I mean, yeah, but also I don't think the other teams are going to take it lying down unless the worst case of group 2 syndrome to ever manifest manifests. Nor do I think that gains by UAE in the first week are necessarily uncatchable in the 2nd and 3rd. ~~Roglic I beg of you don't crack~~
Because the other teammates still have domestiques that are here to do a job for their leaders and because they have their own goals at the Tour.
If it is a teams tactic to make the race hard early to see if they can drop Vingegaard and they feel like UAE isn't doing it as much as they would like then they can either use their own domestiques to influence the way they want to or they can sit back, appease the "dont work with favourite" folk, and have nothing to show for it
I don't think Jonas has a choice. Since he's likely undercooked, getting fried out in first week is not something he can really influence. He's really at the mercy of other teams.
If he's not undercooked, then other teams don't have a chance anyway, unless Visma can't dictate a brutal tempo on most stages like they did last year, which is a possibility given the health problems they have. In this case, other teams pacing hard could play right into Jonas' hands.
I mean week 3 is prime Jonas parcour and the last thing you want is to be generous and let him ride himself into shape.
UAE has the team and the stages in week 1 to discover his limit early. If Pogi wants to win he needs time heading into the last week and pressing LRB early grants him that while also getting a picture of Jonas’s shape.
If I were UAE, I'd ride even on rest days and do double stages. That way they, can wrap the race 10 days early
edit : And Tadej can come home and sleep
I had no idea it didn't have its usual finish.
We had been eyeing up a weekend in Paris to be around for the opening ceremony a d to catch the end of the race. Would have been an amazing weekend.
Such a shame.
Paris is in complete mayhem this year with the olympics, the city is to be avoided for the whole event, it's going to be a nightmare to move around with security measure and all that surrounds the olympics
I mean I distinctly remember people going on and on about how that would be the case for London, then when the games actually started… absolutely nothing changed lol
Mas last 3 GTs without crashing out he was 6th, 2nd and 2nd. At the same time he has 6 career wins.
To conclude that he would be better off a stage hunter is wild to me.
Only Evenpeol, Vingegaard, Pogacar and Roglic are allowed to go for GC. Everyone else is PATHETIC and DUMB and DELUSIONAL for attempting it and being top 10 at the Tour or podiuming a grand tour is WEAK and for LOSERS.
People also forget that Movistar needs his GC points to avoid relegation. Finishing 8th with no stage wins is far better for movistar than finishing 25th and getting 2nd on a stage a few times.
Of course he could win mountain stages, but not on his own.
Either you de dedicate half the team to pace the breakaway, or you hope the other riders forgets that his climbing ability is better than theirs.
Absolutely one or more capable climbers would try to gap him on the descends.
That’s probably what will happen, but I want a Tour actually close and exciting until the last day or two - for GC. It always pretty great for the other classifications and random breaks of the day.
He can have 5min lead and it’s still close. We finish with a TT, anything can happen.
You don’t wanna lose 4min in TT to Jonas for being scared of crashing.
Still full gaz, or 98%.
Also, pogi can blow any time in week 3, so that’s also not secure
I'm not sure it's a fair call, I mean he famously dicked Roglic on the stage 20 TT in the tour and in his debut grand tour in his first year pro won stage 20 in the vuelta. He's also had a number of other GTs without incident in the last week.
Last year his tour prep was compromised so it hardly seems fair to give him a reputation over that.
It's not about Pogacar being weak, it's assumed relative to Vingegaard, not relative to Roglic or any other.
Apart from Vinge's two Tour wins, remember also Pogacar smashing everyone in the beginning of Tour 2021, then Vingegaard dropping him clean on Ventoux later, and Vingegaard being miserable in first half of Vuelta 2023 and winning every stage he wanted in second half.
If all were normal I'd be fully on board! But assuming Jonas will be fighting fit to me seems like insanity. I've even heard people suggesting that he'll be training and healing as the tour goes on.
This is an event renowned for destroying riders health and blood values. So to suggest someone coming back from serious injury will use it to improve their wellbeing seems bonkers.
Right. The original statement was simply that *historically*, Vingegaard has done better than Pogacar in the last part of the TDF.
I agree there is probably not going to be that kind of story this year.
They all have an Achilles heel, so it's going to be fun to see who struggles!
But my money would not be on the bloke who was in hospital not that long ago, haha.
This mentality is what leads to organizers making routes that only allows small gaps to form and then end it with a TT. Giro organizers probably thinks last years GC battle was a success despite it being a complete snoozefest until the final TT.
It's not just the parcours fault. The riders make the race. And there weren't exactly the most inspiring trio going for the podium when it comes to racing.
Yeah especially Pogi breaking before when altitude and the 3rd week comes to play.
Still if he gets any significant amount of time on galibier lets say 2-4 min. It's still difficult to get that back from him, if he rides conservatively.
That being said Pog from Giro seemed next level compared to the one before. (we say this every god-damned year)
Conservative? Pogi? If he only won Giro by 5 min and sat in moves, I would say this is possible. I don’t think Pogi can not go if the move is there. Him putting 10 min into everybody, and always racing when it’s on, instead of trying conserve energy might be his undoing
If anybody can complete double, it’s him, this year, if you throw the ball, that dog runs, even if it isn’t in his best interests that day. Early lead and cracking in week 3 is possible. I think of what Contador looked like trying double. Early attack and then losing time
Either way I’m super excited for Tour, a lot of questions and I don’t know what’s going to happen. Last few years there was one script (Jonas bides time, until TT and high mountain stage that’s hot) now anything could happen
But who can realistically break him? Jonas is just back from a serious crash and likely won’t have his usual level of performance. Roglic isn’t near Pogi and will crash, Remco isn’t a realistic threat… I don’t think there’s the competition required to really push Pogi beyond his limits, and that’s the only way to break him.
Numbers can and have broken Pog before.
Even if individually this year Remco, Vingegaard-Hansen and Primož haven't been close to him this year. Together they make a formidable challenge even to Pog
Plus Jonas has always been a long haul guy whereas Pogi has gotten tired near the end of the last 2 TdF’s. And since he has a Giro in his legs, yah. We’ll see.
Everyone and their aunt is certain about what will happen before the tour.
Fact is this is totally unknown territory. Pogi trying the double, Jonas having been out for weeks. Third week is a huge question mark.
In grand tours Jonas and Pogi have been heads and shoulders above everyone for a couple of years. In the Giro noone else was close to their level. The Giro means nothing, Jonas state means everything.
I’m a big fan of their software. Also a huge fan of Jumbo. It was a match made in heaven. They crushed me by canceling their sponsorship so I don’t shop there. Also don’t shop there because I am in the US and it would make an expensive trip to the grocery store.
This is all a lie. I couldn’t care less about the companies and root for the riders.
“It’s not about the winning it’s about panache” is what you say when your guy isn’t winning with panache, and the other guy is winning without it.
Now the other guy is winning with panache, so cheer for him! I imagine there’s also a significant element of “at least it’s not those VismaLAB connards winning again”
If we ignore memes cause Madiot, what he is saying about how it will play into his outlook and tactics is interesting in how open he is about it before the race.
>So in the third week, just like in the Giro d’Italia," where Pogačar crushed the opposition, "they’ll be handing out ‘exit gift vouchers'
Basically saying Pogi and UAE will dominate the first half of the race and it might be smarter for his riders to target the later half. Then again If Jonas have been destroyed in week one he might be looking to get a win and salvage his Tour in week 3 so who knows.
I do find it hilarious that we have one of the leading voices in cycling basically going yeah Pogi will win the race piss easy, not even worth worrying about. I think its pretty clear fans are desperate for a GC battle, even if the signs point towards domination.
I'd love a proper gc battle. Realistically, the last one was Giro 23. We've had a tour and a giro dominated with a rider winning by 7 (with 10 to third) minutes and 10 minutes. And a vuelta which whilst it was great that sepp won, it wasn't a proper gc battle, visma had absolute control. And locked out the podium. And anyway, giro 23 was a bit dull for gc and the leader and another genuine win contender had to drop out.
A proper gc battle is really needed. Domination and crashes/illness aren't fun, nor are they good for the sport. Let's hope this tour is a good one and everyone finishes safely.
The Tour last year had a great GC battle that lasted until the 2nd to last GC stage. If we go back and look at the stages before the Pogacar collapse on stage 17 it was constant hits back and forth.
I'm not neutral as a Dane, but I would imagine the most neutral fans enjoyed watching them for more than 2/3 of the race exchanging blows.
That's true. Maybe I'm misremembering but to me it always felt inevitable vingegaard was winning from when he took a fair amount of time early on. Most of what pogacar gained back was bonus seconds and short sprints with small gaps here and there. Which was always going to happen as that's not jonas' strength, however Jonas never looked like he was in trouble and when pog was attacking he rarely got proper separation.
> I'd love a proper gc battle. Realistically, the last one was Giro 23.
In what world was that race 'a battle'? It was a no drop group ride for 2 weeks that was forcefully mercy killed on the last day with an ITT. The only GC drama in the entire race was the 2 mins after Roglic's mechanical before it was abundantly clear he was still going to win and the ITT Remco won and subsequently withdrew after
What are you on about? I caveated that giro and said it was dull and 2 jersey contenders dropped out, read my comment properly. It was still a gc battle in the sense that it was close and no one dominated. Just because you didn't enjoy it doesn't mean it didn't happen. I'm talking about the need for good competition, in GC terms, this giro was more boring than the last one (although it was a fantastic giro overall in my opinion).
I think the start is too easy to take much more than a minute in the first 4 stages and perhaps even to easy for significant GC gaps at all.
Most of the climbs on stage 1 are not all that steep and its 25k flat to the finish.
Stage 2 is also only one 2k climb in the last 3k and not crazy difficult before that.
Stage 4 is only 5-6% tempo grinders before the final 6k on the Galibier and there is again a long downhill.
Yeah I posted a similar feeling some days ago: https://old.reddit.com/r/peloton/comments/1df17d5/results_thread_2024_tour_de_suisse_stage_5_me_2uwt/l8jzluz/
People are getting overhyped like crazy for the week 1 GC battle, but as far as GC goes it's not great imo. Seems promising for breakaway action though.
I think think there's significant chances that the yellow jersey is worn by a breakaway rider of day 1 or 2 throughout the first week.
Literally no one but Visma knows where Jonas is at, certainly not this french clown.
If Pogi made it to week 3 looking like a winner, with only a national TT as prep and less recovery time, then why the fk should Jonas, who has the best recovery and peak form off any riders, not be able to the do same?
If Jonas have not reach his peak form yet(pre tour de france peak form) then certainly he will do it doing the tour and might recover what he lost and win the 3 week, if that enough to win the tour, is yet to be seen, but to think he is without chances, is like you didn't witness the last 2 tours and don't know Jonas at all.
the gap between the 2 was not that big last year. Jonas is 100% cooked in this battle. Barring some kind of freak accident with Pogacar, his best bet is getting podium
The gap was over seven minutes by the end of the race. That’s huge. It was 2:45 in 2022 and Pogacar won his two tours by 5:20 and 0:59.
Pogo won the Giro by 9 minute La and people say he dominated so by that measure Jonas dominated Pogi last year.
Pogi had a broken wrist last year. Yeah, he said it didn't affect him, but that was surely bravado because of course a breaking a wrist in late April is a detriment, both for training and racing.
Pog cracked twice last year *and* got severely beaten on the TT. In return he managed to get bonus seconds and some small gaps on Vingegaard in the first week (one of which was due to a tactical gamble by Visma that backfired).
No doubt Pog is the greatest rider in the world overall, but he was significantly beat at the Tour twice in a row to the point where people were seriously debating if he should stop focusing on trying to win the Tour.
This year he's got an extra grand tour in the legs and people are talking about him as if he's unbeatable. Objectively speaking he's going to be in worse shape than last year due to the Giro, so it all hinges on the shape of Vingegaard, which is anybody's guess. Jonas could be at 99% or he could be at 80%. We just don't know yet.
> to the point where people were seriously debating if he should stop focusing on trying to win the Tour.
Was that ever really a take? I thought it was always ironic
I would be extremely pissed if Tadej finishes week 1 with more than a minute to the second. I mean there are like 2 stages, galibier and ITT where he can really gain time but if he drops the others on stages like 1 its just sad. I refuse to believe that.
imho UAE should get on it , vingegaard has been training for a very long time, hard mountain stages are in the second and third week so unless jonas isn't dropped first week everyone's having a bad time until his form starts kicking in. Plateau de Beille, isola are really perfect finishes for him to be really honest. Pla d'adet not so much since it isn't very long or hard steep by the end.
Marc Madiot, while I respect the man, is a jackass for saying this. Even if Pogi’s the massive favorite. Shut up and let the riders race. Anything can happen, anyone can have a great day or a shit day.
Yeah this. I mean, who knows. We don't know Jonas is in any kind of shape, we don't know how the Giro might affect Pogi's 3-week endurance, we don't know if Roglic is quite on the level to compete for the win, and we certainly haven't a clue how Remco will fare. Can't wait!
The third week is absolutely brutal, not just the final TT but all the climbing. I think pogi would need to somehow lead by 10 minutes after the first TT in order for me to declare the tour over
This Tour feels like an old-fashioned individual start 50 km xc ski race (which, for those in non-winter sport countries, was the single greatest tv event there was, that, for reasons obscure, was removed from international competitions some 30 years ago and replaced with the much, much blander mass-start.) The thing that made them particularly great was that you knew that everything could change dramatically in the last fifth of the race.
With all of the Big Four having had unusual build-ups and/or being prone to fade in grand tours, there's reason to believe that all of them might lose huge amounts of time in the third week. In fact I'm sure of it.
Tl/dr: Madiot has lost it!
Even if Pogacar takes 5 minutes on the first 4 stages. He can EASILY lose that in the 3rd week.
I would not call the win that early. We all know Vingegaard gets better and better for every week. And i don't care what anybody says, but riding the Giro even if he almost used it as a training camp will still add some fatigue, specially in the 3rd week.
Also the UAE team can get in serious trouble on stages with side-wind, or even if Pogacar have a mechanical issue. The team is not that good on flat roads, only Wellens and Pollit to pull against the likes of Van Aert, Tratnik, Benoot, Laporte, and even Jorgensen is also good on flat.
I would actually not be surprised if Vingegaard drop Pogi on the last mountain stages and then win the TT, takes the yellow jersey and secure his 3rd TDF victory.
Marc Madiot confirming that he is an /r/peloton commenter by announcing the tour is over after the 4th stage.
If I were UAE, I would go all in to make sure it's over in the first week .... said every armchair race tactician on earth.
I mean if everyone is saying they should do it, that probably means it isn't a bad strategy?
I mean, yeah, but also I don't think the other teams are going to take it lying down unless the worst case of group 2 syndrome to ever manifest manifests. Nor do I think that gains by UAE in the first week are necessarily uncatchable in the 2nd and 3rd. ~~Roglic I beg of you don't crack~~
imo bora and evenepoel should work with UAE to at least try and test vingegaard in the beginning
UAE is so strong, why any other team would be assisting them is beyond comprehension. They are stronger than Visma was last year.
it was arguable initially, but now with kuss out there’s no question.
Because the other teammates still have domestiques that are here to do a job for their leaders and because they have their own goals at the Tour. If it is a teams tactic to make the race hard early to see if they can drop Vingegaard and they feel like UAE isn't doing it as much as they would like then they can either use their own domestiques to influence the way they want to or they can sit back, appease the "dont work with favourite" folk, and have nothing to show for it
At Giro Ineos didn't seem to have any issues with taking Pogi along.. ;)
I don't think Jonas has a choice. Since he's likely undercooked, getting fried out in first week is not something he can really influence. He's really at the mercy of other teams. If he's not undercooked, then other teams don't have a chance anyway, unless Visma can't dictate a brutal tempo on most stages like they did last year, which is a possibility given the health problems they have. In this case, other teams pacing hard could play right into Jonas' hands.
Why doesn’t Pogi have a 20 minute GC lead after four stages is he stupid?
I mean week 3 is prime Jonas parcour and the last thing you want is to be generous and let him ride himself into shape. UAE has the team and the stages in week 1 to discover his limit early. If Pogi wants to win he needs time heading into the last week and pressing LRB early grants him that while also getting a picture of Jonas’s shape.
…and Johan Bruyneel.
If I were UAE, I'd ride even on rest days and do double stages. That way they, can wrap the race 10 days early edit : And Tadej can come home and sleep
Madiot ready to send some beer crates to the Visma bus after Pogi drops everyone on Galibier.
The plan is slightly different. The team staff will drink the beer first, then deliver it to the tires of the Visma bus late at night.
Surely he means gaudu will be 10 minutes behind and out of it completely
I bet that 10 minutes down in Paris will be a podium spot
>10 minutes down in Paris No Paris this year because of the olympics
“Paris” in this case is a state of mind.
Which is Nice.
Wrong again, Nice is pretty far from Paris.
I mar seille, you did nantes get the joke. You rouen ed the thread only toulouse the argument.
I had no idea it didn't have its usual finish. We had been eyeing up a weekend in Paris to be around for the opening ceremony a d to catch the end of the race. Would have been an amazing weekend. Such a shame.
Paris is in complete mayhem this year with the olympics, the city is to be avoided for the whole event, it's going to be a nightmare to move around with security measure and all that surrounds the olympics
I mean I distinctly remember people going on and on about how that would be the case for London, then when the games actually started… absolutely nothing changed lol
Lmfao gaudu will not finish in top 10 barely top 20
Lmfao gaudu will not finish in top 20 barely top 30
yes someone understands
Would be good for him. Gaudu should be stage hunting instead of this delusional GC attempt every year. Throw Enric Mas in that one too.
Mas last 3 GTs without crashing out he was 6th, 2nd and 2nd. At the same time he has 6 career wins. To conclude that he would be better off a stage hunter is wild to me.
Only Evenpeol, Vingegaard, Pogacar and Roglic are allowed to go for GC. Everyone else is PATHETIC and DUMB and DELUSIONAL for attempting it and being top 10 at the Tour or podiuming a grand tour is WEAK and for LOSERS.
You forgot that Roglic is washed and Remco overhyped, so really it's just Pog and Jonas
But Pogacar is tired from the Giro and Vingegaard only returning from injury, so Lutsenko vs Meintjes it is.
He got 4th not long ago. And he had a really good Paris Nice in 2023. But he just doesn’t seem to enter most of the races on his calendar in top form.
People also forget that Movistar needs his GC points to avoid relegation. Finishing 8th with no stage wins is far better for movistar than finishing 25th and getting 2nd on a stage a few times.
Mas doesn't have enough sprint to drop anyone
If only he makes his one attack at the perfect time...
Don't tell me he couldn't win in a mountain stage breakaway
Of course he could win mountain stages, but not on his own. Either you de dedicate half the team to pace the breakaway, or you hope the other riders forgets that his climbing ability is better than theirs. Absolutely one or more capable climbers would try to gap him on the descends.
That’s probably what will happen, but I want a Tour actually close and exciting until the last day or two - for GC. It always pretty great for the other classifications and random breaks of the day.
He can have 5min lead and it’s still close. We finish with a TT, anything can happen. You don’t wanna lose 4min in TT to Jonas for being scared of crashing. Still full gaz, or 98%. Also, pogi can blow any time in week 3, so that’s also not secure
What's the thinking behind him ready to crack at any moment in week 3?
The theory is that Pogi doesn't do well in the heat. Also last year when he cumulatively lost over 7 min to Jonas in stages 16 and 17.
I'm not sure it's a fair call, I mean he famously dicked Roglic on the stage 20 TT in the tour and in his debut grand tour in his first year pro won stage 20 in the vuelta. He's also had a number of other GTs without incident in the last week. Last year his tour prep was compromised so it hardly seems fair to give him a reputation over that.
Oh for sure. I don't agree with the theory.
It's not about Pogacar being weak, it's assumed relative to Vingegaard, not relative to Roglic or any other. Apart from Vinge's two Tour wins, remember also Pogacar smashing everyone in the beginning of Tour 2021, then Vingegaard dropping him clean on Ventoux later, and Vingegaard being miserable in first half of Vuelta 2023 and winning every stage he wanted in second half.
If all were normal I'd be fully on board! But assuming Jonas will be fighting fit to me seems like insanity. I've even heard people suggesting that he'll be training and healing as the tour goes on. This is an event renowned for destroying riders health and blood values. So to suggest someone coming back from serious injury will use it to improve their wellbeing seems bonkers.
Right. The original statement was simply that *historically*, Vingegaard has done better than Pogacar in the last part of the TDF. I agree there is probably not going to be that kind of story this year.
Tour 2020 Pogačar wasn't expending energy like in 2022 and 2023, also it wasn't raced in the July heat but in September
How do you know the energy expenditure?
I'm guesstimating from how Roglič likes to ride and the comparatively few attacks that Pogi made in 2020 as opposed to later editions.
I’m guessing people assume that’s when the effect of the Giro will be truly felt.
I guess it's also betting on the accumulated fatigue from the Giro: it will be his 6th week of GC this year.
Giro in legs Hard racing from start Defending constantly Altitude and heat wears in After 3 weeks it’s boom time Hope not
They all have an Achilles heel, so it's going to be fun to see who struggles! But my money would not be on the bloke who was in hospital not that long ago, haha.
This mentality is what leads to organizers making routes that only allows small gaps to form and then end it with a TT. Giro organizers probably thinks last years GC battle was a success despite it being a complete snoozefest until the final TT.
It's not just the parcours fault. The riders make the race. And there weren't exactly the most inspiring trio going for the podium when it comes to racing.
That Giro would have been way more interesting if Remco didn't get sick.
People who try Giro-Tour double often have 3rd week. I wouldn’t count this race over if Pogi takes an early lead.
> People who try Giro-Tour double often have 3rd week. I would hope so if they try to finish the Tour.
I obviously have a typo in original post, but meh, the idea is there, and it’s not cool to stealth edit after others comment
You don't need to strength edit. Just add this kind of note Edited: added terrible before 3rd week
Oh tell me more about these strength edits. They sound like fun
He obviously have a typo in original post, but meh, the idea is there, and it’s not cool to strength edit after others comment
At least somebody has a sense of humor
Yeah especially Pogi breaking before when altitude and the 3rd week comes to play. Still if he gets any significant amount of time on galibier lets say 2-4 min. It's still difficult to get that back from him, if he rides conservatively. That being said Pog from Giro seemed next level compared to the one before. (we say this every god-damned year)
Conservative? Pogi? If he only won Giro by 5 min and sat in moves, I would say this is possible. I don’t think Pogi can not go if the move is there. Him putting 10 min into everybody, and always racing when it’s on, instead of trying conserve energy might be his undoing If anybody can complete double, it’s him, this year, if you throw the ball, that dog runs, even if it isn’t in his best interests that day. Early lead and cracking in week 3 is possible. I think of what Contador looked like trying double. Early attack and then losing time Either way I’m super excited for Tour, a lot of questions and I don’t know what’s going to happen. Last few years there was one script (Jonas bides time, until TT and high mountain stage that’s hot) now anything could happen
But who can realistically break him? Jonas is just back from a serious crash and likely won’t have his usual level of performance. Roglic isn’t near Pogi and will crash, Remco isn’t a realistic threat… I don’t think there’s the competition required to really push Pogi beyond his limits, and that’s the only way to break him.
Numbers can and have broken Pog before. Even if individually this year Remco, Vingegaard-Hansen and Primož haven't been close to him this year. Together they make a formidable challenge even to Pog
Vingegaard was actually excellent this year up until the terrible crash. He was crushing the races he did, much like Pogi did.
What a strange way of saying that with the Giro in his legs, G is going to wash the floor with all these young guns :)
I’m hoping we get the closest race since 89. Ending on a time trial, we may see Jonas upset a la Lemond/Fignon.
Plus Jonas has always been a long haul guy whereas Pogi has gotten tired near the end of the last 2 TdF’s. And since he has a Giro in his legs, yah. We’ll see.
Everyone and their aunt is certain about what will happen before the tour. Fact is this is totally unknown territory. Pogi trying the double, Jonas having been out for weeks. Third week is a huge question mark. In grand tours Jonas and Pogi have been heads and shoulders above everyone for a couple of years. In the Giro noone else was close to their level. The Giro means nothing, Jonas state means everything.
I hope he is wrong. I’m dreaming of Bora victory. Let’s go Hindley.
Your flair is weird.
I don’t accept Lease A Bike. I’m a fan of Jumbo Visma. Visma LAB can eat a dick. Jk, just haven’t updated it
No team changing allowed!
I’m a big fan of their software. Also a huge fan of Jumbo. It was a match made in heaven. They crushed me by canceling their sponsorship so I don’t shop there. Also don’t shop there because I am in the US and it would make an expensive trip to the grocery store. This is all a lie. I couldn’t care less about the companies and root for the riders.
You had me lmao
Are you a Roglic fan then since he switched from Jumbo to Bora? Still don't get why you'd want Hindley to win then lol
It was a joke because he is riding for Rog.
Alright then, please do change your flair haha
Meh. I just don’t think Jonas is in shape and I’m hoping Pogi is somehow tired from Giro so Rog can win. I’m high on copium.
ok that was a weird rant. Are you ok?
I’m deeply hurt by Jumbo not sponsoring any more. I don’t know if I’m okay or will ever recover.
I would name it Visma - Steal a Bike
But it's not about the winning, right Marc? What about La Panache?
It’s masculine so le panache. But here you can use it without the article
Large beer for you
Santé ! 🍻
“It’s not about the winning it’s about panache” is what you say when your guy isn’t winning with panache, and the other guy is winning without it. Now the other guy is winning with panache, so cheer for him! I imagine there’s also a significant element of “at least it’s not those VismaLAB connards winning again”
Jokes on Marc. I *declared* the Tour over months ago! Ya'diot
He is one of us!
Maidot is a member, definitely! Hoping for one FDJ win, to se visma cry.
If we ignore memes cause Madiot, what he is saying about how it will play into his outlook and tactics is interesting in how open he is about it before the race. >So in the third week, just like in the Giro d’Italia," where Pogačar crushed the opposition, "they’ll be handing out ‘exit gift vouchers' Basically saying Pogi and UAE will dominate the first half of the race and it might be smarter for his riders to target the later half. Then again If Jonas have been destroyed in week one he might be looking to get a win and salvage his Tour in week 3 so who knows. I do find it hilarious that we have one of the leading voices in cycling basically going yeah Pogi will win the race piss easy, not even worth worrying about. I think its pretty clear fans are desperate for a GC battle, even if the signs point towards domination.
I'd love a proper gc battle. Realistically, the last one was Giro 23. We've had a tour and a giro dominated with a rider winning by 7 (with 10 to third) minutes and 10 minutes. And a vuelta which whilst it was great that sepp won, it wasn't a proper gc battle, visma had absolute control. And locked out the podium. And anyway, giro 23 was a bit dull for gc and the leader and another genuine win contender had to drop out. A proper gc battle is really needed. Domination and crashes/illness aren't fun, nor are they good for the sport. Let's hope this tour is a good one and everyone finishes safely.
The Tour last year had a great GC battle that lasted until the 2nd to last GC stage. If we go back and look at the stages before the Pogacar collapse on stage 17 it was constant hits back and forth. I'm not neutral as a Dane, but I would imagine the most neutral fans enjoyed watching them for more than 2/3 of the race exchanging blows.
That's true. Maybe I'm misremembering but to me it always felt inevitable vingegaard was winning from when he took a fair amount of time early on. Most of what pogacar gained back was bonus seconds and short sprints with small gaps here and there. Which was always going to happen as that's not jonas' strength, however Jonas never looked like he was in trouble and when pog was attacking he rarely got proper separation.
I dunno, I think you might be misremembering a bit. Pogi did take decent chunks of time on Stage 6 and Stage 9.
> I'd love a proper gc battle. Realistically, the last one was Giro 23. In what world was that race 'a battle'? It was a no drop group ride for 2 weeks that was forcefully mercy killed on the last day with an ITT. The only GC drama in the entire race was the 2 mins after Roglic's mechanical before it was abundantly clear he was still going to win and the ITT Remco won and subsequently withdrew after
What are you on about? I caveated that giro and said it was dull and 2 jersey contenders dropped out, read my comment properly. It was still a gc battle in the sense that it was close and no one dominated. Just because you didn't enjoy it doesn't mean it didn't happen. I'm talking about the need for good competition, in GC terms, this giro was more boring than the last one (although it was a fantastic giro overall in my opinion).
I think the start is too easy to take much more than a minute in the first 4 stages and perhaps even to easy for significant GC gaps at all. Most of the climbs on stage 1 are not all that steep and its 25k flat to the finish. Stage 2 is also only one 2k climb in the last 3k and not crazy difficult before that. Stage 4 is only 5-6% tempo grinders before the final 6k on the Galibier and there is again a long downhill.
Just counting stage 1,2,4 there's 46 bonus seconds up for grabs. If vingegaard isn't at his peak I can see him losing a significant chunk.
Yeah I posted a similar feeling some days ago: https://old.reddit.com/r/peloton/comments/1df17d5/results_thread_2024_tour_de_suisse_stage_5_me_2uwt/l8jzluz/ People are getting overhyped like crazy for the week 1 GC battle, but as far as GC goes it's not great imo. Seems promising for breakaway action though. I think think there's significant chances that the yellow jersey is worn by a breakaway rider of day 1 or 2 throughout the first week.
Only way the tour is over is if one of the secondary leaders goes up the road in a breakaway and take 5-10 mins of time that can’t be taken back.
Rumour has it that G has ditched the white Oakleys in an attempt to sneak away in one of those breaks….shhhh, don’t tell the Peloton.
It will definitely be over for the French teams, which is clearly what he means.
Probably the best argument that the race won't be over after a week is Madiot confidently saying that.
Literally no one but Visma knows where Jonas is at, certainly not this french clown. If Pogi made it to week 3 looking like a winner, with only a national TT as prep and less recovery time, then why the fk should Jonas, who has the best recovery and peak form off any riders, not be able to the do same? If Jonas have not reach his peak form yet(pre tour de france peak form) then certainly he will do it doing the tour and might recover what he lost and win the 3 week, if that enough to win the tour, is yet to be seen, but to think he is without chances, is like you didn't witness the last 2 tours and don't know Jonas at all.
the gap between the 2 was not that big last year. Jonas is 100% cooked in this battle. Barring some kind of freak accident with Pogacar, his best bet is getting podium
You mean 7 minutes?
The gap was over seven minutes by the end of the race. That’s huge. It was 2:45 in 2022 and Pogacar won his two tours by 5:20 and 0:59. Pogo won the Giro by 9 minute La and people say he dominated so by that measure Jonas dominated Pogi last year.
Pogi had a broken wrist last year. Yeah, he said it didn't affect him, but that was surely bravado because of course a breaking a wrist in late April is a detriment, both for training and racing.
Pog cracked twice last year *and* got severely beaten on the TT. In return he managed to get bonus seconds and some small gaps on Vingegaard in the first week (one of which was due to a tactical gamble by Visma that backfired). No doubt Pog is the greatest rider in the world overall, but he was significantly beat at the Tour twice in a row to the point where people were seriously debating if he should stop focusing on trying to win the Tour. This year he's got an extra grand tour in the legs and people are talking about him as if he's unbeatable. Objectively speaking he's going to be in worse shape than last year due to the Giro, so it all hinges on the shape of Vingegaard, which is anybody's guess. Jonas could be at 99% or he could be at 80%. We just don't know yet.
> to the point where people were seriously debating if he should stop focusing on trying to win the Tour. Was that ever really a take? I thought it was always ironic
People were absolutely saying that maybe he shouldn't make the Tour his top priority and instead go for more classics/monuments.
Rewatch last year.
ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN
Ol’ bucket of ice water is at it again I see
Haha, I mean, with all the insane bad luck Visma has had, yah, they’re really not a threat this year.
I would be extremely pissed if Tadej finishes week 1 with more than a minute to the second. I mean there are like 2 stages, galibier and ITT where he can really gain time but if he drops the others on stages like 1 its just sad. I refuse to believe that.
Yea it's not like Pogacar has been known to drop people with a margin in races like Strade Bianchi or Liege. /s
imho UAE should get on it , vingegaard has been training for a very long time, hard mountain stages are in the second and third week so unless jonas isn't dropped first week everyone's having a bad time until his form starts kicking in. Plateau de Beille, isola are really perfect finishes for him to be really honest. Pla d'adet not so much since it isn't very long or hard steep by the end.
Just because your riders can’t keep up with Pog, doesn’t mean others can’t, Marc
Marc Madiot, while I respect the man, is a jackass for saying this. Even if Pogi’s the massive favorite. Shut up and let the riders race. Anything can happen, anyone can have a great day or a shit day.
Yeah this. I mean, who knows. We don't know Jonas is in any kind of shape, we don't know how the Giro might affect Pogi's 3-week endurance, we don't know if Roglic is quite on the level to compete for the win, and we certainly haven't a clue how Remco will fare. Can't wait!
The third week is absolutely brutal, not just the final TT but all the climbing. I think pogi would need to somehow lead by 10 minutes after the first TT in order for me to declare the tour over
So you are gonna let your riders hunt for stages right?
Why do that when we can focus all our effort on getting GC Gaudu to 47th place?
P
This Tour feels like an old-fashioned individual start 50 km xc ski race (which, for those in non-winter sport countries, was the single greatest tv event there was, that, for reasons obscure, was removed from international competitions some 30 years ago and replaced with the much, much blander mass-start.) The thing that made them particularly great was that you knew that everything could change dramatically in the last fifth of the race. With all of the Big Four having had unusual build-ups and/or being prone to fade in grand tours, there's reason to believe that all of them might lose huge amounts of time in the third week. In fact I'm sure of it. Tl/dr: Madiot has lost it!
Yeah it won’t and he knows it won’t. But he got the attention he wanted I guess.
Theoretically the tour could be over before I get out of bed on Saturday
Roglic probably asking himself why everybody thinks that he is a joke and is not taken seriously.
C’mon Pogi, you can do it.
We all know pogi will have a hard 3rd week, even if he is up 2-3 min after the first week i wouldnt say its over
Even if Pogacar takes 5 minutes on the first 4 stages. He can EASILY lose that in the 3rd week. I would not call the win that early. We all know Vingegaard gets better and better for every week. And i don't care what anybody says, but riding the Giro even if he almost used it as a training camp will still add some fatigue, specially in the 3rd week. Also the UAE team can get in serious trouble on stages with side-wind, or even if Pogacar have a mechanical issue. The team is not that good on flat roads, only Wellens and Pollit to pull against the likes of Van Aert, Tratnik, Benoot, Laporte, and even Jorgensen is also good on flat. I would actually not be surprised if Vingegaard drop Pogi on the last mountain stages and then win the TT, takes the yellow jersey and secure his 3rd TDF victory.
He has to or someone on the Mexican supplements will put 1:38 into them in the TT