They consistently whiffed on the high picks, then nailed the lower rounds.
Pure speculation: Gruden was terrible at picking players, and the deeper they got, the more Mayock could do his thing
Damon Arnette was 100% a Mayock pick.
Paul Guenther thought Clelin Ferrell was the next Justin Smith without thinking that maybe a Justin Smith type player isn't a 1st round guy in today's nfl
Josh Jacobs reminded Gruden of Cadillac Williams
I have no idea who saw what in Johnathon Abram
It’s not the style of play tho, Abrams was just never that caliber of player. There’s a huge role for box safety still.
Kam could actually cover people and was a consistent tackler, in addition to the hit sticks. Abram would literally only headhunt. Was below avg at like everything else lol
Could he the other way around though. Maybe Mayock let Gruden have more leeway with the picks in the lower round.
Heard Gruden was in control there though so not sure
This. Literally people here decide how much someone contributes to a bust or hidden gem based on how much they like the person. None of us know shit about fuck
I specifically remember Darius Heyward-Bey and Sebastian Janikowski. Janikowski was a pretty good kicker, but even if he had been a perennial all-pro it would have been a stretch.
Seabass was picked before the rookie pay scale. He was chosen due to cap reasons because kickers were less expensive so they would be able to negotiate a cheap deal compared to most positions.
That kicker is probably a Top 5 FRP for the Raiders in the last quarter-century. It's Woodson, Mack, Cooper, Asomugha, and Janikowski, likely in that order.
Half-baked take: Maxx Crosby is the defensive version of Brock Purdy.
Later pick who becomes a stud and covers up for the massive bust at the top of the draft.
Craziest part to me is that it took quite some time for his popularity to grow despite the performances being there since the beginning. I remember in his rookie season Raiders fans were going crazy about him while a lot of people didn’t pay any notice
Dude put up 16 tackles for loss, 10 sacks, 4 forced fumbles and 4 pass deflections in 10 starts as a 4th round rookie
Tbh I thought I saw the vision. Maybe slightly over picked, but 2x National Champion, 2X All American, 6’4” 265 lbs EDGE is extremely high pedigree and fits all the measurables. Guys like that always go high.
I think what really hurt the Raiders is that he just wasn’t productive at all. If he was at the least a consistent 5-9 sack player, while it wouldn’t equal the value of 4th overall, it’d be more understandable. Instead he’s offered almost zero upside as a rusher.
He just wasn’t an high end athlete. Had some of the measurable but none of the explosiveness. They over drafted him because he was a scheme fit and he had leadership qualities but not on pure talent.
I remember it because of the hissy fit Michael Crabtree threw when it happened. He held out for more money in his rookie year because he fell in the draft.
Then they turned around in the second and picked Mike Mitchell (another sub 4.4 guy), who did end up being a pretty solid pro, but only started 9 games for the Raiders. Everyone else had a late day three/borderline draftable grade on him and they took him in the top 50. They did at least trade down a few spots to get him. They were clowned so hard for that draft class.
I remember that year people had figured out that the raiders would reach for guys with good combines. I think a few people actually predicted this pick for this reason.
Crabtree was the consensus WR1 that draft, but I remember analysts predicting Al Davis may go with the speedsters Jeremy Maclin or Percy Harvin first… oh man how everyone underestimates Davis’ speed boner
I love pretending to be a dementia ridden Al Davis in Madden and drafting the fastest guys available, changing the positions if necessary and just having the ultimate all or nothing team.
I wouldn’t either. The Raiders have without a doubt the most WTF draft history ever. If the Raiders had the top pick in 98, everyone would have been debating whether they’re taking Manning or Leaf, and they would’ve confidently taken Charlie Batch lol.
The issue is that even with all the botched draft picks, Henry ruggs, etc their owners haircut is still the most offensive thing about their franchise.
The 2009 draft selections made by the Raiders were wild!
Not only was DHB unexpectedly selected ahead of consensus #1 WR Crabtree at pick 7, but even more shocking was their 2nd round pick and my selection for this question: Mike Mitchell. Mitchell was a consensus 6-7th round pick coming in to the draft but was selected with the 47th overall pick! The draft pundits on ESPN were scrambling to find their talking points on this guy and didn’t have a highlight package prepared as he was not expected to be called for some time. Kiper was like a deer in the headlights and was trying to keep his composure while scrambling for notes on him. Great draft day memory!
My lasting draft day memory from 2009 was how ESPN brought out Bill Cosby, who even at that time already looked like a very old man, to sit at home with 27 year old Texas WR Quan Cosby and make jokes, just because they had the same last name. He didn’t get drafted and Bill’s jokes were not good. It was rather uncomfortable then and has not aged well.
The whole Michael Sam thing was also pretty uncomfortable lol.
Dude was not that good but ESPN kept hyping him up as like a 1st or 2nd rounder because he was gay. And I don’t think he got picked till like the 4th round.
Even funnier is that both DHB and Mike Mitchell had 10 year nfl careers
Although DHB wasn't a good receiver, he managed to turn himself into a damn fine special teams player with the Steelers
Tyson Alualu. Never envisioned he’d be a 1st round pick but he was a top ten one. Joke’s on me I guess. He’s 36 years old, *still* playing in the NFL (Lions) and he’s outlasted most of the 2010 1st round (Him, JPP, Brandon Graham are still around).
Yeah in the modern era where folks tipped picks or at the very least the ESPN production knew who was going to get taken, I really can't think of many other round 1 picks that *truly* left everyone gobsmacked.
Wasn't on anyone's radar.
Yeah, I remember him projected to the back of the 1st round as a 4/5 tech DE, but JAX saw his measurables (really explosive at his size) and drafted him as a disruptive 3T DT. He’s been a solid player…as a mostly 3-4 DE
It’s actually funny that those three are still around because aside from the few people who oddly liked to try to pencil in Tebow, everyone thought we were going to draft JPP or Graham with that pick.
I remember the utter shock when I saw that pick. Like I knew our previous kicking % was bad. But a second?? No way
Then of course the implosion commenced
I’m not a big Florida state guy but I wish he had worked out, he was fun. I always liked his helicopter move trying to tackle the Georgia state returner when they lost on the last play of the game.
Brian Anger. Third round punter by the Jags. I remember watching the bottom line at a bar and wondering what position P was. There was no way it meant punter.
Too many people listing busts and not biggest reaches. Trubisky and Daniel Jones were viewed as 1st round prospects. An example of what OP is looking for is when Chip Kelly panicked and drafted Marcus Smith (a 3rd round prospect at best) in the first round with the 26th overall pick.
I think something that gets overlooked a lot though is that 95% of drafts don’t have 32 players that receive a 1st round grade. There’ll be 32 1st round picks, but not players that actually have that grade. If my team is picking 25+ I don’t get that upset if they “reach”. GMs and scouts know more than pundits
That said my answer is DHB
I think watching a draft preview recently, the guy said “in a normal year, there’s 15-20 players with a 1st round grade…”
Which, as a fan of a team that consistently selects in the 20-25 range… that’s not good
I distinctly remember a CBS article that came out after Trubisky was drafted interviewing a bunch of GMs who were flabbergasted that Trubisky was taken that early.
Don't get me wrong, plenty of mocks had Trubisky going early, but mocks also had Malik Willis going in the first.
I still can't believe we used the second pick to draft a quarterback who couldn't win the starting job at North Carolina....
But if people disagree on Trubisky can I instead offer Adam Shaheen from that same draft? Because why wouldn't you use the 45th pick on a division two tight end.
I’ve noticed that Andy Reid has refrained from drafting 26-year-old Canadian firefighters while head coach of the Chiefs. Geez, he gets burned once and gets gun-shy.
Just curious Why was he viewed as such a reach in the moment? I wasn’t really paying attention to the draft. What kind of things were draftnicks saying about him?
The dude was a 26 year old firefighter that clearly already cared more about firefighting than football, which is fine and nobel, but should have by default knocked him down to the 4th round or lower. At 26 years old, he was the oldest First Round Selection since the 1970s. All around just a horrible use of First Round value.
Did it? Janikowski was good but it never makes sense to draft a kicker in the first round because the difference between an all-pro kicker and a good kicker is not worth a first round pick.
Ray Guy could play like 3 different positions at a backup level, dude was a crazy athlete for a punter in his era. He’s 2nd all time at Southern Miss in interceptions, ahead of Patrick Surtain
I think this says it all about ray guy.
https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/oilers-once-wondered-if-ray-guy-was-kicking-a-helium-filled-football
Ray Guy famously threw a no hitter at a baseball game in college then showed up late to football practice and didn’t tell anyone where he’d been or what he’d done.
His friends all say football was his worse sport. He was much better at baseball than football and far better at basketball than baseball. They argued he could’ve been a HoFer in all 3 sports if he wanted to
And that guy is the greatest punter of all time, the first one to ever make the hall of fame and has numerous accolades named in his punting honor.
Give me Ray Guy at 23 overall every year.
The draft before the rookie wage scale was just looked at differently. You didn’t want to have to take a QB with the 1st pick because of the contact.
Can’t apply today’s strategies and standards to a league that had completely different rule sets.
Right after he was drafted, I saw a compilation video of all the times he wildly missed on screen passes. I don't know how anyone could see that and think he was an NFL QB.
Oh man I remember watching the AJ Jenkins draft at my buddies draft party here in NorCal. Seemed like most pundits had it deemed a high risk high reward pick, no one criticized them outright at the time.
"to give the 49ers the chance to take Lance with the third overall pick in that 2021 draft, the Dolphins received the 12th overall pick that year; first- and third-round picks in 2022; and a first-round pick in 2023"
I think outside of Lawrence and Fields, the league really talked themselves into this being a strong class. Wilson had the classic “late riser” profile of guy who had a good arm but played shit competition. Lance in the same vein. Mac Jones was probably a second-third round talent most seasons but there were many QB desperate teams.
I always think about “who is the top guy at the end of the CFB season” very rarely do the late risers hit, it’s basically a list made up of Josh Allen Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco Ryan Tanehill and… guys I have mostly forgotten about.
Idk I think they were all decent prospects. Mac would be a first rounder again imo. I think it's just rare that so many good QB prospects bust so hard.
it doesn’t get talked about enough because of the success they were still able to have even with the whiff just like how being able to bring arod in save the jets from the zach wilson pill being so hard to swallow
Which I just never understood. Same thing with when Deshone Kizer was drafted. You have to trust that these people that scout for a living know more than you but sometimes it just doesn’t make any sense.
[Bruce Irvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruce_Irvin), selected by the Seahawks as #15 overall.
Lots of screams from Seahawks fans and others at the time, but he played well for 6 years (in three stints) with the Seahawks , including in two Super Bowls (1-1 record, shoulda given it to Marshawn).
He’s moved around a lot lately, and I was surprised to see he’s currently with the Dolphins. 2012-2024 that’s a solid career.
I feel like I remember seeing a ton of draft “experts” giving Seattle an F grade because of disastrous picks like Bruce Irvin, Bobby Wagner, and Russell Wilson
The 2010-2012 Seahawks draft classes are probably the three best consecutive draft classes by any team this century, maybe ever. 38 Pro Bowl berths between all the players drafted, 2-3 easy HOF inductees, 2-3 more HOVG players.
Kinda funny that the year before, they drafted Aaron Curry at #4, who everyone loved and considered the safest pick in the draft, and he turned out to be shit.
Man I was not a fan of that pick. Always liked the player (just can’t teach that type of athleticism), but when all the pundits are saying he might’ve been available day 2 it’s tough to see your team use such a high pick on him.
Was real happy for him to prove me wrong tho.
I use the term “Retroactive Draft Shaming”
“We could’ve had X player!”
I’m not saying there aren’t good picks and bad picks - there are - but there tends to be a reason people go where they do and a whole range of outcomes on the other side.
Like 12 years ago the Raiders drafted a safety in the second round who was projected to go undrafted. he went to university of Ohio but i can't remember his name
100% Cole Strange was my answer to this question. I don’t even dislike him as a player, just the fact that we took him in the first with so many other holes after just trading away a starting guard for a 5th was insanity to me.
There's a good chance you could replace Sony Michel with several other dudes and received similar results, but the Pats didn't and he directly lead to a Super Bowl victory and that alone is worth the 1st rounder.
Jordan Richards was drafted a round later and I still believe is the worse reach. Cole Strange is atleast a semi-competent player. Not worth a 1st rounder and probably not ever going to be a high end starter but atleast he isn't Jordan Richards.
EJ Manuel. Greatest third round QB ever taken in the first!
They also crapped the bed with Aaron Maybin. CJ Spiller had some nice moments and one solid year in 2012 but was definitely a reach at ninth overall. Oh, let us not forget John McCargo at the end of round one in 2006. They thought he'd be good because he played between Mario Williams and Manny Lawson in college. Oddly enough all three ended up playing for the Bills.
These are just for my team. Whiff City. It's been nice watching a competent crew run the show for the last seven years now.
I posted on my own saying McGahee. Made zero sense. Blew out his knee, total gamble on how he would recover And we had Travis Henry who put up better numbers. Then he sat behind MaGahee for a few years then started again when we traded him to Baltimore and Henry again put up better numbers. Not to mention we had greater needs in 2003 than take a shot on a value pick.
without using hindsight? that is kind of tough.
Clelin Ferrell was one that I remember the "experts" being shocked by.
Tyson Alualu is another that was a shocker during the draft, but he's had a nice career.
Using hindsight, EJ Manuel
He had zero business being the #16 pick, but Buffalo was desperate for a QB
His career would have likely been much different without the expectations that go along with being a first round pick.
No one here knows the difference between reach and bust lol
Osweiler = Reach. a 4th rounder going in the 2nd.
Paxton Lynch = Bust. He was a 1st rounder who went in the 1st round and was terrible
The Lions took Jahlani Tavai in the second round. He seemed like a big reach to me at the time. Most places had him as a round 5/6 guy if I remember correctly.
LJ Collier was always a bad pick. But when you trade your edge rusher for a 1st rounder and wanna stay competitive, you’re gonna have to use that 1st rounder on another edge guy.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Taking a running back in the first round was bad enough then to take like the 5th best prospect at the position to boot….yuck.
He’s turned to be the definition of a JAG and was picked instead of Tee Higgins or Antoine Winfield who tons of Chiefs fans wanted or even if we had to take a RB to take Swift or Taylor.
Bad luxury pick
KC taking a QB with first round pick in 2017. Obviously it was the correct move. At the time tho the chiefs had 3 playoff appearances as well as 3 10+ win seasons in the prior 4 season to drafting Mahomes. They were already close with Smith at QB so at the time I thought they were reaching as QB was not exactly a strong need for them.
This move in addition to the AZ Rosen/Murray situation really changed my outlook on how a team should handle the QB position.
This thread is full of names of guys who just sucked in the nfl but weren’t necessarily over drafted. Guys like Lance, Jones, Taco Charlton, they were all well regarded prospects and typically mocked in the first round and thought of as mid to late first rounders.
Then there are guys like Clellin Ferrell who were considered late firsts who went top 5, or Christian Ponder who was thought of as a day 2 pick that went 12 overall.
Clelin Ferrell is the easy pick here.
Pick a random year and the Raiders pick is usually an easy answer.
Mayock really answering whether or not draft-day pundits could actually pass as GMs
They consistently whiffed on the high picks, then nailed the lower rounds. Pure speculation: Gruden was terrible at picking players, and the deeper they got, the more Mayock could do his thing
Damon Arnette was 100% a Mayock pick. Paul Guenther thought Clelin Ferrell was the next Justin Smith without thinking that maybe a Justin Smith type player isn't a 1st round guy in today's nfl Josh Jacobs reminded Gruden of Cadillac Williams I have no idea who saw what in Johnathon Abram
In what world would Justin smith not be a first rounder today lol
Justin Smith is definitely a first round guy in todays NFL lol Clemson is no where near the same level of player is the problem
Johnathan Abrahams reminded them of Kam Chancellor. That style of play was being legislated out of the game and they drafted him anyway.
It’s not the style of play tho, Abrams was just never that caliber of player. There’s a huge role for box safety still. Kam could actually cover people and was a consistent tackler, in addition to the hit sticks. Abram would literally only headhunt. Was below avg at like everything else lol
Could he the other way around though. Maybe Mayock let Gruden have more leeway with the picks in the lower round. Heard Gruden was in control there though so not sure
This. Literally people here decide how much someone contributes to a bust or hidden gem based on how much they like the person. None of us know shit about fuck
At this point I'll admit I feel for his butter smooth accent
I specifically remember Darius Heyward-Bey and Sebastian Janikowski. Janikowski was a pretty good kicker, but even if he had been a perennial all-pro it would have been a stretch.
Seabass was picked before the rookie pay scale. He was chosen due to cap reasons because kickers were less expensive so they would be able to negotiate a cheap deal compared to most positions.
“You see, it wasn’t a fuck up of the organization when they were *picking* him but a fuck up of the organization *from before*…”
Al Davis was the organization lmao
Darrius Heyward-Bey
Like taking a kicker in the first round…
That kicker is probably a Top 5 FRP for the Raiders in the last quarter-century. It's Woodson, Mack, Cooper, Asomugha, and Janikowski, likely in that order.
I agree, but op asked for a wtf moment. I had never even considered someone taking a kicker in the first round before that
The Raiders best 1st round pick in the last twenty-five years? Sebastian Janikowski kicker FSU
Mack? Lol
lol by a wide margin. He was 2 First-team All-Pro and NFL DPOY in just the four years he was with the Raiders
Half-baked take: Maxx Crosby is the defensive version of Brock Purdy. Later pick who becomes a stud and covers up for the massive bust at the top of the draft.
Craziest part to me is that it took quite some time for his popularity to grow despite the performances being there since the beginning. I remember in his rookie season Raiders fans were going crazy about him while a lot of people didn’t pay any notice Dude put up 16 tackles for loss, 10 sacks, 4 forced fumbles and 4 pass deflections in 10 starts as a 4th round rookie
Josh Allen was selected 3 picks later, too. I remember him falling and the Jags were quick in grabbing him.
I will never forgive Dave Gettleman for not drafting Josh Allen when he fell to us at 6. Fucking malpractice.
There were several teammates on Clemsons D line who were better than him.
The best part of that was it caused Ed Oliver to fall.
Tbh I thought I saw the vision. Maybe slightly over picked, but 2x National Champion, 2X All American, 6’4” 265 lbs EDGE is extremely high pedigree and fits all the measurables. Guys like that always go high.
I think what really hurt the Raiders is that he just wasn’t productive at all. If he was at the least a consistent 5-9 sack player, while it wouldn’t equal the value of 4th overall, it’d be more understandable. Instead he’s offered almost zero upside as a rusher.
He just wasn’t an high end athlete. Had some of the measurable but none of the explosiveness. They over drafted him because he was a scheme fit and he had leadership qualities but not on pure talent.
"One word: leadership."
for some reason I’ll never forget DHB to the raiders as the first wr taken
Immediately where I went as well. This is when the raiders speed meme became cemented into the meme HOF
CANT TEACH IT
CERTIFIED G AND A BONAFIDE STUD
I remember it because of the hissy fit Michael Crabtree threw when it happened. He held out for more money in his rookie year because he fell in the draft.
Sorry ass receiver
Bro 💀
Then they turned around in the second and picked Mike Mitchell (another sub 4.4 guy), who did end up being a pretty solid pro, but only started 9 games for the Raiders. Everyone else had a late day three/borderline draftable grade on him and they took him in the top 50. They did at least trade down a few spots to get him. They were clowned so hard for that draft class.
I don’t like this game
Lol yooo Darius Heyward-Bey. I’m remembering being like what?
I remember that year people had figured out that the raiders would reach for guys with good combines. I think a few people actually predicted this pick for this reason.
Was thinking this. Drafted before "sorry ass receiver" Michael Crabtree.
Crabtree was the consensus WR1 that draft, but I remember analysts predicting Al Davis may go with the speedsters Jeremy Maclin or Percy Harvin first… oh man how everyone underestimates Davis’ speed boner
I love pretending to be a dementia ridden Al Davis in Madden and drafting the fastest guys available, changing the positions if necessary and just having the ultimate all or nothing team.
I wouldn’t either. The Raiders have without a doubt the most WTF draft history ever. If the Raiders had the top pick in 98, everyone would have been debating whether they’re taking Manning or Leaf, and they would’ve confidently taken Charlie Batch lol.
The 90s Bengals might give you a run for your money on this statement.
The Bengals only did it for a decade. The Raiders have done it long enough to collect a pension lol.
Or the 10's Jets, that's a horrific stretch of drafting
*Detroit Lions fan rises up* " Hold my beer..I gotta educate these folks"
We DID take Charlie Batch...And start him first several years. Now God bless Charlie but really.. Come on now.
Just say “Matt Millen era” Harrington, Charles Rogers (RIP), Mike Williams are hall of fame worthy shit picks
Rogers was a legit prospect though. He just couldn't stay healthy, like at all
Hahahahaababababahaha. So correct
The Raiders really are the best example of this
I’ve seen a few of these threads the past few days and honestly, we should just start titling them “hey, let’s all punch down on Raiders fans.”
What's the issue?
The issue is that even with all the botched draft picks, Henry ruggs, etc their owners haircut is still the most offensive thing about their franchise.
This one made me laugh out loud, thank you
And on your cake day too
Hitting a HR with Charles Woodson was your downfall. It made them think they were draft whisperers.
Who would've thought the only defensive player in college football history to win the Heisman was gonna be good?
Was that a controversial pick at the time??
The 2009 draft selections made by the Raiders were wild! Not only was DHB unexpectedly selected ahead of consensus #1 WR Crabtree at pick 7, but even more shocking was their 2nd round pick and my selection for this question: Mike Mitchell. Mitchell was a consensus 6-7th round pick coming in to the draft but was selected with the 47th overall pick! The draft pundits on ESPN were scrambling to find their talking points on this guy and didn’t have a highlight package prepared as he was not expected to be called for some time. Kiper was like a deer in the headlights and was trying to keep his composure while scrambling for notes on him. Great draft day memory!
I remember none of the websites had a photo of him and there wasn’t a lot of info for a second rounder.
I remember every draft pick having a link except for his. However he was a good pick though.
My lasting draft day memory from 2009 was how ESPN brought out Bill Cosby, who even at that time already looked like a very old man, to sit at home with 27 year old Texas WR Quan Cosby and make jokes, just because they had the same last name. He didn’t get drafted and Bill’s jokes were not good. It was rather uncomfortable then and has not aged well.
The whole Michael Sam thing was also pretty uncomfortable lol. Dude was not that good but ESPN kept hyping him up as like a 1st or 2nd rounder because he was gay. And I don’t think he got picked till like the 4th round.
Round 7
Remember he got a lot of sacks with the cowboys one preseason. Still didn’t make the team. That had to hurt
He got DPOY for his conference his senior season, tbf
Even funnier is that both DHB and Mike Mitchell had 10 year nfl careers Although DHB wasn't a good receiver, he managed to turn himself into a damn fine special teams player with the Steelers
Yeah Mitchell was actually decent, although still a big reach
Oh shit. Sounds like Belichick taking Cole strange in the first when he was projected at like 106.
Real ones remember Jordan Richards in the 2nd round
Christian Ponder. And I’m not biased at all.
After watching every one of their games in college him and EJ Manuel going as early as they did blew my mind.
Desperation does funny things.
We’re in danger again aren’t we
Tyson Alualu. Never envisioned he’d be a 1st round pick but he was a top ten one. Joke’s on me I guess. He’s 36 years old, *still* playing in the NFL (Lions) and he’s outlasted most of the 2010 1st round (Him, JPP, Brandon Graham are still around).
Yeah in the modern era where folks tipped picks or at the very least the ESPN production knew who was going to get taken, I really can't think of many other round 1 picks that *truly* left everyone gobsmacked. Wasn't on anyone's radar.
Yeah, I remember him projected to the back of the 1st round as a 4/5 tech DE, but JAX saw his measurables (really explosive at his size) and drafted him as a disruptive 3T DT. He’s been a solid player…as a mostly 3-4 DE
He was even a solid NT for what we paid him for a few years before he went to Detroit.
He was a good run stuffer and a ok pass rusher in Pittsburgh
It’s actually funny that those three are still around because aside from the few people who oddly liked to try to pencil in Tebow, everyone thought we were going to draft JPP or Graham with that pick.
Roberto Aguayo
I remember the utter shock when I saw that pick. Like I knew our previous kicking % was bad. But a second?? No way Then of course the implosion commenced
I’m not a big Florida state guy but I wish he had worked out, he was fun. I always liked his helicopter move trying to tackle the Georgia state returner when they lost on the last play of the game.
Brian Anger. Third round punter by the Jags. I remember watching the bottom line at a bar and wondering what position P was. There was no way it meant punter.
"We only want to draft starters." Tho he turned out to be a damn good punter.
Not just Anger but Anger over Russ. Yikes.
I remember The Onion article: "I will punt Jacksonville to greatness."
Too many people listing busts and not biggest reaches. Trubisky and Daniel Jones were viewed as 1st round prospects. An example of what OP is looking for is when Chip Kelly panicked and drafted Marcus Smith (a 3rd round prospect at best) in the first round with the 26th overall pick.
I think something that gets overlooked a lot though is that 95% of drafts don’t have 32 players that receive a 1st round grade. There’ll be 32 1st round picks, but not players that actually have that grade. If my team is picking 25+ I don’t get that upset if they “reach”. GMs and scouts know more than pundits That said my answer is DHB
I think watching a draft preview recently, the guy said “in a normal year, there’s 15-20 players with a 1st round grade…” Which, as a fan of a team that consistently selects in the 20-25 range… that’s not good
I distinctly remember a CBS article that came out after Trubisky was drafted interviewing a bunch of GMs who were flabbergasted that Trubisky was taken that early. Don't get me wrong, plenty of mocks had Trubisky going early, but mocks also had Malik Willis going in the first. I still can't believe we used the second pick to draft a quarterback who couldn't win the starting job at North Carolina.... But if people disagree on Trubisky can I instead offer Adam Shaheen from that same draft? Because why wouldn't you use the 45th pick on a division two tight end.
Mr. Old Man Firefighter himself, Danny fucking Watkins
I’ve noticed that Andy Reid has refrained from drafting 26-year-old Canadian firefighters while head coach of the Chiefs. Geez, he gets burned once and gets gun-shy.
Dude he now refuses to draft a player older than 23 like almost at all.
Just curious Why was he viewed as such a reach in the moment? I wasn’t really paying attention to the draft. What kind of things were draftnicks saying about him?
He was something like 26 years old and not particularly highly rated as a prospect.
I remember a draft profile on him that said "his age means he is NFL ready." I was the same age at the time, I wondered if I too was NFL ready.
Well, were you?
The original Brandon Weeden (even though Watkins, who went pro a year earlier, is actually younger)
The dude was a 26 year old firefighter that clearly already cared more about firefighting than football, which is fine and nobel, but should have by default knocked him down to the 4th round or lower. At 26 years old, he was the oldest First Round Selection since the 1970s. All around just a horrible use of First Round value.
Darrius Heyward-Bey
Marcus Smith. Eagles 1st rounder in 2014.
The Bucs drafted a kicker in the 2nd round. Pretty sure this wins. Edit: I stand corrected
The raiders drafted a punter in the first round
I mean, they also drafted a kicker in the first round too and it worked out pretty well.
Did it? Janikowski was good but it never makes sense to draft a kicker in the first round because the difference between an all-pro kicker and a good kicker is not worth a first round pick.
Put it this way, I’d rather take Janikowski with my 1st than Aguayo with a 2nd
Sure, but he was probably among their best first round picks in over a decade, so there's that.
He was a very good kicker for a long time. He was on the raiders for like 16 years. I’d say that’s a solid pick.
Idk, I'd burn a mid 1st on an all-time great kicker. I've yet to garner any interest as a potential NFL GM though, so that might explain a few things.
You mean the literal only punter in the HoF who won 3 SBs with them?
Ray Guy could play like 3 different positions at a backup level, dude was a crazy athlete for a punter in his era. He’s 2nd all time at Southern Miss in interceptions, ahead of Patrick Surtain
Ray Guy is maybe the greatest punter ever. Not really sure you can count “the greatest at their position” as a reach.
I think this says it all about ray guy. https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/oilers-once-wondered-if-ray-guy-was-kicking-a-helium-filled-football
Ray Guy famously threw a no hitter at a baseball game in college then showed up late to football practice and didn’t tell anyone where he’d been or what he’d done. His friends all say football was his worse sport. He was much better at baseball than football and far better at basketball than baseball. They argued he could’ve been a HoFer in all 3 sports if he wanted to
His whole college career section on Wikipedia is insane
And that guy is the greatest punter of all time, the first one to ever make the hall of fame and has numerous accolades named in his punting honor. Give me Ray Guy at 23 overall every year.
he was worth the pick, argue with a wall
They also didn't have the cap to draft an expensive player that early. This was back when the rookie wage scale didn't exist.
The draft before the rookie wage scale was just looked at differently. You didn’t want to have to take a QB with the 1st pick because of the contact. Can’t apply today’s strategies and standards to a league that had completely different rule sets.
Good pick too crazy enough
The Jets drafted a kicker in the first round. EDIT: This wasn’t so. BUT the Redskins did…twice!
Christian Hackenberg easily.
Right after he was drafted, I saw a compilation video of all the times he wildly missed on screen passes. I don't know how anyone could see that and think he was an NFL QB.
I watched him at Penn State and I’m on record calling him the worst quarterback in human history prior to that draft.
Wasn’t even good in any of the spin-off “professional” football leagues.
She McClellin for the Bears.
Adam Shaheen for the Bears.
Moving up to the #3 pick in 2013 to take Dion Jordan. The #4 pick was Lane Johnson. Pain.
E.J. Manuel Aaron Maybin Donte Whitner
Hitner was solid
ouch
Leatherwood off the top of my head. Also AJ Jenkings years ago. Thanks Baalke.
Oh man I remember watching the AJ Jenkins draft at my buddies draft party here in NorCal. Seemed like most pundits had it deemed a high risk high reward pick, no one criticized them outright at the time.
trey lance was drafted 3rd overall after only playing one season of FCS football at NDSU
It is insane that a dude that threw like 300 passes in his whole life (lowball number) was drafted #3 overall tbh.
Dude made so much money of a basically nothing career. Super envious. Gets to avoid a bunch of NFL CTE and still bank millions.
Technically was our highest paid QB last season ($8 million dead cap) and this season ($5 million).
And I am going to go on a limb and say he gets one more backup QB contract with a few more mill.
You can't just gloss over the trade that went down either.
"to give the 49ers the chance to take Lance with the third overall pick in that 2021 draft, the Dolphins received the 12th overall pick that year; first- and third-round picks in 2022; and a first-round pick in 2023"
Waddle, Hill and Chubb eventually
Damn Niners could have been a legit super team right now. Too bad (good thing) that QB draft was all time overrated
I think outside of Lawrence and Fields, the league really talked themselves into this being a strong class. Wilson had the classic “late riser” profile of guy who had a good arm but played shit competition. Lance in the same vein. Mac Jones was probably a second-third round talent most seasons but there were many QB desperate teams. I always think about “who is the top guy at the end of the CFB season” very rarely do the late risers hit, it’s basically a list made up of Josh Allen Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco Ryan Tanehill and… guys I have mostly forgotten about.
Idk I think they were all decent prospects. Mac would be a first rounder again imo. I think it's just rare that so many good QB prospects bust so hard.
Also lots of talk of no QBs being available the next draft.
Everyone loves to reference how the 49ers only have a 7th round invested in their QB… not quite.
it doesn’t get talked about enough because of the success they were still able to have even with the whiff just like how being able to bring arod in save the jets from the zach wilson pill being so hard to swallow
That wasn't even viewed as a reach though at the time. He was projected to be a high pick all season.
Which I just never understood. Same thing with when Deshone Kizer was drafted. You have to trust that these people that scout for a living know more than you but sometimes it just doesn’t make any sense.
[Bruce Irvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruce_Irvin), selected by the Seahawks as #15 overall. Lots of screams from Seahawks fans and others at the time, but he played well for 6 years (in three stints) with the Seahawks , including in two Super Bowls (1-1 record, shoulda given it to Marshawn). He’s moved around a lot lately, and I was surprised to see he’s currently with the Dolphins. 2012-2024 that’s a solid career.
I feel like I remember seeing a ton of draft “experts” giving Seattle an F grade because of disastrous picks like Bruce Irvin, Bobby Wagner, and Russell Wilson
That was bleacher report. Typical analysis from those clowns.
The 2010-2012 Seahawks draft classes are probably the three best consecutive draft classes by any team this century, maybe ever. 38 Pro Bowl berths between all the players drafted, 2-3 easy HOF inductees, 2-3 more HOVG players.
Kinda funny that the year before, they drafted Aaron Curry at #4, who everyone loved and considered the safest pick in the draft, and he turned out to be shit.
The lesson is, just draft future stars
Man I was not a fan of that pick. Always liked the player (just can’t teach that type of athleticism), but when all the pundits are saying he might’ve been available day 2 it’s tough to see your team use such a high pick on him. Was real happy for him to prove me wrong tho.
Travis Frederick was deemed a reach by everybody
Those 5 Pro Bowls are 3rd round numbers
Tyson Alualu was a solid player with a lengthy career, but absolutely no one had him being drafted in the first two rounds.
I use the term “Retroactive Draft Shaming” “We could’ve had X player!” I’m not saying there aren’t good picks and bad picks - there are - but there tends to be a reason people go where they do and a whole range of outcomes on the other side.
Like 12 years ago the Raiders drafted a safety in the second round who was projected to go undrafted. he went to university of Ohio but i can't remember his name
Mike Mitchell, shit was comedy
Browns reached all the way into week 2 of UDFAs for Brandon Weeden.
I saw a Brandon Weeden Cowboys jersey in the wild last year
That means you saw Brandon Weeden.
Weeden was definitely a reach at #22 but he was typically mocked in the early second round.
Raiders fan enters the chat.
Most of our first round picks over the last several years.
Cole Strange pick had me dumbfounded. He was a 3rd rounder in every draft mock
100% Cole Strange was my answer to this question. I don’t even dislike him as a player, just the fact that we took him in the first with so many other holes after just trading away a starting guard for a 5th was insanity to me.
There's a good chance you could replace Sony Michel with several other dudes and received similar results, but the Pats didn't and he directly lead to a Super Bowl victory and that alone is worth the 1st rounder.
Cole Strange
Jordan Richards was drafted a round later and I still believe is the worse reach. Cole Strange is atleast a semi-competent player. Not worth a 1st rounder and probably not ever going to be a high end starter but atleast he isn't Jordan Richards.
Richards was not invited to the combine. They usually invite the top 300 or so top collegiate players
EJ Manuel. Greatest third round QB ever taken in the first! They also crapped the bed with Aaron Maybin. CJ Spiller had some nice moments and one solid year in 2012 but was definitely a reach at ninth overall. Oh, let us not forget John McCargo at the end of round one in 2006. They thought he'd be good because he played between Mario Williams and Manny Lawson in college. Oddly enough all three ended up playing for the Bills. These are just for my team. Whiff City. It's been nice watching a competent crew run the show for the last seven years now.
I posted on my own saying McGahee. Made zero sense. Blew out his knee, total gamble on how he would recover And we had Travis Henry who put up better numbers. Then he sat behind MaGahee for a few years then started again when we traded him to Baltimore and Henry again put up better numbers. Not to mention we had greater needs in 2003 than take a shot on a value pick.
without using hindsight? that is kind of tough. Clelin Ferrell was one that I remember the "experts" being shocked by. Tyson Alualu is another that was a shocker during the draft, but he's had a nice career. Using hindsight, EJ Manuel He had zero business being the #16 pick, but Buffalo was desperate for a QB His career would have likely been much different without the expectations that go along with being a first round pick.
Reaches? You want reaches? Oh we’ve got some reaches. So many
No one here knows the difference between reach and bust lol Osweiler = Reach. a 4th rounder going in the 2nd. Paxton Lynch = Bust. He was a 1st rounder who went in the 1st round and was terrible
The Lions took Jahlani Tavai in the second round. He seemed like a big reach to me at the time. Most places had him as a round 5/6 guy if I remember correctly.
LJ Collier was always a bad pick. But when you trade your edge rusher for a 1st rounder and wanna stay competitive, you’re gonna have to use that 1st rounder on another edge guy.
Tebow is the obvious choice but the real answer is Maurice Clarett
Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Taking a running back in the first round was bad enough then to take like the 5th best prospect at the position to boot….yuck. He’s turned to be the definition of a JAG and was picked instead of Tee Higgins or Antoine Winfield who tons of Chiefs fans wanted or even if we had to take a RB to take Swift or Taylor. Bad luxury pick
I liked CEH coming out of LSU but man I couldn’t believe he went ahead of Swift and Taylor.
That old ass Browns QB.
Brandon Wheedon
KC taking a QB with first round pick in 2017. Obviously it was the correct move. At the time tho the chiefs had 3 playoff appearances as well as 3 10+ win seasons in the prior 4 season to drafting Mahomes. They were already close with Smith at QB so at the time I thought they were reaching as QB was not exactly a strong need for them. This move in addition to the AZ Rosen/Murray situation really changed my outlook on how a team should handle the QB position.
Christian Ponder
Christian Hackenburg.
Every Raiders first round pick
Clelin Ferrell, Daniel Jones, Alex Leatherwood
This thread is full of names of guys who just sucked in the nfl but weren’t necessarily over drafted. Guys like Lance, Jones, Taco Charlton, they were all well regarded prospects and typically mocked in the first round and thought of as mid to late first rounders. Then there are guys like Clellin Ferrell who were considered late firsts who went top 5, or Christian Ponder who was thought of as a day 2 pick that went 12 overall.