I feel like Anthony Barr might be a good choice for this. We drafted him pretty early and he had a decently long tenure with us. He got a few Pro Bowls on the way too but nothing crazy.
God I remember being SO upset when the Giants didn't get a chance to select Anthony Barr. I was like who the fuck is the random ass WR they drafted? Turned out to be OBJ. Shows how much I know, although in hindsight Barr was probably the better pick precisely because of his longevity.
The only solace I can take is at least we didnt spent 2 first round picks in one of the most stacked draft classes in a long time on a cb and qb that were out of the league in 2 years. And obj was great at least for a couple years and landed us dexter Lawrence
Well in a different draft we did draft a not good QB in the first round, and a horrendous out of the league CB in the same first round. Luckily we snuck an all pro DT in the middle.
This is a good answer. Beloved in Minnesota for what he brought to our D, but overall just a good player, not elite in any single season. Just a very good tenure here.
You could say the majority of Day 3 prospects. They mostly make the roster, stick around for 2-4 years on different teams, and then move on from the NFL.
For a less smart-ass answer, I'd say Jake Matthews and Taylor Decker. They were exactly as advertised as solid, reliable OTs but no one would ever consider them elite at their position.
Yeah I mean my honest answer is Derrick Nnadi, a mid-third round pick who was projected as having a ceiling as a decent nose tackle and serviceable member of defensive line rotation for a long time, and that is exactly what heâs done lol
Joe Thomas. Highly touted LT who played a decade of all pro football for the team that drafted him. He protected the hell out of whatever trash QB they lined up.
Yeah, I think the better answer is somebody like D'Brickashaw Ferguson. "Whoever drafts this guy will have the blind side covered for the next decade."
Ferguson played exactly one decade, never missed a start, made 3 pro bowls, 0 all-pros, never at any point would have been called the best tackle in the league, chance to make the HOF is 0.0%, but never at any point would the Jets have said "gee, we really need to look into upgrading at LT." I think that's exactly the guy the question is asking about.
But there are guys people expect can be all-pros right out the gate, and in my opinion, that's predicting a Hall of Fame career.
Like John Elway? Couldn't he be an answer to this question. One of the biggest prospects of all time, ton of hype, and retired in the conversation for GOAT. If he's one of the hottest prospects ever, it's probably because they think he can be one of the best players ever.
There's a difference between thinking someone could be the best player ever and actually expecting them to. If John Elway went on to have Matt Stafford's career (even without a super bowl) no one would have thought he failed to meet expectations.
Yeah I feel like whenever these types of questions are brought up, Eric Fisher is a much more apt example. Solid starter for 9 years, made a few Pro Bowls, and won a Super Bowl.
You're not absolutely ecstatic about getting him in the top-5, but you can't say that it was a disappointing career.
I also think it's just like, the only way to really bust at OL is to either not play at all or literally giving up bad. Even playing just passably is fine and there's so many OL that it isn't as harmful as when a QB bust
It's near the top for first round guys. It's actually third behind non-edge linebackers and safety, but those guys get taken less frequently and are lower impact.
I went through all first round picks starting with 2011 when the rookie wage scale was introduced through the most recent season that rookies had completed their contracts. The position group that had the strongest correlation with team improvement when picked in the first round was offensive line. That is a factor of position value and bust success rate.
A little early (and biased) but thusfar I'd also have to say Penei Sewell. It was a miracle he fell to 7 given that basically everyone expected top 5 tackle play out of him and he's easily lived up to that
And before him for QBs, Andrew Luck.
Both came in with very high expectations and hit immediately. Command of the offense, throws that could go anywhere on the field. Just guys who you could tell were high caliber franchise QBs straight away.
Luck actually retired because he didn't like what football was doing to his person life.
Apparently he needed to put in this drill Sargeant type of facade to lead a football team but couldn't turn it off at home.
Yes and no. He has exceeded any reasonable expectations for the two seasons he was healthy all year. But heâs also already had two season ending injuries in four seasons, effectively missing probably a seasonâs worth of games in that time.
Dude basically hasn't had a normal offseason his entire career.
Rookie year, ACL rehab, emergency appendectomy, calf strain, and now "rehab from literally everything in the wrist ligament complex snapping"
Hackenberg is another "seemed like a tool in college, was a tool out of the league" guys too except the Jets gaslit themselves for some inexplicable reason.Â
It's close, but that draft was stacked. Surtain, Chase, Parsons, Slater all play premium positions and are near the best in the league at their position. Good year to have a top-10 pick
I feel like he outdid his expectation, like he was clearly best in his class, but I donât remember him being talked about like heâs âgenerationalâ yet heâs arguable the best Tackle in the NFL.
I was hearing âgenerationalâ before the draft. We were shocked he fell to 7, and so were the Lions - they told Micah Parsons before the draft that *heâd* be the pick there
He was getting talked as a generational talent through the process, but people don't get hyped over OL prospects generally. Joe Alt was coined 'the best prospect since Sewell ' and people were generally meh on the draft pick by the Chargers.
Still don't get why the Jags went with Walker.
Walker has been good for the Jags. He had a great second year. Aidan has just been amazing. With the addition of a great defensive line coach in Terrell Williams and the Davenport and Reader.
Plus Alim played like an Top 5 DT in the league when he was healthy last year. Should be really fun.
Plus we actually have a secondary this year with young and talented DBs.
Weâre not expecting much. Itâs a 1-year deal for not a lot of money.
(In fact, heâs got a bigger cap hit for the Vikings this year than the Lions)
Baalke hates short arms. It's his philosophy that short arms cause bad plays. That's the entire thing, Hutch could have been a Duck and he wasn't going to Jacksonville.Â
I know Sewell is a huge change for the Lions. But I really feel like Hutchinson was the pick that changed the Lions. Most drafts it felt like this type of player would get picked right before the Lions would select a guy. Scramble for someone else and it be a bust. But to get the hometown Guy and he lives up to the hype so far really felt like a huge shift in the Lions as a team.
Iâd say hes outperformed expectations actually. I think the biggest knock against him was that he didnât have superstar potential and heâs well on his way towards that now
Yeah, I think this applies to a good number of first overall QBs. Whether they were supposed to be *generational* like Luck, Manning and Elway or "just" *franchise* QB like Aikman, Stafford, Borrow, Cam, Goff etc.
Even as someone who loved Luck, he didn't live up to the hype (which was being a HOFer). I think that there are honestly only a few QBs who would have been able to live up to the ludicrous hype he got as a prospect (best since Peyton or maybe Elway)
I think Luck gets discounted because of how bad those teams were. The defense gave up tons of points; the lines were bad; the running game was bad. Hilton was good and Wayne was for a couple years, but Luck was in the playoffs throwing key passes to guys like Donte Moncrief, Lavon Brazill, Da'Rick Rogers, and Griff Whalen. Even Fleener and Allen never did anything without Luck. He made everyone around him better to the point that we sort of missed how integral he was to any success. Heck, Frank Reich went from coach of the year candidate with Luck to punching bag within a year or two.
This really can't be discounted. All you have to do is look at the records from Manning's last year to his injured year to Luck's first year.
10 wins, 2 wins, 11 wins. The rest of the team was not very good
And it wasn't just early on either. Luck took them to the AFC title game in 2015. They had the 8th worst scoring defense. There wasn't a single team with a worse scoring defense that year who even had a winning record. Even the next 7 teams who were BETTER in defensive scoring had losing records. He did that with an aging Wayne, TY, Anthony Castonzo, and essentially replacement players on the rest of the offense. He was really good.
I think you're mixing up years here. The 2015 team that was 8th worst went 8-8, the AFC title game team in 2014 finished 19th in points allowed but 11th in yards, and they gave up an unusually high number of non-offensive TDs. Weirdly enough their defense was top 5 in score % too, though they gave up more TDs and fewer FGs so it led to more points. Still not great but definitely not awful.
Well that's embarrassing. You're right. I am mixing up my years. In 2014, the defense was actually decent... not good, but not terrible like in some of the other years. Thanks for the correction.
I feel like if Luck was drafted by most other teams, he would have been closer to living up to the hype and probably still be playing right now. He just happened to get drafted by a team that had already shown with Peyton that they were expecting him to carry a whole bad team for his entire career.
But would you give a pass considering it was really injuries that derailed that Hall of Fame career?
Because I really think Luck would have eventually been a top 5 QB. I don't know of he made it just because the competition was really fierce at the time with Brady, Rodgers, Manning, taking up 3 spots off the bat. But I think he was right there waiting to move in. So I honestly think talent wise he was the guy everyone thought he'd be. The guy that you totally should tank for because he can change your franchise. But injury cut it short.
Yeah, Luck lived up to his draft spot in a vacuum, but expectations were more along the lines of him being a top 10 QB ever, which he didn't meet.
You can argue about injuries and lack of supporting cast, but what we got was someone who was Hall of Very Good even if he hadn't retired early.
George Pickens: Talented receiver prospect who dropped a bit in draft due to character concerns. In the NFL heâs been pretty much just that, talented receiver whoâs starting to show some of those character concerns. And to top it off he went to the perfect team, the Steelers. Tomlin is the best at working with those type of guys, but I am curious if the dam will break eventually and Steelers move on.
Teven Jenkins: As a Bears fan, Jenkins is living up to exactly as he was billedâŠ. a 1st round talent that dropped due to injury concerns. In the NFL, heâs been a beast when on the field, flashing all-pro potential⊠but heâs always fucking injured.
Itâs always funny when talented players drop in the draft due to a âred flagâ, the fans of the team think they got a steal⊠and then those red flags keep popping up in the NFL reminding the fans why he dropped in the first place lol.
Falcons fans know that the Steelers offense will be one to watch. Arthur smith hates personalities like Pickens. Also, Arthur smith with Russ is gonna be so fuckign good in terms of drama
Theyâre gonna implode. I promise you. And it will be because of Artie.
I respect the hate of a former coordinator lol. Iâm sure Seahawks fans are saying the same thing about our new OC (Bears). And Bears fans are saying the same thing about Raiders new OC.
McCaffrey is an interesting answer to this prompt, IMO
He was like the best all-around football player at Stanford, but people questioned what his position would be in the NFL. Some argued you take him early round 1 for his versatility on offense. He was a slot receiver/halfback.Â
Others argued it'd be a waste to use a top 10 pick on a slot receiver.Â
Turns out he's the most effective offensive weapon in the NFL. That option route he runs out of the backfield is the most difficult thing for a defender to cover, and the NFL is all about scheming matchups nowadays.Â
forgot who it was but one of the voters came out and admitted cmc wouldnât win because there were enough voters who hated staying up to watch stanford play latelate games
He should have won the Hiesman. He set the record for most total yards in a season by a player and probably would have won it if he didnât play at Stanford and was at a SEC school
Henry has 200 more yards with 60 additional carries. McCaffery had a better average per carry and had 550 more receiving yards on the season than Henry. McCaffery was the AP player of the year and played in 2 out of the 3 phases of the game and contributed more yards than anyone that season. The award isnât who is the best RB, itâs the best all around football player. As he has shown in the NFL he would have been just as effective against better defenses.
I'd say he definitely surpassed expectations. Just a reminder that Leonard Fournette went #4 and Corey Davis went #5 ahead of him. McCaffrey also went 1 pick behind Mike Williams and only has about 500 fewer receiving yards than him after 7 seasons despite McCaffrey being a RB and Williams being a WR. I believe McCaffrey has also been better than Ezekiel Elliot (drafted #4 in 2016) and Saquan Barkley (drafted #2 in 2018).
I remember I just thought, relatively small RB, white guy... Why's he a first rounder?
I don't watch college football to have known anything about McCaffrey, but the amount of times you see an elite RB who happens to be white and small is exceedingly rare.
Also, when I say small, I mean under 220-225lbs. That means his play type would have to be based on speed and elusiveness. In other words, the exact opposite of a Peyton Hillis type.
I'm a white guy, and we generally can be strong, but we're not usually as fast and twitchy as some other demographics can be. McCaffrey is just a rare talent.
People questioned if he could run between the tackles due to his size. Turns out good vision and elusiveness is good enough to find the gap and not take big hits.
You can tell when analysts didn't watch tape because they tried to make him out to be a scat back, when in fact he was a power rusher between the tackles in a power run west-cost NFL scheme. It just so happens he can also do all the slot receiver stuff too. Should have won the heisman but the SEC-bias that year was too much, at least Derrick Henry was deserving.
Menace. Worth letting the idea of picking 1st a second year in a row sound tolerable and that class has some HoF firepower (and one talented creep). But also a lot of duds in the top 10 as well, Corey Davis, John Ross, Solomon Thomas, and the Titty Kisser himself at #2.Â
I think Cam Newton is someone who met his expectation. He was a franchise QB and did pretty great things for the Panthers but longevity was not there because of playstyle/teammates.
Tristan Wirfs was a highly-touted OT from Iowa that was drafted high and has performed exactly like you expected a highly-talented huge road grader OT to perform.
You know, exactly unlike Robert Gallery.
Wirfs went 13th overall and was the 4th tackle off the board. An all-pro tackle might be the expectation for a top 3 pick but it's definitely not for a middle of the round pick, he's easily exceeded expectations.
Wirfs is a future HOFer. He played RT all throughout college. Then, he came into the NFL and was immediately dominant and became an AllPro quickly and a top 5 RT. But that wasn't good enough. He then switched to LT, and without skipping a beat, he became a top 5 LT. He finishes his career as an elite LT, and he's a 1st ballot lock.
> heâs an incredible RB
Is he? Since he got hurt his second year he's been fine, but he's much more Joe Mixon or Travis Etienne than a Derrick Henry or CMC level back. Has felt like a guy coasting by on reputation.
He's been coasting through hypothetical scenarios because the excuse has always been that his teammates suck. They do, but there was a year where he was outplayed by his backup (2021).
I remember saying Nick Chubb was easily better RB but some people were convinced Barkley was still better, just had worse teammates.
When they were both healthy in 2022 Barkley and Chubb were less than 100 yards apart in yards from scrimmage despite Barkley playing behind the Giants OL. The Eagles OL made Miles Sanders a top 5 rusher in yards. Everyone always says it but it probably bears repeating that OL matters a lot.
> heâs an incredible RB, just not worth the #2 OVR slot because of his position.
Therein lies the rub, no?
He pretty much had to have a HOF career for us to make him worth the pick for us. You might say that is an unfair expectation but when you draft a RB to the team we had (aging QB, no OL, no defense), he pretty much has to be that good to justify the pick. RBs were already falling out of favor (at least as a position you invest premium assets in) so it isnt just hindsight either. You may say that he was thrown into a bad situation or that he has suffered a lot of injuries and both are true, but again, when you invest a top 2 pick in an RB (a position traditionally which is reliant on parts around them), the reasonable expectation should be that he is so good he transcends the circumstances. And while he showed he can still be very good, he didnt have the type of career a RB drafted that highly should.
My point is just that he was as good in the NFL from a skill perspective as he was expected to be. Everything else is why he shouldn't have ever been taken #2 overall, but he was the player he was expected to be coming out of college.
He's a classic example of "the pick doesn't make the player, the player makes the pick." Saquon would've been the same player drafted 32nd overall vs. 2nd overall. That he was drafted 2nd overall shouldn't force unreasonable expectations on him - it should be a reminder to the fans that the front office is stupid for using that high a pick on a RB.
Myles Garrett I think has been basically everything he was cracked up to be
Penei Sewell as well, great outcome was that he was gonna be an All-Pro and one of the best linemen in the league and he pretty much delivered on that
Jamar Chase.
arguably the consensus "Best WR in college" for like 2 years before he was drafted. Gets drafted, immediately becomes a top 5 WR, and the only blemish is some bullshit report about he doesn't see the pro-ball as clear.
Hereâs a tricky one: Darius Slayton.
Round 5, Pick 171
Led the Giants receiving room four out of the last five seasons.
His yard totals those years: 724, 740, 751, 770.
Iâd argue heâs outperformed his draft expectations â fifth round is a wildcard, and itâs possible heâs a perennial 1000-yard guy on a better offense.
But itâs also entirely possible heâs only leading the WR room because ⊠itâs the Giants WR room. He could easily be WR3 at best anywhere else, perhaps.
Heâs a real âchicken or the eggâ in every way. Is he only leading the Giants WR room because it sucks?
Does he only have mediocre stats because Daniel Jones is blah? Or is Daniel Jones blah (in part) because Darius Slayton, Round 5 Pick 171, has been the WR1 for 80% of his career?
Here is how Iâd summarize Darius Slayton: he is a bottom-three WR1 in the NFL. He also was not *drafted* to be a WR1 in the NFL. Does that average out to meeting expectations? For a lower draft capital receiver who was put into a weak offense with a low-volume QB and surrounded by first round busts (Toney, Wandale) and inadvertently became the lead receiver, I think heâs given us exactly what we should expect.
If Nabers comes in and immediately does what HEâS supposed to do, Slayton will be what I think he naturally should be â a good WR2! This is the season to find out. I like Slayton and think heâll play that role and would bet pretty heavily he out-gains Wandale and Hyatt.
I donât think Slayton is a good example of this tbh. You said it yourself - heâs very much outperformed what you would expect from a 5th round WR pick. Hes not a WR1 quality WR obviously, but getting a reliable WR2/3 is a very good outcome from a 5th rounder. Heâs simply a good player which isnât what you expect from those later day 3 picks. If he was a 3rd round pick then I think there would be more of an argument to be made
I love me some Slayton and have been very happy heâs stayed with the team! Honestly, I think youâre almost underselling him haha. Because, at least to me, I donât expect most 5th rounders to be as good as he has been, and if we hit at that level consistently, the Giants would be the 49ers!
I think I figured out how to articulate my point of view a bit better. What would other random, fifth round receivers look like if they ended up in the Giantsâ WR room in 2019 instead of Slayton?
The only other WR in the fifth that year was Hunter Renfrow (who has a 1000 yard season but has vanished faster). In the fourth and sixth rounds are nobodies â Renfrow and Slayton out produced them all.
From 2018, Justin Watson and Marquez Valdes Scantling are the surviving 5th round WRs.
From 2017, Isaiah McKenzie is the last survivor.
And going forward into 2020, Darnell Mooney and KJ Osborn are the most relevant 5th round WRs.
Of the 20ish round 5 WRs from these four drafts, Mooney and Renfrow put up 1000 yard seasons. Slayton has been the most consistent, and then Valdes Scantling and Osborn probably round out the top five. About a dozen lasted two years or less. So yes, Slayton definitely outperformed the 5th round mold.
But my question is opportunity. Slayton became an WR1 because of so many mistakes by the Giants FO:
âą His rookie year (2019), his competition was Golden Tate (676 yards), Sterling Shephard (576 yards), and two guys named Cody. *Led team in yards.*
âą In 2020, it was Tate and Shephard again, with CJ Board and Dante Pettis in the rear. *Lead team in yards.*
âą In 2021, Slayton was bailed out. He had a bad season, but the moves the Giants made were worse. They traded for Kenny Golladay (521 yards) and drafted Kadarius Toney in the first (420 yards). These two players led the WR room in yards with those totals. Shepard followed with 366, and Slayton was at only 339. *Fourth on team in yards.*
âą In 2022, Slayton was saved by the mistakes of the past year. Golladay was literally murdered by Brian Daboll and Kadarius Toney was traded. Shepard got injured early, and Slayton easily beat 7th round pick Richie James Jr (569 yards) and FA Isaiah Hodgins (351 yards), as well as glass bones rookie Wandale Robinson (227 yards). *Led team in yards.*
âą 2023: Wandale had a better season (525 yards), but third round rookie Jalin Hyatt received minimal playing time (373 yards) and Isaiah Hodgins was faded (230 yards). One year free agent Parris Campbell did nothing, and Shepard was all but gone. *Led team in yards*
**All of this is to say,** Darius Slayton is a player I like. He was also bailed out on his down year by a horrible FA signing (Kenny Golladay) that got benched in year two, a horrible 1st round pick (Kadarius Toney) that got traded by year two, and another first round pick that lost a year to injury (Wandale Robinson). His competition before that were 49ers depth chart casualties. Iâd argue his *abilities* are maybe a bit above 5th round level, but his volume is so, so situational due to the Gettleman era fuck ups.
This isnât a secret, by the way. The league knows. His two year contract gives a yearly salary of $6.2 million. Tyler Boyd, who will be WR3/4 on the Titans, just signed for $4.5 million. Darnell Mooney, who I mentioned, just got $13 million. Gabe Davis, who sucks, also got $13 million.
On the contrary, this is the best answer in the thread IMO. Everything else is just a bunch of high draft picks who, shockingly, met high expectations. The draft position relation to performance expectation gets more hazy in the later rounds, and with any WR you draft after Round 2, you consider it a successful pick if they become a consistent contributor on a WR2/3 basis. I think the original commenterâs point is at least a more interesting discussion of the concept than having everyone name Luck/Manning/Burrow/InsertGreatPlayerWhoWasATopPickHere
Iâm with you that itâs at least a more interesting discussion! But, realistically, how often do you âexpectâ a 5th round player to be anything more than a depth piece? When you hit on a 5th rounder, itâs usually seen as finding a diamond in the rough.
If a team consistently got equivalent production out of 5th rounders as Slayton, theyâd be a consistent SB threat. I think really only the 49ers have had that level of draft abilities lol
I think the original commenterâs point though is that Slayton IS a depth piece. Thereâs just literally nobody else competing for targets. Sort of like how in the NBA if you give a guy 40 minutes a game heâll probably average at least 15pts a game. That doesnât mean heâs a guy a good team should count on for those statsâheâs a guy that only a very bad team would ever count on for those stats.
Slayton is the example showing what almost never happens in practiceâthat some guys have a low ceiling and, even if given a huge chance, could not develop into a true WR1. Those guys are usually drafted later, and for good reason, but fans almost never actually get the chance to see what their theoretical ceiling is (since teams know it and seek out better players to take the lead role).
Well, thatâs where I disagree then. Hes a legitimately good player. Not a star, but a worthwhile starter. Getting him in the 5th round and having him produce as he has, has been exceeding expectations. Slayton has had his production in spite of poor team building, not because of it.
Your average 5th rounder doesnât get a 2nd contract with the team that drafted them.
It feels like a sort of cop out answer but literally anyone rounds 3-6 who started the league for more than 1 contract length. If you know of them by name and they didn't play for your team....they overachieved.
Round 1 is you over achieve or under. Round 1 is dreams of Franchise saving players or dramatic underachieving.Â
I think Round 1 doesnât have to be that black and white. Like I think Taylor Decker is a perfect example of somebody who met expectations and didnât exceed or disappoint. He was a mid-1st round pick and has been a steady LT ever since. He was drafted to be a good LT and thatâs what he is.
4 out of the 5 top picks in the 89 Draft:
Troy Aikman was a franchise QB that led the Cowboys to three TITLES.
Barry Sanders is arguably the GOAT at RB, something that would be unanimous if he hadn't retired too early after burn out from playing in the dumpsterfire of an organization the Lions are.
Deion Sanders is probably the best cover corner of his generation and was also a damn good return man and serviceable receiver.
Derrick Thomas was world class pass rusher and HOF who still holds the single game sack record and used to cohold the single season sack record.
Brandon Graham is a poster boy for this type of question, I think.
When he was drafted he was considered a high motor, high effort, high floor prospect and good teammate who graded out as a mid-tier athlete and who would have a ceiling due to his size and physical limitations. It was expected that he would probably be a consistently âVery Goodâ contributor and maybe bag a pro bowl or two, but never an All-Pro level DE.
Thatâs exactly what we got. More than a decade as a very good player who contributed to a ton of wins, perennial team captain, made a pro bowl and a 2nd team All Pro, plenty of memorable plays (including the obvious one). For a long time he was viewed as a disappointment and compared to Earl Thomas, but his longevity and the Super Bowl play have turned public opinion in a big way. Not an NFL HOF player, and probably never in the conversation as a top 3-5 edge rusher during his career, but an Eagles HOF lock whoâs undoubtedly going to be doing post-game shows and team-sponsored appearances for years after he retires.
I wanted to see how long it took for his name to come up, but the guy would've had a billion yards and TDs on the right squad and still went out and was the unanimous best reciever in football.
And yet there's no debate who the best reciever is, because Jerry Rice is just that much better than everyone else. I can't imagine what watching Rice would have been like if watching Megatron was that exciting.Â
Iâm sure those articles existed-I remember the hype for Megatron coming out for sure! But I mean he is one of the best receivers ever, surely no one can expect that
Eli Manning - First overall pick who won two superbowls, two super bowl MVPs, multiple pro bowls, insane longevity, and is almost definitely going in the HoF
D'Brickashaw Ferguson, NY Jets.
Played every snap of his career (except one), and played at just below a HOF level. Damn, damn good player even if not a transcendent one. Very reliable.
Tua! Smart as heck with great accuracy that lacks the elite physical tools and has injury concerns.
Hes been exactly as advertised when it comes to the good AND the bad.
Sticking with the dolphins, Iâd also say Jake Long for the first three years of his career. People forget now, but from day 1 he was no worse than the 3rd best LT in the game and very well may have been the best in those three years. Classic case of âmonster of a player derailed by injuriesâ.
As much as I love Randy Moss, there were too many off the field questions about him and his expectations in the NFL were all over the place. They did say if he could focus on the game and stay out of trouble, he could be a force, which he was.
Megatron and Larry Fitzgerald were both hailed as the next great NFL receivers and backed that up.
Myles Garrett so far has lived up to the hype.
Iâll die on the hill Bengals should have drafted Sewell but that doesnât take anything away from Chaseâs career.
He 100% lived up to his draft position.
I mean, Aaron Donald has to be. First DT taken in 2014. Excellent combine scores. The only thing they got wrong was his grading, putting him as a backup or special teams guy. Otherwise, he was a probowler every year he played and was considered the best at his position from start to finish.
Rams drafted him first round, and he played like it every year.
Eric Decker. I was at Minnesota as a student while he was here. He looked about the same in the league as he did in college.
Hot take, Baker Mayfield. He has had a weird road but landing in that 10-15 best starter range felt right.
In the spirit of the true intention of the question, here are some Ravens 2nd rounders who played exactly like a 2nd rounder should:
Tyus Bowser
Timmy Jernigan
Torrey Smith
Paul Kruger
Chris Chester
Dwan Edwards
Anthony Weaver
Gary Baxter
I feel like Anthony Barr might be a good choice for this. We drafted him pretty early and he had a decently long tenure with us. He got a few Pro Bowls on the way too but nothing crazy.
God I remember being SO upset when the Giants didn't get a chance to select Anthony Barr. I was like who the fuck is the random ass WR they drafted? Turned out to be OBJ. Shows how much I know, although in hindsight Barr was probably the better pick precisely because of his longevity.
If you wanna be real sad, look who the pick after odell was. And guess who odell won a ring with đ«
I was like, it couldn't be thaaaat bad... Then it was pretty much the only player who makes it, "thaaaat bad" lol.
The only solace I can take is at least we didnt spent 2 first round picks in one of the most stacked draft classes in a long time on a cb and qb that were out of the league in 2 years. And obj was great at least for a couple years and landed us dexter Lawrence
Well in a different draft we did draft a not good QB in the first round, and a horrendous out of the league CB in the same first round. Luckily we snuck an all pro DT in the middle.
This is a good answer. Beloved in Minnesota for what he brought to our D, but overall just a good player, not elite in any single season. Just a very good tenure here.
Just a really good, solid mid first round pick.
You could say the majority of Day 3 prospects. They mostly make the roster, stick around for 2-4 years on different teams, and then move on from the NFL. For a less smart-ass answer, I'd say Jake Matthews and Taylor Decker. They were exactly as advertised as solid, reliable OTs but no one would ever consider them elite at their position.
Yup. Jake Matthews is a great answer
Jake Matthews was the exact person I thought of.
Yeah I mean my honest answer is Derrick Nnadi, a mid-third round pick who was projected as having a ceiling as a decent nose tackle and serviceable member of defensive line rotation for a long time, and that is exactly what heâs done lol
I mean decker was 8th in sacks allowed last season so he certainly is towards the top of players at the position.
Patrick Surtain. He was supposed to come in the league and be an all-pro level corner. He is.
Pain. đ
Jaycee is really good he's just always injured I wouldn't feel too bad honestly
The best ability is availability
Until I read the last word of that post, I thought you were talking about the elder Patrick Surtain.
Joe Thomas. Highly touted LT who played a decade of all pro football for the team that drafted him. He protected the hell out of whatever trash QB they lined up.
My favorite JT story is how there was one game where the first time he met one of the QBs he was protecting was in the huddle in the middle of a game.
The best JT story is clearly the time the broadcast messed up the factoid graphic and called him the first offensive lineman in history.
Wasnât he, though?
In our hearts
He was certainly one of the offensive linemen of all time
I really disagree with this answer. He EXCEEDED expecatations, by a long shot, you can't expect a HOF career from anyone bar Luck level prospects
Yeah, I think the better answer is somebody like D'Brickashaw Ferguson. "Whoever drafts this guy will have the blind side covered for the next decade." Ferguson played exactly one decade, never missed a start, made 3 pro bowls, 0 all-pros, never at any point would have been called the best tackle in the league, chance to make the HOF is 0.0%, but never at any point would the Jets have said "gee, we really need to look into upgrading at LT." I think that's exactly the guy the question is asking about.
God I miss Brick so muchâŠâŠ
But there are guys people expect can be all-pros right out the gate, and in my opinion, that's predicting a Hall of Fame career. Like John Elway? Couldn't he be an answer to this question. One of the biggest prospects of all time, ton of hype, and retired in the conversation for GOAT. If he's one of the hottest prospects ever, it's probably because they think he can be one of the best players ever.
There's a difference between thinking someone could be the best player ever and actually expecting them to. If John Elway went on to have Matt Stafford's career (even without a super bowl) no one would have thought he failed to meet expectations.
Yeah I feel like whenever these types of questions are brought up, Eric Fisher is a much more apt example. Solid starter for 9 years, made a few Pro Bowls, and won a Super Bowl. You're not absolutely ecstatic about getting him in the top-5, but you can't say that it was a disappointing career.
Similarly, Quenton Nelson. One of the best prospects at Guard ever. In his 6 seasons heâs made 6 pro bowls.
I saw something recently that showed how OL is the position least likely to bust.
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I also think it's just like, the only way to really bust at OL is to either not play at all or literally giving up bad. Even playing just passably is fine and there's so many OL that it isn't as harmful as when a QB bust
It's near the top for first round guys. It's actually third behind non-edge linebackers and safety, but those guys get taken less frequently and are lower impact. I went through all first round picks starting with 2011 when the rookie wage scale was introduced through the most recent season that rookies had completed their contracts. The position group that had the strongest correlation with team improvement when picked in the first round was offensive line. That is a factor of position value and bust success rate.
IOL, specifically.
Yeah but how often is a guard picked in the top 6. He has to be a near certainty to excel.
A little early (and biased) but thusfar I'd also have to say Penei Sewell. It was a miracle he fell to 7 given that basically everyone expected top 5 tackle play out of him and he's easily lived up to that
Not a biased take at all. He's a fucking beast.
Burrow immediately comes to mind for a recent pick.
Iâd add Chase to this as well. We all saw what they could do together at LSU and they kept it rolling into the NFL
Chase exceeded in my book. Â Who could have expected that level of rookie season.
Definitely not everyone freaking out about drops in the pre-season
>We all saw what they could do together at LSU For us fans of the Bayou Bengals, it was like porn.
And before him for QBs, Andrew Luck. Both came in with very high expectations and hit immediately. Command of the offense, throws that could go anywhere on the field. Just guys who you could tell were high caliber franchise QBs straight away.
Colts were so awful that Luck chose to retire with an intact brain.
Luck actually retired because he didn't like what football was doing to his person life. Apparently he needed to put in this drill Sargeant type of facade to lead a football team but couldn't turn it off at home.
Unfortunately, Burrow may be on the same trajectory if the Bengals don't protect him.
I just donât get this. The team screwed both of Carson Palmerâs knees. You would think they would learn.
Yes and no. He has exceeded any reasonable expectations for the two seasons he was healthy all year. But heâs also already had two season ending injuries in four seasons, effectively missing probably a seasonâs worth of games in that time.
Yeah but that's why pretty much every time someone talks about a prospect they end include "barring injuries."
Weeks 1-4 of the last 2 seasons beg to differ
I absolutely love seeing Burrow transform from a QB who forgot how to play football in the offseason to elite over a couple of weeks lol.
Dude basically hasn't had a normal offseason his entire career. Rookie year, ACL rehab, emergency appendectomy, calf strain, and now "rehab from literally everything in the wrist ligament complex snapping"
Not just rookie year. Covid rookie year/camp
He had an emergency appendectomy in 2022 during preseason and then a calf injury in 2023.Â
Swag Kelly. Guy fell to the 7th round because he seemed like an undisciplined dirtbag. Turns out he was an undisciplined dirtbag.
Hackenberg is another "seemed like a tool in college, was a tool out of the league" guys too except the Jets gaslit themselves for some inexplicable reason.Â
Penei. A plug-and-play tackle who had top 3 tackle talent and was about as safe a pick in the 2021 draft as there could be
Penei is the best player from that draft
Holy shit, thatâs kinda true. Also, Saints AND Falcons?!!?
Hold on, Iâm getting my pitchfork
Just when I thought there could be nothing worse than a Saints fan, this abomination exists.
It's close, but that draft was stacked. Surtain, Chase, Parsons, Slater all play premium positions and are near the best in the league at their position. Good year to have a top-10 pick
sigh
I think its either Penei or Parsons. Both are debatably the best at their position
Flair question... Did you lose a bet?
We got a tight end
I feel like Aiden Hutchinson is exactly as advertised. Explosive top of the draft talent at the position.
Same with Nick Bosa and Myles Garrett
Those two were advertised as elite destructive defensive ends that would be in the running for dpoe every year. And that's basically what they are
I think both of them apply to this prompt better than Hutch.Â
Can probably add Sewell to this list as well.
I feel like he outdid his expectation, like he was clearly best in his class, but I donât remember him being talked about like heâs âgenerationalâ yet heâs arguable the best Tackle in the NFL.
I was hearing âgenerationalâ before the draft. We were shocked he fell to 7, and so were the Lions - they told Micah Parsons before the draft that *heâd* be the pick there
Parsons and Hutch on the same defense would be insane
He was getting talked as a generational talent through the process, but people don't get hyped over OL prospects generally. Joe Alt was coined 'the best prospect since Sewell ' and people were generally meh on the draft pick by the Chargers.
Still don't get why the Jags went with Walker. Walker has been good for the Jags. He had a great second year. Aidan has just been amazing. With the addition of a great defensive line coach in Terrell Williams and the Davenport and Reader. Plus Alim played like an Top 5 DT in the league when he was healthy last year. Should be really fun. Plus we actually have a secondary this year with young and talented DBs.
Trent Baalke hates Jim Harbaugh. Thatâs it.
Iâm almost more excited for the lions secondary than I am for our own đ
Because Baalke, that said Hutchinson is better, but Walker isn't that much of a drop off.
Iâm glad to see Walker had a strong year. We Cat Bros gotta stick together
No Chicago sausage should be allowed to pick on the Panthers. That's other cat's job.Â
It feels like the Jags GM always drafts for potential. Look at the guys he took this draft, high ceiling dudes with lower floors.
Davenport isn't a player to be that excited about
They should be excited to get disappointment.
Weâre not expecting much. Itâs a 1-year deal for not a lot of money. (In fact, heâs got a bigger cap hit for the Vikings this year than the Lions)
Baalke hates short arms. It's his philosophy that short arms cause bad plays. That's the entire thing, Hutch could have been a Duck and he wasn't going to Jacksonville.Â
I know Sewell is a huge change for the Lions. But I really feel like Hutchinson was the pick that changed the Lions. Most drafts it felt like this type of player would get picked right before the Lions would select a guy. Scramble for someone else and it be a bust. But to get the hometown Guy and he lives up to the hype so far really felt like a huge shift in the Lions as a team.
Iâd say hes outperformed expectations actually. I think the biggest knock against him was that he didnât have superstar potential and heâs well on his way towards that now
First guy that came to mind. I roasted my jags fan friend endlessly when they took walker over him.
Andrew Luck was worthy of that #1 overall pick immediately. Took the Colts to the playoffs as a rookie.
Yeah, I think this applies to a good number of first overall QBs. Whether they were supposed to be *generational* like Luck, Manning and Elway or "just" *franchise* QB like Aikman, Stafford, Borrow, Cam, Goff etc.
Even as someone who loved Luck, he didn't live up to the hype (which was being a HOFer). I think that there are honestly only a few QBs who would have been able to live up to the ludicrous hype he got as a prospect (best since Peyton or maybe Elway)
I think Luck gets discounted because of how bad those teams were. The defense gave up tons of points; the lines were bad; the running game was bad. Hilton was good and Wayne was for a couple years, but Luck was in the playoffs throwing key passes to guys like Donte Moncrief, Lavon Brazill, Da'Rick Rogers, and Griff Whalen. Even Fleener and Allen never did anything without Luck. He made everyone around him better to the point that we sort of missed how integral he was to any success. Heck, Frank Reich went from coach of the year candidate with Luck to punching bag within a year or two.
This really can't be discounted. All you have to do is look at the records from Manning's last year to his injured year to Luck's first year. 10 wins, 2 wins, 11 wins. The rest of the team was not very good
And it wasn't just early on either. Luck took them to the AFC title game in 2015. They had the 8th worst scoring defense. There wasn't a single team with a worse scoring defense that year who even had a winning record. Even the next 7 teams who were BETTER in defensive scoring had losing records. He did that with an aging Wayne, TY, Anthony Castonzo, and essentially replacement players on the rest of the offense. He was really good.
I think you're mixing up years here. The 2015 team that was 8th worst went 8-8, the AFC title game team in 2014 finished 19th in points allowed but 11th in yards, and they gave up an unusually high number of non-offensive TDs. Weirdly enough their defense was top 5 in score % too, though they gave up more TDs and fewer FGs so it led to more points. Still not great but definitely not awful.
Well that's embarrassing. You're right. I am mixing up my years. In 2014, the defense was actually decent... not good, but not terrible like in some of the other years. Thanks for the correction.
I feel like if Luck was drafted by most other teams, he would have been closer to living up to the hype and probably still be playing right now. He just happened to get drafted by a team that had already shown with Peyton that they were expecting him to carry a whole bad team for his entire career.
>Lavon Brazill, Da'Rick Rogers Key and Peele-ass names
But would you give a pass considering it was really injuries that derailed that Hall of Fame career? Because I really think Luck would have eventually been a top 5 QB. I don't know of he made it just because the competition was really fierce at the time with Brady, Rodgers, Manning, taking up 3 spots off the bat. But I think he was right there waiting to move in. So I honestly think talent wise he was the guy everyone thought he'd be. The guy that you totally should tank for because he can change your franchise. But injury cut it short.
Yeah, Luck lived up to his draft spot in a vacuum, but expectations were more along the lines of him being a top 10 QB ever, which he didn't meet. You can argue about injuries and lack of supporting cast, but what we got was someone who was Hall of Very Good even if he hadn't retired early.
I couldnât disagree with this more, I think Luck absolutely would have been a hall of famer assuming health and no early retirement.Â
George Pickens: Talented receiver prospect who dropped a bit in draft due to character concerns. In the NFL heâs been pretty much just that, talented receiver whoâs starting to show some of those character concerns. And to top it off he went to the perfect team, the Steelers. Tomlin is the best at working with those type of guys, but I am curious if the dam will break eventually and Steelers move on. Teven Jenkins: As a Bears fan, Jenkins is living up to exactly as he was billedâŠ. a 1st round talent that dropped due to injury concerns. In the NFL, heâs been a beast when on the field, flashing all-pro potential⊠but heâs always fucking injured. Itâs always funny when talented players drop in the draft due to a âred flagâ, the fans of the team think they got a steal⊠and then those red flags keep popping up in the NFL reminding the fans why he dropped in the first place lol.
I really hope they extend Teven, but I will be very nervous about the guarantees. Hereâs hoping he has a healthy season.
Raiders gonna give the Steelers their first rounder for GP this offseason
Then heâll retire or have some sort of ânever play againâ kind of thing
Falcons fans know that the Steelers offense will be one to watch. Arthur smith hates personalities like Pickens. Also, Arthur smith with Russ is gonna be so fuckign good in terms of drama Theyâre gonna implode. I promise you. And it will be because of Artie.
I respect the hate of a former coordinator lol. Iâm sure Seahawks fans are saying the same thing about our new OC (Bears). And Bears fans are saying the same thing about Raiders new OC.
McCaffrey is an interesting answer to this prompt, IMO He was like the best all-around football player at Stanford, but people questioned what his position would be in the NFL. Some argued you take him early round 1 for his versatility on offense. He was a slot receiver/halfback. Others argued it'd be a waste to use a top 10 pick on a slot receiver. Turns out he's the most effective offensive weapon in the NFL. That option route he runs out of the backfield is the most difficult thing for a defender to cover, and the NFL is all about scheming matchups nowadays.Â
You can make a very strong argument that he should have won the Heisman in 2015. He was unbelievable.
forgot who it was but one of the voters came out and admitted cmc wouldnât win because there were enough voters who hated staying up to watch stanford play latelate games
He should have won the Hiesman. He set the record for most total yards in a season by a player and probably would have won it if he didnât play at Stanford and was at a SEC school
Come on now.... Those yards include punt and kick returns and Derrick Henry rushed 2200+ yards and 28 touchdowns
Henry has 200 more yards with 60 additional carries. McCaffery had a better average per carry and had 550 more receiving yards on the season than Henry. McCaffery was the AP player of the year and played in 2 out of the 3 phases of the game and contributed more yards than anyone that season. The award isnât who is the best RB, itâs the best all around football player. As he has shown in the NFL he would have been just as effective against better defenses.
I'd say he definitely surpassed expectations. Just a reminder that Leonard Fournette went #4 and Corey Davis went #5 ahead of him. McCaffrey also went 1 pick behind Mike Williams and only has about 500 fewer receiving yards than him after 7 seasons despite McCaffrey being a RB and Williams being a WR. I believe McCaffrey has also been better than Ezekiel Elliot (drafted #4 in 2016) and Saquan Barkley (drafted #2 in 2018).
I remember I just thought, relatively small RB, white guy... Why's he a first rounder? I don't watch college football to have known anything about McCaffrey, but the amount of times you see an elite RB who happens to be white and small is exceedingly rare. Also, when I say small, I mean under 220-225lbs. That means his play type would have to be based on speed and elusiveness. In other words, the exact opposite of a Peyton Hillis type. I'm a white guy, and we generally can be strong, but we're not usually as fast and twitchy as some other demographics can be. McCaffrey is just a rare talent.
People questioned if he could run between the tackles due to his size. Turns out good vision and elusiveness is good enough to find the gap and not take big hits.
I love how every now and then John Ross gets flak while Corey Davis thoroughly busted and nobody ever mentions him
I miss him everyday
Over expectations, definitely. Â I know he was a big prospect but very rare for Swiss Army knife RBs to be as productive as he is.
You can tell when analysts didn't watch tape because they tried to make him out to be a scat back, when in fact he was a power rusher between the tackles in a power run west-cost NFL scheme. It just so happens he can also do all the slot receiver stuff too. Should have won the heisman but the SEC-bias that year was too much, at least Derrick Henry was deserving.
Myles Garrett.
Menace. Worth letting the idea of picking 1st a second year in a row sound tolerable and that class has some HoF firepower (and one talented creep). But also a lot of duds in the top 10 as well, Corey Davis, John Ross, Solomon Thomas, and the Titty Kisser himself at #2.Â
I think Cam Newton is someone who met his expectation. He was a franchise QB and did pretty great things for the Panthers but longevity was not there because of playstyle/teammates.
One of the most divisive prospects in terms of expectation weâve seen thoughÂ
Tristan Wirfs was a highly-touted OT from Iowa that was drafted high and has performed exactly like you expected a highly-talented huge road grader OT to perform. You know, exactly unlike Robert Gallery.
Wirfs went 13th overall and was the 4th tackle off the board. An all-pro tackle might be the expectation for a top 3 pick but it's definitely not for a middle of the round pick, he's easily exceeded expectations.
Agreed 100%. None of us expected him to be the force he is, and that's a compliment to his play because the expectations weren't low.
Wirfs is a future HOFer. He played RT all throughout college. Then, he came into the NFL and was immediately dominant and became an AllPro quickly and a top 5 RT. But that wasn't good enough. He then switched to LT, and without skipping a beat, he became a top 5 LT. He finishes his career as an elite LT, and he's a 1st ballot lock.
Saquon Barkley. Like most of us expected, heâs an incredible RB, just not worth the #2 OVR slot because of his position.
> heâs an incredible RB Is he? Since he got hurt his second year he's been fine, but he's much more Joe Mixon or Travis Etienne than a Derrick Henry or CMC level back. Has felt like a guy coasting by on reputation.
He's been coasting through hypothetical scenarios because the excuse has always been that his teammates suck. They do, but there was a year where he was outplayed by his backup (2021). I remember saying Nick Chubb was easily better RB but some people were convinced Barkley was still better, just had worse teammates.
When they were both healthy in 2022 Barkley and Chubb were less than 100 yards apart in yards from scrimmage despite Barkley playing behind the Giants OL. The Eagles OL made Miles Sanders a top 5 rusher in yards. Everyone always says it but it probably bears repeating that OL matters a lot.
> heâs an incredible RB, just not worth the #2 OVR slot because of his position. Therein lies the rub, no? He pretty much had to have a HOF career for us to make him worth the pick for us. You might say that is an unfair expectation but when you draft a RB to the team we had (aging QB, no OL, no defense), he pretty much has to be that good to justify the pick. RBs were already falling out of favor (at least as a position you invest premium assets in) so it isnt just hindsight either. You may say that he was thrown into a bad situation or that he has suffered a lot of injuries and both are true, but again, when you invest a top 2 pick in an RB (a position traditionally which is reliant on parts around them), the reasonable expectation should be that he is so good he transcends the circumstances. And while he showed he can still be very good, he didnt have the type of career a RB drafted that highly should.
My point is just that he was as good in the NFL from a skill perspective as he was expected to be. Everything else is why he shouldn't have ever been taken #2 overall, but he was the player he was expected to be coming out of college. He's a classic example of "the pick doesn't make the player, the player makes the pick." Saquon would've been the same player drafted 32nd overall vs. 2nd overall. That he was drafted 2nd overall shouldn't force unreasonable expectations on him - it should be a reminder to the fans that the front office is stupid for using that high a pick on a RB.
And also has the injury prone label now
Myles Garrett I think has been basically everything he was cracked up to be Penei Sewell as well, great outcome was that he was gonna be an All-Pro and one of the best linemen in the league and he pretty much delivered on that
Jeff Simmons and Skoronski are two Titans playing exactly as we hoped they'd play
Up next, Trench King.
Jamar Chase. arguably the consensus "Best WR in college" for like 2 years before he was drafted. Gets drafted, immediately becomes a top 5 WR, and the only blemish is some bullshit report about he doesn't see the pro-ball as clear.
He definitely exceeded expectations. You take that outcome every time. In my mind meeting expectations means hitting your 50th percentile outcome.Â
Hereâs a tricky one: Darius Slayton. Round 5, Pick 171 Led the Giants receiving room four out of the last five seasons. His yard totals those years: 724, 740, 751, 770. Iâd argue heâs outperformed his draft expectations â fifth round is a wildcard, and itâs possible heâs a perennial 1000-yard guy on a better offense. But itâs also entirely possible heâs only leading the WR room because ⊠itâs the Giants WR room. He could easily be WR3 at best anywhere else, perhaps. Heâs a real âchicken or the eggâ in every way. Is he only leading the Giants WR room because it sucks? Does he only have mediocre stats because Daniel Jones is blah? Or is Daniel Jones blah (in part) because Darius Slayton, Round 5 Pick 171, has been the WR1 for 80% of his career? Here is how Iâd summarize Darius Slayton: he is a bottom-three WR1 in the NFL. He also was not *drafted* to be a WR1 in the NFL. Does that average out to meeting expectations? For a lower draft capital receiver who was put into a weak offense with a low-volume QB and surrounded by first round busts (Toney, Wandale) and inadvertently became the lead receiver, I think heâs given us exactly what we should expect. If Nabers comes in and immediately does what HEâS supposed to do, Slayton will be what I think he naturally should be â a good WR2! This is the season to find out. I like Slayton and think heâll play that role and would bet pretty heavily he out-gains Wandale and Hyatt.
I donât think Slayton is a good example of this tbh. You said it yourself - heâs very much outperformed what you would expect from a 5th round WR pick. Hes not a WR1 quality WR obviously, but getting a reliable WR2/3 is a very good outcome from a 5th rounder. Heâs simply a good player which isnât what you expect from those later day 3 picks. If he was a 3rd round pick then I think there would be more of an argument to be made
You may very well be right. I tried to justify it. I am just a lonely Giants fan who likes to talk about Darius Slayton.
I love me some Slayton and have been very happy heâs stayed with the team! Honestly, I think youâre almost underselling him haha. Because, at least to me, I donât expect most 5th rounders to be as good as he has been, and if we hit at that level consistently, the Giants would be the 49ers!
I think I figured out how to articulate my point of view a bit better. What would other random, fifth round receivers look like if they ended up in the Giantsâ WR room in 2019 instead of Slayton? The only other WR in the fifth that year was Hunter Renfrow (who has a 1000 yard season but has vanished faster). In the fourth and sixth rounds are nobodies â Renfrow and Slayton out produced them all. From 2018, Justin Watson and Marquez Valdes Scantling are the surviving 5th round WRs. From 2017, Isaiah McKenzie is the last survivor. And going forward into 2020, Darnell Mooney and KJ Osborn are the most relevant 5th round WRs. Of the 20ish round 5 WRs from these four drafts, Mooney and Renfrow put up 1000 yard seasons. Slayton has been the most consistent, and then Valdes Scantling and Osborn probably round out the top five. About a dozen lasted two years or less. So yes, Slayton definitely outperformed the 5th round mold. But my question is opportunity. Slayton became an WR1 because of so many mistakes by the Giants FO: âą His rookie year (2019), his competition was Golden Tate (676 yards), Sterling Shephard (576 yards), and two guys named Cody. *Led team in yards.* âą In 2020, it was Tate and Shephard again, with CJ Board and Dante Pettis in the rear. *Lead team in yards.* âą In 2021, Slayton was bailed out. He had a bad season, but the moves the Giants made were worse. They traded for Kenny Golladay (521 yards) and drafted Kadarius Toney in the first (420 yards). These two players led the WR room in yards with those totals. Shepard followed with 366, and Slayton was at only 339. *Fourth on team in yards.* âą In 2022, Slayton was saved by the mistakes of the past year. Golladay was literally murdered by Brian Daboll and Kadarius Toney was traded. Shepard got injured early, and Slayton easily beat 7th round pick Richie James Jr (569 yards) and FA Isaiah Hodgins (351 yards), as well as glass bones rookie Wandale Robinson (227 yards). *Led team in yards.* âą 2023: Wandale had a better season (525 yards), but third round rookie Jalin Hyatt received minimal playing time (373 yards) and Isaiah Hodgins was faded (230 yards). One year free agent Parris Campbell did nothing, and Shepard was all but gone. *Led team in yards* **All of this is to say,** Darius Slayton is a player I like. He was also bailed out on his down year by a horrible FA signing (Kenny Golladay) that got benched in year two, a horrible 1st round pick (Kadarius Toney) that got traded by year two, and another first round pick that lost a year to injury (Wandale Robinson). His competition before that were 49ers depth chart casualties. Iâd argue his *abilities* are maybe a bit above 5th round level, but his volume is so, so situational due to the Gettleman era fuck ups. This isnât a secret, by the way. The league knows. His two year contract gives a yearly salary of $6.2 million. Tyler Boyd, who will be WR3/4 on the Titans, just signed for $4.5 million. Darnell Mooney, who I mentioned, just got $13 million. Gabe Davis, who sucks, also got $13 million.
On the contrary, this is the best answer in the thread IMO. Everything else is just a bunch of high draft picks who, shockingly, met high expectations. The draft position relation to performance expectation gets more hazy in the later rounds, and with any WR you draft after Round 2, you consider it a successful pick if they become a consistent contributor on a WR2/3 basis. I think the original commenterâs point is at least a more interesting discussion of the concept than having everyone name Luck/Manning/Burrow/InsertGreatPlayerWhoWasATopPickHere
Iâm with you that itâs at least a more interesting discussion! But, realistically, how often do you âexpectâ a 5th round player to be anything more than a depth piece? When you hit on a 5th rounder, itâs usually seen as finding a diamond in the rough. If a team consistently got equivalent production out of 5th rounders as Slayton, theyâd be a consistent SB threat. I think really only the 49ers have had that level of draft abilities lol
I think the original commenterâs point though is that Slayton IS a depth piece. Thereâs just literally nobody else competing for targets. Sort of like how in the NBA if you give a guy 40 minutes a game heâll probably average at least 15pts a game. That doesnât mean heâs a guy a good team should count on for those statsâheâs a guy that only a very bad team would ever count on for those stats. Slayton is the example showing what almost never happens in practiceâthat some guys have a low ceiling and, even if given a huge chance, could not develop into a true WR1. Those guys are usually drafted later, and for good reason, but fans almost never actually get the chance to see what their theoretical ceiling is (since teams know it and seek out better players to take the lead role).
Well, thatâs where I disagree then. Hes a legitimately good player. Not a star, but a worthwhile starter. Getting him in the 5th round and having him produce as he has, has been exceeding expectations. Slayton has had his production in spite of poor team building, not because of it. Your average 5th rounder doesnât get a 2nd contract with the team that drafted them.
It feels like a sort of cop out answer but literally anyone rounds 3-6 who started the league for more than 1 contract length. If you know of them by name and they didn't play for your team....they overachieved. Round 1 is you over achieve or under. Round 1 is dreams of Franchise saving players or dramatic underachieving.Â
I think Round 1 doesnât have to be that black and white. Like I think Taylor Decker is a perfect example of somebody who met expectations and didnât exceed or disappoint. He was a mid-1st round pick and has been a steady LT ever since. He was drafted to be a good LT and thatâs what he is.
4 out of the 5 top picks in the 89 Draft: Troy Aikman was a franchise QB that led the Cowboys to three TITLES. Barry Sanders is arguably the GOAT at RB, something that would be unanimous if he hadn't retired too early after burn out from playing in the dumpsterfire of an organization the Lions are. Deion Sanders is probably the best cover corner of his generation and was also a damn good return man and serviceable receiver. Derrick Thomas was world class pass rusher and HOF who still holds the single game sack record and used to cohold the single season sack record.
I like this. Good post. Thomas was beast mode
Who was the fifth... Never mind, I know the answer (*soft sobbing*).
Chad Kelly was Mr Irrelevant
John Elway and Peyton Manning. 1st picks of the draft. Long HOF careers. 2 rings each
Brandon Graham is a poster boy for this type of question, I think. When he was drafted he was considered a high motor, high effort, high floor prospect and good teammate who graded out as a mid-tier athlete and who would have a ceiling due to his size and physical limitations. It was expected that he would probably be a consistently âVery Goodâ contributor and maybe bag a pro bowl or two, but never an All-Pro level DE. Thatâs exactly what we got. More than a decade as a very good player who contributed to a ton of wins, perennial team captain, made a pro bowl and a 2nd team All Pro, plenty of memorable plays (including the obvious one). For a long time he was viewed as a disappointment and compared to Earl Thomas, but his longevity and the Super Bowl play have turned public opinion in a big way. Not an NFL HOF player, and probably never in the conversation as a top 3-5 edge rusher during his career, but an Eagles HOF lock whoâs undoubtedly going to be doing post-game shows and team-sponsored appearances for years after he retires.
Calvin Johnson.
I wanted to see how long it took for his name to come up, but the guy would've had a billion yards and TDs on the right squad and still went out and was the unanimous best reciever in football.
And yet there's no debate who the best reciever is, because Jerry Rice is just that much better than everyone else. I can't imagine what watching Rice would have been like if watching Megatron was that exciting.Â
Genuinely baffled this wasnât the top comment.
He's been retired for 9 years. In reddit terms, he might as well be Don Maynard.
It's not a good answer. Calvin Johnson exceeded expectations
Did he? I remember reading articles that he was a future HOF before we even drafted him. But that was ESPN and they suck at content, so
Iâm sure those articles existed-I remember the hype for Megatron coming out for sure! But I mean he is one of the best receivers ever, surely no one can expect that
If the expectations were what he was he would have been #1.
So youâre saying he exceeded expectations?
DefinitelyÂ
Tebow and Manziel met my expectations
Eli Manning - First overall pick who won two superbowls, two super bowl MVPs, multiple pro bowls, insane longevity, and is almost definitely going in the HoF
Sauce
I think he over performed expectations, considering he wasn't the 1st CB selected. 1st team all pro in his first 2 seasons is Hall of Fame trajectory.
Yeah but a ton of people were confused the Texans took Stingley over Sauce at the time, so I think it counts
Stingley hasn't even been bad, he's just not Sauce.Â
Not allowing a TD all throughout college and then still not allowing one in the NFL so far (technically) is kinda wild
Myles Garrett
Quenton Nelson comes to mind for me. He was exactly what people thought he would be.
I mean everyone knew Penei Sewell was a monster, he is a monster
D'Brickashaw Ferguson, NY Jets. Played every snap of his career (except one), and played at just below a HOF level. Damn, damn good player even if not a transcendent one. Very reliable.
Tua! Smart as heck with great accuracy that lacks the elite physical tools and has injury concerns. Hes been exactly as advertised when it comes to the good AND the bad. Sticking with the dolphins, Iâd also say Jake Long for the first three years of his career. People forget now, but from day 1 he was no worse than the 3rd best LT in the game and very well may have been the best in those three years. Classic case of âmonster of a player derailed by injuriesâ.
Jake Mathews âYou could out him at LT and not worry about it for the next 10 yearsâ and thatâs exactly what happened.
As much as I love Randy Moss, there were too many off the field questions about him and his expectations in the NFL were all over the place. They did say if he could focus on the game and stay out of trouble, he could be a force, which he was. Megatron and Larry Fitzgerald were both hailed as the next great NFL receivers and backed that up. Myles Garrett so far has lived up to the hype.
Jamarr Chase
Iâll die on the hill Bengals should have drafted Sewell but that doesnât take anything away from Chaseâs career. He 100% lived up to his draft position.
Will âMayo Boyâ Levis had an awesome debut last year against the Falcons. Then there were those last 2 minutes in Miami.
I mean, Aaron Donald has to be. First DT taken in 2014. Excellent combine scores. The only thing they got wrong was his grading, putting him as a backup or special teams guy. Otherwise, he was a probowler every year he played and was considered the best at his position from start to finish. Rams drafted him first round, and he played like it every year.
Brandon Weedon everyone was like wtf. And then they watched and said wtf was that?
Kyle Hamilton has been fantastic
Eric Decker. I was at Minnesota as a student while he was here. He looked about the same in the league as he did in college. Hot take, Baker Mayfield. He has had a weird road but landing in that 10-15 best starter range felt right.
How about Andy Dalton? He was a high 2nd rounder, has had a long, decent but not great career. Seems about right.
In the spirit of the true intention of the question, here are some Ravens 2nd rounders who played exactly like a 2nd rounder should: Tyus Bowser Timmy Jernigan Torrey Smith Paul Kruger Chris Chester Dwan Edwards Anthony Weaver Gary Baxter
Lane Johnson 3rd overall in 2013 Future HOF
Andrew Thomas is one of the extremely few Giants picks that has been an absolute stud
Mike Evans. There's really no descriptions that I need to give to validate this. He's an amazing WR and his longevity and play makes him too golden.