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pedrolopa

0 simplex/focus in 2k wings is absurd jesus[](https://www.reddit.com/r/pathofexile/?f=flair_name%3A%22Data%22)


UnintelligentSlime

I found one of each in about 200-300 bps this league. I only ran full opened blueprints (not full reveal, just opened every wing) When I mentioned that in another thread, some people responded that there’s a theory that 4-wing blueprints have different weights on the special jewelry when they’re opened all the way.


Imfillmore

I haven’t heisted but that would be consistent with a near identical post earlier the league. One wing bps 2k no expensive jewelry from like a month ago


sirgog

Sample sizes are too small to draw conclusions but I definitely am suspicious. Testing this is on my radar. Also need to test the theory that curios scale with the number of area mods or with area quantity. Two things make me suspicious - the fact that the wings have different costs to unveil from each other, and that there was a 3.23 challenge to do a 100% quant blueprint. That latter was weird.


YinsYangs

I am a massive noob and my sample size is tiny, but I love your videos so I figured I would share my results. I saw this thread so I bought 40 Blueprints with 4 wings each. Bought enough markers to reveal them all and rolled them all to a minimum of 60% quant. Ran them as fast as possible looking for simplex/focused/helical. Unsurprisingly, I found none, and the whole thing was massively unprofitable so am done for sure. Just figured I would share my tiny bit of data with you.


SunRiseStudios

> the fact that the wings have different costs to unveil from each other Wings have different number and types of reward rooms. This is probably why they have different cost. > that there was a 3.23 challenge to do a 100% quant blueprint. That latter was weird. Running content with certain quant is typical challenge objective. ... Both of these things are easily explainable.


sirgog

Different types of reward rooms exist, but at monster level 83, literally every 4 wing blueprint on trade has exactly 28 reward rooms. Quant objectives are common but only where there's a loot incentive, AFAIR. There's also the really big outliers in tempering orb drop rates that have been reported in 1-wing prints and 4-wing full unveiled prints. Could be other factors too - required rogue levels, etc.


SunRiseStudios

> Different types of reward rooms exist, but at monster level 83, literally every 4 wing blueprint on trade has exactly 28 reward rooms. I meant number of rewards per wing, not per BP. If it's the same across wings there are still different types of rewards. Also other things might influence it like number of small chests, number of doors, number of traps, etc. etc. I think it would be interesting to check whether more expensive wings have better final rewards than less expensive ones. > Quant objectives are common but only where there's a loot incentive, AFAIR. There is quant incentive - you get more Rogue gear and random drops. Also is there any content where you can roll quant and it would do nothing? That would be redundant system.


sirgog

More expensive wings is on my radar to test. > Also is there any content where you can roll quant and it would do nothing? Harbingers drop the same shard explosions on a T1 scoured map or on a T16 100% deli 8-mod map. I've reverified this in the last week. Boss-tied divination cards (e.g. Brush, Paint and Palette or I See Brothers) don't scale with quantity. Agree you get more drops from trash monsters in rolled heists, but that's never the reason people heist.


vittiu

While heisting for an alternate scepter on ssf earlier this league, I think I felt the same way. I started by blasting blueprints without revealing them since I didn’t want to run too many contracts, but I saved up the fully revealed ones that dropped because of the atlas tree. When I got to those, I felt like all curios loot was strictly better, not only I got a lot more pure divines, even the replicas I was finding were rarer. Ended up getting my alternating scepter in one of the fully revealed ones after an entire week of heisting, didn’t count wings but it was definitely in the multiple hundreds


hwasung

The best part is them saying theyve never dropped one, have done over 5k wings this league but only recorded the last 2k


dude132456789

I think this brings more evidence to the rumor that you need to run reveals for good amulets.


heglion

There isn't enough data yet to make this a viable hypothesis. From my data, and data captured by fishcord (3.8k wings), amulets are appearing in 1 in 1000 wings. So we maybe know about 10-12 document drops in the larger sets. This is not even remotely close to say anything about the drop distribution.


heglion

Also, in the 3.5k undocumented wings I've run fully revealed, I have dropped 1 focused and 6 astrolabes.


UnintelligentSlime

I found 1 of each (simplex & focused) within 200-300 total blueprints this league, only running them with all wings revealed (didn’t bother with rooms).


heglion

I just checked my data in TraXile. I did 2817 BPs with all rooms revealed (around 11300 wings total with the 2000 documented). I found a total of 9 amulets. You got lucky :)


UnintelligentSlime

I mean, I definitely did, but if you found 0 in 2k wings, it seems to also be the case that you got unlucky. Also, your data from full reveals suggests about a 1:1000 wings drop rate for full revealed rooms, and your data from your 2k un-revealed doesn’t match that rate. While I definitely got lucky getting 2 in 1k wings, you would also have to get very unlucky to get 0 in 2k wings. Since you claim that there isn’t enough data to suggest a difference between revealed/unrevealed, I think it logically follows that there also isnt enough data to prove that that isn’t the case. I don’t really care either way, I like heisting and I’ll keep doing it the way I prefer, just thought I’d share my results in case it provided any info.


heglion

I dropped two astrolabes in 2k. And assuming 2 in 1k you got holds, that's 1 in 5000 curio boxes, which is 0.02%. I've seen 10k curios in this, so chance of not getting any is 13%. That's quite likely.


dude132456789

True enough.


AU_Cav

u/SirGog we need you!


sirgog

Lol your ping got me just as I'd left the house. I'm considering a well controlled test on this hypothesis. Would entail getting a bunch of people recording every drop option in four wing heists that have been manually unveiled. Tbh most of the real data that matters isn't observed drop rates of the rare stuff. It's the common stuff. That's why in my current Harbinger testing I'm paying more attention to alteration shard drop rates than to fracturing or exalt shard rates.


heglion

Hmm. I'll link it later, but in fishcord data set (3.8k wings with fully noted curio drops):some common replicas have pretty similar drop rates (Veil, Prismweave, Leer Cast, etc. ) of 300-330. So, in theory, if in 5-10k wings the rate would be noticeably different, that could be a valid indicator


sirgog

Yeah. I want to carefully control a test though. Working on Harbinger stuff at the moment.


pewsquare

Noice, another few data points towards simplex and focused being rarer than astrolabes. Thank you for your sacrifice brave soul, and thank you for actually running a tally on all drops not just the valuable ones.


Twodeegee

> Noice, another few data points towards simplex and focused being rarer than astrolabes. You simply can't make this conclusion. There's a been a single amulet drop. If you want to test this, you have to recruit like 20-30 people, if not more, to all run 2k+ blueprints and commit to posting the results no matter what. The problems with taking conclusions from this is you simply don't know if there's any bias in play. Maybe someone has only decided to post because they've gotten unlucky, or because they got lucky, or anything else. You *NEED* a controlled experiment to draw conclusions, or a single dataset (That means: a single person who runs them, not random data put together) that's so large that even taking into account possible biases you could make reasonably certain statements that something is the case.


pewsquare

Bro, by now we have had at least 5 if not more people show their results and consistently with every single one the simplex and focused are rarer than astrolabe. You can still argue that simplex and focused are the same rarity tier, but astrolabe is by far more common if we can believe everyone posting their statistics. And no, you don't need a single person running them all, as long as people properly write down all the bases they come across. Community data gathering worked with all the other decoding so far in PoE, but for some reason it won't work with this?


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pathofexile-ModTeam

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atarosgp

This demoralizes my hunt for replica alberon in ssf. I wanted to make a str stacker chaos cyclone as last league build and that's the last piece I'm missing. I'm only at give or take 450 wings now (running 3/4 winged white 83 blueprints). :(


heglion

Yeah. Alberon's are really really rare. And there is no way to target farm them, unfortunately. But as a helpful point. Fishcord collected data from 3800 wings and they've seen Alberon's 12 times. So my result in this row are likely on the unlucky side.


SoulofArtoria

Any idea what is the odds of finding a %attribute synthesis ring from the jewellery chest in heist? I also have been doing quite a bit of heisting in my ssf run this league. Haven't kept count but should be at least around \~100 heist blueprints, always fully revealed. Even got 1 alberon, still no %str ring on sight or helical ring.


Voluminousviscosity

Nice Simplex and Focused(s) you found; truly an SSF friendly mechanic


wolviesaurus

To be fair, no content in the game requires any of them. At least they're targettable, even if the cross-section is quantum sized.


Dex8172

PoE is NOT balanced for SSF. The chasm between what's possible in SSF and what's possible in trade becomes wider and wider every league. SSF players, like me, are complete idiots.


sirgog

SSF is a hard mode. A whole bunch of mechanics don't work well for people who opt into hard modes. Trying to get a Simplex in SSF is like trying to get Shavwraps in Ruthless or the Wraithlord helm in Hardcore. People who opt into hard modes should know that - especially a hard mode that's as knowledge-based as SSF is.


d1amxnd

heistbad


_Quarterstaff_

- Heist bad! this truly brings 4040 together as a community


Far_Donut5619

Maybe you are being ironic and I missed it but 23 div per hour is pretty decent 


HyperFanTaim

This barely beating barrel&go is just funny to me.


Hodorous

That div card drop rate is kinda sad also. Double nerf hit so hard that I don't enjoy opening them at all. Next league I focus only on job speed since everything else is butchered.


XxXKakekSugionoXxX

2K wing and 0 simplex,yep ain't no way Im going to farm heist.


jnnyMnny

... And what are the results for your mental health ? Lol, I wonder how people ca do these without buring out.


sentimentalwhore

600ms+ infinite ehp zdps builds + movie on 2nd screen, you barely have to pay attention


Ociex

This I'm running a literally unkillable build in heist, RF Phox build. I watch anime on the side.


SoulofArtoria

Does watching any specific anime help increasing the chance of finding helical ring?


Addled_Engineer

I dropped mine watching My Hero Academia


Ociex

I'm at 600 blueprints and casually watching romcoms, maybe I'm doing it wrong.


Jaded_Permit_7209

Can you give me a short rundown on how your strategy works, assuming the person knows very little about Heist?


heglion

It's quite simple. 1. Buy blueprints 2. Launch blueprint 3. Run to the end while opening currency, divination and jewellery rooms 4. If nothing good, run back to the entrance. 5. If something good, take it. And run back to the entrance.


sirgog

I think I'd take Metamorph rewards over currency.


Jaded_Permit_7209

Any particular Blueprints you target? Do you reveal?


heglion

No and no.


Jaded_Permit_7209

Thank you friend 😀


Farqueue-

blueprints no longer have specific reward types at the end room, they're all the same now FYI.


Jaded_Permit_7209

Thanks very useful information. I didn't know that.


mad_hatter3

Div rooms are still worth it? It feels shitty opening their chests and getting 1-2x stacked deck and nothing else


DanteSHK

I still open them, got 2 curation scarabs. Stacked decks heavily nerfed though.


Tornado_of_Sharks

For reference, is 23.38 div/h a good rate for endgame farming? I rarely get that far into the endgame of a league.


neophyte_DQT

the other guy is basically right, this league is kind of fcked in terms of currency / h metrics. IMO, when looking at div / h metric, also need to look at how much friction there is to start + how annoying it is to maintain and sell off your goods specifically for heist, it has some annoying setup factors (leveling and equipping rogues, bulk buying BPs), but some very easy aspects (weak characters OK, no complicated juicing, brain off gameplay, easy to liquidate). So I'd say 23 div/hr is pretty solid, not as profitable compared to juiced mapping


Baschish

We don't have a base anymore since this league we had 100 div/h strategies and many was gutted, also the measure of div/h doesn't mean so much because usually that doesn't count the time you spend to sell everything and if you sell everything, so this numbers are very dubious and can be measure way different for each one. Also good / bad it depends a reference, 23div/h is good if you were farming 10div/h but also can be bad if you are farming 50div/h... So you come here and still can't conclude if 23div/h is good or bad, yeah that's the point, the best you can do is farm yourself and make your own calculates using your own metrics. In general everything you max out and be efficient doing will generate a good amount of currency, especially if it's a mechanic like Heist who the majority of people hate to do. Since the game is less stable is pretty hard old content be competitive with unbalanced new stuff like T17s, but do new cool stuff also means you're competing with more people, so you'll generate a good amount of currency but also spend a good amount.


magpye1983

On the point of not being able to tell if a raw dropped divine was natural or converted; It’d be nice if there were some sound effect when a loot conversion took place. It’d show that something is happening.


SatimyReturns

I feel like getting the blueprint fully revealed on the atlas tree is pretty trivial and then you just go to heist prison after you have a bunch of them


heglion

With full heist spec on tree and heist on the map machine I am getting around 60-70 bps per 100 maps. That's 6-7 fully revealed per 100 maps.


SatimyReturns

If you’re only doing 1 wing on 2000 that’s equivalent to roughly 500 full revealed ones right?


heglion

More like 700ish. I think roughly 1/3 rolls 4 wing and 2/3 3 wing.


DetectiveFun1718

What about the other heist uniques? If they're not included would the number be 0? I am wondering about replica shroud of the lightless or iron mass.


heglion

No, that only means I wasn't tracking them. From cursory observations, Iron Mass wasn't that uncommon, I'd guess 1 in 200-300 wings. Shroud of the lightless on the other hand. Seen 2 the whole league. So like 5-6k wings.


aleksandar94

How rare is the chaos to divine trinket compared to simplex/ replica headhunter?


heglion

So based on fishcord data, you see roughly one trinket per 3 wings. Mod is extremely rare, 1 in 4711. So... rare :) Like very very very very rare. 1 in 14130 wings or so rare. Simplex should be around 1 in 3000.


SumoSect

Nice. Thank you for sharing your data.


rainmeadow

Thank you for this! I‘m currently running all my Blueprints I‘ve farmed in previous leagues in SSF Standard to finally get my hands on Alberon‘s - from your data, my odds look pretty awful. Had 2k wings in total, I‘m down to 700ish and still haven‘t seen them (got multiple other rare Replicas, though). Found 4 Astrolabes - yeah! (no Simplex or Focused)


Wobbelblob

regarding that build, how feasible is it on a budget? Because I nearly wanted to close the pobb.in link when I saw the amulet alone :D


heglion

You can find specialized heist runners. Look for pathfinders using ichimonji on poe.ninja. Those are around 200d total or less.


No-Comment1925

I'm new and I don't know what Heist is. What are you supposed to do, how to be good at it


KalaniKawehiKapono

Did you open any side rooms? Seems like the chaos to divine trinket isnt really worth it unless you focus quite a bit on currency rooms


heglion

I have opened all the currency, jewellery and divination rooms on the way.


KalaniKawehiKapono

Interesting, so even if you focus on currency rooms it seems that buying a trinket like that is barely worth it unless one spends a very long time heisting (at the usual prices these trinkets go for at least)


heglion

Remember, that I wasn't unveiling extra currency rooms. You can gather blueprints that have 10-14 currency rooms per BP and drop a lot more. Also, trinket is sellable. So you can think about it as a loan that generates you extra money.


AsmodeusWins

Still sane exile?


SilverBurger

0 Simplex? jfc.


Doilus

any chance of a pob for your build?


heglion

It's in the post.


Majirayan

I guarantee you those are wrong numbers. The non Helical/Simplex jewelry you're lucky to get 10c out of those. A lot of those replicas are also not divine worthy unless they get a good corrupt or 6 link on th armor.


Skyling9

Does rarity affect the prize at the end or there wouldn't be any difference on running white, blue, or yellow tier bps?


heglion

Not that we know of. I am running all my heist blueprints normal.


Moyes2men

Do I need to level the thieves again if I start a new character like yours?


Xerexs

ANECDOTAL.. but I just hit a Simplex on a fully revealed blue print I bought to finish challenges.


sptBlack

![gif](emote|free_emotes_pack|dizzy_face)


Nozmos19

Did you run white blueprint or you orb them to yellow ?


runvus

For Science!


NerohPoE

Nice try, you still won't get me to run heist !