of defenses, San Francisco beat: Pittsburgh, Dallas, ~~Minnesota~~, Jacksonville, and Tampa Bay. Detroit also counts here.
Just something worth considering. I still think KC’s pass defense is going to be a mountain for them to get over, but Brock Purdy and the 49ers offense more capable against higher tier defenses than we’re giving them credit for.
On the other side of that, the top half of defenses that KC defeated: Jacksonville, NY Jets, Minnesota, Vegas, and New England. Then Buffalo and Baltimore in the playoffs.
Honestly both teams have a better resume on offense than I think this post would give them credit for. And both teams are top 10 on defense themselves. So this ought to be an all time great game
Edit: correction SF lost to Minnesota
agree with everything else, but we lost against minnesota: purdy got his head slammed into the ground and threw 2 picks late, cmc fumbled on the 2 yard line, and i think moody missed a kick too
oh, also kirk lit us the fuck up without jj
it was not our proudest moment
If the Ravens' CCG collapse taught us anything, it's that the stats on the day matter a hell of a lot less than the mental game. I think KC has the edge there (see: Ravens, Bills), but you never really know. Very few super bowls have had a 'known' victor at the start.
Truly, no one knows anything. I think of the Eagles this year as a perfect example. Before we played them they were 10-1 and they had just beaten the Cowboys, Chiefs, and Bills. They were coming off of a Super Bowl run where they barely lost after putting up a near flawless offensive performance. They weren't blowing teams out of the water but how do you argue against those results? I thought they were a juggernaut. I was terrified of going back in to Philly against that team. NO ONE could have seriously predicted the outcome of that game or how their season flipped afterwards. That was one of the most mind-exploding experiences of my football following life. It goes to show that I can't predict shit so I don't even try.
If there is a "sure thing" in the entire NFL it's Mahomes. He's going to be amazing. I hope his receivers drop every pass.
> Very few super bowls have had a 'known' victor at the start.
Except for every Super Bowl from 1984-1996, lol. The NFC Championship *was* the Super Bowl back in those days, and only 2/13 Super Bowls were decided by less than two scores.
no, they do (jake moody), but i think there's a difference between getting your doors blown off by the ravens, and being a field goal away from winning against a great defense that any nfl kicker should make
and before anyone says it, yes, the niners deserved to lose and i'm not taking anything away from the browns, who had to play in the exact same weather with an xfl quarterback
The Niners defense made PJ Walker look like Randall Cunningham. Yea, it wasn't Brock's or the offenses best game but the defense looked worthless for big chunks of the game (They did tighten up a bit near the end of both halves).
That was an especially "any given Sunday" kind of Sunday for the Niners. It happens. Like when the Chiefs lost to the Raiders. Or was it like when they lost to the Broncos? Maybe it was when they lost to Detroit and Green Bay, both of whom just lost to San Francisco in the playoffs? ;)
i agree. one of those moments where these kind of stats don’t matter. the game is just different in the playoffs and making it this far really just shows the team can hang.
The 9ers not only played a brutal stretch of away games, against multiple teams coming off of bye but only played 3 non playoff teams this season counting this year and last. The 9ers also are the first team to beat every NFC team that made the playoffs this year, in one season. They havnt lost when Purdy and Trent both started and finish a game. Also the 4 games they lost this season they had 14 turnovers.
Jfc that's a lot of turnovers. Any idea how many we had total for the season?
Edit looked it up, 18 total for the regular season. 14 turnovers across 4 games is insane.
They also had the last amount of rest in that stretch. They played several teams coming off byes and when the niners finally got a bye, they played a team also coming off a bye. They changed a good deal of the defense scheme during the bye and got Chase young, who is decent and a good rotation piece.
>They also had the last amount of rest in that stretch.
The 49ers had the worst "rest disparity" out of all NFL teams on the regular season as a whole (scroll down to "rest disparity" [here](https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/2023-nfl-schedule-grid-regular-season/)). Their opponents had a combined _20 extra rest days_ than them.
Because the 3 seed is a down year for them just as it was for us during our run. And Mahomes (nor anybody) can't do it all himself as seen in the Bucs SB loss and their losses earlier this year. If his receivers were going to continue to drop critical passes and Kelce was going to look like a shell of himself they're a very different team.
Sounds like Matt Nagy football all right. I know he isn't the playcaller but the lack of discipline during the Chiefs' worst stretches this year felt almost identical to the Bears' offense when he was here just with a better QB
True, true, but what about the SB kickoff time/place making the game an Aquarius with Scorpio rising and the moon in Pisces? I think we can all agree that’s bad for the Chiefs.
And for every game where 9 out of 11 starters for KC eat a banana with peanut butter for breakfast, they’re 11-2 against the spread after playing a team that they played between 4-7 days ago but only when 2/5 of the opposing starters also ate a banana with peanut butter for breakfast. On top of that, if the combined total of sneezes and farts since lunch time exceeds 25 for the highest fantasy point scoring player on each team, but does not exceed 15 for the opposing team’s starter, they’re 9-1 against the spread. Just some stats for you
1. I love how you start off this narrative dismissing Dallas because of their play road but don't acknowledge the Browns superior (league-leading) play at home.
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2. YPG isn't even the best metric to use. Points, not yards is what matters. They've played a top-20 points defense 9 times, went 6-3. And worth noting is that Purdy suffered a concussion in the Vikings game. They averaged 26.7 PPG in those games^(2).
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||PPG All|Rank||
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|BAL|16.5|1st|19|
|DAL|18.5|5th|42|
|PIT|19.1|T:6th|30|
|TB|19.1|T:6th|27|
|GB|20.6|10th|24|
|CLE|21.3 \[16\]^(1)|13th \[1st\]|17|
|MIN|21.3|13th|17|
|JAX|21.8|17th|34|
|LAR|22.2|19th|30^(2)|
^(1)CLE = just 16 PPG Allowed at home, 29.6 PPG on the road
^(2)Not counting week 17 when SF rested starters, including Purdy
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3) DVOA is a far better indicator than raw stats. It has your schedule baked into it. For example, DVOA had the 10-1 Eagles as the 9th best team in the NFL. Even tho every power ranking had them at #1.
|Per DVOA|DEF DVOA|Rank|SF Pts|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|BAL|\-23.30%|1st|19|
|CLE|\-20.70%|2nd|17|
|DAL|\-8.70%|5th|42|
|PIT|\-8.00%|6th|30|
|**KC**|**-5.00%**|7th|\--|
|JAX|\-4.20%|10th|34|
|MIN|\-3.90%|11th|17|
|DET|\-3.20%|13th|34|
|TB|\-2.40%|14th|27|
The 49ers played 8 top-20 DVOA defenses. They went 5-3 and averaged 27.5 PPG. That would be good for the 5th best offense in the NFL this season.
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4) [According to the man that invented the stat](https://twitter.com/ASchatzNFL/status/1744378302528119256), the 49ers were the #6 DVOA offense all time through 17 weeks (when they clinched the #1 seed).
>Trying to be as non biased as possible, my analysis is that the 49ers excellent regular season #1 overall performance has come largely against teams with poor defenses, and the team has struggled against teams with better defenses in their limited time playing against them
Which is completely, entirely false. Against top-tier Points, or more importantly DVOA defenses, the 49ers were still an elite offense.
To be fair, the Niners lost in Cleveland because Trent Williams, CMC and Deebo all got injured and left + it was pouring and would’ve won if Moody hadn’t missed the game winner FG. They were able to effectively move the ball against the Ravens but some costly turnovers and bad luck kept them down and the ball in the Ravens hands.
Moody missed two FGs with the second occurring as time expired. A loss is a loss, but Cleveland got damn lucky because the kicker missing multiple times isn’t really the kind of thing you can game plan for.
Totally, just wanted to highlight that context is important here especially since OP is pushing the narrative that SF struggles against good defenses based on record.
Me too. Just saying, this stat looks a whole lot different if Moody does his job. Speaking of, he’s probably my biggest concern heading into the Super Bowl.
Man I'm going to be shitting bricks if Moody goes out for a game winning go ahead kick. If it's a tie game okay, but if it's win or lose with time expiring I'll be sweating it. Hope he's on an ice water IV before the game
Just want to throw out that saying he threw 5 picks between Detroit and Baltimore is a bit disingenuous.
He threw 4 in one game. Lumping it in with another game to create an average is a stretch.
Realistically when it comes to defenses there are the Ravens, then a cavernous gap, then everyone else, yes including the #2 defense.
Or… maybe they just have trouble against the AFC North brand of football? They lost 4 times with their starters, 3 of which were to the AFC North, and the Minnesota game where Brock was concussed and Wilks called a zero blitz before the half.
The 49ers have lost 4 of 5 games to North teams, they played a 1 possession game 6 times, 4 of them being North teams. The extra teams in those stats are the Rams (1st game was one score after a last second FG covering the spread by the Rams & 2nd game was a one score loss with our backups)
We also moved the ball really well against the Ravens. Despite 4 turnovers, we lost by only two scores. The Cleveland game was lost by a missed FG.
That's all interesting, but if the takeaway is that the 49ers *can't* win against good defenses, then you didn't watch the games at all.
The beautiful thing about the Super Bowl is you get to see the best match up against the best. The Chiefs have a great defense and the Niners have a great offense. Both units are gonna trade blows. On the other side of the ball, you've got the Chiefs offense and Niners defense which both seem to have a few more holes but are filled with veteran stars who can change the game on a dime.
Throw the regular season stats out the window. Grab your snacks and enjoy the game.
49ers SOS was .509, chiefs was
.481
49ers went 1-2 against the NFL best record Ravens, NFC 2 seed Cowboys and the best defense in the NFL 11-6 Browns. Is this some hard hitting analysis that playing really good teams is hard?
Use DVOA ranks over raw number stats.
Sample sizes in nfl seasons are already pretty small to try to gain anything actionable, when you starting trying to make splits to even smaller samples, you run the risk of having confounding effects swamp your correlations.
Did the 49ers lose to Cleveland because they have a top defense, because Brock Purdy seems to play noticeably worse in the rain, or because Deebo got hurt and was out and CMC and Trent Williams got hurt and we’re less effective, or was it all three?
I get the desire to try to predict what’s going to happen and I definitely get the desire to give yourself fan optimism that your guys are gonna win (I don’t wager but if I did, I’d be on KC and I’m a 49er fan since the good old days) but this kinda stuff doesn’t really mean anything predictive.
I agree the 49ers play off schedule was much easier. They just had to beat the Lions and the Packers. Could you imagine if they lost to them? I mean, its not like they are the Chiefs.
Well I’m up 5k betting the money line in the Bills and Ravens games. I’ve got 1k of that on it right now but we’ll see what happens closer to game day. Could end up being more
Chiefs the same team that lost to the Raiders at home by 6? And lost to Denver by 15? Also lost to the Eagles at home and we all know how good they ended up being.
Great analysis but not sure it means much. Both teams just beat who was in front of them when they had to.
Divisional games are always real fucky though. Back in the Colts 2006 (🥲) Super Bowl winning season, they went 12-4. They lost to a decent but mostly mid Dallas Cowboys team then finished their season with three divisional losses to go 3-3 in the AFCS. The biggest one was a blowout loss to the Jags, where MJD and Fred Taylor ran for nearly 400 yards.
The narrative leading up to the playoffs was that the Colts couldn’t stop the run and they’d get annihilated by Priest Holmes and the Chiefs rushing game. Bob Sanders comes back and the defense goes into overdrive, shutting down the run games of KC (44 yards rushing) and Baltimore (83).
So I wouldn’t put almost any stock into divisional games. Teams and players are often very familiar with each other and they often prepare the hardest against the top dog.
I mean I also mentioned that SF is undefeated against bottom half rushing teams which includes KC. I'm not trying to shit talk the niners it's just some discussion points I noticed while I was crunching numbers at work
I mean, what you are saying is that if Mahomes has a perfect game the Chiefs could win. That’s true. But if all it takes are two small common mistakes you are also making the point that the Chiefs are beatable if the ball bounces the way it often does in games. For anyone.
The fact that you have chiefs flare makes this hard to take your facts seriously.
You lost to the raiders. At home…. Past games mean nothing. I’d say good luck in the Super Bowl but I really hate your team.
Here’s to 52-13! Go niners
Every team that makes it to the playoffs has a record of 0-0 for their first play off game. Make it to the super bowl after 3-0, you're back to 0-0. Luck matters more than stats.
Most of the NFC teams suck. Don’t blame the Niners. At least they’ve beaten the better teams they’ve faced unlike my Cowboys. I hope they beat the Chiefs.
Stats about 49ers vs Chiefs will be plastered everywhere leading up to SB, but the only measurement not quantifiable is Brock’s confidence in himself. Brock got this!
There are interesting parallels between Ravens vs 49ers and Chiefs vs Ravens.
49ers moved the ball up and down the field against the Ravens defense but were undone by turnovers. The Ravens moved the ball against the Chiefs defense, but subtract even one turnover and it's likely a tie game that goes to OT.
I think it will come down to which team can avoid big mistakes.
Great analysis. Thx for putting in the research time, OP. It sure seems like this is the way the game will go, barring turnovers, penalties, injuries or other weirdness
People like to write long BS but realize that none of that matters in the post season. Eli would agreed as he beat that 16-1 Patriot ass that everyone and I mean 99% of people believe were going undefeated. So good job wasting time Op you and Romo on the same level of glaze
If KC's defense can hold San Fran to 13 or under. It will be one of the 4 most impressive playoff runs in history. If that happens and they win, then I think this is a run for the legacy of Spags. He's already in rare air with having 3 titles as a coordinator. 4 would further separate himself.
Biggest mismatch in this game is the coaching
Reid/Spags > Shanny (he’s very good)/Wilks (who I think is ass and not good in the NFC championship where Shanny is like wtf are we doing)
Chiefs also barely beat the Bills with a defense missing multiple all pros and fewer starters play than not. I think the chiefs will be in big trouble Sunday.
Absolutely not, you guys have a great team. I just think it could point to the SF offense coming out flat against a rank of defense they are not accustomed to and frequently struggle against and needing to adjust, which Brock Purdy and the offense have already successfully done in the past 2 playoff games.
That would be 7 more points than the KC defense has allowed in the past 34 games. KC has only allowed more than 30 points twice in the past 2 season, once against Tom Brady and once in the Superbowl
The Chiefs have a good defense and the niners are unlikely to score than many points considering they already lost to the #1 and #3 defenses. If the Niners win it will be about shutting down mahomes, running CMC/Purdy getting some good scrambles like last week and winning a close game.
I doubt that 1 game has that much affect to drop teams over the course of a season.
but overall - i think the bigger point here is why the fuck are we using Yards/Game as the metric? Use points per game....
Losing one or two games against San Fransisco is not going to tank your rankings that much in a 17 game season. If you moved every team SF beat up 5 spots they would only add 2 wins against top half teams
Niners fans in the comments adding a whole lot of context and caveats to counteract these stats and yet will get pissed off when you do the same thing to their favorable stats.
Ever since beating the Niners in the playoffs last season the Eagles are so damn whiney whenever the Niners are mentioned. It’s a weird complex. You’ve always been the worst fan base to deal with but now the whiniest too? Christ man.
The Chiefs are going to win the Super Bowl. Maybe you’ll be calm after that?
Some good homework there. The good thing about the Super Bowl is that all of these stats are gonna go out the window most likely. Teams are either gonna play better or worse than they did during the regular season. Experience and nerves also play a huge part in the big game. I see SF pulling a page out of the Bills’ playbook and running, running, running…..something the Ravens should have done since KC’s D has a hard time against the run. That’s the only thing I feel confident about saying for this SB. Everything else is unknown.
[удалено]
Oh I definitely think they will. 100%. They won’t make the same mistake the Ravens did.
tbf i think this narrative gets overblown a bit tbf. kc dared baltimore to throw by stacking their box and playing man in the secondary, and it worked early. they were averaging 2-3 yards per carry at the first half, even with two explosive runs iirc. then kc got up two scores and looked like their offense was rolling, and baltimore didn’t really get a chance to run it late. obviously baltimore’s game plan could’ve been better, but if you listen to harbaugh talk about it even he mentioned their game plan getting away from them bc of the situation. kc executed their game plan well and limited one of baltimore’s strengths long enough that the game situation took it away late. i think it’s dismissive of both baltimore and kc’s coaching staffs to just assume the ravens’ game plan was to go away from their strengths.
they ran the ball on designed handoffs I think exactly six times throughout the entire game despite having I think the best or second best rushing attack in the regular season. KCs defence schemed really well against that but its still really poor playcalling.
The Ravens rushed the ball with Edwards a grand total of 3 times. His rushing was responsible for almost 1/6 of their total offensive production in the regular season. They absolutely went away from their strengths on offense.
his running was entirely unsuccessful, and none of their rushing schemes showed any promise. it’s not like they didn’t run it early. they just couldn’t find any success in doing so, and then they were down two scores. you’re not running your way back into a game down two scores against an offense that scored with ease three times in the first half. their staff has pretty blatantly said they had a game plan to run, but the situations took it away quickly. like mike tyson said, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face. it just seems like lazy analysis to say baltimore never planned to run it, in part bc it assumes their offensive game plan never changed from being tied 0-0 to down 17-7.
20 yards in 3 carries is not “entirely unsuccessful”. They put the ball in the hands of their RBs 6 times rushing. It’s silly to even suggest they gave an honest effort there.
> his running was entirely unsuccessful, and none of their rushing schemes showed any promise. it’s not like they didn’t run it early. I don’t think we watched the same game. Edwards went 15 yards on his first carry, early in the game. It’s exactly that they didn’t run it early. The RBs had 6 carries for the whole game. 3 in the first half. I don’t know how you could look at that and say “well they tried but it didn’t work.” That’s just not trying. You suggesting that was a valid attempt at trying to run is gross misrepresentation. I don’t disagree with the rest of what you said though. The staff knew the game plan, then threw it out because they thought they were about to get into a shootout. No one knew the defense would pitch as close as a shutout as you can get against Mahomes after the first two drives.
Eh it was Lamar's fault he didn't run. There were a lot of times that game he could have took off, but someone hammered into his head this year he has to be a passer so he kept just scrambling side to side hoping someone would open up instead of using his own legs.
this is obviously pure conjecture and fan theory, but i think lamar’s lost a step and it’s made him a bit more hesitant to run. this season he had by far his lowest attempted scrambles and his yards per attempt were down, too. on the run he broke free (4th and 1) and went down early in ways we haven’t seen in the past, too. last year, he missed a big chunk of the season with a knee injury and this year his rushing stats are down across the board. it’s obviously just a hypothesis, but i don’t think he’s the same runner or has the same confidence he had in the past.
He might not be as good as he used to but he still had plenty of first down runs this year, and could have had multiple against you guys because there were a lot of times there was a hole in front of him when you were crashing the pocket but he decided to run backworks to extend the play instead of forward for some reason.
It's kinda crazy because Lamar is still one of the best runners in the league even if he has lost a step. Sure don't be as aggressive maybe if you're not as confident but if they're giving you the scramble gotta take what is given
he definitely could’ve done better as a runner. i don’t disagree there. he just never looked confident. obviously my feeling through a tv screen from hundreds of miles away means nothing, but watching him turn to find sneed instead of trying to turn it up a gear on that 4th and 1 run actually brought some relief to me. i’ve never seen him turn behind him to find an approaching defender like that before. and if he really wasn’t confident in his running ability (again, pure conjecture) it makes sense why he didn’t run. if you’re already worried about someone running you down from behind, you’re going to be significantly more hesitant to take someone head on.
I actually thought the same thing until I watched a good amount of his runs this year. He still has similar speed but he changed the way he’s running this year. He runs almost in a protective kinda way so that he doesn’t take nearly as many risks of injury so it’s kinda like he’s tip toeing around and he knows when to go down which helps since he didn’t get injured this year.
Exactly. He probably realizes it now if started running early those passes would open up better. Some of Chiefs Defense was biting hard on his reactions several plays didn't take advantage.
I don't know why people don't understand this. They chose to pass against those sets and struggled. But they thought they had a better chance in those situations than running.
Don't underestimate Shanahan lol
They’ll also lean on Purdy legs
You mean late-round backup caliber game manager system QB Brock Purdy’s legs? Those legs?
This guy medias.
I haven't seen him in shorts to judge if his legs are purdy or not.
We’ve over used him all year even when not necessary Therefore the shanny out smarting himself in the playoffs move is 50/50 that hell only run with the backups because no one will see it coming!
This is my fear... now is not the tike to "prove" you are smarter than the other team. Just win the game.
>tike Fuck them kids
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Ugh lmao 100% Shanahan is gonna outsmart himself
I'm praying that there isn't a 1st and goal game winning situation on the 6th yardline where... Kyle chooses to pass for 4 downs, only to end the game with a broken pocket on Purdy with a hero toss to Aiyuk (where there's an uncalled defensive holding), and 9ers lose 30-34. Ugh. To be fair, Kyle has had good redzone play calling this year, but between the NFCCG Seahawks loss & the Ravens Superbowl loss, I just feel like we're fated to see similar tragedy all over again. RUN CMC WILL WIN IT.
Unless they pull a Baltimore and try to get Purdy to play hero ball all game, in which case, the 49ers get stomped.
Don't know how Purdy's nerves will be but he has much better arm talent then Lamar and better receivers so I think besides the O Line they will do better then the Ravens no matter the situation on offense. Its up to that D to lock down Mahomes which is the worrisome part.
I dont even think Purdy cares about playing hero ball. Hes not Lamar and he doesn’t wanna be
CMC 2 TDs is one of the best possible props out there
Two weeks to prepare is a huge game changer for any NFL team, especially the top two in the league. They can come out with completely different looks.
I totally agree with that.
Didn’t the ravens not run because the chiefs dc decided to stack the box? I think I remember hearing Niners don’t care about how many you have in the box and will try and pound it.
Yes. That’s part of it. But the other part was Lamar Jackson second guessed himself and also decided not to run. It was a few things.
CMC is a cheat code. Hes like an octopus. He can push through an 11 man stack if he gets even the tiniest opening.
Not really true. People can’t see the logic in the Ravens underperforming offensively in the playoffs; it’s almost like facing better defenses than you see all season might impact your success.
i mean, the ravens torched a bunch of top defenses all season long. its not like the AFCCG was the first time they played a good team
Think people overlook that the Chiefs really didn’t move ball versus the Ravens. 17 points isn’t going to cut it versus a 49ers offense. No idea why Lamar didn’t take off multiple times, several easy running lanes he ignored to make a pass instead. I like the homework myself but as any stat, there is a story and reason for it that stats alone do not tell. 49ers offense being banged up leaving the defense on the field, Purdy playing with a head injury that obviously made him see the game less clear. 5 weeks the 49ers had the opposing team coming off a bye week, more fresh during the period Deebo, Trent, CMC and Purdy all banged up. 49ers also don’t see the Chiefs the same way the AFC does. They have the same pedigree of players, coaches and mindset.
>Chiefs really didn’t move ball versus the Ravens. The first half they only had 1 play for negative yards (-2 run) against Baltimores top defense. how is positive yards on basically every play not moving the ball? Kc also put the 17 up in 1 half. The second half was all about clock control up by 10. Look what happened when Bal got 3, Kc marched right doe the field and into scoring position. >17 points isn’t going to cut it versus a 49ers offense Bal and SF averaged roughly around the same amount before that 10pt game against KC... SF was at their healthiest against Det last week and they are so lucky to be in the superbowl after that mess of a game. Hell they were so lucky to even be in the game AGAINST Det and very well could have been beat by a rebuilding Gb team. AFC teams are just overall better than NFC teams right now. I'm shocked SF is even favored at all and I would not be shocked if KC wins by a td if not double digets.
Shoukd they run that much?
If the 49ers are able to run early, it opens up the middle of the field on play action and that's where the purd eats
Yep. Bills did it and were very successful. Yes, the Bills lost, but it was because they got behind and had to pass. If the Niners have the lead or are only a score behind, the run game should still be a priority. If the Niners get too far behind, then they will have to pass more. But I foresee a close game.
Almost everything had to go the Bills' way that game for them to even have a chance to tie it with 3 minutes left. They won the TO battle, they won time of possession, they had more yards, they recovered both of their fumbles, they had more first downs, they converted more on 3rd down, they had two 4th down conversions, etc. What it came down to was **efficiency**; Chiefs scored 27 points on 38 plays excluding kneeldowns (.71 points/play) while the Bills scored 24 on 78 plays (.31 points/play). Running the ball is inherently less efficient than passing, so you have to be *really* sure that you can stop the Chiefs offense from scoring quickly if you want to be run-heavy. I'm not saying it's impossible to do, but it's like trying to beat the Warriors by driving to the basket. You might get 2 points on 50% of your shots, but if they're getting 3 on only 35% of theirs, you're still losing.
I feel like points per drive is a better measure.
Same could be said for the chiefs against the ravens who gaffed at the goal line and threw an interception in the end zone.
> I see SF pulling a page out of the Bills’ playbook and running, running, running…..something the Ravens should have done since KC’s D has a hard time against the run. Spags practically dares teams to run throughout the first half, and if they keep with it in the second half, he adjusts. Chiefs have great linebackers and the best tackling secondary in the league, he just doesn't use them against the run until he has to. I'm glad you mentioned the Bills, since they're one of the few teams that stuck with the run through the game. 22 carries for 124 yards (5.6/carry) and 2 TDs in the first half, Spagnuolo made his adjustments, 17 carries for 58 yards (3.4 yards/carry) and 0 TDs in the second half. To add to that, the Bills' commitment to the run *killed* 2 of their 3 drives in the 4th quarter (14 yards on 8 runs) when they absolutely needed a score. Maybe the Ravens should have ran more, but I have a feeling that it didn't matter. Chiefs got into scoring range in 3 plays on their final drive, they were just milking the clock and letting the defense play lights-out the entire second half. You need to execute on passing plays to have a shot against the Chiefs, and that's the strongest part of their defense.
Spags has done a stellar job this season of adjusting. In past seasons, he didn’t do as good a job and just resorted to his old ways of calling the defense. Spags has grown as a DC which is awesome. We do have the best LB’s and secondary in the NFL. I am definitely not worried about them. The talent is amazing.
Then how did the Raiders, Packers and Broncos beat them?
Its not like we have one of the best RBs in the league or anything. Christian’s legs will be dust after the game. He wants it bad too
I agree. I actually think CMC should be the season MVP. The guy is a workhorse.
From my favorite 49ers film analyst **JonnydelsFA** >The best way I can describe Spagnuplo's fronts? Precise chaos. The presentations stress OL assignments in both the run and pass game, and the potential for extra rushers gives the front a lot of 1v1 opportunities with good leverage. Kyle Shanahan needs to fix his slow starts
Yeah slow starts are deadly against Spags, because at least twice this year he's allowed 17 points in the first half and less than 7 in the second.
IMO a much better metric for the strength of a defense is DVOA. And of the top half of defenses, San Francisco beat: Pittsburgh, Dallas, ~~Minnesota~~, Jacksonville, and Tampa Bay. Detroit also counts here. Just something worth considering. I still think KC’s pass defense is going to be a mountain for them to get over, but Brock Purdy and the 49ers offense more capable against higher tier defenses than we’re giving them credit for. On the other side of that, the top half of defenses that KC defeated: Jacksonville, NY Jets, Minnesota, Vegas, and New England. Then Buffalo and Baltimore in the playoffs. Honestly both teams have a better resume on offense than I think this post would give them credit for. And both teams are top 10 on defense themselves. So this ought to be an all time great game Edit: correction SF lost to Minnesota
agree with everything else, but we lost against minnesota: purdy got his head slammed into the ground and threw 2 picks late, cmc fumbled on the 2 yard line, and i think moody missed a kick too oh, also kirk lit us the fuck up without jj it was not our proudest moment
Whoops. Will correct now lol
It was definitely OUR proudest moment lol
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Good chance he would've. He was leading in every volume passing stat.
i respect that (and kirk)
Yeah in a bummer of a season you take what you can get haha.
One of those picks cannot even remotely be in Brock. Receiver basically let the back have it. Liked HANDED it to him.
Prior to the playoffs, I think almost every loss the 49ers had this year, Moody missed a kick in.
Also won every game in the playoffs he missed a kick in.
Also gave up a stupid 60 yd TD because for some reason Wilks dialed up a zero blitz on 3rd down at the end of the half
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Hell no. Grandpa can barley kick a 40 yarder now.
The chiefs will play single high man and jam the fuck out of our WRs It's up to ba and deebo to be the man beaters they are lol Edit: forgot deebo
BA and Aiyuk? 🤔
Aiyuk's been cloned, there's two of them now, instead of Aiyuk #1 and Aiyuk #2 they're called Aiyuk(OG) and BA. Good luck KC!
If the Ravens' CCG collapse taught us anything, it's that the stats on the day matter a hell of a lot less than the mental game. I think KC has the edge there (see: Ravens, Bills), but you never really know. Very few super bowls have had a 'known' victor at the start.
And even if they do they still have upsets as in the Undefeated Patriots vs the Giants
I think you mean ~~Un~~defeated Patriots
Truly, no one knows anything. I think of the Eagles this year as a perfect example. Before we played them they were 10-1 and they had just beaten the Cowboys, Chiefs, and Bills. They were coming off of a Super Bowl run where they barely lost after putting up a near flawless offensive performance. They weren't blowing teams out of the water but how do you argue against those results? I thought they were a juggernaut. I was terrified of going back in to Philly against that team. NO ONE could have seriously predicted the outcome of that game or how their season flipped afterwards. That was one of the most mind-exploding experiences of my football following life. It goes to show that I can't predict shit so I don't even try. If there is a "sure thing" in the entire NFL it's Mahomes. He's going to be amazing. I hope his receivers drop every pass.
And people are acting like the 49ers have no experience here, I mean a lot of these guys were playing in the Superbowl 4 years ago.
> Very few super bowls have had a 'known' victor at the start. Except for every Super Bowl from 1984-1996, lol. The NFC Championship *was* the Super Bowl back in those days, and only 2/13 Super Bowls were decided by less than two scores.
Pats/Bears was the first one that came to my mind as an exception, lol. I should have said 'modern'
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Not to mention we were a missed field goal away from winning the Cleveland game.
Not to mention a ridiculous fumble inside their own 20 that was overturned before halftime.
And the Browns go ahead drive should've ended on a failed third down but got extended from a ticky-tacky foul
Non-foul. It was a blown call
Good thing missed field goals don't happen in the playoffs then right?
no, they do (jake moody), but i think there's a difference between getting your doors blown off by the ravens, and being a field goal away from winning against a great defense that any nfl kicker should make and before anyone says it, yes, the niners deserved to lose and i'm not taking anything away from the browns, who had to play in the exact same weather with an xfl quarterback
I will be pleasantly surprised if Moody makes his field goals
I mean did we "deserve" to lose? Idk but the game absolutely should have been over no question until they threw a god awful flag on 3rd down
that call was terrible and shouldn't have happened but when you play against pj walker, then any loss is deserved regardless of how you lost
The Niners defense made PJ Walker look like Randall Cunningham. Yea, it wasn't Brock's or the offenses best game but the defense looked worthless for big chunks of the game (They did tighten up a bit near the end of both halves).
That was an especially "any given Sunday" kind of Sunday for the Niners. It happens. Like when the Chiefs lost to the Raiders. Or was it like when they lost to the Broncos? Maybe it was when they lost to Detroit and Green Bay, both of whom just lost to San Francisco in the playoffs? ;)
Sorry for your eternal pain Vikings friend.
i agree. one of those moments where these kind of stats don’t matter. the game is just different in the playoffs and making it this far really just shows the team can hang.
not much they can do about that other than win convincingly like they have been all season
Pack it up boys, no use playing next week
The 9ers not only played a brutal stretch of away games, against multiple teams coming off of bye but only played 3 non playoff teams this season counting this year and last. The 9ers also are the first team to beat every NFC team that made the playoffs this year, in one season. They havnt lost when Purdy and Trent both started and finish a game. Also the 4 games they lost this season they had 14 turnovers.
Jfc that's a lot of turnovers. Any idea how many we had total for the season? Edit looked it up, 18 total for the regular season. 14 turnovers across 4 games is insane.
They also had the last amount of rest in that stretch. They played several teams coming off byes and when the niners finally got a bye, they played a team also coming off a bye. They changed a good deal of the defense scheme during the bye and got Chase young, who is decent and a good rotation piece.
>They also had the last amount of rest in that stretch. The 49ers had the worst "rest disparity" out of all NFL teams on the regular season as a whole (scroll down to "rest disparity" [here](https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/2023-nfl-schedule-grid-regular-season/)). Their opponents had a combined _20 extra rest days_ than them.
Yup, which is why I laughed when the media punidiots started using that to excuse the eagles...
But also, why tf were people acting like this was a “down year” for the Chiefs if they have the #2 defense and a healthy Mahomes?
Because their offense sucked (for them) for most of the year.
Because the 3 seed is a down year for them just as it was for us during our run. And Mahomes (nor anybody) can't do it all himself as seen in the Bucs SB loss and their losses earlier this year. If his receivers were going to continue to drop critical passes and Kelce was going to look like a shell of himself they're a very different team.
Because it was: 6 losses Worst point differential of Mahomes era Lowest seed since 2017
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Sounds like Matt Nagy football all right. I know he isn't the playcaller but the lack of discipline during the Chiefs' worst stretches this year felt almost identical to the Bears' offense when he was here just with a better QB
Soon as I heard Reid with 2 weeks to prepare we should’ve just went to draft study
In the end none of that matters. You win or you don’t.
This coupled with the moon phases being in the Chiefs favor bodes very well. Very well indeed.
True, true, but what about the SB kickoff time/place making the game an Aquarius with Scorpio rising and the moon in Pisces? I think we can all agree that’s bad for the Chiefs.
Also the Lions logo being blue, since the 49ers have won the Super Bowl every time the beat a blue team in the NFCCG
Not during a leap year!
May Leap Day William shine upon the Chiefs
And for every game where 9 out of 11 starters for KC eat a banana with peanut butter for breakfast, they’re 11-2 against the spread after playing a team that they played between 4-7 days ago but only when 2/5 of the opposing starters also ate a banana with peanut butter for breakfast. On top of that, if the combined total of sneezes and farts since lunch time exceeds 25 for the highest fantasy point scoring player on each team, but does not exceed 15 for the opposing team’s starter, they’re 9-1 against the spread. Just some stats for you
1. I love how you start off this narrative dismissing Dallas because of their play road but don't acknowledge the Browns superior (league-leading) play at home. --- 2. YPG isn't even the best metric to use. Points, not yards is what matters. They've played a top-20 points defense 9 times, went 6-3. And worth noting is that Purdy suffered a concussion in the Vikings game. They averaged 26.7 PPG in those games^(2). --- ||PPG All|Rank|| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |BAL|16.5|1st|19| |DAL|18.5|5th|42| |PIT|19.1|T:6th|30| |TB|19.1|T:6th|27| |GB|20.6|10th|24| |CLE|21.3 \[16\]^(1)|13th \[1st\]|17| |MIN|21.3|13th|17| |JAX|21.8|17th|34| |LAR|22.2|19th|30^(2)| ^(1)CLE = just 16 PPG Allowed at home, 29.6 PPG on the road ^(2)Not counting week 17 when SF rested starters, including Purdy --- 3) DVOA is a far better indicator than raw stats. It has your schedule baked into it. For example, DVOA had the 10-1 Eagles as the 9th best team in the NFL. Even tho every power ranking had them at #1. |Per DVOA|DEF DVOA|Rank|SF Pts| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |BAL|\-23.30%|1st|19| |CLE|\-20.70%|2nd|17| |DAL|\-8.70%|5th|42| |PIT|\-8.00%|6th|30| |**KC**|**-5.00%**|7th|\--| |JAX|\-4.20%|10th|34| |MIN|\-3.90%|11th|17| |DET|\-3.20%|13th|34| |TB|\-2.40%|14th|27| The 49ers played 8 top-20 DVOA defenses. They went 5-3 and averaged 27.5 PPG. That would be good for the 5th best offense in the NFL this season. --- 4) [According to the man that invented the stat](https://twitter.com/ASchatzNFL/status/1744378302528119256), the 49ers were the #6 DVOA offense all time through 17 weeks (when they clinched the #1 seed). >Trying to be as non biased as possible, my analysis is that the 49ers excellent regular season #1 overall performance has come largely against teams with poor defenses, and the team has struggled against teams with better defenses in their limited time playing against them Which is completely, entirely false. Against top-tier Points, or more importantly DVOA defenses, the 49ers were still an elite offense.
To be fair, the Niners lost in Cleveland because Trent Williams, CMC and Deebo all got injured and left + it was pouring and would’ve won if Moody hadn’t missed the game winner FG. They were able to effectively move the ball against the Ravens but some costly turnovers and bad luck kept them down and the ball in the Ravens hands.
Moody missed two FGs with the second occurring as time expired. A loss is a loss, but Cleveland got damn lucky because the kicker missing multiple times isn’t really the kind of thing you can game plan for.
Totally, just wanted to highlight that context is important here especially since OP is pushing the narrative that SF struggles against good defenses based on record.
Me too. Just saying, this stat looks a whole lot different if Moody does his job. Speaking of, he’s probably my biggest concern heading into the Super Bowl.
Man I'm going to be shitting bricks if Moody goes out for a game winning go ahead kick. If it's a tie game okay, but if it's win or lose with time expiring I'll be sweating it. Hope he's on an ice water IV before the game
moody is probably the person i'd trust the least in this game, besides steve wilks and maybe chase young
Moody will either lose the game for us or nail three 55+ yarders. No in between, leaning heavily towards the former.
Or the defense steps up and Brock plays to his regular season numbers and Moody doesn't matter at all
I wouldn’t mind Moodys only contribution being 6 XPs but that seems unlikely
Browns and Bengals were coming off bye weeks too
Just want to throw out that saying he threw 5 picks between Detroit and Baltimore is a bit disingenuous. He threw 4 in one game. Lumping it in with another game to create an average is a stretch. Realistically when it comes to defenses there are the Ravens, then a cavernous gap, then everyone else, yes including the #2 defense.
Or… maybe they just have trouble against the AFC North brand of football? They lost 4 times with their starters, 3 of which were to the AFC North, and the Minnesota game where Brock was concussed and Wilks called a zero blitz before the half.
The 49ers have lost 4 of 5 games to North teams, they played a 1 possession game 6 times, 4 of them being North teams. The extra teams in those stats are the Rams (1st game was one score after a last second FG covering the spread by the Rams & 2nd game was a one score loss with our backups)
We also moved the ball really well against the Ravens. Despite 4 turnovers, we lost by only two scores. The Cleveland game was lost by a missed FG. That's all interesting, but if the takeaway is that the 49ers *can't* win against good defenses, then you didn't watch the games at all. The beautiful thing about the Super Bowl is you get to see the best match up against the best. The Chiefs have a great defense and the Niners have a great offense. Both units are gonna trade blows. On the other side of the ball, you've got the Chiefs offense and Niners defense which both seem to have a few more holes but are filled with veteran stars who can change the game on a dime. Throw the regular season stats out the window. Grab your snacks and enjoy the game.
49ers SOS was .509, chiefs was .481 49ers went 1-2 against the NFL best record Ravens, NFC 2 seed Cowboys and the best defense in the NFL 11-6 Browns. Is this some hard hitting analysis that playing really good teams is hard? Use DVOA ranks over raw number stats.
Sample sizes in nfl seasons are already pretty small to try to gain anything actionable, when you starting trying to make splits to even smaller samples, you run the risk of having confounding effects swamp your correlations. Did the 49ers lose to Cleveland because they have a top defense, because Brock Purdy seems to play noticeably worse in the rain, or because Deebo got hurt and was out and CMC and Trent Williams got hurt and we’re less effective, or was it all three? I get the desire to try to predict what’s going to happen and I definitely get the desire to give yourself fan optimism that your guys are gonna win (I don’t wager but if I did, I’d be on KC and I’m a 49er fan since the good old days) but this kinda stuff doesn’t really mean anything predictive.
I agree the 49ers play off schedule was much easier. They just had to beat the Lions and the Packers. Could you imagine if they lost to them? I mean, its not like they are the Chiefs.
So....... how much you betting on the Chiefs???
Well I’m up 5k betting the money line in the Bills and Ravens games. I’ve got 1k of that on it right now but we’ll see what happens closer to game day. Could end up being more
Who cares, it’s one game. Anything can happen.
I guess that's that. Cancel the sb and make it swift concert instead. Data said so
Chiefs the same team that lost to the Raiders at home by 6? And lost to Denver by 15? Also lost to the Eagles at home and we all know how good they ended up being. Great analysis but not sure it means much. Both teams just beat who was in front of them when they had to.
Divisional games are always real fucky though. Back in the Colts 2006 (🥲) Super Bowl winning season, they went 12-4. They lost to a decent but mostly mid Dallas Cowboys team then finished their season with three divisional losses to go 3-3 in the AFCS. The biggest one was a blowout loss to the Jags, where MJD and Fred Taylor ran for nearly 400 yards. The narrative leading up to the playoffs was that the Colts couldn’t stop the run and they’d get annihilated by Priest Holmes and the Chiefs rushing game. Bob Sanders comes back and the defense goes into overdrive, shutting down the run games of KC (44 yards rushing) and Baltimore (83). So I wouldn’t put almost any stock into divisional games. Teams and players are often very familiar with each other and they often prepare the hardest against the top dog.
I mean I also mentioned that SF is undefeated against bottom half rushing teams which includes KC. I'm not trying to shit talk the niners it's just some discussion points I noticed while I was crunching numbers at work
I can't believe a team with Pacheco is a bottom half rushing team...that shocks me. That man runs angry.
We are the 17th ranked rushing defense not offense, I was saying 49era are undefeated against teams with a rushing defense equal or worse to KC
Got it...that makes much more sense.
Yeah all you gotta do is hope Patrick fumbles on a trick play and then throws a pick six. Raiders showed everyone the blueprint
Beating the chiefs and Mahomes is tough no doubt. A lot of those losses except the ravens game was sans a healthy Trent, deebo etc.
A lot of KCs losses were due to WRs sans any ability to catch or line up onsides. Either way, both teams are most deserving of their SB appearance.
Isn’t Toney practicing? Lol.
Cehjd nghftgh ghtrhfh gthrhfhg
I mean, what you are saying is that if Mahomes has a perfect game the Chiefs could win. That’s true. But if all it takes are two small common mistakes you are also making the point that the Chiefs are beatable if the ball bounces the way it often does in games. For anyone.
Fingers crossed!
49rs the same team that gave up 40+ to the chiefs last year?
Just out of curiosity did they paint the grass this time around?
The fact that you have chiefs flare makes this hard to take your facts seriously. You lost to the raiders. At home…. Past games mean nothing. I’d say good luck in the Super Bowl but I really hate your team. Here’s to 52-13! Go niners
Every team that makes it to the playoffs has a record of 0-0 for their first play off game. Make it to the super bowl after 3-0, you're back to 0-0. Luck matters more than stats.
Well…Toney is in the building practicing so….yea.
I ain’t reading all that Im happy for u tho or sorry that happened
Most of the NFC teams suck. Don’t blame the Niners. At least they’ve beaten the better teams they’ve faced unlike my Cowboys. I hope they beat the Chiefs.
Okay, now do the same analysis on the last 10 years of Superbowl teams and see how useful this methodology is as a predictive measure.
So team wins games against worse teams than itself?
RemindMe! 8 days
Ah shit we're frauds
Stats about 49ers vs Chiefs will be plastered everywhere leading up to SB, but the only measurement not quantifiable is Brock’s confidence in himself. Brock got this!
In that case, it will be super embarrassing for the Chiefs if they lose.
Fuck! Just cancel the game and give taylor the trophy already. Its over!
It's Francisco
Yeah but they blew out the Cowboys, so
There are interesting parallels between Ravens vs 49ers and Chiefs vs Ravens. 49ers moved the ball up and down the field against the Ravens defense but were undone by turnovers. The Ravens moved the ball against the Chiefs defense, but subtract even one turnover and it's likely a tie game that goes to OT. I think it will come down to which team can avoid big mistakes.
yes we know they are in the NFC
Remember last year when people ripped the Eagles because they had a soft schedule? They almost won the SB.
Do those rankings include the games vs the niners? If so then maybe they are dragged down by getting annihilated by them.
I don't care what other stat you have. Chiefs got owned by the raiders and that's pathetic.
Great analysis. Thx for putting in the research time, OP. It sure seems like this is the way the game will go, barring turnovers, penalties, injuries or other weirdness
McCaffrey 200+ yards, Patricia Mahomes won't have the ball enough to even be mad about butterfingered receivers. 9ers win 27-17
Chiefs are 2-3 against the NFC this year. We should win this game easy. We beat the Lions, Packers, and Eagles! JC lost to those teams!
People like to write long BS but realize that none of that matters in the post season. Eli would agreed as he beat that 16-1 Patriot ass that everyone and I mean 99% of people believe were going undefeated. So good job wasting time Op you and Romo on the same level of glaze
the problem is, the 49ers are going to face that NY Giants DC who stopped the undefeated Patriots
These stats are so meaningless and dumb. Sf didn't choose who they played. This holds no water to anyone with a brain
If KC's defense can hold San Fran to 13 or under. It will be one of the 4 most impressive playoff runs in history. If that happens and they win, then I think this is a run for the legacy of Spags. He's already in rare air with having 3 titles as a coordinator. 4 would further separate himself.
You mean offenses tend to play worse against good defenses? /u/ESPN get this person a lifetime contract right now.
Biggest mismatch in this game is the coaching Reid/Spags > Shanny (he’s very good)/Wilks (who I think is ass and not good in the NFC championship where Shanny is like wtf are we doing)
I already knew what OPs flair would be after the title
CMC over 100 rushing yards/ 2 TD’s. Chiefs are not gonna stop CMC at all
Chiefs also barely beat the Bills with a defense missing multiple all pros and fewer starters play than not. I think the chiefs will be in big trouble Sunday.
Niners are the next Super Bowl champs. Nothing to discuss.
. . so . . does all this guarantee a KC win? . .
no. The game is played on the field, this is just adding context to pre-game discussions.
Absolutely not, you guys have a great team. I just think it could point to the SF offense coming out flat against a rank of defense they are not accustomed to and frequently struggle against and needing to adjust, which Brock Purdy and the offense have already successfully done in the past 2 playoff games.
Mannnnnn the niners are mowin these fools down 42-17
That would be 7 more points than the KC defense has allowed in the past 34 games. KC has only allowed more than 30 points twice in the past 2 season, once against Tom Brady and once in the Superbowl
And?
The Chiefs have a good defense and the niners are unlikely to score than many points considering they already lost to the #1 and #3 defenses. If the Niners win it will be about shutting down mahomes, running CMC/Purdy getting some good scrambles like last week and winning a close game.
Yep, getting beaten to hell by the 49ers will do that to you. Did you perhaps confuse cause and effect?
I doubt that 1 game has that much affect to drop teams over the course of a season. but overall - i think the bigger point here is why the fuck are we using Yards/Game as the metric? Use points per game....
Points per game is also included in the post. They are 9-1 against bottom half scoring defenses and 3-3 against top half scoring defenses
That would make sense if the teams were facing San Fran every week, but they aren’t
Losing one or two games against San Fransisco is not going to tank your rankings that much in a 17 game season. If you moved every team SF beat up 5 spots they would only add 2 wins against top half teams
Niners fans in the comments adding a whole lot of context and caveats to counteract these stats and yet will get pissed off when you do the same thing to their favorable stats.
Ever since beating the Niners in the playoffs last season the Eagles are so damn whiney whenever the Niners are mentioned. It’s a weird complex. You’ve always been the worst fan base to deal with but now the whiniest too? Christ man. The Chiefs are going to win the Super Bowl. Maybe you’ll be calm after that?